Tag Archives: Strait of Hormuz

August 25, 2026 · 01:54

If his lips are moving

It was the first thing I considered. You see, I saw an article and it made my blood boil, but a few seconds later I was considering some of the options that this could have been enabled through ruses. So what gives?

The article that pushed me was ‘Trump says Canada wants ‘benefits’ of being US state after trade talks collapse’ (source: BBC) where we see “US President Donald Trump has said Canada wants “the benefits of being a state, without being one” after trade talks between the two countries collapsed late on Friday. The breakdown of negotiations triggered new 50% US tariffs on a range of Canadian goods. Trump also said American farmers had been charged “massive amounts of Tariffs” for years.” What I think happened is that Prime Minister Carney pulled the deal and he could have said “What is even the benefit of being in a partnership without having an actual partner?” Or something to that effect and as we see the Guardian giving us “Carney, whose willingness to stand up to Trump has made him popular in Canada, has said that “America has changed,” and that the two countries would not return to their old relationship. The Canadian public has also been incensed by US policy towards their country, particularly Trump’s comments about turning Canada into the 51st US state. A petition to expel the US ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, has collected about 248,000 signatures, accusing him of normalising the notion of the US annexing Canada.” As such we now see that a trade war is in effect between our friends in Canada and that place where idiots reside (a place between Canada and Mexico) and it is time that we openly support our brethren (sisters too) in Canada. 

And as the Guardian is also giving us ‘The lesson from Canada’s collapsed trade talks with the US: negotiation may be futile’ where we see “Breakdown shows Washington now prioritises its own interests over any semblance of shared economic ground”, which is weird as I have stated this for some time and the actions of ‘America First’ gives that same notion and the forced attempts of annexing Canada, Greenland, Venezuela and recently the claim ‘Trump says he views strait of Hormuz as ‘American territory’’ (source: the Guardian) almost 3 days ago, I’ll say that the setting of America First has taken a massive turn for the worse. And I say it is time for the leaders of the Commonwealth to come out clearly and loudly saying that they support Prime Minister Carney in every way possible. I saw options to put the screws onto President Trump by all the Commonwealth parties switching from the United States to Canada for delivery for as much as possible and if booze is so under attack through Canada (with almost 35 million people) consider what the Commonwealth could do with 2.7 billion and optional support of the EU, if we all cancel whatever booze contracts we have, the United States loses its alcohol empire, or merely sell it to the United States, which won’t hold up for long at present. And that is merely the beginning because other news (unconfirmed) is that places like Disney is in trouble. There were reports that Disney raised prices on several settings for the second time and people were ‘complaining’ that food is becoming too expensive, there were mentions that the tourists were bringing their own food and Disney had also shedded staff members and we see “Disney is executing multiple waves of layoffs in 2026, cutting hundreds to thousands of roles across major divisions like Marvel, Pixar, ESPN, and Lucasfilm as part of an ongoing cost-containment strategy” (source: Fox 4 Dallas) which implies that as tourism is in danger in the United States, things are considerably worse then I thought. The so called ‘everything is honky dory’ is a little less secure. As such the bullying tactic of President Trump makes a lot more sense now. I made several reports on the United States being almost broke and now I see that this is closer to the mark then even I considered. So when we see the quote in the Guardian “Jamieson Greer, the US trade representative, has said the US was compelled to act after a year of retaliatory measures by Canada. He told Fox & Friends Weekend: “We’ve said enough and so we’ve taken counter-measures. Our interest is in protecting American workers and protecting American supply chains.” Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, estimated that 40% of small Canadian exporters will be directly hit by the US tariffs, and that nearly one-third expect their revenues will drop by 50% or more as a result.” And whilst this dumbo named Greer keeps on making mention of ‘retaliatory measures’ can we please clearly define his BS by repeating that they started calling Canada the 51st state again and again and the Canadians were fed up with this and decided to shun American booze and goods. And as a Commonwealthian I fully support their actions and I believe it is mandatory for all Commonwealthians to come together and support Canada in any way we can, assistance from the EU would be appreciated in this. I think they have had enough of the bully in the White House and as such they might consider the very same settings I have considered. As tourism dies down, the economic impact on the United States goes from bad to worse. Still there is more, Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/8/22/iran-war-live-trump-says-tehran-not-ready-to-make-right-deal-to-end-war) gives us ‘Tehran says US sanctions ‘declaration of war’ on all nations’ where we see “US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has hailed the US’s oil and gas production as global energy remains strained due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. “American oil and gas workers have driven production to an all-time high, making the US the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas,” said Wright in a post on X. Earlier, Wright also claimed the US military helped ship more than 15 million barrels of oil and other products out of the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday this week.” Why is this important? Because the United States was reliant on ‘cheap oil from the Middle East to offset the sales and now the United States needs this oil a lot more than ever before, as such the oil revenue is down. This American Administration is all about the good news, not the counter balance of these events and that only strengthens the others to support Canada in these times. And whilst the Irish times (at https://www.irishtimes.com/world/canada/2026/08/23/we-got-attacked-canada-to-retaliate-after-trump-imposes-50-tariffs/) gives us ‘‘We got attacked’: Canada to retaliate after Trump imposes 50% tariffs’ with the text “Canada will impose tariffs on some US goods in retaliation for 50 per cent ‌levies on Canadian products, prime minister Mark Carney said on Saturday, after trade talks collapsed between the two neighbours.

The “dollar for dollar” tariffs on imports of US steel, electronics and other products, to take effect on September 8th, mark a further worsening of relations between the long-time allies and major trading partners. The two countries failed to reach a trade deal late on Friday, with each side blaming the other for derailing three days of intensive negotiations. The breakdown complicates the future of a US-Mexico-Canada free-trade pact.” As well as “Carney is one of the few global leaders to retaliate against US tariffs ‌and has pledged to forge new trade and military alliances, despite Canada’s dependence on the United States for nearly 70 per cent of its exports.

US trade representative Jamieson Greer called the breakdown “a missed opportunity for Canada to partner with the United States,” saying no new talks were planned with Canada.

“We’re moving forward with measures that respond to Canadian retaliation,” Greer told Fox News. “They’ve always had the best deal, and they still would have an even better deal, but they didn’t want that.”” I personally believe that Jamieson Greer is the kind of person we all need to take under a magnifying glass after President Trump loses the midterms and those who went along with this charade (like Ambassador Pete Hoekstra) and in all this, I reckon that the State Department of the United States will have a sweet time getting anyone to trust them in the near future. But all this seems to point towards the biggest default in human history, because when this comes to blows, whomever trusted this president to put money in a debt that is not seeing any resolution will likely lose that money and there is a chance that they had it insured (like the setting they had in 2004) but that implies that insurance firms will lose whatever they had and this also implies that the United States is a very unwelcoming place for a long time. But not to fret, there is still the EU, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Japan and a few other places, so there are options for plenty of people and whilst the United States lose more and more, we could also redirect advertising, because that market is generating over $1 trillion a year, but in that new setting, what were the big winners named Alphabet (Google), Meta, and Amazon capture over half of all global advertising spend is now going to new places. It could still involve them but now from the Commonwealth and the EU, likely taxed to a far degree, as such I saw markets that the United States could lose, in the size setting of $300,000,000 to $450,000,000 per year, as such the United States will amazingly likely not be able to pay next year interest. And should these players allow China to inter their settings, the damage merely increases for the United States. 

So I started this with an expression “If his lips are moving, he is lying” And what gives me that setting? Well, over 100 general assertions that the U.S. defeated Iran, at least 38 claims that a final deal or resolution was imminent, and numerous intermittent assertions that the military phase ended within the initial hours or weeks of the engagement gives me the first right and the press has not been setting that premise correctly, merely sitting on the sidelines, trying to cash in on the digital dollars and that is about to go sideways in a few ways. Still, there is an option where I am wrong, but I don’t think so, the news is getting out more and more and the parties who should have intervened never did, as such there are several sides ‘overlooked’ and that is where I push the buttons, so think of this what you will and feel free to disagree with me, but wasn’t the fact that the US is so set on their booze getting imported into Canada, whilst placing limitations on Canada’s sovereign right to pursue and sign trade agreements with other international countries wasn’t a decent giveaway? When things are that outspoken, there is decent evidence that the United States is broke beyond belief and the last round bell sounded a few days ago. But that is merely my view on the matter. Have a great day and I wish Canadians all the strength that they can muster in these hard times.

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August 4, 2026 · 00:34

Timelines of confusion

That is the setting, but before I go into this, lets recap a few articles. The first one was given to us by the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/02/trump-climbs-down-on-iran-strikes-after-saudi-alarm-and-threats-from-tehran) about a day ago we were given ‘Trump backs down on Iran strikes in expectation of ‘rapidly’ reaching a deal’ with the subtext “US president claims delay is also in response to requests from Iran and other countries in the region” with in addition “The deal would include the immediate and complete reopening of the strait and “an end to Iran’s nuclear threat”, he posted. It marked the latest climbdown from extravagant threats to pound the Islamic Republic in the months-long conflict.”

After that we get (several hours ago, at https://aje.news/mcmsi9) ‘Tehran says no current talks with US, Oman meetings ongoing’ with “Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says in regards to talks with the US, there are no plans to receive a delegation or send an Iranian one. Baghaei adds that a new Strait of Hormuz shipping route being discussed with Oman will be one path with entry and exit lanes.” As well as (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/3/trump-says-new-iran-negotiations-starting-what-we-know) ‘Trump says new Iran negotiations starting: What we know’ where we see “United States President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday that an agreement with Iran is imminent and new talks were set to begin on Monday. But at a news conference on Monday, an Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman said: “We are not going to host a delegation or be guests of a country during these days.””

These setting are giving me a speculative setting and the middle east is part of all this deception (by the United States) and it is speculative, I could very well be wrong. This is however the setting that I see and it is important to tell you this, because as I see it, the media is laden with what might be seen as inaccuracies all over the place. These is no way to tell whether this is politically inclined or even if the media is given all the parts they needed to have. There is too much confusion out there. So one more source was added and I now ad this, to give it to you. It is IranWire and I don’t believe it is correct and it is debatable what is correct and what is not. But that is what Iranians optionally read and that needs to be seen too.

The article is seen (at https://iranwire.com/en/features/155759/) where we are given ‘Is Iran Preparing for War With Saudi Arabia?’ We are given “Figures close to the Islamic Republic have asserted that “Saudi Arabia is the most significant potential target.” Furthermore, the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters warned that “companions of the United States will burn in the fires of war,” calling on Muslim nations to “reconsider their cooperation with the US.” His warning is directed squarely at Riyadh, which currently finds itself confronting the Islamic Republic and its non-state proxy network across multiple geopolitical fronts, having previously participated in military strikes targeting positions inside Iran in April.”

I am hereby calling out these lies. Saudi Arabia and the UAE never assisted or acted against Iran, Iran bombed and used drones to all the Arabian states and there was no reason to do this. They were doing it for an unknown reason (I’ll get to that) as well as ““A ground assault from Iraq in the north and Yemen in the south would finish Saudi Arabia off. Aside from its air power, which would be paralysed immediately once its airfields and air bases are targeted, Saudi Arabia has nothing else. Pakistan cannot offer meaningful assistance due to the lack of a shared land border.”” This implies that Iran is guiding Houthi terrorists to do the dirty works of Iran. It also shows that Houthi terrorists are now also operating from Iraq, whether Iraqi government forces are allowing this or that they are too incompetent to counter these assaults on Saudi Arabia remains to be seen.

So this was the time line I saw and I had already mentioned a few settings in previous blogs. So here is the speculation. The United States are about to lose whatever they have and it is in THEIR interest to see stabilization gone in the Arabian states and they are using Iran to be the play toy or their needs. I cannot make any claim to evidence, but I asked in the first eeek of march why Iran was attacking the UAE more than it was Israel. Israel was aiding the United States in all this, so Iran had a reason to attack Israel. But they attacked the UAE with a lot more drones. This never made sense, because the UAE and Saudi Arabia gave no permission for the United States to attack Iran via their territories. 

In all this I was baffled in why Iran was wasting ammunition and drones on countries that weren’t attacking them. I already had a few ideas at that time, but I had no evidence of any kind. I still don’t but when you see the lines from the United States where we see “United States President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday that an agreement with Iran is imminent and new talks were set to begin on Monday”, yet at present it is Monday 17:50 (Abu Dhabi time) and we see ‘Iran denies Trump claim that new talks will start Monday after he called off attacks’ (source: NBC). As such I have concluded that the initial thought I had yesterday when I stated “It is not enough that I succeed, all others must fail” is that what the United States is aiming for? Its biggest concern was that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE would propel forward and all these attacks on these nations have put a damper on their advances and It will take months to reset them. Is that what the United States are hoping for? But this is only possible if Iran cooperates here and Iran doesn’t like that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are making massive strides. It is possible, but it is massively speculative. I admit that and I have no evidence to support this. Now consider the clusterfuck the United States is involved in (as words go not a nice word, but it is used by the US Marines, so I grant the use of it). So as we count the settings, President Trump has claimed more than 40 times that the U.S. conflict with Iran was nearly over. All whilst I saw that Iran is still in talks with Oman about the strait of Hormuz and now Houthis both in Yemen and in Iraq are pushing for attacking ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. So, how exactly is all this won? I created solutions in the first week of march and it is now 6 months later. How is this in any way about a war? Why are refineries still pumping revenue for Iran? Why are distribution channels still operating? Did anyone in the pentagon (optionally ever) read the works of either Sun Tzu or General Carl von Clausewitz? If there is too much anti-China sentiments, they could have reverted to the lesser work of von Clausewitz. It becomes really simple. The timelines do not make sense. And I left my military post in 1982, so I might have unlearned a thing or two in 44 years. But I reckon that at present I know more on waging war than anyone in the Pentagon (I know, quite the statement, but that is what I see from over 40 declarations) and anyone who reads the messages should come to the same conclusion, even if you never served and your knowledge of armed forces is merely based on Stratego (a Dutch Jumbo Games board game). 

It irritates me that the media is not on top of all this, because both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are likely to be attacked again, there is no evidence of that, other that the IranWire article and the ‘text’ there is implying that actions are pending against Saudi Arabia. There is no way to hand any level of credibility there, but the chance is there and the acts that Houthi forces in Iraq are ready to act is there, the reliability of that is unknown to me. But with the settings we see, there are all kinds of issues and the fact that the media is glancing over this is too ridiculous for words.

I leave you with these thoughts. I cannot look at the US economy, because I have no idea whose data to trust. This US administration made all data debatable and suspicious. That is the reality of it all and the war sees to be playing in the cards of the United States, no matter what the cost for the United States is and that is actually a little scary. And I was not alone in this, Business Insider (at https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-mark-zandi-market-risk-economy-2026-8) gives us ‘A top economist says the Fed’s ‘opaque’ communication style is a serious risk to markets and the economy’ here we see ““If the Fed continues down this increasingly opaque path, a future meeting could trigger a serious market sell-off — putting the broader economy at risk,” Zandi wrote in a post on X on Sunday.” We get this from Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. So there is corroboration, but what he sees is not what I see (I am not claiming to see more, merely different parts and when someone like him says there are issues, I would be taking notice. Apart from all this, there is nothing more to say and I will leave it up to you to to see what is and what is not.

Have a great day today and if you are in Vancouver enjoy breakfast, when you are in Toronto, get ready for lunch, in Amsterdam enjoy coffee and in Abu Dhabi get ready for dinner. This all is making me hungry now, write more later.

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July 29, 2026 · 16:58

When good men go to war

That is what is reverberating in my mind. And I got this from ABC less then 3 hours ago. They are giving us ‘US thwarts Iran’s ‘surprise attack’ and launches strikes with Saudi Arabia against Iraq militias’ it was given to us (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-29/fighting-reignites-as-us-strikes-iran-backed-militants-in-iraq/106970590) and my initial (and later thoughts) were “Good for them” I have had enough of all these proxy settings and the fact that the IRGC (now apparently operating from Iraq) gives us “The US says it has carried out fresh air strikes in Iraq alongside Saudi Arabia, targeting Iran-backed militant groups after a wave of drone attacks on US forces. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) later said they fired several ballistic missiles at a US air base and a US military Central Command centre in Jordan, in what they described as a response to US actions against Iranian interests.” Whatever they say, it did not validate the direct attacks on Saudi Arabia using Houthi terrorists, it did not warrant the numerous attacks on the UAE and when the UAE joins the attacks, Iran Is truly done for, because at some point USA might not be able to continue, but Saudi Arabia and the UAE are next door, only small water separating them from Iran (aka the sea of Dammam). So whilst we are given a summary

  • The strikes were in response to more than 30 drone attacks directed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards over the past 72 hours, the US military said.
  • “The IRGC and its terrorist proxies must cease these attacks to avoid further US military response,” it said in a statement on Wednesday.
  • Saudi Arabia confirmed it carried out the strikes alongside the US, saying the action was in response to recent drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities.
  • Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said three oil tankers were “struck and stopped” after ignoring warnings in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.

As I saw is in the beginning of February it can now start, the closing of harbours, the destruction of railways and when these fall out of the equation, only the roads are relatively safe, but I have a solution for that too, not bombing using billions of dollars, but the more refined setting I have in mind taking out the trucks ad road at the same time and at that point Iran becomes a useless piece of junk sized at almost 650,000 square miles and why will it do then? It will cry like a little girl is my assumption on the matter. 

And as I see it, the nations of the world are out of patience with Iran, especially as fuel prices are taking another strike towards new heights. I reckon that Houthi terrorists settings will be dealt with next. That Is the process of terrorism as well. Saudi Arabia does not forget and whilst Houthi debates are settled the way they want it (bombing them for all its worth) we can see the deliberate setting that Houthis are facing then, because as I see it, they can now no longer hide in Djibouti and/or Eritrea. As I see it, these governments have a needed interest in stopping these attacks from happening from their terrains and they will sort out what they need to all on their own and I reckon that they prefer to be looking good towards the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and not really interested looking good towards a terrorist organisation. 

And in all this the setting of safety of Saudi Arabia is regained one step at a time. So whilst we were given “Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed they struck two Saudi ships as part of their campaign to disrupt the kingdom’s shipping.” And as they did this (to the best of my speculative knowledge) to appease Iranian interest, they now face not one, but at least two adversaries because the United States would want this political effect gan traction and it is highly likely that the USA will optionally also hit Houthi terrorist locations because that gets the work done and whilst the media is now ‘running’ towards a new front, the impact that the western media is now seen as too irrelevant to be of interest to nearly anyone, it would be the effect to come late to a party, so as that last guest (the western media) is now entering while desert is served (like in just desert) the opinion of all is not “How nice to see you” but a solemn “What kept you all this time” and I would personally like to hand the microphone to General Turki al-Maliki taking a much overdue jab at the western media on this. But that is merely my $0.0325 cent on the matter (that is $0.02 hit by devaluation) because as I see it, that delay has a larger setting.

So whilst SBS give us ‘Saudi Arabian forces join US in strikes on Iran-backed militants in Iraq’ we see that Al Jazeera gives us different news. You see, the headline read in Google gives us ‘Iran war live: US, Saudi forces attack Tehran-aligned groups in Iraq’ whilst the article gives us ‘US, Saudi forces attack Iraq; IRGC fires missiles at Jordan’

As such I wonder who else (optionally in Iraq is whistling Iranian music? Because the use of ‘Tehran-aligned groups in Iraq’ seems to be suspiciously specific. And as I see it, if Iran is expending into Iraqi territory, is a player like Kata’ib Hezbollah responsible for catering to the needs of the IRGC? It beckons thought as this implies that the IRGC is desperate to expend its allies to a larger degree and this comes at a price, making my prediction of hitting refineries, harbours and infrastructures 5 months ago a little more warranted, because all this will be costing Iran a pretty penny.

So whilst you can consider how right or how wrong I am, the truth of the matter is that as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is joining the USA in keeping Saudi Arabia safer the real stings are that Iraq and Yemen are facing serious repercussions on their decision to come in support of Iran against the safety or Saudi Arabia, it could become a very interesting week, because when they stop supporting Iran, Iran might actually feel boxed in enough to consider a few peace talks.

Have a great day all.

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July 16, 2026 · 17:37

Casual connection

In the last 24 hours I saw two articles, they might have some casual connection and I leave that up to you to decide. First up we get an article with the staged setting of ‘Why Muslims Will Suffer Most When The AI Bubble Bursts’ (at https://www.islamicfinanceguru.com/articles/ai-bubble-muslim-investors) the first thing going through my mind is that you need to get out before disaster strikes. Get out when the going remains optional, and I would personally phrase this setting that those ‘money diggers’ make claim that you are not a pussy, make sure that he is not tying his benefit to your welfare. Because those who need your money have their own agenda. So as I read “In the late 90s, everyone was piling into internet companies. The stock market was booming, and it felt like free money. Then in 2000, it imploded. Companies worth billions became worthless almost overnight, and an estimated 100 million everyday investors lost a combined $5 trillion. Now people are worried AI could be the next bubble. And if they’re right, Muslim investors could be hit the hardest, even though most of us don’t realize it yet. Here’s why, and what every Muslim investor should be doing right now to prepare.” With additional “Over the past few years, the stock market has been on an absolute tear, and almost all of it has been driven by a handful of companies: the Magnificent Seven, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla. All making big bets on AI. Share prices going up isn’t itself a problem. What makes people nervous is the valuation. Take Nvidia. It’s now one of the largest companies in the world, and investors are giving it a price-to-earnings ratio of around 50. That means at current earnings, it would take 50 years of profits to earn back what you paid for the stock today. That’s an enormous amount of faith in future growth. That faith might well be justified. These companies are genuinely transforming industries. But history tells us that when the story gets ahead of the fundamentals, eventually something snaps. We’re not saying it will, but it’s worth asking: what’s the most fragile part of this whole thing? What’s the single point of failure? Because there is one.” And there is one that beckons reading (the link is at the beginning) and I agree with him. But the one thing that I take from the rest of that story is ‘acknowledge the concentration risk’ there is a downside of that, when it goes, it goes almost spectacularly (the investors don’t think out is spectacular) but I have other things against this AI setting, because from my point of view all AI is Fake AI. (Read my other works for elaboration, merely go see Google and ask: 

Lawlordtobe + “AI” + “AI bubble”

You should get over a dozen articles bringing this out and it merely my personal setting, but I believe that is an almost pertaining truth in all this that no one wants to acknowledge. When you come to the end of that rainbow, which did not start at a pot of gold and does not end with a pot either, you see why I believe that this is coming to an end (and right quick). Don’t get me wrong, I believe in DML (Deeper Machine Learning) and LLM (Large Language Models) these are strong tools and a lot more will be coming from this. But it al all down to the knowledge of the programmer and it just isn’t AI, not even close. So I did not give the Muslim investor much rope. I am not Muslim and I have never been an investor. Not even close, I am not even an early adopter. So whilst we now see Sam Altman in quotes all over the internet from ‘Sam Altman: ‘It also takes a lot of energy to train a human’ — a staunch defense of the cost of AI training’, so if this was real (read: true) AI, what did he have to defend? Then there is ‘“Thought It Was Satire”: Sam Altman Takes Dig At Anthropic’s New Ad Amid Online Backlash’ where we are told that:

“Anthropic’s latest advertising campaign, “There’s Hope in Hard Questions”, was designed to show that the AI company is willing to confront difficult questions about artificial intelligence and its potential risks. Instead, the ad has sparked widespread criticism online, with many viewers describing its tone as unsettling, creepy and overly bleak.” 

As I see it, some people are starting to crying about the still missing ROI and that is not even getting close to the fold whilst some give us 

“AI Return on Investment (ROI) is highly debated and highly variable. While many companies report time savings and efficiency gains, a large percentage of executives struggle to see direct, bottom-line financial returns due to high infrastructure costs and a lack of proper workflow integration.” 

All whilst the ‘highly variable’ is driven towards a timeline which is (by some) decades away. As such some need to worry when they are given the image of a Cadillac, whilst they are buying an Edsel. This might not be completely accurate, but it is what I see. When the court cases are driven towards that the setting that “DMLA Submission to the US Copyright Office argues against rash “data mining laws.” They state that because a robust licensing market already exists, creators should not be forced to subsidize AI technology by allowing free text-and-data-mining (TDM) exemptions” and when you are at this point, you are likely to lose a massive bundle ofd your investment. All whilst the Tech Policy Press gives us that:

“A dedicated legal database known as the AI on Trial dataset has tracked at least 500 cases globally across 39 countries, encompassing intellectual property, privacy, discrimination, and platform regulation”

Sounds like a good place to keep your investment, because when these cases settle (I’m hopefully hoping for some coins from that equation) you are done with whatever you thought you had. But (there is always a but) there is an optional outcome and it was given to me at (https://maritime-executive.com/article/uae-plans-to-build-a-new-jebel-ali-to-bypass-strait-of-hormuz) by the maritime executive. With the headline ‘UAE Plans to Build a New Jebel Ali to Bypass Strait of Hormuz’ with the setting that UAE had left OPEC, they might be sitting pretty on some coins and that place might need investment. As oil is a commodity that the planet needs, there is every chance that your optional investment goes back from 50 years to up to 5 years with a decent spillage of coins coming your way. So when we read “The Financial Times has added to a number of reports that the UAE is planning to expand its port and freight-handling capacity on its East Coast, accessing the Gulf of Oman and bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The Financial Times says that DP World is planning not only to build an entirely new port on the Fujairah coast, but also to expand capacity at the existing Fujairah container terminal. It is not clear what coordination arrangements DP World has made with the existing Fujairah terminal, which is operated by the AD Ports Group under the brand name Fujairah Terminals, following the signing of a 35-year concession agreement in 2017 with Fujairah Ports, which in turn is controlled by the Fujairah Al Sharqi Royal Family.” It is my firm believe that these players would accept Muslim investment and that means the setting that you might come out as a winner, because this place outside of the Strait of Hormuz would give the UAE (read: ADNOC) give a larger setting of up to 5,000,000 barrels of oil per day with the small grocery customers like India, Australia, Indonesia, Japan and China. It feel (read: me is not being an investor) like an almost sure thing and that tends to breed opportunity. And whilst we are given “Plans are already afoot to speed the completion of a second crude pipeline to parallel the Habshan–Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), doubling capacity from 1.5 to 3 million barrels per day. Fujairah Ports also operates a bulk products terminal at Dibba, on the border with Oman’s Musandam Peninsula, and Dibba has also been slated for development and upgrade.” It might allow the UAE to double that doubled setting, which is personally vision, not fact based analyses. But in this, Muslims investors are likely to see another opportunity, they might move out of that Fake AI setting whilst the leaving is good. But don’t take my word for that, it is a mere view coming from academic and personal vision on IT and a personal view on where I see the world going and I have more than 500 reasons for my views and those 500 reasons are the most likely dampers on your return on investment. #JustSaying

So, have a great day today and I am on route to kill a few Metroids, because those critters are getting out of hand on my Nintendo Switch.

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July 13, 2026 · 10:15

Using the media in war

That has always ben the case, as early as the 1620s as Corantos. A first-hand battlefield datelines and updates on the war. It is a little bit disappointing as they were a stronger setting of what was to be than what the media gives us now in 2026 in the Iran settings. Headlines like ‘Iran bets Trump will blink first’ and ‘‘We’re beating them up’, Trump on fresh Iran strikes’ and lets not forget ‘U.S. insists Strait of Hormuz remains open despite Iran declaring it closed, as strikes escalate’ all less then three hours ago. So, what is the measure of a war? But I am sitting in a setting with a headline 6 hours ago. We were given ‘The Guardian view on Trump and Tehran: everyone loses when the US and Iran overplay their hands’ and I say firmly ‘No!’

You see, the media is part of this mess. When they decided to reject the evidence from Brigadier General Turki al-Maliki on the drones from the Houthi terrorists (supplied by Iran), which clearly showed that Iran was behind this all. As you ignored evidence of an attack on Aramco, whilst blatantly ignoring that Houthi forces did not have the ability to expertly drive drones 10 times into Aramco targets, simply ignoring that this required high knowledge of drone aviation, only found in a state operator like the IRGC. You pretty much tailored your own demise from September 14th, 2019 onwards showing others that you were so dependent on the digital dollar, that you catered to its infliction of whatever drove clicks best. 

This is a stage the media catered to and whilst we see other things evolve, they cater to what drives clicks. The media has lost its footing, its credibility and now they are catering to the populist voices. And in all this I might be wrong (my nautical knowledge is almost half a century old) we see “Under international law, Iran does not have the legal right to completely close or block the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, although it has used military force to heavily restrict and control traffic. The strait is governed by the regime of “transit passage” under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which guarantees that all civilian ships have the right of uninterrupted navigation” (source: Opinio Juris) but the larger setting is that any water has optionally two parties. 

The Straight of Hormuz borders Oman as well, as such there is a stretch that is Omanian territory, so in my naive setting I would say that the ships go via the Omanian part of the strait. I might be oversimplifying this, because Iran would have to attack Omanian waters and in that setting all parties including the GCC could attack Iran for violating their rights. I know I am missing a few settings, but this is what seems to be possible and if the media did their work, even if it is debunking my idea it might have been fine. But they did not did they?

So whilst the media seems to have dug its own Grave by adhering to proxy wars and for the benefit of access they might have silenced a few items (allegedly), we see an incomplete picture and we are thrusted towards headlines based on the old premise she said vs she said and as far as I can see this, this is all that is left to read. 

So what is the real deal? That is the question and in the meantime Iran does what it deserves best, wield the stick of terror over all the lands and I see that these warring parties are ignoring what gives Iran power to act, as such the destruction of their harbours their railroads and their refineries could have been a solution when I gave it 4 months ago. It almost seems like the United States doesn’t want to win, merely drag this setting along. Why?

Well that is all I have at the moment, as such you all have a great day today.

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May 21, 2026 · 00:00

I took offense

This happens, it happens to you and me and there is nothing wrong with that. In this case it was an article in the Middle East Eye (written by Andreas Krieg), Dr Andreas Krieg is a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, Royal College of Defence Studies and fellow at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies. He has spent more than ten years living, studying and working across the MENA region. As such he knows a lot more about defense than I am likely to ever will. But still I took offense. It was (at https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/how-iran-war-broke-ambitions-little-sparta) were we see ‘How the Iran war broke the ambitions of ‘Little Sparta’’ and we are given “The UAE must abandon the illusion of strategic exceptionalism, and rebuild its autonomy through a collective Gulf security order” it is a decent setting, all whilst at present we see “Countries like the UAE and Qatar are moving away from pursuing purely independent, exceptionalist foreign policies, recognizing that isolated states are highly vulnerable in modern multi-front conflicts” this is seen as the “Small State” Dilemma. I am on the fence here as I am a little out of my frame of mind. Whilst we are given “The past three months have exposed the friction between Abu Dhabi’s ambitions and geopolitical realities. Iran’s attacks on Gulf infrastructure have confronted Abu Dhabi with the dissonance between its self-perception as a middle power, and its structural vulnerability as a small state.” It is one view to have and I cannot say whether it correct or not. As such we are given that “Presidential adviser Anwar Gargash recently lashed out at neighbours and partners, posting on X (formerly Twitter): “The friend has turned into a mediator instead of being a steadfast ally and supporter.”” Whist the added “His post captures the frustration in Abu Dhabi over the state’s inability to use its leverage to rally neighbours and partners around a more aggressive stance towards Iran. In an article last month, Emirati commentator Tareq al-Otaiba denounced Arab solidarity and multilateralism for its inability to collectively deter Iranian aggression. A month earlier, his older brother, the UAE’s ambassador to Washington, Yousef al-Otaiba, announced in an op-ed Abu Dhabi’s readiness to join an “international initiative” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the UAE prepared to share the operational burden.” And these truths are that, they are truths, nothing more. You might say that this is all and you would be correct but when we see “Despite the UAE luring Russian money and oligarchs to its jurisdiction, Moscow did not come to Abu Dhabi’s defence. Beijing issued the familiar language of concern and stability. Washington reassured, but delivered very little in terms of deterrence.” It is here my offense started. Moscow is whatever Moscow wants to be and is in it for themselves, nothing new, then we get Beijing. I reckon that it is shy from any actions because it might cut itself in the fingers if they come out, but it is Washington and optionally Europe and the Commonwealth as well (these last two parties are my speculative addition) they all delivered very little as deterrence and that shows what friends the UAE has, it has none. Even though Washington was eager to claim the billions and throw it all aside for fake AI, no action are seen. As such I took offense and whilst I took actions the only way I know (as I have no military or diplomatic powers), I created optional IP and after I showed an idea for a canal, which is now surpassed by a pipeline and that might be the better option. Still, after the massive attacks from Iran, I handed my IP to the UAE, the first one was created in January 2019 in ‘The impact of insanity’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/01/20/the-impact-of-insanity/) where the IP would sink ships in the breakwater, closing harbours off for days, if not weeks or even months. The idea came from a Dutch bank robber who operated in the 70’s. As such I gave his idea new life. The one element I did not see was the time it would take for the ship to sink and if in case there was an inner hull I added a ring of C4, like a ribbon of prima cord (like off shore uses) and even if it would not open a hole, there would be several place where the inner hull would be punctured and the water would be coming in at a speed of several gallons per second. Then I went on creating IP to take out the rails of Iran, this would always be possible, but my way which I discussed in ‘With Ice please’ which I discussed (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/03/10/with-ice-please/) where I showed the idea to blow away the Rail Clips, holding the rails down. It can be done with little effort and the small explosives will do nothing to harm the rails, what happens is that the elements  holding down the rails will be removed with liquid nitrogen and a small explosion that would shatter these clips, do it in a corner, the train will not see anything wrong initially and as the rail gives way, the train will go bouncy bouncy down the hill and off the rails. It done correctly, several cargo trains will see this happening, reducing commerce for Iran and reducing the efficiency of their infrastructure. The elements that give offense was the fact that Andreas Krieg gave us that the UAE needs to be seen as a little Sparta. But as I see it, others that take offense of non-commitment and I for one created the IP that would enable the UAE to strike back. And I saw Iran as the danger that need not be around and I started to create options as early as 2019. I even had an idea to make their nuclear reactors useless, I did something, against apparently Moscow, Beijing, Washington and London that are all in it for themselves (as one would expect) but they had no problems selling fake AI settings for billions and I take offense to that, so I gave them optional solutions. And a I see it, it is a lot more than they are doing. I even crested the idea that one person could lead a massive drone attack, which came through the Iranian attack on Aramco, as such I gave the UAE (Saudi Arabia too) ‘Droning right along’ which I wrote on June 14th 2025, almost a year ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/06/14/droning-right-along/) I saw Iran as the danger it is and I created something for that, will it work? As I see it the China’s Chongqing drone show proves me right. My show will not be seen by a lot of people, but a dozen drones could be piloted by one person and the massive consequence for Iran is that they could lose refineries, airports and a few other places. And if you have half a dozen pilots, you could hit them all at once. Iran could say goodbye to whatever they hold on a near instant setting, it might take longer to make some instant noodles. As such whatever Andreas Krieg states, it merely creates offense as he says “All Iran needs to do to weaken the UAE strategically is to remind investors, insurers, shipping companies and expatriates that the Emirates is not an exception to the Gulf’s insecurity.” All I had to do is get even one of my IP to work correctly and it is goodbye Iran and I am willing to hand all this IP over to the UAE so that they can make it work. As such: “All I have to do, Is take away whatever Iran thinks they have. I cannot make the false claims President Trump does, because my ideas are not based on ‘beautiful big balls’ they are merely adaptations that were out there all along. They are all adaptations on ideas from WW2, with modern technology adaptations. Iran could lose it all and no billions are spent (Washington states that the Pentagon had an  estimated $29 billion directly), at best a billion is used to test the ideas and adapt the fabrication of these weapons, but the drones are already available, they merely need some programming adaption and then these drones are fitted with claymores, or a variation of them and that comes down to about $25K for the drones and the ‘packaging’ no billions were required. The package is dropped about 10 kilometer from the refinery and off they go. There are a few ways to go about it, but I am still considering that a MQ-9 Reaper could drop 2 packages with a abundant amount of cheap drones, as such tow refineries might be hit at the same time. As such, these investors might want to consider to bet against the UAE, there is every reason to consider that I could come up with a few more ideas to make Iran regret that they ever attacked the UAE, but as I see it and as I suspect that Andreas Krieg is seemingly aware of the strategy behind all the attacks on the gulf states, but I might be wrong in my assessment too, so there is that too. What I do know is that I have done more than any ‘proclaimer to be an UAE ally’ and I did it free of charge. So there!

As I see it, I might have made Anwar Gargash proud that there was at least one party willing to assist the UAE, even if that one was a mere tourist at best. And I do understand that even if I took offense, Andreas Krieg did nothing wrong. He did his job, but the article that he wrote came over massively wrong with me and perhaps that was his intent all along (even though he possibly tried to get someone more important to take notice of what he wrote). So have a great day all, I will try to create a few more obstacles for Iran if possible.

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May 7, 2026 · 00:55

Bewildered as such

I have been bewildered for some time, now I see ‘UAE comes under Iranian attacks for second consecutive day: Ministry’ (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/5/uae-intercepts-missiles-and-drones-for-second-day). I have been bewildered on this for some time, you see never mind how the relationship with Iran is, the UAE is still a Muslim nation, it never sought aggression with Iran, it never catered to the United States and as such it makes absolutely no sense to me to fire 549 ballistic missiles, 29 cruise missiles, and 2,260 drones. These attacks have targeted infrastructure and caused civilian injuries. This is by large the most, even their ‘ally’ Israel (yes, that was a joke) never faced that intense an attack. So when I see that they have had two days of additional attack, I am happy (and relieved) that I gave my military IP to the UAE (Saudi Arabia as well), so as Al Jazeera gives us “The escalation comes amid fears of a return to war between Iran and the US, after Washington launched a new initiative, dubbed “Project Freedom”, to guide vessels through the Strait of Hormuz starting on Monday. About a fifth of global energy exports pass through the narrow waterway. In retaliation for joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, Iranian forces have effectively taken control of the strait by attacking – or just threatening – vessels attempting to cross without Tehran’s permission. The move has triggered a global energy shock, pushing oil and gas prices to multi-year highs.” As well as “Tehran also launched a salvo of 15 missiles – most of them ballistic – towards the UAE on Monday – the first incident after the US-Iran ceasefire came into effect about four weeks ago. All were intercepted, Emirati authorities said, but a fire broke out in Fujairah, home to a key oil terminal. The facility has been critical during the war, handling about 1.7 million barrels per day – roughly half of the country’s export capacity – as it allows shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz via the Gulf of Oman. Three Indian nationals were injured in the incident, which India’s government described as “unacceptable”.” The only thought that makes sense (to the smallest extent) is that the UAE could bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but that is not enough, the idea that the UAE has such a western following is the fact that it has a diversified work setting. As I see it, the UAE is the best place for Iran to get global visibility, that is the best I can come up with and it is for that reason that Iran needs to be destroyed, completely and utterly. They have no wish to get any diplomacy working, they merely want to stall the games they play. It might be a sick view I have, but that is what I am coming up with. The only plus point I see is that now the UAE will see what their true friends are and it can adjust the next steps to better the position of the United Arab Emirates. No matter what they do next, it should be with true friends and real allies. That is merely my view on the matter. And as the needs for the UAE will increase in several directions, there is an opportunity for Google to increase its visibility in Abu Dhabi as from there towards more locations. IBM already preceded them and they are not alone. As I see it, there will be changes and the embassies in Abu Dhabi need to be secured. Personally I am not one to trust Microsoft with that, but a Google/IBM solution might work. And my reason? Well, someone gave us ‘Xbox wants to win you back by removing the Copilot AI it forced upon you last year’ only 7 hours ago and TechRadar gave us 3 hours ago ‘Microsoft has finally realized what most of us knew all along: nobody actually wanted Copilot on Xbox’, a corporation that is so self centered and does not listen to its customers, is not one I am willing to trust ever, but I already had me share of evidence 12 years ago. So that clicked. So, whilst some big tech players are willing to play chicken with the Humvee driving towards you loaded with a beer-keg filled with Nitroglycerine? I’m not (I am watching Vertical Limit, hence the reference). 

As I see it, the UAE needs a strong infrastructure and it requires the correct business partners. As such I am willing to roll the dice on IBM/Google to the standard basics protected. And even as I see all current AI as fake, there is no doubt that Gemini is superior to whatever OpenAI/ChatGPT has, as such some others lose traction. Should Microsoft be eliminated? Nah, tempting, but they did invest Infrastructure & AI between 2023 and the end of 2025, Microsoft will have invested over $7.3 billion, with an additional $7.9 billion planned from 2026 to 2029. As such they have a clear need for the UAE, as well as aiming to train 175,000 students, 39,000 teachers, and 120,000 government employees to drive regional AI adoption (in my view it might ‘accidentally’ be focussed on Microsoft products and not Gemini), but as I see it, that is their right, it is good business sense. But I also see common sense in business sense and as such getting Google towards Abu Dhabi makes sense too (IBM is already there). No matter how you slice it, there will be changes in the UAE. I am not Confused, there is no Mystification and whilst some will say that I am in the dark, or at a loss, I am not, I might be to some extent clueless on what some do and there might be have the smallest smidge of being in the dark but that comes from lacking intelligence on the setting there and it goes hand in hand by some keeping intelligence from us. I get the reason for lacking intelligence, lets face it, no one wants to admit that their product is rubbish and when we consider that nobody actually wanted Copilot on Xbox (allegedly a given fact) we need to wonder why Microsoft is so intent on pushing its premise on whatever they can (my interpretation of that). It fuels mistrust as I personally see it. As such there needs to be an alternative for Microsoft and they did this to themselves. 

You can agree or disagree, that is fine, but I personally believe that the UAE will need reliable business partners, especially in Abu Dhabi and I see that players like Zendesk might need to open offices in the UAE (particular in Dubai and Abu Dhabi) There is a larger need for service solutions to expand into the UAE, whatever hits the UAE next, at some point service points will be affected and its resolution can only be affectively resolved if all the players that need to be there are there. It is nice to ‘rely’ on cloud solutions, but the UAE is under attack and as such whatever  loud solution you use, it tends to lose against a Shahed-136, as such repairs and rollbacks come to mind and they require closer interaction, not a cloud connection to London (or Osaka) there are too many lose ends and that tends to be delimiting to any business. For now I seem to be focussing on alternative military solutions to slap Iran silly (they will be handed to the UAE as well), so have a great day, its 01:00 now and I still have a few hours of snoring ahead until brekkie is offered.

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April 30, 2026 · 14:17

The syrup of some

Deutsche Welle gave me a view, it is a optional view and I am using optional because I know much too little about this. The story (at https://www.dw.com/en/why-uaes-opec-exit-is-a-blow-to-saudi-arabia/a-76975354) gives us ‘Why UAE’s OPEC exit is a blow to Saudi Arabia’ it feels different from other views stating that the break up of OPEC is a win for President Trump, which is another view to have. But here we see “The United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC to pump more oil on its own terms. The break strips Saudi Arabia of a key partner and adds to growing uncertainty over the cartel’s future.” Yes, the UAE could pump more, but I don’t think it will lead to the uncertainty of the oil cartel (named Open and Opec+) You see, this large blip on all our radars will come with other settings. It will give the gulf states a claim for Iranian oil (repair costs) and that could be sold directly to China and Europe, they will exclude the United States as it is the cause of all this mess. At which point others will reject offers from Brent oil as it is American oil and there is no telling how deep the rejection goes and the weird part is that this might open up European talks with Iran as it reimburses damages to the gulf states (namely: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq) it is not the win Iran was looking for, but it is a win as they can make a case that the United States lost. Will it go that way? Time will tell.

It all reminded me towards an old feud (1985) where a colleague accused me from hoarding the ‘Rinse Appelstroop’ on my sandwich, all whilst the sandwich can only contain a mere part of the entire tub. So when we see “For years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has clashed with Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s most powerful member, over these quotas. The UAE has invested heavily to expand its oil industry and grow its market share, but OPEC limits have repeatedly held it back.” And it reminded me of the feud my co worker gave me over the syrup, almost like oil. I have no idea on where it is all set in the oil industry, but the idea to give into America is nothing less than a joke. They claimed that they have all the oil they need, so why would they need some handhold over oil? The one commercial thing I do know is that as the offer of oil increases the price goes down, as such the Middle East needs to take care of how they deal with this, because oil even as a commodity has a lifespan, once you get to the bottom of the barrel, the amount of oil you can still produce come close to that number shaped like an ‘O’ (hint: it is zero). 

So whilst I get that they all have needs, the idea that there might be an imbalanced amount towards one country is dangerous, but I get it, the UAE must do what is best for the UAE, Saudi Arabia must do what what is best for Saudi Arabia. But underneath all that we see “The UAE currently produces roughly 3.2 to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) under quotas but holds spare capacity of nearly 4.8 million bpd, Reuters news agency reported. Plans call for a hike in output toward 5 million bpd by next year.” And no one is looking at the amounts that might still be available for drilling. So what happens when that finishes? Everyone claps to attention but there is no clear vision for the future. And all the ‘influencers’ giving us the YouTube version of what comes tomorrow better find a good news source, because no one has an answer toward the ‘what now’ equation when the oils run out. 

So whilst we are getting “OPEC has already been under strain from repeated quota breaches by members such as Iraq and Nigeria, and from Russia’s inconsistent compliance within OPEC+. The UAE’s departure adds to that sense of fragmentation. In his analysis for Capital Economics,  Oxley warned that, in the medium term, if other producers with spare capacity “see the UAE successfully gaining flexibility and market share” outside OPEC, “others may follow.”” I understand that point of view, but I don’t think I can agree. The bully tactics of the United States will also give strength to Saudi Arabia as they might want to get issues resolved through Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Gabon and the Congo. There is definitely data that OPEC will be slightly weaker, but the oil that is gained in output will most likely go to China and the setting as of 9 April 2026, the UAE has intercepted and destroyed 537 ballistic missiles, 2,256 drone attacks and 26 cruise missiles fired from Iran, and that is mostly due to the acts of the United States. It is hard to hold them accountable as Iran attacked with the missiles, as such it is on Iran and as some state over 90% were allegedly aimed on civilian targets, as such the UAE demands reparations and so they should, but after that, should oil still be delivered to the instigator of these attacks? I don’t think it is that clear cut even as some state that Iran’s nuclear options were ludicrously limited (I don’t believe they were non-existent). So whilst the UAE could benefit from their withdrawal from OPEC, I see that the weak response from the gulf states towards the UAE is partially to blame for this. 

The conversation had some additional things (at https://theconversation.com/the-uae-is-leaving-the-opec-oil-cartel-what-could-that-mean-for-oil-prices-281734) here we see ‘The UAE is leaving the OPEC oil cartel. What could that mean for oil prices?’, we see here “the UAE is one of the world’s top ten oil producers. The country also has the capacity to increase its output by about one million barrels per day”, which amounts to 6 million barrels a week (one day of rest) and that gives us at least and additional half a billion dollars a week, something the UAE can likely use, especially if it goes towards a solution avoiding the Strait of Hormuz which I wrote about in ‘Sinking a dilemma’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/02/01/sinking-a-dilemma/) I have no idea if that is the path the UAE will sail, but that makes sense, the Strait and the issues with Iran are massively out of play and it also helps with the other gulf states as they (for a fee) use that solution and that is all before the massive attention the harbours of Abu Dhabi and Dubai will enjoy with all these loaded skippers who can now avoid Iranian waters. I only see upsides here, but that channel will require a serious amount cash, there is no doubt about that and it is not merely now, whenever Iran throws a tantrum, the strait becomes the bottleneck for all gulf states. Better to remove that problem completely.

So whilst we are given “OPEC’s influence on the oil price depends on coordinated changes in production. By agreeing to collectively limit, or to expand, the supply of oil in the market, OPEC can manipulate the price to meet its objectives. The UAE alone is the world’s eighth-largest oil producer, and accounts for about 4% of the world’s oil production.” As such I might imagine that the UAE has an issue with the imposed limits and that is before we consider if Das Island is under limits as well. As such it makes sense that the UAE ight want to leave OPEC, but let it be clear, Iran forced this on the rest of OPEC and as such their desperation will also amount to the wrath that these members have as their grip on maximized profits wane. 

Merely a small view on the setting and I get that not everyone agrees, not everyone is charmed by Appelstroop (a Dutch product). Have a great day.

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April 21, 2026 · 05:45

For a few Yuan more

So, yesterday I saw a MarketWatch article (at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-meaning-of-uae-reportedly-requesting-a-dollar-swap-line-6a40d630) where we see ‘The real meaning of UAE reportedly requesting a dollar swap line’, now don’t start running like a half baked cryotoboy to it’s mommy stating the world is ending (like we saw to weeks ago when some of them ran off to the airport), the byline gives us a clear “Economists believe the UAE is signaling it wants closer ties with allies, not a bailout” and I can agree with that. I have not seen seen any Emirati panic, or make bailout mentions. We are given “A report the United Arab Emirates requested a dollar swap line with the U.S. may be more a threat the Gulf nation could shift an alliance rather than a sign it’s about to run short of the American currency, observers said.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE central bank governor, Mohamed Balama,  requested a currency-swap line with the U.S. from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent while in Washington D.C. last week. The UAE is facing pressure from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though experts say its economy so far is strong enough to maintain a dollar peg.” It comes with the additional “Tim Ash, senior strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management, pointed out in a posting on X, that sovereigns do not request swap lines lightly. Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign relations agreed, also highlighting on X that he doesn’t believe UAE is in any emergency need of financial assistance, given it entered this conflict with huge holdings of U.S. Treasurys and significant forex reserves in excess of $250 billion. It’s important to note that the Emiratis have asked for a swap line and not a credit line.” And that is supported with graphics on ‘UAE forex reserves versus holdings of U.S. Treasurys, in billions of dollars.CFR’ and those numbers look good, even a non economist (like me) can see that the numbers of the UAE are good. Yet what we are also given is “Gave suggests, the UAE may be “sending a not-so-subtle message to the U.S., namely “leave the region and you will quickly be replaced by China.””

It might make sense and considering the damage that the United States Congress, a document produced on April 9th 2026, by Paul Kerr gives us “Iran’s nuclear program has for decades generated widespread concern that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons. According to past U.S. intelligence assessments, Tehran has the capacity to produce nuclear weapons at some point but has halted its nuclear weapons program and has not mastered all of the necessary technologies for building such weapons. The extent to which June 2025 and February 2026 Israeli and U.S. airstrikes affected Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons is unclear.” with the added “According to official U.S. assessments, Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003. This program’s goal, according to U.S. officials and the IAEA, was to develop an implosion-style nuclear weapon for Iran’s Shahab-3 ballistic missile. A 2025 public U.S. intelligence assessment stated that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon” and that the now-former Supreme Leader had “not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated on March 4, 2026, that the agency “never had information indicating that there was a structured systematic [Iranian] program to build or to construct a nuclear weapon.””

So, there was no real nuclear danger? And the Strait of Hormuz was open before this clambake started? It seems to me that the UAE (optionally with support of all other oil producing gulf nations) should give warning to not mess with their background, especially as it is roughly 7,000 miles away from Washington DC, as such no international waterways (connected) to the United States are in danger.

But in addition to the MarketWatch article, we see the Canadian DeepDive giving us (at https://thedeepdive.ca/uae-threatens-yuan-oil-trade-if-us-denies-dollar-lifeline-as-iran-war-drains-reserves/) ‘UAE Threatens Yuan Oil Trade if US Denies Dollar Lifeline as Iran War Drains Reserves’. The first part of opposition (by me) is that MarketWatch shows that the reserves are good. Basically DeepDive is not lying, reserves are seemingly being drained and that does not imply that the UAE reserves are in danger. But here we see “Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama brought the proposal to Federal Reserve officials and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington last week, the Journal reported. Abu Dhabi’s position, relayed through multiple officials: the war has strained its finances, dollar reserves could come under pressure, and if Washington does not provide a liquidity facility, the UAE may have little choice but to settle oil and gas trades in yuan or other non-dollar currencies. Emirati officials also told their US counterparts that Trump’s decision to attack Iran was what drew the country into the conflict to begin with. No formal application for a swap line has been submitted.” It is like the message Louis Gave, chief executive officer at Gavekal Research gave us, we merely get more information here. So like MarketWatch we see here “a bilateral currency swap with the Federal Reserve — would allow the UAE Central Bank to draw down dollars against dirhams at the prevailing exchange rate, effectively insuring against a hard-currency crunch without requiring emergency asset sales. 

The Fed currently holds standing arrangements of this kind with five central banks: the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank. Extending one to the UAE would mark a meaningful expansion of the Fed’s wartime financial commitments.” I am not enough of an economist to see the larger implications, but as I see it, President Trump started shitting in its economic backyard and now the people affected are saying (my of voicing it) “Stop this or we walk away from the US dollar in trade”, now you might think that I am overstating the ‘danger’ but consider that the US dollar is already under stress from a 39 trillion dollar debt (aka $39,000,000,000,000) and now when the Dollar trade offset is impacting trade other means of revenue would seemingly fall away, because it is never a simple setting (is it), and this would be the Home Run that China would love to see evolve. Do you really think this would be merely about oil? When oil starts, others will seek shelter and that is before others dump their $5 trillion (aka $5,000,000,000,000) in US treasury bonds. There have been noises that smaller amounts were ‘dismissed’ but the larger amounts are a worry for Wall Street, they are highly unlikely able to survive this pressure, as such the United States Administration better come up with a solution and quite fast. 

All this whilst Al Jazeera gives us ‘Iran war live: Uncertainty over talks, Trump insists deal to come ‘quickly’’ with the added “Iran says it has no plans to send negotiators to Pakistan for a new round of talks after the United States seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, President Donald Trump says US team, led by Vice President JD Vance, is on its way to Islamabad” So, one has no plans to send someone, whist the other states someone is on the way? How is that communicating? How is that any solution? That is the premise (given to us 14 minutes ago) that someone like China needs to dethrone the US dollar, so when China gives a solution in the next 24 hours, whilst President Trump starts commenting on his big beautiful solution for the world, the premise of the United States Dollar being removed from the oil trade becomes real. Do you really think that this is just about oil? Because this setting would require the better part of a decade to unwind. It is too early for me to say that the US dollar is out of this, but the other elements might make the pressures of the Dollar in the oil trade unmanageable. 

It is merely my point of view, no biggie. Have a great day, still 120 minutes until breakfast for me. I, hungry, all whilst it is lunchtime in Vancouver, what a bastards.

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April 8, 2026 · 12:57

What he said

That is the setting we are no longer dreading. The bully tactics are starting to fall on deaf ears and whilst we are to some degree used to the setting that President Trump is handing us:

Screenshot

Of course the timeline ended and ABC gives us ‘Iran war live updates: Donald Trump suspends bombing for two weeks, Iran pledges safe passage through Strait of Hormuz’ which happened 10 hours ago. But the setting is now a bigger thing. We see several media giving us that the Republicans are ‘siding’ behind the Democrats who want him impeached. That setting is not enough for the world. You see, the words “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” This would be considered an illegal order by the commander in chief of the USA armed forces and there is a rule about illegal orders (I might have forgotten that rule), seemingly one does never obey illegal orders. And now the world gets to see how useless the United States has become. It comes across like a rabbit dog with a leash that goes until the end of its garden, but seemingly no further. And that comes with a peppered invoice. As I see it (I could always be wrong) that Iran will now cry at the international courts of the Hague for being attacked without a clear war statement and the media has repeated those words often enough and as such there is every chance on Iran will claiming over 600 billion dollar in damages to land and the Iranian people. This will also invite the gulf nations to make claims of hundreds of billions of dollars for damages to their national revenue and damages to their land settings and they can get this in the first from Iran and in the second setting from the United States of America and Israel. Because no matter how Israel has a reason to do this, it was involved in an illegal war (as I see it) but that last part remains to be seen. 

So am I wrong? You see all these attacks by Iran were in the pst proxy wars through Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi forces, as such it will be about evidence. But as I see it, there will be enough evidence around to see that Iran will not get away Scott free. So as the world will see the damages and the evidence to be brought to court. The second tier in all this is the claims that some made that Iran will demand $2M per vessel per passing through the Strait of Hormuz, too many repeated those claims to be ignored, and there is an upside to this. 

You see, not all of it belongs to Iran, and at least several miles will be in the capture of Oman, so if these ships pay Oman $100K-$1M we already have a minimum 50% discount and none of it ends up In Iranian hands. I might be oversimplifying this, but when did anyone make a clear case for the Omanian side? And at that point if these ships are still attacked, NATO, Australia and India will have a clear case to come in to the rescue and Iran will not have a foot to stand on. Perhaps Oman will not resort to ‘blackmail’ and they will take goodwill from several nations for that in return, but that would be up to Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said who is the ruler of Oman (as I see it), as such, what options did anyone explore in the sultanate of Oman? I haven’t seen the media look into that direction in any way as far as I looked into it and these settings were clear for weeks. And yesterday (at https://quincyinst.org/2026/04/07/the-war-will-end-with-a-hormuz-toll-booth/) the The Quincy Institute stands for responsible statecraft gave the world ‘The War Will End With a Hormuz Toll Booth’ we see “The legal terrain is complicated but not insurmountable. Under international law, the entire width of the strait at its narrowest point consists of the overlapping territorial seas of Iran and Oman, with no high seas’ corridor between them. Iran cannot unilaterally charge a toll on ships hugging the Omani coastline. However, a bilateral Iran-Oman transit authority would eliminate the legal ambiguity. Oman gets a revenue stream and more strategic relevance.” I am still in favour of screwing over Iran because of the attacks they made on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but that is me, a little vindictive gremlin in most times. The fact that there is a clear part that is Oman is seemingly ignored, but maritime law is clearly pronounced on what is national waters, they tend to get a little murky on these bottlenecks, but still there is part of this that is Omanian and the media is clearly not looking at this part. Why not?

It might be a case for another day and it is important that the setting of Oman is clearly set here, because if whatever proceeds happens, it needs to have the proper legal stage to proceed. So whilst we might take a giggle to illegal orders and to bully tactics. The clear setting is that the illegal war (as I personally see it) was done on Iran, Iran closed the strait, none of this would have happened if Israel and the USA had not attacked Iran. It seems to be a simple assessment. 

If we are to proceed can wee please do so in a legal way (without posturing and ending civilizations)? It might make for good media, but the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague are all about prosecuting transgressors for genocide and war crimes. As it stands President Trump might be guilty of one and an alleged other crime. As such it might get flaky and weird in the Netherlands soon enough. By the way, if you are there to report on the setting, one of the best places to eat Herring near the ICC is here:

It is a Dutch delicacy (especially with unions) so go wild, I say.

Have a great day and consider the Omanian setting. Who reported on that in the past month?

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