As per yesterday several things occupy my brain, even a new technology (which I will discuss at a later stage) today is about OpenAI and Microsoft. I was ‘alerted’ to this yesterday through through Seeking alpha. I think I heard it before that, but I ignored it. Seeking Alpha (at https://seekingalpha.com/news/4579947-microsoft-falls-as-openai-partnership-evolves-says-it-will-no-longer-pay-revenue-share) gives us ‘Microsoft in focus as OpenAI partnership evolves, says it will no longer pay revenue share’ and we are given “Microsoft (MSFT) shares rose fractionally on Monday as the tech giant and OpenAI (OPENAI) said their partnership has continued to evolve, and OpenAI’s license will become non-exclusive. “Today, we are announcing an amended agreement to simplify our partnership and the way we work together, grounded in flexibility, certainty and a focus on delivering the benefits of AI broadly,” Microsoft wrote in a statement on its website. “The greater predictability in the amended agreement strengthens our joint ability to build and operate AI platforms at scale while providing both companies the flexibility to pursue new opportunities.”” In my mind I hear “Someone has figured out that this setting is based on shallow settings, the reality is dawning on them”, so whilst we are given “As part of the altered agreement, Microsoft will remain OpenAI’s primary cloud partner, and OpenAI products will ship on Azure first. However, there is now a tweak that says if Microsoft “cannot and chooses not to support the necessary capabilities,” OpenAI can go elsewhere. Julian Lin, Investing Group Leader for Best Of Breed Growth Stocks, said the deal is actually a “net positive” for Microsoft, despite the share price reaction.” I personally believe that OpenAI might present a hardcore liability for Microsoft and they are seeking to insulate from that fallout. And it might be merely my feelings in this and that is fine, but when you see the Anthropic setting, the DeepSeek setting there are several other elements that are roaring is near ugly heard and that has to go somewhere, something has got to break and it seems the ‘staged’ setting of evolutionary contract agree ments, might be part of all that. In retrospect I have no idea how OpenAI and Musk will battle their settings (and I partially do not care either). But the elements are there and whilst we are all about OpenAI, this concept selling setting rubs me the wrong way. So whilst we ‘might’ see ‘OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO’, all whilst some say “do you guys even use ChatGPT/OpenAI anymore? I find myself preferring Claude/Gemini to be honest”, I take a different turn, I don’t use any of them. Basically because they are all fake AI. Real AI is about a decade away, if not 2 decades. I might die before real AI is released, so I kinda do not care.
ComputerWorld, only today (a mere few hours ago) gave us (at https://www.computerworld.com/article/4163971/microsoft-openai-change-contract-terms-again.html) ‘Microsoft, OpenAI change contract terms–again’ starts with “When the two firms announced a revised agreement on Monday, it reinforced the need for enterprise IT executives to work with as many major AI players as possible, given the constantly changing landscape.” I do not disagree, but remember that Microsoft went all out about 5 years ago and whilst we saw all kinds of ‘total wreck approaches’ the ‘partnership’ went on and now that we see “the need for enterprise IT executives to work with as many major AI players as possible”, we might accept that, but we see no DeepSeek, do we? So whilst we see that Microsoft increased its stake and solidified its position as a major investor less than 6 months ago, these plans are now changing. So does Microsoft see something, or do they fear something? And then ComputerWorld gives us “One key component within earlier versions of the Microsoft-OpenAI deal was the change in the relationship if OpenAI ever achieved artificial general intelligence (AGI), a term that eludes a concrete definition but generally refers to AI that equals or exceeds human capabilities.” I find it funny because of all these definitions across the fake AI field. Do they really not see that it is about to fall apart? (Story to follow likely tomorrow). And when this war of the fakers is seen (OpenAI, Google, Anthropic) there is every chance that OpenAI ends up in last position (see another ‘winner’ chosen by Microsoft), but this war setting is almost real, but until there is a real revenue stream coming in, there is unlikely to be a real winner. So whilst ComputerWorld focusses on the market changes with “Analysts and consultants generally agreed that this altered agreement will reinforce, and should extend, the current enterprise IT trend of hedging bets by striking arrangements with a variety of AI providers, including the major hyperscalers. Beyond future-proofing enterprises’ AI efforts, some of those agreements are for practical issues, such as the need to work with global AI firms specializing in different languages that the enterprise needs.” And you already know where this goes next. So, when was the last time you saw this kinda bla bla settings in the last 45 years? I tend to go back to the early 90’s where they all tried to sign businesses up to concept selling, all whilst there was no revenue stream detectable. We see it now here. I get that analysts are not the most revenue sturdy people, but consultants need their revenue streams. It is their bread and butter. And what was that “for practical issues” about? You see ComputerWorld writes a good story and revenue is mentioned four times, three is shown next “In addition, the company’s role as a major investor in OpenAI is driving a different revenue relationship, it said: “Microsoft will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI. Revenue share payments from OpenAI to Microsoft continue through 2030, independent of OpenAI’s technology progress, at the same percentage but subject to a total cap. ”” interesting how salespeople are not that fuzzed about revenue. It is their income and bonus setting. So what was this really about?
Wouldn’t we like to know this? Just a few settings for todays stride in the coming week. And now I need to contemplate what I next write about the bad news, or the new technology. My conundrum for the last 4 hours of the day.
Have a great one today.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 