Tag Archives: Finance

August 7, 2026 · 03:28

UAE making Japan bigger

OK, a little exaggerated but it sounds true, which is what the Japanese Times tells me (at https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/08/06/uae-fund-data-center/) where we see ‘UAE fund weighs $6.3 billion AI data center investment in Japan’ Japan has approximately 250 data centres, making it a top 10 player in data centres and now that the UAE is setting the funds for “Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment would lead the investment into a 500-megawatt project in Akita Prefecture, which may include other foreign and domestic investors, the person said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. Once completed, it could become the largest data center in Japan. The talks with the Gulf state underscore growing global interest in securing critical AI assets in countries viewed as relatively insulated from geopolitical tensions.” In addition we are given “Total investment surrounding the project, including by suppliers and other companies looking to establish operations nearby, could reach as much as ¥2 trillion, the person said. A consortium of Japanese companies would likely handle construction and related infrastructure, they added. As U.S.-China tensions escalate and wars in Europe and the Middle East reshape supply chains, Japan is increasingly viewed by global investors as a stable market with relatively low geopolitical risks.”

That all makes sense and for the UAE to diversify its coffers makes perfect sense to me, so as the article ends with “Tokyo’s policy has rendered some substantial results. Major chip firms including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Tower Semiconductor and Micron Technology have invested billions of dollars in the country in recent years. The oil-rich UAE, meanwhile, has emerged as one the leading global investors in AI and its underlying infrastructure. State-backed investor MGX, a joint venture between Mubadala and G42, has been a key vehicle through which Abu Dhabi bets on AI. MGX recently completed its acquisition of Aligned Data Centers, which has an enterprise value of $40 billion, alongside BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Platform and the Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Partnership.”

As such we might come to the conclusion that the UAE and in specific MGX is making headways in data centres and I can only speculate on the recent acquisition with BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners who now have taken over 100% of Aligned Data Centers from Macquarie Asset Management, as such I reckon that there are more settings to come and I can only speculate regarding the where and the why.

So whilst you mull over this tiny gem of information, I wish you all a good night, its now 03:25, so another 240 minutes until I get to enjoy breakfast. I wish you all a marvelous day.

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August 5, 2026 · 20:42

Wrong footing?

This happens, we all get our footing wrong, even I. As such I had my ‘ideas’ about Ahmed Mawlana, nothing bad. But whilst we see ‘Has the UAE’s meteoric rise reached its limit?’ Which is given to us by the Middle East Eye (at https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/has-uaes-meteoric-rise-reached-its-limit), so Ahmed Mawlana is a researcher specialising in International Relations and Security Affairs. He holds an MA in international relations from Sabahattin Zaim University in Istanbul, so as I see it, he is no grocery wannabe. And I am fine with that. So as we see “In less than two decades, Abu Dhabi has transformed itself from a relatively low-profile Gulf state into one of the region’s most assertive powers. How did a country of around one million citizens acquire such an outsized regional role? The UAE’s rise is linked to its ability to capitalise on successive regional crises, beginning with the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, accelerating with the Arab Spring, and gaining strength amid Washington’s declining engagement in the Middle East.” He ends the article with “Ultimately, the principal constraint on the Emirati model is structural. The UAE possesses immense financial resources and an extensive network of international partnerships, but it remains a small state with a limited citizen population and little strategic depth – making it difficult to sustain prolonged regional crises, or to confront larger powers directly.”

I get what he write and there is logic in this, but I also see what the UAE has achieved and whilst I was never there, YouTube has been very vocal (it’s YouTube creators) to show us all what the UAE has achieved. In support of my way of thinking is the Reuters article that gives us ‘UAE non-oil growth hits four-month high in July, PMI shows’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-non-oil-growth-hits-four-month-high-july-pmi-shows-2026-08-05/) where we see: “The United Arab Emirates’ non-oil private sector grew at its fastest pace in four months in July as new orders climbed to a ‌five-month high and export business rose, a business survey showed on Wednesday.” As I see it, the non-oil part is essential here. We see the growing tourism and service settings. We see additional maritime growth and that is merely the beginning. The UAE has a lot to gain in all this, which is why I have ‘issues’ with the setting of Ahmed Mawlana. He might be correct, but the term “meteoric rise reached its limit” can be explained in a few ways. One of them is that the stellar growth might be gone. I don’t think so, especially as tourism can still grow a lot more, but that is possible. Still as we see Real Estate and tourism grow, there is still the difference between strong growth and meteoric rise, so whilst the second has reached its peak the first one is still within the grasp of the UAE. Personally I think it is becoming time to make Iran extinct. A shameful thought to have, nut they did that to themselves and I created 4-5 military IP’s to make something according to that need happen (I am more of a surgical instrument) why kill when you can destroy their abilities and commodities so they destroy themselves. I am at times that simple.

So whilst we get the setting that Reuters gives (just a few) 

  • Firms linked this to easing regional tensions and stronger activity across the Gulf.
  • Employment returned to growth after June’s steep drop.
  • Business confidence weakened for a third straight month to its lowest since March.
  • Backlogs of work rose at the strongest rate in four months, reflecting firmer demand and freight congestion.
  • Input cost inflation edged closer to April’s recent peak.
  • Firms raised selling prices again, but only mildly.

Which is also slightly debatable. For instance we see “Business confidence weakened for a third straight month to its lowest since March”, which I accept as one of the given facts, but at this point I wonder how that confidence level is when compared to the US economy setting of the United States? This question is formed as Al Jazeera gives us ‘Why did the US economy slow down?’ (at https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/4/why-did-the-us-economy-slow-down) where we see “The US economy slowed more than expected, but it’s not because Americans stopped spending. So what really happened? The answer lies in how economic growth is measured, and America’s massive investment in artificial intelligence”, yet the other (not given fact) is that players like Deloitte give us “While broad corporate spending is skyrocketing, tangible financial returns often take two to four years to materialize instead of the usual 7 to 12 months for standard tech” and I have a problem with that. Some sources give us “Studies indicate that up to 95% of early generative AI pilots struggle to show a clear positive financial return because tools are deployed without changing underlying workflow” and I see the class actions forming and that is messing with the RoI (Return on Investment) as well. All this is making the US Economy not a volleyball but a paintball at best and anyone who gets hit by its paint is heading for stormy weathers (not the girl), although the effect are the same, but not as pleasurable. In all this, there is optionally a cause for not seeing meteoric rise but strong growth is still on the table, no matter how muddy the United States administration makes some ‘facts’ look. And in all this, I till see plenty of options for the UAE, I merely think that they need to go of the AI horse. The AI is lousy and all AI is Fake AI (as I personally see it), so why bury yourself in 3-8 years of turnaround (I definitely disagree with the Deloitte numbers. I reckon that the UAE has a better setting throwing themselves on actual programming and creating stuff that has the turnaround time of 7-12 months. Let big tech break their teeth on tech that is over a decade away. They might survive, others will not and I do not trust the settings that the United States are throwing out there. Too much of it is not validated and as I perceive it not verified in any way. The UAE has actual issues to face (that terrorist state Iran) and holding their coffers in a 3 to 8 years wait state is no solution. 

Perhaps I am seeing this wrong, these fake AI have real options, ML and DL are great tools (I use the term DML as they are combining the two) and I have seen great solutions, but that setting in a 3-7 years setting is not a real solution. Consider the issues that some are reconsidering idea that are out there ‘How Commonwealth Bank and Microsoft are reimagining the future of customer service’, which I see as nothing more that the setting that NICE and CX One already have. So whilst that is happening. I wrote ‘Two paths to similar stages’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/30/two-paths-to-similar-stages/) in March 3022, so it is not a last minute idea. There was more, and in light of the Tourism settings in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the idea started to form to have a Muslim solution (I meant Arabic) that industry is exploding to a larger degree whilst they are all pushing American solutions which are not 100% covering Islamic rules and ideas. That should stop and I saw an opening for the UAE and Saudi Arabia to get one solution in the field that would fuel both nations, optionally Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and a few other places. So whilst Microsoft had this inflated idea with “CBA will work with Microsoft to drive greater customer benefits through wider adoption of generative AI (Gen AI) and ongoing cyber security initiatives” I saw this idea 4 years earlier whilst not using AI, because it would be decades before we are there. 

Just thinking out loud. Have a great day today

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June 25, 2026 · 15:40

Expect bubbles

That is what I was introduced to (really early) this morning and I saw a few articles, but one gave me an interesting option. So lets take a look. (At https://stocksdownunder.com/ai-bubble-chip-stocks-crash/) we are given ‘Is the AI Bubble Bursting? Why Nvidia, Micron and Chip Stocks Are Crashing’ it holds a lot of record, but I was taken with this setting ‘Is the AI Bubble Bursting or Just a Healthy Reset?’ With the text “Here is the honest answer: it could be either, and the truth is probably somewhere in between. The bear case is simple. Micron has more than tripled in value this year, and a run like that leaves very little room for disappointment. The bull case is that demand for AI memory and data centres is still strong, and analysts note the selling looked more like a rush for the exits than a real change in the companies’ earnings. We lean towards this being a crowded trade getting stress-tested, not the end of the AI story. But if the selling spreads well beyond chip stocks, that view needs to change quickly” (and at this point I learned that whoever was working on this is a noob and an idiot for his CSS settings as they are all over the place) But that is matter for another day. The “It could be either” and a third setting was the one I referred to a few days ago when simply Wall Street put out an unsigned piece that Palantir could be overvalued for well over 20%, as such this market has some people in it that would like to short stock as that is where their dollars come flying. And as we see in the article “Investors simply pay less for today for profits that may not arrive for years.” And as I see it, some investors are not beyond shorting stock if it fuels their profits, so a third reason is found. I am still on the side of the AI bubble shorting, but n that case a healthy reset of trillions is not out of the scope of things and the marshmallow field of fictive unicorns is rearing its ugly head that comes with the “late arrival of profits” and now that the investors are wondering what they got into, some will see that they are fueling a stock market that cannot survive delay upon delay and with AI not yet existing that is where it is all heading. So it is time to get another view and we see this in Clean Technica (at https://cleantechnica.com/2026/06/24/trillion-dollar-ai-bubble-on-verge-of-popping/) where we see ‘Trillion-Dollar AI Bubble On Verge Of Popping?’ And I am not adding it, because this is in part the view I have, what we see is “Yann LeCun, one of the “Godfathers of AI,” is one of the notable people who think the industry has been far too overhyped and misunderstood. He’s been pointing out that AI costs could be much higher than the amount of money customers are willing to pay for it.” It comes (also) with “Labs like OpenAI and Anthropic are going to have to increase prices, they’re going to have to cut costs, or there’s going to be a big bubble explosion,” and ““In their pursuit to boost productivity, become less reliant on human labor, and reassure investors that they’re riding the cutting edge of tech, some nagging issues are cropping up,” Futurism adds, and “over-relying on AI can prove disastrous for organizational knowledge, the critical business insights companies need to make strategic decisions.”” This is the setting that is actually fueling both the bubble burst as well as a healthy reset all at the same time and I reckon that for OpenAI, Anthropic, Grok and Microsoft that will most likely happen in the least interesting time and they will all ‘suffer’ for it, so consider when this bubble loses $4,000,000,000,000 – $5,000,000,000,000 (writing the word trillion makes it trivial) because that is likely to happen and the market is figuring out what I saw over 1-2 years ago, when you realise that all AI is fake, it is easy and let there be no mistake, all AI is fake. You see, what we are seeing is Deeper Machine Learning and Large Language Models and these are great tools and they will create markets for themself, but the people are expecting AI and that is just not true. So as AP News gives us “The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite fell 110.40 points, or 0.4%, to 25,476.64. A 2.3% drop in Microsoft was the heaviest weight on the market. Oracle slumped 4.6%. Many large tech companies have been behind Wall Street’s record-setting run throughout the year, but analysts have warned their valuations may have become stretched.” I personally reckon that someone is likely playing a stock short game with both Oracle and Palantir. You see, no matter how you slice it, the proper Data needs for DML/LLM solutions require data technology and these two are refined into the core of that and optionally there is Snowflake as well, but it might not yet be large enough to get the attention of the stock shorting DoDo’s (lets call them that).

Jawlah, a prominent Arabic digital media platform and news organization focused on venture capital (VC), startups, and the entrepreneurial ecosystem in Saudi Arabia and the broader MENA region (Middle East/ North Africa) gives us (at https://jawlah.co/en/59212) where we see ‘Fears of an AI bubble burst after a sharp tech stock sell-off’, which I reckon is fair enough. But the interesting part is where we see “The decline followed a near-800% surge in Micron’s stock over the past year, driven largely by rising demand for memory chips needed to run AI globally — gains some analysts believe may have overestimated expected returns”, as well as “Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, explains the volatility: “The market swings between a wave of optimism that AI will change everything and renewed skepticism that it is just an expensive bubble whose returns do not justify the current spending.”.” And I am here in opposition, it is not “renewed skepticism”, it is the mere setting that those willing to hand out trillions should never have been so optimistic without proper case files and validation, so whilst they might get their cash back in 2045 when actual AI comes into play, the rest until then will be massively overvalued.  As I, as a non-believer, see it, someone listened to a sales person with the mindset of a second hand car salesman that stated “Look, we have AI” and the rest followed like crazy to get those coins rolling their way and now we are optionally seeing the start of an AI bubble. I am trodding carefully because there is disagreement whether it is an actual bubble popping. I reckon it requires an actual econometrist to call that for real and I ain’t one of those actuary types (nowhere near).

What we see is that we are given “it has erased approximately $2.7 trillion in market value across AI-linked companies”, all whilst the reasoning is “massive debt-funded data center expansions, mounting hardware costs, and growing investor scrutiny over artificial intelligence’s actual return on investment” which (as I personally see it) is only partially true. As I see it, the data sovereignty in Europe and the Commonwealth is setting the drain on the Return on Investments (ROI) towards these massive debt-funded data center expansions and that will hit business in the United States a lot harder than anywhere else. You see the United States has over 4,000 data centers. So how many are still under debt? And when a response group of over 700 million people walk away from that, with an additional optional population of up to 2.7 billion people (that is the complete Commonwealth), so it will not be that much, but I reckon at least 50%, that is 4,000 centers that will now lose close to 2 billion people (or 2,000 million), so where is that unused potential going? That is what I saw almost a year ago (actually a lot earlier, but until President Trump come, most people let the states quo continue) and that has now changed. So as others players (like DayOne) and there is someone in Sweden who saw this coming a few years ago and put his money where his thoughts were. I forgot that players name, but they are likely to make massive gains. All out off the hands of the United States. That part is not represented in any of these articles, but it is a factor in all of this.

So, we are expecting bubbles and I reckon a few other setting will rear its ugly heads, but the markets will all attribute this towards bubbles, because some is massively unhappy to attribute the other losses towards an US Administration that should have known better, but that is merely me looking at other factors in all this. The larger issue in all this is that some solutions are likely to be rather good and I hope that they are allowed to continue, because investors and speculators will want their returns at whatever expense they can get and some will suffer because of that greed driven taint in all this. But I might be the next village idiot in all this. Just like that seer in the 3rd century that saw large walls of stone with thousands of people and it was written off as a lying loon (he saw the Altiero Spinelli building in Brussels) but that is a story for another day.

So whatever you do, don’t rush into or out of anything without clearly seeing the ramifications. Have a great day today.

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April 29, 2026 · 11:05

The bad news

That is what was going through my mind the day before yesterday and yesterday I saw something by Al Jazeera who illustrates it to you in a more profound way. They ‘quoted’ “Iran says US no longer in position to ’dictate’ policy to other nations”

I don’t give in to the setting to Iran on anything because they are regarded as utterly evil by me, but as I see it, this one they got right. You see, the United States is as far as I see it the United States is insolvent. All other parties are so ready to debate the fine ‘tactics’ of what is insolvent. But the setting is now that the United States is a liability of 47.1 trillion dollars (according to some), their debt has now surpassed to 38 trillion and if the first set of numbers is correct, the interest is will in 2026 surpass $1,500,000,000,000 and that is a whole range of zero’s. To understand how I got to be this clever (the Dutch singer Herman Brood disagrees because he told me that I would never be clever). I wrote the story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2014/08/26/about-america-chapter-11/) ‘About America, chapter 11’, I wrote it on August 26th 2014. You think that this was too early, but at that point the debt had surpassed 18 trillion then and there was no exit strategy, there still isn’t one, but the debt has more than doubled and the IRS allegedly collected approximately $5.23 trillion, that implies that a third is spend on interest and in that setting President Trump wants to spend a trillion more in defense spending? You have got to be kidding. And whilst we are on the Trump discussion. He pissed of whatever ally he had and they will all let him drown with all his debt. So, he is playing nice with the Middle East and the members of the Gulf States that have cash. I also stated that the AI court cases will increase and I was right “As of April 2026, AI-related court cases are rapidly increasing, focusing on two main areas: AI misuse in legal filings (hallucinated case law) and intellectual property disputes over AI training data.” And I have seen first hand that we have only seen the tip of the iceberg considering “intellectual property disputes over AI training data” and these disgruntled parties are international and those not having some agreement in place will get their payday and their golden checks all whilst they come out of the coffers of the United States, leaving the United States more destitute than ever before. 

So in this case Iran might be correct, the days that the United States is “in position to ’dictate’ policy to other nations” are over. They might do so, for a few weeks, but when the larger bills come calling, we will see a different America and at that point I fear for the well being of my Canadian brothers (sisters too), because whatever Canada has, the United States will need and they will blame on the world their own inability to keep their spending habits in order. As I see it, the only path for the Commonwealth is a path that partners with China and Europe to create one big block (not the cheesy kind) but this is what I expect to happen, because as I see it, the intercepted Iranian tankers are heading wherever the US Navy wants to take them and according to some this is called ‘Western Piracy’, I am unsure what to call it, but it does give more weight to the insolvency issues I am seeing. And whilst some see this as the beginning of a Ponzi scheme of handling things (I am on that boat too), how long do you think that this will continue before all allies that the United States once had will see this as unacceptable and the new allies will almost immediately shy away and whilst the Media has a shrinking reliability, it merely fuels that Middle Eastern media in gaining a more prominent traction with the west. 

So feel free to disagree with what I write, but also take time to investigated the news as it is and compare it to what you know. As such I ended the article in 2014 with “I reckon soon enough we will get more and more long winded talks, but in the end no one is saying anything because those who will be making the speeches are at the heart of what went wrong and no one wants to hold on to that guilt when those left without their house ask them the question ‘where are my savings?’.”

As such I wonder where are some of the saving left, because a Ponzi scheme approach will more easily use the funds of any bank and replace it with an IOU. 

So you all have a decent day, if possible a great day and I call on all Commonwealthians to consider the plight of the Canadians, because no matter how good they are doing, due to PM Mark Carney, they will soon have over 300,000,000 angry Americans looking for a way out and a better way than the hollow shell they are (allegedly) in at present.

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April 14, 2026 · 10:05

Secondary reasoning

That was the first thing that hit me when I was introduced to the BBC article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn08ep6d5ndo) named ‘US home buyers ‘frozen’ as sales slump over Iran war fears’ a few hours ago. You see, what it says here is not a lie, it is incomplete. We are given “The US housing market is struggling as the impact of higher mortgage rates, fuelled by the US-Israeli war in Iran, begins to bite. Figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed the number of homes sold in March hit their lowest level for nine months, falling by 3.6% from a month earlier.” You see, the population of the United States is starting to figure out that this president will throw them under any truck heading for them, hoping it will slow that truck down. So whilst we see “impact of higher mortgage rates”, which might be true, but there is a whole lot of other factors playing. We see labor statistics giving the media that 178,000 is good and much better then we thought. But in that meantime Oracle sacked 30,000 people and they are not the only one and whilst we partially accept that this is the fuel the AI pressures. Some will realise that AI doesn’t yet exist and that the fallout will be soon. And as Europe is abandoning Microsoft (for plenty of reasons) the setting of data centers when they are not getting filled with data is another setting in that cog. Then there is the Iranian clambake which is not about the clambake, it is about the price of oil, so whilst like the house as presented. Some will see that the heating bill will grow sand in the cogs and whilst the mortgage goes up by factions at a time, the heating bill will take gulps out of your budget and it will drive fuel prices up. So your house in a nice place, it is also miles form the place of work and that is the real driver. So whilst some are in the dark on how many people, drowned on the Titanic (1997, James Cameron) the world will agree that it was a boatload and the specifics are basically made redundant. 

So when we are given “following drops in January and February, rates have shot up since the US-Israeli war began. They are increasing on expectations the US central bank could continue to hold interest rates in order to keep inflation under control, dashing hopes of further cuts by the Federal Reserve.” There is no mention that President Trump bashed the hopes of home builders by pissing of Canadian lumber, driving those prices up even further, this gives additional money requirement to houses and which now requires a slightly steeper interest setting. So whilst you want to say that you are happy with the $200K home, the additional $780 on additional mortgage and the additional price of lumber (set to a rough $5125) is not in the budget and it drives the prices up. Now we get oil that was $69 per barrel in 2025, we now see that same barrel going for $98 dollar, almost 50% more expensive, so consider that some claim that by June that price is a plausible $150. So, who can afford to heat their houses at 50% higher energy bills, with the optional 50% raise in a few months. And it is all due to their kind and loving president (I believe his name is Donald Trump). 

So whilst the BBC article gives the people in the United States plenty to worry about, the US finance industry has a much tougher time ahead. Because at this rate close to (a speculated) 17% of the housing market will collapse and the people who are in dire need to get rid of their homes will not find any buyers. But I recon that the Finance industry will hold hands and become the new landlords to a massively tough market.

As such, houses are more expensive, fueling houses (electricity and heating) will make them unaffordable and the borrowing ability of the United States goes straight from ground level to basement level 5. So whilst we might give some validity to “Indicators point to “weakening housing demand following a recent jump in mortgage rates and a collapse in consumer confidence”, said Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics. Both are “knock-on effects” of the Iran conflict, he added.” The words given doesn’t make Thomas Ryan clever, perhaps the fact that he is avoiding that all this was due to the American Administration is and the several factors that are ‘ignored’ have nothing to do with Iran, it has everything to do with some narcissistic individual that he was the next Jesus in a nasty line of nobodies. And make no mistake, when the other factors come to play, there is no avoiding the setting of the US administration, because when (not if) the European stability, which requires and absence of Microsoft come knocking. The data centers that have no input will be pushed in to a bad mortgage bank which will then be pushed into receivership. So my next question becomes: 

‘Who wants to own a data centre? They are going cheap.’

And I reckon that the silence that follows will be deafening. Only a fool takes on a war at two fronts (Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821) and only the king of fools sets a tariff and bully demand on 15 fronts (Donald Trump, 1946 – who cares). It is a setting that will haunt the United States until at least 2076, but some say that the United States will not survive until then, giving the history of the United States with less then 300 years, a setting of greed and exploitation in plenty of books to reminiscence over.

But then, I could be wrong. Do you think I am wrong, or are the factors you see starting to make sense and when that happens where will you place the media in all this. A mere reporting entity or a bleeding effect of greed and digital dollars?

Have a great day.

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March 29, 2026 · 05:44

The Bull what?

I was confronted with an Oracle article this morning, it came with the complements of the Insider Monkey (at https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/oracles-orcl-backlog-drives-its-bull-thesis-according-to-analysts-1726682/). The article ‘Oracle’s (ORCL) Backlog Drives Its Bull Thesis According To Analysts’ which might be a conundrum, so lets take a look. We are given “The major factors in the firm’s bullish thesis on ORCL are its massive backlog and its ability to cater to increasing AI investments in the US. Oracle has a remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $553 billion, which offers good visibility into the company’s future earnings.” I would go with that a backlog gives stock and future of a company value, but that might be an oversimplification. And $553,000,000,000 is nothing to sneer at. It is seemingly more than the overall business that several nations have and in this case it is more then Norway gets on an annual level. So I would go with that, but what is a bullish thesis? 

Well, in short “A bull thesis is a structured argument supporting the belief that a specific stock, sector, or the overall market will rise in value, driven by positive catalysts like strong earnings, innovation, or economic expansion. It focuses on growth potential, such as AI-driven productivity, high revenue backlogs, or increased market share.” (Source: Simply Wall Street).

So I had it correct the first time over (a few days ago). There was nothing new under the hot sun, but the next bit ‘surprised’ me a bit. It was “The analyst also pointed out that a major risk in the bull thesis is the customer concentration. A large part of this backlog comes from OpenAI. OpenAI intends to invest a total of $600 billion in computing power by 2030. Previously, in October, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the company could spend up to $1.4 trillion on infrastructure by 2033. One month ago, BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski commented on how this particular risk is now reducing for Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL):” So in short, most of the backlog comes from OpenAI, if OpenAI fails (not a weird thought) Oracle stumbles as would be the case, so the backlog is due to mostly one customer and that is a rusk. How big a risk remains to be seen. The people wanting OpenAI to succeed are numerous and ‘THEY’ would be reducing the risk like the metal dealer reducing the risk of riveting and downplaying potential dangers. This went well before the Titanic saw the shores of the ocean (bottom of the sea), but what happens afterwards? Now, riveting is largely supported, there are whole fleets still out there based on riveting. But what happens when the next big thing comes (like welding), so that is where we are right now. But on the horizon we see Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek and something called Cohere. I believe Oracle is in a good space as whatever comes next will require a system that deal with data and I believe that the only competitor here is Snowflake. As such yes, there is a risk to (what some call) the Bull thesis, but the risk is seemingly small as nothing can match Oracle and Snowflake can only partially cover Oracle (as I see it) and I have some reservations on BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski as BNP Paribas and OpenAI have a multifaceted relationship involving financial analysis, infrastructure, and competition within the AI landscape and this article dos not bare this out. But in that setting we also fail to see the setting that ‘SoftBank Secures $40 Billion Loan to Fund $30 Billion OpenAI Investment’ (source: TradingView) this matters as there is a backlog and they still need loans/investment funds? And the second setting is given to us (at https://www.nssmag.com/en/lifestyle/44761/sora-openai-shutdown) where we see ‘Understanding OpenAI’s U-turn on Sora’ where we see “The development team of Sora, the artificial intelligence software by OpenAI that allowed users to generate realistic videos from a simple prompt, recently announced the shutdown of the app. It is a sudden and highly significant change, one that is expected to produce notable effects in the technology and entertainment sectors, with repercussions that could extend well beyond the U.S. market. The shutdown of Sora is not relevant only for the company led by Sam Altman, but also for other players active in the field of generative AI applied to video production. Google, for instance, now finds itself in an advantageous position in this area, with the concrete possibility of consolidating its leadership in the generation of realistic AI-based videos – thanks to its tool Veo.” So some will see this as a boost to Google (DeepMind) but this happens before these tracks became financially viable (read: paying off) and these elements will create some sort of minor shockwave. The problem is that 3-4 shockwaves can create a massive customer turnover (like towards a competitor) and even if it doesn’t ‘damage’ Oracle, it might hurt prospects in that near future. Consider that this backlog of $553 billion reduces it to a mere $125,000,000,000 Still a large number, but that is when it starts raining men on Wall Street (aka: watch out below).  All elements overlooked in Insider Monkey and the non-Chinese media is not too bitty in the DeepSeek settings. So we are mostly unaware how their next version of its engine is. All elements that will influence the view on Oracle. I still have faith that Oracle will pull through successfully, but these pesky investors are at present more jittery than a room full of roaches as you turn on the lights. It might not be the best setting for a long term ‘understanding’ and that is something Oracle has to deal with. 

Have a great day, I am now 120 minutes from breakfast, although if I was in Vancouver I could enjoy another lunch in the Nightingale like a Cache Creek Beef Tartare, yummy.

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March 16, 2026 · 23:25

Is it insight or data?

Two days ago I saw two things close together. The first one was a Bloomberg terminal with nearly everything in red, even player like Oracle and Google were in the red. Not sure what brought it on, oil price, a clown in Washington DC setting the buildings on fire or perhaps someone in California doing something similar. The reason is unknown to me. On that same day an article (at https://www.mirrorreview.com/news/oracle-earnings-reveal-contract-backlog/) by the Mirror Review gives me ‘Oracle Earnings Reveal $553B Contract Backlog Due To Massive Cloud Demand’, now I do not know this source, but the two don’t make sense. Oracle has a $553B backlog (which is nice as I am looking for a job), but this sets two parts in motion against one another. So if there is an outstanding pipeline worth half a trillion dollars. There should be no red mention for Oracle, but that might be my non-economic side taking considerations in its own hands. 

So when we see “Oracle generated $17.2 billion in revenue, representing a 22% increase from the same quarter last year. Profit also improved, with earnings per share reaching $1.27, up 24% year over year. Cloud services were the main growth engine. Oracle’s cloud revenue reached $8.9 billion, growing 44% compared with last year.” The setting of Bloomberg red makes no sense to me and I wonder if there is orchestration in play. Don’t sign off yet, there is additional evidence. MorningStar (at https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/oracle-earnings-solid-execution-secures-revenue-target-mitigates-investor-concerns) gives is ‘Oracle earnings: Solid execution secures revenue target and mitigates investor concerns’ another statement that makes no sense, in light to a workable half a trillion dollar pipeline. Here we see “We are content with Oracle’s pace to expand its data center footprint. Demand for AI training and inference continues to outgrow supply, which supports our accelerating growth outlook for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. OCI revenue should grow 77% in fiscal 2026 and 117% in fiscal 2027. Ninety percent of the 400-megawatt data center capacity Oracle delivered in the quarter was on or ahead of schedule. Considering the scale of OCI’s buildout, a strong record of on-time delivery is evidence of solid execution that should maintain customer trust and enable faster time to revenue.” As well as “We raise our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Oracle to $220, from $215 previously, based on higher-than-expected near-term demand for AI compute. Shares look undervalued following the stock’s 8% after-hours rally. Clarity around Oracle’s funding and market demand can mitigate investor concerns around OCI’s future growth. However, we reiterate our Very High Morningstar Uncertainty Rating for Oracle, as the demand and competitive landscape for AI cloud can change rapidly over the long term. Our base case assumes that AI infrastructure will continue to see high demand that allows Oracle to reach its $225 billion revenue goal by fiscal 2030. In this case, there is a clear path for Oracle stock to converge with our fair value estimate as a result of on-time capacity delivery each quarter.”

So, how does “our fair value estimate” make sense? What is it based on? There is also the setting of “we reiterate our Very High Morningstar Uncertainty Rating for Oracle” It sounds like orchestration by a Wall Street party. How can any firm that sets over half a trillion pipeline to this? Lets face the simple fact that this is out of reach for a player like Microsoft who ‘gives’ us “Microsoft reported a record annual revenue of $281.7 billion for fiscal year 2025” it might not be bad (me thinks) but it is merely half the revenue that Oracle has in its pipeline. And I reckon that this is merely the beginning. As places like the UAE has the Iranian stage, banks and several others need a clear line of communication via service centers, call centers and customer care and as I see it, Oracle is the best in these data vaults as I see it, the pipeline might grow in several directions because it is not just the UAE, I reckon that organisations in Europe and Japan will have similar settings soon enough.

And as we see other sources giving us “Remaining performance obligations, which is a useful metric when we want to gauge how revenue might be developing in the near future, grew by as much as 325% year-over-year. Looking forward to Q4, ORCL expects revenue to keep growing by as much as 18% to 20%, while for fiscal 2026 they expect total revenue to be $67 billion and in fiscal 2027 to be $90 billion. Client concentration in the backlog—meaning OpenAI—remains a concern, however.” I feel that there is orchestration, but it is a mere feeling. I lack the economic education to make sense of this. But one would agree that a $553B pipeline (read: backlog) implies that the need for Oracle is high and I reckon it will be growing even more soon enough, but that boat part is a presumptuous setting, not because there are others (like Snowflake), but the track record of Oracle speaks for itself and even if Snowflake has a great track record, these organisations go with what is safe and Oracle tends to be the safe route that large organisations ‘value’, but that might be merely my insight into this setting.

Have a great day.

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February 12, 2026 · 16:10

Bank on this

Early this morning the Khaleej Times alerted me to a story (any https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/finance/united-arab-bank-posts-45-surge-in-2025-profit-as-assets-and-income-climb). Now we all assume that banks make all the money, but that is not the whole story. You see under Sharia law banks have ‘limitations’. Or perhaps better stated “Islamic banking operates under Shariah law, primarily prohibiting interest (aka: riba), excessive uncertainty (aka: gharar), and gambling (aka: maisir). Key rules include mandatory asset-backing for transactions, sharing risks and profits between bank and customer, and investing only in ethical, halal businesses. Common structures include Murabaha (cost-plus financing), Ijarah (leasing), and Musharaka (joint venture).” Are settings that an islamic banks need to adhere to. So when you see these ‘limitations’ and then the Khaleej Times gives us ‘United Arab Bank posts 45% surge in 2025 profit as assets and income climb’ we might see another side, mainly the side of how well the UAE is doing at present. The subtext “A key highlight of the year was the Sharjah-based lender’s successful Dh1.03 billion rights issue, which increased the bank’s paid-up capital by around 50%” with the added “The bank recorded a net profit of Dh438 million for the year ended 31 December 2025, up from Dh301 million in 2024. Total income climbed 31 per cent to Dh797 million, fueled by what the bank described as “strong momentum” across its core businesses. Non-interest income surged by 56 per cent, while net interest income rose 24 per cent.” this is what I call a massive boost to the UAE economy, so whilst you are getting fed up (tired too) on how bad the United States is doing, you see here an example on how it could be done and people better consider the fallout, because at present any dollar (Euro’s and Pounds too) that aren’t currently being invested in Europe, America, Commonwealth, Europe and a few other places are likely being invested in the UAE. I don’t know how well Saudi Arabia is doing, but it is doing a lot better than Europe. So when we get to “Chairman Sheikh Mohammed bin Faisal bin Sultan Al Qassimi said 2025 marked a pivotal year for the bank as it celebrated its golden jubilee and unveiled a refreshed brand identity. “It proved to be a transformative period for UAB, reinforced by decisive strategic initiatives and robust financial performance,” he said. “Operationally, the Bank delivered solid profitability, supported by disciplined execution, prudent risk management, and enhanced operating leverage.”” You know that they are doing it right and a strong willed and able minded board of directors was at the head of that setting. I reckon that the western world will eagerly look at the reports of SAMA (Saudi Central Bank) and the CBUAE (Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates). Because as I see it, the 2025 results are merely the beginning and if my predictions hold firm, the Western world (and its banks) will come under the spell of ‘Dry Well psychoses’ soon enough and when the opportunities of Wall Street dry up because of the economy in the United States, these two countries will get a lot of opportunities ‘handed’ to them and whilst we might worry about the Influence they will gain, these ‘new’ banks will have to adhere to Sharia law and the laws of the land, which prohibits them from making certain steps. So while we might stop at “UAB also reported healthy asset quality, with a net reversal of impairment charges amounting to Dh51 million, translating to a cost of risk of –41 basis points. The bank attributed this to strong recoveries and its “robust risk framework.” Its cost-to-income ratio improved to 46 per cent, down from 52 per cent the previous year, while return on shareholders’ equity stood at 16 per cent.” Banks on a global setting haven’t seen this since the post-WWII Golden Age, which went from 1950–1973, as such the last really successful ‘boom’ period was 53 years ago, so you better bet on the non-Islamic banks taking notice at present. Whilst President Trump will be wondering where the money is going to and he might wonder why no one is betting on his ‘beautiful’ bills, I get the notion that banks might want to vacate towards the settings of SAMA and the CBUAE at their earliest convenience, especially as this comes with an almost certain guarantee for return on their investors. As such I noticed the settings we are given and I wonder how well ADNOC is doing in all this, because their profits go somewhere, don’t they and as I see it, the CBUAE is a safe bet to consider. 

Have a great day today, Perhaps tomorrow I get to write on some gaming IP. 

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January 13, 2026 · 13:36

The call from outside

That is at times the setting we anticipate, but is that always the case? The Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/12/jerome-powell-investigation-explained) gives us ‘Why is Trump’s justice department investigating Fed chair Jerome Powell?’ Personally when you make blunders the way President Trump is making them, you need one man in your corner and I reckon it is supposed to be Jerome Powell, the Fed chair is supposed to be impartial, as such he would be a tremendous ally, even as the setting stands, so what gives? Well, I reckon that some see that Stage four of the American collapse has begun. I think the same thing for other reasons but their voice fills the few gaps I had, so there it is. Ad the Guardian gives us “Powell publicly denounced the inquiry as punishment for not bowing to the president’s wishes on interest rates” too, right under the headline. As such we are also given that “Trump has long wanted the Fed to lower interest rates, claiming that cutting rates would save “$1tn a year” and spur economic activity.” But at present (as It stands) we are given “Economists have also sounded the alarm, warning that Trump’s attempts to influence the Fed could risk plunging the US into a period of 1970s-style inflation, and trigger a global backlash in financial markets.” And even as they have Jerome Powell, is not alone here. We are given “Powell alone does not set interest rates. He is part of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the 12-member board that votes eight times a year on any changes to interest rates. Though Powell is just one vote out of 12, he has enormous sway as the most influential voice on the state of the US economy.” And this comes with “Fed economists often refer to the central bank’s “dual mandate”: mitigating price increases, while keeping unemployment low. Cutting rates too quickly risks higher inflation in the long term, but rates that are too high can stagnate the labor market.” To translate this, we have a house, there are three element that can be set. The house can be built Fast<>Slow, The quality of the house can be High<> Low and the Price can be High<>Low. Now the game tells us that we can set two dials, the third is forced upon us. So we can have a high quality low priced house, but the speed will then be slow. You get the idea, the third dial never ever goes your way and that is what the Federal Exchange is working with and with that setting there are problems and the interest rates are the third dial. President Trump can blow all he wants like the big bad wolf, but the Exchange rates building is build out of bricks and mortar, not straw and not wood. So whilst he wants for pressure all around him, he is now facing the ‘beginning’ of what some call ‘Hyperinflation’, I am not one of them, because I lack the economic degrees to do this comfortably. But the signs have been out there. As Saudi Arabia and Chiba are selling the US Treasury bonds, the world is watching how America is drowning its own country. 

All this is happening whilst ABC gives us (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-12/criminal-investigation-opens-into-us-federal-reserve-chair/106220038) ‘US federal prosecutors open criminal inquiry into US Federal Reserve chair’ and heart we are given “US federal prosecutors have opened a criminal inquiry into the US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, he said on Sunday, local time. Mr Powell says he was threatened with criminal charges because he had set interest rates based on economic analysis rather than politics”, as well as “The legal threat amounts to a dramatic escalation in a fight between Mr Powell and US President Donald Trump, with analysts saying it could affect longer-term Australian interest rates.” As I personally see it, President Trump better come with massively verifiable evidence. There is every chance that Jerome Powell will stat some liability case with a pay out in the billions. I reckon that this will stump the economy to a much larger degree, because whomever fills that chair (I have no idea who does) better not play the political game until this president is gone, as such President Trump for the most lost all the marbles in this game and he will not get any other marbles. As such several states will seek safety FROM President Trump instead of with President Trump and the White House. I reckon that if Texas and California seek such a solution the age of the White House getting any input will be swayed towards other settings before long,. But this last part is pure speculation. But the sentiment rings true. And whilst China is dumping whatever US Bonds they might still have, it will hit America much harder that they bargained for. So whilst the ABC gives us ““On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June,” Mr Powell said in a statement. The testimony concerned, in part, a multi-year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings. “But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration’s threats and ongoing pressure,” he said. “This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. “I have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy. No-one — certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve — is above the law.”” But that opens up another an of worms, all the evidence concerning the Tariffs are now brought into the light, as such all the claims the American Administration made on the profits ‘gained’ can now be brought into the light and it will merely take one democratic voice to add this to any testimony that is given and the game is up for this Administration. As such I reckon that this is a really silly move. And when you consider the idea that this is not how this plays. Consider that one of the questions that are entertained “Why are the interest rates increasing?” And it only requires one of the following answers in any related subpoena: “The tariffs weren’t giving us the revenue we were told”, “Tourism had much less revenue in 2025 due to connected issues shutting down” or even “Canada has been cancelling orders for many billions and we have to get the articles somewhere else and more expensive” any of these three answers are needed and all three are expected to come into that setting and they would all have raised interest rates. So how about that? President Trump seemingly shot himself in the foot yet again. A folly from start to finish.

And all this is a given, because the Guardian gives us (at the end) “A statement signed by every living former Fed chair condemned the investigation, and warned that similar political attacks on independent central banks have led to unstable economies and higher costs of living.” Because that is what people want, a more expensive cost of life. As such the entire issues is stupid, ego driven and self deflating. All that because the ego of one person seemingly goes against economic rationality. So good luck with that. 

So are we watching into what some call stage 4 of the American economy? It seems to fit, but I cannot tell because I lack the economic education on this, but no one is seemingly asking the economy boffins of the media either. Have a great day today.

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December 30, 2025 · 14:16

The age of uncertainty 

I thought that times were changing, see I invoked some were invoked on me, or something of that nature. Two days ago I started a new script, I call it “Just A Game” which gives me the letters J.A.G. (no relation) but the setting was created to scare the jibbers out of the NSA, GCHQ and related organisations. Set to that I created a few kinks to get the setting of drama going and it is a film script, not some autography to scare three to four people. They get enough real scares for that, as such I wouldn’t be able to hold a candle to the real nightmares.

Then I got introduced to (what I am fathoming to be grifters in media) as I got exposed to ‘Oracle stock slips after insider sale filing as openai-linked spending stays in focus’ where we see “Oracle shares fell 0.4% to $197.27 in early trading on Monday after a company officer disclosed a planned share sale, with investors still wary about the cost of the software maker’s push to expand AI-related cloud capacity.” It is important to say that no lies were told, but as I see it, when we see “That scrutiny has been sharpest around Oracle’s ties to privately held OpenAI, where investors lack the same visibility into funding and cash burn that they get with public companies, analysts and traders said. (Source: Benzinga) A Form 144 filing accepted on Monday morning showed Oracle officer Mark Hura proposed selling up to 15,000 shares, with an aggregate market value of about $2.95 million, through Fidelity Brokerage Services. Form 144 is the SEC notice used when company “affiliates” — insiders and certain large holders — plan to sell shares under Rule 144, which sets conditions for selling restricted or control stock into the public market.” It feels like someone is trying to undermine the power of Oracle. Then we get ‘Oracle Shares Plunge Amid Mounting Concerns Over AI Strategy’ (source: Ad Hoc News, Germany) where we are given “Oracle Corporation is facing one of its most severe market downturns in decades. Since reaching a peak in September, the technology giant’s stock has plummeted by more than 40%, putting it on track for its worst quarterly performance since 2001. This dramatic sell-off is fueled by investor apprehension over soaring capital expenditures and a wave of insider selling, raising fundamental questions about the sustainability of management’s aggressive artificial intelligence investment plan. A primary catalyst behind the market’s negative reaction is the explosive growth in Oracle’s capital investments. The company’s capital expenditures tripled year-over-year in its second fiscal quarter, reaching $12 billion. In response to this surge, management significantly raised its annual forecast for such spending to a staggering $50 billion.” There is no lie, but in September, stock was $328 and it is lower now, but that is the setting of a market in motion, over the last day it was switching between $194 and $195, as such there is no real dip in intent, and the $328 was true, but the day before it was $241, but the article doesn’t spell that out, does it? And two days after the spike it had ‘dwindled’ to $292, and after the quarter that followed the stock would reset itself to $198, as such it seems like ‘doom speak’ and I have a problem with that, Oracle has proven itself time and time again and when true (say: real) AI arrives, it will only function under the data armour that Oracle provides, most others are wannabe’s trying to do what Oracle and Snowflake successfully do. As such we are in a stage of uncertainty, the media is used to fuel digital dollars, fueling influencers and wannabe prophets of doom times. Even as I recognise them, they gave me an idea of an old setting. You see we have been through this before in the age of the bards. They gave us the doom speak, the white knight and the victory, but that setting is now applied to economic fortune telling, so the more things change, the more they stay the same.

And in all that ruckus, I am trying to keep my brain afloat (on ice water) and unburdened by noise of economic influencers. I try to avoid most economic news, but when the attack on Oracle started, I just had to step in. There were more articles, but these two set the marker quite nicely. And it is important, because the media no longer does what it was designed to do, it now prevents itself from drowning whilst chasing digital dollars. Lets hope that the age of uncertainty fades quickly, America has its own set of losers trying to bank in on that and with a non-functioning media, we need all the help we can get. Have a great day today.

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