Tag Archives: China

The syrup of some

Deutsche Welle gave me a view, it is a optional view and I am using optional because I know much too little about this. The story (at https://www.dw.com/en/why-uaes-opec-exit-is-a-blow-to-saudi-arabia/a-76975354) gives us ‘Why UAE’s OPEC exit is a blow to Saudi Arabia’ it feels different from other views stating that the break up of OPEC is a win for President Trump, which is another view to have. But here we see “The United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC to pump more oil on its own terms. The break strips Saudi Arabia of a key partner and adds to growing uncertainty over the cartel’s future.” Yes, the UAE could pump more, but I don’t think it will lead to the uncertainty of the oil cartel (named Open and Opec+) You see, this large blip on all our radars will come with other settings. It will give the gulf states a claim for Iranian oil (repair costs) and that could be sold directly to China and Europe, they will exclude the United States as it is the cause of all this mess. At which point others will reject offers from Brent oil as it is American oil and there is no telling how deep the rejection goes and the weird part is that this might open up European talks with Iran as it reimburses damages to the gulf states (namely: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq) it is not the win Iran was looking for, but it is a win as they can make a case that the United States lost. Will it go that way? Time will tell.

It all reminded me towards an old feud (1985) where a colleague accused me from hoarding the ‘Rinse Appelstroop’ on my sandwich, all whilst the sandwich can only contain a mere part of the entire tub. So when we see “For years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has clashed with Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s most powerful member, over these quotas. The UAE has invested heavily to expand its oil industry and grow its market share, but OPEC limits have repeatedly held it back.” And it reminded me of the feud my co worker gave me over the syrup, almost like oil. I have no idea on where it is all set in the oil industry, but the idea to give into America is nothing less than a joke. They claimed that they have all the oil they need, so why would they need some handhold over oil? The one commercial thing I do know is that as the offer of oil increases the price goes down, as such the Middle East needs to take care of how they deal with this, because oil even as a commodity has a lifespan, once you get to the bottom of the barrel, the amount of oil you can still produce come close to that number shaped like an ‘O’ (hint: it is zero). 

So whilst I get that they all have needs, the idea that there might be an imbalanced amount towards one country is dangerous, but I get it, the UAE must do what is best for the UAE, Saudi Arabia must do what what is best for Saudi Arabia. But underneath all that we see “The UAE currently produces roughly 3.2 to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) under quotas but holds spare capacity of nearly 4.8 million bpd, Reuters news agency reported. Plans call for a hike in output toward 5 million bpd by next year.” And no one is looking at the amounts that might still be available for drilling. So what happens when that finishes? Everyone claps to attention but there is no clear vision for the future. And all the ‘influencers’ giving us the YouTube version of what comes tomorrow better find a good news source, because no one has an answer toward the ‘what now’ equation when the oils run out. 

So whilst we are getting “OPEC has already been under strain from repeated quota breaches by members such as Iraq and Nigeria, and from Russia’s inconsistent compliance within OPEC+. The UAE’s departure adds to that sense of fragmentation. In his analysis for Capital Economics,  Oxley warned that, in the medium term, if other producers with spare capacity “see the UAE successfully gaining flexibility and market share” outside OPEC, “others may follow.”” I understand that point of view, but I don’t think I can agree. The bully tactics of the United States will also give strength to Saudi Arabia as they might want to get issues resolved through Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Gabon and the Congo. There is definitely data that OPEC will be slightly weaker, but the oil that is gained in output will most likely go to China and the setting as of 9 April 2026, the UAE has intercepted and destroyed 537 ballistic missiles, 2,256 drone attacks and 26 cruise missiles fired from Iran, and that is mostly due to the acts of the United States. It is hard to hold them accountable as Iran attacked with the missiles, as such it is on Iran and as some state over 90% were allegedly aimed on civilian targets, as such the UAE demands reparations and so they should, but after that, should oil still be delivered to the instigator of these attacks? I don’t think it is that clear cut even as some state that Iran’s nuclear options were ludicrously limited (I don’t believe they were non-existent). So whilst the UAE could benefit from their withdrawal from OPEC, I see that the weak response from the gulf states towards the UAE is partially to blame for this. 

The conversation had some additional things (at https://theconversation.com/the-uae-is-leaving-the-opec-oil-cartel-what-could-that-mean-for-oil-prices-281734) here we see ‘The UAE is leaving the OPEC oil cartel. What could that mean for oil prices?’, we see here “the UAE is one of the world’s top ten oil producers. The country also has the capacity to increase its output by about one million barrels per day”, which amounts to 6 million barrels a week (one day of rest) and that gives us at least and additional half a billion dollars a week, something the UAE can likely use, especially if it goes towards a solution avoiding the Strait of Hormuz which I wrote about in ‘Sinking a dilemma’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/02/01/sinking-a-dilemma/) I have no idea if that is the path the UAE will sail, but that makes sense, the Strait and the issues with Iran are massively out of play and it also helps with the other gulf states as they (for a fee) use that solution and that is all before the massive attention the harbours of Abu Dhabi and Dubai will enjoy with all these loaded skippers who can now avoid Iranian waters. I only see upsides here, but that channel will require a serious amount cash, there is no doubt about that and it is not merely now, whenever Iran throws a tantrum, the strait becomes the bottleneck for all gulf states. Better to remove that problem completely.

So whilst we are given “OPEC’s influence on the oil price depends on coordinated changes in production. By agreeing to collectively limit, or to expand, the supply of oil in the market, OPEC can manipulate the price to meet its objectives. The UAE alone is the world’s eighth-largest oil producer, and accounts for about 4% of the world’s oil production.” As such I might imagine that the UAE has an issue with the imposed limits and that is before we consider if Das Island is under limits as well. As such it makes sense that the UAE ight want to leave OPEC, but let it be clear, Iran forced this on the rest of OPEC and as such their desperation will also amount to the wrath that these members have as their grip on maximized profits wane. 

Merely a small view on the setting and I get that not everyone agrees, not everyone is charmed by Appelstroop (a Dutch product). Have a great day.

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The bad news

That is what was going through my mind the day before yesterday and yesterday I saw something by Al Jazeera who illustrates it to you in a more profound way. They ‘quoted’ “Iran says US no longer in position to ’dictate’ policy to other nations

I don’t give in to the setting to Iran on anything because they are regarded as utterly evil by me, but as I see it, this one they got right. You see, the United States is as far as I see it the United States is insolvent. All other parties are so ready to debate the fine ‘tactics’ of what is insolvent. But the setting is now that the United States is a liability of 47.1 trillion dollars (according to some), their debt has now surpassed to 38 trillion and if the first set of numbers is correct, the interest is will in 2026 surpass $1,500,000,000,000 and that is a whole range of zero’s. To understand how I got to be this clever (the Dutch singer Herman Brood disagrees because he told me that I would never be clever). I wrote the story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2014/08/26/about-america-chapter-11/) ‘About America, chapter 11’, I wrote it on August 26th 2014. You think that this was too early, but at that point the debt had surpassed 18 trillion then and there was no exit strategy, there still isn’t one, but the debt has more than doubled and the IRS allegedly collected approximately $5.23 trillion, that implies that a third is spend on interest and in that setting President Trump wants to spend a trillion more in defense spending? You have got to be kidding. And whilst we are on the Trump discussion. He pissed of whatever ally he had and they will all let him drown with all his debt. So, he is playing nice with the Middle East and the members of the Gulf States that have cash. I also stated that the AI court cases will increase and I was right “As of April 2026, AI-related court cases are rapidly increasing, focusing on two main areas: AI misuse in legal filings (hallucinated case law) and intellectual property disputes over AI training data.” And I have seen first hand that we have only seen the tip of the iceberg considering “intellectual property disputes over AI training data” and these disgruntled parties are international and those not having some agreement in place will get their payday and their golden checks all whilst they come out of the coffers of the United States, leaving the United States more destitute than ever before. 

So in this case Iran might be correct, the days that the United States is “in position to ’dictate’ policy to other nations” are over. They might do so, for a few weeks, but when the larger bills come calling, we will see a different America and at that point I fear for the well being of my Canadian brothers (sisters too), because whatever Canada has, the United States will need and they will blame on the world their own inability to keep their spending habits in order. As I see it, the only path for the Commonwealth is a path that partners with China and Europe to create one big block (not the cheesy kind) but this is what I expect to happen, because as I see it, the intercepted Iranian tankers are heading wherever the US Navy wants to take them and according to some this is called ‘Western Piracy’, I am unsure what to call it, but it does give more weight to the insolvency issues I am seeing. And whilst some see this as the beginning of a Ponzi scheme of handling things (I am on that boat too), how long do you think that this will continue before all allies that the United States once had will see this as unacceptable and the new allies will almost immediately shy away and whilst the Media has a shrinking reliability, it merely fuels that Middle Eastern media in gaining a more prominent traction with the west. 

So feel free to disagree with what I write, but also take time to investigated the news as it is and compare it to what you know. As such I ended the article in 2014 with “I reckon soon enough we will get more and more long winded talks, but in the end no one is saying anything because those who will be making the speeches are at the heart of what went wrong and no one wants to hold on to that guilt when those left without their house ask them the question ‘where are my savings?’.

As such I wonder where are some of the saving left, because a Ponzi scheme approach will more easily use the funds of any bank and replace it with an IOU. 

So you all have a decent day, if possible a great day and I call on all Commonwealthians to consider the plight of the Canadians, because no matter how good they are doing, due to PM Mark Carney, they will soon have over 300,000,000 angry Americans looking for a way out and a better way than the hollow shell they are (allegedly) in at present.

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Battle lines

As per yesterday several things occupy my brain, even a new technology (which I will discuss at a later stage) today is about OpenAI and Microsoft. I was ‘alerted’ to this yesterday through through Seeking alpha. I think I heard it before that, but I ignored it. Seeking Alpha (at https://seekingalpha.com/news/4579947-microsoft-falls-as-openai-partnership-evolves-says-it-will-no-longer-pay-revenue-share) gives us ‘Microsoft in focus as OpenAI partnership evolves, says it will no longer pay revenue share’ and we are given “Microsoft (MSFT) shares rose fractionally on Monday as the tech giant and OpenAI (OPENAI) said their partnership has continued to evolve, and OpenAI’s license will become non-exclusive. “Today, we are announcing an amended agreement to simplify our partnership and the way we work together, grounded in flexibility, certainty and a focus on delivering the benefits of AI broadly,” Microsoft wrote in a statement on its website. “The greater predictability in the amended agreement strengthens our joint ability to build and operate AI platforms at scale while providing both companies the flexibility to pursue new opportunities.”” In my mind I hear “Someone has figured out that this setting is based on shallow settings, the reality is dawning on them”, so whilst we are given “As part of the altered agreement, Microsoft will remain OpenAI’s primary cloud partner, and OpenAI products will ship on Azure first. However, there is now a tweak that says if Microsoft “cannot and chooses not to support the necessary capabilities,” OpenAI can go elsewhere. Julian Lin, Investing Group Leader for Best Of Breed Growth Stocks, said the deal is actually a “net positive” for Microsoft, despite the share price reaction.” I personally believe that OpenAI might present a hardcore liability for Microsoft and they are seeking to insulate from that fallout. And it might be merely my feelings in this and that is fine, but when you see the Anthropic setting, the DeepSeek setting there are several other elements that are roaring is near ugly heard and that has to go somewhere, something has got to break and it seems the ‘staged’ setting of evolutionary contract agree ments, might be part of all that. In retrospect I have no idea how OpenAI and Musk will battle their settings (and I partially do not care either). But the elements are there and whilst we are all about OpenAI, this concept selling setting rubs me the wrong way. So whilst we ‘might’ see ‘OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO’, all whilst some say “do you guys even use ChatGPT/OpenAI anymore? I find myself preferring Claude/Gemini to be honest”, I take a different turn, I don’t use any of them. Basically because they are all fake AI. Real AI is about a decade away, if not 2 decades. I might die before real AI is released, so I kinda do not care.

ComputerWorld, only today (a mere few hours ago) gave us (at https://www.computerworld.com/article/4163971/microsoft-openai-change-contract-terms-again.html) ‘Microsoft, OpenAI change contract terms–again’ starts with “When the two firms announced a revised agreement on Monday, it reinforced the need for enterprise IT executives to work with as many major AI players as possible, given the constantly changing landscape.” I do not disagree, but remember that Microsoft went all out about 5 years ago and whilst we saw all kinds of ‘total wreck approaches’ the ‘partnership’ went on and now that we see “the need for enterprise IT executives to work with as many major AI players as possible”, we might accept that, but we see no DeepSeek, do we? So whilst we see that Microsoft increased its stake and solidified its position as a major investor less than 6 months ago, these plans are now changing. So does Microsoft see something, or do they fear something? And then ComputerWorld gives us “One key component within earlier versions of the Microsoft-OpenAI deal was the change in the relationship if OpenAI ever achieved artificial general intelligence (AGI), a term that eludes a concrete definition but generally refers to AI that equals or exceeds human capabilities.” I find it funny because of all these definitions across the fake AI field. Do they really not see that it is about to fall apart? (Story to follow likely tomorrow). And when this war of the fakers is seen (OpenAI, Google, Anthropic) there is every chance that OpenAI ends up in last position (see another ‘winner’ chosen by Microsoft), but this war setting is almost real, but until there is a real revenue stream coming in, there is unlikely to be a real winner. So whilst ComputerWorld focusses on the market changes with “Analysts and consultants generally agreed that this altered agreement will reinforce, and should extend, the current enterprise IT trend of hedging bets by striking arrangements with a variety of AI providers, including the major hyperscalers. Beyond future-proofing enterprises’ AI efforts, some of those agreements are for practical issues, such as the need to work with global AI firms specializing in different languages that the enterprise needs.” And you already know where this goes next. So, when was the last time you saw this kinda bla bla settings in the last 45 years? I tend to go back to the early 90’s where they all tried to sign businesses up to concept selling, all whilst there was no revenue stream detectable. We see it now here. I get that analysts are not the most revenue sturdy people, but consultants need their revenue streams. It is their bread and butter. And what was that “for practical issues” about? You see ComputerWorld writes a good story and revenue is mentioned four times, three is shown next “In addition, the company’s role as a major investor in OpenAI is driving a different revenue relationship, it said: “Microsoft will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI. Revenue share payments from OpenAI to Microsoft continue through 2030, independent of OpenAI’s technology progress, at the same percentage but subject to a total cap. ”” interesting how salespeople are not that fuzzed about revenue. It is their income and bonus setting. So what was this really about?

Wouldn’t we like to know this? Just a few settings for todays stride in the coming week. And now I need to contemplate what I next write about the bad news, or the new technology. My conundrum  for the last 4 hours of the day.

Have a great one today.

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Tomorrow came today

That is the setting and it is given to us by the Khaleej Times. There are two articles, the first one (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/tech/carry-less-do-more-the-huawei-matepad-mini-advantage) gives us ‘Carry less, do more: The HUAWEI MatePad mini advantage’ it shows us the new Huawei setting, all in Harmony Next, so while we might consider “The 8.8-inch OLED PaperMatte display is considerably larger than any other ebook reader of this size and offers incredibly vibrant colours. Saying this is the best ebook reader ever is not a hyperbolic statement. While that alone makes the tablet worth having, it is only the tip of what the MatePad Mini has to offer.” It is not the real power that comes from the mindset of the consumer. You see I’m what some call a brand bitch. I like my Sony TV (and my playstation more) I like my Apple devices (except that Apple phone thingamajig) and I love my Android phone. We are what we embrace and now Huawei in a world where the United States claim that China is evil we are given the new settings. You see, that anti China voice is kinda nice, but as the confidence in the United States is waning with 6 billion people, that anti-China rhetoric becomes stale and lacks credibility. And now Huawei who awaited their time is voicing into the Middle East that there is an non-United States alternative. And that comes with a few additional loopholes.

So whist we are given “Beyond readability, the MatePad Mini supports a peak brightness of 1800 nits, a 120 Hz refresh rate, and a P3 wide colour gamut for rich, lifelike visuals. Easily pocketable and featuring a vibrant, high-resolution, paper-like display, the MatePad Mini is a strong alternative to traditional eBook readers.”as well as “Powering all of this is a 6400 mAh battery, capable of delivering up to 9.5 hours of usage under dynamic conditions, and it can be filled up from zero in just 60 minutes using Turbo mode. The HUAWEI MatePad Mini is compact enough to carry anywhere, yet powerful enough to handle everything from reading to serious productivity and creative work.” And that is beyond the additional apps that give is a rather large function area. This is the first time that Apple faces a competitor larger then they are, more of more and all at a reduced price. So whilst I am Apple minded for my iPad, Huawei now had an alternative and it is loaded with functionality. Is it enough? I am not certain, but as the anti-United States feeling emerge (due to the current administration) and the feeling of resentment grows, Huawei now has a clear path into Europe and people are fed up with the anti China sentiment. Especially as it lacked evidence for the longest times and now that the United States is told to stay in its place. The sentiment for American corporations grow too and there are two settings that fuel this.

The second setting is given to us (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/tech/ai-without-the-hype-the-new-honor-600-redefines-the-smartest-smartphone-experience) where we see ‘AI without the hype: The new HONOR 600 redefines the smartest smartphone experience’ and that is the missing element ‘without the hype’ it redefines the setting of DML and ML, because that is the setting of these Fake AI worlds. Fake AI is hyped by the United States and some resent it (like me) because it is stupid. DML and ML are great tools and they come with LLM settings, which is also a great tool but it is no AI, so as we are given this, we are more easily in acceptance of this. So whilst we see “In a market flooded with overpromised AI features, the HONOR 600 stands apart, pairing a stunning 200MP camera, intuitive AI tools, and marathon battery life into a device that feels as premium as it performs” we see a delivery well beyond any phone out there today the 200MP camera. So whilst we are given “I’ve spent a little time with the new HONOR 600 these last few days, and from the moment I picked it up, it felt like I was holding something far more premium than its category suggests. The design immediately stands out. It’s slim, sleek, and beautifully balanced in the hand. The finish of our test mule in the “Golden White” colourway (there are two other colours available: Black and Orange) catches the light in a subtle but striking way, and the overall build feels refined without being flashy. It’s the kind of phone you instinctively want to show off, not because it’s loud, but because it’s quietly elegant.” We see the next device in HarmonyOS and it will be a threat to Android and iOS. Their 200 MP made it so and whilst we see the stages where some will debate (the ‘but this’ and ‘but that’ people) we see a setting that is water-mouthing for people and influencers alike (influencers are considered to be non-people). 

What we have is the setting for the new stages. We see that Huawei is more readily excepted and that comes with the optional Huawei data centers and that is where the United States will truly be shown the door. And as Huawei gains traction vie the Middle East, there is every indication that the larger stages in Bangladesh, India and Indonesia will embrace that setting as these two places are over half a billion people and Huawei will gain traction to over 2 billion people in this year alone. That is the setting everyone missed and that is what is likely propping to happen. And this is the stage that the United States fears, because their ‘big beautiful whatever’ depends on an audience and one third of the global stage when somewhere else. I reckon that Germany is the first to gain Huawei powers in the EU, followed by some of the other members. My money is on the Scandinavian members driven by Denmark (because of Greenland) and Norway (because of Microsoft) and that will merely be more and more movement towards China. And whilst some will debate the bad things that is China. You forget about the 8 billion people, they are driven by consumerism and quality stuff and Huawei is showing quality and as I see it, it is the first time they are outdoing Apple and when you consider the Huawei Matebook fold. So when the new applications hit these solutions and when (perhaps they already are) we see interaction between the three you know that Apple is outdone and Google will be in a tough spot. It was never their ambition to be in this situation but some idiot in the American administration made China develop their own OS, because Android was no longer available to them, who was that again?

So we now get a new setting and I reckon it will come to blows in 2027, even as Huawei is already ready in 2026. It is a stage that is now up for grabs and when these 4 factors Tablet, phone, laptop and data center becomes available, the United States will be pricing itself out of all the above. So we are likely to see Gulf States, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Europe all switching and whilst the United States sees its influence shrinking from 6.5 to 6.2 to 4.9 to 4.5 to a 4.1 to a 3.8 billion audience panic will hit because that implies that there is an expected grow in Huawei data centers and even as it might not all go for a Huawei data center, the premise that it all remains with America data centers is absolutely ludicrous. So whilst the United States depletes its weapons even further on Iranian soil, it is merely fueling it disgust in the rest of the global population. A setting that was almost clear from the start. So where do you think this audience go when it is reduced to a mere 4.1 billion? You might think that it is clear, but the Muslim population is almost 2 billion, so do you thin that Iran will entice them to stay? Or will they merely fuel the drive towards Huawei?

Have a great day this day.

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Accusation without evidence

That is the path I saw today on the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpqxgxx9nrqo), now hear me out. Even as we are being told ‘White House memo claims mass AI theft by Chinese firms’ we have to acknowledge that it comes from that same place that gave us that “‘someone’ claimed “$18 trillion” in new investments”, “prices are down” and “Ukraine for starting the war with Russia, suggesting they should have surrendered territory to avoid it” as such I am willing to disbelief this. Also China has DeepSeek and it does so (it’s speculations) at a fraction of the cost.

And whilst we are getting “The White House has said it will work more closely with US artificial intelligence (AI) firms to combat “industrial-scale campaigns” by foreign actors to steal advances in the technology. Michael Kratsios, Director of Science and Technology Policy, wrote in an internal memo that the administration had new information indicating “foreign entities, principally based in China” were exploiting American firms.” My mind goes not different directions. The first being:

My mind is racing towards a different setting. You see, OpenAI and its ‘co-conspirators’ are not delivering on the premise that gave too many people well over half a trillion dollars want to see return on investment and none is coming and now (not unlike the concept sellers in the 90’s) they need a blamable party. So what is easier than to blame China? Now, I am not saying that China is innocent, but in all this one might need evidence to make a case and none of it seems to be coming. As such we are given ““foreign entities, principally based in China” were exploiting American firms. Through a process called “distilling”, such firms are essentially copying AI technology developed by US companies, he said.” OK, I’ll bite, so where is the evidence? Why, if this distilling is a problem are these outputs not better protected, so there is no ‘distilling’? Simple question, perhaps when Oracle was needed, the cheapskates decided to rely on Azure? I have no idea, I am merely offering options as the evidence is clearly lacking. 

So whilst the article ens with “While Kratsios did not name any foreign entities, leading AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have said they are dealing with such distillation activity.” I reckon that the distillation culprits like House Spirits Distillery and Angostura Distillery were made exempt? 

You think that I am making a funny and I was, but this has been going on for months and these so called high priced (fake) AI corporations have been absent in their cyber security? How does this distilling happen? All things missing from the BBC article and are unlikely on the mind of the White House as the article seems to imply it comes from the very beginning where we saw “it will work more closely with US artificial intelligence (AI) firms to combat “industrial-scale campaigns” by foreign actors to steal advances in the technology” you see, the first part would be ‘How did they achieve this?’ Which we do not see and the state of cyber security we don’t see either, both seem rather obvious in that setting. 

So as I said China might not be innocent, but in that same setting we see that the United States and their (fake) AI firms are apparently clueless. Don’t take my word for it, just look at the scraps on this table and see where the crumbs aren’t dealt with and I see no part in all this that shouts ‘China is guilty’ that would require actual evidence. So if that is seemingly is not required counter the idea of this AI scheme to be the part of a scam to wipe out trillions on the exchange, which might be the case, but the setting of ‘no evidence’ is apparently in effect and that goes both ways. As I see it, someone wants to see evidence of AI and whilst they invested billions, there is a greed driven setting that the profits all go to China as they stole the plans, but is that really so? Even distilled plans need refinement and the source data is missing. So, how would they proceed? The setting does not make complete sense to me. Any innovation requires a foundation, even DeepSeek would like to have one, or it is simply a sifting solution and the power remains with these innovative wannabe’s (sorry, a paraphrased term).

So have a great day and wonder why the accusation was made, because that setting is likely to be in dollar numbers and where is that money now? Have a great day.

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Bleeding on the spot

That is at times the setting, we tend to ignore it, we laugh, we giggle, and sometimes we cry. If it is your own body, you will likely panic. So as I saw Tom’s Hardware (at https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/cerebras-files-for-ipo-company-remains-unprofitable-despite-20x-revenue-growth) give us ‘Cerebras files for IPO — company remains unprofitable despite 20x revenue growth’ I tend to frown. There are settings with little profit (like the Big Mac for $1.95) which at 20 times still becomes a decent amount (all $6 of them), we get that other factors that remove profit margins, but when the setting becomes “Bleeding money at a rapid rate” it becomes a worry. You see, the business plan makes sense or is a hail Mary (not unlike the Macintosh Performa) this is an intentional setting I am giving, because that Hail Mary became the PowerMac and then the G4 and G5. These were the systems that put Apple on several maps and from there the big wins became visible. A Hail Mary that worked. But here we are given “Cerebras, the supplier of wafer-scale AI processors, has filed for an IPO for the second time after it cancelled such plans due to its ties with G42, an Abu Dhabi-based AI company backed by sovereign wealth fund Mubadala, last year. Financial results disclosed as part of the filing reveal that Cerebras appears to be one of the fastest-growing AI hardware companies right now. However, 86% of its revenue comes from two customers, and the company is bleeding money.” From this limited information I would gather that the business plan is highly likely flawed. And we are given that the 86% comes from just two customers (G42 and Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence, MBZUAI). Now I would go with the Business plan, but there might be reasons for this and the settings that AI processors give could still be a solution if these two clients put in the considerable work (no critique on the two trendsetters). As we see that “The remaining 14% of revenue is generated by a fragmented base of smaller enterprise, government, and cloud customers, but none contribute enough individually to reduce Cerebras’ heavy reliance on its top two clients. More recently, Cerebras inked agreements to supply its AI hardware to Amazon Web Services and OpenAI, which will diversify revenue streams for the company.” But the larger option is gaining traction. Now for the most we can ignore the fact that they are American (which is at present never a good selling point), but they  are also in Toronto and Bangalore. The issue is that they are no threat to Nvidia and they don’t need to be, the idea is that they could skim the market and take up traction pretty much anywhere. I reckon that they have done that, but there is the option that they could optionally feed data centers in China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, if that works and they could get the first one in these places, they are likely to gain several other corporations and locations for implementation. The reasoning I have is that there are several sounds from customers that they have a lack of processors, so are they tapped? It seems so as we see “Cerebras has a massive $24.6 billion backlog (including the $20 billion OpenAI deal), which provides strong demand visibility. The company expects to recognize approximately 15% of this revenue within the first 24 months through December 31, 2027, 43% during months 25 to 48, and the remainder thereafter. Still, Cerebras warns that converting this backlog into revenue depends on the manufacturing capacity of its partners, infrastructure deployment, and power availability.” It makes me wonder why the quote “Bleeding money at a rapid rate” was given. So as we see “Cerebras recorded a $363 million gain from a change in the fair value (and extinguishment) of a forward contract liability: the company had a financial obligation whose value was reduced, which allows it to book that reduction as income. If the value was not reduced, the company would be unprofitable. In fact, Cerebras’ operating losses totaled $145.9 million in 2025.” But even so, as I see it (with my lack of economy studies) thematic doesn’t seem to add up and my mind goes back to the business plan. It is my simplistic mind that goes with the setting that Cerebras either has a product that works or they have not. If they do, the client has to pay and there are no freebees in this market, you do that if the product is shoddy, and the salesperson either deals with the buyer correctly, or they don’t. It is my rather simplistic setting of customer service, “we have a product and we would love to have you as customer, yet, our product is not free”, it will rock your world (for a price) and within that setting (and the right business plan) Cerebras should do just fine. As such I don’t get the setting we see. So as we are also given “Cerebras postponed its IPO plans in 2024 after a national security review examined its ties with Abu Dhabi-based G42 amid concerns about potential foreign access to advanced AI processors. G42 is both a customer and investor of Cerebras, which controls a 1% stake in the company that it acquired for $40 million in 2021.” This is an issue as it involves 50% of their customer base and what is this “potential foreign access to advanced AI processors”? Is this another American setting (not unlike their stance towards Huawei)? You see China is sized at 1.413 billion, as such it is over 4 times the size of the USA, the United States can either play nice or go down with the ship they are sinking themselves. Cerebras could go towards the EU as well as India and partially fund the data centers there and get longer lasting revenue, but that is almost the only options that are there. This market is getting saturated and it is not a market that has time and options for prima donna’s, this is my simplistic view. So as the article ends with “Cerebras has not specified an official fundraising target in its IPO filing, but current market expectations point to a roughly $3 billion raise. This is significantly higher than earlier $1 billion plans, which reflect the company’s rapid revenue growth and the scale of its AI infrastructure ambitions.” It also signals that the ‘bleeding effect’ is a temporary setting, depending on how the IPO evolves. Yet as I see it, the IPO has a lot less chance of being successful as long as the “Bleeding money at a rapid rate” vision is in place. But as I see it, enlarging their customer base precedes the need for an IPO, because no I matter how good the IPO is, it is facing slaughter when the customer base is set to two. But as I stated, my lack of economy might be the ruling red herring here. 

And whilst I leave you with this article and a few hidden hints, I will go and look what happens to Cerebras before June, May it have a nice time.

Have an interesting day today (‘great’ is oversold too much, even by me).

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Whatever the BS indicates

So, I was looking at a few matters and some connect to yesterday’s setting. As such, this morning I was given by CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-losing-losing-losing-carney-trade-9.7171738) ‘Poilievre says Carney has been ‘losing, losing, losing’ on U.S. trade war’ and I personally call out this incorrect setting (calling it a lie is so crass) as I see it, PM Mark Carney has done whatever he can to make Canada less reliable on the United States, giving the country options and not to be set to the whim of a their own version of King George III and lets face it the one in the United States, looks nowhere near as good as Nigel Hawthorne (supporting evidence below).

We are given the additional “Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre launched a pointed attack on the Liberal government’s handling of the Canada-U.S. file Tuesday, saying the results so far have fallen well short of the mark and the prime minister is “losing” the trade war. Speaking to reporters after Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled his new trade advisory council to help with the U.S. dispute — a body that includes some big-name Conservatives — Poilievre lashed out, saying the Liberals ran on settling the issue at the last election but there has been no discernible progress to this point.” And in a stage where that less than appealing person in Washington, is calling Canada the 51st state, giving it tariffs that got well beyond what is acceptable (whilst giving Russia allegedly no tariffs) and whilst we see “Carney says there’s been a ‘rupture’ in Canada-U.S. relationship, while Poilievre wants to draw closer”, so does any real Canadian want to vote for Pierre Poilievre (also known as Peter Polivicious by some)?

So whilst we see this and whilst we were given yesterday ‘Trump says he does not want to extend ceasefire with Iran’ (source: Reuters), today we get ‘Trump says ceasefire extended as talks with Tehran in limbo’ (source: Al Jazeera) and this is a person Canada wants to get closer to? Then we get that a lot of Canadians are christians, so do you want to get close to a person who attacks the pope on humanitarian issues as well as “President Trump has been lobbing insults at Pope Leo XIV in response to his criticisms of the war in Iran and appeals for peace, marking an unusually pronounced rupture between the leaders of the world’s most powerful country and the world’s largest Christian denomination. But Leo criticized the Trump administration’s mass deportation efforts both before and after he was elected leader of the Catholic Church. He told reporters in November that the treatment of immigrants is “extremely disrespectful,” echoing the views of his predecessor, Pope Francis.” So do we (Commonwealthians) ever want to get close to this (so called) king? Or are we ready to steer the Commonwealth to safer waters? In that case, why would anyone ever consider the conservative PP or any of his arguments valid? OK, I will admit that the rental issues he raised last year were valid, but as I see it, no force in the Commonwealth gives rise to closer working with President Trump. 

And this is merely my view (also shared with many in the Commonwealth) and I could be wrong, but I do not think so. As such It is time to reflect on a few things that PM Mark Carney achieved over the last year (as I am not Canadian, I reserve the right to miss a few items).

And these items are merely of the last 15 months. Also he increased trade with China, revenue the country can really use and achieved a higher trade settings with the EU and NATO, optionally also increased trade with Australia and New Zealand. All options whatever the conservatives throw in to the mix would never achieve as they are most likely not equipped with the knowledge of Economy that the present Prime Minister has.

So feel free to agree or disagree, but whatever America throws at Canada (like: Meanwhile, the Americans are demanding Canada change dairy access rules and drop some protections for its cultural sector, among other demands) which is funny, because that is decided by Canada, not the United States. 

So you all have a great day and remember it is still yesterday in Vancouver.

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For a few Yuan more

So, yesterday I saw a MarketWatch article (at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-meaning-of-uae-reportedly-requesting-a-dollar-swap-line-6a40d630) where we see ‘The real meaning of UAE reportedly requesting a dollar swap line’, now don’t start running like a half baked cryotoboy to it’s mommy stating the world is ending (like we saw to weeks ago when some of them ran off to the airport), the byline gives us a clear “Economists believe the UAE is signaling it wants closer ties with allies, not a bailout” and I can agree with that. I have not seen seen any Emirati panic, or make bailout mentions. We are given “A report the United Arab Emirates requested a dollar swap line with the U.S. may be more a threat the Gulf nation could shift an alliance rather than a sign it’s about to run short of the American currency, observers said.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE central bank governor, Mohamed Balama,  requested a currency-swap line with the U.S. from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent while in Washington D.C. last week. The UAE is facing pressure from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though experts say its economy so far is strong enough to maintain a dollar peg.” It comes with the additional “Tim Ash, senior strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management, pointed out in a posting on X, that sovereigns do not request swap lines lightly. Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign relations agreed, also highlighting on X that he doesn’t believe UAE is in any emergency need of financial assistance, given it entered this conflict with huge holdings of U.S. Treasurys and significant forex reserves in excess of $250 billion. It’s important to note that the Emiratis have asked for a swap line and not a credit line.” And that is supported with graphics on ‘UAE forex reserves versus holdings of U.S. Treasurys, in billions of dollars.CFR’ and those numbers look good, even a non economist (like me) can see that the numbers of the UAE are good. Yet what we are also given is “Gave suggests, the UAE may be “sending a not-so-subtle message to the U.S., namely “leave the region and you will quickly be replaced by China.”

It might make sense and considering the damage that the United States Congress, a document produced on April 9th 2026, by Paul Kerr gives us “Iran’s nuclear program has for decades generated widespread concern that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons. According to past U.S. intelligence assessments, Tehran has the capacity to produce nuclear weapons at some point but has halted its nuclear weapons program and has not mastered all of the necessary technologies for building such weapons. The extent to which June 2025 and February 2026 Israeli and U.S. airstrikes affected Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons is unclear.” with the added “According to official U.S. assessments, Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003. This program’s goal, according to U.S. officials and the IAEA, was to develop an implosion-style nuclear weapon for Iran’s Shahab-3 ballistic missile. A 2025 public U.S. intelligence assessment stated that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon” and that the now-former Supreme Leader had “not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated on March 4, 2026, that the agency “never had information indicating that there was a structured systematic [Iranian] program to build or to construct a nuclear weapon.”

So, there was no real nuclear danger? And the Strait of Hormuz was open before this clambake started? It seems to me that the UAE (optionally with support of all other oil producing gulf nations) should give warning to not mess with their background, especially as it is roughly 7,000 miles away from Washington DC, as such no international waterways (connected) to the United States are in danger.

But in addition to the MarketWatch article, we see the Canadian DeepDive giving us (at https://thedeepdive.ca/uae-threatens-yuan-oil-trade-if-us-denies-dollar-lifeline-as-iran-war-drains-reserves/) ‘UAE Threatens Yuan Oil Trade if US Denies Dollar Lifeline as Iran War Drains Reserves’. The first part of opposition (by me) is that MarketWatch shows that the reserves are good. Basically DeepDive is not lying, reserves are seemingly being drained and that does not imply that the UAE reserves are in danger. But here we see “Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama brought the proposal to Federal Reserve officials and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington last week, the Journal reported. Abu Dhabi’s position, relayed through multiple officials: the war has strained its finances, dollar reserves could come under pressure, and if Washington does not provide a liquidity facility, the UAE may have little choice but to settle oil and gas trades in yuan or other non-dollar currencies. Emirati officials also told their US counterparts that Trump’s decision to attack Iran was what drew the country into the conflict to begin with. No formal application for a swap line has been submitted.” It is like the message Louis Gave, chief executive officer at Gavekal Research gave us, we merely get more information here. So like MarketWatch we see here “a bilateral currency swap with the Federal Reserve — would allow the UAE Central Bank to draw down dollars against dirhams at the prevailing exchange rate, effectively insuring against a hard-currency crunch without requiring emergency asset sales. 

The Fed currently holds standing arrangements of this kind with five central banks: the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank. Extending one to the UAE would mark a meaningful expansion of the Fed’s wartime financial commitments.” I am not enough of an economist to see the larger implications, but as I see it, President Trump started shitting in its economic backyard and now the people affected are saying (my of voicing it) “Stop this or we walk away from the US dollar in trade”, now you might think that I am overstating the ‘danger’ but consider that the US dollar is already under stress from a 39 trillion dollar debt (aka $39,000,000,000,000) and now when the Dollar trade offset is impacting trade other means of revenue would seemingly fall away, because it is never a simple setting (is it), and this would be the Home Run that China would love to see evolve. Do you really think this would be merely about oil? When oil starts, others will seek shelter and that is before others dump their $5 trillion (aka $5,000,000,000,000) in US treasury bonds. There have been noises that smaller amounts were ‘dismissed’ but the larger amounts are a worry for Wall Street, they are highly unlikely able to survive this pressure, as such the United States Administration better come up with a solution and quite fast. 

All this whilst Al Jazeera gives us ‘Iran war live: Uncertainty over talks, Trump insists deal to come ‘quickly’’ with the added “Iran says it has no plans to send negotiators to Pakistan for a new round of talks after the United States seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, President Donald Trump says US team, led by Vice President JD Vance, is on its way to Islamabad” So, one has no plans to send someone, whist the other states someone is on the way? How is that communicating? How is that any solution? That is the premise (given to us 14 minutes ago) that someone like China needs to dethrone the US dollar, so when China gives a solution in the next 24 hours, whilst President Trump starts commenting on his big beautiful solution for the world, the premise of the United States Dollar being removed from the oil trade becomes real. Do you really think that this is just about oil? Because this setting would require the better part of a decade to unwind. It is too early for me to say that the US dollar is out of this, but the other elements might make the pressures of the Dollar in the oil trade unmanageable. 

It is merely my point of view, no biggie. Have a great day, still 120 minutes until breakfast for me. I, hungry, all whilst it is lunchtime in Vancouver, what a bastards.

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The competition is moving

Yesterday (less than 24 hours ago) I took notice of an article in the South China Morning Post (at https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3350460/nvidias-jensen-huang-warns-huawei-chips-deepseek-ai-models-would-be-horrible-us) where we see ‘Nvidia’s Jensen Huang warns Huawei chips for DeepSeek AI models would be ‘horrible’ for US’, so we see everyones favourite boy-scout giving us that Huawei could be either a terrible setting of everyone (us) or it could be horrible for the United States (US), I don’t know about the first one, the second one the United States did to themselves. And the setting of overvaluation by the United States on fake AI, versus undervaluation of Chinese fake AI is considerable as the United States is giving value to what China sees as a mere 3% valuation. I am willing to go with “You had that coming” and in addition as I see it the Huawei MateBook Fold (2TB SSD / 32GB RAM) is an engineering marvel. 

It is the first product to be an actual threat to Apple’s iPad and that was long overdue. Don’t get me wrong, I have been an avid fan of the iPad and I had one since 2011, so you might say I was there almost at the start and it never let me down, 2 years ago I got the iPad Air and it is still doing its bit for me every day (almost every hour). That is true innovation and now the Huawei is surpassing it with the Huawei MateBook Fold, it makes us think that Microsoft is still in the water scuttling its own future. Huawei is that much ahead of the rest. And now Jensen gives us “What do you think happens when it is equipped with a chip running DeepSeek in the background? 

That is the reality of so called sitting on their asses and getting surpassed by all the western technology. Add to this 6G Huawei is researching with “70 GHz mmWave for short-range communication, aiming for speeds exceeding 10 Gbit/s and sub-millisecond latency” some say that US sanctions will prevent this, but Huawei is the innovator, nothing comes near this and the so called west, including Europe, Middle East, Asia and Australia (New Zealand too) have had enough of greed driven sanctions by the United States. Germany already went overboard (as stated by some) giving France and Italy enough settings to follow suit. So when Huawei gets to install its pilots in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the rest will almost be standing still, as the current setting is that their 5G is about 700% faster than anyone else (almost twice as fast as South Korea has) and that was almost 5 years ago (source: Statista) and I talked about that in one of my blog articles raising awareness for smart ware. So as I see it, the moment Huawei releases its combines tablet to the west, the United States is done and I reckon that Apple will lose a lot of customers, It will also be the point where Huawei will make its HarmonyOS NEXT (or HarmonyOS 5) to the larger collective in Europe and from that point the United States is no longer working at 41% (at the speed comparison Statista gave us) it will be reduced to a mere 23%-38% of whatever will be running in the Middle East, Europe and Asia. That is the setting and the DeepSeek chip is making it a much easier jump as the United States was honey coating the chains with (fake) AI and now Huawei is nearly at a point where they can state “We have AI too in all our Huawei models” and it comes at mere pennies to the dollar (compared all the other providers). As such Huawei was working in the background and the United States willing to strangle any press releases (a speculation by me) on the subject.

So whilst we are given “If “future AI models are optimised in a very different way than the American tech stack”, and as “AI diffuses out into the rest of the world” with Chinese standards and technology, China “will become superior to” the US, Huang said on the Dwarkesh Podcast on Wednesday. The conversation came ahead of the much-awaited launch of DeepSeek’s V4 foundation model, expected later this month. US news outlet The Information reported earlier this month that V4 would run on Huawei’s latest Ascend 950PR processor, while a separate report by Reuters last month suggested that the model had been trained on Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, which would be a violation of US export controls.” So whilst I have no idea how accurate the Reuters article is (never read it) I can surmise that the Products from the United States (like Apple) are unlikely to have anything to counter the Ascend 950PR processor, off course I am always happy to be proven wrong, but the setting I reported on in 2024 where the iMac has a mere 24GB RAM and 2TB drive, which should have been at least 64GB RAM and 4TB drive before 2025, is still in the old settings. 

Either that technology is unable or the people of Apple are sitting on their hands is nothing less of a joke, even if it is now possible to get it in Orange, Revell has given Apple that option for a mere €3 per model and Revell had that option for years (if not decades) so whilst we get the ‘innovation’ of colour, it is not, it is mere iteration and there are a few other settings were these innovators are sitting on their asses (optionally overdosing on viagra). Innovation is a game that is unrelenting and I have warned the larger audience of that for years, if not decades. 

Now the hard truths come calling and Huawei is the next innovation that is up for grabs and whilst Apple comes with the claim “Center Stage front camera with a new 18-megapixel square sensor, a 6.3-inch display with 120Hz ProMotion (available on the standard model for the first time), and the high-efficiency A19 chip.” It is not innovation, it is iteration and I see iteration as the next step from an innovative setting. That is what has been around for a long time and the days of the Apple iPad might be numbered now. I reckon that Huawei is unlikely to bust the Apple iPhone numbers for some time, but there is a danger that the Huawei Mate X6 (or the models that come after that) are unlikely to bash iPhone or Google Pixels as they are (for now) too expensive, but these new versions are ready to knock on our doors. So there is danger to be seen (for western technology) in the words of Jensen Huang and as the United States is massively anti-China, I wonder if Canada might be the next stage for illuminating the North American customers. I have no idea how Canadians are staged towards Chinese technology, but as their stance towards the Trump administration grows more hostile, there is every chance that this stage might go successful for China, especially if the US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra gives us another of his diplomatic jabs, as I see it, every time he says something more and more Canadians get a fresh doze of anti-Americanism. I’m just calling it as I see it.

Have a great day and consider the words of Jensen Huang, he might be more on the ball than I am (never a truer word was spoken). 

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What is real?

That is at times the question, the setting that someone is trying to give us fake. Now I am a most outspoken person in regards to AI, it doesn’t exist (yet) and whilst the media is all about AI (for their digital dollars), the real setting is when it will arrive. No matter how clever programmers become, it is still a programmers Wild Wild West. So when I took notice of the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/audio/play/w3ct8mf3) I had different questions. We are given “Anthropic – one of Silicon Valley’s leading AI firms – recently announced that they have built a model which is too dangerous to be released to the public. Instead, they are only giving access to the model to a handful of big companies, to help them find security vulnerabilities.The company says the model has already found weak spots in “every major operating system and web browser”. Is this a genuine example of a company acting responsibly, or more of a carefully calibrated publicity move?” OK, the premise seems clear, whatever they call AI, let’s call it Fake AI might have become a tad more potent and giving it to a chosen few might be the way to go. I personally would advice Dario Amodei to talk to IBM, this is not some prearranged setting. As far as I know IBM is the most advanced player for Shallow Circuits and that is one of the thresholds to get to Real AI, until that moment comes all AI is fake. Optionally he should talk to Google too, as I have no idea how far their shallow circuits are. But it is one of the three remaining thresholds before we can get to a Real AI setting. The other one’s are the Trinary Operating System and the other is decent weeding (like removing arranged data from verifiable data) We already have quantum technology, so that is on par. The weeding part comes I reckon when shallow circuits are done, m because when we combine this with the TOS (my personal gag here and I am giggling) we have the makings of perfect data dirt weeding. But the setting also evokes other thoughts. If Anthropic is this far ahead, what the hell is Sam Altman doing with all the billions is is seemingly squandering. You see ‘OpenAI to spend over $20 bln on Cerebras chips’. I am not debating the setting, it might be the strongest there is (for now), but if this market is thrown upside down in less than a decade, it implies that Sam Altman just wasted billions on chips that are basically obsolete by the end of the year. And in that same setting the quote “OpenAI is valued at approximately $852 billion”, what will be left of that when 2027 comes calling? I have supporting ideas. If Anthropic is ahead of OpenAI, as I reckon is Google, who will pay $852 billion for a third place setting? And in addition we know that DeepSeek is out there, but no one knows how far ahead of lagging it is. What was old it can do so at a much lower cost and when did business walk away from cost reductions?

All thoughts that come to mind and the media is weirdly unaware of them, so who are they working for? Not the audience that is seemingly clear. But if you want to dismiss my calling, that is fair. So few free to investigate your own data and don’t use one source, use at least half a dozen sources and when you do you will figure out that the equations and the money drop is not evening out. It is all reminiscent of the 90’s where people will pay mountains for mere concepts. I thought we had done away with those settings? 

Still, the current call is with Anthropic and Dario Amodei. I wonder how quickly we will see an update on how that is going. I am sure it might take several weeks, but in the meantime we can consider did OpenAI overtake Google Gemini yet? If so by how much and if not, what are these headlines of chips for billions, when Lays has them for $3.99 (ketchup taste optional).

And yes 20,000,000,000 is a real number, but so is the return on investment and where is that number with OpenAI? What is his return on investment? As such have a lovely day and if you are not investing in FakeAI try enjoying your coins in acquiring some coffee or tea, they both tend to wake up the senses.

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