Deutsche Welle gave me a view, it is a optional view and I am using optional because I know much too little about this. The story (at https://www.dw.com/en/why-uaes-opec-exit-is-a-blow-to-saudi-arabia/a-76975354) gives us ‘Why UAE’s OPEC exit is a blow to Saudi Arabia’ it feels different from other views stating that the break up of OPEC is a win for President Trump, which is another view to have. But here we see “The United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC to pump more oil on its own terms. The break strips Saudi Arabia of a key partner and adds to growing uncertainty over the cartel’s future.” Yes, the UAE could pump more, but I don’t think it will lead to the uncertainty of the oil cartel (named Open and Opec+) You see, this large blip on all our radars will come with other settings. It will give the gulf states a claim for Iranian oil (repair costs) and that could be sold directly to China and Europe, they will exclude the United States as it is the cause of all this mess. At which point others will reject offers from Brent oil as it is American oil and there is no telling how deep the rejection goes and the weird part is that this might open up European talks with Iran as it reimburses damages to the gulf states (namely: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq) it is not the win Iran was looking for, but it is a win as they can make a case that the United States lost. Will it go that way? Time will tell.
It all reminded me towards an old feud (1985) where a colleague accused me from hoarding the ‘Rinse Appelstroop’ on my sandwich, all whilst the sandwich can only contain a mere part of the entire tub. So when we see “For years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has clashed with Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s most powerful member, over these quotas. The UAE has invested heavily to expand its oil industry and grow its market share, but OPEC limits have repeatedly held it back.” And it reminded me of the feud my co worker gave me over the syrup, almost like oil. I have no idea on where it is all set in the oil industry, but the idea to give into America is nothing less than a joke. They claimed that they have all the oil they need, so why would they need some handhold over oil? The one commercial thing I do know is that as the offer of oil increases the price goes down, as such the Middle East needs to take care of how they deal with this, because oil even as a commodity has a lifespan, once you get to the bottom of the barrel, the amount of oil you can still produce come close to that number shaped like an ‘O’ (hint: it is zero).
So whilst I get that they all have needs, the idea that there might be an imbalanced amount towards one country is dangerous, but I get it, the UAE must do what is best for the UAE, Saudi Arabia must do what what is best for Saudi Arabia. But underneath all that we see “The UAE currently produces roughly 3.2 to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) under quotas but holds spare capacity of nearly 4.8 million bpd, Reuters news agency reported. Plans call for a hike in output toward 5 million bpd by next year.” And no one is looking at the amounts that might still be available for drilling. So what happens when that finishes? Everyone claps to attention but there is no clear vision for the future. And all the ‘influencers’ giving us the YouTube version of what comes tomorrow better find a good news source, because no one has an answer toward the ‘what now’ equation when the oils run out.
So whilst we are getting “OPEC has already been under strain from repeated quota breaches by members such as Iraq and Nigeria, and from Russia’s inconsistent compliance within OPEC+. The UAE’s departure adds to that sense of fragmentation. In his analysis for Capital Economics, Oxley warned that, in the medium term, if other producers with spare capacity “see the UAE successfully gaining flexibility and market share” outside OPEC, “others may follow.”” I understand that point of view, but I don’t think I can agree. The bully tactics of the United States will also give strength to Saudi Arabia as they might want to get issues resolved through Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Gabon and the Congo. There is definitely data that OPEC will be slightly weaker, but the oil that is gained in output will most likely go to China and the setting as of 9 April 2026, the UAE has intercepted and destroyed 537 ballistic missiles, 2,256 drone attacks and 26 cruise missiles fired from Iran, and that is mostly due to the acts of the United States. It is hard to hold them accountable as Iran attacked with the missiles, as such it is on Iran and as some state over 90% were allegedly aimed on civilian targets, as such the UAE demands reparations and so they should, but after that, should oil still be delivered to the instigator of these attacks? I don’t think it is that clear cut even as some state that Iran’s nuclear options were ludicrously limited (I don’t believe they were non-existent). So whilst the UAE could benefit from their withdrawal from OPEC, I see that the weak response from the gulf states towards the UAE is partially to blame for this.
The conversation had some additional things (at https://theconversation.com/the-uae-is-leaving-the-opec-oil-cartel-what-could-that-mean-for-oil-prices-281734) here we see ‘The UAE is leaving the OPEC oil cartel. What could that mean for oil prices?’, we see here “the UAE is one of the world’s top ten oil producers. The country also has the capacity to increase its output by about one million barrels per day”, which amounts to 6 million barrels a week (one day of rest) and that gives us at least and additional half a billion dollars a week, something the UAE can likely use, especially if it goes towards a solution avoiding the Strait of Hormuz which I wrote about in ‘Sinking a dilemma’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/02/01/sinking-a-dilemma/) I have no idea if that is the path the UAE will sail, but that makes sense, the Strait and the issues with Iran are massively out of play and it also helps with the other gulf states as they (for a fee) use that solution and that is all before the massive attention the harbours of Abu Dhabi and Dubai will enjoy with all these loaded skippers who can now avoid Iranian waters. I only see upsides here, but that channel will require a serious amount cash, there is no doubt about that and it is not merely now, whenever Iran throws a tantrum, the strait becomes the bottleneck for all gulf states. Better to remove that problem completely.
So whilst we are given “OPEC’s influence on the oil price depends on coordinated changes in production. By agreeing to collectively limit, or to expand, the supply of oil in the market, OPEC can manipulate the price to meet its objectives. The UAE alone is the world’s eighth-largest oil producer, and accounts for about 4% of the world’s oil production.” As such I might imagine that the UAE has an issue with the imposed limits and that is before we consider if Das Island is under limits as well. As such it makes sense that the UAE ight want to leave OPEC, but let it be clear, Iran forced this on the rest of OPEC and as such their desperation will also amount to the wrath that these members have as their grip on maximized profits wane.
Merely a small view on the setting and I get that not everyone agrees, not everyone is charmed by Appelstroop (a Dutch product). Have a great day.











