Tag Archives: Strait of Hormuz

May 7, 2026 · 00:55

Bewildered as such

I have been bewildered for some time, now I see ‘UAE comes under Iranian attacks for second consecutive day: Ministry’ (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/5/uae-intercepts-missiles-and-drones-for-second-day). I have been bewildered on this for some time, you see never mind how the relationship with Iran is, the UAE is still a Muslim nation, it never sought aggression with Iran, it never catered to the United States and as such it makes absolutely no sense to me to fire 549 ballistic missiles, 29 cruise missiles, and 2,260 drones. These attacks have targeted infrastructure and caused civilian injuries. This is by large the most, even their ‘ally’ Israel (yes, that was a joke) never faced that intense an attack. So when I see that they have had two days of additional attack, I am happy (and relieved) that I gave my military IP to the UAE (Saudi Arabia as well), so as Al Jazeera gives us “The escalation comes amid fears of a return to war between Iran and the US, after Washington launched a new initiative, dubbed “Project Freedom”, to guide vessels through the Strait of Hormuz starting on Monday. About a fifth of global energy exports pass through the narrow waterway. In retaliation for joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, Iranian forces have effectively taken control of the strait by attacking – or just threatening – vessels attempting to cross without Tehran’s permission. The move has triggered a global energy shock, pushing oil and gas prices to multi-year highs.” As well as “Tehran also launched a salvo of 15 missiles – most of them ballistic – towards the UAE on Monday – the first incident after the US-Iran ceasefire came into effect about four weeks ago. All were intercepted, Emirati authorities said, but a fire broke out in Fujairah, home to a key oil terminal. The facility has been critical during the war, handling about 1.7 million barrels per day – roughly half of the country’s export capacity – as it allows shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz via the Gulf of Oman. Three Indian nationals were injured in the incident, which India’s government described as “unacceptable”.” The only thought that makes sense (to the smallest extent) is that the UAE could bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but that is not enough, the idea that the UAE has such a western following is the fact that it has a diversified work setting. As I see it, the UAE is the best place for Iran to get global visibility, that is the best I can come up with and it is for that reason that Iran needs to be destroyed, completely and utterly. They have no wish to get any diplomacy working, they merely want to stall the games they play. It might be a sick view I have, but that is what I am coming up with. The only plus point I see is that now the UAE will see what their true friends are and it can adjust the next steps to better the position of the United Arab Emirates. No matter what they do next, it should be with true friends and real allies. That is merely my view on the matter. And as the needs for the UAE will increase in several directions, there is an opportunity for Google to increase its visibility in Abu Dhabi as from there towards more locations. IBM already preceded them and they are not alone. As I see it, there will be changes and the embassies in Abu Dhabi need to be secured. Personally I am not one to trust Microsoft with that, but a Google/IBM solution might work. And my reason? Well, someone gave us ‘Xbox wants to win you back by removing the Copilot AI it forced upon you last year’ only 7 hours ago and TechRadar gave us 3 hours ago ‘Microsoft has finally realized what most of us knew all along: nobody actually wanted Copilot on Xbox’, a corporation that is so self centered and does not listen to its customers, is not one I am willing to trust ever, but I already had me share of evidence 12 years ago. So that clicked. So, whilst some big tech players are willing to play chicken with the Humvee driving towards you loaded with a beer-keg filled with Nitroglycerine? I’m not (I am watching Vertical Limit, hence the reference). 

As I see it, the UAE needs a strong infrastructure and it requires the correct business partners. As such I am willing to roll the dice on IBM/Google to the standard basics protected. And even as I see all current AI as fake, there is no doubt that Gemini is superior to whatever OpenAI/ChatGPT has, as such some others lose traction. Should Microsoft be eliminated? Nah, tempting, but they did invest Infrastructure & AI between 2023 and the end of 2025, Microsoft will have invested over $7.3 billion, with an additional $7.9 billion planned from 2026 to 2029. As such they have a clear need for the UAE, as well as aiming to train 175,000 students, 39,000 teachers, and 120,000 government employees to drive regional AI adoption (in my view it might ‘accidentally’ be focussed on Microsoft products and not Gemini), but as I see it, that is their right, it is good business sense. But I also see common sense in business sense and as such getting Google towards Abu Dhabi makes sense too (IBM is already there). No matter how you slice it, there will be changes in the UAE. I am not Confused, there is no Mystification and whilst some will say that I am in the dark, or at a loss, I am not, I might be to some extent clueless on what some do and there might be have the smallest smidge of being in the dark but that comes from lacking intelligence on the setting there and it goes hand in hand by some keeping intelligence from us. I get the reason for lacking intelligence, lets face it, no one wants to admit that their product is rubbish and when we consider that nobody actually wanted Copilot on Xbox (allegedly a given fact) we need to wonder why Microsoft is so intent on pushing its premise on whatever they can (my interpretation of that). It fuels mistrust as I personally see it. As such there needs to be an alternative for Microsoft and they did this to themselves. 

You can agree or disagree, that is fine, but I personally believe that the UAE will need reliable business partners, especially in Abu Dhabi and I see that players like Zendesk might need to open offices in the UAE (particular in Dubai and Abu Dhabi) There is a larger need for service solutions to expand into the UAE, whatever hits the UAE next, at some point service points will be affected and its resolution can only be affectively resolved if all the players that need to be there are there. It is nice to ‘rely’ on cloud solutions, but the UAE is under attack and as such whatever  loud solution you use, it tends to lose against a Shahed-136, as such repairs and rollbacks come to mind and they require closer interaction, not a cloud connection to London (or Osaka) there are too many lose ends and that tends to be delimiting to any business. For now I seem to be focussing on alternative military solutions to slap Iran silly (they will be handed to the UAE as well), so have a great day, its 01:00 now and I still have a few hours of snoring ahead until brekkie is offered.

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April 30, 2026 · 14:17

The syrup of some

Deutsche Welle gave me a view, it is a optional view and I am using optional because I know much too little about this. The story (at https://www.dw.com/en/why-uaes-opec-exit-is-a-blow-to-saudi-arabia/a-76975354) gives us ‘Why UAE’s OPEC exit is a blow to Saudi Arabia’ it feels different from other views stating that the break up of OPEC is a win for President Trump, which is another view to have. But here we see “The United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC to pump more oil on its own terms. The break strips Saudi Arabia of a key partner and adds to growing uncertainty over the cartel’s future.” Yes, the UAE could pump more, but I don’t think it will lead to the uncertainty of the oil cartel (named Open and Opec+) You see, this large blip on all our radars will come with other settings. It will give the gulf states a claim for Iranian oil (repair costs) and that could be sold directly to China and Europe, they will exclude the United States as it is the cause of all this mess. At which point others will reject offers from Brent oil as it is American oil and there is no telling how deep the rejection goes and the weird part is that this might open up European talks with Iran as it reimburses damages to the gulf states (namely: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq) it is not the win Iran was looking for, but it is a win as they can make a case that the United States lost. Will it go that way? Time will tell.

It all reminded me towards an old feud (1985) where a colleague accused me from hoarding the ‘Rinse Appelstroop’ on my sandwich, all whilst the sandwich can only contain a mere part of the entire tub. So when we see “For years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has clashed with Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s most powerful member, over these quotas. The UAE has invested heavily to expand its oil industry and grow its market share, but OPEC limits have repeatedly held it back.” And it reminded me of the feud my co worker gave me over the syrup, almost like oil. I have no idea on where it is all set in the oil industry, but the idea to give into America is nothing less than a joke. They claimed that they have all the oil they need, so why would they need some handhold over oil? The one commercial thing I do know is that as the offer of oil increases the price goes down, as such the Middle East needs to take care of how they deal with this, because oil even as a commodity has a lifespan, once you get to the bottom of the barrel, the amount of oil you can still produce come close to that number shaped like an ‘O’ (hint: it is zero). 

So whilst I get that they all have needs, the idea that there might be an imbalanced amount towards one country is dangerous, but I get it, the UAE must do what is best for the UAE, Saudi Arabia must do what what is best for Saudi Arabia. But underneath all that we see “The UAE currently produces roughly 3.2 to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) under quotas but holds spare capacity of nearly 4.8 million bpd, Reuters news agency reported. Plans call for a hike in output toward 5 million bpd by next year.” And no one is looking at the amounts that might still be available for drilling. So what happens when that finishes? Everyone claps to attention but there is no clear vision for the future. And all the ‘influencers’ giving us the YouTube version of what comes tomorrow better find a good news source, because no one has an answer toward the ‘what now’ equation when the oils run out. 

So whilst we are getting “OPEC has already been under strain from repeated quota breaches by members such as Iraq and Nigeria, and from Russia’s inconsistent compliance within OPEC+. The UAE’s departure adds to that sense of fragmentation. In his analysis for Capital Economics,  Oxley warned that, in the medium term, if other producers with spare capacity “see the UAE successfully gaining flexibility and market share” outside OPEC, “others may follow.”” I understand that point of view, but I don’t think I can agree. The bully tactics of the United States will also give strength to Saudi Arabia as they might want to get issues resolved through Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Gabon and the Congo. There is definitely data that OPEC will be slightly weaker, but the oil that is gained in output will most likely go to China and the setting as of 9 April 2026, the UAE has intercepted and destroyed 537 ballistic missiles, 2,256 drone attacks and 26 cruise missiles fired from Iran, and that is mostly due to the acts of the United States. It is hard to hold them accountable as Iran attacked with the missiles, as such it is on Iran and as some state over 90% were allegedly aimed on civilian targets, as such the UAE demands reparations and so they should, but after that, should oil still be delivered to the instigator of these attacks? I don’t think it is that clear cut even as some state that Iran’s nuclear options were ludicrously limited (I don’t believe they were non-existent). So whilst the UAE could benefit from their withdrawal from OPEC, I see that the weak response from the gulf states towards the UAE is partially to blame for this. 

The conversation had some additional things (at https://theconversation.com/the-uae-is-leaving-the-opec-oil-cartel-what-could-that-mean-for-oil-prices-281734) here we see ‘The UAE is leaving the OPEC oil cartel. What could that mean for oil prices?’, we see here “the UAE is one of the world’s top ten oil producers. The country also has the capacity to increase its output by about one million barrels per day”, which amounts to 6 million barrels a week (one day of rest) and that gives us at least and additional half a billion dollars a week, something the UAE can likely use, especially if it goes towards a solution avoiding the Strait of Hormuz which I wrote about in ‘Sinking a dilemma’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/02/01/sinking-a-dilemma/) I have no idea if that is the path the UAE will sail, but that makes sense, the Strait and the issues with Iran are massively out of play and it also helps with the other gulf states as they (for a fee) use that solution and that is all before the massive attention the harbours of Abu Dhabi and Dubai will enjoy with all these loaded skippers who can now avoid Iranian waters. I only see upsides here, but that channel will require a serious amount cash, there is no doubt about that and it is not merely now, whenever Iran throws a tantrum, the strait becomes the bottleneck for all gulf states. Better to remove that problem completely.

So whilst we are given “OPEC’s influence on the oil price depends on coordinated changes in production. By agreeing to collectively limit, or to expand, the supply of oil in the market, OPEC can manipulate the price to meet its objectives. The UAE alone is the world’s eighth-largest oil producer, and accounts for about 4% of the world’s oil production.” As such I might imagine that the UAE has an issue with the imposed limits and that is before we consider if Das Island is under limits as well. As such it makes sense that the UAE ight want to leave OPEC, but let it be clear, Iran forced this on the rest of OPEC and as such their desperation will also amount to the wrath that these members have as their grip on maximized profits wane. 

Merely a small view on the setting and I get that not everyone agrees, not everyone is charmed by Appelstroop (a Dutch product). Have a great day.

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April 21, 2026 · 05:45

For a few Yuan more

So, yesterday I saw a MarketWatch article (at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-meaning-of-uae-reportedly-requesting-a-dollar-swap-line-6a40d630) where we see ‘The real meaning of UAE reportedly requesting a dollar swap line’, now don’t start running like a half baked cryotoboy to it’s mommy stating the world is ending (like we saw to weeks ago when some of them ran off to the airport), the byline gives us a clear “Economists believe the UAE is signaling it wants closer ties with allies, not a bailout” and I can agree with that. I have not seen seen any Emirati panic, or make bailout mentions. We are given “A report the United Arab Emirates requested a dollar swap line with the U.S. may be more a threat the Gulf nation could shift an alliance rather than a sign it’s about to run short of the American currency, observers said.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE central bank governor, Mohamed Balama,  requested a currency-swap line with the U.S. from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent while in Washington D.C. last week. The UAE is facing pressure from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though experts say its economy so far is strong enough to maintain a dollar peg.” It comes with the additional “Tim Ash, senior strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management, pointed out in a posting on X, that sovereigns do not request swap lines lightly. Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign relations agreed, also highlighting on X that he doesn’t believe UAE is in any emergency need of financial assistance, given it entered this conflict with huge holdings of U.S. Treasurys and significant forex reserves in excess of $250 billion. It’s important to note that the Emiratis have asked for a swap line and not a credit line.” And that is supported with graphics on ‘UAE forex reserves versus holdings of U.S. Treasurys, in billions of dollars.CFR’ and those numbers look good, even a non economist (like me) can see that the numbers of the UAE are good. Yet what we are also given is “Gave suggests, the UAE may be “sending a not-so-subtle message to the U.S., namely “leave the region and you will quickly be replaced by China.””

It might make sense and considering the damage that the United States Congress, a document produced on April 9th 2026, by Paul Kerr gives us “Iran’s nuclear program has for decades generated widespread concern that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons. According to past U.S. intelligence assessments, Tehran has the capacity to produce nuclear weapons at some point but has halted its nuclear weapons program and has not mastered all of the necessary technologies for building such weapons. The extent to which June 2025 and February 2026 Israeli and U.S. airstrikes affected Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons is unclear.” with the added “According to official U.S. assessments, Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003. This program’s goal, according to U.S. officials and the IAEA, was to develop an implosion-style nuclear weapon for Iran’s Shahab-3 ballistic missile. A 2025 public U.S. intelligence assessment stated that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon” and that the now-former Supreme Leader had “not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated on March 4, 2026, that the agency “never had information indicating that there was a structured systematic [Iranian] program to build or to construct a nuclear weapon.””

So, there was no real nuclear danger? And the Strait of Hormuz was open before this clambake started? It seems to me that the UAE (optionally with support of all other oil producing gulf nations) should give warning to not mess with their background, especially as it is roughly 7,000 miles away from Washington DC, as such no international waterways (connected) to the United States are in danger.

But in addition to the MarketWatch article, we see the Canadian DeepDive giving us (at https://thedeepdive.ca/uae-threatens-yuan-oil-trade-if-us-denies-dollar-lifeline-as-iran-war-drains-reserves/) ‘UAE Threatens Yuan Oil Trade if US Denies Dollar Lifeline as Iran War Drains Reserves’. The first part of opposition (by me) is that MarketWatch shows that the reserves are good. Basically DeepDive is not lying, reserves are seemingly being drained and that does not imply that the UAE reserves are in danger. But here we see “Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama brought the proposal to Federal Reserve officials and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington last week, the Journal reported. Abu Dhabi’s position, relayed through multiple officials: the war has strained its finances, dollar reserves could come under pressure, and if Washington does not provide a liquidity facility, the UAE may have little choice but to settle oil and gas trades in yuan or other non-dollar currencies. Emirati officials also told their US counterparts that Trump’s decision to attack Iran was what drew the country into the conflict to begin with. No formal application for a swap line has been submitted.” It is like the message Louis Gave, chief executive officer at Gavekal Research gave us, we merely get more information here. So like MarketWatch we see here “a bilateral currency swap with the Federal Reserve — would allow the UAE Central Bank to draw down dollars against dirhams at the prevailing exchange rate, effectively insuring against a hard-currency crunch without requiring emergency asset sales. 

The Fed currently holds standing arrangements of this kind with five central banks: the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank. Extending one to the UAE would mark a meaningful expansion of the Fed’s wartime financial commitments.” I am not enough of an economist to see the larger implications, but as I see it, President Trump started shitting in its economic backyard and now the people affected are saying (my of voicing it) “Stop this or we walk away from the US dollar in trade”, now you might think that I am overstating the ‘danger’ but consider that the US dollar is already under stress from a 39 trillion dollar debt (aka $39,000,000,000,000) and now when the Dollar trade offset is impacting trade other means of revenue would seemingly fall away, because it is never a simple setting (is it), and this would be the Home Run that China would love to see evolve. Do you really think this would be merely about oil? When oil starts, others will seek shelter and that is before others dump their $5 trillion (aka $5,000,000,000,000) in US treasury bonds. There have been noises that smaller amounts were ‘dismissed’ but the larger amounts are a worry for Wall Street, they are highly unlikely able to survive this pressure, as such the United States Administration better come up with a solution and quite fast. 

All this whilst Al Jazeera gives us ‘Iran war live: Uncertainty over talks, Trump insists deal to come ‘quickly’’ with the added “Iran says it has no plans to send negotiators to Pakistan for a new round of talks after the United States seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, President Donald Trump says US team, led by Vice President JD Vance, is on its way to Islamabad” So, one has no plans to send someone, whist the other states someone is on the way? How is that communicating? How is that any solution? That is the premise (given to us 14 minutes ago) that someone like China needs to dethrone the US dollar, so when China gives a solution in the next 24 hours, whilst President Trump starts commenting on his big beautiful solution for the world, the premise of the United States Dollar being removed from the oil trade becomes real. Do you really think that this is just about oil? Because this setting would require the better part of a decade to unwind. It is too early for me to say that the US dollar is out of this, but the other elements might make the pressures of the Dollar in the oil trade unmanageable. 

It is merely my point of view, no biggie. Have a great day, still 120 minutes until breakfast for me. I, hungry, all whilst it is lunchtime in Vancouver, what a bastards.

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April 8, 2026 · 12:57

What he said

That is the setting we are no longer dreading. The bully tactics are starting to fall on deaf ears and whilst we are to some degree used to the setting that President Trump is handing us:

Screenshot

Of course the timeline ended and ABC gives us ‘Iran war live updates: Donald Trump suspends bombing for two weeks, Iran pledges safe passage through Strait of Hormuz’ which happened 10 hours ago. But the setting is now a bigger thing. We see several media giving us that the Republicans are ‘siding’ behind the Democrats who want him impeached. That setting is not enough for the world. You see, the words “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” This would be considered an illegal order by the commander in chief of the USA armed forces and there is a rule about illegal orders (I might have forgotten that rule), seemingly one does never obey illegal orders. And now the world gets to see how useless the United States has become. It comes across like a rabbit dog with a leash that goes until the end of its garden, but seemingly no further. And that comes with a peppered invoice. As I see it (I could always be wrong) that Iran will now cry at the international courts of the Hague for being attacked without a clear war statement and the media has repeated those words often enough and as such there is every chance on Iran will claiming over 600 billion dollar in damages to land and the Iranian people. This will also invite the gulf nations to make claims of hundreds of billions of dollars for damages to their national revenue and damages to their land settings and they can get this in the first from Iran and in the second setting from the United States of America and Israel. Because no matter how Israel has a reason to do this, it was involved in an illegal war (as I see it) but that last part remains to be seen. 

So am I wrong? You see all these attacks by Iran were in the pst proxy wars through Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi forces, as such it will be about evidence. But as I see it, there will be enough evidence around to see that Iran will not get away Scott free. So as the world will see the damages and the evidence to be brought to court. The second tier in all this is the claims that some made that Iran will demand $2M per vessel per passing through the Strait of Hormuz, too many repeated those claims to be ignored, and there is an upside to this. 

You see, not all of it belongs to Iran, and at least several miles will be in the capture of Oman, so if these ships pay Oman $100K-$1M we already have a minimum 50% discount and none of it ends up In Iranian hands. I might be oversimplifying this, but when did anyone make a clear case for the Omanian side? And at that point if these ships are still attacked, NATO, Australia and India will have a clear case to come in to the rescue and Iran will not have a foot to stand on. Perhaps Oman will not resort to ‘blackmail’ and they will take goodwill from several nations for that in return, but that would be up to Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said who is the ruler of Oman (as I see it), as such, what options did anyone explore in the sultanate of Oman? I haven’t seen the media look into that direction in any way as far as I looked into it and these settings were clear for weeks. And yesterday (at https://quincyinst.org/2026/04/07/the-war-will-end-with-a-hormuz-toll-booth/) the The Quincy Institute stands for responsible statecraft gave the world ‘The War Will End With a Hormuz Toll Booth’ we see “The legal terrain is complicated but not insurmountable. Under international law, the entire width of the strait at its narrowest point consists of the overlapping territorial seas of Iran and Oman, with no high seas’ corridor between them. Iran cannot unilaterally charge a toll on ships hugging the Omani coastline. However, a bilateral Iran-Oman transit authority would eliminate the legal ambiguity. Oman gets a revenue stream and more strategic relevance.” I am still in favour of screwing over Iran because of the attacks they made on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but that is me, a little vindictive gremlin in most times. The fact that there is a clear part that is Oman is seemingly ignored, but maritime law is clearly pronounced on what is national waters, they tend to get a little murky on these bottlenecks, but still there is part of this that is Omanian and the media is clearly not looking at this part. Why not?

It might be a case for another day and it is important that the setting of Oman is clearly set here, because if whatever proceeds happens, it needs to have the proper legal stage to proceed. So whilst we might take a giggle to illegal orders and to bully tactics. The clear setting is that the illegal war (as I personally see it) was done on Iran, Iran closed the strait, none of this would have happened if Israel and the USA had not attacked Iran. It seems to be a simple assessment. 

If we are to proceed can wee please do so in a legal way (without posturing and ending civilizations)? It might make for good media, but the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague are all about prosecuting transgressors for genocide and war crimes. As it stands President Trump might be guilty of one and an alleged other crime. As such it might get flaky and weird in the Netherlands soon enough. By the way, if you are there to report on the setting, one of the best places to eat Herring near the ICC is here:

It is a Dutch delicacy (especially with unions) so go wild, I say.

Have a great day and consider the Omanian setting. Who reported on that in the past month?

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April 6, 2026 · 22:10

Where we go next

That is an important question, because the next stage is any setting can be set in two switches. The one that affects you directly and the the one that does not affect you. We then get the affected switch that has a direct consequence and merely a derived one. So when we get Al Jazeera who gives us ‘Tehran rejects Trump’s Hormuz deadline’ mere hours ago, these switches go into overdrive. Because now we get BBC telling us 5 hours ago ‘Trump issues expletive-laden threat to Iran over Hormuz Strait blockage’ where we learn “US President Donald Trump has published an expletive-laden post on social media in which he threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges if it failed to meet his Tuesday deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping. He repeated an earlier threat to unleash “hell” but told US media there was a “good chance” of a deal being reached with Tehran. Iran mocked his ultimatum, dismissing it as “helpless, nervous and stupid”.” And we then get ABC giving us 13 hours ago ‘Iran briefing with Matthew Doran: Threats tell us more about Trump’s frustration than anything else’ where we see “Donald Trump has issued a new deadline of Tuesday for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping traffic, without restriction. In an expletive-laden post on social media, he said bridges and power plants would be destroyed if the regime in Tehran didn’t comply”, in this we have “issued a new deadline”, which is what people do who cannot follow through on threats are a separate issue. I cannot say what issue, because I am still on that horse named bankrupt and the only setting that makes sense would have been bombing near immediately. The fact that we get timeline stretching is another setting that influences it all. But 3 minutes ago Al Jazeera gives us ‘Pakistan says it is engaged in diplomacy amidst ‘egos’ and ‘distrust’’, I personally believe that Pakistan needs to get involved to safe face with both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, but they are right in one part. Whatever the United States gives us is flawed if not, an outright ‘miscommunication’. ‘So whilst we all see the ‘tirades’ President Trump gives us all we deny, looking in the corner where nobody wants us too look. Add to that all the generals who got fired (apparently 8 in total) a setting that shifts a few lines and the derived consequence to the switches I mentioned at the start by them.

Whatever is taken from a convoluted timeline that we see now seems to be the flimflam orchestration which only reaffirms my thoughts that the United States is on its last energy and when that runs out, the hostilities begin. Do you really believe that President Trump will admit to being out of funds? I reckon that we better reenforce the defence of Canada, because as I see it, the United States is likely to get 65,000 troops as reenforcement. So suddenly I sound a little less crazy don’t I? And it comes at a time when CUSMA is under review, the Hill gives us “Canada and Mexico have suffered the ire of Trump, ranging from blanket tariffs to threats of annexation and invasion. As a result, economic policy uncertainty is at historical highs in Canada, while in Mexico, the devaluation of the peso and a 10-25 per cent U.S. tariff on many Mexican goods has hit the economy hard. Beneath the headlines are more muted negotiations over policy choices on matters of tariff exemption and content requirements for a range of sectors. While automobile manufacturing and steel steal the headlines, the critical minerals and energy sector is now at centre stage in the CUSMA review.” The setting is ‘pre-arranged’ as it is the United States that is in a crunch, not Canada or Mexico and it is the United States that requires critical minerals. And in that setting both Mexico and Canada are the strong players, even whilst we are given “economic policy uncertainty is at historical highs in Canada” all whilst Canada is making new headways in the world with the Middle East, Europe and Asia the new stages of economic strength. Not policy uncertainty. As I see it, there are more settings in play. 

There is a setting under the surface that screams misalignment. I personally think that the United States is playing bluff poker with a “dead man’s hand” all whilst his opponents Iran, Europe and Canada knows what he is holding. I think this is the best analogy I can come up with. So when the shouting and bully tactics end, the United States is holding the cards they have and they are not good. So they either bluff their way into everyone not playing, or they will win. Even at this setting Canada needs a mere three two’s to win the hand and that might be the weakest setting it needs. No one has a clue what Mexico has, but its catering to the shortages of Cuba gives them a few short term advantages. So whatever the United States is proposing in this setting will have a few set backs. The first what the Venezuelan failure brought and the second is the 6 week failure that Iran is bringing to the table. I reckon that they might have a claim of a few hundred billion to the table of the International courts of The Hague. No matter how you slice this, it will be seen as an illegal war. No matter whatever the US administration calls it (they called it not a war) and in that setting it is the courts that will have a field day (and those lawyers making the good cash) and all of this comes out of the near empty coffers of the United States. So whilst we see all this, a mere two days ago we are given “Fox News’ Bill Hemmer cut off President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser when he tried to blame former President Joe Biden for high gas prices amid the Iran war. Oil prices have surged as Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway in the Middle East that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil. The national average cost of gas has exceeded $4 a gallon in the U.S. as Americans bear the brunt of Trump’s war against Iran.” So is this the path of this US administration? Blame the previous administration? 

And I apologise in advance of jumping over these hurdles (articles) like a horse on steroids. But it gives us a larger setting that is over all the images. The media are pretty good of merely looking at one part, hoping the people doesn’t see the larger image. It reminds me of the person showing is the image of a worm and we think ‘Oh, goody’ but the image becomes a little weird when we zoom out, only to realise that we were looking at the tail of a rat and the ones manipulating the images are all about misdirecting our interest whilst we should be focusing on rat extermination. 

So whilst I might be wrong to focus on a broke United States of America, it is where the exposed data leads me. And whilst the United States tells the world it is doing great, we need to realise that things are bad. Consider that last week we were given “According to March 2026 data, the US labor market showed remarkable strength with 178,000 jobs added” and whilst we see a few days later “Oracle has laid off approximately 30,000 employees, representing about 19% of its global workforce”  all whilst we are also given “Since the start of 2026, Meta, Autodesk, Salesforce, Workday, Google, Pinterest, Block and other firms have announced layoffs” so how great is the employment setting of the United States? In all this it is merely another element towards the broke setting of the United States, all whilst the media is no help in giving us what we would need to give ourselves a neutral view on the matter. A setting that this US Administration is using (read: abusing) to get the populist vote, but things really are not that rosy at present for the current administration. I reckon that the expected filtering on the speculated ‘deleting of bad news’ in California will aid the economic downturn that the United States is currently facing. 

The ice is slippery and not enough to bare anyones weight (especially mine) but as the media is not doing its jobs, I have no choice but to speculate with the (incomplete) data I have and this is the conclusion I come to. The United States is broke, I have said so before, but the evidence is now becoming malleable, which it should not, I agree with people opposing that thought. Yet the images of President Trump going all out like the proverbial mad dog with his threats

All whilst people focus on the threat and not on the stage surrounding that threat and it goes way beyond Iran. 

So have a great day and consider the thoughts I am leaving you with.

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March 28, 2026 · 02:56

Facting a check

I find myself in this setting. A few days ago, I remember that President Trump said that the Iranian missiles were taken care of and in light of the 2000 drones and missiles fired at the UAE it sounded plausible. So the Deutsche Welle gave us “Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu say that Iran’s missile capacity is “destroyed” and “degraded,” yet Iran still strikes. How many missiles and drones remain, and how quickly can Iran rebuild its arsenal?” Which came with ‘How well armed is Iran, and can it replenish missiles?’ I was ahead of that by designing a new IP to take care of the roads, I started with crazy glue, but I changed this to small pellets with a 10 seconds delay. Based on the original setting it was a small pellet about 5mm in size with crazy glue around the core in the outer shell and whilst trucks drove over them the 10 seconds delay would enable the solution to be ‘grabbed’ by several trucks and in the Iranian ‘wilderness’ a truck without tires gets stopped right quick and no help is expected to come for hours. So whilst these trucks are out in the open and no help is coming, you get missiles without a clue, trucks without tracks and you can fill in the rest. So I was feeling pretty happy that my 2.0 solution seemed to be on a roll so to say.

But now, only an hour ago we are given by Reuters ‘Exclusive: U.S. can only confirm about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal destroyed, sources say’ (article behind paywall) this means that Iran can keep on firing its missiles into the UAE and Saudi Arabia. As such I am happy that I gave them the IP to take care of their harbours and railways, and now of course my 2.0 solution to trucking. So, this gives us the light wondering if President Trump has the ability to speak the truth, because we get exaggeration after exaggeration and there is no stopping this man as he is might be seen as the first president that has a failed fact check list that humbles a New York Phonebook for its amount of pages.

And whilst the Wall Street Journal gives us ‘Trump Tells Aides He Wants Speedy End to Iran War’ where we are given “President Trump has told associates in recent days that he wants to avoid a protracted war in Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an end in the coming weeks.” So, what is his idea of a speedy end? The United States is now in week 4 of the Iranian clambake, it is ‘halting’ 10 days with CNN giving us “US President Donald Trump has for a second time extended his deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – or face its power plants being “obliterated.” The status of the talks remains unclear, with both sides giving mixed signals. Iran has expressed deep distrust toward Washington, while Trump is growing frustrated with the pace of progress. And on the ground, the war, which has killed thousands across the Middle East since it began nearly four weeks ago, shows no signs of diminishing.” All whilst CNBC gives us “The U.S. is preparing to send thousands more troops to the Middle East, prompting speculation about a ground attack on Iran amid conflicting accounts of peace talks. The Pentagon is reportedly preparing to send about 3,000 troops from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, alongside two Marine Expeditionary Units, to assist military operations in Iran.” All whist BBC News gives us that “Pentagon denies report that US considering sending 10,000 troops to Middle East” Now, I get that armies ‘wallow’ in misinformation, so that is fair as they do not want their enemy to know which way is up. As such I am all for that level of misinformation and it is according to the writings of Sun Tzu (the art of war), but there is a massive missing level of fact checks on a few levels and I reckon we should know what was not destroyed, especially when the enemy knows what was not destroyed. But I could be grasping at straws here. 

The larger setting is that there is too much out of bounds and that also goes into the failing credibility of the US administration, and as I see it, they cannot deal with too much loss there. Especially as they are losing more allies they ever had and at present it only has Israel as an ally left. At present the ‘calculus’ setting as the United States as an ally is giving Israel as 71%, and in that list, the lowest is Japan at 63%, after that it goes down fast, at the top is Canada claiming the United States as an ally with 46%, Australia at 38% and more below, with the United States calling the United States an ally for 1%. (Source: PEW Research), now, this is not the most recent research, but the setting of this should scare the United States government into springing into action, because before 2025 Canada was its top ally and now Canada is resentful of the United States and its tourism numbers are in the basement. Forbes gave us that “As of early 2026, Canadian travel to the U.S. has seen 13 consecutive months of declines.” And in this economy as it stands, this is really bad. 

So what do these two have to do with one another?

Fair question. There is a setting that the armies can only continue when the money comes rolling in and that is not happening, the US economy is largely losing on tourism, all whilst the Financial Times gives us (at https://www.ft.com/content/15117219-c1e1-4da8-866b-817b75643c18) “The costs of Trump’s war are staggering. The most consequential is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused global oil prices to rise at the fastest rate since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The average gasoline price in the US is now $3.98 — nearly $1 higher than just a month ago. For the average household, the pain at the pump could add up to nearly $750 in extra costs this year.” Take that number, add to that the amount of people that are hurt though tourism, manufacturing and services and take into consideration the number offers that JP Morgan gave us last October and the cost of warfare is rearing its ugly head. Add to that the amount of fact checks that are getting a failing grade and this mess is near complete.

So whilst the Financial Times also gives us “Higher prices on everything from groceries to furniture to clothes will tear a hole in family budgets at a time when more Americans already report skipping meals, delaying medical care, or dipping into their retirement savings to make ends meet. The response from Trump’s top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, was that consumer pain caused by the Iran war is “the last of our concerns right now”.” I personally think that Kevin Hassett is seemingly on the wrong medication at present, consumer pain goes through everything and Sun Tzu’s The Art of War actually advises avoiding harm to civilians and promoting their goodwill. This is not happening now (as far as I can see) and this has been a truth for over 2500 years. So as I see it, Kevin Hassett better take a renewed look at what is happening at present, because he gets to eat his own words when this so called war is still in effect in 3 weeks, because at that point the breaking point of the people will have been surpassed by a lot and that (speculative) rating of United States calling the United States an ally decreases to 0% and as I see it, no nation ever faced that setting before. There is a new setting coming up (and I don’t like it) there is now a chance that the United States might face another civil war, because when the people lose whatever they have and face more and more hardship the bulk of its population (now assessed at 342,000,000) cannot be controlled by 1,300,000 troops and there is every chance that many will walk out of their units to stand by their family. This is what this administration seemingly achieved and that is the harsh view they need to face. 

So, am I wrong? 
This is also a fair question, because no one is looking at this, but I believe that this speculative view I have will gain traction in the next two weeks and I would be happy to be wrong, but the checks and balances that need to be in place aren’t there and the larger group of the media is no longer credible, so you have to figure it out. Have a great day today.

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March 27, 2026 · 08:16

The bellows of a mad man

That was the thought I had this morning. You see, ABC gives us an hour ago ‘Trump singles out Australia as he lashes allies on Iran war support’ which I took personally as I am Australian. The story (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-27/donald-trump-says-australia-was-not-great-help-in-iran-war/106500752) where we see “The US president says he was “surprised” by Australia’s refusal to help the US secure the Strait of Hormuz, while again lashing out at NATO allies for their inaction. He claimed Iran was “begging” to make a deal and would face its “worst nightmare” if it didn’t agree to America’s 15-point ceasefire proposal.” This puzzled me, because on March 6th had stated that the UK ‘join wars after we’ve already won’, so why does he need help? Then he proclaims that “Iran was “begging” to make a deal”, as such it seems that no help is required. On other business, this year April fools day (April 1st) will be cancelled as President trump made every day seems like a joke (a bad one). So why does he need help and this is stuff he gave the world, so what gives?

And just a minute ago (actually 60 seconds ago), the Guardian gives us “Trump extends deadline to strike Iran energy sites Donald Trump has said he will extend his pause on his threat to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure for 10 days until 6 April, claiming that the request came from Tehran.

In a post on Truth Social, the US president claimed talks are going “very well” and repeated his attacks on the “fake news media” for reporting to the contrary (Iran has also reported to the contrary). Originally, Trump threatened last Saturday to would strike Iranian energy infrastructure if Tehran did not reopen the strait of Hormuz. Then, on Monday he said he would pause his threat for five days (until Friday), citing “very good and productive conversations” with Iran on ending the war (which Tehran dismissed as “fake news” designed to “manipulate” the oil markets). So, he’s now pushing that deadline back, again.” So, there is nothing in play? Whilst 18 minutes ago we were given “Strikes near Iran nuclear plant could trigger ‘major radiological accident’, warns IAEA chief The head of the UN nuclear watchdog has expressed “deep concern” over recent military strikes near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant – and warned that any damage to the operating facility could cause a “major radiological accident affecting a large area in Iran and beyond”.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi reiterated his call for “maximum restraint” to avoid the risk of a nuclear accident. The most recent reported strike took place on Tuesday night, when the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said a projectile had struck the grounds of the nuclear power plant. The IAEA previously confirmed a strike on 17 March. No damage to the plant was reported in either incident.” Which sounded odd, as the war was already won. Funny enough I had IP that could take care of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. I wrote it in 2021, on December 14th to be more exact. I did so in ‘Keeping my promise, part 1.’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/12/14/keeping-my-promise-part-1/), I even made some ‘civil’ IP available later that month to aid in the deployment and no explosives would be required. I admit that in this setting (you know, all the bombings) security would be increased. So I reckon that implementing it now might become a problem, but in stead of bombing it, my speculative mind turned the reaction into ‘kind of’ a bomb. I don’t like (or agree) with nuclear explosives, but as I saw it, I could turn all that energy back onto itself. It hasn’t been tested as there is a lack of ‘volunteering’ reactors, but to do this to Iranian and Russian reactors is OK with me (they might object though). The setting is however a little more complicated though. As we are given the words of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi, no one seems to be asking the question how much nuclear material does Iran actually have and how pure is this stuff, is it reactor grade of military grade? Seems like a basic question to me, even I as a non-nuclear physicist know this. 

So whilst we then take tally, we need to ascertain how much the United States has won the war, not only because he already needs $200,000,000,000, but because the Strait of Hormuz is closed and whilst (apparently) Iran is begging for a deal, we hear nothing like that from most of the media. So who did President Trump talk to, or was he talking into a mirror? And as I placed my IP online (making out freeware) I understand that I never get wealthy on this, the idea that some might just put things online (and rely on the goodness of some) I wonder where this winning streak is coming from and how delusional the governing branch of the United States has become. 

So, who is the mad man? President Trump or me? I merely state my ideas in a calm voice, he goes out on a rampage against anyone not worshipping him at the mere sight of him. That is how I see it and considering the entire Iran setting, you might agree. He has bombed Iran (with Israel) and whilst we see influencers and fake media telling is that Saudi Arabia and the UAE want to go ‘all in’ I have a few reservations against these reports. I reckon that it becomes an actual fact when we see this in the Arab News, Khaleej Times and/or Al Arabiya. At this point those are the only news sources I am willing to trust on Arabic settings. There is too much noise in all this and whilst I am exploring new IP that might give Iran a headache and hand to over to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. There is is a lull in my life. The blessed feeling of a temporary interval of quiet in my mind. I know it is trying to work things out, so I let it. It will alert me to any new ‘misgivings’ of alternate use of IP I  might be detecting in the corners of my eyes.

So have a great day to day. My plan? To optionally watch Sleepy Hollow or Donny Darko on 4K, but then I have always tried to enjoy the simple pleasures of life. Oh, and it just occurred to me, should those lying influencers be made persona non grata? They call it “self expression on the freedom of speech” lying and misrepresenting the facts to gain traction in the following you gain is still deplorable and the UAE might want to consider making these people persona-non-grata. So as this blows over, they are denied entry to the one place they all want to be, because that is going to be the reality of things. Seems like a simple setting to me. Find the evidence and deny them access and Saudi Arabia might want to go the same way. Have a good one.

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March 25, 2026 · 11:21

The price of war

That is something that is on everyones mind. It isn’t always voiced as much, but it is there. From the increased price of oil, the increasing of groceries or the impeding absence of pay for the TSA. They all refer to it as one, but in fact it is the other.

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy, allegedly said “Trump is suspending sanctions on Iran and Russia, which will put over $15 billion in their treasuries to help them fund the wars against us. It’s stunning. We have never ever seen this level of war incompetence in American history.” I am using allegedly here, because I am not sure where he said it, the quote was passed to me. I had heard things of a similar nature in the last few days, but I cannot say if it is real, or if people are merely quoting each other. But it is one view and the lack of communication that the United States is releasing does not bode well. And beside that a mere 4 hours ago, we were given ‘Donald Trump says Iran sent US ‘big present’ as Pentagon readies thousands more troops for Middle East’ by ABC (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-25/iran-war-trump-to-send-thousands-more-troops-to-middle-east/106493972) where we see “Donald Trump says the United States is in negotiations with Iran to end the war as the Pentagon reportedly prepares to deploy thousands more troops to the Middle East. The US president said senior members of his cabinet were in talks with Iranian officials, who he said had agreed to “never have a nuclear weapon”.” We then get ““I’m not going to tell you what the present is, but it was a very significant prize.” He added that the mystery gift was related to the Strait of Hormuz — the critical choke point at the centre of the conflict through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes.” It is my believe that if you hand a present, it is shown to the world, if not, it is merely heresy (aka bullshit), so are their boots on the ground coming in Iran? Are there actual peace talks? All questions that are not met by any kind of tangible evidence and the media is not asking the hard questions. 

I believe (aka speculation) that America is now so broke that it cannot pay for some if its bills and we see the beginning of a United States kind of Ponzi scheme. It is paying some bills and not others, those are (speculatively) paid next month. One such setting is the TSA, they apparently have not been paid since Valentine day. And as I see it, the media is not putting their eyes on this. Why not? So whilst we are given “TSA agents are working without pay because a partial government shutdown has halted their paychecks. As of March 17, 2026, this disruption is causing long security lines at airports due to increased call-outs and officers quitting during the busy spring break travel season.” And as TSA agents are considered “essential” workers, meaning they must continue to work without immediate compensation. So how does this compute? It does not. As I personally see it, the too broke too function setting is now in play and it makes sense that President Trump went after Canada (aka 51st state), Greenland (annexing it) whilst pissing of Europe and Denmark and after that Venezuela and whilst the oil is ‘worthless’ in the immediate setting and now it is up to Iran to capitulate their oil, which the United States can use. So, is my presumption just some blabber as it fits the situation? I have been writing about the impeding bankruptcy of the United States for almost 10 years. So am I wrong? I could be, because the patterns match the situation does not mean I am right, but there are more signs all around us that seemingly proves me right. Here I rely on ‘seemingly’ as there is a setting of experiencing apophenia, a person who sees patterns that aren’t there and I am clever enough to recognise this situation. I have seen it enough times in others, to realise that I am in such a premise as well. 

So, is it experiencing apophenia, or is it patternicity, or “the human tendency to perceive meaningful patterns, connections, or intentionality in random or meaningless data” either could be true, or I might be on to something. Normally the media is an option, but for the last decade it has been chasing digital dollars as well as relying on creating flames to keep the click puppets active. None of this gives the media more credibility and as such we are in a difficult spot. We might see what is, but those who should know are not doing their jobs because it doesn’t align with their business needs. Their business needs now come first and that is also the price of war. Whatever they need, is what others seemingly allow them to get. An almost vicious circle with no clear premise, no clear borders and a fluidic stage. Almost like setting the stage for acrobats and letting clowns stage the field, all whilst the stage master announces the person as Bello Nock. But when you were aligned to see acrobats, are you short changed, or are you given additional entertainment. When those lines become blurry, those behind the stage master see their field clear. I feel that this is the setting we are in now and when the United States is paying all bills (like the TSA) and no immediate bills are left, there would be the chance that I am completely wrong. But is that the case, or has the world moved on from the setting that John Maynard Keynes left us and are we in a much more novel stage that people like me cannot comprehend because I never learned to be an economist?

It remains a valid question, I feel that I am right, but is it real? Am I experiencing apophenia, or is there a stage of patternicity in play? And is this true, or are the ringmasters in play to make sure that the larger population cannot distinguish between the three.

Have a great day and don’t forget to feed the dolphins, because they will thank you for all the fish and you won’t know why.

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March 19, 2026 · 13:12

Say what, when?

That is a statement we are familiar with. We get things wrong. You, me, people we know. But the setting that Al Jazeera gives us (at https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/18/top-us-spy-accused-of-omitting-iran-intel-that-contradicts-trump) is different. The setting that is given us is ‘Top US spy accused of omitting Iran intel that contradicts Trump’ a spymaster (yes, I am laughing at this too) should not be allowed to give us anything like “US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has been accused of altering her Senate testimony on Iran, omitting details that contradict President Trump’s claim that the country posed an imminent threat.” You see, as a person of ‘direct interpretation of intelligence’ you are in a position that if you cannot say what you mean, you can never mean what you say. That is the direct involvement of Intelligence and as such we can deduce that America is more of a joke than anyone has been considering for some time. And this is not to the audience, as stated this is towards the people ‘steering’ that comedy stage. Altered intelligence was offered (as said) towards the US senate. That is a more ludicrous setting to say in the least. 

And it gets to be worse we get ‘US counterterrorism chief resigns over Iran war’ from Defense One (at https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2026/03/counterterrorism-center-head-resigns-over-iran-war/412171/) where we are given “The head of the National Counterterrorism Center resigned from his post Tuesday over the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. “I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby,” Joe Kent, the head of the center, wrote in a letter to President Donald Trump.” As such we now get a new kettle of fish. I personally believe that the setting of “due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby” is additional dishonest. What it gives me is (beside a weird taste in my mouth) is that the setting that I have been giving for some time that America is too broke to matter, that this administration will steal whatever they can to get the revenue they need to pay interest payments. That could also result in the International courts in The Hague and the United Nations giving the United States a written summons to adjust or be made irrelevant. I think this is a much better resolution than Rubio telling the world that the United States decides on International law than the world does (a little sloppy explanation, but it suffices), like we see the how the United States are setting the setting for Cuba now. A setting that is merely muddling the pool. As I personally see it, it is a way to get Russia involved so that the United States can cry like little bitches that they are under attack from Russia, and Europe much act in its defence. 

So as we are now given a new state through Reuters as we are given ‘Exclusive: US weighs military reinforcements as Iran war enters possible new phase’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-weighs-military-reinforcements-iran-war-enters-possible-new-phase-2026-03-18/) a mere two hours ago. We see here “President Donald Trump’s administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the U.S. military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against Iran, said a U.S. official and three people familiar with the matter. The deployments could help provide Trump with additional options as he weighs expanding U.S. operations, with the Iran war well into its third week.” But this has come AFTER Tulsi Gabbard has been accused of “altering her Senate testimony on Iran, omitting details that contradict President Trump’s claim that the country posed an imminent threat.” So the question becomes is Tulsi Gabbard the decoy to hide the financial setting of the United States, or is there more in play and that is something that the minute by minute logs will carry to the top of the limelight as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is approached by Iran and the Gulf states for financial appeasement because of the aggressive actions of the United States (and Israel). And do not think that this is out of the realm of possibilities. The United States (through President Trump) and its lackeys made statements like ‘Just for Joy’ and ‘no quester and no mercy’ all settings that does not fare well in the articles of war and beside the point that the United States never gave a writ through the declaration of war makes this an almost slam dunk for Iran. We can be against Iran for all we like (I personally am) but we adhere to the law and there Iran (the Gulf States too) have a valid claim in a setting of musical chairs the Gulf States against Iran and Iran against the United States and Israel. I tend to give the hand of adjustment to Israel, but is there an official declaration of war against Iran? Specifics matter in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and I get that, I am all for the law (even if it does not make sense at times) and the media is too some level at fault there as they have been omitting information at times because it didn’t ‘play well’ with its audience and as such there is a larger omission to deal with. If you doubt this, that is fair, bit tell me which international newspapers dealt with the setting that Defense One gave us in the setting that Joe Kent, the head of the National Counterterrorism Center. Who else had this in their intelligence summary? As some say, if you cannot say what you mean, you can never mean what you say and as it stands (as I see it), people like Tulsi Gabbard cannot hide behind episodes of expressive aphasia, so whilst we get to “The Trump administration has also discussed options to send ground forces to Iran’s Kharg Island, the hub for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, the three people familiar with the matter and three U.S. officials said. One of the officials said such an operation would be very risky. Iran has the ability to reach the island with missiles and drones.” We get to another setting in all this. Why send troops when it has been ‘bombed back into the stone age’? What is the need to put boots on the ground there? The Strait of Hormuz has more issues and troops there have seemingly no valid interest. It merely shows that the United States want to allegedly siphon off there what it can and that does not serve any purpose but their impeding invoices. But I might be wrong here.

The setting is that the media and through that parties don’t react the way they are supposed to, António Guterres is definitely one of them. When did he clearly speak out in favour of international law? Perhaps he did and the media merely ignored it. Too many questions and the fact that European leaders are ignoring Washington DC is perhaps the only clear setting we currently see. 

As I see it, the entire Iranian setting is about to be heralded the largest shit show the world has ever seen and I reckon the media will get their digital dollars out of that fine setting for a long time to come.

Have an optional great day, it’s almost Friyay. 

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March 17, 2026 · 18:32

Where is the trust?

That is most of the time the setting, so as ABC gives us (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-17/middle-east-live-updates-march-17-2026/106462358) “A tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile while anchored near the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, US President Donald Trump turned his ire on European allies who he claimed “weren’t that enthusiastic” about helping the US secure the passage. The threat of Iranian missiles and drones targeting oil tankers in the strait has effectively closed the shipping channel, amid the country’s conflict with the US and Israel.” With the added ‘Rockets and drones fired at US Embassy in Baghdad’ an hour ago. Consider that President Trump gave us (on march 8th, Politico) ‘Trump says Starmer seeking to join Iran war ‘after we’ve already won’’ so, that was 9 days ago? What changed? Then yesterday, the Guardian gives us (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/16/iran-war-live-updates-news-oil-trump-hormuz-dubai-airport-israel-targets) “As Donald Trump expresses frustration with countries declining to send warships to reopen the strait of Hormuz, the response remains muted among those he directly called upon.” And this happened a mere 4 hours ago. Where are the vessels of the United States? Where are their minesweepers? Simple questions and it defies knowledge why this is not front and centre everywhere. So when the Sydney Morning Herald adds spice to the setting (at https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/with-10-damning-words-pete-hegseth-says-the-quiet-part-out-loud-20260314-p5oafr.html) with ‘With 10 damning words, Pete Hegseth says the quiet part out loud’ where we see “US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth believes the media has not been sufficiently effusive about the success of the American military operation against Iran.

He had just finished speaking about the massive damage inflicted upon the regime in Tehran – its leadership, its missile stocks, its navy, its weapons infrastructure – when he turned his attention to the Pentagon press pack.” Now, I am willing to accept that I have not been part of any defence department for 43 years. I can assure you that a certain clarity is required in communication (from the defence side) and whilst I feel ready to blame the press on several matters, they are massively without blame here. The March 8th setting was the first damning setting. Then as I yesterday lighted on the ‘Just for fun’ setting that President Trump gave us and whilst the tactical setting that Kharg Island provides a sea port for the export of up to 90% of Iran’s oil products, as well as supplying storage for up to 30 million barrels. Bombing the hell out of it might have been essential, but it is a mere export point. There are 10 refineries doing the bidding of capturing oil and whilst I was able to device methods of stopping those settings, the clear message is to bomb those 10 locations to really put pressure on Iran. So when were they done? No, As I personally see it, President Trump what’s that oil this is the clear setting that is tactically seen and now that 2,500-5,000 boots are getting on the ground, that setting becomes the pressure point that Iran can put on the United States. So whilst I created IP to close harbours and disable trains, stopping the bulk of oil transits, it was merely one stage that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE could do to take pressure away from themselves and as such I gave Saudi Arabia and the UAE that IP. I did my thing to stop the war to go towards the gulf states. 

So what are we now left with?

Well, the SMH also takes care of that. We are given “As former CNN Pentagon reporter Barbara Starr noted, it’s possible that Ellison will be none-too-pleased about Hegseth’s implications.

Starr, a 21-year veteran of the defence beat, pointed out on X that CNN has sent personnel to combat zones for decades, with some even losing their lives. “You have a legal and moral obligation to defend the free press, even the ones you don’t personally like,” she told Hegseth.

As a former TV presenter before he was tasked with running the world’s most powerful military, press freedom should be Hegseth’s instinct. His comments today – and his vainglorious move to banish press photographers from his briefings – suggest he sees the media more as a vassal to serve his interests.” I can get behind that thought. As such there are sides to this entire setting that aren’t reported on this enough. The first one was that no formal declaration of war was ever given by the United States. As such we were given: “the Trump administration officials have offered various and conflicting explanations for the war, such as to ward off an imminent Iranian threat, to pre-empt Iranian retaliation against US assets after an expected Israeli attack on Iran” My issue here is that the international courts in The Hague might side with Iran concerning the seemingly unprovoked attacks by Iran (I know that is hilarious), Iran has been waging proxy wars for decades and that is the power of a proxy war. I reckon that the attacks by Israel and the United States give a bitter taste in the eyes of the law. Israel is decently clear because of all the attacks by Iran via Hamas and Hezbollah, but the idea given “to ward off an imminent Iranian threat” is laughable. It is like New Zealand attacking Australia, the Sopwith Camel doesn’t have the range to cross that distance and as far as I know New Zealand does not have an aircraft carrier. The same applies to Iran. There is no way that an attack can result from Iran. Even Lone Wolf attacks are unlikely to succeed and the United States still has their boy-scout organisations (FBI, CIA, DIA) in place, as such they can either do their job or they cannot. 

As such my speculative view was that the United States needed the oil that Iran has (for now). After failing to get to Canada’s rare earths (the 51st state attempt), Greenland resources (through failed annexation) and Venezuela oil (which is seem simply useless to the United States) the United States are now going for the Iranian oil. After that merely Russian oil remains (and Ukraine is doing something about that too) so what is left? I might be wrong in all this and there is a simple way to show me I am wrong. Merely bomb the 10 refineries. Several sources seemed to side with me on this as we are given ‘GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham Brags ‘We Are Going to Make a Ton of Money’ on Iran War’, which was given to us on March 9th. So as we were given “Graham seemingly suggested that the conflict with Iran as well as President Donald Trump’s abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro aim to help the United States take control over major oil reserves. “Venezuela and Iran have 31% of the world’s oil reserves. We’re going to have a partnership with 31% of the known reserves. This is China’s nightmare. This is a good investment,” he said.” As well as ““We’re going to blow the hell out of these people,” Graham said, adding that “nobody will threaten [the U.S.] in the Strait of Hormuz again.” He also said there could be a collapse of Iran’s leadership. “This regime is in a death throe now, it is gonna be on its knees, it’s going to fall, and when it falls we’re going to have peace like no other time,” he added.” It seems that after 9 days he was proven on nearly all fronts and now that it is out in the open that the United States needs oil (because they have so little at present) there is now the setting that the United States are too broke to seemingly pay their bills and as I see it, the moment the boots come on the ground, the media will report on nearly everything and that will put team Trump/Hegseth in a new folly and in the limelight, Because if I can figure this out in the last decade and now we get that Dave Kelly (JP Morgan, as per OCT2025) can figure this out, you should wonder why others couldn’t figure this out. I get that I am a no one in all this, but David Kelly is the Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Global Market Insights Strategy Team of JP Morgan and he is a voice to consider no matter how you slice it. 

So whilst we now get the Guardian (read: recently) give us “March 2026, Hegseth stated during a press briefing that US forces in Iran would show “no quarter, no mercy” to enemies. Analysts and Sen. Mark Kelly pointed out that a “no quarter” order—meaning to take no prisoners and kill them instead—is a direct violation of international law, specifically Article 23(d) of the 1907 Hague Convention IV.” All whilst media like the Conversation give us “Legal scholars have argued that Hegseth’s actions, particularly regarding the Venezuelan boat strikes and statements on the Iranian conflict, could expose him to investigations for violations of international and U.S. criminal law.” As such I reckon that both President Trump and Pete Hegseth fear the international courts. Iran optionally have a case here (I rely on optional as they have done plenty of bad things, among them attack Saudi Arabia without a formal declaration of war), so it makes sense that Pete Hegseth is in the stage that he wants to trivialize the international courts of law in the Hague, which is set through “The International Court of Justice, or colloquially the World Court, is the principal judicial organ of the United Nations (UN). It settles legal disputes submitted to it by states and provides advisory opinions on legal questions referred to it by other UN organs and specialized agencies. The ICJ is the only international court that adjudicates general disputes between countries, with its rulings and opinions serving as primary sources of international law. It is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations.” It was established in 1945 and it should now confuse all the readers on why António Guterres remains silent on this. It merely gives my thoughts on the United States being broke seeming validity. The person who attacks Israel at any option he gets, remained silent on too many settings we are seeing here. Even the rebuke on the settings of Pete Hegseth ‘attacking’ the international courts should have put him up in arms. There is the smallest notion that the media had not covered it, but I doubt that. As I see it, the seat that António Guterres hold is seen as one of the 100 most powerful seats in the world. It might not be as powerful as that uncomfortable seat that the pope has, but that would be a buttock conversation. 

So I think I have given you something to think about and consider why the bulk of the refineries are left untouched, because that creates the wealth of Iran and isn’t that the superiority of any army? We are given “Sun Tzu’s The Art of War emphasizes that the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting, making the destruction of an opponent’s economic base (or wealth of a nation) a superior strategy to direct physical conflict. Sun Tzu advises that a protracted war exhausts a state’s resources, dulls weapons, and dampens morale, meaning attacking an opponent’s economic ability to sustain a fight is crucial.” And I wrote about that on March 8th (and before that too, at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/03/08/ones-creative-process/) the story ‘Ones creative process’ gave you the setting that the harbours and railway of Iran should be destroyed and I was happy to hand the IP that could set that in a certain view of certainty to both Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Because I am just that sort of guy. It is never about personal profit in some stage of war and these two countries were hammered with drones and missiles. As such I did more than talk (are you watching this Pete Hegseth), I delivered. 

So you all have a great day and enjoy the day because Vancouver just joined us this Tuesday. 

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