Tag Archives: Russia

The needy, the greedy and Dopey

Yes, a reference if ever there was one. Yet in the stage of an article that was the thought that hit me a second later. The article came from the Guardian titled ‘Fossil fuel firms ‘have humanity by the throat’, says UN head in blistering attack’. The article (at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/17/fossil-fuel-firms-un-head-antonio-guterres-blistering-attack) gives us all kinds of ‘information’ And we pause when we see “Fossil fuel companies and the banks that finance them “have humanity by the throat”, the UN secretary general has said, in a “blistering” attack on the industry and its backers, who are pulling in record profits amid energy prices sent soaring by the Ukraine war.” Yet the truth is not really that profound, is it? We can blame the oil dealers, but the truth of the matter is that for well over 20 years governments were dragging its heels in the investment that was essential for their nation, The US, the UK, Commonwealth nations, EU nations. None of them are without blame. And as such United Tony goes on a ramble of blaming. And with “They exploited precisely the same scandalous tactics as big tobacco decades before. Like tobacco interests, fossil fuel interests and their financial accomplices must not escape responsibility.” And where were the governments? Filling their pockets on that taxation. But that is something we do not get to see either is it? For centuries the world created a commodities environment and that should have stopped 30 years ago, or should have been deflated 30 years ago and now that the hole is deeper than one thought the blame game starts and the pointing fingers commences in earnest, but if you want to see the guilty party you only need to look into a mirror. 

And in the USA, where we see average diesel prices at $5.798. In November 2020 is was $2.462, in May 2008 it was $4.723, In June 1996 is was $1.179. This was a volatile market to begin with, there were clear warnings in 2008, which was 14 years ago and the 12 years before that there were more indicators. So where was the United Nations then? Where were the politicians then? So the tantrum the Guardian is giving us sounds nice, but the lack of actions is overwhelming as such we could go with the blame on ‘fossil fuel producers and financiers’ yet in all this where were the politicians, where was the media? The same media that shorted an EEA report that CLEARLY showed that 50% of ALL pollution was created by 147 facilities and I illuminated that in earlier articles, where was the Guardian at that point where its reporter was eager to blame all those jet owners? 

As such United Tony should get contemplate a decent grip on reality. 

So whilst we now see “The Guardian understands Guterres has been incensed by the recent behaviour of fossil fuel companies, which have been reaping a bonanza from energy prices sent soaring by the Ukraine war. Much of these bumper profits are likely to be invested in fresh exploration and expansion of fossil fuel resources.” All this with an earlier jab towards Saudi Arabia and the ‘need’ for President Biden to go there. Yes, there is a splinter of truth there, but the larger issues is that oil is a commodity, one many do not have and lets face it. The top three are United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. So if the US is one of the three top producers, why does it need Saudi oil? Did anyone consider THAT part of the equation? The US should have limited fossil requirements decades ago, but did they? So why is United Tony ignoring that part of the equation? And then we see the political ‘outrage’ with headlines like ‘Biden Was Always Going to Need Saudi Arabia’ and “Why Biden Needs Saudi Arabia: to produce oil and deter Iran” yet the simple truth is that Saudi Arabia needs to do what is best for Saudi Arabia and the US needs to produce more oil, or set the stage that less oil is required a simple setting that was out in the open for decades. Yet we also see a lack of actions from the United Nations and United Tony to set a clear agenda to LIMIT the need for oil. We see a lot of noise and we saw that for the longest of times, but how much ACTUAL actions were taken? Consider that one of the top three nations is appealing to Saudi Arabia to produce more. We get that he is not going to Moscow, we get that his actions are limited but this is a train-wreck from beginning to end. And the United Nations are a mere sample of Mukimono on the diner table and we need to realise this. 

So when we see “Fossil fuel firms ‘have humanity by the throat’” we want to blame, but who can we blame but our own reflection? So when people ask me ‘What did you do?’ I can say “I never bothered with a drivers license, I never owned a car. I walked nearly every day to and from public transportation” and in over half a century I only desperately needed a car LESS than a dozen times and they nearly all were part of moving day actions. Who else can make that claim? Yes, some call me Dopey for not having a car. Yet I saw people requiring $80 a week just to park the bloody thing, so who is the Dopey? Them or me?

Dependence on oil is a bad thing, but not addressing that need is worse. The politicians and people are mere junkies for the black goo. They can alter the language and give excuses but that is what a junkie does and those who wanted a solution found another way, so which nations have another solution? Yes, I reckon you will not be able to find one, even as New Zealand might be the closest to being one, it is in the same goo, just not as deep as all the other nations. 

It would have been nice for António Guterres (United Tony) to address the needy (US) the greedy (the political players) and tell the Dopey’s (the people) that the first step in addressing this problem is admitting to yourself in the mirror that you have one. Because the people are just as much to blame as anyone else. If you want to make claim that you are not the problem then leave your car at home for a week, for one week do without it. You will be surprised how many excuses you can come up with to grab the car, just like a junkie does. I feel fine, I have been without a car for half a century. So from the time we saw the Morris Marina until the Maruti Swift, I never had any of them. I get that there are times that a car is essential, we all get that, but I throw back at you that this year alone there are 1.446 billion cars, in 1970 the world had 200,000,000 cars. Over 50 years we saw a 723% growth of cars and some are essential, I get that, but 723%? We are all part of that problem, we drove the commodity of oil into the stratosphere and we are too scared (or cowardly) to admit that and the oil producing nations are having a great day, the Ukrainian war is merely an excuse. You see, 50% of that war (Russia) has its own supply and they have plenty. But that part is equally not illuminated. Why is that?

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A royal nuisance

The day started so nice. I was about to give more IP to the world and then Vladimir Putin decided to play to play the Russian megalomaniac on the dramatic chords of Ivan the terrible. So I decided to have a little fun of my own. The Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/putin-compares-himself-to-peter-the-great-in-quest-to-take-back-russian-lands) where we are given “Vladimir Putin has compared himself to the 18th-century Russian tsar Peter the Great, drawing a parallel between what he portrayed as their twin historic quests to win back Russian lands.” Really? Perhaps he does not remember Peter (or Pjotr as we called him) in a town called Schiedam (Netherlands) he learned shipping there and lets be honest, he learned well. That needs to be said upfront. But he learned from the likes of me and now it is my turn. It started this on February 27th 2022 where I introduced the Kraken Torpedo. In the mean time I have come up with a launching system that can drop it with canister and all from a plane, we merely need to know where it is and that technology already exists. 64 Kraken torpedo’s to counter the 64 submarines the Russian navy has and that is all they have. You see the Kraken is guided but does not explode. It dives to the depth and approaches the submarine, two rings with a glue that is a mix of the adhesiveness of a gecko and a Barnacle. The ring attaches to the submarine and then something happens. The front ring grows making the torpedo stand out. At that point the cables (3-4) having a hook releases and as the submarine moves at some point the hook gets to the propeller and thats when chaos kicks in. In seconds the propeller take in the cables like an Italian devours spaghetti. And when the cable ends the propeller rips up the torpedo and the inner core comes out. Racing to the propeller the sticky end of this torpedo hits the end full on and the sticky part will be all over the rudders locking them in place. The sticky part will get on the shaft making propulsion harder and harder and there is no getting out of that mess without months in dry-dock. There are still a few dings, dangs and Knicks to work out. But a simple method to incapacitate a submarine (64 times), so where is Pjotr now? Dead like all the others and after the Ukraine failures, this simple solution ends the madness of Putin the not so great. I wanted peace and quiet. 

So now the score is 

Lawlordtobe – D.A.R.P.A. 2-0 (aka nil, zip, nada)

So here is the idea, D.A.R.P.A gets Amazon to buy my IP (so they can get the Amazon Military bonus and I can retire) and they get this idea for free (and I’ll throw in my stealth system to sink the Iranian navy in there). Basically it would be a freebee for DARPA, but I did give my idea of sinking Iranians to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. You see, inaction and Iran does not sit well with me and you guys have been too inactive when it came to Iran. Oh and there is a crazy thought. That idea might work on the Russians too. Consider a place like Arkhangelsk harbour being inaccessible for up to a year or two, where would their navy refuel? 

As such one crazy person with imagination (me) got a little more done than one organisation (at 675 North Randolph St.) with the 241 employees all over the place. Two navies? I should be getting medals (as well as coffee with a toasted blueberry muffin) Let it never be known that I work for free and charity, we work for the cherished bliss of coffee!

It makes me a royal nuisance, but you know, I have to keep busy one way or another.

Have a fun day!

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What the media silences

Yes, that is again the topic of discussion. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61709782) gives us ‘Elon Musk threatens to walk away from Twitter deal’, in there we see “Mr Musk has said he believes spam and fake accounts represent a far greater share than the less than 5% of daily users that Twitter reports publicly.” The media knows this to be true, several others know this to be true, I know this to be true and one other party that we are about to be introduced to knows this to be true too.

You see, Twitter seemingly hides itself behind ‘daily users’ yet the truth is not that nice. Ever since Covid things have escalated. Anti vaxxers creating account after account, supporting each other and their fake accounts. The Ukrainian war made things worse. Russian Trolls, politicians supporting Russian needs in the Netherlands all. Connected to trolls and troll like behaviour. There we see a new player (since around 2014). It is the firm Trollrensics (at https://www.trollrensics.com) that shows actual data. And do not get fooled by the shy “His software and algorithms have helped uncover and analyse a significant number of troll networks and disinfo campaigns.” They have 8 years of data from all kinds of sources including Twitter showing millions of fake accounts. Even as I personally thought that the fake accounts are around 20%, they have numbers that indicate that these numbers are much closer to 50% and the media is steering clear. Others are steering clear. Twitter represents billions and the media loves people who have billions no matter what foundation it is on. And there we get the new stage. With ““As Twitter’s prospective owner, Mr Musk is clearly entitled to the requested data to enable him to prepare for transitioning Twitter’s business to his ownership and to facilitate his transaction financing. To do both, he must have a complete and accurate understanding of the very core of Twitter’s business model – its active user base,” lawyer Mike Ringler wrote in the letter.” We get to see the other side. Twitter hopes for $45,000,000,000 for a 50% population, so in what universe will an intelligent person pay twice the price? In what universe will any person pay for fake data, altered and weighted data? It is raw data that counts and too much comes from Russian and Chinese trolls. Too much of it come from click farms. Too much of this comes from non people. The game has for over a decade been about engagement and Twitter failed that test (miserably) and is now in a stage where they prefer to get out with a $45,000,000,000 camping voucher. Speculatively where the women are loose, the sun always shines and the booze pours uninterrupted. 

So when we see the option below, some people might get the idea. 

Below we see the assurance and under there is how these things come to play. 

The third is a random click-farm and this one might not have been used for Twitter activities, however considering that these matters have been going on since well before 2019. 

The impact is real and it is also all over Twitter. Several sources give us that most of these activities are in China and the profits are lucrative as this is not labour intensive. Twitter is keeping its doors locked and the media is not knocking on these doors, even though there is news all over the globe on click farms. So why is the media not digging deeper? Simple it is fear. The media needs Twitter and it needs Facebook and Google (who they pissed off), so they are letting Twitter be. That is how I personally see it and in all the settings Elon Musk is correct and he is a lot more intelligent than anyone gives him credit for. He has seen what Twitter is, what Twitter can be and he is willing to pay a fair price and that goes against the grain of its board of directors who are all about ‘daily users’ all whilst some sources are setting the stage that well over 40% are fake accounts. And the 5% and its ‘daily user’ label is not bringing home the bacon and as such Elon Musk and via him Mike Ringler are asking questions. Questions that people at Twitter do not want to answer. And it is important that you do not believe me, dig yourself! When we tart digging into engagement locations and time frame of certain accounts, a new timeline becomes visible, a timeline too many do not want to see, because the impact could indicate that Elon Musk could get Twitter for a mere $15,000,000,000 and that is the fear of some. OK, I get it I would not want to lose $30 billion either, but in that is it not strange that the media is not all over Twitter asking questions? They merely need to dig into the engagement line and where these engagements come from and when you see the click farm, you might realise that a location large enough for about 15 people should not house a click farm with 150-300 mobile phones. It is like being in a sweets shop wth 150 children. You wouldn’t last a minute, but one person can click on 300 phones easily enough and there is enough data, merely an unwilling media digging deeper and as we see the Twitter folly evolve more people should be catching on how the media is BS’ing us. Because this data has ben out in the open for the longest time. And even now as the BBC gives us “Texas attorney general Ken Paxton entered the debate on Monday, saying he had launched an investigation into Twitter for “potentially false reporting over its fake bot accounts”. Twitter has until 27 June to respond to his request for information.” It does not take away the stage that this has been out in the open and the media ignored a lot of this, I personally believe that they ignored it intentionally, to what end is anyone’s guess.

The fact that players like Trollrensics have had data spanning years with supporting evidence makes the acts of the media even more debatable, but that might merely be my view on the matter.

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An apolitical setting

That is where I find myself. It comes from the BBC with the article ‘Ukraine anger as Macron says ‘Don’t humiliate Russia’’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61691816). I see the dangers, I see the anger and I see the fears. We are given “Ukraine’s foreign minister has hit out at French President Emmanuel Macron after he said it was vital that Russia was not humiliated over its invasion”, we are also given “Mr Macron has repeatedly spoken to Mr Putin by phone in an effort to broker a ceasefire and negotiations. The French attempts to maintain a dialogue with the Kremlin leader contrast with the US and UK positions.” Now we all feel that Russia needs to lose and the Ukraine has (for the most) clearly shown that, but the defeat needs to be worse than that. I am for the most on the side of the US and UK. Yet there is visible wisdom on the side of France. You see Russia might still at some point embrace ‘In for a penny, in for a pound’ and that is the danger setting. You see, if that pound is nuclear driven there is every chance that life in France will end, as will it all over Europe, the UK and the US. But for France the cost is larger. The top exports from France will be gone forever. It will start with end of the cheese and wine clubs. This might be seem trivial, but consider that this stage will end for ALL ETERNITY French wines and French cheeses. Yes, Sweden has good cheese, Wisconsin has good cheeses, as does the Netherlands. Good wines are allegedly found in California, they are found in Italy, Greece and South Australia as well as in New Zealand. Should this go South, it will no longer be available from France. So I get the stance of France. 

If we believe that the players could be swayed by political settings, keeping one open seems imperative. Yet the setting that defeat needs to be more pronounced is also essential. I feel that it is important that after September 30th it will no longer be allowed for Russians to hold property and/or businesses outside of Russia. They cannot have anything to say in non-Russian nations. When you consider the Russian billionaires in the field and their fortunes will be destined by yachting between Dubai and Russian territory their lust for life will diminish. The family of Russians  will not be allowed schooling and life outside of Russia. When this setting is seen over generations, we see the unrest that Russia faces. It will be a situation that goes far beyond Moscow on the Hudson. As such I to a point support the setting that President Macron sets with “Mr Macron told French regional media that Russia’s leader had “isolated himself”.

“I think, and I told him, that he made a historic and fundamental error for his people, for himself and for history,” he said. “Isolating oneself is one thing, but being able to get out of it is a difficult path,” he added. Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi has aligned himself with Mr Macron, suggesting Europe wants “some credible negotiations”.” Yet I do believe that there will be the essential need for a larger cost to the Russian people. I have had some issues with the economic assault on people like Roman Abramovich, but the time has passed and they have (for the most) not spoken out loudly enough against the acts of the Russian state, its acts in Ukraine and it gets to be worse. The recent burning down of the All Saints Skete of the Holy Dormition Sviatohirsk Lavra in the city of Sviatohirsk, Donetsk region is merely one of the most visible settings and there needs to be a price to pay for all Russians. So to some degree I side with President Macron, but that setting is not sailing when we give a pass to certain people after the war. That much WW2 has shown us a little too clearly. So whatever comes next, Russia needs to realise that the invoice is due and it will be staggeringly high, higher than the one Germany was given on 28 June 1919 in Versailles. We can flicker over the treaty required that Germany pay financial reparations, disarm, lose territory, and give up all of its overseas colonies. We can also look at the simple setting that in that same treaty they were given the limitations of

  • The German army was limited to 100,000 men.
  • Conscription (forced army service) was banned; soldiers had to be volunteers.
  • Germany was not allowed armoured vehicles, submarines or aircraft.
  • The navy could build only six battleships.
  • The Rhineland became a demilitarised zone.

In Russian terms it means that they will be limited to protecting the China-Russia border, because the setting will play after this one. And controlling that much area with 6 ships? Good luck with that idea. Optionally only 5 as they lost another one in the Ukraine. As such I reckon that the Russian oligarchs will sell whatever they have and quietly live out their days in places like Dubai. It is not a given, merely a speculation.

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The missing ingredient

We all have that. It does not matter whether it is food, drinks, series, movies, games. When an ingredient is missed, it counts, especially when it is an ingredient we thought highly of. In Assassins Creed it became Ezio Auditore. In Tekken it was your favourite character, in NCIS for some it was Tony DiNozo, for Charmed it was Shannen Doherty. And movies have their own crosses to bare (or was that bear?). Anyway, these thoughts came up as we lost Fred Ward to Eternity. I saw him first in Escape from Alcatraz. I always considered hm a good actor and I enjoyed watching his works, especially tremors. But my mind suddenly set on Remo Williams: The Adventure Begins, which was shown in the Netherlands as Remo: Unarmed and Dangerous. There are a few issues with this movie. It would be the first time I saw Kate Mulgrew (Captain Janeway of the USS Voyager). It was not the greatest film made, but it had humour, which made the movie fun to watch. Joel Grey as Master of Sinanju Chiun was slightly too much over the top, but still fun. What was interesting was the plot. There we see an investigation of a corrupt weapons procurement program within the US Army. You see, that plot was new, or at least I had not seen it before and then the cogs started turning. Why does Netflix buy these rights and overhaul it into a mini series? You see a movie is nice, but 4-8 one hour episodes leading to a much larger, deeper and darker story might be a lot more rewarding in the long haul. And lets face it with the non functional weapons out there (USS Zumwalt, most of the Russian tanks) the setting for a large increased plot theme (especially when we pull the EU (Strasbourg) front and centre, the story could be appealing to a much larger audience, of course we will miss Fred Ward as a key ingredient, but nature tends to be unrelenting in these matters.

It is after-all about the weapons procurement program, and the stage where someone walks away with billions on a model that never went anywhere is a nice touch. It is even better if some elements are kept as close to the truth as possible. You see, Forbes gave us (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2019/10/30/an-82-year-old-is-suspected-of-decades-long-scam-selling-dangerous-weapons-parts-to-us-military/) ‘An 82-Year-Old Is Suspected Of Decades-Long Scam Selling Dangerous Weapons Parts To U.S. Military’, then there is ‘Metallurgist admits faking steel test results for US Navy subs’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59186655) and there is more where that came from, but consider the second part, consider the idea that the North Koreans (and Russians get a hold of that and a list of Los Angeles attack class submarines that have that steel? Now consider the play that could be made to get a submarine to a specific location and scuttle it ‘accidentally’ because the flaw was unknown. The story that some could write might keep the TV audience on the tip of their seat for the entire mini series, and the bulk of that work was already done. So as Netflix is trying to cut cost, here is an idea that they could use. But I think that they owe it to Fred Ward to have his picture somewhere (as an admiral) or as a father pic of the hero of that story, there are all kinds of ways where we can have a silent tip of the hat to a person who should not be forgotten like yesterdays news, but that applies to so many actors, I will be happy to admit that. When you know your games and consider Sir Alec Guinness as the CEO of Tri-Optimum, you know exactly what I mean. A simple setting of a series done in a few hours, Netflix get to work!

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Time as a factor

There are a few issues, I could sum them all up, but that is actually counter productive. You see, time does not adhere to anything, it is the big brother of nature, it creeps up on you and just when you think you have time left, it pulls the rug from under you and you have run out of time. The first example is ‘Energy shortage warnings across US’ the source does not matter (they are too busy using news as advertisement tokens) but the news can be found all over the field. And it is not merely the US, the EU (a Dutch example was given by me this year), the UK as well as several other places. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, Russia and a few other players, most are running out of energy options. There is a solution and Elon Musk and his energy solutions are part of the solution, I even gave a limelight on ‘Darkness through inaction’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/10/10/darkness-through-inaction/) on October 10th 2021 and even more around June 2020 with ‘Musings’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/06/18/musings/) there was more before that. I know Time, I have seen its many sides so I do know what running out of means. I reckon Elon Musk and others too. Driven to the next milepost they give the world more and more, but the governments and the greedy wannabe’s are making deals to take a sliver of that pie, willing to sink whatever saves them, because living in poverty is worse than death, so they will do whatever they can to stop the process, but now the energy shortages are adding up. We are running out of time and we might merely have 2 summer seasons left where EVERYONE can afford energy, after that all bets are off. So when we see the BS jerking around COP26, when we realise that we cannot evade oil and petrochemical solutions for now we see that those trying to bring us solutions are getting hindered by those who want to be in charge of it all, because energy becomes the next currency. Feel free to doubt this, but Saudi Aramco is now worth $2.3 trillion dollars making it the richest corporation on the planet. In less than three weeks it grew 15%, you still think I am full of it? And the Ukrainian mess does not help, as the EU and others refuse and ban Russian oil and gas, their situation bites more. A setting that was out in the open before the Russian situation started and it was out in the open. We merely ran out of time faster and I reckon that if the media does not openly expose those hindering some solutions are not given the limelight they deserve you will learn the hard way how expensive 2023-2024 will get. As I grew up I saw prices rise, but I never considered that essential needs like power, heating and food would become unaffordable. Time learned me that lesson the hard way. No matter how we look, we cannot see all elements coming for us and I like many (unless I sell my IP) will see heating, food, and electricity needs and like many others I will only be able to pay for two of them, so what will become out of reach for me? I cannot tell, it will be a roll of the dice.

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The bird and the cat

Yes, who has not heard of that setting, Tweety and the cat Sylvester, in real life duplicated by Twitter and fat cat Elon Musk. And in that setting most people will group behind the little budgie, yet is that a correct step? Reuters gives us ‘Musk says $44 bln Twitter deal on hold over fake account data’, the article (at https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-says-44-billion-twitter-deal-hold-2022-05-13/) gives us “Musk, the world’s richest person, decided to waive due diligence when he agreed to buy Twitter on April 25, in an effort to get the San Francisco-based company to accept his “best and final offer.” This could make it harder for him to argue that Twitter somehow misled him.” I have an issue here. Face accounts in Twitter have been the setting of conversation in many nations. 

Trolls, click farms, and many fake accounts, all thee to give people false impressions, to fake that some care about issues no one cares about and to create flames. The problem is that Twitter is (or should) be aware of this. The element that is overlooked is engagement, Some looked into a similar setting in Facebook and it seems nice that one can buy clicks, but when someone in Utah sees that they get 150,000 clicks and 65% are all in Sri Lanka (or some other vague location), who does it serve? The one buying the clicks, and the one facilitating the clicks and it has evolved in an actual economy. So when I see “This could make it harder for him to argue that Twitter somehow misled him”, I wonder just how delusional they are at Twitter. There is a larger need to have two books, one with all the numbers and one filtering for expected fake accounts and it is not some small issue, the numbers are deep in the double digits at present, and as far as I can tell, Twitter and its CEO Parag Agrawal should know better. And now that we see “The estimated number of spam accounts on the microblogging site has held steady below 5% since 2013, according to regulatory filings from Twitter, prompting some analysts to question why Musk was raising it now. “This 5% metric has been out for some time. He clearly would have already seen it … So it may well be more part of the strategy to lower the price,” said Susannah Streeter, an analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.” In this I wonder what (and how much) Susannah Streeter is getting paid for that view? I personally reckon that it has not been as low as 5% since 2 October 2018, when that columnist that no one gives a fuck about went missing, you know the one. And since the events Covid (2019) and The Russian invasion in Ukraine (2022) we are confronted with an even larger explosion of fake accounts. So when I see “The estimated number of spam accounts on the microblogging site has held steady below 5% since 2013”, my slightly less diplomatic view will be “Give me a fucking break please”. 

If there is one side where Parag Agrawal failed it will be to set a more realistic side to finding and creating a clear marker for fake accounts. Now, I get it, it will not be a simple setting, but I think we can agree that even Mother Goose will not tell the children in Digital Sleepy Town that 5% is realistic, no one is THAT delusional.

So when we see “prompting some analysts to question why Musk was raising it now”, the answer is rather simple, the analysts should have raised it themselves at any time since 2018 and who did? I reckon that list is rather short, perhaps non-existent.

So as some are willing to blame fat cat Sylvester, there are plenty of indications that Twitter is hiding behind some granny knowing that it was wrong from the very beginning. 

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Retail 101

One of the oldest rules of retail 101 is that you buy cheap and sell as high as possible, that is how you create profit. Add to that the simple rule that you spend less than you earn and that will make you rich on the side. These rules are not new, they were old when the crusades started (ca.1095). 

So when the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61188579) gives us ‘Oil prices have soared. Why won’t Opec bring them down?’ The setting of the American governmental license plate came to mind (Dee-You-Age). We get to see “Opec+ could also lower prices by putting more oil onto the market, which is what major importers like the US and UK want it to do.” Yes, and tarmac is made with liquorice. Opec+ has a good deal, there is a need for oil and they can set the price. The nations relying on oil have done pretty much ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to appease Saudi Arabia. We see the two largest suppliers (Russia and Saudi Arabia) but even though the US is not in that group, how much oil do they produce? 

And then we get “US President Joe Biden has repeatedly appealed to Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output, but to no avail. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also asked Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to increase production. He too was rebuffed.” In this the first part was that the US played a stupid game.

  1. A journalist no one gives a fuck about goes missing and for weeks the gossip and speculations start, even the United Nations get involved with shoddy documentation (as I personally see it). Realism tells us that something happened. Yet no one and I say again no one produced clear evidence. None gave any clear evidence of what had happened and Turkey who was playing the Iranian game made things worse. The United Nation document had issues, several players were not held to account, but that did not matter, they all got to attack the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
  2. The Houthi attacks and again the Iranian factor in this was openly ignored by the media. The non Arabic nations were not informed on houthi attacks with Iranian support on Saudi civilian targets. Coalition events were exaggerated, Houthi attacks were trivialised. 
  3. Saudi and SAMI needs were stopped and Saudi defence settings were halted. Now, the west can do that, they are allowed to. Yet in that, the Saudi’s have absolutely no need to increase production, do they? If the west was so clear on their needs, they would have increased non-oil options two decades ago, but that did not really happen, did it?

Three clear events that are now biting the hands of the US and the UK, Saudi Arabia is willing to look after its friends, but these two have not really shown to be friends, have they?

And in all this Russia is enjoying what is happening, because they do not have to do anything else but watch the cost of living in the US, UK and EU to rise to almost impossible levels. A stage we never wanted and perhaps those tea ladies from the CAAT are now in a stage where they can afford the tea, but they can no longer afford the cookies. There is an opposing side to almost everything and the simple truth of protesting without understanding what was going on is now taking its toll. But the CAAT had its limelight shots in the newspapers. It is lovely to see those pictures, just too bad that the price of that limelight ended up costing some people billions and under those conditions the UK can pretty much kiss their cheaper oil goodbye.

In all this, I wonder what the CIA did last month, what they offered the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, because the current administration has pretty much destroyed whatever options they had. As I see it, by the rules of Retail 101, the US has only one option, to open whatever weapon sales it can get without restrictions and with a full service package. I reckon that alone is required to lower the oil prices by 10%, they need a lot more, but as such the players will have to offer more and they need to realise that the loud words of ‘no oil’ and ‘end petrol needs’ were merely that, words. It will happen, there is no doubt in my mind, but I doubt I will be alive to see those days, I reckon kids who were born after 2000 will have a decent chance to see the end of a petrol based economy whilst they are still alive. I doubt that it will happen before that. In this, the entire stage of the BBC article was to some degree needed, but they should have given the people a slightly better information ring. Like the interactions of OPEC and airlines. You see over the last 15 years we added a total of 41000 additional flights a day, why? There is also a lack of the American numbers, how much oil do they produce and why can they not produce more? Two simple elements in this equation missing, why is that? 

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At times I hate being right

To get that we have to take a trip into the past. To February 5th 2021. It was the day I wrote ‘Not a good thing’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/02/05/not-a-good-thing/). In the article I wrote about the energy shortage that certain players were certain to face. I also made reference to ‘Trillion Dollar Musk’ a story written on December 3rd 2020 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/12/03/trillion-dollar-musk/). The important reference is “the UK has an increasing need for Scandinavian power and soon it cannot be met. I reckon that in the next 2-3 years that shortage will be close to systemic all over the EU”, with the added “now that the stage is here, Eon Musk has a massive opportunity and soon enough it will grow into Europe as well, I wonder who will cash in before the half baked solutions stir their ugly heads. Because the impact of that stage is not a good thing.” And now that we get the Dutch NOS making reference to “Companies that want to establish or expand, often cannot meet their energy needs. This applies, for example, to Royal Smilde Bakery in Edam, a retail company in bake-off products. The company cannot run at full capacity. “And that means we are not at the production capacity that the market demands,” says Andries Tuinenga. The grid operator has imposed a maximum on the company that may not be exceeded. And then the peak months are yet to come.” Now this setting comes early because of the Russian gas situation, but it gives a larger stage, the shortage is here now, consider the Netherlands going towards summer and if summer bites (a realistic chance) we see a nation with millions of AC units and no power to fuel them all. That is a realistic future this year and for two years they could have opted for discussions with Elon Musk and all his energy solutions but how many governments exactly have started this discussion? 

A stage I saw coming two years ago, so why isn’t anyone else? And the small laughable story by BBC Technology that gives us ‘Energy supplier counts cost of devices on standby’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-61235367) does not cut the mustard as I see it. Lets be clear, they are not wrong, but the setting is way too late for that. With the giggle moment supplied through “households would save around £55 per year by switching off all their devices when not in use. The organisation, which promotes sustainability and energy efficiency, did not give exact details of how it came to this figure.” I get it if everyone does that you do save, but at what cost? Larger changes have been needed for well over a year and the UK (EU too) are not ready. The age of ACDC is coming (hah, me making a funny yet again) and the saving will not operate the millions of households that want to enjoy the AC they have no matter how much DC it requires. I stated two years ago that energy changes were becoming essential, but it seems that governments has ego and ostrich issues. It seems that they all were willing to attack Elon Musk and too little of them would be ready to engage with him in serious conversation. Now that time is up they might all want him at the same time, as such it becomes a problem Anyway, should Elon Musk buy my IP, they get added hardship, because I can see that there are options (not big ones) to connect what I have to domotics and smart grids. So connect my IP to a smart grid and collect energy numbers from all the domotics around it. It is not what I had in mind, but it could work and the value of my IP goes up, so what do I care. 

The problem is that GOVERNMENTS should have been on this page in 2018, but are they? The fact that we see shortages now is not merely the impact of Russian choices, it was ALWAYS going to happen in this way, they merely got to this point faster in this way. So who will you blame? Will you have another go at Elon Musk, or will you start asking YOUR government for ignoring the painfully obvious for well over a year now?

I will let you decide. Have a really nice sunny not air-conditioned day today.

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Blackmail as premeditation

These is a side to everything. Peace, War and everything in-between is in the eye of the beholder, in the wake of political needs some will say, but that too is a side of a mere point of view. So when I saw the Bloomberg article (at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-28/manchester-city-s-owner-helps-usher-more-russian-tycoons-to-uae) titled ‘Manchester City’s Owner Helps Usher More Russian Tycoons to UAE’ we see the side that many shy away from. It starts with “Sheikh Mansour also has a behind-the-scenes role that’s become increasingly important in recent months: Helping manage relationships with wealthy Russians looking to move money into the UAE, according to several people familiar with Abu Dhabi’s engagement with Russians, who requested anonymity as the information isn’t public.” With the added “Even as the U.S., EU and other countries have blitzed Russia with thousands of new financial restrictions, making it the world’s most-sanctioned nation, the UAE hasn’t imposed any. Officials in the Middle Eastern nation have taken the stance that Abu Dhabi respects international law but isn’t required to follow measures implemented by specific countries and that the UAE has the right to adopt its own policies, several people familiar with their thinking said.” It is supported by “That approach, though, has fuelled concern among some Western officials who are worried about holes in their own sanctions programs. Earlier this month, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo voiced Washington’s worries about Russian tycoons moving assets to the UAE in a call with UAE officials, two people with knowledge of the discussions said”. You see, the setting is even more different from what we see. You see, some places cannot be touched, some ships are unattainable and other material matters cannot be touched as the owners identities are hidden from view. There are two parts in all this. 

In the first there is the matter of his highness Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan. He is from the UAE, he does what is best for the UAE, a Emiratian as it were (is that the right pronunciation?) The larger setting is not what he does, it is that there is no war with Russia in the UAE, more important, the blackmail grip on these oligarchs is not entirely legal. Lets look at the clear evidence. These oligarchs are Russians, they therefor embraced friendships with the ruler of that place (Vladimir Putin), this was never a crime. Then the Ukrainian issues started and the oligarchs were split in two teams (as Roman Arkadyevich Abramovich most likely would say) those who openly support Putin and those who do not. Take Roman Arkadyevich Abramovich he is also a philanthropist and the former owned of Chelsea FC (they might be the same). So are the acts against him valid? Consider what he did in the BEGINNING of the war. It casts a shadow over the acts against the oligarchs. And the demented statement by President Biden “We’re going to seize their yachts, their luxury homes, and other ill-begotten gains”, really? What laws were broken, what prosecution was not correctly made? I do not care either way, but there are laws and yes, Russia has to pay for EVERY kopek of damage that they created in Ukraine. But should the oligarchs? Perhaps those in Russia, but those abroad? Those who openly supported Putin’s war in Ukraine perhaps, the rest? I feel uncertain. 

And when we reconsider “some Western officials who are worried about holes in their own sanctions programs” we see the folly of their taxation laws, the holes are large enough to park a 500 feet yacht in. Failure after failure and the entire emotional setting does not help any, mainly because the emotional setting is not a legal one and now we see that Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan has a case to present to his nation. And if this works the UAE will see another wave of long term investments. Long after the US is deserted by too many players, the UAE will hold on. Is it fair? Fair does not come into it. These oligarchs are not involved in a war, they are not involved in bombing the Ukraine. That is the Russian government, the Russian army, navy and airforce. If an oligarch is part of those, then yes, he (or she) become fair game. And should the American government object, then perhaps they can pull the papers on a place called IG Farben and certain people that were given options in the US. So how come that BASF and Siemens were allowed to continue AFTER WW2? Did they not have factories in Auschwitz? As I see it, the US does not have a billionaire problem, it has a hypocrisy problem and the refusal to overhaul tax laws is pretty much a top 3 item in American economy. As I personally see it Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan found a way to propel his nation (as a citizen), is he to blame? I do not believe that he is. Yes, some people and a lot of Ukrainians have an issue with that and I accept that the Ukrainians are not happy, they have every right to be, but laws are laws and there is a dangerous line that the west is trying to avoid. It is a dangerous line as it leads to WW3 and these nations are either fully committed or they are not. I cannot judge here, because war is a dangerous play, a World War even more so and there could be nuclear repercussions, we need to accept that and that is the red line that a lot of nations are trying to avoid. It makes perfect sense. If there is on upside to all this (the UAE) it will be that the harbour that they hand the oligarchs is also the roof that stops them from becoming a nuclear target. It could be seen by some as premeditated blackmail. Can we blame them, or blame anyone for having that thought? The UAE must do what is best for the UAE and as I see it, that is exactly what Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan seems to be doing.

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