In the last 24 hours I saw two articles, they might have some casual connection and I leave that up to you to decide. First up we get an article with the staged setting of ‘Why Muslims Will Suffer Most When The AI Bubble Bursts’ (at https://www.islamicfinanceguru.com/articles/ai-bubble-muslim-investors) the first thing going through my mind is that you need to get out before disaster strikes. Get out when the going remains optional, and I would personally phrase this setting that those ‘money diggers’ make claim that you are not a pussy, make sure that he is not tying his benefit to your welfare. Because those who need your money have their own agenda. So as I read “In the late 90s, everyone was piling into internet companies. The stock market was booming, and it felt like free money. Then in 2000, it imploded. Companies worth billions became worthless almost overnight, and an estimated 100 million everyday investors lost a combined $5 trillion. Now people are worried AI could be the next bubble. And if they’re right, Muslim investors could be hit the hardest, even though most of us don’t realize it yet. Here’s why, and what every Muslim investor should be doing right now to prepare.” With additional “Over the past few years, the stock market has been on an absolute tear, and almost all of it has been driven by a handful of companies: the Magnificent Seven, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla. All making big bets on AI. Share prices going up isn’t itself a problem. What makes people nervous is the valuation. Take Nvidia. It’s now one of the largest companies in the world, and investors are giving it a price-to-earnings ratio of around 50. That means at current earnings, it would take 50 years of profits to earn back what you paid for the stock today. That’s an enormous amount of faith in future growth. That faith might well be justified. These companies are genuinely transforming industries. But history tells us that when the story gets ahead of the fundamentals, eventually something snaps. We’re not saying it will, but it’s worth asking: what’s the most fragile part of this whole thing? What’s the single point of failure? Because there is one.” And there is one that beckons reading (the link is at the beginning) and I agree with him. But the one thing that I take from the rest of that story is ‘acknowledge the concentration risk’ there is a downside of that, when it goes, it goes almost spectacularly (the investors don’t think out is spectacular) but I have other things against this AI setting, because from my point of view all AI is Fake AI. (Read my other works for elaboration, merely go see Google and ask:
Lawlordtobe + “AI” + “AI bubble”
You should get over a dozen articles bringing this out and it merely my personal setting, but I believe that is an almost pertaining truth in all this that no one wants to acknowledge. When you come to the end of that rainbow, which did not start at a pot of gold and does not end with a pot either, you see why I believe that this is coming to an end (and right quick). Don’t get me wrong, I believe in DML (Deeper Machine Learning) and LLM (Large Language Models) these are strong tools and a lot more will be coming from this. But it al all down to the knowledge of the programmer and it just isn’t AI, not even close. So I did not give the Muslim investor much rope. I am not Muslim and I have never been an investor. Not even close, I am not even an early adopter. So whilst we now see Sam Altman in quotes all over the internet from ‘Sam Altman: ‘It also takes a lot of energy to train a human’ — a staunch defense of the cost of AI training’, so if this was real (read: true) AI, what did he have to defend? Then there is ‘“Thought It Was Satire”: Sam Altman Takes Dig At Anthropic’s New Ad Amid Online Backlash’ where we are told that:
“Anthropic’s latest advertising campaign, “There’s Hope in Hard Questions”, was designed to show that the AI company is willing to confront difficult questions about artificial intelligence and its potential risks. Instead, the ad has sparked widespread criticism online, with many viewers describing its tone as unsettling, creepy and overly bleak.”
As I see it, some people are starting to crying about the still missing ROI and that is not even getting close to the fold whilst some give us
“AI Return on Investment (ROI) is highly debated and highly variable. While many companies report time savings and efficiency gains, a large percentage of executives struggle to see direct, bottom-line financial returns due to high infrastructure costs and a lack of proper workflow integration.”
All whilst the ‘highly variable’ is driven towards a timeline which is (by some) decades away. As such some need to worry when they are given the image of a Cadillac, whilst they are buying an Edsel. This might not be completely accurate, but it is what I see. When the court cases are driven towards that the setting that “DMLA Submission to the US Copyright Office argues against rash “data mining laws.” They state that because a robust licensing market already exists, creators should not be forced to subsidize AI technology by allowing free text-and-data-mining (TDM) exemptions” and when you are at this point, you are likely to lose a massive bundle ofd your investment. All whilst the Tech Policy Press gives us that:
“A dedicated legal database known as the AI on Trial dataset has tracked at least 500 cases globally across 39 countries, encompassing intellectual property, privacy, discrimination, and platform regulation”
Sounds like a good place to keep your investment, because when these cases settle (I’m hopefully hoping for some coins from that equation) you are done with whatever you thought you had. But (there is always a but) there is an optional outcome and it was given to me at (https://maritime-executive.com/article/uae-plans-to-build-a-new-jebel-ali-to-bypass-strait-of-hormuz) by the maritime executive. With the headline ‘UAE Plans to Build a New Jebel Ali to Bypass Strait of Hormuz’ with the setting that UAE had left OPEC, they might be sitting pretty on some coins and that place might need investment. As oil is a commodity that the planet needs, there is every chance that your optional investment goes back from 50 years to up to 5 years with a decent spillage of coins coming your way. So when we read “The Financial Times has added to a number of reports that the UAE is planning to expand its port and freight-handling capacity on its East Coast, accessing the Gulf of Oman and bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The Financial Times says that DP World is planning not only to build an entirely new port on the Fujairah coast, but also to expand capacity at the existing Fujairah container terminal. It is not clear what coordination arrangements DP World has made with the existing Fujairah terminal, which is operated by the AD Ports Group under the brand name Fujairah Terminals, following the signing of a 35-year concession agreement in 2017 with Fujairah Ports, which in turn is controlled by the Fujairah Al Sharqi Royal Family.” It is my firm believe that these players would accept Muslim investment and that means the setting that you might come out as a winner, because this place outside of the Strait of Hormuz would give the UAE (read: ADNOC) give a larger setting of up to 5,000,000 barrels of oil per day with the small grocery customers like India, Australia, Indonesia, Japan and China. It feel (read: me is not being an investor) like an almost sure thing and that tends to breed opportunity. And whilst we are given “Plans are already afoot to speed the completion of a second crude pipeline to parallel the Habshan–Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), doubling capacity from 1.5 to 3 million barrels per day. Fujairah Ports also operates a bulk products terminal at Dibba, on the border with Oman’s Musandam Peninsula, and Dibba has also been slated for development and upgrade.” It might allow the UAE to double that doubled setting, which is personally vision, not fact based analyses. But in this, Muslims investors are likely to see another opportunity, they might move out of that Fake AI setting whilst the leaving is good. But don’t take my word for that, it is a mere view coming from academic and personal vision on IT and a personal view on where I see the world going and I have more than 500 reasons for my views and those 500 reasons are the most likely dampers on your return on investment. #JustSaying
So, have a great day today and I am on route to kill a few Metroids, because those critters are getting out of hand on my Nintendo Switch.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 