Tag Archives: NATO

Escalations

Things escalate, this happens and sometimes it is part of a plan, at times it is not. The Ukraine issues can only escalate. If Vladimir Putin states that it is up to the other side we can safely conclude that he is massively delusional. In between headlines like ‘Russia’s unspeakable horrors in northern Ukraine: Torture, murder and cluster bombs’, ‘Russia’s mass rapes in Ukraine are a war crime. Its military leaders must face prosecution’ and ‘Second British soldier captured in Mariupol is paraded on Russian TV’ we see little other path than the path of escalation. Of course there was good news too. 

As speculation goes, the Russian navy is just as dependable as Russian tanks. They are both equally effective in adhering to gravity and the Russian cruiser Moskva is giving testimony of that at the bottom of the Black Sea. The Slava class, Soviet designation Project 1164 Atlant, a class of guided missile cruisers designed and constructed in the Soviet Union for the Soviet Navy, and currently operated by the Russian Navy. Well there were two, now there is one, so 50% of their guided missile class has been destroyed. Is that what they mean with ‘Slava Ukraina’? 

Anyway, escalation. The Dutch are possibly restoring their active duty needs, and many nations are adhering to this as well. There is every thought that Russia woke up a setting they were not ready for and their Nuclear arsenal is all they might have between defeat and utter defeat. With all the Nazi claims they made, we see more and more that their actions represent the Nazi activities. So in the end, will we see a Nuremberg like trial in Strasbourg where the defendants will all respond in the same similar way? We will hear all of them state “Я выполнял приказы”, but in the end in Nuremberg 161 were convicted, and 37 were sentenced to death. I wonder how many Russians will end up with a death sentence. We see rape, torture, murder of civilians, we see the bombing of hospitals, the deployment of cluster bombs and the indiscriminate executions of people trying to flee the war-scene. The drones recorded a lot more than that and the Russians will face the rim reaper in many ways. That and the stage that life of a Russian outside of Russia (or Cuba) is now a thing of the past. These are all escalations that are happening now and will be happening more in the next month. Even now as Forbes is contemplating a G20 without Russia, we see the long term damage and that turns Russia in a 3rd world nation. It was going good and then it turned nearly every nation on the planet in another direction. You see commerce requires trade and how much trade can Syria, Belorussia and Cuba offer? That and the end of Gas-exports are making for a nasty treasury coffer and whilst Russia depends on its army, the hardware that army needs is sinking, destroyed or out of gas. Escalations can go in any direction, yet history shows us that most escalations go in the wrong direction and Russia is experiencing this the hard way. We sometimes forget WW1. My Grandfather was there and as such I keep tabs on that event. Does anyone remember the fallout of WW1? The Treaty of Versailles (signed in 1919) and the 1921 London Schedule of Payments set a massive bill for Germany after WW1, I reckon that Russia faces an even steeper bill on the damage they did to Ukraine. I reckon that 90% of al Russians will pay 20% taxes on their income for 30 years to Ukraine. That is the setting of escalation and that is the consequence of waging war, its invoice has always been the harshest message. And as I consider what might be next, we might see a new NATO, an EU army with France leading it, it is the most ready and the best equiped at present. A setting both the UK and Germany would not have held possible a year ago. What a difference 53 days can make. 

I wonder if older and very grey Vladimir Putin has any idea what is coming his way in the short term?

They say that confidence cannot escalate to arrogance, it only happens if the blood of pride is running through your veins. Knowing that picking a fight with Ukraine was not the best idea to have, but it seems he is learning that the hard way. You can doubt me and it would be fair, just ask the captain of the Moskva, he is in the Black Sea somewhere. 

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The joke that was once CCCP

I grew up in the aftermath of the cold war. My friends and myself, my street friends as well as myself, we feared Russia, we worried about what they were able to do. Russia was regarded as very dangerous. Then the 90’s came. The stories of collaboration came, the stories of acceptance came and we rejoiced in part. There was an option of co-existence. We rejoices and we saw and hoped for the best. And for 30 years that continued. At some point there were sides in me that had a pro-Russian side. I abhorred the Chechen attack on Moscow civilian buildings. There was a side we all saw that Russia was not as bad as the Americans made them out to be. An afterthought of McCarthyism and I was wondering if America would ever learn their one sided hatred.

March 2022
The Ukrainian invasion is going on for about a week, for about a week we have questions, we wonder what set this in motion. What did the EU do, what did NATO do? But there is no clear answer and within a week we get to see the other side, the side that sanctifies the position of America. At present a dozen sources show me the Putin monster. The Russian acts of crime, transgressions of the articles of war, transgressions of humanitarian war and we see this all happen and we see governments do too little, or nothing at all. They send equipment, they send hardware, they send software but the Ukrainians fight by themselves (largely) and the 21st largest army on the planet is pushing back the second largest army in the world. The Russia we feared is losing hardware, people and morality. They lose on much larger scales than ever expected and Russia merely changes what the truth is on their TV stations and via trolls all over the world. There are some who fights these parties, but too little of them are there to make sure the people get to see the truth. The Guardian gave us in one instance “He said in one interview: “You see these atrocities and you are still not ready to do anything to make Putin lose his appetite for these atrocities. How can you sleep if you find strong words after these pictures, but do nothing? What else should happen so that the toughest sanctions are put on the table? Chemical attacks, or what is it you are waiting for?”” What is it you are waiting for is a generic question, it applies to governments as well as others and it applies to a lot of governments. Russia is done for. It could start a nuclear war, but all nations will turn on Russia that much they do know. China will not act until provoked but when they do it will be the end of Russia and it is not even close to the near end. 

The BBC gives us ‘Ukraine war: The Syrians signing up to fight for Russia’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middle-east-60931180) there we are given “Social media in Syria has been flooded with requests for people to join Russian troops in return for up to $7,000 for deployment” how long do you think Russia can set this game? If these troops get paid after 6 months, they are stupid and they will die stupid, their families will get nothing. If they get paid ahead and they hand it to their families, the Ukrainians will end their lives and we will see two parts, A Syria without men, women with money and nowhere to go and Russia with even more debt. And that is not the end. Nations like the Netherlands are showing themselves to have too many pro-Putin people in too powerful places and that should worry NATO, when FVD party leader Thierry Baudet states that there is no Russian aggression. When we see the dozens of photographs, the cadavers burned, shot in the streets, the setting of a government too dangerous to be part of any decision maker stream involving NATO. There is a clear stage that this merely involved 2-3 people, but they have too much power and any intelligence going to Russia is not acceptable. We need to set a much stronger example and we need to make sure that politicians, just like the WW2 NSB politicians are set to example. If they want to run to Russia fine, but they better leave fast and no argument on ‘the stage of nuance’ will be accepted, not when one states “there is no Russian aggression” and we see dozens of photographs, videos of civilian bombings, shooting of civilians in the streets will be accepted as some form of nuance. I will personally hang that traitor in a tree and if I have to spend the rest of my life in jail for that, then so be it. 

And we are nowhere near the end yet. You see the Russian army is about to become a joke, a bad one at that and the deployment of Syrian troops in Ukraine merely because the Russians do not have the ability makes me wonder why we were ever nervous about Russia. It makes me wonder what the Russians are about, when they have such a political and military engine, when they openly and knowingly support inhumane actions against civilians, what is left of a once proud nation is not worthy of writing down. I believe that Piers Morgan stated it best “How much of a cowardly society have we become?” As I see it, the Russian bear was defeated buy Paddington bear and the other nations were for the most on the sidelines watching. And lets not forget, their inactions is what Russia is using to gain Syrian fighters and that is the next round of slaughter we get to see and it is clear that Putin is not about diplomacy, it is to satisfy the need for blood, to make sure that if Ukraine wins, it will be on the premise of scorched earth. 

And we all have front row tickets to watch these events unfold. 

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The internal battle

We all have them and I am no different, yet there is also a stage of awe, not to me, to President Zelensky. You see, here I take the backstage (happily and willingly), a nation that is not widely known (other than it had a nuclear reactor that melted down), a stage Iran could face in the near future. The Ukraine stopped the Russian war machine, the Russian war machine is now entering the second month. Not bad for a nation that has a president who sounds remarkably like Paddington bear (according to some children). So basically the Russian bear was stopped by Paddington bear. (Hunney anyone?) A nation with the size that amounts to 21st position in military power stopped the nation who is the second largest military on the planet and conventionally, logistically and communicatively the Russians are coming up short by a lot. What was first considered a milk-run is now an absolute failure for Russia. It is like watching the The Detroit Red Wings going up to the Cleveland Lumberjacks and the Red Wings are at present losing 1-4, a stage no bookmaker could have ever predicted. So why is there an internal battle? 

This battle is twofold, in the first setting the absence of hardcore support by all other nations is a bit disappointing. Yet we saw the list of stuff on route to Ukraine, but we can clearly see it is not enough, the other side of this battle is that sending more could spark a less nice stage, should we fear that? I believe we do, not because it is spoken from fear (it might be a little), it is because the escalations in the Kremlin might make the hardcore people there support one person to push a red button (I am guessing it is red). That would change the stage for all time and nearly all would be hit, optionally the only speculative safe place on the planet might be New Zealand. That is not a good place to be and we all know this. On the other hand the nuclear winter will take care of whatever global warming issues we have, so there is that to look forward to. 

So we can on one hand not give way to a bully, but this bully does not wield a bat, it wield a nuclear arsenal and that will end everything. No matter what happens after that, Russia will be done for, it will be isolated and it will be hunted by EVERY nation on the planet for all eternity and no amount of political BS by whatever Russia has left will be accepted anywhere. They were the ones who pushed the button, almost like an 80’s think-tank scenario. A stage we never thought would happen. All whilst some give us ‘NATO ready to threaten Putin with ‘far-reaching consequences’ if Russia uses chemical, nuclear weapons’ we seem to forget that Russia has 6257 Nuclear missiles, should they all be fired not much will be left, so what far reaching consequences will be done? If Russia fires theirs, there is every chance that NATO will fire the 6200 and some responses (USA, France, UK), so what in the end will be left to give consequence to? If it comes to blows, the planet will remain in the hands of China, India, 5 million kiwi’s and 25 million New Zealand sheep. With the chance that only New Zealand could supply the world with vegetables and mutton that does not make you glow in the dark. 

So yes, there is an internal battle and even though I refuse to give in that it is all fear, there will be fear because I remember the 1983 movie ‘the Day after’ and I do remember some of the inserted parts being NATO training movies. So the impact will be close to total. Should we worry? I believe we do (to some degree), we always believed that the US and Russian leaders would be solid, but the invasion of Ukraine (by Russia) proves me wrong on the very first count, which makes the rest a speculation at best.

What happens next? I have no idea, but then the rest of the world does not either know at present. 

 

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ABC to the rescue

In this case they came to my rescue, I was wondering what to write next. I was contemplating a movie revival, an upgraded gaming revival and some IP I was contemplating. But as I was pondering the issues. I saw an ABC article, 3 days old mind you. I had seen it on Saturday, at least someone (aka trollrensics) showed me the goods on Saturday and I giggled. Yet today I noticed the Russian response to Canada’s corrections (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-18/russia-slams-canada-un-mission-after-ukraine-letter-edits/100920686) with the headline ‘Russia slams ‘kindergarten-level libel’ after Canada’s UN group tweets annotated letter’, in this I personally find that countering the acts of a monster, treating them like children is a decent solution.

You can bomb civilian target all you want, but that does not make it OK, it merely shows the monster in you. The setting of an illegal act and those who acted in that way will have to hide within the Putin regime for all eternity, because when the reality hit the Russian people, they will not be safe anywhere on this planet. 

My issue with this thought is that it does not help the Ukraine now, now as its civilian cities are bombed, as civilians fleeing the war hazards are gunned down, as they drive away from these issues, their cars are targeted by rocket fire. And these are not figments of my imagination, there are YouTube video’s and TikTok videos out there that show what a monster Russia is. I have some issues with the oligarchs getting hit, people who might (or might not) have some say in the current Russian government. And the ‘might’ stops me currently from opposing it, but on the other side we see Ukrainians getting labelled ‘Russians’ In the US and Canada and they are getting chastised by people who cannot see the difference, a more widespread form of McCarthyism. 

So as ABC gives us “Russia has accused Canada of childishly annotating a letter it sent at the United Nations seeking support for its draft resolution on providing aid access and civilian protection in Ukraine. In a spat on Twitter, Canada’s UN mission added multiple remarks to the March 16 missive from Russia’s UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia.” And lets face it hen we are given “Our draft demands all parties to respect their obligations under forces that appear to international humanitarian and human rights law,” whilst that SAME nation is bombing civilian buildings, shooting civilians in the street, deploying butterfly bombs and violently disrupting people from fleeing war-zones is their anything less we should do then ridicule the people who do this and making fun of their false trumpet (aka Vassily Nebenzia)?

And the Canadian party was clear and correct, feel free to explain the bombing of a maternity ward and 200 schools. That is beside the setting that a person who is relying on ‘international humanitarian and human rights law’ denying these laws and these settings to the Ukrainian population, and as there is now more and more evidence the Russian population as well. To be honest, I am uncertain how people who set the gears in motion to shoot unarmed civilians and children can live with themselves. So as all my readers are now getting the three annotated pages through them thousands more will see the horror that was once a proud nation, a proud nation now descended to a group of nations like Nazi-Germany (1935-1945) and those military leaders hiding behind “these were my orders” they will hang in a Nuremberg trial like setting. As evidence is growing that ever the Russians will not stomach that level of actions, these people will one way or another be dealt with. My problem is that it does not help the Ukraine now. At 60 I am too old to play Call of Duty for real, but I can shine light wherever possible to show that it is Putin who has become the new Hitler (no disrespect to Adolf Hitler), a stage no Russian would ever had seen possible that the person they fought in the streets of Leningrad is now leading the Kremlin. 

So how should Canada have acted (at least they did act)? I reckon that when this does end, and in the end it will not end well for Russia, people like Vassily Nebenzia will learn that their legacy will be to be scorned by almost all nations on the planet. This letter was merely the start, I merely hope it will not be too late for the Ukraine and its people.

At present thousands of anti Russian works of art are gracing the streets more and more. I do hope that someone is photographing the art and making sure that a book will be created where the proceeds go to the Ukrainian people. You see most of the cities of the Ukraine are now in rubble and the auction proceeds of 100 oligarchs will not be sufficient to foot that bill. It will require the Russian coffers and its taxation for well over 30 years to pay for that. I just hope that enough Ukrainians can be saved before all that comes to pass. 

So as the article gives us “Relations between Russia and several Western nations continue to plummet to new lows since the Kremlin launched its invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin claims he is engaged in a “special military operation”.” I think I will put that pot on a fire and add my own resolution. You see on the 14th of December 2021 I wrote ‘Keeping my promise, part 1.’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/12/14/keeping-my-promise-part-1/) that and the stories after that were a conceptual design to melt down an Iranian nuclear reactor and it just hit me, it is Russian design as such this method will work on EVERY RUSSIAN NUCLEAR REACTOR. Yes a bit brazen, but if proven, Russia will now have to add protection to every nuclear reactor they have and the plans are online in my blog, so have a nice day Vladimir Putin, you should never just have been afraid of the military, creative civilians can make life a lot harder for you for an eternity to come as will the stress of the 38 nuclear reactors that Russia at present has running. Will it work? I hope it does, when that does Russia will face a much harder enemy then anything the Ukraine or NATO can throw at him, the Russian people can destroy Russia from thee inside out and those in the Kremlin will not have much of an option, its own armies will turn against them. 

This Monday might not be that bad for a change. I need coffee (we all need something at times).

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Accusatio et testimonio

That is the setting and I waited for a few hours. To be honest I had doubts when the news reached me via Saudi Arabia News. So I checked, Al Jazeera had it, ABC had it and i24 news had it. You know who did not have it? BBC, the Guardian, the Times, even the sanctimonious Washington Post. None of them had it and lets face it, there is nothing news about ‘2,000 children recruited by Yemen’s Houthis died fighting: UN’ (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/30/2000-children-recruited-by-yemens-houthis-died-fighting-un). Lets be clear this is not some accusation, this is a report by the United Nations which then gives us “A United Nations report found children aged between 10 and 17 years are being lured into fighting Yemen’s internationally recognised government” In this, do you still think I am kidding when I mentioned that stake holders are filtering the news that we are allowed to have? Of all sources, the BBC, the Guardian, the Times, the Washington Post, the LA Times, the list goes on regarding top tier newspapers who all basically forgot to mention it and we are likely to hear an ‘oops’ by some. This is what Saudi Arabia and the UAE faces an opponent using children and it is not for our eyes. It didn’t even make the Save the Children International news who gave us a week ago that three children were killed. Beat that with a charity fence. 

So this is what Al Jazeera gives us “The children are instructed to shout the Houthi slogan ‘death to America, death to Israel, curse the Jews, victory to Islam’,” the four-member panel of experts said. “In one camp, children as young as 7 years of age were taught to clean weapons and evade rockets”, that is the reality that Saudi Arabia faces, that is the reality we face and these children will get hardened and more extreme and more militant as they get to 18, they will have more combat training then the average NATO soldier. That is the reality of a war that Houthi forces with Iranian support are bringing to our shores and the stakeholders do not want us informed, perhaps the have some golden joke to serve Iran, perhaps it is about the billions in oil revenue that end up in the hands of some middle man, but there is an agenda, there always is. And we can no longer afford that agenda, we need to pick a side, this war has been going on for almost 7.5 years and there is no end in sight and with the Houthi forces now relying on children there is no future for Yemen either. We could just bomb it into the stone age and be done with it. But that would imply we would have to do the same to Iran and Hezbollah. Iran is fine, we get rid of 85 million people and problems are solved. But what about Hezbollah? What about those 5 million people? When will it end? I tell you, when we give full and complete support to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, that is when we get a first clear victory and the beginning of the end becomes visible. We will also make sure that Iran is no longer welcome there. It was a clear path that has been staring us in the face for well over 4 years, but we took pride in grannies with their CAAT and ‘no weapons to Saudi Arabia’ banners and we thought the problem was gone. No it never was, we merely gave billions in sales to China and Russia and lost out there too. Now we have lost options and listening to media in denial of events does not help, listening to stakeholders does not help. A setting that has been clear for years, yet we were in denial. Why? Houthi drone bombings on Saudi civilian targets never made the news. And now you can see it for yourself, the large papers seem to silence a UN report. All whilst news tends to waste papers on any UN report even when no one cares, but 2000 children? Do you think we will care or will we not? I let you decide and check the time of WHEN these other papers give us the news, because after the fact is nice when it is a hiker getting lost, but a United Nation report on 2000 children being pushed into a war? How does that sit with you?

I will let you figure it out.

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The thin ice

We have all been there, whether it was in early years when you were trying to cross ice that was not deemed safe, or perhaps later in life when you relied on a stage where you could not be certain, we all have been there, and so was I, not merely was, I am doing it again today.

There was no doubt that the AUKUS stage was set, it was set and prepared for, the French never had a chance and we need to realise that. We need to realise two main parts here (well actually a few more, but let’s start with two).

The first is the Guardian (not the only one) who gives us (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/17/france-recalls-ambassadors-to-us-and-australia-after-aukus-pact) ‘France recalls ambassadors to US and Australia after Aukus pact’, some newspapers, not all give us “That deal became bogged down in cost over-runs, delays and design changes”, which is fair enough. Yet the US with the Zumwalt and F-35 fiasco’s will have to button down the hatches very clearly to avoid the same disaster projects. The second one is less clear, it is about a united front towards China. I never stated that China was an innocent bystander, they were not. We might not be in a war or a seemingly hostile environment, but there is an issue and the US who has no hope to counter this alone found a way to add two horses, the UK and Australia to pull that carriage towards the China sea. France was left behind and that will have repercussions down the line, yet in all this, consider the media, who are they serving? Which stakeholder are they servicing? Consider the new Collins class submarines, in all the news (from all sides) who have been giving exposure to “That deal became bogged down in cost over-runs, delays and design changes”? That list is not that big and why is that? It was the Weekend Australian of all places that give us “According to informed sources, the costings for Core Workstate 2 submitted by Naval Group were at least 50 per cent higher than the Defence estimate of $2.5-$3bn. This total included completion of the submarine construction yard being built at Osborne North by government-owned Australian Naval Infrastructure to the functional requirements of Naval Group. Naval Group has declined to answer questions on the funding issue — or indeed on virtually anything else — but is understood to have submitted, without success, a much-reduced figure to Canberra.” They did so on the 22nd of May 2021 (at https://www.theaustralian.com.au/special-reports/funding-threat-hangs-over-future-submarine-program/news-story/827aef23757bef95adc822d7acd696ec), Australia and Submarine give us 74 million hits and we needed to get to page 16 of that search to get this information. Whilst a lot are ‘hiding’ behind “cost over-runs, delays and design changes” it was the Australian that gives us the “at least 50 per cent higher” that is not parts of a glass of wine, that is the entire barrel when you considered that the meek estimate of an annual $3bn was offered. I feel certain that political income trimming will not produce the missing one billion and short change. So what gives?

I do understand that I need to be careful, mostly because this is not my field of expertise. Most of my Submarine knowledge comes from Operation Petticoat (Cary Grant, Toni Curtis), The hunt for Red October (Sean Connery) and Silent Hunter (EA Games). They are not the same, and I do fully realise that. We could hope for the involvement of Paul McCartney and if he gets involved we can paint those 12 beasts yellow, but still, not a real solution, is it?

Oh, and for the reality of it all China has at present 74 submarines, so our chances are not great, they also allegedly have a much better fifth generation fighter (Chengdu J-20), so are we out to rumble or show our teeth? In this we are about to order a set of teeth for the price of $75,000,000,000 so we better get it right, being in a nation with 25,000,000 people, it is not an invoice we should be happy about, I get it, it might be an essential one, but that does not mean we need to be happy. 

The thin ice is a dangerous place, it is more than ice that is seemingly missing layers of stability, there is dangerous waters below and even if it is not deep, the hypothermia can be equally deadly as is the deepest ocean. This thin ice we face also hides stuff. It hides stakeholders who decide what we can hear and what we should not be allowed to hear and the media is at fault. Hiding too much for too many, the stakeholders are the media uncontrolled and unregistered set of lobbyists who shape the story we are allowed to see and if fake media wasn’t dangerous enough, filtered information bringers (like breakfast shows) add to the danger, add to keeping us uninformed. I agree with campsite leaders (Mike Burgess, Richard Moore, and William J. Burns) we do not need to know all, I have no problems with that, but they do not respond to stakeholders, the stakeholders are in it for corporate executives and boards of directors, they do not get to dictate us anything. What these people get away with is close to unacceptable and when they dictate our budgets and defence to us, I shiver and I do get worried and a little scared. And the media is helping them!

So we have a few issues, apart from the US Military construction follies, we have a new stage where we become a buffer opposing Chinese acts. I think that the utter lack of working actions by the UN against the Uygurs is part of this, the blatantly evidentially unsupported actions against a firm like Huawei is another. I see in part the accusation against Huawei and the entire NATO collection of jesters have NEVER given clear evidence on how they are a threat. You think it does not matter, but it does. A market where lazy people want to make claims so that they can get some coins whilst they slept through the motion is an invalid act and that needs to be said. It is a clear setting. Corporate executives used (as I personally see it) stupid politicians so that they could steal work orders and sales. A market that they are still likely to lose comes from sitting on your hands. This taints the China setting, and these stakeholders know this. 

If we were to investigate the US national 5G environment, we would learn that 5G at 4G LTE speed is not really 5G. Canada, South Korea and Saudi Arabia have a much better handle on that. 

So let’s make sure that OUR National defence is properly set up. Are nuclear submarines the wrong choice? I do not know, I believe that nuclear powered systems have a space and when you see what needs to be done to keep a diesel submarine fed over 3-4 years, a decent case for Nuclear submarines can be made. And let’s make sure the people understand that a nuclear submarine does not mean its weapons are nuclear. I get the distinct feeling that too many people do not realise that. A nuclear submarine means a nuclear powered submarine and we need to see the difference. If that takes away coins from Saudi Arabia, then so be it. We are not here to pay for the existence of Aramco (or Saudi Aramco as it is often referred to). 

Yet underneath it all, I recognise that I am on thin ice. I am not an expert on submarines, or an expert on far east tactics. I do however feel that we all have been watching disjointed parts of information because that is what the bosses of stakeholders seemingly want, We merely need to find out who the stakeholders are and who they report to. If you doubt me, consider the actual news sources, the actual news given and the complete news and wonder what was missing from a lot of them (not all) and also realise that a news article cannot give EVERYTHING, but some parts should not have been missed. Should you doubt that, consider a look into Litecoin and how we are now seeing more and more “the Litecoin creator also said that not much can be done by the Litecoin Foundation about bad actors spreading fake news”, as well as “According to the fake press release on Monday (September 13, 2021)”, a pump and dump action involving BILLIONS implies orchestration, so why is the FBI not all over that? Why is the news smothering events there too? This was not some prank, this got past EVERY filter and check of Canadian Global News until it was way too late. So what happens when it is not merely a multi billion hustle, but what happens when it impacts the national security of more than one nation? Consider that when you walk the thin ice too, the thin ice is dangerous because the weaknesses are below the ice and  below that is water, and often you do not know how cold or how much water there is.

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Where the grass is greener

It is a question that comes from an expression, which also has the answer. And we will look into that later. It seems that the US is taking larger steps in ending the friendship with Saudi Arabia. Politico reported yesterday ‘U.S. pulls missile defences in Saudi Arabia amid Yemen attacks’ (at https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/11/missile-defense-saudi-arabia-511320), now we can understand that some are not willing to sell arms, but a defence system that stops terrorists sending drones and missiles on civilian targets? It seems that the actions are a prelude for the US to get into bed with Iran (highly speculative) and that is a concept worthy of laughter, but I am not laughing. 

The setting that is given is “the perception is very clear that the U.S. is not as committed to the Gulf as it used to be in the views of many people in decision-making authority in the region” we get this from Kristian Ulrichsen, a research fellow at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. I think there is more to that, but it lacks evidence. I for one have believed for years that the US (NATO allies too) were playing a one step destabilisation game in the middle east. A game where destabilisation is a mere one step away and that is no longer the case. Until thee is a direct blow between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the larger stage is not maintained and the US is getting out of there. For China it is good news, now that they are looking at another customer for the HQ-9 and a few other options. Yes, we see the western press all shouting on ending arms deals, but in the end Saudi Arabia should be allowed to defend itself and the need to defend against Houthi terrorist attacks is a prime concern for a lot of people there. So is there an alternative? Well, there is the Russian alternative, but they are shipping that to Iran, so to buy those as well is a bit of an issue on a few levels, but those objections work for China. Consider that China now has a direct setting to sell well over $17,000,000,000 in hardware to Saudi Arabia, the same will now be lost to the US in an age where they are absolutely broke. It never made sense to me, it is all nice to have high morals, but in an age where you cannot afford to buy bread and healthcare high morals just leads to more hunger in a day and age where most cannot afford such luxuries. And let’s be clear, this is not some banana republic, this is a well established monarchy. And whilst we see “From the Saudi point of view, they now see Obama, Trump and Biden — three successive presidents — taking decisions that signify to some extent an abandonment.” We merely see more and more options for China and that is merely the beginning, once the stage is set the US will lose more ground and that also leads to a stage where they are completely dependent on Israel to give them intelligence.  A stage that could have been prevented from the start and no matter how they see it and I am accepting that it is their policy, it also comes with the new policy that the OPEC nations might have a new consideration, oil to China and not to the US or Europe (mostly reduced amounts of oil to Europe) And it will not aid Strasbourg to start crying foul here, it is the consequence of closing settings and in all this I personally prefer China and not Russia to get these options, it is a personal matter (NATO related). The larger stage will also hit Egypt, should Saudi Arabia continue with Huawei to set 5G connections in Egypt, the economic footprint of Saudi Arabia will change, all whilst the US ends up with a reduced footprint and that is a stage that is now escalating over the next 12-18 months. 

Will I be right?
That is open to interpretation and it is open to a few factors that are not given, untested and lacking evidence, but there is a larger stage that this could play out and that is really bad news for anyone not relying on Huawei hardware, with the US pulling out of areas that stage will also lose a few more settings, so as Chinese hardware comes in, US consultants will lose more and more traction in larger areas and that is the stage some players (seemingly) overlooked. So when Analysys Mason and Boston Consulting Group start missing deals and getting less appointments you know it will be too late for a few options. There are a few more players there, but they have a much larger stage with more nations and more options, they might end up with a few projects that are China based. 

So why would Saudi Arabia move to Egypt?

It is a fair question and it sets a much larger stage where Neom city will be all 5G and to stretch out towards Egypt makes perfect sense, one large network that stretches from Cairo to Jeddah, to Mecca and via Riyadh to Dammam, a network that also includes Neom, one of the biggest 5G networks in the world and it would be all Saudi, now consider the lack of credibility that the west has in a place like Egypt and now a fellow Islamic nation offers to include Egypt, what do you think Egypt will do? And lets not forget with all the band and embargo’s and collateral damage the US has in its name, Egypt is ready to seek a telecom alliance with Saudi Arabia and their numbers look really good compared to the US, it is partially speculation yet in this the Huawei announcements in 2019 give validity to my train of thought, Now add to that the media rollover I discussed a week or two ago and you see a much larger stage and the promise that Saudi Arabia made on having more than oil as a form of income is now coming to pass with a rollout that could be ready long before that deadline hits in 2030, there is a stage that should see a larger readiness in 2025, long before the US has anywhere near that level of 5G completion. In May of this year we were given “All of the major U.S. wireless carriers say they have nationwide 5G service, but industry analysts say that service is largely indistinguishable from 4G LTE service.” This implies that the Statista numbers we saw last year remains accurate for at least two more years, implying that the Saudi 5G is well over 700% faster than anything the US has and that is just embarrassing. So when we see Telecom and defence falling away from the west, how much more losses do we need to see before someone realises that we are cutting ourselves. Morality is nice but the hungry need food and they do not care how they get it. A stage where the middle east becomes the tech centre is weird, completely unexpected and whilst we see stories on Silicon Valley, I wonder if they have anything left? When the middle east is driving tech innovation the west becomes a mere iterator trying to keep up. I personally see it as the result of concept selling, it is all good and nice but the customer wants a product, it needs to get working and as we see hype after hype on AI all whilst it is merely machine learning and deeper learning, we need to consider how long this can continue until the stage implodes on itself? 

So where is the grass greener? On the other fellows yard! (Billy Jones, 1924)

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Speculative reasoning

It is a stage we all entertain, OK, entertaining not the greatest word here, yet the stage is smitten with ‘What if’, ‘How could’ and ‘Who is’, it is an approach to critical thinking, postulating and no matter how academic we tend to make it, it remains speculation. So as CNBC gives us (at https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/30/weapons-proliferation-risk-in-afghanistan-very-worrying-saudi-prince-turki.html) the article ‘Saudi Arabia’s former intel chief calls weapons proliferation risk in Afghanistan very worrying as terror threat grows’ the engine starts rolling. The first thing I did was take another look at the map. No matter how that corridor runs, it takes Iran to make it work. Yes, there is a one party of Pakistan, yet Pakistan fear to be taken out of nearly every international equation and siding with the Taliban sets them up to that stage. They’ll possibly still help in other ways, but Pakistan needs Saudi Arabia a lot more than the Taliban and the Taliban does not have any financial means to make it work. So we are speculatively set to the stage of Iran. So even as we accept “sparking fear in Saudi Arabia about the enduring threat of ISIS and Al Qaeda and where and with whom the equipment might end up”, ISIS and Al Qaeda still need a stage to operate on and the fear is not wrong, but it does require a path to Saudi Arabian borders and I see this as as a setting that requires Iran. 

We might take ‘solace’ from “The President also vowed to issue another retaliatory strike against the terrorists responsible for Thursday’s suicide bombing that killed 13 U.S. service members and more than 110 Afghans.” Yet in this the larger element is missed. You see the Taliban took over Afghanistan in less than 10 days, they got billions in hardware against an army that was well over 500% larger. In all this Al Qaeda could not operate unseen and there is a larger stage where someone is feeding Al Qaeda information and my speculative view is that the Taliban and Al Qaeda are in bed together, to what degree remains to be seen, but there is no way that Al Qaeda can avoid all parties by themselves. 

The larger problem is “NATO has been clear that it expected the Taliban to keep its “commitment” that it will not allow Afghanistan to become a haven for terrorists, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told CNBC in a recent interview, but it’s still unclear if the Taliban is capable of managing the possible contagion, or if the most recent attack in Kabul could embolden individuals or terror groups around the wider region” This implies that NATO is either dumb or clueless, optionally both. The Taliban will only keep commitments that serves them and that gives both ISIS and Al Qaeda a lot of manoeuvring space. And the leeway we see with ‘it’s still unclear if the Taliban is capable of managing the possible contagion’ I do not believe that is the right approach. The Taliban had a little over 10 years to set up their own network and I personally believe that it is in place and they now have an arms division that makes it more powerful than several middle easters nations, they could overrun Bahrain in a day and Oman within 4 days and that is a larger problem. Yes, I suddenly made an ‘error’ and mentioned the Taliban and not Al Qaeda, but I wonder how far they are in bed together, more importantly India Today told us yesterday ‘A pledge binds al-Qaeda to Taliban. Why is it a worry for Pakistan?’ I believe it to be more than a pledge. It is a personal view, but I think that the Taliban made long term arrangements and that is a problem, it is time for NATO and the media to wake up.

It speculatively puts the pressure in Saudi Arabia in too large a stage and that suits Iran just fine. So as I see it Iran is happy to help whomever goes for Saudi Arabia and that is the danger we all face, because if this escalates oil goes back to $120 a barrel, oil deliveries from the middle east will trickle down to a mere 7% and that is merely the starter in all this and all NATO players know this to be true. 

There is one part I disagree with. We see “Nevertheless, while global confidence in American leadership may have been shaken, Al-Faisal said the episode didn’t necessarily mean the end of American supremacy globally: “I think it’s still too early to judge whether America is in a watershed moment””, we all know that American supremacy is past the end, Afghanistan and how the US army tucked tail and ran is merely a symptom. Their failure in diversity, polarisation of its population, greed driven players that take chunks out of the US economy and the list goes on, one element could be fought, they face at least half a dozen of them and a few of them at the same time. Their weapon sales, even those to legitimate governments are stopped and pretty much handed to China (some to Russia as well), a stage that diminishes their revenue and they are not replacing it, they are merely handing it over. So for the most I share the fears that Prince Turki Al-Faisal is voicing here and the fact that other players are not anywhere near this is funny on a few levels. As I personally (and speculatively) see it, whomever (read: stakeholders) is mulling the view that Saudi Arabia is under attack, they are doing an excellent job, but the fallout will hit us all and then we need to ask the media, each of them, who stopped a story of a direct attack on Saudi Arabia (Houthi attacks) that included civilian targets. For TV the excuse of ‘no time’ can hold water, on the internet where the space is, where there is an abundance of space. Time and people, there it does not hold water. I think that there is one side that Prince Turki Al-Faisal was not contemplating (or he is and he isn’t talking about it). Saudi Arabia has a lot more enemies than they are aware of and they are all enabling Iran which is a concern, especially if any evidence is found that Iran is enabling a larger scenario that includes Al Qaeda. So even if you do not care about Saudi Arabia, which is understandable when you do not live there. Where do you think Al Qaeda goes next? You are all so against fossil fuels, which is fine, but when it falls away and the cost of living goes up by 75%, how will you feel then? Did you think that far ahead?

I accept and understand that my thinking is speculative, things could evolve differently but in chess we see moves ahead, we might not be able to set the string of moves made, but in the end one of the pieces will move exactly as predicted and the more moves are correctly seen the better the strategy. In all this it is time to stop beating about the bush and as the expression goes, call a spade a spade. Oh and if that is not possible (which might be true) it shows that the US is failing in yet another stage and in that one they are dragging NATO down with them.

Enjoy the weekend and consider that some time soon when fuel goes from $3.181 to $5.566 how will you afford any kind of lifestyle? And that is before the heating bill arrives and mst to the US (Canada and the UK too) will move into Winter, so consider that part too.

Have a great weekend.

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Blaming the wrong party

Yup, we’ve all done that. The blame game is notorious in two aspects. The first is the party blamed, the second is the reason for blaming. So it is not just on how blame is designed, it is the intended and actual party of blaming the comes to mind. We tend to get both wrong when it is an emotional setting. There is one elements that we tend to forget, detachment is the drive that tends to set the matters of the mind straight. So I went through all the stages of the blame game when I saw ‘World’s richest urged to do more to keep millions from starving’ in Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/world-richest-millions-starving-wfp-200918090724645.html). In this:

  1. Why is that up to the world’s richest?
  2. When millions are starving, why are individuals called upon, why are governments flaccid?
  3. Who created this situation in the first place?

These three elements are important. Because the article gives us “He cited the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) where violence has increased and instability has already forced 15.5 million people near starvation. He also said a lack of funding has forced cutbacks in assistance to feed people in war-ravaged Yemen”, with the additional quote ““Worldwide, there are over 2,000 billionaires with a net worth of $8 trillion,” the former South Carolina governor said, noting reports that some of the wealthiest Americans have made “billions upon billions” during the pandemic

So here is where the blame game comes into effect. As I personally see it, David Beasley has his heart in the right place, but not his brain. In the first, governments have been playing credit card jockey for well over a decade, this is the result. In the second, places like Yemen are in a stage of committed non-action by both NATO and commonwealth forces. They simply didn’t care and for close to 5 years nothing happened and this is the result. In the third, it was essential for tax laws to be overhauled for well over a decade in the US, Japan and EU nations, none of that happened. I offered an optional solution in 1998, yet is was thrown out, remarks like ‘too complex’ and ‘hindrance of free trading’, well these things come at a price. In the setting of “some of the wealthiest Americans have made “billions upon billions” during the pandemic” we see a cheap shot at Jeff Bezos and a few others. Now, I have no real interest in Jeff, but he (his company) made that revenue fair and square. If the blame game parties had acted over the last 10 years, the situation might not be as dire as it is now. We seem to forget that part.

In case of Jeff, there might be plenty to blame him for, but this is not one of these things, this is not the station to make a reference to Jeff Bezos and his Amazon, but to the governments and their greed driven short sightedness.

This is the price of capitalism, this is the consequence of free trading. Everything has a price and now that you are seeing the consequences, you do not get to be the blamer, you all went along with the setting for far too long and most governments set the station of revenue and the lack of options for well over the next decade is the consequence of choices made between 1998 and 2020. And in all this, it might blow over, you see, the media gives us again and again “a potential “hunger pandemic”” the media has been giving us ‘potential’ in Yemen, so when will it actually happen? 

Fair question is it not?

We need to set the record straight, we need to demand that our governments ACT, that they adjust tax laws the way they should have been from the start, but every time dome politicians will oppose, as such set these opposes in the limelight, let them explain it. Let’s not blame the people who merely used the system handed to them.  The system that we all voted into the place it is and we need to ac sept that we are all to blame by letting the elected people continue the way they did.

That is all before we get to Mark Lowcock some UN under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, who gives us “who have a particular responsibility, which they have discharged in recent years – have so far given nothing”, on one side he is not completely wrong, yet n the other side, the acts and hindrances by Houthi forces as well as the support given to the Houthi forces by Iran are left out of the equation, are they not? So while we are given “Continuing to hold back money from the humanitarian response now will be a death sentence for many families”, all whilst he remains silent on the acts of the Houthi forces intervening is just a big no-no. The blame game is taking a serous turn towards the people who might be partially blamed, whilst the parties who need to be fully blamed are left out of the equation. So is this how we are given the truth? Partial truths baked in larger non-truths and all whilst we see the pictures of those in need, but not the pictures of those who were actually responsible for the mess we are given nowadays. It is so nice to blame a person like Jeff Bezos, all whilst his company was able to provide to a little over 800 million in lockdown for months. Yup, it got him a few thousand million extra, but is that his fault? He merely supplied towards an outstanding demand, that is how capitalism works and he got to keep a lot of it because the laws of taxation allowed him to do that. 

There is of course the station where some very rich people are not as innocent, but are they guilty? Guilty of what? They became rich as they had the clever accountants who used the laws of taxation to the maximum, is that the fault of the wealthy, the accountant, or is this mess the fault of governments not overhauling the laws of taxation? An overhaul that had creamy be needed in 2 decades. And the lack of humanitarian acts, is that because that there is no-one to hand out humanitarian aid, or is that because the governments who did that are so deep in debt that they no longer have the ability to do that, which gets us to the laws of taxation again.

Well over a dozen governments have painted themselves into corners and we end up blaming the paint for not being dry, how does that make any kind of sense? We can blame all we like, but in the end we merely did this ourselves by elating the people who set the stage by doing almost nothing, that is the stage we need to look at and in this we need to realise that this is not a nanny state verdict, this is the stage of non-accountability and that is the part we forgot about. 

 

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Weapons on special

If there is one place where the Status Quo would be ensured, it would be the arms industry. It is as polarised as anything and some long term ‘friendships’ go back decades. So when I see that Egypt is making waves towards the SU-35 (instead of the F-35), the first two will arrive shortly, ahead of about 2 dozen planes compromising of $2 billion in revenue. When we add Turkey who already had moved towards the S-400 missile solution, whilst at the same time pushing for the Russian SU-35 as well. So as Russian hardware is moving towards Turkey, Egypt and India, we see a much larger shift in the military hardware department. 

Then there is the UAE where the planes are not merely bought, the UAE is now vying for a building contract, and with that in mind, there is every chance that Saudi Arabia will also get a push into the Rusian hardware environment. Algeria is stated to be on that ship already, yet the issue now is not that the Russian fleet is finding new considerations, it is that as Russia makes headway all over the Middle East, America is taken off the field as consideration, so when people clap themselves on the back on how arms were taken away from middle eastern players, a toxic non option, we see that business partners switch out and US congress might pat themselves on the back on how they prevented weapons to be gained in the middle east, whilst in principle the US was taken out of the Middle Eastern consideration.

In an age where the US cannot afford any opposition as they need to deal with $23 trillion in debt, they merely ended up losing $15 billion in revenue, that has to bite and that is only at this point, if there is a  larger contingency towards alternatives there is every chance that Russian hardware will gain middle eastern footing to a much larger degree. 

When did the world sign up for that?

Well it did when it started to paint the issues through the media ‘UK arms sales to Saudi Arabia unlawful, court of appeal declares’, or perhaps all that Campaign Against Arms Trade ideology in an age where if one does not supply, the other side will, you did think that through, did you?

It was like watching two teachers and two nana’s holding up a sign, making the statement that Saudi Arabia was naughty and we should not deal with them, well do not worry, for every arms dealer in the UK there are close to a dozen not connected to UK revenue. So the term  #StopArmingSaudi was a good way to advertise towards places like Russia that they could get these customers if they were interested, and they were. As I see it, there was a gap of £4.7 billion in hardware needs that Russia could satisfy, as well as any other needs, because when they become the trusted deliverer of hardware they also get all kinds of other deals, deals that the UK needed and the UK dies not get to cry foul at that point, they merely get to point at the CAAT and state “This is what you got us“, and so far so good for Rusia, is it not? 

Even as we see places like Defense News give us ‘Russia’s S-400: An offer US partners should refuse‘, we need to see behind the deals and see the change of weaponry to a much larger degree. so as we are told ‘the Trump administration wisely decided July 17 to remove Turkey from the F-35 fighter program‘, the truth of the matter is that the entire F-35 program was oversold and Russia is countering it all by also offering the SU-35 and in some cases the SU-57 stealth fighter. so whilst some rely on “If Riyadh adds insult to injury and procures the S-400, it could represent a tipping point in the relationship with Washington — especially on Capitol Hill“, the truth is that the Hill as well as a few other players have injured themselves in billions, the oldest issue was always a given, Saudi has no intentions to attack Nato grounds, we knew that and we now have the same situation but without the friendship and without the revenue, it was not that simple, was it?

So whilst the White House notices “the F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities” we see another matter, we see Egypt, Algeria, UAE, India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all selecting a Russian solution to national defense. that is only 6, there are currently 4 other players all ready to select Russian hardware. All whilst the media gives us ‘The Pentagon is battling the clock to fix serious, unreported F-35 problems‘, ‘Supersonic speeds could cause big problems for the F-35′s stealth coating‘ and those are merely in June, the F-35 has a few additional problems, even as the plane has been on the designer table since 2006 whilst there was a sample flying, it seems that there are setback upon setback and that merely stokes Russian fires. In all this Politico gave it in 2015 “By 2014, the program was “$163 billion over budget [and] seven years behind schedule”“, yet that is something to be proud off. 

It is in this environment that we find weapons on special, well perhaps ‘special’ is the wrong phrase to use, they are up for grass from other delivery agents and payment is often a larger debatable issue, especially if a new hardware solution provider gets to make an entrance into other places, places he was not greeted into but that is another matter, it seems that the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant will optionally send a Fortnum & Mason Christmas basket to the manager of CAAT, it’s the least that they can do (and I just want to see those CAAT faces when they get one).

 

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