Tag Archives: Oil

May 16, 2026 · 04:54

Applied Directive Never Offering Concern

Nice and mystical, but it is al in the title. The guardian gives us (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/15/uae-oil-pipeline-strait-of-hormuz-by-2027) ‘UAE to complete second oil pipeline bypassing strait of Hormuz by 2027’ as such, with a year the problem with the strait of Hormuz and posing a setting for Iran, it is taken out of the equation. I admit that it is simpler than digging a trench from Sharjah to the east coast of the UAE, it is simpler and as such I love the idea. We are given “Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, has directed the UAE state oil company to fast-track the previously undisclosed project so that the pipeline can begin carrying oil from the emirates to the port of Fujairah by 2027. The new pipeline is expected to double the UAE’s export capacity via the existing Habshan-Fujairah pipeline which can carry up to 1.8m barrels a day to the port on the Gulf of Oman.” I am considering the idea that optionally expanding that port would give way to a fleet of tankers parking (5-8 ships). It would enable additional options as well, but it is straight out of mind thinking and I have no idea what there is now. There is the setting that these ships might require overhauls, but that is because I have seen the needs of takers in my youth in Rotterdam (predominantly Europoort & Maasvlakte) and I think that similar conditions might be required. So whilst we accept that “The UAE and Saudi Arabia are the only Gulf producers with pipelines that export crude outside the narrow waterway running between Iranian and Omani territory.” The fact that the UAE deleted itself from OPEC opens up other settings, they would have no limits to go though which they apparently had in the past, as such they could release close to their own maximum settings overriding what was previously allowed through OPEC. So, as I see it “Leaving the oil cartel was expected to allow the UAE, the group’s third-largest oil producer, to pump more oil than the group’s future production quotas may allow once the conflict ends and normal trade through the strait of Hormuz resumes.”

There is the idea that this might (I am completely uncertain about this) be paid back in mere months after which that new pipeline will bring in a pretty penny and restores the old prices of oil by 2028/2029. It would be nice to see Iran lose another setting, which they will oppose, but it is out of the waters of Iran, so they don’t get to have a word on this. And as Iran made it a case to bomb the UAE for all it could, it is nice to see them come in last in a race with limited players. 

So whilst we see “The UAE’s departure has laid bare the long-running tensions between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, with the Saudis normally favouring strict production quotas to keep oil prices high enough to support their economic agenda. The exact capacity of the new pipeline has not been disclosed but doubling its existing capacity to 3.6m barrels a day would bring the UAE’s pipeline exports closer to that of Saudi Arabia, which can transport roughly 7m barrels a day from its eastern oilfields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, of which 5m barrels are exported.” And with that Iran will have angered the Arabic nations to another level, because it will dig into the Saudi pennies and they will not accept that lying down. If only they have refrained from bombing the Arabic nations, they might not have gotten themselves into this predicament a clear showing of how limiting the Iranian thinking patterns are. A clear setting that pretty much any oil country could have considered and now we see where that is getting them. For the UAE, who got this project started it means that several advances will get green lighted sooner rather than later. 

So have a great day and consider that the UAE got a solution working in weeks and it is more elegant that my solution of making a canal, so the bulk of tankers don’t have to look at Iran at all. Simplicity itself.

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May 4, 2026 · 12:33

As oil burns

That is the lesson the Russians are learning. The BBC gives us (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyp41v1n1go) ‘Russian strikes kill 10 as Zelensky says Ukraine hits oil tankers and terminal’ where we see “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said three Russian oil tankers, a cruise-missile carrier warship and a patrol boat were struck in separate attacks on two Russian ports. There are no details on damage to the ships, but Zelensky said the tankers were part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” used to evade Western sanctions imposed over Moscow’s full-scale invasion launched in 2022.” So whilst the Russians struck 10 people, 5 ‘commodity’ items were taken of the Russian board. Paraphrased that comes down to a taker for every 2 Ukrainian lives. I think it is not a proper way to say things, but in value it does ring true. And as Russia is losing more and more, the option to replenish through the selling of oil is also fading. Yes, I know it is not the most elegant way to state things, but it seems that the world needs a wake up call and as I foresee that soon this might be a solo fight between Russia and the United States, as the rest have isolated these two players. So the world sees two megalomaniacs praise and banter all over the field whilst they have to tough it out alone. It remains me of that old hit by Frankie Goes to Hollywood called Two Tribes (1984) and whilst some might remember that hit, some will see the light of the reality that it gives. And Russia? Their option is pretty simple and it was phrased by former Prime Minister of Finland Sanna Marin in one easy step and it was out there for over 3 years “In October 2022, she stated that the only way to end the conflict is for Russia to leave Ukraine. Her direct response, “The way out of the conflict is for Russia to leave Ukraine,”” seems simple, but the effect that the ego of megalomaniacs is that lead ing equals defeat, they cannot comprehend this concept. President Trump not in Iran and President Putin not in the Ukraine and as I see it, the rest of the world is ready to isolate both and they can banter to each other. 

So whilst some will ‘comment’ that Russia only lost 2 tanks, the reality is that they already lost 11,908 tanks, they might not have that many more open to the western front. They apparently only have about 2,500 tanks left and for any ground offensive that is not that much and we have no idea how many of those are the T34 ‘juggernauts’ (from 1939) and when you consider that these encounters are now set to UAV’s and the Ukraine did away with 269,813 of them bad boys and 2,224 of them in the last week alone, Russia has a problem as their supplier (Iran) is dealing with its own losses all over the field, so Russia is almost forced to rely on 1,334,030 dead soldiers, with 1,080 removed from the roll call of life in the last week alone. I reckon that over 900,000 might still be alive if someone in the Kremlin would have taken the words of Sanna Marin in their heart. The likely disadvantage of listening to someone’s ego. So when Russia wants to sell its oil, it needs to remember that 93,556 automotive and fuel tanks can no longer deliver anything, that being said, three oil tankers, for some unexplainable reason, cannot bring oil deliveries either. As I see it, the Russian options are getting fewer and fewer and soon they can only knock on the doors of the United States and whilst the Republican Party is in power, they might not get turned away. So there is every chance that Russia’s state oil firm Transneft will not report income for some time to come. So whilst we hear that the Ukraine has delivered Russia an estimated $7 billion in losses, with March alone seeing over $2.3 billion in revenue losses. These attacks have reduced oil transshipments by 300,000–500,000 barrels per day (bpd), forcing production cuts, reducing exports to their lowest level since 2024, and leaving half of Russia’s oil companies unprofitable. (Source: Al Jazeera) So as most doesn’t have the ability to suffer losses to this degree (I can honestly state that my wallet was never in a position to carry that much revenue) and that is the hidden setting that a lot of the media is not clearly stating. How much losses can any place (like Russia) endure? The media seems to paint with the same brush all matters so that the clarity is not seen, but when you sit and think if it the picture doesn’t make sense. Russia as well as Houthi terrorists rely on Iranian UAV’s and their space parts, but that was scuttled by the United States (as far as we know). Oil is shown its combustable properties by the Ukrainian forces and there is no clear setting for Iran which is getting an explanation by the forces of the United States and Israel. The stage is that both Russia and Iran seems to ‘fare’ in normal ways, but that setting could never be in such a setting. The image is wrong and there is every indication that I am missing parts of the image or revenue streams, but the media has lost reliability and I lack that knowledge to fill in the blanks and no one seems to be answering these questions. So whilst we see oil burning, no one is wondering what replaces that. 

So, have a great day and consider the issues I brought to the surface at this moment.

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April 30, 2026 · 14:17

The syrup of some

Deutsche Welle gave me a view, it is a optional view and I am using optional because I know much too little about this. The story (at https://www.dw.com/en/why-uaes-opec-exit-is-a-blow-to-saudi-arabia/a-76975354) gives us ‘Why UAE’s OPEC exit is a blow to Saudi Arabia’ it feels different from other views stating that the break up of OPEC is a win for President Trump, which is another view to have. But here we see “The United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC to pump more oil on its own terms. The break strips Saudi Arabia of a key partner and adds to growing uncertainty over the cartel’s future.” Yes, the UAE could pump more, but I don’t think it will lead to the uncertainty of the oil cartel (named Open and Opec+) You see, this large blip on all our radars will come with other settings. It will give the gulf states a claim for Iranian oil (repair costs) and that could be sold directly to China and Europe, they will exclude the United States as it is the cause of all this mess. At which point others will reject offers from Brent oil as it is American oil and there is no telling how deep the rejection goes and the weird part is that this might open up European talks with Iran as it reimburses damages to the gulf states (namely: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq) it is not the win Iran was looking for, but it is a win as they can make a case that the United States lost. Will it go that way? Time will tell.

It all reminded me towards an old feud (1985) where a colleague accused me from hoarding the ‘Rinse Appelstroop’ on my sandwich, all whilst the sandwich can only contain a mere part of the entire tub. So when we see “For years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has clashed with Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s most powerful member, over these quotas. The UAE has invested heavily to expand its oil industry and grow its market share, but OPEC limits have repeatedly held it back.” And it reminded me of the feud my co worker gave me over the syrup, almost like oil. I have no idea on where it is all set in the oil industry, but the idea to give into America is nothing less than a joke. They claimed that they have all the oil they need, so why would they need some handhold over oil? The one commercial thing I do know is that as the offer of oil increases the price goes down, as such the Middle East needs to take care of how they deal with this, because oil even as a commodity has a lifespan, once you get to the bottom of the barrel, the amount of oil you can still produce come close to that number shaped like an ‘O’ (hint: it is zero). 

So whilst I get that they all have needs, the idea that there might be an imbalanced amount towards one country is dangerous, but I get it, the UAE must do what is best for the UAE, Saudi Arabia must do what what is best for Saudi Arabia. But underneath all that we see “The UAE currently produces roughly 3.2 to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) under quotas but holds spare capacity of nearly 4.8 million bpd, Reuters news agency reported. Plans call for a hike in output toward 5 million bpd by next year.” And no one is looking at the amounts that might still be available for drilling. So what happens when that finishes? Everyone claps to attention but there is no clear vision for the future. And all the ‘influencers’ giving us the YouTube version of what comes tomorrow better find a good news source, because no one has an answer toward the ‘what now’ equation when the oils run out. 

So whilst we are getting “OPEC has already been under strain from repeated quota breaches by members such as Iraq and Nigeria, and from Russia’s inconsistent compliance within OPEC+. The UAE’s departure adds to that sense of fragmentation. In his analysis for Capital Economics,  Oxley warned that, in the medium term, if other producers with spare capacity “see the UAE successfully gaining flexibility and market share” outside OPEC, “others may follow.”” I understand that point of view, but I don’t think I can agree. The bully tactics of the United States will also give strength to Saudi Arabia as they might want to get issues resolved through Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Gabon and the Congo. There is definitely data that OPEC will be slightly weaker, but the oil that is gained in output will most likely go to China and the setting as of 9 April 2026, the UAE has intercepted and destroyed 537 ballistic missiles, 2,256 drone attacks and 26 cruise missiles fired from Iran, and that is mostly due to the acts of the United States. It is hard to hold them accountable as Iran attacked with the missiles, as such it is on Iran and as some state over 90% were allegedly aimed on civilian targets, as such the UAE demands reparations and so they should, but after that, should oil still be delivered to the instigator of these attacks? I don’t think it is that clear cut even as some state that Iran’s nuclear options were ludicrously limited (I don’t believe they were non-existent). So whilst the UAE could benefit from their withdrawal from OPEC, I see that the weak response from the gulf states towards the UAE is partially to blame for this. 

The conversation had some additional things (at https://theconversation.com/the-uae-is-leaving-the-opec-oil-cartel-what-could-that-mean-for-oil-prices-281734) here we see ‘The UAE is leaving the OPEC oil cartel. What could that mean for oil prices?’, we see here “the UAE is one of the world’s top ten oil producers. The country also has the capacity to increase its output by about one million barrels per day”, which amounts to 6 million barrels a week (one day of rest) and that gives us at least and additional half a billion dollars a week, something the UAE can likely use, especially if it goes towards a solution avoiding the Strait of Hormuz which I wrote about in ‘Sinking a dilemma’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/02/01/sinking-a-dilemma/) I have no idea if that is the path the UAE will sail, but that makes sense, the Strait and the issues with Iran are massively out of play and it also helps with the other gulf states as they (for a fee) use that solution and that is all before the massive attention the harbours of Abu Dhabi and Dubai will enjoy with all these loaded skippers who can now avoid Iranian waters. I only see upsides here, but that channel will require a serious amount cash, there is no doubt about that and it is not merely now, whenever Iran throws a tantrum, the strait becomes the bottleneck for all gulf states. Better to remove that problem completely.

So whilst we are given “OPEC’s influence on the oil price depends on coordinated changes in production. By agreeing to collectively limit, or to expand, the supply of oil in the market, OPEC can manipulate the price to meet its objectives. The UAE alone is the world’s eighth-largest oil producer, and accounts for about 4% of the world’s oil production.” As such I might imagine that the UAE has an issue with the imposed limits and that is before we consider if Das Island is under limits as well. As such it makes sense that the UAE ight want to leave OPEC, but let it be clear, Iran forced this on the rest of OPEC and as such their desperation will also amount to the wrath that these members have as their grip on maximized profits wane. 

Merely a small view on the setting and I get that not everyone agrees, not everyone is charmed by Appelstroop (a Dutch product). Have a great day.

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April 21, 2026 · 05:45

For a few Yuan more

So, yesterday I saw a MarketWatch article (at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-meaning-of-uae-reportedly-requesting-a-dollar-swap-line-6a40d630) where we see ‘The real meaning of UAE reportedly requesting a dollar swap line’, now don’t start running like a half baked cryotoboy to it’s mommy stating the world is ending (like we saw to weeks ago when some of them ran off to the airport), the byline gives us a clear “Economists believe the UAE is signaling it wants closer ties with allies, not a bailout” and I can agree with that. I have not seen seen any Emirati panic, or make bailout mentions. We are given “A report the United Arab Emirates requested a dollar swap line with the U.S. may be more a threat the Gulf nation could shift an alliance rather than a sign it’s about to run short of the American currency, observers said.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE central bank governor, Mohamed Balama,  requested a currency-swap line with the U.S. from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent while in Washington D.C. last week. The UAE is facing pressure from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though experts say its economy so far is strong enough to maintain a dollar peg.” It comes with the additional “Tim Ash, senior strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management, pointed out in a posting on X, that sovereigns do not request swap lines lightly. Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign relations agreed, also highlighting on X that he doesn’t believe UAE is in any emergency need of financial assistance, given it entered this conflict with huge holdings of U.S. Treasurys and significant forex reserves in excess of $250 billion. It’s important to note that the Emiratis have asked for a swap line and not a credit line.” And that is supported with graphics on ‘UAE forex reserves versus holdings of U.S. Treasurys, in billions of dollars.CFR’ and those numbers look good, even a non economist (like me) can see that the numbers of the UAE are good. Yet what we are also given is “Gave suggests, the UAE may be “sending a not-so-subtle message to the U.S., namely “leave the region and you will quickly be replaced by China.””

It might make sense and considering the damage that the United States Congress, a document produced on April 9th 2026, by Paul Kerr gives us “Iran’s nuclear program has for decades generated widespread concern that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons. According to past U.S. intelligence assessments, Tehran has the capacity to produce nuclear weapons at some point but has halted its nuclear weapons program and has not mastered all of the necessary technologies for building such weapons. The extent to which June 2025 and February 2026 Israeli and U.S. airstrikes affected Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons is unclear.” with the added “According to official U.S. assessments, Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003. This program’s goal, according to U.S. officials and the IAEA, was to develop an implosion-style nuclear weapon for Iran’s Shahab-3 ballistic missile. A 2025 public U.S. intelligence assessment stated that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon” and that the now-former Supreme Leader had “not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated on March 4, 2026, that the agency “never had information indicating that there was a structured systematic [Iranian] program to build or to construct a nuclear weapon.””

So, there was no real nuclear danger? And the Strait of Hormuz was open before this clambake started? It seems to me that the UAE (optionally with support of all other oil producing gulf nations) should give warning to not mess with their background, especially as it is roughly 7,000 miles away from Washington DC, as such no international waterways (connected) to the United States are in danger.

But in addition to the MarketWatch article, we see the Canadian DeepDive giving us (at https://thedeepdive.ca/uae-threatens-yuan-oil-trade-if-us-denies-dollar-lifeline-as-iran-war-drains-reserves/) ‘UAE Threatens Yuan Oil Trade if US Denies Dollar Lifeline as Iran War Drains Reserves’. The first part of opposition (by me) is that MarketWatch shows that the reserves are good. Basically DeepDive is not lying, reserves are seemingly being drained and that does not imply that the UAE reserves are in danger. But here we see “Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama brought the proposal to Federal Reserve officials and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington last week, the Journal reported. Abu Dhabi’s position, relayed through multiple officials: the war has strained its finances, dollar reserves could come under pressure, and if Washington does not provide a liquidity facility, the UAE may have little choice but to settle oil and gas trades in yuan or other non-dollar currencies. Emirati officials also told their US counterparts that Trump’s decision to attack Iran was what drew the country into the conflict to begin with. No formal application for a swap line has been submitted.” It is like the message Louis Gave, chief executive officer at Gavekal Research gave us, we merely get more information here. So like MarketWatch we see here “a bilateral currency swap with the Federal Reserve — would allow the UAE Central Bank to draw down dollars against dirhams at the prevailing exchange rate, effectively insuring against a hard-currency crunch without requiring emergency asset sales. 

The Fed currently holds standing arrangements of this kind with five central banks: the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank. Extending one to the UAE would mark a meaningful expansion of the Fed’s wartime financial commitments.” I am not enough of an economist to see the larger implications, but as I see it, President Trump started shitting in its economic backyard and now the people affected are saying (my of voicing it) “Stop this or we walk away from the US dollar in trade”, now you might think that I am overstating the ‘danger’ but consider that the US dollar is already under stress from a 39 trillion dollar debt (aka $39,000,000,000,000) and now when the Dollar trade offset is impacting trade other means of revenue would seemingly fall away, because it is never a simple setting (is it), and this would be the Home Run that China would love to see evolve. Do you really think this would be merely about oil? When oil starts, others will seek shelter and that is before others dump their $5 trillion (aka $5,000,000,000,000) in US treasury bonds. There have been noises that smaller amounts were ‘dismissed’ but the larger amounts are a worry for Wall Street, they are highly unlikely able to survive this pressure, as such the United States Administration better come up with a solution and quite fast. 

All this whilst Al Jazeera gives us ‘Iran war live: Uncertainty over talks, Trump insists deal to come ‘quickly’’ with the added “Iran says it has no plans to send negotiators to Pakistan for a new round of talks after the United States seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, President Donald Trump says US team, led by Vice President JD Vance, is on its way to Islamabad” So, one has no plans to send someone, whist the other states someone is on the way? How is that communicating? How is that any solution? That is the premise (given to us 14 minutes ago) that someone like China needs to dethrone the US dollar, so when China gives a solution in the next 24 hours, whilst President Trump starts commenting on his big beautiful solution for the world, the premise of the United States Dollar being removed from the oil trade becomes real. Do you really think that this is just about oil? Because this setting would require the better part of a decade to unwind. It is too early for me to say that the US dollar is out of this, but the other elements might make the pressures of the Dollar in the oil trade unmanageable. 

It is merely my point of view, no biggie. Have a great day, still 120 minutes until breakfast for me. I, hungry, all whilst it is lunchtime in Vancouver, what a bastards.

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April 1, 2026 · 15:02

And the losses continue

That is the setting that I now see coming. The losses are on the United States of America and their commander in chief (that guy in the White House) is to blame for what comes next. You see, there needs to be a consequence for being as stupid as some people are. To this effect I hand you the following. It was presented to me by SBS News (at https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/trump-tells-allies-to-go-get-your-own-oil-after-they-refuse-to-join-strikes-on-iran/chkb28a1q) where we see ‘Australia responds to Donald Trump’s ‘get your own oil’ tirade’ first there was the ignorant ploy which was presented to all of us by the BBC on March 8th 2026 (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dn3j04lydo) where we were given ‘Trump accuses Starmer of seeking to ‘join wars after we’ve already won’’ it was tactically a stupid move to make. He had no won yet and here he is blowing off the British navy (and its PM). This was given to us together with the quote ““The United Kingdom, our once Great Ally, maybe the Greatest of them all, is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday. “That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer – But we will remember.” We then get (on March 20th, by Al Jazeera at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/20/cowards-trump-slams-nato-over-lack-of-support-in-us-israel-war-on) the headline ‘‘Cowards’: Trump slams NATO over lack of support in US–Israel war on Iran’, which is of course a little weird as he had already proclaimed victory on March 8th, where we see “Trump has been calling for major US allies to help secure the safety of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz which Tehran has effectively blocked.” Here we get a slightly different setting. The attacks by the United States and Israel are not coming from a declaration war, President Trump needs US Congress for that. So NATO cannot get involved as the articles of war are almost clear as water and NATO does not have to get involved because there is no declaration of war. NATO could come to the aid of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and optionally Qatar if this was officially asked. But that comes with legislation of a slippery slope. NATO would have to go against its own ally the United States of America. Not a setting any of the NATO members are willing to entertain. It comes with the added ““Now that fight is militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk,” he wrote.” There he goes off again with his setting of a military won event. It seems that there was no victory and plenty of Iran was bombed but Iran never gave any noise of surrendering, in the meantime Saudi Arabia and the UAE are still attacked by Iran with missiles and drones. No act by either of them warrants that and no one seems to call Iran to the stage to hold Iran accountable. So now (through SBS) we get:

“Trump singled out the United Kingdom and France as unhelpful in the month-long war that has roiled global markets, driven up energy prices and seen Iran effectively close oil tanker traffic through the Strait. “All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Tuesday (local time).”

Here we get two new settings. The first one given is that we all buy American (never an option) or we take it from the strait of Hormuz under the guise of delayed courage. The second option is basically an invitation to plunder Iranian oil fields, which might be illegal in several ways. But there is a third option, likely overlooked by the United States.

Canada is the largest foreign supplier of oil to the United States, exporting roughly 97% of its crude oil exports—about 4.3 million barrels per day—to the U.S. in 2023. While the U.S. relies on Canadian heavy crude for many refineries, Canada is diversifying export routes via the trans mountain pipeline expansion. It is my suggestion that Canada delivers that oil to the Europe and the United Kingdom (at a price). This is direct revenue that Canada will enjoy and they don’t have to deal with some bully in the south. The UK being in the Commonwealth will likely like this solution (as will Australia) and if there is freedom to change venue (like in there is no contract stopping Canada) they can have a new customer making the United States less of a customer. We won’t bother the Middle East and both Europe, News Zealand and Australia will optionally this solution a few dollars per barrel cheaper (which is merely a speculative discount).

I wonder if the United States had a clue that this option is available to the countries and I reckon that President Trump looked at that setting from the start, did he not? It is a clear setting in the Art of War which was published around 2500 years ago. I feel stupid having to illuminate this track, but there is too much stupidity in the media, so I feel vindicated handing an optional smile solution to the Commonwealth, and I am always willing to hand any option so that PM Mark Carney does not have to deal with the United States of America. 

Oh, and the other lie that we see is “like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran,” but it was he who stopped the United Kingdom from sending help in the form of sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East, which came with the response “That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer” as such what is he crying about? 

In the meantime I considered through design two shapes of IP to be used on the roads of Iran to stop convoys, no bombing run required and as I see it, it would cause delay upon delay setting whatever comes from Russia via other roads delayed by weeks, if not months. And as far as I can see, the IP for harbours is still unchanged, so that is running along nicely. The rail version is still on route as well. So Iran is about to face its own forms of hardship beyond what they already have.

So whilst the losses continue, they are likely to hit the United States as well as Canadian oil will now find new roads into the hands of allies and President Trump clearly stated “buy from the U.S., we have plenty” as I see it, we would much rather buy it from Canada and if you have enough, you don’t need more oil from Canada and they can be the savior of the Commonwealth and Europe all at the same time. Sometimes life gives you a nice curveball.

So whilst the losses for the United States continue, they now have less to capture all over the globe and the next interest payment, which is projected to exceed $1 trillion in fiscal year 2026, or roughly 17% of total federal spending, is due soon.

Have a great day.

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March 17, 2026 · 18:32

Where is the trust?

That is most of the time the setting, so as ABC gives us (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-17/middle-east-live-updates-march-17-2026/106462358) “A tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile while anchored near the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, US President Donald Trump turned his ire on European allies who he claimed “weren’t that enthusiastic” about helping the US secure the passage. The threat of Iranian missiles and drones targeting oil tankers in the strait has effectively closed the shipping channel, amid the country’s conflict with the US and Israel.” With the added ‘Rockets and drones fired at US Embassy in Baghdad’ an hour ago. Consider that President Trump gave us (on march 8th, Politico) ‘Trump says Starmer seeking to join Iran war ‘after we’ve already won’’ so, that was 9 days ago? What changed? Then yesterday, the Guardian gives us (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/16/iran-war-live-updates-news-oil-trump-hormuz-dubai-airport-israel-targets) “As Donald Trump expresses frustration with countries declining to send warships to reopen the strait of Hormuz, the response remains muted among those he directly called upon.” And this happened a mere 4 hours ago. Where are the vessels of the United States? Where are their minesweepers? Simple questions and it defies knowledge why this is not front and centre everywhere. So when the Sydney Morning Herald adds spice to the setting (at https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/with-10-damning-words-pete-hegseth-says-the-quiet-part-out-loud-20260314-p5oafr.html) with ‘With 10 damning words, Pete Hegseth says the quiet part out loud’ where we see “US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth believes the media has not been sufficiently effusive about the success of the American military operation against Iran.

He had just finished speaking about the massive damage inflicted upon the regime in Tehran – its leadership, its missile stocks, its navy, its weapons infrastructure – when he turned his attention to the Pentagon press pack.” Now, I am willing to accept that I have not been part of any defence department for 43 years. I can assure you that a certain clarity is required in communication (from the defence side) and whilst I feel ready to blame the press on several matters, they are massively without blame here. The March 8th setting was the first damning setting. Then as I yesterday lighted on the ‘Just for fun’ setting that President Trump gave us and whilst the tactical setting that Kharg Island provides a sea port for the export of up to 90% of Iran’s oil products, as well as supplying storage for up to 30 million barrels. Bombing the hell out of it might have been essential, but it is a mere export point. There are 10 refineries doing the bidding of capturing oil and whilst I was able to device methods of stopping those settings, the clear message is to bomb those 10 locations to really put pressure on Iran. So when were they done? No, As I personally see it, President Trump what’s that oil this is the clear setting that is tactically seen and now that 2,500-5,000 boots are getting on the ground, that setting becomes the pressure point that Iran can put on the United States. So whilst I created IP to close harbours and disable trains, stopping the bulk of oil transits, it was merely one stage that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE could do to take pressure away from themselves and as such I gave Saudi Arabia and the UAE that IP. I did my thing to stop the war to go towards the gulf states. 

So what are we now left with?

Well, the SMH also takes care of that. We are given “As former CNN Pentagon reporter Barbara Starr noted, it’s possible that Ellison will be none-too-pleased about Hegseth’s implications.

Starr, a 21-year veteran of the defence beat, pointed out on X that CNN has sent personnel to combat zones for decades, with some even losing their lives. “You have a legal and moral obligation to defend the free press, even the ones you don’t personally like,” she told Hegseth.

As a former TV presenter before he was tasked with running the world’s most powerful military, press freedom should be Hegseth’s instinct. His comments today – and his vainglorious move to banish press photographers from his briefings – suggest he sees the media more as a vassal to serve his interests.” I can get behind that thought. As such there are sides to this entire setting that aren’t reported on this enough. The first one was that no formal declaration of war was ever given by the United States. As such we were given: “the Trump administration officials have offered various and conflicting explanations for the war, such as to ward off an imminent Iranian threat, to pre-empt Iranian retaliation against US assets after an expected Israeli attack on Iran” My issue here is that the international courts in The Hague might side with Iran concerning the seemingly unprovoked attacks by Iran (I know that is hilarious), Iran has been waging proxy wars for decades and that is the power of a proxy war. I reckon that the attacks by Israel and the United States give a bitter taste in the eyes of the law. Israel is decently clear because of all the attacks by Iran via Hamas and Hezbollah, but the idea given “to ward off an imminent Iranian threat” is laughable. It is like New Zealand attacking Australia, the Sopwith Camel doesn’t have the range to cross that distance and as far as I know New Zealand does not have an aircraft carrier. The same applies to Iran. There is no way that an attack can result from Iran. Even Lone Wolf attacks are unlikely to succeed and the United States still has their boy-scout organisations (FBI, CIA, DIA) in place, as such they can either do their job or they cannot. 

As such my speculative view was that the United States needed the oil that Iran has (for now). After failing to get to Canada’s rare earths (the 51st state attempt), Greenland resources (through failed annexation) and Venezuela oil (which is seem simply useless to the United States) the United States are now going for the Iranian oil. After that merely Russian oil remains (and Ukraine is doing something about that too) so what is left? I might be wrong in all this and there is a simple way to show me I am wrong. Merely bomb the 10 refineries. Several sources seemed to side with me on this as we are given ‘GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham Brags ‘We Are Going to Make a Ton of Money’ on Iran War’, which was given to us on March 9th. So as we were given “Graham seemingly suggested that the conflict with Iran as well as President Donald Trump’s abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro aim to help the United States take control over major oil reserves. “Venezuela and Iran have 31% of the world’s oil reserves. We’re going to have a partnership with 31% of the known reserves. This is China’s nightmare. This is a good investment,” he said.” As well as ““We’re going to blow the hell out of these people,” Graham said, adding that “nobody will threaten [the U.S.] in the Strait of Hormuz again.” He also said there could be a collapse of Iran’s leadership. “This regime is in a death throe now, it is gonna be on its knees, it’s going to fall, and when it falls we’re going to have peace like no other time,” he added.” It seems that after 9 days he was proven on nearly all fronts and now that it is out in the open that the United States needs oil (because they have so little at present) there is now the setting that the United States are too broke to seemingly pay their bills and as I see it, the moment the boots come on the ground, the media will report on nearly everything and that will put team Trump/Hegseth in a new folly and in the limelight, Because if I can figure this out in the last decade and now we get that Dave Kelly (JP Morgan, as per OCT2025) can figure this out, you should wonder why others couldn’t figure this out. I get that I am a no one in all this, but David Kelly is the Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Global Market Insights Strategy Team of JP Morgan and he is a voice to consider no matter how you slice it. 

So whilst we now get the Guardian (read: recently) give us “March 2026, Hegseth stated during a press briefing that US forces in Iran would show “no quarter, no mercy” to enemies. Analysts and Sen. Mark Kelly pointed out that a “no quarter” order—meaning to take no prisoners and kill them instead—is a direct violation of international law, specifically Article 23(d) of the 1907 Hague Convention IV.” All whilst media like the Conversation give us “Legal scholars have argued that Hegseth’s actions, particularly regarding the Venezuelan boat strikes and statements on the Iranian conflict, could expose him to investigations for violations of international and U.S. criminal law.” As such I reckon that both President Trump and Pete Hegseth fear the international courts. Iran optionally have a case here (I rely on optional as they have done plenty of bad things, among them attack Saudi Arabia without a formal declaration of war), so it makes sense that Pete Hegseth is in the stage that he wants to trivialize the international courts of law in the Hague, which is set through “The International Court of Justice, or colloquially the World Court, is the principal judicial organ of the United Nations (UN). It settles legal disputes submitted to it by states and provides advisory opinions on legal questions referred to it by other UN organs and specialized agencies. The ICJ is the only international court that adjudicates general disputes between countries, with its rulings and opinions serving as primary sources of international law. It is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations.” It was established in 1945 and it should now confuse all the readers on why António Guterres remains silent on this. It merely gives my thoughts on the United States being broke seeming validity. The person who attacks Israel at any option he gets, remained silent on too many settings we are seeing here. Even the rebuke on the settings of Pete Hegseth ‘attacking’ the international courts should have put him up in arms. There is the smallest notion that the media had not covered it, but I doubt that. As I see it, the seat that António Guterres hold is seen as one of the 100 most powerful seats in the world. It might not be as powerful as that uncomfortable seat that the pope has, but that would be a buttock conversation. 

So I think I have given you something to think about and consider why the bulk of the refineries are left untouched, because that creates the wealth of Iran and isn’t that the superiority of any army? We are given “Sun Tzu’s The Art of War emphasizes that the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting, making the destruction of an opponent’s economic base (or wealth of a nation) a superior strategy to direct physical conflict. Sun Tzu advises that a protracted war exhausts a state’s resources, dulls weapons, and dampens morale, meaning attacking an opponent’s economic ability to sustain a fight is crucial.” And I wrote about that on March 8th (and before that too, at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/03/08/ones-creative-process/) the story ‘Ones creative process’ gave you the setting that the harbours and railway of Iran should be destroyed and I was happy to hand the IP that could set that in a certain view of certainty to both Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Because I am just that sort of guy. It is never about personal profit in some stage of war and these two countries were hammered with drones and missiles. As such I did more than talk (are you watching this Pete Hegseth), I delivered. 

So you all have a great day and enjoy the day because Vancouver just joined us this Tuesday. 

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March 16, 2026 · 02:58

War

War is serious business, it comes with responsibilities and with an aftermath. Just like the fact that at present 2,500 soldiers are on route to Iran with a stated 2,500 soldiers to follow. I had a different scenario in mind, one that might not have required boots on the ground, But I am a no one. I don’t matter. But there is no fun in war. The consequences on both fronts tend to be horrible. I have always known that, I saw the impact personally and lets leave it at that. So the president who gave us ‘Trump accuses Starmer of seeking to ‘join wars after we’ve already won’’, we see that in the BBC (and many other newspapers, at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dn3j04lydo) and this was a week ago. Consider those words “join wars after we’ve already won” and a little over a day after we get “Donald Trump said on Saturday that the United States may carry out more strikes on Iran’s vital Kharg Island oil export hub “just for fun”, rejecting the prospect of a swift peace deal with Tehran.” He is going to hit a place ‘just for fun’? What is he? 12? It comes across as empty as me proclaiming that I’ll hit 15010 NE 36th St, Redmond, WA 98052, United States with a nuclear bomb, just so that Satya Nadella bends the knee and learn some manners concerning our privacy. It is empty, hollow and has no business in war statements. 

Now consider that President Trump gives us ‘Trump urges UK and other nations to send warships to Strait of Hormuz’ a mere 18 hours ago. So what do we see? The war is not won, the powers that be in the defence department of the United States of America have no idea what they are doing and that is the message they are sending to the gulf states? This is probably the first time that the gulf states are considering that USA bases on their lands are a bad idea. I wonder how long it will take China to offer a setting of peace by allowing their bases on these spaces. You see all things have consequences and the worst are the ones done by players who have no idea what they are doing. It is nice in a poker game, because they get plucked right from the bat. In war there are larger considerations. I am not one of those ‘Epstein’ conspiracy people. I am of the mind that America is desperate for the oil Iran has, which I scuttled in the last 2 days by voicing that the 10 refineries Iran has needed to be bombed (with due haste) and after they hit the gulf states, they might support my point of view. Because these refineries in the hands of the United States might have larger consequences, the ones we do not applaud or look forward to.

So, whilst we were given (by the BBC) that “Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Saturday that “many countries” would be sending warships in conjunction with the US to help keep the strait “open and safe”. He claimed “100% of Iran’s military capability” had already been destroyed, but that Tehran could still “send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close-range missile somewhere along, or in, this waterway”.” Which is nice as we were given as Politico gave us less than an hours ago ‘Gulf Arab states intercept new missiles and drones as Iran threatens to widen war’, which makes me wonder if President Trump knows the meaning of 100%. That implies they have all military capabilities scuttled (or drowned), but as attacks are still coming, and as the United States ‘needs’ others to come in and send warships, the setting of 100% is massively debatable. And we are given (via Politico at https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/15/gulf-arab-states-intercept-new-missiles-and-drones-as-iran-threatens-to-widen-war-00829221) “President Donald Trump said he hoped countries reliant on oil and gas exports would send warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz. None responded with firm commitments by Sunday, though some said they were considering action. Israel said it continued to strike Iran on Sunday as Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE told residents they were working to intercept incoming projectiles, a day after Iran threatened three Emirati ports, the first time it has done so against a neighboring country’s non-U.S. assets.” The game chances to some extent, as the united States is showing itself to be no closer to a clue on how to wage war, the pressure will soon come on Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE to end solutions for their citizens. It is my personal view that this is a setting that China could press to push the United States out of the Middle East. Soon they might actually become the minor player in a band with Russia and Iran to survive, where Iran could offer the USA a barrel of oil every time it states ‘Polly want a cracker’ OK, this is mean, but the setting is there and consider that it could show that his Department of War is a bigger failure then it was in 1949 when President Truman was one of the people to make it the Department of Defense. That is the setting we see today and I wonder if the United States is hungry for a president that is showing to (apparently) set personal gains over the needs of the people of the United States (just asking).

So when we look at the statement in the BBC article where we see “In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water. One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!” Which gives is the little thought “How many Minesweepers did the American Navy deploy?” Because that becomes the next setting. This is seen as the Japan Times (at https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/03/13/world/iran-laying-mines-hormuz-uk/) two days ago gives us ‘Iran has likely begun laying mines in Strait of Hormuz, U.K. says’ with “It’s becoming increasingly evident that Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the U.K., as Iran’s new supreme leader used his first comments to the media to say the critical waterway should stay closed.” And the Guardian gives us a mere 4 hours ago ‘UK may send ships and mine-hunting drones to help open strait of Hormuz, says Miliband’ with “Britain is considering sending ships and mine-hunting drones to the Middle East in an attempt to reopen the strait of Hormuz, Ed Miliband has said. The energy secretary confirmed on Sunday that ministers were talking to their allies about how the UK could help secure the vital waterway after the US president, Donald Trump, urged Britain and other countries to deploy ships to the region.” So now a small consideration, when did President Trump (or its lackey Pete Hegseth) give is the rundown on deploying minesweepers? They might not sound sexy, but they tend to keep shipping lanes decently free of mines. A critical need in War efforts and the strait of Hormuz is a bottleneck, as such essential. Where is that newscast? Just Asking?

I personally see several openings for China to become the settlers of hardship in the Gulf and as President Trump is making a mess of things, Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China might consider that this is the best time to kick the United States of America out of the Middle East, perhaps they will still have a base near Tel Aviv, but that would be about it. And that is speculation, or I prefer to think it is presumption. The mess that is shown over the last two weeks shows that the United States of America (with its Department of War) seemingly have lost their grips of reality, because who bombs an already bombed place ‘Just for fun’ consider that these bombs cost an alleged $200,000-$350,000 per run and that includes logistics plus an additional $18.95 for coffee and cakes. 

So (according to the BBC) President Trump gave on Saturday “He repeated his appeal in a post later on Saturday – extending it to all “the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait” – and said the US would provide “a lot” of support to those who participated.” So, why? He had won the war 100%, so why was this needed and for reference, how many minesweepers did the United States deploy before that point? Simple questions and anyone who attended the United States Naval Academy at Annapolis would have known this. So, why allegedly didn’t Pete Hegseth know this?

These might seem simple questions, but they have had a massive impact on the gulf states, especially the UAE as it has faced over 1,600 Iranian-launched drones have been engaged or detected by UAE air defenses as well as 294 ballistic missiles and 15 cruise missiles. Simple numbers that apparently the United Stated have had little say over, even if they defeated the IRGC 100%. As such there is a chance that the Chinese flag will proudly wave in gulf states soon enough. That is not set in stone, but tactically there is every chance of that, but what am I saying, the people at the United States Naval Academy at Annapolis should be telling Pete Hegseth this as well, whether he will tell President Trump is another matter. 

Have a great day.

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March 15, 2026 · 10:58

Feeding the press B

That is as simple as I see it. AP News gives us a mere two hours ago ‘Tehran claims the US attacked it from the UAE as Iran war enters its third week’, everyone knows this is a lie, because neither the UAE or Saudi Arabia allows attacks by the United States to start from their lands. This was said from the very beginning (before the bombing started). I reckon that this is their ‘retaliation’ for the UAE to close down the Iranian sites in the UAE (like a club, schools and the embassy staff reduced to a skeleton staff) and Iran is not happy about that and it is reacting like a disagreeable child. So we are given (at https://apnews.com/article/iran-iraq-us-trump-march-14-2026-oil-prices-a2399398b4c590995b814d7640362a11) “Hours later, there was no sign of an attack on Dubai’s Jebel Ali port — the Mideast’s busiest — or the Khalifa port in Abu Dhabi. But debris from an intercepted Iranian drone hitting an oil facility sparked a fire at the third port, in Fujairah.” And we are also given “A diplomatic adviser to the UAE’s president, Anwar Gargash, said on social media the country has the right to defend itself but “still prioritizes reason and logic, and continues exercising restraint” the escalation setting is already active as we are given “A U.S. official said Friday that 2,500 more Marines with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli were being sent to the Middle East, adding to the military’s largest buildup of warships and aircraft in the region in decades. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military plans. Marine Expeditionary Units can conduct amphibious landings but also specialize in bolstering security at embassies, evacuating civilians and providing disaster relief. The deployment doesn’t necessarily indicate that a ground operation will take place. The Wall Street Journal first reported the Marine deployment.” Other reports state that this is the first of two 2,500 military deployments. I reckon that it will fuel a few disasters. I am saying this because the media (not the most trustworthy ones) are giving us that the United States has no grounded plan and no strategy in place. I wonder if any general would push their troops under those conditions, but that is the setting. I merely wish that my IP would be released onto Iran by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. I believe that in trendy steps (set out by Sun Tzu) there is a stage any army will employ. You optionally FIRST attack infrastructure and transportation, then you come in guns blazing. Destroy Irans oil (so no income), then their infrastructure (so no resupplying) and then the blazing guns (not to be mistaken with Blazing Saddles, a tactic that Mel Brooks invented). When an army faces the setting of ‘this is all there is’ just before an army comes knocking. They tend to get demoralized really quickly, which is a setting that is never to be underestimated.

Then Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/iran-continues-intensified-attacks-across-gulf-in-us-israel-war-fallout) gives us ‘Iran continues intensified attacks across Gulf in US-Israeli war fallout’ where we see “Fire breaks out at UAE’s major Fujairah oil hub, as Iran vows retaliation for US attack on Kharg Island.” It is nice to see a nation that is clueless as the UAE has not aggressively acted against Iran, as such I am happy to give my IP to the UAE, so that they have options. So as we see “In the UAE’s Fujairah emirate, a fire broke out at a major bunkering hub after debris fell during the interception of a drone, the emirate’s media office said on Saturday. It added that a Jordanian citizen was lightly injured in the incident.” So how many drones and missiles were deployed? And Iran merely has one Jordanian (not even a UAE citizen) to show for this. How desperate have they become? And we are also given “Fujairah, outside the Strait of Hormuz, is the outlet for about one million barrels per ‌day of the UAE’s Murban crude oil – a volume equal to about 1 percent of world demand.” So, what is Iran planning? And all this before there are 5,000 boots on the ground. I reckon that if my solution takes away their 13,000 KM railway, they will learn what desperation really looks like. There is an argument that there is ‘validity’ in “Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Saturday that US interests in the UAE, including ports, docks and military locations, are legitimate targets after US forces attacked Iranian islands, Iranian state media reported.” You see, Iran launched 1,500 drones and over 250 missiles and they were largely on UAE targets, on civilian targets. As I see it, the IRGC has dealt with Hamas and Hezbollah lies for so long, they must think the rest of the world is comprise of fools. The media pool is not that big and the rest of the world will OK whatever the UAE will see as valid to keep their citizens safe. 

So as the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/13/iran-war-news-live-updates-us-israel-middle-east-crisis-latest) gives us ‘Oil targets in spotlight as Iran war enters second week – as it happened’, I and rather happy to have published ‘Regurgitation’ 20 hours ago showing Iran that Saudi Arabia has a nice option to take out all 10 refineries and it comes at a speculated cost of $50K-$100K per refinery (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/03/14/regurgitating/). So how much revenue would Iran lose through that. I personally believe that the IP is a steal at twice the price, but as I see it, $500K-$1M as investment to stop Iran getting its daily revenue of a estimated $45 million to $60 million. Invest 2% to stop the revenue of Iran? People might die happy going to sleep at night. And it makes for great headlines (the press wants its pound of meat). And there is a second setting that the Guardian gives. With “Trump said he had chosen not to wipe out the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island, which serves as the export terminal for 90% of Iran’s oil shipments. But he added: “Should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision.”” I have speculated on the fact that the United States are massively broke. First they try to go after Canada, then Greenland and then they take Venezuela (which has useless oil), now they are trying to get to the Iranian oil. And there are optional settings. There was  David Kelly, JP Morgan, OCT2025 stating ‘America is ‘going broke slowly’ and I had that setting already said it in ‘The meme of nothing’ which I wrote on December 17th 2024 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/12/17/the-meme-of-nothing/) and a few times before that. And still the media at large has not picked up on this, it is almost like the Epstein files made them blind of the reality of things and as I see it, the gulf states are the victim of this all, hence the idea to just take all the Iranian refineries out of the equation. It might not be subtle, but it seemingly gives Saudi Arabia and the UAE breathing space. Consider that the 38 trillion dollar debt gives the United States a more than 1 trillion dollar interest bill with projections showing it could exceed $2.1 trillion annually by 2036. Now consider that the United States collected $5.23 trillion in 2025. Now consider that over 19% of all collected taxation is used to pay for the ANNUAL interest. As such the American budget becomes less and less because America hasn’t been able to keep a budget since President Clinton, it has been that long and it is only getting worse for the people in the United States. That is the setting the media is avoiding. They are not even seriously debunking that setting, not since October 2025. I wonder why. 

Have a great day today.

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March 14, 2026 · 13:44

Regurgitating

That is the setting that I am faced with. It comes after a string of articles and LinkedIn messages thrown my way. The first setting is an article I wrote on June 14th 2025. It was called ‘Droning right along’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/06/14/droning-right-along/) and it was a speculative view on how Iran (a.k.a. Houthi terrorists) could have hit Aramco to such a degree. Of course as Iran is now attacking Saudi Arabia, this speculation could be staged AGAINST Iran and I have no trouble handing over the thoughts (optionally IP) to Saudi Arabia. To get to this stage it helps if you read the article ‘Droning right along’ so I don’t need to repeat myself (again and again). The setting comes from a how I saw a year ago, and way before then.

I was contemplating how these drones could be this ‘articulate’ and it came to me that these drones have their neighbours in electronic view as they got through motion after motion. So, as each light dot of the dragon is a drone, you can see how this is done, 2 checks 1, 3 checks 2, 4 checks 3 and 2 and as such we get a dragon. It is meticulously planned. For Iran we don’t need so much meticulous planning, we merely need to have the satellite image of a plant. Lets say the Persian Gulf Star Refinery, an Iranian oil refinery in the city of Bandar Abbas.

I set the premise of a master pilot (red square) and its slaves (squares) they have their slaves (dots) and as such one pilot manages in this case 2+12 slaves. When deployment commences and they are at their point of dispersal (the big globe) the other two squares (Blue and Magenta) take their slaves go to their destination and guide their slaves to their destinations too (this software already exists, hence the dragon image). Now as they reach their destination in 3-5 seconds They all explode (I am guessing two claymores per drone) and that will set most of the refinery on fire. It gives Iran no time to react, because when the sound comes to their ears it is already too late and these drones are relatively small and almost undetectable. As such I am speculating that less than $50K will do millions of damage and stops that refinery from creating any output for the near future. Do this 9 more times and the revenue creating streams of Iran are lost beyond believe and I still have hight hopes for my naval and railway IP to create additional millions of damage. So whilst we see that the United States and Israel are making victory claims. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and several others are still under attack and it is my believe that to hurt Iran requires the stopping of their export and it is more than mere export harbours (although that would stop some coins coming into their pockets). So, whilst we now see: “Japan must protect its own tankers as Trump demands an end to military freeloading. Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Takaichi to deploy the Self-Defense Forces to the Middle East.” Freeloading? Japan never attacked Iran and whilst we see Iran as the guilty party, there is no setting of freeloading. Anyway the United States claimed that this war was already won, as such the Gulf States might have difficult times ahead and whilst I am not a person of brawn, I do have the creative insight to do something and I am happily handing all this IP (or idea’s) to both Saudi Arabia and the UAE (I know no-one in Qatar) and I believe that Saudi Arabia and UAE specifically are being harmed beyond acceptable settings and as such I hand these ideas (optionally IP) to these two countries. Some may claim that they have won the war, I merely extend my knowledge to other so that they can win the war. And my perspective is simple. Infrastructure, transportation and manufacturing will be the best targets to stop Iran from what it is doing and their words ‘to not attack gulf states’ is as hollow as the victory claims by some. So I have to step up to aid those who might need it and to give clear signals that we stand with them  (in this case Saudi Arabia and the UAE) this idea goes to Saudi Arabia as it has faced Iranian attacks since long before March 25th 2022, as such it is only fair that they get to attack the refineries in Iran. I am an oversimplified assistant in all this. 

As such you all have a great day as I will enjoy the rest of my Saturday.

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March 6, 2026 · 14:25

Dangerous Speculation

This article is almost pure speculation. The people said what they did, as they always do, but the dots are connected differently. So as some dots will connect to a degree to one, there is nothing to stop anyone from connect the dots until they see a dragon, so beware. In the first, I have nearly always said that the United States of America was pretty much broke. The problem is that some connect the term ‘pretty much’ to a term thinking it can better that beast, but that is nearly always folly (court jester folly). So when we see that David Kelly gave us that the country is “going broke slowly.” No one really doubted this because going slowly can be almost any timeline. At present, the debt is 38.8 trillion. Then we get three quotes that kinda connect. The first one is “Trump is lying. I serve on the intelligence and armed services committees. There’s no intelligence that Iran posed an imminent threat to the U.S. or the American people” This allegedly comes from congressman Jason Crow. I cannot say for certain that he actually said that, so be aware and I use it, because it fits a picture, let’s say it is one of the dots. Then we get Anne Applebaum saying: “He does lie all of the time. And I find it fascinating (and sick) that he lies even “when he doesn’t need to”” Too many people and fat checks give her setting a thumbs up, but is it really connected? That becomes the question. The third statement comes from Bernie Sanders. He stated “Trump said we had to attack Iran because we can’t allow it ‘to have a nuclear weapon.’ Really? This is the same president who, in June, said: “Iran’s nuclear facilities have been obliterated.’ Vietnam. Iraq. Iran. Another lie. Another war.!” We saw the comments. We saw the outbursts and we saw the stage, Now, I am not saying that Iran is an innocent victim, there is enough to thwart that suggestion. Yet I have always accepted that if you do the right thing for the wrong reason that action becomes the debilitating act of corruption that we all face. I get a different picture. Americas is now (almost) broke, it will have to get its fingers on oil. Canada wasn’t giving up theirs, Europeans and Canadians were blocking America from getting its fingers on the spoils of Greenland and the oil from Venezuela is in the short term useless. So what remains? It is simple Russia and Iran, Iran is ‘relatively’ easy and Israel was able to help because Iran was a clear and present danger to the state of Israel. And now President Trump will accept someone ‘acceptable’ to the United States of America, as this person will allow America to drain the oil from Iran and the son of Ali Khamenei will never suffice. Trump says he wants to be involved in picking Iran’s next leader, and that is the leader that will allow America to drain its resources (at $0.10 per barrel) America is that desperate now (as I personally see it).

It has now and lately always been about the resources. America is as I see it, broke. And that is not a story any President is willing to tell its people, this is what you get when you cannot control Wall Street or the greed of people. And Iran is now paying that price. For the USA, the fact that Iran fired its missiles every where works, because as I see it, Iran isolated themselves perfectly , which works for President Trump, an isolated enemy has no friends to fall back onto and Russia cannot intervene, it has blocked itself and China doesn’t want to get into the middle of this. I reckon that on the side the fact that America is in this predicament works for the long game they have running, because President Trump exposed its weakness. They merely have to make sure that too much of that oil gives nowhere and China will come out victorious.

So is my setting that of the conspiracy theorist? Some say that the dots connected to a unicorn, not the realism that it was an anorexic rhino. When are dots dangerous? Well in the first is comes in waves and it often comes to images that aren’t anything. As such am I right (to a degree) or is the image too distorted due to sources? I let you decide that, but I gave at the beginning that there is a chance that I am writing an article “is almost pure speculation” so be weary of what you accept, even if the sources are spot on. It is one of the dangers of unrelated quotes. 

Have a great day. I am sad as my TV will take almost a week to arrive, no movies, no PS5. My life sucks (at present).

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