I was about to plant a new piece of IP (which will have to wait a day) when some news articles came to me and it gave me additional fodder in the picture my mind had already shaped.
“The media narrative surrounding the AI bubble focuses heavily on whether massive capital expenditures, circular financing deals, and high valuations in artificial intelligence mirror the 2000 dot-com crash or are backed by real revenue. Well, no, most of the media ‘elegantly’ stepped over all that lacking revenue, they did waste time on the expenditure that goes billions over billions. But as I see it, most ‘seemingly forgot’ about return on investment. So as I ‘accused’ these firms of building revenue by paying one another their revenue.“I saw today the image that was unable to make (lack of resources and lack of interest).”
Because if all that is counted as revenue for these companies, the US economy is in a worse state than we think it is (but that could be my wrongful view). Because this implies that the bulk of the US Economy is in merely 11 companies. So where are the other trillions? And if there are people who have critique on all this and my views. That is fair, my view is not an economic view. I merely see the I bubble for what it is, it is fake AI, not real as such that bubble is bursting in a really fake way. So when we get to “Major institutional voices (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan) and financial analyses (such as via Fidelity) counter that unlike the dot-com era, current mega-caps are funding massive capital expenditure out of actual, robust operating cash flow and high profit margins rather than speculative debt. Companies like Nvidia, Alphabet, and Meta continue to post substantial earnings, revenue growth, and hardware demand (such as high-bandwidth memory chips), though debates persist over whether the returns will justify the trillion-dollar multi-year buildout.” So whilst we see “unlike the dot-com era, current mega-caps are funding massive capital expenditure out of actual, robust operating cash flow and high profit margins rather than speculative debt” As I see it, the shenanigans that Oracle is pulling debates that view, it is a mere struggle to keep themselves on the right sight of the books. So as we are given “Investors wipe $2.5 trillion off Nasdaq”, so what is this? A balancing write off? (Source: Reuters) all whilst some other sources give us that “$2.3 trillion in market value wiped out” but the message is kinda clear. The bubble is bursting and no matter how you want to hide behind the infidelity of one person, there is a rather large bubble getting slashed because investors are now really scared for their easy life and there is no returning to that easy life.
So as Deutsche Welle comes with ‘Is the AI bubble bursting just as Anthropic goes public?’ (At https://www.dw.com/en/is-the-ai-bubble-bursting-just-as-anthropic-goes-public/a-79896537), so in this age of fake AI, all whilst “Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated that 20% to 30% of Microsoft’s code is written by artificial intelligence. He also noted that code acceptance rates for AI suggestions sit around 30% to 40% and are growing steadily” and at this point no one is seeking deeper into the Microsoft 365 and whether this is part of ‘their’ AI setting. And consider that this is merely the first, the more these firms ‘embrace’ their fake AI, the larger the setting that they will repeat themselves and create a while range of zero day issues. So how safe do you feel? Important to notice is that this is MY speculations, so please don’t take my word seriously gospel. I merely worked in IT since 1985, So I have been around the block several times and at present I have no idea where this is going.
So, last week we saw “Last week, after the Democrats secured control of the United States Congress in the midterm elections, technology stocks sold off dramatically, with the Magnificent Seven — including Meta, Apple, Amazon and Tesla — losing more than $1 trillion in value in a single trading day.” Can anyone explain to me how politics can have such an impact on market value?
Then they give us this bagel, which shows the ROI setting and these tech forms are a little short, roughly $230B and when you say it fast it doesn’t sound like much, but it also shows that this so called bubble will drain investor of (I reckon) a few trillion more and whilst I have been saying this since January 29th 2025. In ‘And the bubble said ‘Bang’’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/29/and-the-bubble-said-bang/) and it was an earlier ‘write off’ so how many more ‘write off’ moments will we get until someone says the words ‘He have a bubble and it has burst’?
It is a simple question, but as I see it, there are no real winners ate present, only the proclaimers of AI, I have already spoken about that too often and it is tiring. I feel more fun looking at my next article on IP, much more fun. So you all have a great day today.
