Tag Archives: India

Why is an official like a quilt?

The answer is simple, they both cover up. And it is this part that is the larger stage. The Reuters article reports mere hours ago in the article ‘India reports 3,998 COVID deaths after state corrects its data’ (at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india/india-reports-3998-covid-deaths-after-state-corrects-its-data-idUSKBN2ER0BF) gives us “India reported its highest death toll in a month on Wednesday – at nearly 4,000 – after its richest state reconciled its death count with 3,509 previously unreported fatalities, the health ministry said”. This is entertaining on a few levels. Most of the media passes this by, it passes this by even as I found in my article ‘The worst is yet to come’ on September 6th 2020 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/09/06/the-worst-is-yet-to-come/) where we see “In the Coronavirus numbers we see yesterday that a new number is reached, 300,474 new cases, a new height. We are only one day away from the US with 3% of its population with the Coronavirus, 50% of all cases are in the USA, Brazil and India (based on the numbers), yet there are several indicators that we aren’t even close to knowing how many cases India actually has. Even as ABC gave us last month ‘India’s biggest slum has so far nailed coronavirus. Here’s how they did it’, I am not convinced and the data is siding with me.” Which shows that I was aware of the faulty Indian numbers almost a year ago, so to see now “The ministry did not give a reason but authorities have in the past attributed other instances of deaths going unreported to administrative errors, before the mistakes are discovered and the numbers appear in official data”, yes it is nice that Reuters takes ‘unreported to administrative errors’ as read, but is not asking the deeper questions in any way of form. We get it, what is reported is what is given. But the numbers have not made sense for close to a year and others have reported on the matter and I wrote about that too, but what is the point to fighting a sickness when governments are hiding the real deal, the real impact and are optionally masking THEIR statistics. As I stated before, India might be the most visible but I doubt that they are the only one. 

So when we are treated to “Last month, the poor northern state of Bihar raised its death toll by more than 5,000 in a day when it included some unrecorded data. The sudden appearance of previously unrecorded deaths has lent weight to suspicion that India’s overall death tally is significantly more than the official figure.” And that is not all, consider that 5.000 death were unrecorded, if that is the case, the setting that 100,000 sick are unrecorded is equally a danger. When we see India at present with 31,216,337 cases whilst making the claim that 30,390,687 recovered, we see the difference should be the active cases and the dead, now consider that the active cases (as reported) are 407,139. Now consider that they are off by 100,000, do you now see that India has a much larger problem? This is not merely a case of ‘administrative errors’, I think it is a lot more and I feel certain that there are several Indian government officials trying to hide the setting that they are in over their heads. 

That part is reinforced by ABC 5 hours ago with ‘India’s COVID-19 deaths could be 10 times higher than the official toll, according to research’, the article (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-21/india-covid-deaths-could-be-in-the-millions/100310602) gives us “India’s excess deaths during the coronavirus pandemic could be a staggering 10 times the official toll, according to the most comprehensive research yet on the ravages of the virus in the country”, I personally never considered that the numbers were off by 1000%, I did it all in my head, so I must have misplaced a comma. Yet the stage is now that we see a much larger stage, a much larger impact and not just for India. In this we see a larger premise, and if I need to be the optimistic one, when we see all the anti-vaxxer protests, it is fine by me. If they get sick they will die and I can get a more decent job (until each of the other three buy my 5G IP), so one mans needs will be filled by the death of someone else. That is how the world turns, but I wonder how the world reacts to these thousands of administrative errors?

What do you think?

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Change and debate

We accept these two words, they are part of our lives. Yet when do we debate change, or change the debate we are having? Think about it, debate instills the option for change, in the same way change causes debates to start. It is a double loop, as you see below, there are numerous examples, they are all set to the same issue, A affects both, it is the start of one and the end of another. And the loop works in both directions. Blue affects red, red affects blue. We can add all the fancy labels, but in either side there are adjustments, shifts, experience, generalisations, correction, results and learnings. What we need to understand is that this is a much larger field, and to that extent I am looking at two examples.

Holy Yemeni Cricket!
On November 3rd 2018 I wrote ‘Media, call it as it is!’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/11/03/media-call-it-as-it-is/), there I added “we have seen an utter lack of larger political activities by many nations other than the USA against Iran and Hezbollah, exactly how does that add up?”, consider that this was WELL OVER two years ago, and now (11 hours ago), the BBC gives us (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57065894) ‘US warship seizes huge weapons shipment in Arabian Sea’, the article also gives us a total lack of where and direction, isn’t that interesting? OK, I get it, and I accept “the source and intended destination of the weapons were under investigation”, yet the amount of weapons is clearly enough to start WW3, it is actually better and more powerful weapons than several nations in the EU have, so you do understand that this governmental joke has gone far enough? And in all this, I reported (and some others added evidence) well over two years ago. It took THAT LONG for the media to take a larger stance, why is that? So when I see “After all the illicit cargo was removed, the dhow’s crew was questioned, provided with food and water and released” I wonder how they get better treatment than some of the victims all over the world, they were intentionally carrying truckloads of weapons, so what gives? 

Chicken Vindaloo Flambee
Yup, it is not the most eloquent title, yet consider that I have been trying to inform the people for a long time that the numbers did not add up in India. The article (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/12/20/the-rest-of-our-lives/) was called ‘The rest of our lives’, which I wrote in December 20th 2020, and even before that, and I got some abuse from others (which will always happen) and they were all in denial, they all stated that this would never happen. So now, with pride (and joy) I see that the BBC FINALLY caught up, and with ‘India’s Covid crisis: The newsroom counting the uncounted deaths’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56969086) we get to see “On the night of 16 April, the journalists drove 150km (93 miles) around Ahmedabad and visited 21 cremation grounds. There they counted body bags and pyres, examined registers, spoke to cremation workers, looked at “slips” which assigned the cause of death, and took photographs and recorded videos. They found that most of the deaths were attributed to “illness”, although the bodies were being handled under rigorous protocols. At the end of the night the team had counted more than 200 bodies. But the next day, Ahmedabad counted only 25 deaths”, it had become that bad, scientifically we can see that less than 10% is reported, so how bad had it all become? Before we go all sentimental on those poor poor politicians, remember that this level of cooperation can only happen when governments are pushing buttons. staff members in hospitals and crematoriums, the people transporting, the goods for protection, full, the list goes on and on and this scale of governmental cover up had to be massive, yet some journo’s were willing to take the hard road, yet I have always admitted that there were a few good ones. 

source: BBC

Two issues are now, less than a day ago proven that I was on the ball, that I was correct and that my insight was red flagging a lot more than anyone comprehended, even the data analysts that doubted and opposed me are not in the limelight, so if they catered to the needs of stakeholders, I am about to have a field day and I feel a large level of joy on all this. You see it also proves something I have claimed since around 1995. When those catering to the political game adjust weights and numbers so that the results match the questions, we can safely assume that someone has kept a backup just to cover themselves. I merely have to find that weak link now and I will have a great great Christmas, it might just come early this year. Over the last 8 years I compiled a nice list, I wonder how many will be found out. It will take some time, but time is one element I have currently an abundance of. 

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Data is all

There have been a few oppositions to two of the articles on India and covid I wrote in the last week. I stand by my view, but the opposition is there. For the most they are merely echoing other sources and that is fine. So let’s take another look with new sources, very credible sources.

About that island
In the far lower right, to the left of New Zealand is the island of Australia. It is a large island and had 25 million people. There SBS gave us ‘One new community COVID-19 case recorded in NSW as authorities hunt mystery source of infection’, it is the quote “Health authorities have been unable to find a link between a returned overseas traveller who harboured the same genomic sequencing as a Sydney couple who tested positive”. I do not know and there is no evidence that there is foul play afoot. So there is AT LEAST one link between the two, but there is no way to find it at present. This is a place with a mere 25,000,000 people. Now consider India with its 1,300,000,000 people. This implies (emphasis on imply) that India has at least 52 undiscovered cases, now consider the image I posted of a market in India taken last October (and below).

Now consider that at least one such a person is in such a market, this implies that tomorrow at least 50-75 will get it, after that the numbers go the wrong way really fast. It still takes time to get there, as such the dip in numbers as well as the statement “India may have Covid-19 under control by February, says top scientist” (source: Straits Times January 2, 2021). It was the obvious very debatable statement  “While there is no definitive single reason, epidemiologists and scientists believe a key factor is that dense urban centres, which were the worst affected, now have some level of community protection”, really? Community protection? Where is that now with 21,000,000 sick and 230,000 no longer living and it will get worse, but on the plus side, they will beat the USA in one event, the number of dead people, which was pretty much a given with 1.3 billion people and no lockdown. 

But it is not all bad news, as the Guardian reported “medical experts and international human rights groups, including the United Nations, have called for an immediate reversal of the Biosecurity Act determination, I am on the fence in this case, yet in the end thousands more will needlessly die, so rent prices in Mumbai might go down a twitch.

The problem is that too many cases go undetected, there was news earlier this year that Dutch scientists had found the the quick tests gives a false negative in 40% of the cases, at what point will you realise that a much larger danger exists? There is a larger problem, the Indian government did not act when they could and they want us now to take up the slack. It is hard to chastise them as a nation with 1.3 billion will have unique issues with a situation like this, I do not oppose that, but there is months of data showing that the entire situation was mis managed, and some excuse like “now have some level of community protection” does not hold water in any way or shape. And when we are given a truck load of emotional responses like “Vamshi is furious that the information he provided about his mother’s condition was enough for his exit exemption but not enough for her to be allowed to travel to Australia to stay with them”, I wonder if they needed a bloody slide ruler to work out the numbers. This disease KILLS! It is that simple and containment is a first need for EVERY government. Data is all and it shows a picture that is not so nice, and it will not be resolved in India quickly. Any message that a short time and a short course towards any solution is found is non existent. We need to avoid the media with BS emotional sides, we need to rely on the cold numbers and the ones India are giving us do not add up, yet the media and several others are not questioning that part. In this the NPR (at https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/04/30/992451165/india-is-counting-thousands-of-daily-covid-deaths-how-many-is-it-missing) is giving us ““There’s a shortage of coronavirus tests. Nobody’s getting tested! So the government’s numbers for our district are totally wrong,” he told NPR on a crackly phone line from his village. “If you’re able to get tested, results come after five days.””, so how come NPR is nearly the only one who gives us some of the goods? It does not mean that NPR is the more reliable source, but it does explain a much larger part of the problem, when numbers are delayed and ‘mis-categorised’ we will unlikely ever know what is the true down low of India and the covid numbers. 

Data is all, but when that data is (I expect) intentionally ‘adjusted’, we will not know what the actual situation in India is and in that respect, shutting down ALL transport to and from India might be close to the only option left. Yes, the UN will object but will not be able to cater to the time needs of the dangers, but then they might also need to wrote another essay for Jeff Bezos, so their time will be used no matter how they sail. 

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The Kipling manouver

Yes, it is about India, and at this moment a certain counter is at 39,887. So whilst I am telling you this story, based on all kinds of data, I will be preparing the next setting and let havoc rule. The Indian stage is set to Rudyard Kipling, in this that I look at Mine Own People, is that not the Indian station they face? Whilst the BBC gives us ‘India passes 20 million cases amid oxygen shortage’, we will be confronted with all kinds of data and we do get part of the goods with “testing numbers have dipped as well, sparking fears that India’s true caseload is far higher. Case numbers, however, have been consistently falling in Maharashtra state, which had driven the second wave since early April”, I personally believe that the second wave is getting too much credit and the first wave was ignored to a too large a degree. As we see here ‘fears that India’s true caseload is far higher’, I believe that to be a much larger truth. Even as we are given “fuelled by lax safety protocols and massive public festivals and election rallies, has also overwhelmed its hospitals” we only see a partial truth. The image that world-o-meter gives us might spark your view.

There is no real data proving my thoughts, but I find the data from January 1st to March 31st debatable. I added pictures of Indian market places from last October and other images as well are not encouraging. There is in my mind no acceptable version that this data is correct, I believe and accept that the second wave is more contagious, but the curve we see here does not match any acceptable infection curve. The weird part is that the media blatantly accepts whatever is handed to them and why is that? 

Could I be wrong?
Yes, off course I can be wrong, I am also debating whether I am right, but consider the curve we see, consider the images we saw, consider the numbers that some gave us, they do not add up. Whilst we saw the numbers in Germany, Spain, UK and US, no one is questioning them from a place with 1.3 billion people. No one is wondering how these numbers whilst there is no lockdown stayed in check. Well, if you do not measure, if you have no data, you basically have nothing to report. We now see “But experts say India’s Covid death toll is vastly under-reported as official tallies don’t appear to match what people are witnessing on the ground”, a setting I expected already 6 months ago and now governments are all ‘rising’ to the underreported occasion. So as we get “Many states have introduced restrictions, from full lockdowns to night curfews. The northern state of Bihar, which has been adding about 13,000 daily cases in recent days, is the latest to announce a full lockdown”, is anyone noticing ‘introduced restrictions’? A setting the rest of the world pushed towards a year ago, on the other hand, those American idiots that are all making ‘anti-lockdown’ complaint, they can look at India and die the same way. They can look at the death numbers and see what is possible in the US, on the positive side, if the US gets another 200K fatalities there would be less unemployment, the US would have a better fitting budget and the people might overall end up being a lot more clever, not good news for the Republicans, but there is always one party crying, that is the way to donut rolls.

Why being blunt?
That is easy to answer, we tried diplomacy and euphemisms for way too long and the world I running out of time, nature would love it if the population declines at least another 23%, but they might not get that part either. In all this we might take notice of “it’s also true that daily cases have fallen, on average, in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, all hotspot states”, yet I wonder how those numbers could be trusted. Even as SBS reported with ‘Calls for nationwide lockdown as India surpasses 20 million COVID-19 cases’, we need to wonder why a national lockdown has not been in place for a long time. And even as the media is making ‘grim’ callings, now, we see that there are 20,000,000 infections and it might seem lower than the US, yet with a population 500% of the US and only 50% of the infections that the US has, the numbers do not add up, especially when you consider that (regardless of those opposing lockdowns) the US at least had some and had some social distancing demands, a side that India is pretty much unable to do, the population pressure is that high. 

The quote “The other issue, experts say, is insufficient testing. While Uttar Pradesh, one of the worst-affected states, has recorded no drop in testing figures, it’s testing far less than other states” is pretty much on the nose, the ‘insufficient testing’ is an issue for pretty much all India and that was pretty visible 6 months ago, so why is everyone pussyfooting around India? 

People all screaming the need for responsibility and no one seems to be taking it. And even as we are told that shortages will last for months, without a proper lockdown scenario the numbers will continue to rise and even when it slows down the numbers will continue for a long time to come. As I see it, no matter how it turns, until India receives well over 2.5 billion doses of a vaccine, there is every chance that Covid-19 will be present in India when we are well into 2023, a setting the Indian government will loudly deny and when that evidence comes out in 2023, one person takes the blame, falls onto their sword and the Indian government will make new arrangements. 

What a nice speculated prediction, isn’t it?

Have a great day.

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Between the lines

Yup it happens, it happens to most of us. It seems I got a little bit too clever for a lot of people. In the first there were the accusations of me being too violent, all those poor hackers that I was willing to put to death. Well, that is debatable but what was between the lines was ignored by way too many people. 

I stated in yesterday’s blog “Hades assures me it is a door of change and opportunity”, that was the trigger. You see, the article is about escalations. As Trump is acquitted a foundation of change is almost guaranteed. I state that through “that also opens the door of opportunity”, as Americans allowed for acquittal of the events that happened and fuelled an attack on the US Capitol building, others will now see it as an opportunity to allow for more and optionally equal extreme events. There is not an ‘if’ it will happen, it will son enough become a ‘where and when’ setting. A station of escalation and denial. As USA Today gave us 2 weeks ago “Capitol riot inquiry grows to 400 suspects; feds expect to bring sedition charges ‘very soon’”, do you actually think and believe that pushing that NYC realtor out of the door at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, D.C. 20500 U.S. will stop all this? Some of these people have created a platform and they like the limelight. In all this the extremists are merely the tip of the iceberg, now that others are seeing that they can get away with things, more will happen, the US will face more and more of these issues until something drastic is done and there is every indication that their opponents (Russia and China) will see this as an opportunity too, Russia first and the anti-China rhetoric that Donald Trump pushed will keep them pushing for a several indiscrete humiliating situations. I have no idea how this will be done, but if they can kill economic options for America, they will. This stands lose from the Chengdu deal that I hope to facilitate in certain places, the US decided not to deliver, and there are other 5G opportunities all over Europe, now that Huawei is making massive waves in Saudi Arabia and showing how much faster they are than the US (well over 700% faster), some European players are catching on. It is (for some) nice to see ‘Bumble: Female-founded dating app tops $13bn in market debut’ (source BBC), yet when these developers see that they are running on a mere 14% of what is possible, what do you think will happen when other avenues open up for these developers? I saw those changes coming 2 years ago. So what do you think will happen when these developers are in a state where they are either limited by technology or in a place where they have the start of a larger platform? At present Chinese developers have that much of a lead upcoming and the sooner some players realise that they are no longer part of the equation, the sooner they will consider that it is not now, nor ever part of their wallet, when the developers figure things out, the field changes and Europe can only hope that they can facilitate fast enough, before other players (consider India) become the larger player, and that is no idle boast, there is at present a larger concern that Huawei will get both Pakistan and India, when they do China will have optional starts in other areas as well. 

A change of staged players will happen, it will happen when those who need their version of a gravy train are in the largest need for it to continue, optionally delaying change, and there the issue becomes a much larger concern, the Trumpism players will see it as an optional platform to gain visibility, slowing everything down. A stage of Change and opportunity, delusional opportunity as some see it, but a stage that will delay too many players for too long and some people when they see their idea raising $13,000,000,000 they will not care where they are, they will go where their IP grows the fastest and the furthest. And every developer that moves will start the process of 3-8 developers making a similar move, a stage I predicted in 2018. Now that it is happening, playing politics is a dangerous stage, now that some actions are getting acquitted we will see repetitive business all over the field, even if they are unsuccessful they will try and slow too many parts that should not be slowing down, that is the nature of things.

It was all between the lines, I have been staying this in several articles all over the last 2 years in that stage the players better worry if the delayed stage will allow them to continue.

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WYSIWYS

We have a stage where what you see is what you speculate. I agree and I do not deny it, but the numbers (as I have stated over and over again) are wrong. As such, the COVID mess will get a hell of a lot worse this year. We will get governmental people spouting yaba-yaba, yet the stage is there and the damage is soon coming. For this, we merely have to look to the Corona site (at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/), this site has been giving us numbers since the beginning, they are not starting. They report on the numbers given to them and that is where the shoes become too tight for dancing. 

You see, to consider my point of view we can use the Netherlands with 17 million people and the numbers reflect that one in 20 wither had or has the coronavirus. Then we go to number one, the United States where 25% of all global cases  had or has that flu. For them it boils down to roughy 7% of the population. Now consider India where only 10 million in 1,300 million, a mere 10% of America. There is no way that this adds up, it is what I call the left view, if you do not mention it, it might go away, well it does not and it will not.

The problem is that India could fester into a real global problem and the news is silent on that. In all this I mention the infected, not the mortality rate, because that will become a rather worse setting and a much more complex one, as such I merely focus on the infected. 

All this is important, it is important because we get dragged into these lockdowns, and I am not against lockdowns when it serves a purpose. But India is a much larger stage. You see, what nations have a restriction with people from India? In addition to that, when we consider the Dutch epidemiologist Frits Roosendaal who gave us that there is a 40% chance on a false negative. (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/12/28/the-lull-of-writing/), at The Lull of writing.

Now, we do not like the word ‘false’ I get that and a false positive is one thing, but a false negative? The infected can travel and infect others and we are left in the dark.

Most governments are seemingly IGNORING this. I get the setting that they want to check whether the findings are supported or not. They might even be set to oppose it, that is fair if there is a valid reason (the Dutch LUMC is on the same quality as John Hopkins, so good luck with that). The setting is ignoring a dangerous situation making things worse. I did find something (at https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0242958), there we are given “The collected evidence has several limitations, including risk of bias issues, high heterogeneity, and concerns about its applicability. Nonetheless, our findings reinforce the need for repeated testing in patients with suspicion of SARS-Cov-2 infection given that up to 54% of COVID-19 patients may have an initial false-negative RT-PCR (very low certainty of evidence)”, and 54% amounts to one in two persons, this is bad, this is really really bad and the media and governments seemingly intentionally ignoring these findings is making matters worse. 

Most nations have ignored the stage to shut down all airports, they happily spread the disease from nation to nation and in this India might be ten times worse than the Mary Mallon (Typhoid Mary) ever was, but do not fear, most of us will get to learn that lesson in 2021.  

We do not need a media that hides things from us, we need one that genuinely informs us and this is the second source I found which was less than a month old, when I started seeking the information, I had access to the original report in 10 minutes, so either I am a lot more intelligent than any media person, or someone is telling them to hide facts, and when exactly was that EVER a good idea?

WYSIWYS – What You See Is What You Speculate. I am not saying it is the greatest setting, but I am doing it based on two academic pieces, two sources of scientific origin, can you do better?

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Ego or lives?

There is a setting you are perhaps uncomfortable with, but that is what I do, put the uncomfortable in the limelight, but before I do that, I need to take a step back and explain how we got there. 

Piece One
In the first part we see (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846), ‘New coronavirus variant: What do we know?’, this is important, because it is what we know that brings light in the darkness. So we see “All the work is at an early stage, contains huge uncertainties and a long list of unanswered questions”, this is fact, and the setting of ‘uncertainties’ does not help any. There is also “The government’s advisers on new infections now say they have “high” confidence that it is more able to transmit than other variants”, it is seemingly less of a fact, yet we see that this new strain is now in Denmark, Australia, the Netherlands, Belgium and Italy. So as we see countries closing their borders to the UK, we also see a secondary reaction and that is the puzzle of today.

Piece Two
So as we are told ‘Coronavirus: EU urges countries to lift UK travel bans’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55404087), why is that? I am not happy on any travel ban, yet the new strain is a fact, there is a lot we do not know and w do not even know (officially) whether this strain is more deadly, which was counter argued from the moment the new version was seen, and I am fine with a little good news. Yet do these countries have a responsibility to their own citizens? Then we get “It also said transport staff in the EU, such as lorry drivers, should be exempt from travel restrictions and mandatory testing”, yes because lorry drivers never stop for coffee and infect more people around them. From my point of view it seems that the people in Strasbourg are a little dim on the dangers of an infectious disease. Now, I have advocated the opposite and I have advocated the lack of mortality to a larger degree, I stand on that, but to see some flaunt dangers on what might be regarded as the expression of ego is another matter. As such, when I see “more than 50 countries around the world from India, to Iran, to Canada have suspended flights from the UK”, I get it, people need to be safe and that applies to any country, and when I am told ‘a long list of unanswered questions’, the setting of “EU urges countries to lift UK travel bans” makes way too little sense. 

A stage that needs to be smothered, not invigorated and in all this I wonder what their ego’s are telling them and why we are not telling those politicians to keep their ego’s in check UNTIL there are actual answers to all the unanswered questions. Or perhaps they need reminding on the setting that the US has 330,000 dead people a lot of them due to inactions and people not taking the entire Coronavirus setting serious enough. Oh and that is ONE country that has 20% of all the global fatalities, perhaps that makes a little more sense to them. I get it, to some degree there is an overreaction, but that does not take away basic national responsibilities that any nations has to its citizens, and opening borders whilst we see ‘a long list of unanswered questions’ does not make sense to me, but that might just be me.

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The rest of our lives

Yes, we all look towards the rest of our lives, yet how much of it is left? There is every indication that is is a little less than we expect it to be. I was looking forward to write more on the TV series my mind created (Keno Diastima), I was adding a little more science to it all, science makes fiction easier to swallow for the sceptical among us and I like plenty of science with my fiction, so there.

Yet, as I was brooding on this, I saw the Coronavirus messages from all Directions. The Netherlands is banning all flights from the UK, a part of Sydney now has a larger problem and the news keeps on coming in, I especially ‘liked’ ‘Covid: WHO in ‘close contact’ with UK over new variant’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-55382212), there we see “The new variant is spreading more rapidly than the original version, but is not believed to be more deadly”, it is the application of ‘is not believed’, which basically implies that they do not know and that is fine, we accept that not all answers are available at point zero. Yet, who considered the impact on these to approved vaccines? Is vaccine one good enough to fight off and prevent version 2? What will happen when there are more mutations? And the largest issue the media and most people ignore is the 1% speculation. In June (6 months ago) we could see a global increase of 1% over 3 million cases, which is 30,000. In September the number was 7 million, in three months, the number had doubled, as such we come to a stage of 70,000 new cases. Day (globally), now the total number number is 76,635,408, 10 times of what there was three months ago and it is time to button down the hatches, because the 1% rule gives us 766,000 cases a day (globally) and all whilst some sources make claim that in India there is a 60% setting of people with the Coronavirus, 60% of 1.35 billion, a number we do not see anywhere, making optionally the source unreliable, yet I have had my concerns with the Indian numbers for the longest time. You merely need to see actual footage on the population pressure in the Mumbai region alone to see that question mark. The reported figure are present is at 10,031,659, When w apply the 1% rule we see 13,500,000 a day, and so far that number has been exceeded on a global stage by nearly every country, so not in India? Consider the population:

If even one person in this crowd has the Coronavirus, how many will have it tomorrow? That is the ignored part, partially because most non-Indian people have no idea just how populated India is and that is the larger danger, we tend to ignore what we do not know and in this case it is a dangerous setting to have. And this is not some sought special picture, Google Search can give you well over 100 images like it, all from different areas of India. 

As such, when you contemplate the rest of your life, did you consider your life (if you have any left) after the coronavirus? The numbers are in my favour here. The 1% rule was surpassed by a lot over the last 6 months. We might lockdown everything, but it takes one stupid person to ignore this and quickly visit a friend, and the scared ones do it more quickly than any other. 

At present the BBC (at best) give us “There is no clear-cut evidence the new variant of coronavirus – which has been detected in south-east England – is able to transmit more easily, cause more serious symptoms or render the vaccine useless”, which is fair enough, more importantly, we also do not know what we do not know, this sounds complex, but variants are tricky bastards and there are no real answers until a laboratory have positively analysed the mutations, this is fair (at https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55312505), but the number one scare for governments is “or render the vaccine useless”, several players paid billions for the vaccine, so the term ‘useless’ is one they do not need to hear, but in the end, we simply do not know. Neither do we know whether the vaccine to strain one will also lower the power of strain 2, 3 and optionally 4. Anyone who believes that this ends today is paving the road to hell, all on their own.

In this the West Australian had the funniest setting for all this, they give us today “Coronavirus crisis: WA Premier Mark McGowan says hard border with NSW needed to ‘save our Christmas’”, yes because saving Christmas trumps the need to keep our lives safe, that made perfect sense and if you are forced to self-isolate celebrating Christmas is really topping your chart, isn’t it?

Well, whatever you do, you will have the rest of your life contemplating it, and should you die tomorrow, then I hope you resolved whatever you were brooding about. #Oversimplification

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After the fact

We have all heard the setting, when we set the new premise after the fact. Most will remember the average male response to the option of sex before marriage “Maybe I’ll marry you tomorrow”, and we then congratulate ourselves, as we got some. Some have a slightly altered versions and especially in the Netherlands no one has forgotten some of the songs from the era of the VoC, especially when sharks were thwarted and the other vessel had silver. But that one too did not end nicely for the sailor, he was also promised the daughter of the captain, the other vessel was sunk, but the sailor never made it. After the fact is in some cases brilliant, but is it? That is the question we see when we consider ‘Urgently Waive Intellectual Property Rules for Vaccine’, (at  https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/12/10/urgently-waive-intellectual-property-rules-vaccine), yes it might be a week old, but the vaccine search started a year ago, and now, some want to avoid the IP rules. That is not fair on the makers of the vaccine. Their motives might have ben greed driven, but over half a dozen firms started to look for a solution. That solution is not a cheap one and in this the firms took that investment, because the vaccine sales would set them right. It is a fair setting, the governments were not able to step in to make it themselves and they bought the vaccines, as such I might not like the approach, but I get the setting that is being met. As such seeing “help boost global access to Covid-19 vaccines, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch said ahead of a key World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting in Geneva on December 10, 2020”, is as I personally see it utter bullshit. How loud were these two (on every channel) fighting for this a year ago? Why was there nothing to be seen in the mass of newspapers and digital news bringers? 

Yes, after the fact is nice, but AI and HRW do get get to sulk like little bitches a year later. There could be a case if the bulk of the newspapers and media had mentioned that setting over the last year, but they did not, did they? 

I get it, it is not completely fair on some places, but what options were given to these locations by the UN buying vaccines for these regions? 

When we consider the setting we see in the first “At the WTO meeting, the governments will discuss a proposal by India and South Africa to temporarily waive some provisions of the Trade Related Aspects of the Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) Agreement. The proposal would facilitate technology transfers so that Covid-19 medical products, including vaccines, could be produced quickly and affordably by manufacturers around the world”, and in the second “Higher-income countries have already made deals to buy up the vast majority of the world’s potential vaccine supplies for 2021, so the move would help scale up access for people in lower-income countries”, the question is what will the pharmaceutical companies do? 

We see the Washington Post give us ‘Coronavirus vaccinations have started. But people in Africa face a much longer wait’, and before we start screaming foul, remember, that so far only 1.6 million on 75 million people died and these numbers show is that 23% of ALL the deaths are in America. This leaves us with a mortality rate of 2.13% (which is not a really fair setting), yet what is also given is that 70% makes a full recovery, we seem to forget bout those parts. In this the survival part is more accurate than the non-living part on a few issues, we see that basically, 27% of those who contracted the disease are not out of the woods yet. As such, n this setting we see over reaction and opportunity seekers, opportunity seekers is that this is happening AFTER THE FACT. I get it, they didn’t want to do it ahead of time, because the pharmaceuticals have no intentions to make something for free, which makes sense too. So when we see “Kenya, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Pakistan have joined India and South Africa to co-sponsor the waiver proposal. The proposal was welcomed or supported by 100 countries, most of them low- or middle-income. But a small group of high-income countries and their trading partners have opposed it; including Brazil, the European Union, Canada, the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom”, we get that the low income nations need a solution and it will come, but the overreaction in light of the numbers we see are a bit out there and even as I have been against a whole range of pharmaceutical issues in the past, they do have their rights too, and TRIPS was there to enforce rights and duties. So to abolish it to deal with fear is just a bit of a no-no as I personally see it.

Is it fair on India and South Africa? Well that remains to be seen, but I do not see why, in India 144,914 died of the disease whilst India has well over 1.35 billion people, implying that their national mortality rate for Covid-19 is 1% of 1%, so what are they needing a vaccine for? The fact that 9,530,530 recovered from the 9,987,949 cases is also debatable, but that gives them that 95.4% fully recovered, as such why is India so up in arms on this? Perhaps the fact that for well over a year the numbers never made sense, perhaps India has a much larger problem, yet their pride got in the way of it all, so if they cannot properly inform us, why should they receive special consideration? I know, you might not agree and that I fair, but that is the setting. That is what we think plays. The Print (at https://theprint.in/health/india-is-missing-about-90-infections-for-every-covid-case-latest-govt-analysis-shows/567898/) gives us “Latest analysis by DST panel, that predicted end of Covid pandemic in India in February 2021, finds that about 60 per cent Indians have been infected so far”, that in light of the reported 9,987,949 total Covid cases, whilst the population of India is 1.35 billion makes less sense when those numbers were reported, all whilst they give us now (well three days ago) that 60%, implying that 810 million people in India have Covid-19, so what happened to the 800 million Indians in the numbers? 

At some point the ego of governments need to be held to account and I see no reason why they get to take the pharmaceutical players for a ride. In this I wrote this on October 31st “Even as India has well over 3 times the population of the US, there is no way that the numbers add up, with the US having over 9 million cases and India barely passing 8 million, the stage is not completely seen”, almost 2 months ago I questioned the Indian setting, the numbers never added up. I did that in ‘As jobs become available’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/10/31/as-jobs-become-available/), but no one (in the media) asked serious questions regarding that stage, why not? 

As such, as I personally see it, India has nothing to complain about, perhaps they need to elect officials that will give them the actual setting, not some story by Mother Goose. It is the stage they set themselves, as such the ‘After the Fact’ premise that we see given now is as I personally see it, a cold spud in space.

And the 100 supporters need to consider their own numbers. India might be the most visible one, but it is not the only one and this Covid-19 stage was a serious one and another one will come, there is no doubt about that part, as such these governments better start playing nice, better start giving the others the numbers that are true, a much larger stage could have been prepared by the world as India hd been upfront about the 800 million missing infections, perhaps the lesson they are handed now will improve their view of what matters, their ego or reality. 

Yes, it almost sounds inhumane, but we accepted responsibility of certain choices, like laws, trade laws and IP Laws, we cannot switch them off when it pleases us, because we might as well throw all laws overboard in that game, a stage that bodes a lot of harsh stages when this happens.

There is of course the conversation that India and South Africa can have on what to do the next time around and that is fair, that is just and yes, it is a stage we must acknowledge, yet it is not after the fact and that is the proper stage to play and perhaps it will result in an adaptation to TRIPS, I cannot deny of oppose that setting, the question is what the pharmaceutical players will set at that point. We can all accept that their IP, is just that, it is theirs. It does not mean that a deal cannot be worked out, but it is done in advance, it is a set stage where they can decide how to act and at that point the HRW can be all dog and less humane, what happens then? Time will tell, for now we have this issue in play and we still have no real view on how many distribution point there are and how 4,000,000,000-6,500,000,000 vaccines will get to their destination. Because that too is a stage we forgot to look at, that many vaccines will imply that mutations are almost a certainty, yet how many we will see is not clear, when that happens, global travel as we know it will change forever. 

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Dead on arrival?

Yes, we get the at times, not when the ambulance is racing to get to the ER with a guy wearing 10 knives in his chest, but a setting the is less obvious, almost like the movie dead on arrival, I saw the Dennis Quaid version (1988), I never saw the original from 1950. Yet in this version the victim (USA) does not yet know that it is carrying a deadly toxin, it was the benefit Dennis Quaid had in the movie. So as we see the USA in a stage of what they think matters, we see a larger stage, the stage Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) gives the people, with a still open invitation to India, it is the first time we get an economic bloc of this size where the USA is no longer a consideration, their 300 million consumers are in a stage where they can afford less and less. So as we get (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54949260) “President Donald Trump pulled his country out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) shortly after taking office. The deal was to involve 12 countries and was supported by Mr Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama as a way to counter China’s surging power in the region”, we need to see the partial truth that was a problem, a global one. Some give us (in regard to the TPP “Most of the gains in income would have gone to workers making more than $87,000 a year. Free trade agreements contribute to income inequality in high-wage countries. They promote cheaper goods from low-wage countries”, in addition we get “The agreement regarding patents would have reduced the availability of cheap generics. That could have raised the cost of many drugs. Competitive business pressures would have reduced the incentives in Asia to protect the environment. Last but not least, the trade agreement could have superseded financial regulations”, and there was more, so now we see the RCEP, optionally with similar issues, yet with India optionally joining we see a severe blow to patents (not good for me), but generic medication gets better protection (really good for me), and as we now get “The RCEP is expected to eliminate a range of tariffs on imports within 20 years. It also includes provisions on intellectual property, telecommunications, financial services, e-commerce and professional services”, so if that pact grows any further, we see a larger stage, one where the US and the EU see their cushy incomes diminish by well over 25%, yet it might take a decade, but it also means that the stage cannot be continued, as such their economies will need a vast overhaul in the next 5 years or living there in 2030 might not be a nice ideal in several places. So whilst the players are all about their financial services, we see a field that will vastly adjust in the next 5 years. And as I personally see it, it means that the death clock on Wall Street is pushing towards midnight. This is the consequence of catering to the greed stricken, this is what happens when ego takes over and in this case the ego of the USA and the EU are limiting their options, but the EU can always cater to Iran. And as I see it, a third of the global population is holding on to its 29% of the global gross domestic product. A stage that is a little new for a lot of us. As I see it, in 2030 when the national budgets become reality, I wonder how many people will herald the Campaign Against the Arms Trade, remember these grannies holding up the banner, stopping the arms trade against those bad bad Saudi’s? So when their pension goes down another 20% (if it still exists then), who will they blame? Will they call for Jeremy Corbyn? Will he still be alive? The same for the USA, yet here it will be president elect Biden calling the shots (he is entitled to that), but. Can they foresee the impact that the RCEP will have on their economy? I very much doubt it, yet endangering the $8,500,000,000 deal out there tends to be a really bad call, so as the RCEP will deliver to a larger population, we see a slow push take the USA from the pool of those who matter. As I personally see it, hypocritical high morals are nice, that is until the invoices come in, and these always come in.

Today the largest trade agreement in history was signed and the USA was no longer part of the big things happening, it might be a first, but it is no longer a last, that is the impact of close to 15 years of stupidity, short sightedness and ego, all set in a near package, it is efficient, I merely wonder for who it was an efficient setting, not for the USA, not for the EU, that much is certain. 

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