Tag Archives: Germany

June 5, 2023 · 21:12

Slam-dunk for the blogger

Yup, I got to call the slam-dunk in my name, on my name and for my name. Now, I am no basketball fan, not when there is the NHL. But I have to give it to the NBA, that term they got right. So this all happened in the morning as I was pondering what was next on the table. Then the BBC gave me the heads up (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65804768) with the ominous ‘Oil prices rise as Saudi Arabia pledges output cuts’. I had made mention of this danger a few times over the last month alone and now we get “Oil prices have risen after Saudi Arabia said it would make cuts of a million barrels per day (bpd) in July” and remember it is only a million barrels a day, my scenario was a little less nice. This is the exact danger that I predicted and now that it is going to pass, I wonder what the trolls will shout at me. I made mention yesterday that oil prices would be on the calendar of Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) and now it actually is there and it will be a rather not so nice meeting coming up, I reckon that Iran is no longer the main focus. This and the stage of BRICS implies that hard times are ahead for the US and I reckon to some extent the EU too. Because now the US is driven to make the million less be a larger setting for the EU than for the US. A stage well predicted and now it is coming to pass. 

It is Sameer Hashmi, the BBC Middle East business correspondent who gives us “it was widely expected the oil cartel would make production cuts to prop up prices. It appears most members were against the idea, as any cuts would impact oil revenues, which are crucial to keep running their economies.” He is not wrong, but the oversimplified setting is that they are going from 4 barrels at $3, to three barrels at $4. They all still get their $12 (and then some), but the larger stage  comes into play when the equation turns towards 2 barrels for $6, they will still get the same, but now their supplies will last twice as long. The larger problem for the US is that they get 50% for the same price and they still haven’t considered muzzling Brent Oil, those people export over 80% and now something will have to give and that is the stage we are coning to now. So when the UK and EU start feeling the pain of less oil there economy will impact to a much larger extent and as the Just Stop Oil people start shouting victory, the impact of people who cannot pay for heating bills, tradies that can no longer work because their prices need to keep going up, the setting of losses all over rural nations (UK, Germany, Italy and France the most) will be seeing much larger impacts. A stage that was clearly out there. The clearest recent mention I made was on April 13th (almost 2 months ago) at ‘The song remains the same’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/04/13/the-song-remains-the-same/) it was clear that reductions were in the focal point of OPEC members and in this Russia is merely sitting back, for them it works out nicely. But the larger stages of economy are not set to the drawback of oil lacks, no scenario was set to that and that is the largest political failure in the west. In this the one solution they had with Elon Musk is now slipping from their fingers. So not only did the US bite both hands that could be feeding them, whatever comes next might not be in time for the next debt ceiling, implying that default is the only thing that Americans have to look forward to. 

So in the end one player wins, the other player loses, but I get my slam-dunk. Is it fair? That is not the question, I saw this and I predicted this, so why did these high paid politicians not see this? It wasn’t rocket science (well perhaps the Musk solution was). And as options run short the west needs to rethink the political egotistical needs they had and how they will sail with a lack of vision. All that and more hardships will be coming soon and they did this all to themselves and that setting was clear long before Trump took office. A setting of cogs and the first cog will not care what the second and third cog faces. That is the oversimplified truth of the matter, so whilst we watch the news this month, also look at how much enough the people have with the ‘Just stop oil’ movement. As I personally see it, the UK got directly hurt by them and the CAAT all on moral grounds that were massively one sided and based on a fake moral high ground. So remember them when your pump price goes from 189.9p to 293.4p. Don’t blame the pump owner, blame the people who made this happen. 

Enjoy the day (consider a bicycle).

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May 21, 2023 · 23:53

The perception of others

This is a case, this is often a case and in this case. I am one of the others. You see the ‘news’ is no longer that, it is often filtered information. Information that is accepted by shareholders, stake holders and advertisers, as such the people are seen and treated more often than not as a distant fourth. This setting came to the forefront when I saw ‘G7 takes stand against China’s “economic coercion”’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-65662720) where we are given “And in not one but two statements, the leaders of the world’s richest democracies made clear to Beijing their stance on divisive issues such as the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan. But the most important part of their message centred on what they called “economic coercion””  Now here we need to pause. These people do not lie (at least I hope they do not), but lets take a look at the evidence. The first is the ‘world’s richest democracies’, these nations are

1. Canada, debt around $ 2,100,000,000,000
2. France, debt around € 3,000,000,000,000
3. Germany, debt around € 2,600,000,000,000
4. Italy, debt around $ 3,000,000,000,000
5. Japan, debt around $ 9,300,000,000,000
6. UK, debt around £ 2,500,000,000,000
7. USA, debt around $ 32,500,000,000,000

Yes, they are really rich (in debt). To give a little consideration “As of April 2023 it costs $460 billion to maintain the debt, which is 13% of the total federal spending” for the US, their interest is $460,000,000,000 to pay for the interest and 13% of the entire budget is to pay for the interest. So all this talk about debt ceilings is close to null and void. Not unlike a Ponzi scheme the US government is taking out new loans to pay for the INTEREST of old loans. When did that ever go good? But that is not what this is about. The next stage is about ‘economic coercion’ something America and others have done for decades. Economic coercion is a political tool that the US pushed all over the middle east, and now that Saudi Arabia and other are pulling their contract with the US and giving options to China it is coercion? I mentioned it a few days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/05/19/the-stupidity-of-some/) in ‘The stupidity of some’, I made mention of some elements then and several other articles before that. One should not bite the hands that feeds you and I reckon that is why other players were invited to this party as well (no matter what they say). The US is broke and needs others to do some of the heavy lifting. This is OK, or at least that is why allies stick together, but the bulk is deeply in debt with Canada and Australia in a much better position. Germany had industrial revenues so it is not that bad off either. But this is not bout that, it becomes clear when we see “Now, they worry they are being held hostage. In recent years, Beijing has been unafraid to slap trade sanctions on countries that have displeased them. This includes South Korea, when Seoul installed a US missile defence system, and Australia during a recent period of chilly relations.” They worry? So are they being held hostage, or are they not. Lets be clear all these players have engaged with some form of economic coercion in the past, it is a valid political tool, but now that the shoe is on the other foot, the US is worried. It is losing its grip on the Middle East and as Saudi Arabia is uniting its nations and leagues with the added Syria, Egypt and now optionally Iran as well, the stage changes for the west in the Middle East. China has been invited there now and that worries all players of team G7. You see with them losing 5%-10% revenue to China due to all kinds of reasons they are now scared that someone (the big banks like the Rothschilds) will cancel THEIR credit card and that has them scared silly. I would be to, I really would. This is just a few reasons why I tried to sell my IP to Saudi Arabia and Kingdom Holdings (optionally the UAE too). Amazon and Google were asleep and not caring (perhaps they didn’t like my IP) and Microsoft is not invited to that party and optionally Tencent Technologies is.

You see, the stage, several stages are turning to China as an option. Does China have any less debt? I cannot tell, but they are drilling into new business like nothing we see and that has the G7 scared. 

So when we get to “They called for “de-risking”- a policy that Ms von der Leyen, who is attending the summit, has championed. This is a more moderate version of the US’ idea of “decoupling” from China, where they would talk tougher in diplomacy, diversify trade sources, and protect trade and technology.” We see the larger stage, the ‘west’ will diversify trade sources, so that new and emerging economies can only do business with them if they do not do business with China. Almost like Sony did with retailers in 1998/1999. Those who were showing the SEGA Dreamcast would not be getting the PS2. It scared a lot of retailers because PS2 was a winning system and it did. The same was done much earlier with VHS pushing out Betamax (which was superior). A tool used again and again. Yet the larger stage is not these emerging economies, they are a factor, it is what will Saudi Arabia and the UAE do, they are now aligning the next decade and they were the big spenders all over the place and that setting is now heading for China (not sure if it is a done deal) and in this Egypt is important. With them championing Huawei and their G5, Egypt aligns with Saudi Arabia and a lot of commerce and Egypt then becomes a 5G beachhead all over the mediterranean and Africa. This will benefit China a lot. And as we get to “The US is already doing this with its ban on exports of chips and chip technology to China, which Japan and the Netherlands have joined. The G7 is making clear such efforts would not only continue, but ramp up, despite Beijing’s protestations.” This is the stage that is evolving and it is a dangerous move to make. I get why it is done. In the first I am not stating that China is innocent, I am stating that they all used these tools and the debts are drowning their actions. The danger is that if there are any innovative people in China, they will come with an alternative. I have no idea what, but I recall a nice example. The US created a specific ballpoint pen that could be used in space, they spend millions on that solution somehow and Russia? They used a pencil. We saw the Huawei block by Google and now Huawei is rocking the Harmony OS which is available in 77 languages. It is different from both Google and Apple, so what happens when Harmony becomes the tool of choice in the Middle East? You can ban and block, but the danger is that someone finds another way just like Toshiba in Russia decades ago and there was no alternative, as such Toshiba grew and grew with an entire market where they had no competition. Will it happen again? I am certain of it, when one resource closes people look for another resource, it is a natural continuation. Only really stupid people think that no one can get around them and I wonder what will come next. As such I have issues and the BBC did nothing wrong here, they reported, they used quotes and they adhered to something (not sure what). I am showing you that what is said is not merely dangerous it is deceptive. It these are the richest democratic economies, why is there a 50 trillion dollar debt (actually it is decently higher at present). A debt of 50,000 billion and no one is asking questions. I get it (to some degree) Russia is now a problem, the Ukraine is dealing with it, but it can only do so much. It needs support and I agree they do need it and I believe they deserve all the help we can give them, yet across the waters there is no one dealing with the actual debt, they are merely prolonging a complete collapse that will have too many deep in debt for decades. Retirement plans will collapse, health care will collapse and we will all blame someone, but no one is looking at how we all let this happen and now those with the option will look towards the Middle East (including me), a lot are looking at China as an option and a global brain drain will be the consequence. All settings that the G7 will have to consider, because they all have a lot to lose.

Enjoy the start of Monday up to 12 hours (for some) from now. 

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April 4, 2023 · 00:27

Repetition

You would think that the Germans would learn. They were stupid during WW1, then again WW2 and now they decided to openly support Russia. Do people never learn? To be honest, I am not sure that it is ALL germans are that stupid, but it is the party of Scholz, the Social Democratic Party of German (SDP). And to see this we need to look at a timeline. 

The tweet above woke me up, something was bothering me about this. And yes, there it was. It was in 2022 when politico gave us (at https://www.politico.eu/article/we-failed-germany-depended-on-russia-social-democrat-said/) ‘‘We failed’ on Russia: Top German Social Democrat offers mea culpa’, clearly it was a mere spin, their actions will support my view that they are merely the pro-Putin spin puppets of Europe. There we are given “Germany’s ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) “failed” to see Russia’s aggressive intentions, bargained away trust by ignoring warnings from Eastern Europe and manoeuvred Germany into dangerous energy dependency, the party’s co-chief acknowledged Tuesday”, well this isn’t nearly the end and the media is avoiding all this, why is that? We are also given “The self-critical words are also a break from Scholz, who last week self-confidently claimed that he “always” knew about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions to use energy as a weapon; and Merkel, who has claimed that she did nothing wrong with her Russia policies.” Well, Merkel is up for debate, but that needs to be done by someone with a much stronger sense of German politics than I have. You see, this stage preluded the setting we see in the Deutsche Welle (https://www.dw.com/en/why-german-chancellor-olaf-scholz-is-hesitant-about-delivering-battle-tanks-to-ukraine/a-64493249), we are given ‘Why Germany hesitates on sending battle tanks to Ukraine’, but there is a time line now and this message that we get in January 2023 gives us the setting. The German SDP is the spin chihuahua of the Russian machine and it is time that all parties acknowledge that. There is no “Pressure is growing on Germany to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz doesn’t want to commit just yet, partly because he’s playing to his party, the Social Democrats.” There was no SDP, this was to stop the pressure getting upped against Russia and that is what was at stake. The Russian tanks are already demolished enough as it were and the Leopards would make slim work out of the mechanised infantry that Russia has. So when we see “In reference to Scholz’s now-famous Zeitenwende speech condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February, Klingbeil said the party needed to answer fundamental questions: “What does this historic shift mean from a Social Democratic perspective? How do we define our relationship with Russia, China, and the United States? How does a self-confident and sovereign Europe define itself, and what is Germany’s role in this rapidly changing world?”” Well as I personally see it, I am reminded of The Munich Agreement,  concluded on September 30th 1938, by Nazi Germany. You remember the photograph of Chamberlain getting out of his plane? The quote “Peace in our time”? How did that end? I mean you all got history lessons in primary school did you not? 

We see a time line where the SDP is nothing more than a puppet of Russia and the latest BS peace (bad) idea where Ukraine losses their lands was rejected by Oleksii Makeiev in the strongest way, there never was a peace plan, it was the SDP doing what Russia could not, they are losing and it reminds me of something I saw a few months ago “Ukraine is supported to make the war go on, not supported to win the war”, I was skeptical when I saw it, now months later when I see the evolution in the media, and the media is willing to not report on the timeline gives a rather nasty reality, the media is set against complete reporting, exploit the emotional moments and not do their jobs. Feel free to investigate. Feel free to explore the timeline 2022-2023. Russia has support in the media and it shows how redundant the media has become. As I see it, after the news we have seen over the last year alone. There is no relationship with Russia, only the delusional see that there is a relationship. There is merely adherence to the Russian machine ad the media is willing to collect every digital dollar they can to cater to both sides. 

How sickening Europe has become.

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March 30, 2023 · 22:38

Welcome to the OC bitch!

Yes, this sounds strong and it was part of a script. The series threw that phrase out for weeks as the OC was gaining traction. It drove Misha Barton to success and that is pretty much all I know about the series. We take some facts to the bank, we count on it, we depend on it. But then I got to thinking. OC also stands for Organised Crime and at present can you tell the difference whether  it is Organised Crime or a bank? That is not a joke, it is a serious question. Al Jazeera gives us (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/29/french-prosecutors-raid-five-banks-in-massive-tax-fraud-case) ‘French prosecutors raid five banks in massive tax fraud case’. There we are given “banks, including Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and HSBC, faced a compensation request of more than $1bn” we also get “an earlier report in Le Monde newspaper, said Tuesday’s searches had also targeted Exane, which is part of BNP Paribas, and Natixis, the investment bank arm of French banking group BPCE” in the late 80’s someone told me “To be a thief, you need to be good and agile, if you lack these skills you could always become a banker” well we have been seeing that a lot since 2008 onwards. And now we see “it was impossible to put an exact figure on the scale of the fraud but said the banks together faced an overall compensation request of more than $1bn, including fines and late interest payments” this had been going on (as far as they could tell) since 2014. So what is the difference between Organised Crime and bankers? Is it a mere case of legislation? So after we are given the sleep creating news (by the media) regarding United States of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse. We see more cases regarding Fraud? So when will someone wake up and realise that banks are either properly regulated or they are allowed to collapse and the shareholders lose their funds. So when we see advertisement from HSBC how climate change ignores borders, can the next advertisement please state “Climate change, not unlike our alleged involvement in fraud is happily ignoring all border issues” 

Perhaps it is more on point than the so called ‘awareness’ vibes they are spreading now. And when I look at half a dozen advertisements from HSBC I can apply the same strokes to the text and the advertisement becomes a lot different, it becomes a clear path of opportunity seeking. Now, I cannot tell how involved HSBC is, but the raids seem to imply issues. You see the banking system has been skating on the edge of legality for so long (for the need of profit) and when we think back to the billboard days when we got all the anti-Brexit announcements, I saw that there was no mention of Bank fraud, as such, is this hypocrisy or is it like adultery. Everyone expects you to lie about that? Think about that for a second. It is the ‘expects you to lie’ part. In 2018 UNSW gave us ‘Heavy penalties are on the table for banks caught lying and taking fees for no service’, I would add to that that anyone lying is barred from banking services forever. There needs to come a time when these issues need to be dealt with. And the fact that a raid on five banks was done, implies (not proven) that there is a massively large problem out there. So why do we allow these bankers to continue? 

It is a serious question. Uber is short on people, there is seemingly a shortage in supermarkets, let the disgraced bankers fill those holes. Just a thought.

Meanwhile German Deutsche Welle gave us (at https://www.dw.com/en/paris-banks-raided-in-100-billion-tax-fraud-probe/a-65151312) ‘Paris banks raided in €100 billion tax fraud probe’. This seems to be the larger stage (and several media had nothing on this). So when we consider “the investigations are linked to legally dubious “cum cum” practices in which banks create overly complex legal structures as a way to allow wealthy clients to skip out on tax liabilities for dividends. Authorities say Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, BNP Paribas subsidiary Exane, Natixis and the British banking behemoth HSBC are suspected of aggravated tax fraud laundering. Moreover, BNP and Exane are suspected of aggravated tax fraud” can you honestly answer whether there is a difference between Organised Crime and Bankers. We could argue that most bankers have some form of Filofax and are therefor Very Organised Crime. Yet that is seemingly the largest difference at present. Yet this text also gives us another side and that is important. It is seen with “complex legal structures as a way to allow wealthy clients to skip out on tax liabilities for dividends”. That raises the question whether the law was ACTUALLY broken. The Al Jazeera article and two others did not clearly give me this, so there are issues which reflect back on the old premise I made 25 years ago “The tax systems are in dire need of a complete overhaul” This view was mainly on the US and EU, but the setting still applies. And when we see terms like tax fraud and tax fraud laundering and the stage is ‘suspected’ the question becomes “Were laws broken?” You see if that is not the case, these bankers were merely clever sneaky bastards (aka: administrators) and there is no law stopping them (just like there is no laws on Karen’s and idiots). They are all allowed to stay, visit our surroundings and do their business and they are allowed to be as creative they can be within the law and the law is the issue. We might think they are hiding behind the setting of ‘overly complex legal structures’, but that isn’t illegal and we need to recognise that. We need to recognise that the laws and specifically tax laws have been blatantly ignored by all who should have ben overhauling them. That is the heart of the matter and that is under debate as I personally see it. Yet for over 3 decades politicians avoided that subject and now that governments are all running out of funds they are desperate to keep the nose away from their necks and that time is runing out faster and faster. That is merely how I see it.

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February 1, 2023 · 14:02

Insecure Masturbation Fraternisers (IMF)

Yup, that is the slogan and to get there we need to take a little trip down memory lane before we get to the article that jogged my memories. You see, it all started on October 10th 2013 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2013/10/10/economic-management-through-newscasts/) where I gave the readers “The same day I get the news on a diplomatic escalation in the Netherlands, sky News UK comes with an entirely different matter. Two elements seemed to be in play. The IMF suddenly lifted the economic growth for the UK by 1.4% for 2013 and for 1.9% for 2014. Those are numbers that are beyond remarkable. Sky News showed Olivier Blanchard the Chief economist of the IMF to make this statement. It was interesting that the IMF calls on Christine Lagarde to give the bad news and Olivier gets to give the good news. There was a shimmer of hope for realism as Ed Conway, economic Editor at Sky News was happy to not reject the notion that the IMF have been lousy forecasters in the past to say the least”, as well as “‘Suddenly’ there was good news, a week before the debt ceiling needs to be raided, whilst the US is still in shutdown mode. Let us not forget that Greece, who also suddenly had ‘good’ news last week is still beyond broke, in addition France and Italy are still not in good shape. The biggest issue is that the UK forecast, which was +0.6%, which was a pretty good achievement to +1.4%. That boils down to a miscalculation of almost $18 Billion! That is a massive miscalculation. There is no indication that such errors were made. Consider that the IMF had high criticism towards the tactics by Chancellor George Osborne, UK’s faithful exchequer.” Are you clued in at present. There is now an indicator that the IMF is nothing more than a political presentation tool to hand out lollies for others to look away as credit limits are increased. It is one of the reasons I went towards Brexit. After the speech by Marky Mark of the British bank (aka Mark Carney, a Canadian no less), I saw the dangers of staying in the EU. Mario Draghi was using a Credit card for trillions after the first trillion was a miss. Now, that happens, solutions are selected hoping it will set the outcome to another stage. There is no fault there, but then he does it again for another 2 trillion. Wasn’t it Albert Einstein that stated that only a lunatic will do the same thing twice hoping for a different outcome? And it wasn’t just me, others had reservations too. There was no outcry when Mario Draghi was shown to be a member of an exclusive bank group. So how much did his friends end up with catering to that debt. Consider that bank bonds have a registration fee and commission. So how much commission did these two dozen people get over three trillion? I can tell you that is would be up to 2%, implying that two dozen people ended up with $600,000,000, not a bad run. So why should the UK pay for that?

Now that we are all caught up (to some extent) it is time to look at the article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64452995) giving us ‘UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF’. Now I am not stating that this is not the case, it could be. Yet when we look to 2013 and later, the IMF has played the wrong spades in this game. So when I see words like ‘expected’ and ‘only major economy’ after it took the IMF and Creepy LaStrange (I think that was her name) a year to admit that they made an error of well over $18,000,000,000 I have issues with anything they claim. And when I see “The IMF said the economy will contract by 0.6% in 2023, rather than grow slightly as previously predicted” without clarity I have issues. The numbers could be true, but with the Russian clambake in the Ukraine, the Covid issues (especially in China), the labour shortages and a few other elements that influences the issues, we merely see  “Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the UK outperformed many forecasts last year. But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the figures showed the UK “lagging behind our peers”” and charts and numbers how bad the UK is doing, but the problem is that the IMF (or Insecure Masturbation Fraternisers) have been too much like a political tool. They proclaim that Russia is getting a positive boost this year but we do not see that it might be mainly woodworkers to create the  126,650 coffins for lost troops, so their economy is up, but who pays that bill? And in the stage of presentation my issue is that these people are all about ‘forcing’ the UK back into the EU so that their GDP can be added to their credit limit. The EU is running out of credit card space, it has been for a year and the UK revenue is essential to turn that about and people need to wake up to the unaccountable overspending the EU is doing. At present the EU debt is well over €12 trillion  with several nations having too much debt. We all know about Greece with over 193% of GDP, Italy surpassed 150% of GDP and Portugal surpassed 125%, Spain is almost at 120%, and France is at almost 115%. The credit limits have been reached and it does not bode well, so all hands on deck forcing the UK back into the EU, but the truth is that once the hardship is passed (which will take some time), the UK will become the power player and the EU will be reduced to a third world nation. So basically at present (a personal view) the German debt of 80% of GDP is the only economy keeping the EU standing. That is not enough and I spoke about that in the past (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/) in ‘The finality of French freedom’ on the 7th of March 2017 where I wrote “Which is why France is a big deal, that whilst they represent one of four anchors keeping the Euro in place. With the British anchor removed, the stress on the three is intense, the Euro cannot continue with the remaining two anchors that is the desperate game Draghi is facing now. Weakness and non-decisions from 2012 onwards have caused this mess, and of course he is not done yet. As we see in Reuters, last Monday he stated “If non-high-tech companies adopt more innovative technology, that would provide a boost for European productivity“, speaking as the European Central Bank President last Monday, it that so? With what funds? Innovations requires money, such steps have a cost” here I compared the economy with a floating platform kept in place by 4 anchors. It used to be the UK, France, Germany and Italy. Now that the UK is gone, the platform is now in trouble as only the German anchor has any strength left. The economic sea is in turmoil and I already saw this in 2017. Then we got Covid and that stupid bear named Russia and now the economy is a problem, especially for the EU and when that breaks up, the US (Japan also) have no way to go but down and that is what they all fear, they can prolong this if they can bully the UK, but we have seen enough bullies. We all have had enough and that is why I chose Brexit. I could not predict Covid or Russia, but a next economic disaster is alway just past the horizon, there is always a next fire to put out and now the IMF wants to make matters look worse. As I see it, they need a whole range of better and more descriptive numbers. As it stands, at present I do not trust the IMF. Yes the UK could face another recession, but it will be nowhere as bad as the one the EU faces. In the end the UK is part of a Commonwealth and we all (Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) need to united to face the headwinds of the coming storm, we owe it to each other with the acts of irresponsibility we do not owe the EU and we do not owe the US. The US has had over a quarter of a century to overhaul their tax laws. I made mention on this as early as in the age of President George H. W. Bush (1998) now 25 years ago. I say enough is enough and the IMF better give us a lot more and a lot clearer numbers than what we see in the BBC article. That is my personal point of view on the matter.

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January 26, 2023 · 11:26

School out awareness

This is a time for me to gather thoughts, for me to take notice if what I know and what I THINK I know, they are not thee same. You see in continuation of yesterday I got to think. I giggled at the people stating that when we send F16’s to the Ukraine the war will be over pretty soon. So who will be piloting them? Americans? Other NATO nations? The learning line of an F16 is months if not a year and there will be little left of the Ukraine when that is done. Tanks are a different matter, basic tank skills are within every tank operator and training them to a new tank takes weeks at best and some will be ready in days, that is something we can use. I know because my first education was as a military instructor (small arms). So when these tanks are delivered, will instructors be coming along to train them? It is a serious question, I reckon that they thought of it, but how is still unknown to me. Perhaps military advisors like the start of Vietnam, all kinds of options. It takes a day and a practice day to get people ready on most small arms including the LAW (M72), it isn’t enough to stop a tank nowadays (although the Russian tanks are not that good as news shows us), but it will wreck havoc on a truck with supplies, its inhabitants will require more than a bandaid. 

So why the thoughts?
Well we need Russia to lose for all our sakes, we need Ukraine to win for pretty much the same reason, the fact that it is the right thing to do is merely icing on the cake. Yet most people forget that wars are not won in a day and such settings require infrastructure and operational points to make it work and when we introduce hardware that is not native to its army, the lines become a lot more important. The infrastructure needs more and that is where my mind was at. 

And it is the Lithuanian news give us ‘Lithuanian military instructors leave for UK to train Ukrainian troops’ (at https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1874591/lithuanian-military-instructors-leave-for-uk-to-train-ukrainian-troops) a mere 14 hours ago. So when we see “Ukrainian troops are being trained in Lithuanian military units to use 60 mm mortars and are taking part in training courses for military police instructors.” I see nothing wrong, it makes perfect sense, but at some point (a month ago was better) some people will have to decide to place boots on the ground in the Ukraine. It does not solve the issue to ship hardware and leave the software in the west. We need to consider setting the stage there to train people THERE. There really is no other way. We can train a set of officers and NCO’s in the UK or any place, but at some time we need to train troops and there is a time gap between any NCO having certain skills and the point where he can actively and efficiently transfer that knowledge to troops, this takes time and as such as the image grew, my thoughts were with the instructors and how to get the knowledge into the Ukraine. It is a school out setting, a field exercise and the exercise is in the Ukraine. Of course any volunteers optionally get to shoot Russians as well, for some a boyhood dream in a real stage where buildings are slammed to the ground by missiles. It is not a fun place and it does remain a dangerous place. Even if the Russian Army (or Wagner) can’t shoot straight (as some news reports), a missile could accidentally hit you whilst shooting a civilian building, so this is no ones clambake, but it has become an essential one. The west needs to realise that the Ukrainian troops need to be taught, need to become efficient making the numbers (bad for Russia, good for Ukraine) more appealing. So 1:100 (one Ukrainian for every 100 dead Russians) could then become 1:800 or even 1:1000. Skills have that much of an impact in the field. There is of course more than merely shooting down Russians, other skills are required, but I never had those. In the field of survival the ability to properly wield hardware is essential and my thoughts are with how are these skills ending up in the Ukrainian heads? Perhaps it is already solved, but I would not know anything about that at present, hence the thoughts came to me. This war has been going on for a year now, as such the Russian opponent is already a first class loser, but I feel we need to do more to make it worse for Russia and the FBI not aiding oligarchs is an essential first.

 

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December 8, 2022 · 11:31

Once upon a silencer

Before I begin, lets be clear the story part is all unadulterated fiction, with a capital ‘U’ no less. So do not see this as anything else than fiction. The story might not make it clear but this should and you should take care on what you trust as fact. 

There is a town, the name Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. In that overgrown village is a house, the house is filled with all manner of people, all very adapt in English. They are awaiting a signal. Until that moment comes they sit, they sit whilst the ventilators are blowing cooled air towards them. Then a mobile sounds and one of them answers. The only response is ‘Yes, sir’ and he disconnects. He stands up and holds his assault rifle in the ready position. It is the signal the other dozen people were waiting for, they all instantly stand up they set their weapons to ready and walk towards the door. No word is exchanged, they are all aware of what must be done. They silently leave the house and they are like a silenced unit in the early morning. These soldiers have a few parts in common. They have no insignia, for all intent and purposes they could be walking shadows. They are all equipped with the SR-3 Vikhr. Made to keep noise down to a minimum, all experts in targeting, silent walks and shadow dancing. They approach the house where soft voices sound. They had prepared for this and they were ready. The locks on the front door were surpassed in less than 10 seconds. They walk in each in their intended direction and everyone was dispensed with in mere seconds, the entire operation took less than 20 seconds and there were no survivors. Then three other soldiers walked in, each holding 2 jerrycans, they stand in the room awaiting a signal. The corpses were relieved of papers, quick snaps were made of the face and hands and left where they were. The man in charge point his finger to the 3 soldiers. They move to their locations and thrust a hole in each of their jerry cans when they put them in place, safety pin is removed and they move to the exit following the other soldiers. In less than 10 seconds it is done and they walk back to their location, only to exit it on the rear and move towards 4 SUV’s that had arrived without making noise. They get in precisely as practised and they slowly drive away making a left turn, they are not in a hurry. People in a rush get noticed and these people are experts in not getting notices. Before they get to the end of the street they notice smoke in their rear view mirrors, only now would people notice that something was wrong, but they were already out of the notice zone.

Meanwhile in Germany
In Germany that day the officials started to arrest members of the Reich Citizens. Yet there was more in play, members of the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) and the Kommando Spezialkräfte (KSK) have their own charter to follow. Seven people who are part of no one, their only adherence is money and they have been funding issues that caught attention of the people who kept Germany safe and these seven people were adeptly removed from life. Each of the seven units were a mix of BND and KSK. The BND followed the KSK after people were relabelled corpses and started to gather whatever could hold intelligence that could be gathered. They were gathering intelligence but the orders were clear, passive collection only. Now the active collections started and the entire operations were completed in under 6 minutes and each team vacated the premises setting the location on fire through a short and patches of pure alcohol, nothing was left to chance.

The ugly intent
North of London is a small town named Hertford. In there is a house, a house with a young lady repeating the slogans she had taken to heart. Her dedication to JustStopOil might seem nice and even as she has no ulterior motives. She is a believer, but her ‘funding manager’ is not. It was orchestration of a new kind. And someone caught on, the man shuck in with an overgrown ratchet and crushed he skull with one precise hit, the girl falls down to the ground, dead before her head hit the floor. She was one of half a dozen targets, all done away in the same manner. The special operations branch took a different view from the others. They wanted the message to be clear to all supporters of anarchy. Your days are done!

It was then that the view looked to the west, but the members of QAnon were the responsibility of the FBI and CIA. 

Yes, this is pure fiction, but the underlying story is not. This all took month of preparations, of coaching and we see groups like Reichsbürger with sudden means for action. We see people like Prince Heinrich XIII, we see JustStopOil and we see other places. Someone is orchestrating, I have no idea who, but this isn’t some stage of lets follow someone else. This took money, it took a serious amount of coin, all anarchy requires funds to remain undetected for so long and now the governments have had enough. It is costing them too much. Now I have no idea what governments thinks (many are unable to do so). But the need to protect coffers and freedom require actions and even as I am fictionally am setting these actions in motion, I have no illusions on these governments having their needs and their solutions. That is something that is a clear stage and we need to recognise it. I once (about half a decade ago) accused a judge of cowardice. You see, I believe in laws, it sets us apart, but it is not the golden calf. There needs to be flexibility. The law keeps 95% in check, this includes criminals. The law takes care of it. 4.9% is dealt with in other ways, 0.1% cannot be dealt with, so the law wins. However 0.1% of the 0.1% is the problem. It amounts to 80,000 people who will do whatever they can to harm and hurt the 8,000,000,000 around. Which implies that on average around 400 people in a nation are extremely dangerous. Some are psychotic, some sociopaths and nature tends to deal with them, but a few of these are clever, they are hidden and they thrash out damage after damage and they need to be stopped through targeted killings. There is no other way and relying on the golden calf names ‘laws’ is a cowardly short sighted action. Actual actions are required and now we et to the stage where too many connect to social media giving these anarchy driven people a larger platform to connect to, inspiring too many people and action is required. What the best action is? I cannot tell, but with the media relying on digital dollars implies that these dangers are getting worse, as such my storytelling side is using fiction to ward of that feeling of inactions. Actual actions are the prospect of governments and it is up to them to actually act, but that might be me oversimplifying the issue.

Have a great day!

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December 2, 2022 · 19:04

Would you like some sugar with that?

I got a message yesterday which I initially ignored. Nothing wrong with the message, but I can only go to so many places in an hour and this message stretched me too thin, as such I let it be. Yet this morning I had a few moments so I checked out the message from Defense One. It gave me ‘US Trying to Persuade More Allies to Send NASAMS Missiles to Ukraine, Raytheon CEO Says’ (at https://www.defenseone.com/business/2022/12/exclusive-us-trying-persuade-more-allies-send-nasams-missiles-ukraine-raytheon-ceo-says/380382/) the thing triggered something, but I did not exactly know what was triggered. I thought I knew, but it was too far into the past for that to make sense. Yet the article set me straight. Initially we might see “U.S. officials are working to broker a deal with NATO and Middle Eastern nations to send some of their NASAMS interceptors to Ukraine, Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes said Thursday”, it did not help me much and “the Pentagon awarded Raytheon a contract for the first two NASAMS batteries. The company delivered the interceptors within six weeks, Hayes said, because it had many parts on hand and because Doug Bush, the Army’s top weapons buyer, helped speed things along.” So I had to seek out more information and there the other cog fell to the floor. NASAMS or Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System is the child of the Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KDA) and there the cog felt. It is a system from 1980. Kongsberg is led by Eirik Lie (weird name for an honest person). And there my defence knowledge partially kicked in. I knew of it, but that is about all I had. The Norwegians had designed the system to replace two Nike Hercules facilities in defending Norway’s southern air bases, where it would act in conjunction with F-16s in providing a layered defence, and that it did very well. I reckon that the engineers are proud as peacocks that this system can go to town on Russian missile systems 42 years later, there is no replacement for true innovation. I always said it and here you see it. OK, it was upgraded to a third version in 2019, but still it was tailored to a good design. And now we see Raytheon seeking assistance (of a sort). Here is also the problem I see. If manufacturing is a hard part, there are two sides to helping out now. What if this was Russias plan all along? What happens when Finland, the Netherlands, Spain, Oman, and Chile ship what they can ‘spare’ and a week later Spain and the Netherlands feel the brunt of running low on stock? I am not saying that this will happen, but the steps of Russia have to a larger extent not made sense and the pro-Russian coalition of the Dutch FvD will use that setting to every extent and that leaves a bad taste in my mouth. 

An alternative could be to assist Saudi Arabia with their 2030 goals and create a NASAM production facility there. If distributed manufacturing is a solution, creating an additional pool of manufacturers would become essential. In addition, the US and EU need every positive vibe they can muster as such the option has two benefits. Adding these solutions to Germany, Sweden, Denmark and France make perfect sense as well. When that happens we see five additional manufacturers, but that is not a short term solution, Ukraine needs missiles now and 2 years is too long. Yet with 5 additions, 2 years would be shrunk to 13-15 months, already a large saving. Now sending part of the needed missiles makes sense as there would be 5 additional creators. I see the simple setting that resources are required, then we see the manufacturing and after that shipping. The last part has plenty of options, the first two less so, although we can see that manufacturing is the bottleneck, Russia will soon see that if these 5 nations unite, Russia will end up having less and less options. And that is before we consider alternatives, You see Iceland has only 4% unemployment, but it might be reason to create another plant on the US base there (or next to it) which could create up to 2500 jobs. As such we see six options, is it a solution? I honestly do not know, but when the waiting list is two years something needs to give and it would be nice to see this before Russia gets to be creative with their missiles, ask Poland how that worked for them. The EU (US too) needs to act now, but merely getting others to send what they have might not be the safest path, not with current timelines. That is how I see it and if someone says I am wrong, I will not deny that my idea was completely ‘ad hoc’ and it would require scrutiny, but what would you do when you get told that anti-missile solutions are two years away? Especially when you consider what Russia is doing to the civilian population of Ukraine?

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November 3, 2022 · 15:18

That second police force

Yes, it comes as a shock. I know it. Although, it does not affect me (I think). But there is also a weird balancing act that derives from there. It was given to me by the Dutch NOS. You see the stupidity of one opponent (Russia) should not decide the inactions towards another (China). So there I was reading (at https://nos.nl/l/2450783) giving us : ‘China denies existence of police bureaus in the Netherlands, calls them ‘service points’’ there we learn that China has at least two of them in the Netherlands. One in Amsterdam and one in Rotterdam. Stations that China erected without informing the Dutch authorities. Next to the usage for administrative duties like the Chinese authorities self indicates, there are strong suspicions that China uses these offices to keep track of the Chinese with critical views of China. 

China responded “They are meant to assist local Chinese citizens who apply for an expired driving license. The people are ‘enthusiastic oversea Chinese people’ not police officers. 

The Dutch ministry of foreign affairs have stated that these offices are unacceptable and must be shut immediately. In other news, Germany is now investigating whether such an office exists in Frankfurt. 

No matter how this plays, China seemingly has a much larger intelligence operation in Europe, or did you think that ‘offices’ would be erected for expired driving licenses? The problem that this creates is twofold. What is merely for China, and what is used to give Russia additional material? The fact that Pro Russian collaboration is going on in the Netherlands has been clear for well over a year and it goes way beyond the borders of one seemingly mentioned name like Thierry Baudet. It goes a lot further and the question is how far? The fact that Russia’s efforts are monitored is one, the fact that China has an intelligence structure beneath the waterline is quite another and that is a setting that neither the Dutch or European forces will find acceptable, and the very same could be said for their alleged German activities.

Is one true? It is hard to say but the Dutch tend to have a sober view on matters, and the fact that the NOS gives us this hours ago whilst Reuters made mention 5 days ago implies that certain evidence has been checked and categorised implies a foundation that some will see as evidence. Of course we wonder how Reuters had it 5 days before the Dutch NOS, but one might have been a rumour, whilst the other one is verified information. The one question the UK (and commonwealth) needs to question is how far does this go, especially with a larger Chinese contingent in Australia, especially Sydney and Melbourne where we find a huge chunk of the 1.3 million Chinese immigrants.

Yet, that is not my concern, but it should be someones concern, don’t you think so?

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September 15, 2022 · 19:18

Aggregating in perpetuity

The mind at times makes a halt. I alerts its owner and gives him hell. This actually happened to me in the last two hours. You might have seen me going on on how some players were not paying attention. Over the last 24 hours I have ben watching this venue again, and my brain stopped me and went “Are you perfectly lame, dopey!” OK, I admit he used moron and a few other names (dopey is me going soft on me). 

You see, there is no chance in hell that this is the only thing they are missing. As such it was not merely me, they aren’t seeing a lot more, but what are they not seeing? We could consider where Google is looking at (nest solutions), we could watch where Amazon is focussing (Amazon shops) and we could offer that Apple is the new player, it is not. It merely looks where Apple is going, which makes sense to some degree. As such these players (as well as Facebook, Microsoft, SAP and a few other players) they are in some weird setting of returning to pre covid settings and as far as I can tell, they are missing a lot left, right and centre. 

So my mind gave a holler and went on a ‘Watch This!’ tour. That is where I have been the last to hours and suddenly the Middle East links make sense. Governments like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and a few others are now optionally in the market to extent where THEY can be, that was what my mind worked out in these news clippings in the last 24 hours. It also looked at the UAE and the interests of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Now, be aware this is not a player to be taken lightly. He and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud are no light players and they do not suffer fools, neither do the people in their inner circle. Yet if you make a good case, if you can support YOUR case with data and with facts, you could make a killing. These two players will pay for good ideas, so you are unlikely to get movement with the idea for a new potato peeler, but a setting to enhanced 5G applications and technology solutions that players like Google and Amazon might want, could find equal if not more eager potential in players like these two. Google and Amazon have gotten so used to people coming their way, the fact that these ideas go somewhere else could pay off, in my line it could mean a direct increase of $3,750,000 right off the bat, that more EACH MONTH by selecting another player that can afford your idea. I would like to add a word of caution. With these people you get one shot, thats it. Fumble then and you end with zilch, just a warning and it is up to you to adhere (or not) to those words of warning. I made my first move towards the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UAE is in Melbourne, not in Sydney. So that idea is out, but where you are, the setting might be slightly different. And face it, there is no statistical chance in hell that the players we used to rely on ONLY missed where I was and what I found. So what else are they not seeing? That is your optional ticket to a new (less burdened) life. If it works you are welcome and you can buy  me a cold beer if you ever get the chance. Up to you, the information is given freely. And they are not the only ones. There is a top ten of Middle Eastern people who are multi billionaires and they are ALWAYS looking for the next pay off, so you might be barking up the wrong tree, you merely need to show and present a larger case and I gave you a few names yesterday. So go and see what you can make of tomorrow. My solution has three arms and an optional stage that goes beyond 50 million subscriptions. Can you equal it? I am not challenging you, I am asking you. You see there is Software as a service (SaaS), gaming as a service (GaaS), cybersecurity as a service (CSaaS), there is FinTech and a few other means and far as I can tell, players like Amazon, Apple, Dell, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, SAP, and several other players are staring in the wide space and missing more and more niches and even more opportunities. A stage that is profitable for you. OK, I will admit that Facebook has an optional excuse, but when does company go soft on itself when $500,000,000 a month passes them by? You tell me, I have actually no idea. So what else are they not noticing and that might be the spark YOU need to make YOUR case and I am welcoming you to make these large blind players suffer a little more. And this is all before you realise that a few more players could be found in Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, China, India  and France. All players that would like a larger slice of whatever the tech players have and that was before the united onesies like Elon Musk come calling. It seems that there are a few more options for all of us, we used to rely on big-tech, but it seems to me that big-tech is broken. In named 8 players and you tell me who would openly ignore $500 million a month. We are looking in the wrong direction for our salvation and it is time we adjusted our views. I personally believe that Microsoft is lost, but the other 7 are in some unintended waiting area, now we can wait until they wake up, or we can offer it to other players and watch the panic when these 8 players suddenly realise that there are players NOW right behind them. I reckon that we can get a really good deal. Consider Netflix and see what happens when a player like CarryMinati extends its YouTube connection by adding whatever you have and adding 10-20 million connections. Google (YouTube) panicked too late when. TikTok came and now there I a contended first player. So what happens when half a dozen players suddenly become contenders in a field they were merely a top tier player? And they all have billionaires behind them hoping and seeking for more and we forgot about that part, at least I did, did you? So when my brain mentally bashed me and called me all things I prefer not to repeat here. My brain opened a door to other players. I was partially on board, but that was due to more factors, but now the playing field is wide open and players like Amazon and Google are now in the lower 5 choices. There are more than 5 more hungry for profit and there is the added profit, they are willing to concede to more whilst they grow their empire and you get a little larger slice, in my case that could amount to $45 million a year more, I’d buy that for a dollar (sorry, Robocop). So how much more could you make? And more important when the US sees that brain drain how large are the waves of panic that come then? 

I will let you work that out for your solution. For me? I am just fine at present, I merely need to wait (something I was never very good at).

Have a great Thursday!

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