Forgotten numbers

These things happen, we forget things, or perhaps better stated, we often do not know the numbers and how they relate, as such they are gone from the mind the moment we see them. I made mention to some degree this on February 27th 2023 when I wrote ‘On the subject of failure’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/02/27/on-the-subject-of-failure/) there we see to some degree the massive failure that Russian supplies and logistics are. Not everyone is on that same page, but in all honesty, setting an army in a battle zone whilst they have no ammunition. What did you think would happen? Russian soldiers using their fingers and shouting ‘pew pew pew’? Do you think the people they attack would play along? Simple questions.

Now we see the numbers as given by one source and we see the losses that they Russian are having. When you consider the losses in Tanks, APV’s and vehicles you merely see a number and that is fair. But consider that most armies in the EU do not even have that many vehicles, and these are Russian losses, how large is the failure by Russian actually? 

You see, there is a number we aren’t seeing here, we see that the Russians lost 215,640 soldiers and between the previous report and now, they lost 980 troops. It now amounts to 400% of the TOTAL personal losses that the US had in Vietnam. But the most important number is missing and  it was another source that made me aware. Russia has so far lost 11 generals. That number will not be sinking in, I get that. There are armies that do not have that many generals, but that is not the important part. A general is more than merely a chief officer. Most armies employ some kind of higher tactical education (like the Dutch: HKS). When they pass this they can go beyond Colonel and become General. These people have had decades of experience putting out internal fires, setting bases in the same settings and educating their colonels to be more proficient. Pretty much EVERY army has that setting. And we would all get it, The Russian Army will have plenty of generals. Especially when the combined armies account for millions, there will be over 1100 generals. When it is merely one it seems petty, but there is a connected setting, one of them doesn’t get there easily (or at least they should not be getting there easily). And when you lose one it takes time for all this to get up to speed on a lot of things. Now with 11 lost the game changes. Just like sending soldiers into a war zone without ammunition. It pretty much becomes a turkey shot (for the Ukrainians). And that makes the Russian losses a lot bigger and it also explains why the counter offensive for Ukraine is so successful. Whatever is left cannot get the whole stage in focus and the losses are adding up. You see, it is not merely the UAV’s, the planes or the helicopters. With 2 out of 3 you also lose a pilot and that is all BEFORE you start realising the price tag of such losses. Soon Russia must choose between a solitary drone strategy or taking forces out of other areas and that could have larger long term implications. 

No matter how Russia wants to spin this, the clear setting is that with a massive lack of logistics and supply systems as well as losing this much of its highest echelon of officers, the outcome will be that Russia can only go from loss to loss. That was seen less than an hour ago when the Ukraine liberated a fifth village. In addition to that Russia is now seeking direct control over the Wagner group. Apparently the cook wasn’t hacking it. In that case you will see a more dangerous setting. I for one have never seen any successful setting where mercenaries and soldiers worked correctly together and with a lacking general this gets nasty real quick, implying that civilians will be in a lot more danger soon enough and that is not good.

Try to enjoy the day.