Tag Archives: Canada

When war and politics mixes

That is the setting that I see initially, but there is a lot more. So lets go back to the message CNN hands us roughly 95.432 minutes ago. CNN (at https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/22/politics/trump-iran-national-security-meeting) gives us ‘Trump meets with national security officials as he weighs next steps on Iran’ where we are told “President Donald Trump met Friday with top US national security officials as he weighs a path forward on the war with Iran, a person familiar with the meeting said. The White House session — which Trump holds routinely — came as diplomacy grinds ahead in an attempt to secure a deal to end the war. It ended without a decision on what will happen next, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday there “might be some news a little later today.” “Even as I speak to you now, there’s some work being done,” Rubio said, talking to reporters on a trip to India. “There is a chance that, whether it’s later today, tomorrow, in a couple days, we may have something to say.”” So, am I getting that “Between now and whenever he will tell us that Coffee is better with cream?” Because that is something to say. As I see it, the American war room is filled with committed non-intelligent people. And when we see “According to Iranian state media accounts, Ghalibaf said Iran “will not back down from the rights of our nation and country – especially when dealing with a party that has never shown sincerity and in which no trust exists.”” And it is here that for the first time (ever) people are not seeing Iran as the big bad. How do you think anyone sees the United States as a friendly nation when people start believing Iranian media? But that is not all (at https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-says-hes-called-off-iran-strike-planned-for-tuesday-at-request-of-gulf-allies) we are given ‘Trump says he’s called off Iran strike planned for Tuesday at request of Gulf allies’ and we are seemingly asking the question “Which Gulf allies?”, so this article was given to us on May 18th, 2026 4:27 PM EDT. It is important to show the time given the timeline. And the article also gives us “Trump has been threatening for weeks that the ceasefire struck in mid-April could end if Iran did not strike a deal, with shifting parameters for striking such an agreement. Over the weekend he warned, “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them.” Trump said he was calling off the planned strike at the request of allies in the Middle East, including the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.” So we see the names, but personally I reckon that we need to see that same message in places like Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya and Arab News. We have seen to much Tom Foolery by the digital dollar driven media and most of us seek verification. Yet Al Jazeera gives us ‘Iran war updates: Trump warns of attacks in ‘two or three days’ if no deal’ on May 19th 2026, so the three days have passed. Whilst only 20 minutes ago (aka 1200 seconds) CBS gives us ‘Trump says U.S. is “getting a lot closer” to agreement with Iran’ (at https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-iran-war-negotiations-draft-agreement-strait-of-hormuz/) With the quotes “Sources familiar with the negotiations told CBS News that the latest proposal includes a process to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the unfreezing of some Iranian assets held in foreign banks, and a continuation of negotiations. Mr. Trump declined to provide specifics about the agreement, but said that “every day it gets better and better. I can’t tell you before I tell them, right?” Mr. Trump told CBS News in a phone interview. Mr. Trump did say that he believes the final agreement will prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, adding that he “wouldn’t even be talking about it” otherwise. Mr. Trump added that the agreement would also result in Iran’s enriched uranium being “satisfactorily handled.”” But the CBS article gives me pause, you see words are everything and they give us the mention of ‘Mr. Trump’, but he is president. He is not my president, I don’t like him much, but he was elected and CBS should know this. So why the wording? As I see it, whatever delay we see would be working in favour of Iran, the more the words of President Trump are doubted, the more power Iran gains from all this, the weaker the United States looks to the world. I am getting the feeling (or perhaps illusion/delusion) that the Sun Tzu setting from the Art of War could use another chapter. In Chapter 13 we are given the 5 states of spies. Local Spies, Inward Spies, Converted Spies, Dead Spies, Living Spies. So what would be the case if we imply this to politicians. We always thought they were the ‘asset’ of that nation, but what happens when that is no longer the case? Because a politician serves up to three masters, Their nation, themselves, big corporations or their party. But what happens when their nation is replaced in the first instance towards one of these goals. What happens when they stop seeing their nation and their voters towards whatever happens to take the primary place in goals? What happens then? And as I see it, the media is too involved in servicing their need for the digital dollar to care on what seems to be happening.

So agree or disagree, it is fine with me. But when you look at it and consider that fuel now is at an average of $4.529, which is a little more than the $3.10 to was on 2025. So, what else are you paying through the nose for now and aren’t politicians meant to keep these costs of living down? The so called war on Iran didn’t really set that out did it? And still the nuclear setting has been “Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon, but it has a long history of engaging in secret nuclear weapons research in violation of its international commitments. Western analysts say the country has the knowledge and infrastructure to produce a nuclear weapon in fairly short order should its leaders decide to do so.” As such the world was driven into some perspective war because ‘produce a nuclear weapon in fairly short order should its leaders decide to do so’ I am not saying that this reasoning is short, but the deception around all this has become debilitating. No one wants to see Iran with nuclear weapons, but we should all be told the exact truth (as I see it) and there is way too much deception in all of this. Deception in war is OK, it is the part of Chapter 13 that makes sense, because disinformation towards enemies is a employable weapon, but this disinformation has taken in a life of its own, it is now almost everywhere and it is labelled truth next to the actual truth and a lot of people (including myself) are finding it harder and harder to distinguish one from the other and the BBC gives us less than a day ago “But what is driving the US pressure on Cuba and how is it responding?” Because as I see it, that is the next stage. Canada, Greenland, Venezuela, Iran and Cuba? Did anyone really want to give President Trump a Nobel peace price? As I see it, War and Politics don’t mix, politics needs to present a clear message, from that war optionally derives, but that is a personal view I have and it might be wrong.

Have a great day. Oh wait, I am watching Harry Potter getting killed again. Repetition doesn’t make the story better or more, it makes the story the same story, no matter how it is reenforced. So enjoy the day and consider how the story is being told to you and what it is actually saying, because that too shapes the narrative that is in your mind, in all our minds actually. So have a good one, I am still hours away from my morning coffee, so I might look at letter 26 multiple times for a few hours (the answer is ZZZZZZZZZ).

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Two simple points

I was made aware of two events, one less than 2 hours ago. Both by the CBC, the first one (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/u-s-duties-tariffs-canadian-mushrooms-9.7200052) gives us ‘U.S. to slap tariffs on Canadian mushrooms as growers warn of broader risks for agriculture’ with the byline “U.S. pointing to agricultural tax exemptions as justification for countervailing duties” there is a seemingly wrong stance on this. We are also given “A U.S. Commerce Department fact sheet released this week and shared with CBC by the Canadian Mushroom Growers’ Association says that following an investigation, the U.S. government will be hitting Canadian fresh mushrooms with tariffs of between 1.6 and five per cent. Countervailing duties are slapped on imports judged to be unfairly subsidized. Similar U.S. investigations have resulted in duties on Canadian softwood lumber for decades.” So whilst we see that this is unfair, the article does bring out a few parts that might show that American mushroom growers can see that they are unfairly handled. At this point there is a setting that the US government should intervene. It is also clear that this is not due to the growers, but by clever supermarket entrepreneurs who see tax exemptions to get cheaper goods and I get that they do this, but this trap, which was always a hidden trap, might be blowing up in the faces of all. We then get “CBC news asked Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald’s office for a statement regarding the mushroom duties. A spokesperson pointed CBC News to Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc’s office for comment. LeBlanc’s office deferred to Global Affairs Canada, which has yet to offer a statement. The U.S. also launched a separate investigation which could result in further anti-dumping tariffs on mushrooms later this year.” In this case I would hand the reader: “is this anti-dumping or clever supermarket purchase policies?” There are different angles at looking at the dice that some are playing with. And this almost directly relates to the second article (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/sobeys-loblaw-maple-washing-9.7196767) where we see ‘Sobeys, Loblaw under fire for maple washing, as Sobeys ditches maple leaf symbol in stores’ which is accompanied by “Federal regulator has identified 127 cases of maple washing by retailers since the start of 2025”, the conspiracy theorists will blame American intervention, but I am seeing a place where those purchasing for supermarkets that they are on a sliding scale of disaster and they are choosing to level that sliding scale by a lot. So when we see “More than a year after the Buy Canadian movement took root, grocery giants Loblaw and Sobeys are facing increased scrutiny over “maple washing” the practice of promoting imported goods as homegrown.” And it is where we see “The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) slapped two Loblaw-owned stores in January with $10,000 fines each for maple washing, and one month later, two other Loblaw-owned stores got formal warnings for the same violation, CBC News has learned. Sobeys is also on the CFIA’s radar. The federal food regulator told CBC it has received multiple complaints about the grocer and maple washing and has wrapped up an investigation into advertising practices overseen by Sobeys head office.” I am thinking that it is time for a change. It is time for the Commonwealth when not producing their own goods, to buy Canadian /Commonwealth. 

A combines sticker with the flags of Canada, UK, Australia, new Zealand, India, Jamaica (full be honest, I am including Jamaica to complete a set of six). When this purchasing setting is invoked there will be several changes. When we prefer our (near) local produce over American produce, there will be a change in several ways and as I see it, the supermarkets can either adapt or go under. Canada did not start this war, but with the help of the Commonwealth it can finish it. And for those having stock in Sobeys and Loblaw can either sell whatever stock they have or lose a massive amount of money. When the bulk of the Canadians walk away from these two brands, these brands will feel the hurt of no sales really quickly. Some will debate that America started all this and as such they should pay and I am not deaf to that premise, but these two providers set the change in motion and that should not be rewarded either. 

As such we have options and I reckon that if the UK, Australia and New Zealand follow Canada in taking American alcohol off the shelves the impact will be seen to a much larger extent. And it benefits the Commonwealth too, Gin from UK, Whiskey from UK and Canada, Rum from Australia, and there are a few combinations that will give the Commonwealth the investment in their own products. I reckon that it will take less than a year for over a 100 brands to fall into receivership. Good idea from this US administration to cry ‘America First’ so when that implode on their plates we can move on towards cars and a few other items. There is great satisfaction in this, but there is another setting. The stage where we see that there is justice in anti-dumping tariffs and the United States has a valid point in protecting its home made produce and these two articles do not bear this out. But that might be my view on the matter. What does matter is that these two articles show that Canada is sailing a narrow margin boat across heavy waves and there will be enough casualties on both sides of the border to consider that there needs to be another way. Because that is seemingly overlooked and perhaps these two points are not as simple as they seem because there are several issues in play.

Have a great day.

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A yellow cap

That is the setting and whether you call it a yellow cap or a golden dome is up to you, but beware, a simple top of mind gives this a weird setting. CBC gives us (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/golden-dome-trump-cbo-cost-estimate-9.7196982) ‘Budget office estimates Trump’s proposed Golden Dome will have trillion-dollar price tag over 20-year period’ and I thought that this was another bleak idea (right along the Trump Gold Card, which apparently is a huge failure with one sell, which was allegedly given as a present) and that was it for me, but then the CBC gives me the one line that opens the debate. 

It was “Somewhat inspired by Israeli defences”, so you think that changing the name from Iron to Golden does the trick? Consider the implications. It works for Israel as it is roughly the size of New Jersey. Consider Texas, that state with Netflix issues (see yesterdays blog) is 10 times the size of New Jersey. It could be attacked from the south by Mexico border, the SouthEast amphibious/Cuba, West/North via Cruise missiles and then we get that Israel is mostly like minded, in the United States the threat of Asymmetric/Internal Threats is decently real. And this is merely one state. As I see it, Texas, Florida, California, Washington State, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia sets a new chapter all together. My (massively inaccurate) setting throws the amount between $3 trillion and $5 trillion and that is when the massive write offs happen, an economy that cannot afford anywhere near that amount. As such that $1 trillion over 20 years will need critical investigations. The setting is simple. Consider that the Israel can fit into the United States 465 times (approximately) and now consider that the Iron Dome is set to United States parameters and not made out of gold (pewter is more like it), that equation doesn’t even get close to do its work when we see the impact on what the Iron Dome would need to do in the United States. I think I am merciful when I think it s a mere 3-5 trillion that bill might be significantly larger. So when we see “The U.S. Golden Dome is envisioned to include ground and space-based capabilities able to detect, intercept and stop missiles at all major stages of a potential attack. Congress has already approved roughly $24 billion US for the missile defence initiative through Republicans’ massive tax and spending measure signed into law last summer.” As such the ability to detect might require an upgrade (an idea that the movie a house of dynamite (2025) gave me). And that is merely attacks from missiles. The setting that the United States faces through asymmetric sets these detection methods on lose wheels. That all requires manpower, construction and a few more kinks can show up. The cyber settings will become almost humongous and for the most they cannot predict what is next, some can’t see what is a threat now, but that is a different story. As I see it, Israel has had decades to create the iron dome settings and they did it will, but to apply this to a nation the size of the United States is rather ludicrous, on a side note, Canada would equally be unable to deploy a system like that, the cost alone would cripple the Canadian economy, only so that “The Boss” can sleep safely at night? Good luck with that idea. 

As such I have no idea what gave the Pentagon (or related people) the idea that this is a workable idea? I get that the united States might want to upgrade its defenses, but to throw it at a gimmick that has no foundation on reality is as I personally see it beyond silly. 

So whilst the article ends with “Sen. Jeff Merkley, a Democrat from Oregon, who requested the estimate from the CBO, said in response to the report that the missile defence project is “nothing more than a massive giveaway to defence contractors paid for entirely by working Americans.” Last May, the president said the Golden Dome would cost $175 billion US. The CBO last year estimated that just the space-based components of the Golden Dome could cost as much as $542 billion US over the next 20 years.” I seem to be on the side of Senator Jeff Merkley because it is as I see it more than a massive giveaway to defence contractors. It requires a lot more and it would requires military technicians and a massive monitoring issue on all these missiles and observation posts, Then you get exclude zones for these places and even as some will be the same, it might require a lot more and that is where the shoes become too uncomfortable to wear. As I see it, it requires a total overhaul of a system that was decent to begin with, which will make it prone to overhaul issues and the cyber nightmare that follows to overhaul it all is merely the beginning. There are a few more issues where I have no knowledge, as such I will not know all the issues but when I look at this from the ground at a distance, there is no way that $1 trillion will cover that and as such someone needs to take a critical look at this and I wonder what pentagon involvement was handed to the CBO in this. Just a thought to entertain. Well that is that from me, I will continue tonight on a better fairy tale, one that will grant Abu Dhabi TV the option to give muslim channels a desire to connect to Abu Dhabi TV channels. I can make fairy tales too, I merely hand them to the audiences to gasp at, no fear needed. Merely good feelings. Have a great day.

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Under Attack

That is at times the setting, especially when you look at the gulf states at present, but that is not what is the setting, the Commonwealth, specifically Canada is under attack. It is under attack from the United States and Russia. We might want to be in disbelief, but the CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/russia-and-u-s-amplifying-alberta-separatist-narratives-to-stoke-division-distrust-report-9.7189604) and we are given ‘Russia and U.S. amplifying Alberta separatist narratives to stoke division, distrust: report’ where we see “Moscow’s influence scheme is covert, while Trump-aligned meddling is overt and public”, we here in the Commonwealth need to take notice of the plight that stalks and covertly attacks Canada. We are also given “Rather, researchers discovered the now defunct website and social media accounts likely came from a Russian covert influence network known as Storm-1516, known for making fictional websites that target audiences in various countries. And here, it targeted Canada and Alberta. Both Russian and pro-Trump U.S. actors are amplifying and spreading misinformation about Alberta separatism in the hope of fraying Canadian unity and sowing distrust in key institutions and authorities, warns a new report released Wednesday.” This report, written by Marcus Kolga, Jennie Phillips, Brian McQuinn, Bartel Van de Walle gives us the goods on this. Marcus Kolga is a journalist, human rights advocate, and leading expert of foreign disinformation and influence operations. We can go over the list, it makes sense to attach the PDF at the end of the story, so that you can read it for yourself. And as I see it, whatever President Trump cannot have, he disables and we see this with “US involvement in Alberta separatism is not covert — it is overt, escalating, and converging at multiple levels simultaneously. By overt, we are referring to official engagement, where senior US government figures have met directly with Alberta separatist leaders and made public statements validating their cause, while the US is led by a president who has repeatedly expressed interest in annexing Canada. By escalating, we refer to influencer amplification, where prominent MAGA-aligned media figures with combined audiences in the tens of millions have actively promoted Alberta separatism and normalized annexation narratives. By convergence, we mean that the line between US influencer activity and Russian-funded operations has, in at least one documented case, dissolved entirely. Three converging lines of evidence establish this case.” And I for one, believe that we need to up the disruption into the United States by taking away whatever commerce it had until recently. We (the Commonwealth nations) need to unite and stand together against these attacks on Canada. We could all stop buying alcohol from the United States, we could all put change out vacation destination to Europe, Middle East and Asia. As I see it, the loss of commerce and goods would push the United States right over the edge. It is not something I would like to do, but attacking our brothers in Canada (sisters too) makes it almost mandatory to stand by Canada and use these methods. As I see it in April 2026, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has taken a confrontational stance against Canada’s trade strategy, calling it poor and attacking Canadian officials like Mark Carney. These remarks, described as insulting, have increased tension regarding USMCA, tariffs, and potential impacts on tourism and trade relations. So how much more ludicrous will his position become when we all (United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand) side with Canada and we all reject United States alcohol? From there we can reject all good from the United States? How long until their settings implode upon itself? You see, the MAGA setting was flawed from the very start, because a world founded on commerce cannot rely on export, without import it stops right quick. And now as we see that the United States is messing with Canada, we need to do something and until the senate hangs its 41st United States Secretary of Commerce out to dry, we need to stand firm, because Canada did not start this, whatever we see with his attacks on PM Mark Carney and all the rhetoric he wants, but the Commonwealth is over 2.5 billion people and even as the four nations are the important side, we could all refuse goods from the United States, you see it is our freedom to refuse whatever we want. It seems like U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has forgotten about that and the other nations that ‘revered’ American goods going back to the 80’s are now singing a different tune and a lot of them are a lot less positive about this administration and we have always been positive of the Commonwealth, as such people like U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are on a sliding slope that leads straight to an abyss. And now we see the Canada is under attack and anyone that sides with those attacking Canada can emigrate to the United States and make a new life, sounds fair doesn’t it?

I get that Russia wants to attack Canada (even as I don’t like it), the Commonwealth was a natural enemy of Russia going all the way back to 1850, so we have been having issues longer than I remember. But for the United States to attack Canada by giving us “Steve Bannon, former Trump advisor and prominent supporter of Brexit, has also inserted himself into the Alberta separatist issue, telling his War Room audience that Albertans “are getting out of the Canadian union” and arguing the United States should recognize Alberta as an independent country and place it “on the pathway” to becoming the 51st state” I have had my views on the debatable reasons of the 51st state. I still believe that the United States is so broke (read: insolvent) that the United States does whatever it can to get revenue through any means to keep the lights on (my paraphrasing that setting) First Canada, then Greenland, then Venezuela and now Iran. I see the people stating that this is an Epstein setting, but I believe that it is merely the icing on the cake and as the United States has less and less, I fear for our Canadian brothers and sisters. As such this PDF is also an essential reminder that behind the 41 million Canadians are over 100 million Commonwealthians ready to support them (I know the Commonwealth is over 2.5 billion), but as I see it, direct action is possible from Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom and optionally India too. So what happens when Howard Lutnick loses that population for commerce as well? Do you think he will cry like a little girl stating that Canadians are mean? We see “Democrats accused Lutnick of lying and evading their questions.” (Source: GlobalNews) we don’t need to lie or evade, we can just take our business elsewhere. We can order booze from Mexico (Tequila), Bermuda and Australia (Rum) and Gin from the United Kingdom, we have options and the United States better realise that we can do this to more than booze, cars from Japan and Europe, oil from Canada, Pharmaceuticals from India. That amounts to over a trillion in commerce lost. As I see it, the United States needs to reassess its actions and stop interfering in Canadian politics. Because as I see it, the United States pissed off Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom and they are (my personal view is) extremely willing to make the United States Administration sing a different tune. But that might merely be me. So all hail PM Mark Carney (whether you are Canadian or not) and enjoy today as much as you can.

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The bad news

That is what was going through my mind the day before yesterday and yesterday I saw something by Al Jazeera who illustrates it to you in a more profound way. They ‘quoted’ “Iran says US no longer in position to ’dictate’ policy to other nations

I don’t give in to the setting to Iran on anything because they are regarded as utterly evil by me, but as I see it, this one they got right. You see, the United States is as far as I see it the United States is insolvent. All other parties are so ready to debate the fine ‘tactics’ of what is insolvent. But the setting is now that the United States is a liability of 47.1 trillion dollars (according to some), their debt has now surpassed to 38 trillion and if the first set of numbers is correct, the interest is will in 2026 surpass $1,500,000,000,000 and that is a whole range of zero’s. To understand how I got to be this clever (the Dutch singer Herman Brood disagrees because he told me that I would never be clever). I wrote the story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2014/08/26/about-america-chapter-11/) ‘About America, chapter 11’, I wrote it on August 26th 2014. You think that this was too early, but at that point the debt had surpassed 18 trillion then and there was no exit strategy, there still isn’t one, but the debt has more than doubled and the IRS allegedly collected approximately $5.23 trillion, that implies that a third is spend on interest and in that setting President Trump wants to spend a trillion more in defense spending? You have got to be kidding. And whilst we are on the Trump discussion. He pissed of whatever ally he had and they will all let him drown with all his debt. So, he is playing nice with the Middle East and the members of the Gulf States that have cash. I also stated that the AI court cases will increase and I was right “As of April 2026, AI-related court cases are rapidly increasing, focusing on two main areas: AI misuse in legal filings (hallucinated case law) and intellectual property disputes over AI training data.” And I have seen first hand that we have only seen the tip of the iceberg considering “intellectual property disputes over AI training data” and these disgruntled parties are international and those not having some agreement in place will get their payday and their golden checks all whilst they come out of the coffers of the United States, leaving the United States more destitute than ever before. 

So in this case Iran might be correct, the days that the United States is “in position to ’dictate’ policy to other nations” are over. They might do so, for a few weeks, but when the larger bills come calling, we will see a different America and at that point I fear for the well being of my Canadian brothers (sisters too), because whatever Canada has, the United States will need and they will blame on the world their own inability to keep their spending habits in order. As I see it, the only path for the Commonwealth is a path that partners with China and Europe to create one big block (not the cheesy kind) but this is what I expect to happen, because as I see it, the intercepted Iranian tankers are heading wherever the US Navy wants to take them and according to some this is called ‘Western Piracy’, I am unsure what to call it, but it does give more weight to the insolvency issues I am seeing. And whilst some see this as the beginning of a Ponzi scheme of handling things (I am on that boat too), how long do you think that this will continue before all allies that the United States once had will see this as unacceptable and the new allies will almost immediately shy away and whilst the Media has a shrinking reliability, it merely fuels that Middle Eastern media in gaining a more prominent traction with the west. 

So feel free to disagree with what I write, but also take time to investigated the news as it is and compare it to what you know. As such I ended the article in 2014 with “I reckon soon enough we will get more and more long winded talks, but in the end no one is saying anything because those who will be making the speeches are at the heart of what went wrong and no one wants to hold on to that guilt when those left without their house ask them the question ‘where are my savings?’.

As such I wonder where are some of the saving left, because a Ponzi scheme approach will more easily use the funds of any bank and replace it with an IOU. 

So you all have a decent day, if possible a great day and I call on all Commonwealthians to consider the plight of the Canadians, because no matter how good they are doing, due to PM Mark Carney, they will soon have over 300,000,000 angry Americans looking for a way out and a better way than the hollow shell they are (allegedly) in at present.

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Bleeding on the spot

That is at times the setting, we tend to ignore it, we laugh, we giggle, and sometimes we cry. If it is your own body, you will likely panic. So as I saw Tom’s Hardware (at https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/cerebras-files-for-ipo-company-remains-unprofitable-despite-20x-revenue-growth) give us ‘Cerebras files for IPO — company remains unprofitable despite 20x revenue growth’ I tend to frown. There are settings with little profit (like the Big Mac for $1.95) which at 20 times still becomes a decent amount (all $6 of them), we get that other factors that remove profit margins, but when the setting becomes “Bleeding money at a rapid rate” it becomes a worry. You see, the business plan makes sense or is a hail Mary (not unlike the Macintosh Performa) this is an intentional setting I am giving, because that Hail Mary became the PowerMac and then the G4 and G5. These were the systems that put Apple on several maps and from there the big wins became visible. A Hail Mary that worked. But here we are given “Cerebras, the supplier of wafer-scale AI processors, has filed for an IPO for the second time after it cancelled such plans due to its ties with G42, an Abu Dhabi-based AI company backed by sovereign wealth fund Mubadala, last year. Financial results disclosed as part of the filing reveal that Cerebras appears to be one of the fastest-growing AI hardware companies right now. However, 86% of its revenue comes from two customers, and the company is bleeding money.” From this limited information I would gather that the business plan is highly likely flawed. And we are given that the 86% comes from just two customers (G42 and Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence, MBZUAI). Now I would go with the Business plan, but there might be reasons for this and the settings that AI processors give could still be a solution if these two clients put in the considerable work (no critique on the two trendsetters). As we see that “The remaining 14% of revenue is generated by a fragmented base of smaller enterprise, government, and cloud customers, but none contribute enough individually to reduce Cerebras’ heavy reliance on its top two clients. More recently, Cerebras inked agreements to supply its AI hardware to Amazon Web Services and OpenAI, which will diversify revenue streams for the company.” But the larger option is gaining traction. Now for the most we can ignore the fact that they are American (which is at present never a good selling point), but they  are also in Toronto and Bangalore. The issue is that they are no threat to Nvidia and they don’t need to be, the idea is that they could skim the market and take up traction pretty much anywhere. I reckon that they have done that, but there is the option that they could optionally feed data centers in China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, if that works and they could get the first one in these places, they are likely to gain several other corporations and locations for implementation. The reasoning I have is that there are several sounds from customers that they have a lack of processors, so are they tapped? It seems so as we see “Cerebras has a massive $24.6 billion backlog (including the $20 billion OpenAI deal), which provides strong demand visibility. The company expects to recognize approximately 15% of this revenue within the first 24 months through December 31, 2027, 43% during months 25 to 48, and the remainder thereafter. Still, Cerebras warns that converting this backlog into revenue depends on the manufacturing capacity of its partners, infrastructure deployment, and power availability.” It makes me wonder why the quote “Bleeding money at a rapid rate” was given. So as we see “Cerebras recorded a $363 million gain from a change in the fair value (and extinguishment) of a forward contract liability: the company had a financial obligation whose value was reduced, which allows it to book that reduction as income. If the value was not reduced, the company would be unprofitable. In fact, Cerebras’ operating losses totaled $145.9 million in 2025.” But even so, as I see it (with my lack of economy studies) thematic doesn’t seem to add up and my mind goes back to the business plan. It is my simplistic mind that goes with the setting that Cerebras either has a product that works or they have not. If they do, the client has to pay and there are no freebees in this market, you do that if the product is shoddy, and the salesperson either deals with the buyer correctly, or they don’t. It is my rather simplistic setting of customer service, “we have a product and we would love to have you as customer, yet, our product is not free”, it will rock your world (for a price) and within that setting (and the right business plan) Cerebras should do just fine. As such I don’t get the setting we see. So as we are also given “Cerebras postponed its IPO plans in 2024 after a national security review examined its ties with Abu Dhabi-based G42 amid concerns about potential foreign access to advanced AI processors. G42 is both a customer and investor of Cerebras, which controls a 1% stake in the company that it acquired for $40 million in 2021.” This is an issue as it involves 50% of their customer base and what is this “potential foreign access to advanced AI processors”? Is this another American setting (not unlike their stance towards Huawei)? You see China is sized at 1.413 billion, as such it is over 4 times the size of the USA, the United States can either play nice or go down with the ship they are sinking themselves. Cerebras could go towards the EU as well as India and partially fund the data centers there and get longer lasting revenue, but that is almost the only options that are there. This market is getting saturated and it is not a market that has time and options for prima donna’s, this is my simplistic view. So as the article ends with “Cerebras has not specified an official fundraising target in its IPO filing, but current market expectations point to a roughly $3 billion raise. This is significantly higher than earlier $1 billion plans, which reflect the company’s rapid revenue growth and the scale of its AI infrastructure ambitions.” It also signals that the ‘bleeding effect’ is a temporary setting, depending on how the IPO evolves. Yet as I see it, the IPO has a lot less chance of being successful as long as the “Bleeding money at a rapid rate” vision is in place. But as I see it, enlarging their customer base precedes the need for an IPO, because no I matter how good the IPO is, it is facing slaughter when the customer base is set to two. But as I stated, my lack of economy might be the ruling red herring here. 

And whilst I leave you with this article and a few hidden hints, I will go and look what happens to Cerebras before June, May it have a nice time.

Have an interesting day today (‘great’ is oversold too much, even by me).

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Whatever the BS indicates

So, I was looking at a few matters and some connect to yesterday’s setting. As such, this morning I was given by CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-losing-losing-losing-carney-trade-9.7171738) ‘Poilievre says Carney has been ‘losing, losing, losing’ on U.S. trade war’ and I personally call out this incorrect setting (calling it a lie is so crass) as I see it, PM Mark Carney has done whatever he can to make Canada less reliable on the United States, giving the country options and not to be set to the whim of a their own version of King George III and lets face it the one in the United States, looks nowhere near as good as Nigel Hawthorne (supporting evidence below).

We are given the additional “Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre launched a pointed attack on the Liberal government’s handling of the Canada-U.S. file Tuesday, saying the results so far have fallen well short of the mark and the prime minister is “losing” the trade war. Speaking to reporters after Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled his new trade advisory council to help with the U.S. dispute — a body that includes some big-name Conservatives — Poilievre lashed out, saying the Liberals ran on settling the issue at the last election but there has been no discernible progress to this point.” And in a stage where that less than appealing person in Washington, is calling Canada the 51st state, giving it tariffs that got well beyond what is acceptable (whilst giving Russia allegedly no tariffs) and whilst we see “Carney says there’s been a ‘rupture’ in Canada-U.S. relationship, while Poilievre wants to draw closer”, so does any real Canadian want to vote for Pierre Poilievre (also known as Peter Polivicious by some)?

So whilst we see this and whilst we were given yesterday ‘Trump says he does not want to extend ceasefire with Iran’ (source: Reuters), today we get ‘Trump says ceasefire extended as talks with Tehran in limbo’ (source: Al Jazeera) and this is a person Canada wants to get closer to? Then we get that a lot of Canadians are christians, so do you want to get close to a person who attacks the pope on humanitarian issues as well as “President Trump has been lobbing insults at Pope Leo XIV in response to his criticisms of the war in Iran and appeals for peace, marking an unusually pronounced rupture between the leaders of the world’s most powerful country and the world’s largest Christian denomination. But Leo criticized the Trump administration’s mass deportation efforts both before and after he was elected leader of the Catholic Church. He told reporters in November that the treatment of immigrants is “extremely disrespectful,” echoing the views of his predecessor, Pope Francis.” So do we (Commonwealthians) ever want to get close to this (so called) king? Or are we ready to steer the Commonwealth to safer waters? In that case, why would anyone ever consider the conservative PP or any of his arguments valid? OK, I will admit that the rental issues he raised last year were valid, but as I see it, no force in the Commonwealth gives rise to closer working with President Trump. 

And this is merely my view (also shared with many in the Commonwealth) and I could be wrong, but I do not think so. As such It is time to reflect on a few things that PM Mark Carney achieved over the last year (as I am not Canadian, I reserve the right to miss a few items).

And these items are merely of the last 15 months. Also he increased trade with China, revenue the country can really use and achieved a higher trade settings with the EU and NATO, optionally also increased trade with Australia and New Zealand. All options whatever the conservatives throw in to the mix would never achieve as they are most likely not equipped with the knowledge of Economy that the present Prime Minister has.

So feel free to agree or disagree, but whatever America throws at Canada (like: Meanwhile, the Americans are demanding Canada change dairy access rules and drop some protections for its cultural sector, among other demands) which is funny, because that is decided by Canada, not the United States. 

So you all have a great day and remember it is still yesterday in Vancouver.

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For a few Yuan more

So, yesterday I saw a MarketWatch article (at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-meaning-of-uae-reportedly-requesting-a-dollar-swap-line-6a40d630) where we see ‘The real meaning of UAE reportedly requesting a dollar swap line’, now don’t start running like a half baked cryotoboy to it’s mommy stating the world is ending (like we saw to weeks ago when some of them ran off to the airport), the byline gives us a clear “Economists believe the UAE is signaling it wants closer ties with allies, not a bailout” and I can agree with that. I have not seen seen any Emirati panic, or make bailout mentions. We are given “A report the United Arab Emirates requested a dollar swap line with the U.S. may be more a threat the Gulf nation could shift an alliance rather than a sign it’s about to run short of the American currency, observers said.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE central bank governor, Mohamed Balama,  requested a currency-swap line with the U.S. from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent while in Washington D.C. last week. The UAE is facing pressure from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though experts say its economy so far is strong enough to maintain a dollar peg.” It comes with the additional “Tim Ash, senior strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management, pointed out in a posting on X, that sovereigns do not request swap lines lightly. Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign relations agreed, also highlighting on X that he doesn’t believe UAE is in any emergency need of financial assistance, given it entered this conflict with huge holdings of U.S. Treasurys and significant forex reserves in excess of $250 billion. It’s important to note that the Emiratis have asked for a swap line and not a credit line.” And that is supported with graphics on ‘UAE forex reserves versus holdings of U.S. Treasurys, in billions of dollars.CFR’ and those numbers look good, even a non economist (like me) can see that the numbers of the UAE are good. Yet what we are also given is “Gave suggests, the UAE may be “sending a not-so-subtle message to the U.S., namely “leave the region and you will quickly be replaced by China.”

It might make sense and considering the damage that the United States Congress, a document produced on April 9th 2026, by Paul Kerr gives us “Iran’s nuclear program has for decades generated widespread concern that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons. According to past U.S. intelligence assessments, Tehran has the capacity to produce nuclear weapons at some point but has halted its nuclear weapons program and has not mastered all of the necessary technologies for building such weapons. The extent to which June 2025 and February 2026 Israeli and U.S. airstrikes affected Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons is unclear.” with the added “According to official U.S. assessments, Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003. This program’s goal, according to U.S. officials and the IAEA, was to develop an implosion-style nuclear weapon for Iran’s Shahab-3 ballistic missile. A 2025 public U.S. intelligence assessment stated that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon” and that the now-former Supreme Leader had “not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated on March 4, 2026, that the agency “never had information indicating that there was a structured systematic [Iranian] program to build or to construct a nuclear weapon.”

So, there was no real nuclear danger? And the Strait of Hormuz was open before this clambake started? It seems to me that the UAE (optionally with support of all other oil producing gulf nations) should give warning to not mess with their background, especially as it is roughly 7,000 miles away from Washington DC, as such no international waterways (connected) to the United States are in danger.

But in addition to the MarketWatch article, we see the Canadian DeepDive giving us (at https://thedeepdive.ca/uae-threatens-yuan-oil-trade-if-us-denies-dollar-lifeline-as-iran-war-drains-reserves/) ‘UAE Threatens Yuan Oil Trade if US Denies Dollar Lifeline as Iran War Drains Reserves’. The first part of opposition (by me) is that MarketWatch shows that the reserves are good. Basically DeepDive is not lying, reserves are seemingly being drained and that does not imply that the UAE reserves are in danger. But here we see “Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama brought the proposal to Federal Reserve officials and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington last week, the Journal reported. Abu Dhabi’s position, relayed through multiple officials: the war has strained its finances, dollar reserves could come under pressure, and if Washington does not provide a liquidity facility, the UAE may have little choice but to settle oil and gas trades in yuan or other non-dollar currencies. Emirati officials also told their US counterparts that Trump’s decision to attack Iran was what drew the country into the conflict to begin with. No formal application for a swap line has been submitted.” It is like the message Louis Gave, chief executive officer at Gavekal Research gave us, we merely get more information here. So like MarketWatch we see here “a bilateral currency swap with the Federal Reserve — would allow the UAE Central Bank to draw down dollars against dirhams at the prevailing exchange rate, effectively insuring against a hard-currency crunch without requiring emergency asset sales. 

The Fed currently holds standing arrangements of this kind with five central banks: the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank. Extending one to the UAE would mark a meaningful expansion of the Fed’s wartime financial commitments.” I am not enough of an economist to see the larger implications, but as I see it, President Trump started shitting in its economic backyard and now the people affected are saying (my of voicing it) “Stop this or we walk away from the US dollar in trade”, now you might think that I am overstating the ‘danger’ but consider that the US dollar is already under stress from a 39 trillion dollar debt (aka $39,000,000,000,000) and now when the Dollar trade offset is impacting trade other means of revenue would seemingly fall away, because it is never a simple setting (is it), and this would be the Home Run that China would love to see evolve. Do you really think this would be merely about oil? When oil starts, others will seek shelter and that is before others dump their $5 trillion (aka $5,000,000,000,000) in US treasury bonds. There have been noises that smaller amounts were ‘dismissed’ but the larger amounts are a worry for Wall Street, they are highly unlikely able to survive this pressure, as such the United States Administration better come up with a solution and quite fast. 

All this whilst Al Jazeera gives us ‘Iran war live: Uncertainty over talks, Trump insists deal to come ‘quickly’’ with the added “Iran says it has no plans to send negotiators to Pakistan for a new round of talks after the United States seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, President Donald Trump says US team, led by Vice President JD Vance, is on its way to Islamabad” So, one has no plans to send someone, whist the other states someone is on the way? How is that communicating? How is that any solution? That is the premise (given to us 14 minutes ago) that someone like China needs to dethrone the US dollar, so when China gives a solution in the next 24 hours, whilst President Trump starts commenting on his big beautiful solution for the world, the premise of the United States Dollar being removed from the oil trade becomes real. Do you really think that this is just about oil? Because this setting would require the better part of a decade to unwind. It is too early for me to say that the US dollar is out of this, but the other elements might make the pressures of the Dollar in the oil trade unmanageable. 

It is merely my point of view, no biggie. Have a great day, still 120 minutes until breakfast for me. I, hungry, all whilst it is lunchtime in Vancouver, what a bastards.

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The danger of assumption

I saw the CBC news, then I saw a YouTube video and as there is some relation, I thought it important to illustrate this as I am a Commonwealthian, as such I stand with Canada. The news (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/lockheed-martin-officials-canada-tout-maintenance-plan-f35s-9.7168398) where we see ‘Lockheed Martin officials coming to Canada to tout maintenance plan for F-35s’ I the first degree I was clearly on the Canadian side (I still am, in case you worry). We were given “Canada ordered 88 F-35s in 2023, but began reassessing its options after Trump took office” with an additional “Canada has a firm order for 16 F-35 aircraft, to begin delivery later this year, to replace Canada’s aging fleet of CF-18s. As CBC recently revealed, Canada has discreetly begun to incur expenses toward acquiring another 14 F-35 aircraft. Several politicians have been invited to Tuesday’s event in Mirabel, but National Defence Minister David McGuinty and Industry Minister Mélanie Joly do not plan to attend. Senior American executives from Lockheed Martin and L3Harris are expected at the event.” It comes with the added “In its media advisory, Lockheed Martin said its agreement with L3Harris “will provide Canada with greater control over aircraft maintenance, reduce reliance on overseas logistics and enhance operational readiness.” L3Harris is still trying to convince the governments of Canada and Quebec to offer funding to help modernize its facilities in Mirabel. The company has said thousands of jobs in the region are at stake. L3Harris is hoping to transform its Mirabel facilities, which are currently used to service CF-18s, into a maintenance depot for Canadian and American F-35s.” As I see it, it is an act of desperation. The much larger setting of the Saab JAS 39 Gripen a Swedish solution, is cheaper, is more reliable in cold environments and it comes with added of economic settings for Canada. Lockheed Martin has no real answer and President Trump made the sale of 88 F-35 a liability and Canada is looking for a better solution, one that takes the pressures away from the United States giving Canada. The Swedish solution makes perfect sense for Canada and as such Canada is seemingly (I use seemingly as I have never seen the original sales documents) chasing Sweden and its Saab solution. The simple bottom line is that Canada can get 2 Saabs for every F35, as such it is quite the cost saving. As such Lockheed Martin is scared, its own president endangered the sale for billions and that is a problem, as such the options given to Canada is fluidic, more options and there is the fear factor, a fear factor for the United States, because Canada when it pulls out the American pillars of economy and taxation are almost certain to collapse. And Lockheed Martin is the first corporation to fae billion dollar losses because of the silliness of one particular person in Washington.

The setting that spending on nearly any kind in the United States are seen as the more risky spending is now seen as other spending settings is considered and there is a win for Sweden as well as the EU on other fields. There was a second setting, but it seems that there is a level of inaccurate settings by Today Canada stating that yesterday at 03:45 Trump stated “51st state soon”, it would be anger instilling, but I found no evidence that this actually happened and if it was on Trump social media, everyone would be shouting it. 

So that is not a factor, but the underlying setting is (which the media is ignoring too) the underlying setting is that the United States is (as I personally see it) almost completely out of cash. They are shifting all kinds of posts that they can pay later for what they need to pay now. I have given these views in the past (not interested in hashing out the same) but the setting adds up. As such I believe that CBC is reporting on the desperation of gaining the favour of Canada and they are willing to bend over backwards. And as a definite winner is not announced (not in the media) Lockheed Martin believes it has options for now. And whatever the actual sentimentality is towards Canada, there is a firm believe that President Trump has actually united the world. As far as I know the United States is now (for the most) the most hatred nation in the western world. So president Trump united all the nations. The fact that it is against the united States might be a mere blip on his radar. The problem is that the media is no help as they lost too much credibility and as such the influencers and doom speakers are now calling for out attention (players like Today Canada) and should they be right, then they should present the evidence, not just the images of old, with suiting dialogue. And as I usually check all the sources handed to me, Today Canada fell through the basket a fake news bringers.

But the setting is still of importance not directly what President Trump did or did not do, but the need to vetting the information we get must be vetted. Some (like CBC) get a pass through the credibility they earned over time, which means that there is credibility. 

So as we see the desperation of Lockheed Martin and the setting of the Saab Gripen, it would help if the world (and Canadians in particular) get a nice setting of what the story with Saab and Lockheed Martin is, what has been agreed upon and what is clearly set and what is still in tentative settings. We all get that there are tentative settings, but as I see it, with the United States any other option seems more reliable (as I personally see it). 

And whilst we can assume most things, we can at times presume a few things and those with reliability are more credible and with personal exposure to facts presumption gains more weight and those who blindly assume will lose whatever reliability they had.

Have a great day.

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Secondary reasoning

That was the first thing that hit me when I was introduced to the BBC article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn08ep6d5ndo) named ‘US home buyers ‘frozen’ as sales slump over Iran war fears’ a few hours ago. You see, what it says here is not a lie, it is incomplete. We are given “The US housing market is struggling as the impact of higher mortgage rates, fuelled by the US-Israeli war in Iran, begins to bite. Figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed the number of homes sold in March hit their lowest level for nine months, falling by 3.6% from a month earlier.” You see, the population of the United States is starting to figure out that this president will throw them under any truck heading for them, hoping it will slow that truck down. So whilst we see “impact of higher mortgage rates”, which might be true, but there is a whole lot of other factors playing. We see labor statistics giving the media that 178,000 is good and much better then we thought. But in that meantime Oracle sacked 30,000 people and they are not the only one and whilst we partially accept that this is the fuel the AI pressures. Some will realise that AI doesn’t yet exist and that the fallout will be soon. And as Europe is abandoning Microsoft (for plenty of reasons) the setting of data centers when they are not getting filled with data is another setting in that cog. Then there is the Iranian clambake which is not about the clambake, it is about the price of oil, so whilst like the house as presented. Some will see that the heating bill will grow sand in the cogs and whilst the mortgage goes up by factions at a time, the heating bill will take gulps out of your budget and it will drive fuel prices up. So your house in a nice place, it is also miles form the place of work and that is the real driver. So whilst some are in the dark on how many people, drowned on the Titanic (1997, James Cameron) the world will agree that it was a boatload and the specifics are basically made redundant. 

So when we are given “following drops in January and February, rates have shot up since the US-Israeli war began. They are increasing on expectations the US central bank could continue to hold interest rates in order to keep inflation under control, dashing hopes of further cuts by the Federal Reserve.” There is no mention that President Trump bashed the hopes of home builders by pissing of Canadian lumber, driving those prices up even further, this gives additional money requirement to houses and which now requires a slightly steeper interest setting. So whilst you want to say that you are happy with the $200K home, the additional $780 on additional mortgage and the additional price of lumber (set to a rough $5125) is not in the budget and it drives the prices up. Now we get oil that was $69 per barrel in 2025, we now see that same barrel going for $98 dollar, almost 50% more expensive, so consider that some claim that by June that price is a plausible $150. So, who can afford to heat their houses at 50% higher energy bills, with the optional 50% raise in a few months. And it is all due to their kind and loving president (I believe his name is Donald Trump). 

So whilst the BBC article gives the people in the United States plenty to worry about, the US finance industry has a much tougher time ahead. Because at this rate close to (a speculated) 17% of the housing market will collapse and the people who are in dire need to get rid of their homes will not find any buyers. But I recon that the Finance industry will hold hands and become the new landlords to a massively tough market.

As such, houses are more expensive, fueling houses (electricity and heating) will make them unaffordable and the borrowing ability of the United States goes straight from ground level to basement level 5. So whilst we might give some validity to “Indicators point to “weakening housing demand following a recent jump in mortgage rates and a collapse in consumer confidence”, said Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics. Both are “knock-on effects” of the Iran conflict, he added.” The words given doesn’t make Thomas Ryan clever, perhaps the fact that he is avoiding that all this was due to the American Administration is and the several factors that are ‘ignored’ have nothing to do with Iran, it has everything to do with some narcissistic individual that he was the next Jesus in a nasty line of nobodies. And make no mistake, when the other factors come to play, there is no avoiding the setting of the US administration, because when (not if) the European stability, which requires and absence of Microsoft come knocking. The data centers that have no input will be pushed in to a bad mortgage bank which will then be pushed into receivership. So my next question becomes: 

And I reckon that the silence that follows will be deafening. Only a fool takes on a war at two fronts (Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821) and only the king of fools sets a tariff and bully demand on 15 fronts (Donald Trump, 1946 – who cares). It is a setting that will haunt the United States until at least 2076, but some say that the United States will not survive until then, giving the history of the United States with less then 300 years, a setting of greed and exploitation in plenty of books to reminiscence over.

But then, I could be wrong. Do you think I am wrong, or are the factors you see starting to make sense and when that happens where will you place the media in all this. A mere reporting entity or a bleeding effect of greed and digital dollars?

Have a great day.

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