The mess we inherited is not one we asked for, whilst the dumbo’s of the World (all sitting in Washington DC) give us through the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0p4y9y48xo) ‘Trump warns ‘clock is ticking’ for Iran as peace progress stalls’ with the ‘threatening’ setting we are given through “They better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform. “TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” We are also given that Iran is attacking Saudi Arabia and the UAE again and the Middle East Monitor (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260517-saudi-arabia-is-pulling-europe-toward-a-gulf-helsinki-deal-with-iran-because-washington-failed/) ‘Saudi Arabia is pulling Europe toward a “Gulf Helsinki” deal with Iran — because Washington failed’ where we see the words of Tamer Ajrami giving us “I said clearly that Gulf states “have nothing but to talk to Iran now”. That was not idealism or goodwill. It was hard security math: the old formula is eroding. Bases do not protect the way people assumed, and guarantees shrink the moment they face a real test. Today, this is no longer an argument. It is a reality driven by markets before politics.” In an article that gives us “According to Western reporting, Saudi Arabia is floating something close to a “Gulf Helsinki Act” arrangement with Iran—modeled on the Helsinki process of the mid-1970s during the Cold War. It would not be just a Saudi–Iran deal. It would extend to the Gulf and the European Union, aiming to lock in non-aggression, structured economic normalization, and monitoring and implementation mechanisms.” So, as I personally see it, whilst President Trump is acting like the pussy he likes to grab. He made that statement in September 2005 on some tour. So whilst America is kept holding the bag, the entire economic and political setting comes in the hands of Europe and it is based on a proposed regional non-aggression and security framework initiated by Saudi Arabia, drawing inspiration from the 1975 Cold War-era Helsinki Accords. So this example is half a century old and still what would some call the stuff of legends and others will refer to it as an example that the United States could have used to further their own needs. But instead they pissed off the Persian bully and facing an American bully they both did what they do best (read: shout incriminations and attack the people around them). I am happy that I gave my solution to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the UAE (to destroy their infrastructure without resorting to heavy bombings, but the effect would have been equally devastating. A presented a recap in ‘In Summary’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/03/23/in-summary/) giving the total view (to some extent) where Iran’s infrastructure goes ‘Bye bye’.
But in all this Tamer Ajrami gives us “A Gulf–EU–Iran non-aggression arrangement without the United States creates a dangerous gap: the Gulf and Europe commit to non-aggression, Iran commits too, but Washington and Israel still retain the ability to strike Iran. What does the agreement do then? Does it become a nice document that collapses at the first air raid?” There is a simple (or simpler) setting. You see, Iran merely needs to leave the Gulf States alone, if it still attacks Europe would be faced to escalate actions against Iran and perhaps that would also shut down any Russian escalations we se towards Europe, because if it sees the damaging outcome of even one European strike Russia hopes to be wearing brown pants, instead of red pants hiding blood and wounds. But I still like the approach that the UAE had, but Iran made sure that they are not willing to talk peace now that the Barakah nuclear power plant has faced the attack of drones. I reckon that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have had it with Iran, there might no longer be an option to talk. I had the idea on December 14, 2021 when I wrote ‘Keeping my promise, part 1.’ It was a way to meltdown an Iranian nuclear react from the inside (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/12/14/keeping-my-promise-part-1/). It came to me as there are two certainties. One it was based on a Russian design and they want it to be implemented ‘exactly’ (for obvious reasons) and the fact that all engineers are struck with laziness, even when innovation might be called for. As such I created this untested solution, I am, after all not a nuclear physicist. Now that Iran attacked a nuclear power plant, I see no restriction to hand Saudi Arabia and the UAE access to this innovative strike in me and when a rector melts down it will be unavailable for work for decades to come. The design came with some warnings as three issues can only be resolved by a nuclear physicist, but its a freebee, so live with it. The setting of all this is that the world tires of Iran and there are over 2 billion people to wish they were somewhere else (not in this world). The time for talks and keeping nice is over. The Barakah attack clearly sets this out. But still gives us another setting and we see this with “Gulf states and Europe “bypass Washington” in practice. That would mean refusing the use of their airspace and territorial waters for any military or intelligence activity against Iran. And maybe refusing to enforce sanctions that destabilize the region and recreate the Hormuz shock. This is not a small move. It would be a strategic shift.” And as I see it, that strategic shift might be essential as this president is leaving his post (in the very near future) a nation that is about to become insolvent and it will not be able to afford even a Changli Freeman to replace the jeep required to move a general from points A to B. They will not be able to enforce anything, not without the money required for such an action. As I see it, they merely have the annexation of Iran to look forward to (well their bank managers see that as an option).
So whilst we are given (in the BBC article) “Trump’s message echoed his threat that a “whole civilisation” would die unless Iran agreed to a deal to end the war, shortly before the ceasefire was announced in early April. The president warned earlier this week that truce was on “massive life support” after rejecting Tehran’s demands, labelling them “totally unacceptable”.” It is my view that this will never happen, two bullies agreeing on a thing? I severely doubt it. As such the Gulf–EU–Iran non-aggression arrangement might be the only way out for Iran and at that point the United States and Israel has to halt its actions as well. They would face the larger consequences of both the Commonwealth and Europe if they don’t and I reckon that we will see a light show in Washington DC to keep people looking away from an ex-president running for his life, because that is the setting that comes with insolvency. Their will be no red carpet exit and with his (allegedly) 37% approval rating which seemingly comes through a 100% disapproval rating by Democrats and at least a 50% disapproval rating of Republicans no other option will be left to him and at that point it will take over a decade to mend the bridges President Trump burned between January 20, 2025 and May 1st 2026, that is the impact of what needs fixing and it will take decades to get it fixed, anyone thinking that this will be a done deal in one or two high placed meetings is delusional.
As I see it, it comes with a new stage, but this is top of mind thinking, there is no data or clear evidence in this. This has never happened before, but a new stage might be forming. It will be a stage where the new power table is set to Commonwealth, Europe and Gulf States. I reckon that the gulf states invited to that table are Saudi Arabia and the UAE. But as I see it, it will be a non-option to both China and Russia, we might not care what Russia thinks in this matter, but China is a different stage. It might not like that new power block to be in place. But that is a though I am merely having.
To all a great day and my breakfast is now 1800 seconds and 1000 steps away.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 