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May 31, 2023 · 07:42

The Gimmick

Every game needs to have one and during the night I contemplated how much more important it is to have one when you are replaying a game. This was all set in motion when I was replaying an RPG (which one does not matter), as such to enjoy replayability the game is either massive or (I will say AND) it needs a gimmick. Not something that the game has, but a gimmick it can hand to you to make it yours. You see, we all have these recollections whilst playing a game and we sometimes make notes. Yet what happens when the game is intelligent enough to make YOU a notebook whilst in the game? Your journey is set to paper every time you play that game again? Not just text, but drawn illustrations of what YOU saw in the game? One drawing that is added with every day of playing and that text can be saved to a USB in PDF form? Literally no RPG game has this and you can print it at home, n a much better printer in the office or at university or something like that. The font will be some version of Dancing script, Caveat or Pacifico and that too changes every time you replay the game, with make and female versions, small changes that make it unique. As such you and your neighbour would get two very different versions of their notebook. A story that is a journal and is added to the game as you play with you deciding how social you want to be with that journey. No game has it and if Microsoft  or one of its houses copy this idea, you will see what a losers they are (internal LOL added). 

My main thought is why no one considered this. It isn’t a hard thought to have and I feel certain I am not the first to think it, but no one added this to their game (not in all the RPG games I ever played). So is this a fluke and the idea is bad? Consider all the notes you make on games you play. Now you have a journal that keeps track on your progress, and in the game I designed here (title: Generations) that step makes more sense. The added evolution your as a gamer face in the game would benefit even more. As such the next generation (in the game) would start book 2 and you create a chronicle. Even more when we add mapping to the equation. No matter how you see it, one gimmick is nice but not enough. So where is gimmick number two? Well, I have to sleep on that one, but if my mind can evolve one gimmick, it can do so again and as I evolve this game and leave it for designers and programmers to make a new unique RPG for Sony Playstation/Amazon Luna/Logitech G Cloud and optionally Nintendo Switch. Microsoft will then have a new problem. It also supports my setting with Microsoft getting the Wooden spoon for being dead last. Even though I though it would finish behind the Google Stadia, now we have Tencent in the mix and that could spell more disaster for Microsoft. There is nothing like a console and a game pass (which is a good product) to be left on the road as the others have no need for it. For that you need GOOD exclusive games and over the last few years Microsoft didn’t add any and Redfall is apparently seen by a lot (I never played it) as wasted hard-drive space, which would equally apply to cloud space.

I just had another idea, but more about that hopefully tomorrow. I need to mull a few things over for that. You see, I wrote about part of it (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/02/25/the-stage-of-commerce/) when I wrote ‘The stage of commerce’, but what happens when we have a select group of NPC that we can evolve? We could apply it to all, but the game would become too messy. What if some NPC’s become cogs in the commerce machine? What happens when we enable them to be more by OUR actions? Not just a shop having more cash, but some NPC’s that become more powerful as we enable them to get education or skills? We would enable a larger dynamic in the game. How? That is the part I am mulling over at present. Schooling and buying business (or upgrading it) is merely one side and I think more could be done. Yet the how is in my mind at present. I feel pretty proud. I added several sides to RPG gaming that do not exist at present, as such the new developer could really come to the game with a massive bat to wield. A good stage to be in I believe, but that is what every innovator believes, the believe that self will prevail, I am in that regard no exception. We all have a similar stage to see this.

Enjoy the day (it is almost the middle of the week).

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May 25, 2023 · 11:49

The balancing scales

This story comes from two different directions, not too different, but there is no real link between the two (it will make sense, I promise). I (and millions with me) saw the Sony Showcase 2023. To be honest, I was a little disappointed. I do not think that this is on Sony, it is on me and to illustrate that, I will have to make a few sidesteps. In the first, you all know how I loathe Microsoft, they did this themselves (and their customer care with them) but we need to acknowledge and accept that Sony is now better because of Microsoft not in spite off. Sony grew to new heights as they were at each others throats. As they were battling for supremacy the gamers in both camps got a much better console and we all rejoiced. The issue (as I personally see it) is that the same needs to happen to games, driving games and gaming to new heights.  This is one and for me the most important reason to hope that Starfield, a Microsoft exclusive will become a 90%+ game. It will up the ante for Sony (and optionally Amazon Luna too). The show started with Fairgame$ a multi gamer experience which (even if it was not) smelled a lot like Ubisoft, all smooth, all overwhelming, but the real deal? We will have to wait and see. Helldivers 2 was very Starship Troopers, Phantom Blade 0 looked like an upgraded Sekiro and Towers of Aghasba had a Zelda feel to it. The games were nice, they were very turbo. They had their good moments too, or at least moments I lived for and I am not stating that all games need to be set to me, but when you saw that Telescope looking like the telescope from Alien (more futuristic), what did you think? Then we get some foam game that was clearly based upon Nintendo Splatoon, a turbo edition. This happens and I am happy for the PS5 people who get to have a go at this game, but all this is iteration and gaming, real good gaming gets offered innovation, we need that to evolve gaming and that is one of the reasons why I hope that Starfield is the game every gamers waits for. I had my moments, I loved Spiderman 2, I saw the new parts and they looked good, they really do, but is it innovation? I feel uncertain, there were more games. I can’t wait to get my hands on Alan Wake 2, it seems to be a winner, but seems is the operative word, it is gameplay we need and we saw little of that (apart from Spiderman 2). Yet the story behind this is that we need actual innovation in gaming on every console and this time around Microsoft seemingly gets to have first dibs on that, but we will know for sure in September. 

This links to the second part of it. I am replaying AC Origins and now I got to the curse of the pharaoh which is graphically a new height. Yet here my mind wandered, I had played it before and I cherished it. I took a sidestep to Valerian and Laureline (in Dutch: Ravian), I grew up with that comic as well with the Trigan Empire and things started to blend, started to mingle. So what if this game is not an assassins game and you cannot climb, hide or anything. Almost like Everybody’s Gone to the Rapture, but now with a much larger stealth part, no killing. The idea floated in my mind when I saw the Star Trek Voyager episode Displaced in season 3. So what happens when we get to the two worlds Aaru and Aten. So when we get there we know nothing, we get to live lives, we get to walk around and we get to missions, but not in the usual ways. We need to be part of, or hear conversations to open this story and both worlds will have a dozen story lines. No Sekmet scorpions or Cobra’s. You think it is boring, but this is not a game for everyone, it is one where the story is everything and Ubisoft has shown that it can create good stories.  

This interacts when we doe in one world, we wake up in the other and vice vera, so you need to die at times (it is a hassle, but so is life). As such we get to learn that this is a prison and we need to learn why we are prisoners (a little The Status Civilization by Robert Sheckley where we get to see versions of stagnation and conformity) and for this the ancient civilisations were great. Life was simple and the mind is much easier observed and classified when it does the simple things. Yet how to set this in gaming? Ubisoft had its device, but what happens when the world is the device? What happens when the wold is not part of the mind, but the mind has to adhere to that world? No matter how complex we are, the mind controls is and as such we are shown new iterations and that could lead to innovations. But in this the story is everything.

We can speculate and ejaculate all over innovation, yet unless we are holding it in our hands (sorry, no pun intended) we have no idea what innovation looks like, the mind will not fill in the blanks, our wills do and that is why Google and Amazon missed out (at least twice already) So how do we get about to find the next innovator in gaming? Well we can dump all the BI people stating they have no clue and rely on the artsy people to dream the new game. Perhaps one with tech savvy skills, because art only gets us so far, tech does the rest, not Business Intelligence. 

This is my view and there will be people telling me I am wrong here. I will let you decide. For now, I want the new iteration of System Shock. Mainly because how the initial game made me feel, just like Mass Effect 1 ten years later. I miss that feeling to some degree, which I personally believe is the reason that some remaster are great reminders.

Enjoy the day.

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May 21, 2023 · 23:53

The perception of others

This is a case, this is often a case and in this case. I am one of the others. You see the ‘news’ is no longer that, it is often filtered information. Information that is accepted by shareholders, stake holders and advertisers, as such the people are seen and treated more often than not as a distant fourth. This setting came to the forefront when I saw ‘G7 takes stand against China’s “economic coercion”’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-65662720) where we are given “And in not one but two statements, the leaders of the world’s richest democracies made clear to Beijing their stance on divisive issues such as the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan. But the most important part of their message centred on what they called “economic coercion””  Now here we need to pause. These people do not lie (at least I hope they do not), but lets take a look at the evidence. The first is the ‘world’s richest democracies’, these nations are

1. Canada, debt around $ 2,100,000,000,000
2. France, debt around € 3,000,000,000,000
3. Germany, debt around € 2,600,000,000,000
4. Italy, debt around $ 3,000,000,000,000
5. Japan, debt around $ 9,300,000,000,000
6. UK, debt around £ 2,500,000,000,000
7. USA, debt around $ 32,500,000,000,000

Yes, they are really rich (in debt). To give a little consideration “As of April 2023 it costs $460 billion to maintain the debt, which is 13% of the total federal spending” for the US, their interest is $460,000,000,000 to pay for the interest and 13% of the entire budget is to pay for the interest. So all this talk about debt ceilings is close to null and void. Not unlike a Ponzi scheme the US government is taking out new loans to pay for the INTEREST of old loans. When did that ever go good? But that is not what this is about. The next stage is about ‘economic coercion’ something America and others have done for decades. Economic coercion is a political tool that the US pushed all over the middle east, and now that Saudi Arabia and other are pulling their contract with the US and giving options to China it is coercion? I mentioned it a few days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/05/19/the-stupidity-of-some/) in ‘The stupidity of some’, I made mention of some elements then and several other articles before that. One should not bite the hands that feeds you and I reckon that is why other players were invited to this party as well (no matter what they say). The US is broke and needs others to do some of the heavy lifting. This is OK, or at least that is why allies stick together, but the bulk is deeply in debt with Canada and Australia in a much better position. Germany had industrial revenues so it is not that bad off either. But this is not bout that, it becomes clear when we see “Now, they worry they are being held hostage. In recent years, Beijing has been unafraid to slap trade sanctions on countries that have displeased them. This includes South Korea, when Seoul installed a US missile defence system, and Australia during a recent period of chilly relations.” They worry? So are they being held hostage, or are they not. Lets be clear all these players have engaged with some form of economic coercion in the past, it is a valid political tool, but now that the shoe is on the other foot, the US is worried. It is losing its grip on the Middle East and as Saudi Arabia is uniting its nations and leagues with the added Syria, Egypt and now optionally Iran as well, the stage changes for the west in the Middle East. China has been invited there now and that worries all players of team G7. You see with them losing 5%-10% revenue to China due to all kinds of reasons they are now scared that someone (the big banks like the Rothschilds) will cancel THEIR credit card and that has them scared silly. I would be to, I really would. This is just a few reasons why I tried to sell my IP to Saudi Arabia and Kingdom Holdings (optionally the UAE too). Amazon and Google were asleep and not caring (perhaps they didn’t like my IP) and Microsoft is not invited to that party and optionally Tencent Technologies is.

You see, the stage, several stages are turning to China as an option. Does China have any less debt? I cannot tell, but they are drilling into new business like nothing we see and that has the G7 scared. 

So when we get to “They called for “de-risking”- a policy that Ms von der Leyen, who is attending the summit, has championed. This is a more moderate version of the US’ idea of “decoupling” from China, where they would talk tougher in diplomacy, diversify trade sources, and protect trade and technology.” We see the larger stage, the ‘west’ will diversify trade sources, so that new and emerging economies can only do business with them if they do not do business with China. Almost like Sony did with retailers in 1998/1999. Those who were showing the SEGA Dreamcast would not be getting the PS2. It scared a lot of retailers because PS2 was a winning system and it did. The same was done much earlier with VHS pushing out Betamax (which was superior). A tool used again and again. Yet the larger stage is not these emerging economies, they are a factor, it is what will Saudi Arabia and the UAE do, they are now aligning the next decade and they were the big spenders all over the place and that setting is now heading for China (not sure if it is a done deal) and in this Egypt is important. With them championing Huawei and their G5, Egypt aligns with Saudi Arabia and a lot of commerce and Egypt then becomes a 5G beachhead all over the mediterranean and Africa. This will benefit China a lot. And as we get to “The US is already doing this with its ban on exports of chips and chip technology to China, which Japan and the Netherlands have joined. The G7 is making clear such efforts would not only continue, but ramp up, despite Beijing’s protestations.” This is the stage that is evolving and it is a dangerous move to make. I get why it is done. In the first I am not stating that China is innocent, I am stating that they all used these tools and the debts are drowning their actions. The danger is that if there are any innovative people in China, they will come with an alternative. I have no idea what, but I recall a nice example. The US created a specific ballpoint pen that could be used in space, they spend millions on that solution somehow and Russia? They used a pencil. We saw the Huawei block by Google and now Huawei is rocking the Harmony OS which is available in 77 languages. It is different from both Google and Apple, so what happens when Harmony becomes the tool of choice in the Middle East? You can ban and block, but the danger is that someone finds another way just like Toshiba in Russia decades ago and there was no alternative, as such Toshiba grew and grew with an entire market where they had no competition. Will it happen again? I am certain of it, when one resource closes people look for another resource, it is a natural continuation. Only really stupid people think that no one can get around them and I wonder what will come next. As such I have issues and the BBC did nothing wrong here, they reported, they used quotes and they adhered to something (not sure what). I am showing you that what is said is not merely dangerous it is deceptive. It these are the richest democratic economies, why is there a 50 trillion dollar debt (actually it is decently higher at present). A debt of 50,000 billion and no one is asking questions. I get it (to some degree) Russia is now a problem, the Ukraine is dealing with it, but it can only do so much. It needs support and I agree they do need it and I believe they deserve all the help we can give them, yet across the waters there is no one dealing with the actual debt, they are merely prolonging a complete collapse that will have too many deep in debt for decades. Retirement plans will collapse, health care will collapse and we will all blame someone, but no one is looking at how we all let this happen and now those with the option will look towards the Middle East (including me), a lot are looking at China as an option and a global brain drain will be the consequence. All settings that the G7 will have to consider, because they all have a lot to lose.

Enjoy the start of Monday up to 12 hours (for some) from now. 

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May 19, 2023 · 10:42

The stupidity of some

Yes, we all see that and it has repercussions for these people. We might sit on the sidelines laughing, but it shows a dangerous premise, the stupidity of America, the stupidity of some Americans and how they scuttled their own ship called ‘Future of us’ and ‘us’ could also be seen as ‘US’. This is shown in two articles. The first one is from Yahoo Finance. There was a little better NY Times article, but that was behind a paywall, so you would not be able to read the whole text.

The article (at https://news.yahoo.com/disney-cancels-1-billion-florida-185105108.html) gives us ‘Disney Cancels $1 Billion Florida Expansion’. A setting that came because an idiot (aka Gov. Ron DeSantis) decided to start a war for a trivial reason. He wanted to ‘Douse the Mouse’ (sorry Brittlestar, this is too good a slogan to pass up). And now Disney has cancelled an expansion where we get “The 10-figure office complex near Walt Disney World would have brought more than 2,000 jobs to the region, according to an estimate from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity” So not only does this governor rub any fat cat the wrong way. He now has grievance with the Commercial houses of Florida, his Republican back, the Democrats of Florida and a few other people. Along with the 2000 people not getting a job, up to 8 people connected to anyone losing that job, as such he is 25,000-50,000 votes down and there is likely a larger loss for the Republican side. An ego centric stupid act on the premise of perception that should not have existed in the first place. It is stupid for a few reasons more. The American have alienated Saudi Arabia, optionally the UAE, Egypt and Lebanon as well. Billions in defence industry is now going to China, building contracts in Syria and Saudi Arabia are now going to China, as such the EU and USA are losing out on billions more. The idea that the EU will cater to another Disney-world giving the EU billions more is not out of the question, all money lost to the US, in a stage where they have over 31 trillion in debt. An act too stupid to contemplate and this could have been avoided. In the 70’s my elders taught me ‘Do not bite the hand that feeds you’ and in 1968 we have the premise ‘Money talks, bullshit walks’ and the US seemingly only has walking left. In this day and age I saw the option for millions more in revenue in IT and it will likely go to the UK, the EU (Germany most likely) and Australia (weirdly enough). I am not ruling out Canada, but I know too little about their abilities in that field. Millions more and the list goes on. America dropped well over $5 billion a year on my recent watch alone. And all this before you realise the blunders that signify the USS Zumwalt with its $4 billion expense and the massive drop in abilities. Just to be clear, I am no naval expert, but I dit get a degree in ships engineering and navigation in 1979, so I am not totally in the dark here. The USS Blue Ridge that launched in 1970 outperforms it by a lot and the cost of that rubber ducky is a mere 5% of the failure that the USS Zumwalt represents. I reckon the idea that a congress would not order the smart bullets that the Zumwalt needs (at $800,000 per bullet) might have been the wake up call some people needed. In that environment we get to the second linked article. 

The second article is from the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2023/may/18/us-debt-ceiling-crisis-republicans) and here there is another side. I do not agree. You see, we can listen to the emotional ‘The US debt ceiling crisis is more proof of Republicans’ cynicism and bad faith’. Here I am on the Republican side. There is a folly to let 31 trillion fester and fester to something more. This is a pox on both houses and it has been for well over 25 years when a tax overhaul was needed and we all hear the same BS. Too hard, too complex. Well, they are close to default on whatever they have left and as Disney goes towards the EU they will open more doors. IBM, Adobe, Amazon, Google and Microsoft are already diversifying leaving the US with nothing (well almost nothing). And as they alienated the few allies left they see an exodus to China, China of all places. 

This is the act of stupidity, stupidity on both houses that would not act when they could and now they are in patters of indecision and they are all trying to find fat jobs in global corporations before the house collapses and it is close to collapsing. This, (and a few related items) was why I tried to sell my IP to the Middle East. In the first you go where the money is. In the second you find a place where you can enjoy your golden years. Because as I see it the US will be a very dangerous place to stay soon enough. Over 200 million desperate people? Yes, that is not a place for me and when the energy shortages hit it will get a lot worse soon enough, they had options there too, but they squandered those options in the last 5 years. 

So whilst everyone is pointing at me stating that I am the stupid one (a fair thought to have) consider that my IP was right in at least two cases, optionally two more that are now evolving. Yet I have a few more and they are all destined to go towards places like Huawei and Tencent technologies. And in all honestly between nothing and  few crumbs, ill take the crumbs, especially if that results in a view like below. 

This is not my 39 coins of silver. It is merely a retirement dream that could optionally be true. And what would you do when you have the choice between what I choose and a retirement home without resources? Because that is what the US (EU and UK too) created with their ego driven decision tree.
Dousing the mouse? When was that ever a good idea, especially when it decides to cancel a billion dollar expansion? Will it go to Euro Disney? With the economic setting the French have, that might be a realistic option for the minions of Walt Disney, and the US? Well it made its own bed, to bad for them that as the others leave that sinking ship well over 275,000,000 Americans will be caught in the middle. They had their options and they voted, or they did not vote and lost their right to complain.

Have a great Friday.

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May 13, 2023 · 18:09

A weekend of revelations

Yup, this happens. However, before I go there, I need to take you on a little trip. It all started in January 2022. I set the design for a new Watchdogs game and I wrote about it in ‘Looky Looky’ which I published in February 2022 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/02/13/looky-looky/) it was the second time I made mention of it (I could not find the first one). Yet at times reality catches up with gaming. That much was clear when I saw ‘Google’s ‘translation glasses’ were actually at I/O 2023, and right in front of our eyes’ (at https://www.zdnet.com/article/googles-translation-glasses-were-actually-at-io-2023-and-right-in-front-of-our-eyes/), my gaming idea was ahead of reality by almost a year, which is not a bad marker to have. It also shows that I had a much better grasp of the IoT world than some proclaim I have (which is nice too). Here we are one step away from pictogram deciphering. So as we are given “unlike Google Glass, this new concept, which didn’t have a name at the time (and still doesn’t), demonstrated the practicality of digital overlays, promoting the idea of real-time language translation as you were conversing with another person.” The nice side effect is that my approach to Augmented Reality is now close to completion. Yes, Google might have the glasses, but I have at least three more options and they are all about to become Public Domain, which might not make me rich, but it shows I was right all along. In addition to this it will bump my other IP, as well as the 5G plus plans I had. Which is still wishful thinking, but with more and more of my early writings becoming reality, it shows I was on the right track all along.

The side effects are nothing to be sneered at. I get that, but a dozen greed driven fuckers poisoning the well aren’t nice either and I will turn all my IP public domain before I let some fat fuck come at me with the “let me help you matey”, that person has no idea what a ‘mate’ is, all greed driven, all bullet point driven and utterly clueless in nearly all IT manners.

So as we realise “Twelve months have passed and the popularity of AR has now been replaced by another acronym: AI, shifting most of Google and the tech industry’s focus more toward artificial intelligence and machine learning and further away from metaverses and, I guess, glasses that help you transcribe language in real time.” We see that at Google, there is an equal distorted sense. They might have mentioned AI 143 times as ZDNet counted, but AI is not real. AR on the other hand is here now and it could have much larger repercussions for retail and malls. I wrote about that a few times over and even as Gucci and partners are on track, a lot is not and that was the larger stage for Google. 144,000 malls with many well over 100 shops. And that was also the profit setting. Do once and distribute to well over 10,000 malls at a time. It does depend on the amount of malls a shop is in, but the message is clear. AR is the direct future and will have an evolution over a few other matters. 

The second revelation (for me) was given by something called the Verdict (at https://www.verdict.co.uk/sap-google-cloud-team-up/) there we see mention of SAP and Google teaming up. Unless you have larger BI involvement you might miss it. Yet the stage of these two working together is a much bigger hit then you think. With SAP Dashboard and Google statistics there is a new field growing and it is there for everyone, which is the start of decline for Microsoft. A company that is now the focal point of PHAAS, and as I saw today the howling laughter of people trying to install their Office365 only to learn that their subscription ended in 1968.

I initially thought it was a direct attack to a person I knew, but it is happening all over the place. Microsoft has serious issues and all whilst they are trying to acquire gaming firms for 68 billion more. Yes, that is the place to go! As such Google already had a clear advantage, but now with the SAP link all corporations that are above small businesses, Google will have something more to offer and SAP as well. A stage that was in the making and when Adobe joins that team the disaster moment for Microsoft is pretty much complete. I cannot tell how this unfolds, but the larger stage is Microsoft dropping the ball all over the place and now that we have Google and SAP picking it up, the losses for Microsoft will increase and within a year they will be massive and as such the small firms dumping Office365 and joining the Google family will pick up more and more. Now however it will not merely be Google, SAP solutions will be all over the place hindering IBM Watson growth as well. There was a large slice of the pie for whom IBM Watson was just too big, to cumbersome, but as I see it SAP has that under new management. And as IBM Watson goes, so do all the blue settings (Azure) that Microsoft was hoping for, it is almost pathetic how that translates into ‘wishful thinking of unrequited love’ (me howling with laughter now).

Yes this is quite the revelation weekend for me. I should consider another gaming IP for Amazon Luna and Sony. There is something rewarding to kicking a corporation when it is on its knees thinking it was too good for anyone else. The joy of being mean (not a synonym for average). 

Enjoy the weekend. I am, that much is a given today.

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May 12, 2023 · 00:17

Spend, spend, spend

Yes, that can be seen as spending three times over. We are of course referring to the debilitating debt the US has and now it is about to cost them a lot, in the larger stage this has had my attention for some time, but today three articles brought it to the top (yet again). The first one comes from the CBC (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/debt-ceiling-us-scrap-1.6836090) where we see ‘The U.S. debt limit is again stoking fears across the globe. Why not just scrap the thing?’ There are of course several answers to that part, but it is ““I don’t think there’s any reason to have it exist anymore,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office, who is the current president of the right-wing think-tank American Action Forum.” I think that Douglas has been sniffing the alternative Gatorade. You see, if there was no reason to have credit limits, I would take out a $50M loan with my IP as collateral and move to Dubai. Have a nice one floor apartment and live of the rest with $300K a month at my disposal until the day I die. The reality is that we all have credit limits and most of us have a credit limit that is in the basement. As such nations and governments have limits as well. It is the idea that Americans think they do not have one, but that is a false assumption. It might have had a delusional ring of truth when they were a super power and when they had all the innovations, but they first off shored the knowledge they had because the board of directors had more bonus options, but they are now either retired or mostly dead. Now India has that power, now Saudi Arabia is the innovative player and now China is about to become the one true superpower. All negative things for the US, but this is what they wanted and they shunned Saudi Arabia too often and now they lose them as an ally as well. The one player that really has all the cash is shunned. Well done America! In the mean time spending went on and it was catered to by people who have close to no ash in the first place. Now the Fortune 100 have less American companies and several of them have a spin on what they really own. The largest players who really have things are Google, IBM, Amazon and Adobe. The rest are wannabe collapsing entities. There is Netflix, but they will be in turmoil for at least a year and there is no way to tell how they are pulling through. Facebook is under the gun and they are about to lose another segment, in the meantime Meta is nowhere near ready. 

So off to article two, this is Reuters (at https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-debt-standoff-overshadows-g7-finance-leaders-meeting-2023-05-11/) giving us ‘US debt standoff overshadows G7 finance leaders’ meeting’, which could be true. You see, Japan is in deep waters, optionally too deep, but that requires financial knowledge I do not have, what I think is the case, is that they are too deep in debt and when the US goes, so does Japan. The 7 nations are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. Italy and France are already in deep waters, in part of the overspending my Mario Draghi, in part of a slowing economy. The UK has its own set of troubles which basically leaves Canada and they cannot hold the fort by themselves but that is the group that is in some kind of meeting and the conversation to raise the debt ceiling is a farce, they all know that the US is fighting of shadows of their former selves all alone, all because no one was willing to do something about overspending and they are decades too late in overhauling their tax systems. All these small issues line up to a setting where there is soon an America defaulting on ALL their loans, bonds collapse and that also pushes Japan over the edge. The Reuters article also gives us “U.S.-China tensions also cloud the outlook for the global economy that is already under pressure from signs of weakness in the world’s second-largest economy China.” This is a stage that I find debatable, from my point of view (optionally not a correct one), the Chinese economy is already surpassing America and now that they have the stage for the Middle East with larger venues into Saudi Arabia, they surpass America. The fact that Saudi Oil can now be bought with Yuan is the one push America never needed and never really could handle. With Saudi Arabia about to launch their own version (in English) of Al Jazeera will mean that advertisers have an alternative to Fox and CNN and when that channel branches out to Indonesia, Egypt, Bangladesh and India, the numbers will vastly surpass 500,000,000 viewers. In this I didn’t even consider Pakistan at present. As such where do you think Advertiser will go? America pushed the wrong buttons for years and now their birds are roosting in other nests. The third is also Reuters (at https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yellen-warns-us-default-would-threaten-global-economy-undermine-us-leadership-2023-05-11/) giving us ‘Yellen warns US default would threaten global economy, undermine its leadership’ where we see “U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday urged Congress to raise the $31.4 trillion federal debt limit and avert an unprecedented default that would trigger a global economic downturn and risk undermining U.S. global economic leadership” in this I personally believe that the US hasn’t been a real economic leader for some time. It started just before the age of Trump as the US learned that they could no longer afford the things they were doing and now these accounts are all coming up empty all at the same time. So at the end we are given “Yellen said Republican brinkmanship on the issue amounted to a “crisis of our own making” and that just the threat of a default could lead to a downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating, as occurred during a debt ceiling fight in 2011.” I personally feel that this is totally bogus, the issue was overspending and both sides of the isle were doing that and both sides were doing that. In addition they alienated the one player who was loaded, the rich relative was made a pariah and that didn’t sit well with that relative. This is why I approached them with my IP. I feel better when someone with the cash pays for my IP than the fakers who have a maximised credit card, implying I would be without cash for too long whilst they walk away with my multi billion dollar IP. I will not allow Microsoft anywhere near it, as such I would have no issues selling it to Tencent Technologies (with a few attached clauses mind you). And I have reason. A clear solution that could have given Google and/or Amazon billions was shunned by them giving me the excuse to go wherever I needed to go to get my golden retirement. And they connect. You see, they are all about contracting economies, all whilst innovation will go where there was no one and in my case in several cases there was no one, only in one case there was someone (Gucci), but they are only on one side of one IP I had and I had several other venues connected to it, optionally to android phones as well. And you see that same issue here. We see ‘raise the debt ceiling’ whilst 4 presidents did not stop overspending, it was not an issue and now as they lose tens of billions in industries that are all headed for China, they are all up in arms with “Yellen wants G7 debate on restricting investment to China”, just like the Huawei issue and we never were EVER given any evidence regarding Huawei. That is the effect of a bully who lost whatever innovation they had to players who were truly innovative and now they are running out of time, they are running out of fairway and they have nothing left. Two elemental parts were ignored for too long the first was overhauling their tax system, the second was overspending and in 2011 the point of no return was reached, both Democrats and Republicans worked together in making that happen and China merely waited for it to collapse and that is now about to happen. Will there be another raise? I cannot tell, but this is not enough, after this one another one will come and that is how this game is being played, almost like bluffing in Omaha poker, the issue is that bluffing is too dangerous and can often fall flat, for someone to think that they can bluff for this long is a new level of delusion. 

No matter what, we are about to find out how much longer the US can play that game and they returns to the stage of tax the rich, another delusional setting, which by the way works out well for Monaco, the Bahamas and Dubai to name but three where the retiring rich could go to actually enjoy their cash. 

Enjoy your day unless you have a PacWest Bank account, at that point you are decently screwed at present.

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May 6, 2023 · 19:59

Having the ball

Yes, sometimes we have the balls, sometimes a little less so. Yet in the BBC court we see two players (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-65244351) one is FIFA the other one is EA. So whilst we got on April 24th ‘Fifa no more? EA Sports rebrands its biggest game’. Yes it has been 2 weeks, but I do not particularly care about FIFA, so I left it alone. Yet this afternoon a few thoughts fell through. They came up in the first hour I noticed it, actually they came up about 5 minutes after the announcement that EA was going to drop FIFA. There was a plan for them, I had no doubt about that and 2 weeks ago we got the gist. “the developer behind one of the most successful franchises in gaming history, moves on to its new football game, EA Sports FC.” Just like Fortnite having its spasms, EA has a plan to avoid FIFA costs and I reckon that they wanna keep all 5 billion of that revenue. And we get “Mr Jackson emphasised that more than 19,000 footballers, 700 teams and 30 leagues will still be represented in the game, despite the split from football’s governing body.” Yet the larger impact is one some are not realising. How are these all represented? The IP of football shirts are partially set things like “the FIFA online store for officially licensed national team kits” are in many places, as such EA has issues. They are ‘focussed’ on “EA has also unveiled its FC Futures programme, which it says will support grassroots football projects across the world” which I personally see as ‘the party line’, but FIFA has its claws in its field, so the player is in for a surprise or two. Now, this is not necessarily bad, but the history of the loot-box is fresh, they need a new approach and I have no idea how they will go about that part. Also FIFA was way too big with 700 teams, so what gives there? 

And then we saw the game in a dangerous setting “The new Fifa game, Fifa 25, 26, 27 and so on, will always be the best e-game for any girl or boy”, and as this becomes an E-game, parents better realise that this comes at a cost. I reckon EA will play it softly and slowly change their grip from silk glove into a vice. Five billion is nothing to be sneered at and no matter how slow it happens, it will happen. We will see all the excuses, all the ‘mis communications’ but no that FIFA is cut off, EA will play a very different game. Some will be thrown by “everything you know and love from the modern FIFA games, including Ultimate Team, Career Mode, Pro Clubs, and VOLTA. You can expect the same attention to detail and number of official licenses, too.” In this I am not certain, but I need to see evidence before making that call and EA is playing this close to the chest at present.

And here is the kicker, as far as I can tell, at present there is no confirmed news on whether EA will follow the free-to-play route with EA Sports FC or not. This matters, because an E-sport that is not free to play could easily start at $5 a week, that is almost $25 a month making the game a lot more expensive whist after month 2 EA will be raking in the money. If it is free to play, the player will need to rely on premium packs at $7 each, so how does that math work out for you? 700 teams, 19000 players. How many packs will that be? Perhaps the player has one free team (depending on where they are) the rest not so much. And this is a problem, but also this view is speculative. EA is keeping its hand closed, so until they reveal we really do not know. 

The larger stage is ‘avoided being seen’ with “We do see ourselves as the world’s game. And as a result, we need to meet players and fans, where they are. This is a great embodiment of our commitment to football in general.” You see, I did (and still do) see loot-boxes as non-gambling. Yet FIFA was in a stage of exploitation and now that they cannot ‘hide’ behind the FIFA brand they have a much larger issue, because like most companies, they are hesitant to give away the 5 billion in revenue, even though they keep most of it now, they aren’t Amazon or Google (who wasted billions) EA has a bottom line, it has revenue depending shareholders, so if this goes south there will be a culling in EA management. 

Yet until the ACTUAL announcements come (not all the speculations we see everywhere) we will have to wait and as the game is expected to come in late September, I expect that the whole enchilada will be revealed no later than July, so roughly 8 weeks away, but that too is speculation from my side.

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May 5, 2023 · 00:09

The missed off-ramp

We all have that, we are focussed on one path, one one goal and as such we miss what is in the corner of our eyes. This is not new and no one is impervious, not even me. I was so focussed on my IP and for decent reasons that I forgot to look at what else is possible. In this the Amazon Luna has additional options. The idea that it could be used for all kinds of education wasn’t lost on many, but did they consider the larger field here? 

So in comes a treasure of the past. In 1990 Sid Meier released Railroad Tycoon and it would spread to nearly every home computer on the planet. It was informative and at times educational. Yet the setting could be altered. Yes we can remaster that game and perhaps that is a good consideration. Yet the larger station is not a new version but a totally new game. So what when we do this involving shipping, not merely as a game, but as an educational tool. A setting that starts in the 12th century and from there the ‘student’ gets to create a ship, start an economy and over time we grow from one ship to a fleet, from local boats (educating us on shipping and fishing)  to cargo vessels. The players will get introduced to ports and port costs, profits, margins and in a way that sets a diary towards economics and history, the ships will give people understanding on engineering even mathematics (something keeps that thing afloat). When the game is merely a vessel of distributing knowledge and education the premise of a system changes and that offers a larger tribunal towards educating new and young minds. If ‘the shipping world’ is merely a step, what more can be done? I saw games on the workings of a law firm, too much game, but the idea had options for growth and that is where the educational off ramp becomes stronger. Yes, parents are all up in arms against children playing FIFA and Fortnite, but what happens when educational games get a much stronger appeal? What happens when the next generation gets a new infusion on mathematics, economy, history, engineering and even sciences? This is merely one game, so what happens when the next generation gets an additional education in culture and languages as well. We need to look at the Middle East and Asia where these solutions will find eager minds. India has well over a billion people and when we consider Indonesia, Pakistan and India, the solution would come close to 2 billion minds that is one hell of cluster to consider and my IP was nowhere near that large but it adds to the setting and those two stages are off ramps that neither Amazon nor Google considered seriously. Google even dropped their Stadia, even though it had options, but they never saw it and now there is merely Amazon, with Tencent following closely, for Amazon too close even. All due to missed off ramps these two giants left billions on the floor and now Tencent Technologies is almost in range to pick it up themselves. We all miss opportunities, but Google and Amazon left the opportunity on the floor for close to two years. Do you think that Tencent technologies will make that mistake? 

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May 2, 2023 · 12:57

Wages of fear

That happens, we at times decide to take a very risky road and US politicians more than most, but now they are about to head into shallows with a cruise liner? You will state that this is no big deal, tugs will pull it into deep water and normally you would be right. Yet in this case the cargo is nitroglycerine, so as it hits the shores the ship goes badaboom, a really big badaboom and it is not a ship we are talking about, it is the US economy. So as we consider what is about to happen, lets give you an example.

Netflix


Netflix at present (and over the last year has had well over 225 million subscribers, giving it an annual payday of well over $27,000,000,000 which is not too shabby, a good setting to work from.  So after the 17 billion in new media it has over 10 billion and change, I reckon that 50% if not more into technology, as such they are doing fine.

US Economy
Now we get into a less good place, the US economy and do not mistake one for the other. The US economy has many. Complexities, but the setting does not change, it needs to pay bills. As such we rely on Forbes giving us “The National Debt Approaches $32 Trillion, Will It Bankrupt America?”  (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2023/04/25/the-national-debt-approaches-32-trillion-will-it-bankrupt-america/) and this is where two groups are opposing, those in denial claim it will not be so (very wishful thinking). I myself and many others are on the opposing side of the debate. Forbes gives us “The current revenue of the federal government is approximately $4.6 trillion while spending exceeds $6.0 trillion. Thus, the current budget deficit is over $1.4 trillion. It’s clear that members of Congress are spending like drunken sailors and like the Titanic, the U.S. is on a collision course with a financial iceberg” yet this is merely one side of the shallows they are heading for. You see, that we get from another side (the New York Times) who gives us that the US is running out of money somewhere between June and September. Yet that is not the whole enchilada. These two parts should alert you to the US Bonds fiasco, I tried to warn you a few times over. You see whilst everyone is cheering on bonds, there is a downside. These pesky papers mature and even as the interest payday seems small (1.65%) over $20,000,000,000,000 that still ends up being a $330 billion invoice and the budget does not take that in. OK, it is not all due immediately, but a rough estimate gives is that in the next 4 years $2,400,000,000,000 does and that is still a massive amount. Add to this the budget deficit that has been going on for years and you see the problem the US economy is heading for. It might never have been avoided, it could have been delayed by a lot. And with the current deficits, where will the US find $600 billion annual in maturing bonds (2023-2027)

I warned of this 25 years ago when I called for a tax overhaul where companies (Google, Facebook, IBM, Apple, that loser Microsoft and several more) would pay their fair share, merely their fair share.

The point of no return was reached when Barack Obama became president of the United States. Lets be clear, this was NOT his fault, but the point where we cannot avoid what comes next was achieved. If only people had woken up a lot sooner. But there we got past a point where the problems would accelerate and now we are almost at that point. And the banks will be no help. I tried to warn you a few times over. Some of their risk and liquidity is in US bonds and when the US forfeits payment your 401K and many other things will become worth close to nothing. So if you wonder where wealth of middle class incomes is, look towards Mexico. 

And will it get worse? Yes, but how remains an issue for now. Politicians will give way to wealth and rich friends first, so that they an get their slice and these people will go to Monaco, Dubai and the Bahamas. Many of them saw this coming and they already have places there, they have had them for years. So what can be done? Actually nothing, it is too late for that, all the whining and claims will fall flat and merely moves the timeline. The American children will know what true poverty feels like, they will get there at the end of their teens or early adult life. There are a few things that will happen, pushing forward bonds will be the easiest and convincing these owners to sell to appointed people or let it ride for a lot more, but that is a bill that adds a decent amount. Whomever has a billion in bonds and is offered 3.8% instead of 1.65% will consider it and I reckon that this is why we now see 20 years bonds (personal speculation). But after that the options go dark, really dark and that is what banks fear too, because the next bank run will take away a truck load of liquidity. It is like the stowaway that went for the happy shores or America, only to learn that the weather is foul and they suddenly realise that the cargo hold is filled with Nitroglycerine. Would you chance swimming, or hope for the best. Don’t forget that the shallows were YOUR saviour, not that much for a cruise-liner with combustibles.

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April 18, 2023 · 19:45

The choice of options

Part of this started yesterday when I saw a message pass by. I ignored it because it seemed trivial, yet today ( a few hours ago) I took notice of ‘Google rushes to develop AI search engine after Samsung considers ditching it for Bing’ from ZDNet (at https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-rushes-to-develop-ai-search-engine-after-samsung-considers-ditching-it-for-bing/) and ‘Alphabet shares fall on report Samsung may switch search to Bing’ (at https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/4/17/alphabet-shares-fall-on-report-samsung-may-switch-search-to-bing). In part I do not care, actually this situation is a lot better for Google than they think it is. You see, Samsung, a party I disliked for 33 years, after being massively wronged by them. Decided to make the fake AI jump. It is fake as AI does not exist and when the people learn this the hard way, it will work out nicely for Huawei and Google. There is nothing like a dose of reality being served like a bucket of ice water to stop consumers looking at your product. I do not care, I refuse any Samsung device in my apartment. I also dislike Bing, it is a Microsoft product and two years ago I got Bing forced down my throat again and again through hijack scripts, it took some time blocking them. So I dislike both. I have no real opinion of ChatGPT. As we see the AI reference. Let’s take you to the Conversation (at https://theconversation.com/not-everything-we-call-ai-is-actually-artificial-intelligence-heres-what-you-need-to-know-196732) I have said it before and they have a decent explanation. They write “AI is broadly defined in two categories: artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) and artificial general intelligence (AGI). To date, AGI does not exist.” You see, I only look at AGI, the rest is some narrow niche for specific purpose. We are also given “Most of what we know as AI today has narrow intelligence – where a particular system addresses a particular problem. Unlike human intelligence, such narrow AI intelligence is effective only in the area in which it has been trained: fraud detection, facial recognition or social recommendations, for example” and there is an issue with this. People do not understand the narrow scope, they want to apply it almost everywhere and that is where people get into trouble, the data connected does not support the activity and adding this to a mobile means that it collects massive amounts of data, or it becomes less and less reliable, an issue I expect to see soon after it makes it into a Samsung phone. 

For AI to really work “it needs high-quality, unbiased data, and lots of it. Researchers building neural networks use the large data sets that have come about as society has digitised.” You see, the amount of data is merely a first issue, the fact that it is unbiassed data is a lot harder and when we see sales people cut corners, they will take any shortcut making the data no longer unbiassed and that is where it all falls apart.

So whilst the ‘speculators’ (read: losers) make Google lose value, the funny part is that when the Samsung connection falls down Google stands to up their customer base by a lot. Thousands of Samsung customers feeling as betrayed as I was in 1990 and they will seek another vendor which would make Huawei equally happy. 

ZDNet gives us “The threat of Bing taking Google’s spot on Samsung phones caused “panic” at Google, according to messages reviewed by The New York Times. Google’s contract with Samsung brings in an approximate $3 billion annual revenue. The company still has a chance to maintain its presence in Samsung phones, but it needs to move fast” I see two issues here, the first is that the NY Times is less and less of a dependable source, they have played too many games and as ‘their’ source’ might not be reliable, as such is the quote also less reliable. The second source is me (basically) they weren’t interested in my 5 billion revenue, as such why would they care about losing 3 billion more? For the most, there is an upside, when it falls down (an I personally believe it will) Samsung could be brought back on board but now it will cost them 5-6 billion. As such Samsung would have to be successful without Google Search for 3 years and it will cascade into a collapse setting, after that they will beg just to return to the Alphabet fold, which would also make this Microsoft’s 6th failure. My day is looking better already.

Am I so anti-Whatever?
No not really. When it is ready and when the systems are there AI will change the game and AGI is the only real AI to consider. As I stated before deeper machine learning is awesome and it has massive value, but the narrow setting needs to be respected and when you push it into something like Bing, it will go wrong and when it does it will not be noticed initially until it is much too late. And all this is beside the setting that some people will link the wrong parts and Samsung will end up putting its IP in ChatGPT and someone will ask a specific question that was never flagged and the IP will pour straight into public domain. That is the real danger for Samsung and in all this ChatGPT is free of blame and when certain things are found the entire setting needs to be uploaded into a new account. When we consider that a script with 65,000 lines will have up to 650 issues (or features, or bugs), how many will cause a cascade effect or information no one wanted, least of all the hardware owner? Oh, and that is when the writers were really good. Normally the numbers of acceptability are between 1300-2600, as such how many issues will rise and how long until too many patches will make the system unyielding? All questions that come to mind with an ANI system, because it is data driven and when we consider that the unbiassed data isn’t? What then? And that is before we align cultural issues. Korea, India, Japan and China are merely 4 of them and seeing that things never aligned in merely 4 nations, how many versions of data will be created to avoid collapse? As such I personally think that Google is not in panic mode. Perhaps Bard made them road-wise, perhaps not. 

I think 2024 will be a great Google year with or without Samsung and when Microsoft achieves disappointing yet another company its goose will be royally cooked on both sides of the goose no less. We have choices, we have options and we can mix them, but to let some fake AI make those choices for us is not anything at all, but feel free to learn that lesson the hard way.

I never liked Samsung for personal reasons, and I have been really happy with my android phone. I have had an Android phone for 13 years now and never regretted having one. I hope it stays that way.

Enjoy the day and don’t trust an AI to tell you the weather, that is what your eyesight can do better in the present and the foreseeable future.

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