Tag Archives: Commonwealth

June 7, 2023 · 20:40

The boom what?

Yes, a few hours ago, the AL-Monitor gave me the news (and anyone else who reads it) that ‘Canada’s arms exports boom to Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar’ (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/canadas-arms-exports-boom-saudi-arabia-israel-qatar) now you think this is great news (as in size of the news), but you would be wrong. Canada, the other commonwealth nations as well as America are waking up to the coffee (optionally served by Tim Horton himself). When we read “most of the shipments coming from a $15 billion contract reached in 2014 but only approved for export by Canada’s current government” and you consider ‘Is it too little, too late?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/02/is-it-too-little-too-late/), which I wrote on June 2nd and you take the scale of the setting, you will see just how desperate the US is at present. Is it that Saudi Arabia is siding with BRICS? Is it because Saudi Arabia decided to cut production by a million barrels per day? Your guess is as good as mine, yet this is the setting and the Canadian BS line that it only got approved by the current government does not compute with me. This is the result of bad management on too many levels of US administration and now that the end-line is in view and the US is seeing that several nations, and a few not friendly to America are ahead of them. They are trying whatever they can to avert disaster and I am not sure if that is even possible at present. As I personally see it, China played the long game and they are now the expected winning team. Ahead in defence contracts with the KSA, ahead with infrastructure contracts with the KSA and Telecom contracts and now that the others are waking up, we get “The aims of Blinken’s trip, analysts say, include regaining influence with Riyadh over oil prices, fending off Chinese and Russian influence in the region and nurturing hopes for an eventual normalisation of Saudi Arabian-Israeli ties.” What a surprise! I wrote on June 3rd in ‘Would you believe that?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/03/would-you-believe-that/) where I mentioned Russia, China and Iran. I also gave a list where we see these 4 points now directly or indirectly mentioned. 

2. Oil prices.
3. BRICS membership.
4. Defence spendings lost.
5. Iranian diplomatic settings.

And it does not end there. The article (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/7/blinken-starts-saudi-arabia-visit-aimed-at-steadying-relations) also gives us “Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Washington, DC-based think tank, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that discouraging a closer Saudi Arabian-Chinese relationship is probably the most important element of Blinken’s visit.” With the underlining “[Blinken should explain] why Chinese interests do not align with Saudi Arabia and why closer relations in a strategic way inhibit closer relations with Washington”. You see, here is the delusional stage. They are thinking that America still has options. I personally believe it is too late for that, if that was the case then this stage would be handled in 2019 (2015 would have been better), not in 2023. As I see it China merely waited for the US and EU bungle this to the largest degree and that happened in 2020 as China successfully courted The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for a whole range of issues and with the US president labelling the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia a pariah, that moment was reached. It wasn’t merely the straw that broke the camels back, it inhabited the entire convoy of Camels and now the end-game is coming into focus. For me (where I am now) it would in part be nice if Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) pulls it off, but he will have to sweeten the deal by a massive amount, not merely 1-2 promises, but a whole range of issues on paper signed by the president of the United States and here Congress, as well as the Senate better get out of the way, the loss will be too great if they bungle this. Still the chances of success are slim as I see it. Too much has passed and even as the United Nations played its anti-Saudi cards it might not be enough. As such a whole range of issues that got started by a United Nations essay by someone no one cares about, just like that columnist, that names eludes me for now.

More of my ‘insane predictions’ as some trolls would say are now a matter of fact and slowly we see the facts placed on papers as what is ‘stated’, but last week there was none of this. As such is the media doing its job? Are they looking into matters? What else are they missing? For me the case does not change much, other than the chance that Amazon wakes up to the billions they are missing out of, for me Tencent Technologies is a viable solution, it might cost me a little, but that is nothing to what Amazon and Facebook will lose out of. Google decided not to go ahead in this direction and as I am seeing certain players evolving ideas I had on a few occasions, the timing is decent (but it could have been better), still in light of where America is heading, I should be thankful for every dollar I will get out of this deal and as I see it time is growing shorter and shorter. Still as we see America trying to avoid sinking on the spot, we are all in decent fear of how it hits us, because there is no way that the western world (as well as most Commonwealth nations) will not get hit to some extent. All because we had faith in ego driven idiots (sorry, I meant politicians).

So, how is all this playing out for you?

Enjoy the midweek, we are now at 50% of the next weekend timeline.

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May 7, 2023 · 12:11

Changing the narrative

That happens at times. Narratives are slightly altered, but in this case? The media to a much larger degree are changing the narrative of the strikes at the Writers Guild of America. Is it because of advertisement needs? Is it because the streaming corporations now have a hold on them? You tell me. In this I have two examples. The first is ABC and even though the headline is deceptive, they do give all the facts. 

Yet others are seemingly not doing that. They are all about the AI side, yet the two largest issues which are the unbelievable amount of underpaid writers as well as the streaming revenue where writers get next to nothing are massive issues. ABC does mention them but plenty of them do not. I saw at least a few of them copying other texts almost to the letter and no mention of streaming issues. Why is that? It is all nice that the WGA is on strike and picketing, but the media should at least take one small effort to hand the real issues and all of them to the public. The media has lost enough credibility as it is and as such we need to wake up (and fast). 

As I heard it new media (streaming) was not addressed satisfactory the last time around, because it was really new. So to read that some writers creating winning series need a government handout to get by is clearly insane. And it will cost Hollywood a lot more then they realise. What happens when the Commonwealth (Australia, Canada, United Kingdom) take over? What happens when the Dubai stage of G5 starts catering to global streaming? What happens when China with Tencent Technologies adjusts to this stream whilst paying a proper income? America might shun it all and stats that these series are not welcome, yet I believe that parts of Asia, Europe and the Middle East are ready for change and Hollywood better tarts realising really fast that the latter three players are close to 60% of their income stream. When that falls away it will be one of several multi billion income streams falling away. First Defence, then IT now streaming and as I see it both the UAE and China are chomping at the bit to take a slice of that income stage. 

So whilst the media is pondering how to cater to advertisers, they better realise that when that falls away they have nothing left. One of my IP will already hurt advertisement money to a decent amount, the streaming industry will hurt a lot more when the shift to any of the other three players come through. All stages that were out in the open for all to admire, that was until the media changed the narrative as I see it. I have no idea how long this strike will last, but at the end when writers vacate to a place where they end up having a decent income, plenty of series will collapse, perhaps not completely, but several will lose the little talent they had at their disposal. Yet for these providers there is still one option, a reality show based on republican politicians with real republican politicians. They will take any limelight that will have them and it could be hosted by Tucker Carlson, apparently he is looking for a job. So how is that future of streaming? Yes, there is an upcoming issue with AI, but that will take time. The fact that paid writers still require government handouts whilst these series make billions is disgusting and it will not take long until some will show the people this and plead that we cancel out streaming subscriptions. What happens when the people on mass agree?

Enjoy Sunday and consider the price of what you are watching on your streaming channel.

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April 3, 2023 · 00:48

I’ll buy that for a Yuan

It is a little unlike I stated things earlier, yet Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/program/counting-the-cost/2023/4/1/can-russia-and-china-succeed-in-dethroning-the-dollar) gives us ‘Can Russia and China succeed in dethroning the dollar?’ I cannot agree, because personally I believe that any partnership there will be facing an united front to dethrone that idea. Yet I made notions to some degree that there would be coming a new world order, America is exiting the stage on the right and with the debts they have it is game over for them. If only they had taken my warning 25 years ago and overhauled their tax system. I personally hoped that the new world order would include the Commonwealth (I am commonwealthian after all). Here, in Al Jazeera we see more but not the names. In some sources I saw a list of countries. Yet I personally believe that this list is most likely to include China, Saudi Arabia, India and personally I would include the Commonwealth, not merely the UK. And the issue is that China could pull this off, the US and EU are too weak, they are all hot air and they aren’t getting the job dome, they are both too deep into debt and the EU is dragging half a dozen members along who are slowing them down, they all want a slice of the pie and aren’t contributing enough. 

Yet in my view, I never considered dousing the dollar (perhaps my folly), and with oil being the ignored requirement Saudi Arabia becomes a required ally for that new order. India with its consumer base of one point four billion cannot be ignored either, that and the case that they have the ability to fill IT infrastructure needs nearly everywhere. There might be one or two other players China needs, but they will feel that inviting the Commonwealth might do the trick, as Canada in the west and Australia in the east will settle issues the assassination triangle will be filled. You know, I wrote about it. Segregation, Isolation, Assassination. America segregated itself with silly settings of free speech (Karen’s anyone? Proud boys and that list goes on), now they are one step away from becoming irrelevant and obsolete, if only they had acted these last to years. We saw someone start an insurrection, claiming to take the nation back. This act is now 2 years old and still the people behind it all are walking the streets free with in the end a porn star ‘saving’ America. That time is now showing to be their downfall, inactions from too many sides is hurting them bad and all along China kept moving slowly step by step and now that China has infrastructure and defence deals their goals are almost met. The wet merely grinds towards a halt through inactivity. The news is all around us and the media is carefully ignoring a lot of it. The benefit of stake holders I speculate.

I warned of parts of this well before 2019, well before covid and now that timeline is nearing completion. That all sounds nice, but am I correct? That would be a fair question, but consider that the larger deals out there involve China and Saudi Arabia, who of them has the US dollar? I am not saying this is essential, and as long as there is an alternative, these two might seek the alternative. And consider the two refineries that are commencing the build, where will the oil come from? Exactly, from Saudi Arabia and the peace process that China instigated will give them even more oil, we might shout loudly, but in the end, the US gave us the expression that was hanging around too many necks. Money talks and bullshit walks. And now others are telling the US to keep on walking.

I merely hope that this new order will exclude Russia (who is now presiding over the Security Council) and it will include the Commonwealth. Now consider that the United Nation Security Council (UNSC) has been around since 1945 and we are given “The Security Council’s five permanent members, below, have the power to veto any substantive resolution; this allows a permanent member to block adoption of a resolution, but not to prevent or end debate.” Now consider that NO ONE seemingly had the idea to remove the veto right of any permanent member who instigates a war for the duration of that war? For some reason that never dawned on any of them and the 5 members (China, United Kingdom, Russia, France and the United States) merely accepted that setting? How is that working out for them now?

The United States is now massively boxed in and to a much larger degree it is all due to their own inactions. As such there is every chance that the mediocre 5G technologies will soon see a lot more of Huawei, because they have been fully rolled out in China and Saudi Arabia, who had until recently (I didn’t recheck the numbers) a 5G network that is 700% faster than the US, how is that adding up to your view of a technology first nation? To be behind Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Canada? Al Jazeera raised a point that most were happily willing to bury anywhere, but I believe it is slightly too late for that. 

Enjoy the day and for your consideration there is a Canadian 16 year old blasting a whole range of records and she set at least two new world records. According to CBC, she is nowhere near done yet.

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March 20, 2023 · 00:23

Two sides to anything

Yes, there are two sides to anything, there is their side and there is your side, then some say the third side is the truth, but that tends to boil over to both other sides. What matters is what we need to believe and in this day and age this is getting harder and harder.

The issue is the CBC article ‘U.S. ran secret probe into China’s operations in Canada, new book alleges’ (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-dragon-lord-probe-book-1.6783063) here we get to two issues. The first is not if it is true, we can merely assume that this is the case. The issue is that this is an event that started 30 years ago. So was there no aftermath, was there an investigation, and were protocols upgraded? We are given “The book says the project, code-named Operation Dragon Lord, led to an unnerving takeaway: that Beijing’s activities in Canada represented a security threat to the United States”, now we do get that Americans are good at tall tales and not just when phishing, it happens with a rod and with other equipment too, but if there was a real threat this threat wasn’t just for the USA, it would have impacted the Commonwealth via Canada and Canada as well, so where is the follow up? But then we get the most damning of all quotes. With “Canada was aware of these threats for 25 years and has allowed them to manifest” we see Scott McGregor, a former RCMP intelligence official give out the lash in no insignificant way. There is the thought that politicians are merely late to the party, but that would be wrong. Something set this off and there are a few scenarios that come to mind. If someone told me that MY country was being used to spy on the US and my name was David Vigneault, the first question in my mind is not what are they spying on, but ‘What are they spying on here?’ And that is the larger stage, from that statement we get to the implied thought that Canada has been overrun by sleeper agents and deep cover installations that have been creating a cover for decades. So how many Chinese people came to Canada since then? I do not know the answer and out of 100 perhaps 1 is the fishy one, but these people have been able to apply a cover for decades, good luck finding them now.

Then we get “The five-page memo says the American probe examined this alleged alliance of convenience between Beijing and criminal groups” merely 5 pages? The fact that there was a memo is not the setting, the mention that it was 5 pages is a concern, 5 pages over 6 agencies implies (not proves) a minor work that is little more than a homework exercise. I cannot tell how much of a danger China is, and with the wok seemingly done on it, neither can you.

The BS document by the UN on Khashoggi was at least 106 pages, as such they hid their BS in ink, China wasn’t given that courtesy with the 5 pages the semi-interested parties took. Weird eh?

Lets be clear, we spy on them, they spy on us. That has been a given fact for a very long time, as such I am not overly bothered, but the idea that a local intelligence agency is dragging its feet for decades is concerning, not merely because of China spying, but who else has been spying on us and we merely shrugged? Now we see more and more Russian actions all over the place and we see very little action against these people and now we do have a problem and that problem is likely to be seen all over the Commonwealth. I have no delusions that they are alone in this, they are likely the first one to be found dragging their feet which is not good. So what happens next? I reckon that is known when the CSIS reports to parliament this Monday, and that is the earliest when we learn what will be next.

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March 7, 2023 · 23:04

That awesome moment

These moments happen to us all, some we see the moment we see them, some we see after a while when things sink in and there is a third option, but we need not think of that. This afternoon I was confronted with the first one by no one else by Arnold Schwarzenegger. That terminator, the Governator and he became so much more over time to so many of us. The man is a legend in his own time, optionally one of the most amazing governors in the history of the USA. And a lot of these actions were done before and after he was governor of California. To call him an actor is like referring to a Rolls Royce, a Bugatti, a Ferrari, a Aston Martin or a Bentley as a simple automobile. Some things cannot be defined, cannot be dimensionalised and we are all good with that, some exceptions break the consideration of any shape. We all get that (if not you need to brush up on things). 

So it all started with a Tweet (at https://t.co/P0VCDqPeb6) there we see the governator, slightly posh with all that silver in his beard. He gives us an interesting approach to stop hate, it takes 12 minutes and listening will be the best 12 minutes of this month, no exceptions (unless you got lucky with Laura Vandervoort). He talks about giving into hate and it was amazing. The man is so eloquent that he should be the US ambassador to the United Nations. Let me emphasise here that this is no reflection on Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield. I do not know her and I mean no disrespect to her. When you hear the words of Arnold they will hit you deep, much deeper than you think and that is the effect of a person like this. This is why he is so rare and legendary unique. 

So my Monday involved an amazing moment that I never saw coming. I do not give into hate, but the reminder that not doing so is not the easy path felt good, very good. You see, I had been noticing Islamaphobia to the larger extent in the US, Europe, and commonwealth nations. It is higher now then it was during the first crusades in 1095 and that is saying something. We were actively trying to kill one another. Christians as invaders and Muslims as defenders, all due to Pope Urban II and his posse of greed driven exploiters. Something needed to be done and I created IP for that approach. The fact that it impacts Facebook, Google and optionally Amazon is merely a side effect. For me that video was in part learning, in part confirming that I was right all along and in part in awe as I saw yet another side of Arnold Schwarzenegger. So be clever and watch those 12 minutes, the link is also given by YouTube (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsETTn7DehI). Even as he focusses on anti-semitism he actually addresses all kinds of hate and he does it well. So watch and learn, optionally a lot. Those 12 minutes were truly an awesome moment.

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February 24, 2023 · 20:41

That first step

That was the setting I was given when ABC decided to skip water with stones. The article (at https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/pressure-on-spy-boss-to-ease-up-on-foreign-interference/102010914) gives us ‘Pressure on spy boss to “ease up” on foreign interference’, a radio piece no less. It boils down to “In his annual threat assessment, the head of Australia’s security agency also revealed he’d been directly pressured by public servants, academics and businesspeople to “ease up” his focus on foreign influence” and apart from the one typo I saw, I also wonder who these people are. They are as I personally see them and as I have mentioned them the ‘stakeholders’ connected to corporations. I wonder who the Australian business people are, what THEY have to gain. I mentioned a long time ago that the media is filtered by Shareholders, stakeholders and advertisers. As I personally see it, it is the advertisers (with interests in Russia) and stakeholders with Russian connection that are the problem. In the first (and I apologise for the language) “Who the fuck do these academics and businesspeople think they are to oppose the security of Australia?” In the second, who are these public servants and business people? I think we need to put them out in the limelight and see what stakeholders become visible when we shake those trees. It is bbad enough that we are confronted with stakeholders stopping news from getting to the people, but when it comes to foreign influence in Australian governance, it becomes a whole new ball of wax and questions should be asked. The fact that this is now an issue, but we get limited exposure to this is another matter and we need to get this into the limelight. 

Mikey Mike (the spy catcher) has a bad enough setting as it is, lets cooperate with him, we owe him that much. He is trying to keep Australia safe and fair dinkum honest. In addition to that, if WE face it, make no mistake that there are equal issues in the United Kingdom, Canada (where currently unconfirmed rumours have it that Pierre Poilievre is engaging with trolls to get his visibility out there), India and optionally New Zealand, but the last reference is more speculation from me than fact. So Australia is not alone and as I see it Mike Burgess (ASIO),  David Vigneault (CSIS) and Ken McCallum (MI5) should pool resources and see which stakeholders have more than one shoreline they are fishing at, them and the direct connection they have. I think it is time to light up that collected Riffraff. I am still all for electing the actual traitors with a Accuracy International AXMC (the .338 edition) but apparently that is an illegal act (darn). And I admit, traitors make my blood boil and the blood gets a few degrees warmer when it is done for money. A first step is required and personally I think that illuminating these stakeholders will make them rush like the roaches they are for any place offering shades. When we have there visibility we can see who THEY are connected to. That does not mean that the connection are guilty, but it gives us the frame of an image and that image optionally colours the roadmap to something that could be a solution. Yes, there are issues with ‘could’ and ‘optional’ but in the dark we know nothing and we owe Mikey Mike more, or t least a stage where he can operate and three groups with self serving interests are not the way to go, especially when it is about the safety of a nation. It is even more when you consider that this could affect the whole Commonwealth. In this I could be wrong, I really could be, but should we allow this level of interference to go unattended to? I say no and it is time that you realise that in the Commonwealth stakeholders are given too much leeway and that needs to stop (or massively dampened). We need to realise that we have a problem and the first step to solving that problem is admitting we have one.

So have a great Friday and make your Friday a ‘Friyay’.

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February 21, 2023 · 23:47

The sad story in this

Yes, it all started early this morning when one source gave me certain facts, facts that will hopefully shown tomorrow as I need a telegram source. But related to this SBS gave us (at https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/attempted-recruitment-of-journalists-plan-to-dispose-of-activist-australias-spy-boss-threat-warning/6qbsejg0q) the story ‘Attempted recruitment of journalists, plan to ‘dispose of’ activist: Australia’s spy boss’ threat warning’ is only on the surface of this. We are given “ASIO director-general Mike Burgess has also revealed the agency foiled two plots by foreign governments to harm perceived dissidents living in Australia, including a plan to lure a human rights activist overseas where they could be “disposed of”” and that is fine. Only a fool goes against the word of Mikey Mike of the tradecraft. Yet it is seemingly incomplete. You see there is a second cog in play. That cog uses stupid people (you have to be stupid to spread disinformation on behalf of the Russian government) and this involves AUSTRALIANS. But about that more hopefully tomorrow when I get the second source with the telegram link. At that point I will be demanding (or forcefully requesting if they prefer that) action. So at that point the intensely phrased request will be towards both Director-General Paul Symon (ASIS) and director-general Mike Burgess (ASIO). You see Australians by Russians own definition against their press have become foreign agents and as an Australian I do not tolerate foreign agents to work on Australian soil, not even in a multicultural location as Sydney. 

And now the cog becomes a little more clear. These spreaders of disinformation are not voicing or expressing free will, they are agents for a foreign power giving their audience false information and that is a stage we cannot condone. The reason for voicing it now is that SBS is giving us parts now, but mostly because a foreign agent like that is too dangerous too be allowed to continue. As such I started this now. 

So even as we are given “Mr Burgess warned the countries engaging in espionage in Australia were varied, including authoritarian regimes but also nations “considered friends” of Canberra” the added cog that spreads disinformation might consider himself safe for now, but I will not have that. The support of Russia through lies is a rather nasty stage and this is seemingly happening all over the Commonwealth, as such there is a problem and it is larger than you think.

So, it is not a simple stage, but the sad story behind this is that the children and grandchildren of the people who fought the acts of Nazi Germany are now enabling a similar setting that is orchestrated by Russia and that is sad on several levels. Consider the Australian day march on January 26th where we all salute and cheer the military for their actions in past and present. These lines are now smitten with pro nazi sentiment, you tell me how sad that is for you because to the fallen it will be devastating, of that I have no doubt. A stage we see and we do not act, but that is hopefully about to change.

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February 18, 2023 · 19:23

A house by any other owner

OK, this is the third time I am raising this. I raised it twice before. The reason is that the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64547396) gives us the event a mere 7 hours ago by Nadine Yousif, BBC Toronto. So are they very late to the party, or is this a lot larger? I honestly cannot tell. The reason is that in the first the article is largely void of dates. In addition we get “A Canadian couple recently learned that their home was sold by fraudsters without their consent while they were out of town. Experts say theft of this nature is rare, but there has been a notable rise of similar cases in the country’s most populous city” the use of ‘recently’.  Really BBC, you could not be precise? Then we are given “The BC Land Title and Survey Authority (LTSA) said it is aware of two title fraud attempts since 2020, only one of which was successful. The public corporation added it only knows of one prior case in 2019, and two in 2008 and 2009”, really? The news gives a lot more recently, but here I might be in error as there are two forms and title fraud is seemingly less used. That is fair, but there is a much larger stage here now. So what happens when any act on title transfer or mortgage acquisition, the person acquiring it must get a biometrical scan? That gives us non-repudiation. That person and only that person could have done this. It is not the weirdest idea. A house tends to be over $500K and a house is a setting of ones identity. When we add the actuary as a control setting, we get a massive drop in these activities. The biometrics and photograph give a much larger stage for prosecution and optionally deportation of these criminals. I reckon the LTSA would applaud such a move as it secures and provides safety for those who own their property. There is still a risk that someone uses the stage to quickly get in under the radar, but the use of an actuary might dwindle this risk and those who tried this approach would soon find themselves looking for a place to live outside of any commonwealth nation, because this is happening in the United Kingdom and Australia. As such a stage needs to be set where the people can create a safety setting and keep their own little castle safe from exploitation by criminals. This is not a fool proof system. I get that. The old expression is “In confusion there is profit” an expression which started during WW2. But if we can lower the risk and 4 out of 5 people currently afflicted could avoid this nightmare scenario, it would be a win win situation. Are there better solutions? That is hard to say, all kinds of instances have used IT as a easy grab for all kinds of shortcuts and I am not aware which of these shortcuts apply to Canada, but the rise implies that there are weaknesses in this setting and as such the biometric stage might lower the risks for the Commonwealth. It is just an idea, but it took me less than an hour to think it up, consider that against the stage where we were given “by the time they found out that it had been stolen last June. As of February, the couple is still working through having their title on the home restored” a nightmare of at least 8 months, so I reckon my hour was well spend and if they can sway this as well as the demand for any title change two sets of biometrics are required, the stage becomes a non-option for criminals. You see, in the EU, they have biometrics on their passports. A second biometric could be scanned at the point of sale, which might take 24 hours (optionally less), the transgressor will not get a match, which now also suggests that this transgressor could be prosecuted, but that is merely an idea. The treasure is to keep realestate safe for its rightful owner. 

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February 1, 2023 · 14:02

Insecure Masturbation Fraternisers (IMF)

Yup, that is the slogan and to get there we need to take a little trip down memory lane before we get to the article that jogged my memories. You see, it all started on October 10th 2013 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2013/10/10/economic-management-through-newscasts/) where I gave the readers “The same day I get the news on a diplomatic escalation in the Netherlands, sky News UK comes with an entirely different matter. Two elements seemed to be in play. The IMF suddenly lifted the economic growth for the UK by 1.4% for 2013 and for 1.9% for 2014. Those are numbers that are beyond remarkable. Sky News showed Olivier Blanchard the Chief economist of the IMF to make this statement. It was interesting that the IMF calls on Christine Lagarde to give the bad news and Olivier gets to give the good news. There was a shimmer of hope for realism as Ed Conway, economic Editor at Sky News was happy to not reject the notion that the IMF have been lousy forecasters in the past to say the least”, as well as “‘Suddenly’ there was good news, a week before the debt ceiling needs to be raided, whilst the US is still in shutdown mode. Let us not forget that Greece, who also suddenly had ‘good’ news last week is still beyond broke, in addition France and Italy are still not in good shape. The biggest issue is that the UK forecast, which was +0.6%, which was a pretty good achievement to +1.4%. That boils down to a miscalculation of almost $18 Billion! That is a massive miscalculation. There is no indication that such errors were made. Consider that the IMF had high criticism towards the tactics by Chancellor George Osborne, UK’s faithful exchequer.” Are you clued in at present. There is now an indicator that the IMF is nothing more than a political presentation tool to hand out lollies for others to look away as credit limits are increased. It is one of the reasons I went towards Brexit. After the speech by Marky Mark of the British bank (aka Mark Carney, a Canadian no less), I saw the dangers of staying in the EU. Mario Draghi was using a Credit card for trillions after the first trillion was a miss. Now, that happens, solutions are selected hoping it will set the outcome to another stage. There is no fault there, but then he does it again for another 2 trillion. Wasn’t it Albert Einstein that stated that only a lunatic will do the same thing twice hoping for a different outcome? And it wasn’t just me, others had reservations too. There was no outcry when Mario Draghi was shown to be a member of an exclusive bank group. So how much did his friends end up with catering to that debt. Consider that bank bonds have a registration fee and commission. So how much commission did these two dozen people get over three trillion? I can tell you that is would be up to 2%, implying that two dozen people ended up with $600,000,000, not a bad run. So why should the UK pay for that?

Now that we are all caught up (to some extent) it is time to look at the article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64452995) giving us ‘UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF’. Now I am not stating that this is not the case, it could be. Yet when we look to 2013 and later, the IMF has played the wrong spades in this game. So when I see words like ‘expected’ and ‘only major economy’ after it took the IMF and Creepy LaStrange (I think that was her name) a year to admit that they made an error of well over $18,000,000,000 I have issues with anything they claim. And when I see “The IMF said the economy will contract by 0.6% in 2023, rather than grow slightly as previously predicted” without clarity I have issues. The numbers could be true, but with the Russian clambake in the Ukraine, the Covid issues (especially in China), the labour shortages and a few other elements that influences the issues, we merely see  “Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the UK outperformed many forecasts last year. But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the figures showed the UK “lagging behind our peers”” and charts and numbers how bad the UK is doing, but the problem is that the IMF (or Insecure Masturbation Fraternisers) have been too much like a political tool. They proclaim that Russia is getting a positive boost this year but we do not see that it might be mainly woodworkers to create the  126,650 coffins for lost troops, so their economy is up, but who pays that bill? And in the stage of presentation my issue is that these people are all about ‘forcing’ the UK back into the EU so that their GDP can be added to their credit limit. The EU is running out of credit card space, it has been for a year and the UK revenue is essential to turn that about and people need to wake up to the unaccountable overspending the EU is doing. At present the EU debt is well over €12 trillion  with several nations having too much debt. We all know about Greece with over 193% of GDP, Italy surpassed 150% of GDP and Portugal surpassed 125%, Spain is almost at 120%, and France is at almost 115%. The credit limits have been reached and it does not bode well, so all hands on deck forcing the UK back into the EU, but the truth is that once the hardship is passed (which will take some time), the UK will become the power player and the EU will be reduced to a third world nation. So basically at present (a personal view) the German debt of 80% of GDP is the only economy keeping the EU standing. That is not enough and I spoke about that in the past (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/) in ‘The finality of French freedom’ on the 7th of March 2017 where I wrote “Which is why France is a big deal, that whilst they represent one of four anchors keeping the Euro in place. With the British anchor removed, the stress on the three is intense, the Euro cannot continue with the remaining two anchors that is the desperate game Draghi is facing now. Weakness and non-decisions from 2012 onwards have caused this mess, and of course he is not done yet. As we see in Reuters, last Monday he stated “If non-high-tech companies adopt more innovative technology, that would provide a boost for European productivity“, speaking as the European Central Bank President last Monday, it that so? With what funds? Innovations requires money, such steps have a cost” here I compared the economy with a floating platform kept in place by 4 anchors. It used to be the UK, France, Germany and Italy. Now that the UK is gone, the platform is now in trouble as only the German anchor has any strength left. The economic sea is in turmoil and I already saw this in 2017. Then we got Covid and that stupid bear named Russia and now the economy is a problem, especially for the EU and when that breaks up, the US (Japan also) have no way to go but down and that is what they all fear, they can prolong this if they can bully the UK, but we have seen enough bullies. We all have had enough and that is why I chose Brexit. I could not predict Covid or Russia, but a next economic disaster is alway just past the horizon, there is always a next fire to put out and now the IMF wants to make matters look worse. As I see it, they need a whole range of better and more descriptive numbers. As it stands, at present I do not trust the IMF. Yes the UK could face another recession, but it will be nowhere as bad as the one the EU faces. In the end the UK is part of a Commonwealth and we all (Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) need to united to face the headwinds of the coming storm, we owe it to each other with the acts of irresponsibility we do not owe the EU and we do not owe the US. The US has had over a quarter of a century to overhaul their tax laws. I made mention on this as early as in the age of President George H. W. Bush (1998) now 25 years ago. I say enough is enough and the IMF better give us a lot more and a lot clearer numbers than what we see in the BBC article. That is my personal point of view on the matter.

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November 12, 2022 · 17:56

The other foot

A thought occurred, it happened earlier today, but my mind was not with the program that runs within me. You see we have a foot we prefer, almost like left handed and right handed, but the foot is less obvious, it is merely in the back of our minds, perhaps it is linked to instinct, perhaps it is less than that, but the setting exists. Yet what happens after? You see we are so of the mind that we walk we do that, and sometimes we run. Then we meet with people who tells us not to run, but to walk. Some have an actual concern. It can be safety, or merely the chance of danger. The other group gives us that setting do that we can be caught up to, we do not run faster than they do, it worries them. 

Yet there is another place. Where we rely on asymmetric gait, it is skipping. The interesting part is that skipping, even for 1-2 minutes a day strengthens you and increases your accuracy. Yet be honest. When was the last time you did that exercise? When do you no longer need to rely on increased strength and accuracy? You thought of that as a child’s game, did you not? 

The other foot is there too. What happens when you start concentrating on moving the other foot first? It is a simple question, did you ask yourself that? What happens when people state that there is no need, you are good as you walk and for a while you suddenly get compliments. Did you consider that someone does NOT want you to increase your mobility? In the 90’s my bosses did something similar. Convince me to NOT learn Oracle. It did not sit well with their exploitation of me, yet I did not learn that lesson until much later, too late actually. Yet in my twilight I have merely a few goals. Sell my IP and get a really nice stake in my retirement. And in good faith those who wronged me will never be allowed near my IP (Microsoft is not invited either). 

Yet the stage is not my IP, this stage is about you. When were you given a real option in the last two years? You see bosses are now no longer in charge (sort of). It is an employee setting and for the most they cannot get a good employee at present. EVERYONE is short of staff. As such this is the time to slam your fist on the table and set precise goals that they have to adhere to, although if you do that, you better deliver on their needs too. 

The AFR (at https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/why-we-don-t-have-enough-workers-to-fill-jobs-in-4-graphs-20220621-p5avcc) gives us in a first graph that the shortage increased by 30% in the last 2 years alone and it is not merely the ageing group. Bosses have short sold their staff for over a decade and now the invoice is due. In the blue collar stage it fluctuates between 20% and a whopping 74%. As such businesses on a global scale have a problem. Fortunately for them they have some options in other fields. Instead of relying on ‘Fake it until you make it’ they need to rely on ‘learn it until you lead it’ and there could be options all over the Commonwealth, Europe and even the US. Places like Oracle can start hiring trainees and after their first courses are passed they can be placed at their customers. Rotating every 6 month until someone ‘Shanghai’ them to become permanent employees. And this is not merely Oracle. There is Oracle, IBM, Alibaba Cloud, Amazon Web Services, end a few others.

The HR departments on a global scale need to alter their Modus Operandi it no longer works the way they think it does. The old days are over and you either adjust or you restrict your business. Of course players like Oracle need an alternative workforce, but there Universities and experienced oldies might be two streams of getting the workforce enabled. In addition they have the ability to enhance cyber knowledge all over the field making their people more enticing than the other ones. There the AFR had another view (at https://www.afr.com/technology/skills-shortage-a-handbrake-for-technology-companies-20220503-p5ai8r) and here we see ‘Skills shortage a ‘handbrake’ for technology companies’ which is merely the top-line. It is “The Australian Information Industry Association’s annual member survey found 75 per cent of technology companies are expecting their revenue to grow by at least 5 per cent this year but are concerned skills shortages will be a barrier to expanding their business.” And that is merely Australia. The commonwealth (especially UK and Canada) have growing issues and the US is in deep trouble and with their approach to everything it is now becoming the least interesting place to work. Plenty of California places (as well as the large players) have an option to syphon services via Canada, which is not a great solution, but better than nothing. In addition we see “AIIA chief executive Ron Gauci says his members are looking offshore to find specialist tech talent” and there we see the first problem, they rely on HR systems that did not evolve, that did not adjust and I see the same BS emails in my inbox to prove it, all half baked ‘invitations’ to come to Malta, they even pay the first month rent. Moving to a place where ‘others’ call the shots? You have got to be joking. When you are young and in the workplace we had 7 years ago, some people might give that a try. In todays setting it does not hold water and that is also a problem in Australia, the people who fell for that approach the last 6-10 years ago now have different stories and their friends are giving it a miss. But some places have options. They merely have to wake up and look at the equation from the other side to see that opportunities and options are there, merely for those willing to throw the gears in another speed setting and start with the other foot, it is seemingly that simple.

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