ABC just told me that an hour ago ‘US boosts Iran war assets with third aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush’ (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-25/uss-george-hw-bush-arrives-middle-east-military-assets-boost/106601060) with “About 5,000 troops and dozens of fighter jets are aboard USS George HW Bush.” The additional “The USS George HW Bush entered waters near Iran after a week of chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, with no sign of peace talks resuming.” The setting we have been given “We won, Iran is lost” should be casually dismissed. We are given “The USS George HW Bush strike group is comprised of nearly 5,000 sailors, the US Navy said. It includes the flagship carrier, which comes with nine aircraft squadrons. The George HW Bush is also accompanied by the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Ross, USS Donald Cook and USS Mason. The US describes Arleigh Burke-class destroyers as the “backbone” of the navy’s surface fleet, designed to provide mission capabilities such as anti-aircraft, anti-surface, and anti-submarine warfare.” All whilst we now see that The Bush is joining the carriers USS Gerald R Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln. It is a little off putting that there are three carriers there now. I am not the most tactical person you have ever met, but when you consider that the IRGC would consider an aircraft carrier to be a nice trophy, why do you think they consider three of these bad boys are? But, they have nothing to fear, as President Trump stated that they had already defeated Iran, they were bombed into the stone age (I am paraphrasing here), so those three carriers have nothing to fear, do they?
We also get a list of deployed units, from ships to drones and I realised that the IRGC needs but a spare to unite this in a full blown war. One visionary act and it could be anything, a tanker rigged as a kamikaze item, a modern version of the fire ships of 1588. Now ships are more defended against fires, but what about acid probes on the keel of the boat? You can defend all you want, but the idea that was overlooked can scuttle a fleet and that is the setting that the United States is overlooking. The IRGC is for all intent and purposes desperate they will try anything. Ad in this strait, this small patch of water, the United States deployed 24 vessels, all on that small patch of water. It takes merely a spark to ignite it all. I personally belief that this is the latest folly in a whole range of bad decisions.
So whilst some give us ‘US envoy and Trump’s son-in-law to travel to Pakistan amid hopes for renewed Iran peace talks’ the delays and denials of issues makes me think that Iran is not done plotting yet, it is not done scheming and no matter how desperate they are, the desperate will make unpredictable jumps and here we have a unique setting with three aircraft carriers in one patch of water. I have no idea what Iran will do, but they would want to send a signal heard all over the world and as I see it, the United States is currently ‘fueling’ that. In addition we get words from Michael Hudson is President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), a Wall Street Financial Analyst, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City giving us ‘The Ponzi Economy Is Breaking’, yesterday on April 24th we are given “Is another financial crisis brewing in the US economy? Economist Michael Hudson explains the dangers.” Reports suggest the US economy may be on the verge of another financial crisis, with major problems in the $3 trillion private credit market. Economist Michael Hudson explains the dangers of Wall Street’s Ponzi schemes.” This is funny, because on April 2nd in ‘The idea is not novel’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/04/02/the-idea-is-not-novel/) I gave the world “That is what I feel at present. CNBC gave us all 12 hour ago the ominous title ‘Trump is paying TSA agents — but where is the money coming from?’” Where I raised “Where does the money Trump is using come from? How much is available? How long can Trump continue to pay TSA agents if Congress doesn’t soon come to a deal?” You think they are unrelated, yes they are unrelated, but there is cause and effect. If the IRGC ignites that spark, what do you think happens next? 3 carriers and 5000 troops bring a while’s range of bad media to the surface. It would be a range of “United States doomed” to “Iran beats United States” and every media will be howling for digital dollars attention.
And most likely I am wrong, remember? Iran lost the war weeks ago, they have nothing to bring to the table. But what happens if I am proven right? Think about that and think on the United States economy when that Ponzi scheme setting blows up in the faces of Wall Street. Just something to think about. Have a great day.
Yup, the Amazon. And if you think we are talking about that woman in a tight leather bodice hiding perky breasts looking like a 30 something woman called Gal Gadot, you’d be wrong. We are talking about the other Amazon, the one with a wrinkly face selling books. A few articles hit me a few hours ago. The first one on the table (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyjjr7kzj2o) is the BBC, Fortune with its paywall was rejected) is the one we see first. It sets the tone with ‘Amazon to spend $11bn on satellite firm in growing Starlink rivalry’, now I accept and respect competition and the quote “Amazon is aiming to build-up its satellite business to offer internet and mobile phone services by spending $11.57bn (£8.5bn) on an acquisition of Globalstar. The deal, announced Tuesday, will allow Amazon to get thousands of satellites into low-earth orbit through the Amazon Leo project the company has been working on for several years.” But the added part starts making this setting a more desperate look, with “Amazon will be in closer competition with Starlink, an increasingly popular satellite-based internet and phone service company launched by Elon Musk in 2019. Starlink has a significant head-start on Amazon’s Leo, which currently only has around 200 satellites in orbit. Musk’s company, which is private, says it already has more than 10,000 active satellites offering internet and mobile phone service to more than 10 million paying customers.” Star link is already seeing head waves with the rejection by Canada and next Europe with the sabres rattling that President Trump is throwing in the air. The last words have not been spoken about that and as soon as Ursula von der Leyen is setting the tone of what the American Administration is accepted to get hearing of, this field will become a lot less profitable. But besides that, under the guise of AI (lets keep it real and call it fake AI) “As of January 2026, Amazon is cutting approximately 16,000 corporate roles to reduce bureaucracy and embrace AI, following a previous round of 14,000 job cuts in October.” We are already raising eye brows as that is setting too many people out into the cold and now they are playing with $11.57 billion to play with the competition they have no chance of catching up to? 200 makes no competitor out of 10,000 satellites and as I see it, Starlink is setting several amazing views, does Globalstar have anything to match it? Its like Microsoft with its 5% market share stating that it is time to replace Google, who has over 88% share. It is never going to happen and as I do not trust AI, I will still google things, no matter what some media claims people do and millions of people are on the same side that I am on.
I reckon that $1 billion could have given these 30,000 people a job and that is before we take under consideration a few other things. Some say that a data centre has 3 to 5 years (source: Fortune) so how can you keep these data centers when the return on investment is at least 5 years out? These are the makings of a pot stew, one that usually is standing besides a few players playing some version of poker. It sounds like the consolation price for something no one needed, or at least that sounds to be the case. You see, this drive to data centers requires a population and as I see it Europeans are now actively rejecting Microsoft and everything that comes with it (like data capturing). So what gives?
Then we get CNBC, who (at https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/09/amazon-ceo-andy-jassy-ai-spending.html) gives ‘Amazon CEO Jassy defends $200 billion AI spend: “We’re not going to be conservative”’ with some of the key points being “Amazon CEO Andy Jassy released his annual shareholder letter, where he once again made the case for huge investments in artificial intelligence. The company has said it expects to spend roughly $200 billion on capital expenditures this year, with the lion’s share going toward AI development. Jassy wrote that AI revenue in its cloud computing segment has hit a $15 billion annual run rate.” And here we expect a few things. You see, investing $200 dollar to get back $15 per year sounds stellar, but it also means that you are 13 years away from getting the original $200 back and now when it concerns billions, there is the matter of interest. Given that they might be drowning their revenue, there is no interest, but it is a large thing to take into account if it is the company handheld on the white that AI becomes real in the next 13 years. I think it is touch and go there, but still the second sized wave of technology will be massive. Once IBM releases the shallow circuit advantage they have, the will cost Amazon billions too, I have no idea what Google has on that term, but as I see out Amazon does not. So, as I see it, Amazon is paying poker with a bank of over $220 billion and the outcome is definitely a gamble and one of the highest order as well. So as CNBC gives us “Amazon shares have struggled so far this year as investors question the company’s aggressive AI spending plans and grow increasingly impatient about when the investments will pay off.Amazon shares closed up 5.6% on Thursday. The stock is up more than 1% year to date.Jassy has said that Amazon needs the capital to go after “a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” and to keep pace with “very high demand” for the company’s AI compute.” I merely wonder if anyone has a clue what kind of a gamble Amazon is making, because that bill comes due and it comes due in a most unfashionable way. So whilst we look (and optionally gawk) at what is shown, can anyone see what about to happen?
Then. We are ‘hit’ with the final setting and it is given to us (at https://nationaltoday.com/us/wa/seattle/news/2026/04/14/goldman-sachs-lowers-amazon-price-target-ahead-of-key-earnings/) where we see ‘Goldman Sachs Lowers Amazon Price Target Ahead of Earnings’, which is always going to happen, but the quote “Wall Street analysts see both opportunities and risks in Amazon’s AI-driven growth strategy.” The one side to look at this (an optionally wrong one) is that the added risk is downplaying the opportunity in the field here. That is beside the point, as I see it, that the added quote is merely filling with “Goldman Sachs has lowered its price target on Amazon stock to $275 from $280, while maintaining a Buy rating ahead of the company’s expected earnings report on April 30, 2026. The revision signals a broader shift in investor attention toward the key risks and opportunities shaping Amazon’s next phase, including the performance of Amazon Web Services, the impact of rising energy prices, the commercialization timeline for Amazon Leo, and the growth of Amazon’s advertising and marketing platform.” But what matters is “Amazon’s aggressive push into artificial intelligence through AWS has become a critical driver of the company’s growth, with AWS already reaching an annualized AI revenue run rate exceeding $15 billion. However, the heavy AI spending also comes with trade-offs, as Amazon is significantly increasing capital expenditures, which could pressure free cash flow in the near term. Investors are closely watching these developments to understand Amazon’s trajectory in 2026 and beyond.” As I see it, the risks are adding up and we are likely to see an addition of maturing trade-offs to make the screens, making investors jittery. Personally I don’t think that it is the “pressure of free cash flow”, I believe that there are several risks of Globalstar ignored and that will rear its ugly head soon enough, because at some point Starlink will boost their presence with requirements towards ‘space safety’ and whilst no one is expecting this, I reckon that Globalstar is not ready for those ‘demands’ and as such $11.52 down the toilet as they say, a risk that is (at present) undocumented, but that will raise the risk levels on a few levels, but what do I know. I am originally from tech support, not in any way connected to economic forecasting.
A setting that gives us that in almost every way it is more appealing to watch Gal Gadot with perky breasts in a leather bodice than it is to look at the presumption of revenue by speculative economic forecasters of Amazon inc. But that might be my hormones talking and not my wallet, which has zero Amazon stock, so I am not listening to my wallet at present, who is eerily empty.
So you all have a great day and consider the risks you are facing today, if you are watching Gal Gadot, the risks are good, if your fortune is in Amazon, a little less so.
Where does the money Trump is using come from? How much is available? How long can Trump continue to pay TSA agents if Congress doesn’t soon come to a deal?
You think this is a simple setting, but as I see it, it is not. It reeks like a Ponzi scheme. Paying one lot from a stack mean for other means. Now in normal settings we get this, pile one a has a surplus (or reserve) and it deals with a few items not meant for it, but I personally believe that CNBC uncovered part of the setting that was never meant to be seen by anyone, because it alerts the media to questions it was never meant to realise in their destiny for digital dollars.
An d personally I wonder what the budgeting departments can give the world in uncovering what is really happening, because as I personally see it, when any government is totaling their revenue towards a Ponzi scheme kind of balancing, we can deduce that the United States is now in its final game, desperate to survive whatever comes next. President Trump played (by some) an essential game to make The United States look important (or is that impotent?) The first game was Canada that it had to be part of these beautiful states somehow united and he had already a designation for this, their 51st state, a state bigger and more beautiful than any other, but the Canadians (bless them) were not falling into that trap. They were saved by their Prime Minister, who was the Governor of the Bank of England before he got back to Canada and he saw through President Trump like an adult watching a toddler trying to figure out the functions of a spanner. It was never a competition. Now that Canada was on alert, they were possibly alerting Denmark on what the United States had in mind for the rare earths in Greenland and they were willing to pay (yet no more than $0.01 on the dollar) as they lacked certain funds and Denmark got Europe to stand by them and get angry too. As such the expenditure tap of Europe was getting closed towards the United States of America, and now the United States arranged for two settings, the first was that more allies were furious with them and with the closed expenditure tap to the end date of the United States came rushing forward. But President Trump had lived by divide and conquer for most of his life, so he used bully tactics to get Venezuela to heel and Wall Street rejoiced for 5 minutes. The problem is that Venezuela has plenty of volatile sludge, but it is oil by another name and not that useful in the machines available to the United States. And another setting was thwarted.
So now we get to the current dilemma. Iran, all useful and none of it at the needs for the United States. So what does it do? It bombs Iran into the Stone Age and is now ready to invade Iran and now because it was forced (as some say) for the United States (as well as Israel) to came to the setting of the new colony of Kharg Island, it can tap from those billions of barrels of oil. But Iran casually included the guy states by attacking it and these now will demand their reparations to be funded thorough Iranian oil. I casually had another thought, why let the United States ‘win’ when we can stop Iran’s infrastructure and that will bring out the real culprit. As such I ‘bestowed’ IP on Saudi Arabia and the UAE so that they can get their Dirhams worth and in the mean time there is enough delay to bring the plight of the United States to bare, because the media does nothing to do this. I might not be as clever as Canadian Prime Minster Mark Carney (a multiple winner of economic awards), but I do have my own creative sides and I brought them to bare. So whilst others are lulled in a setting of sleep, I am seeing that CNBC has seen some of it and when others are starting to realise that “The White House has not laid out exactly where within the tax and spending bill the money is coming from, but Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the Center for American Progress, said there is only one plausible section that the administration could be citing. Buried deep in the more than 300-page measure is a section that sets aside $10 billion “for reimbursement of costs incurred in undertaking activities in support of the Department of Homeland Security’s mission to safeguard the borders of the United States.”” This document allegedly is covering the payment of several bills with that $10 billion, but siphoned in different ways the setting of a Ponzi scheme is met. So what is the Ponzi scheme?
A Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud that pays existing investors with funds collected from new investors rather than from actual profit earned. Promoters promise high, consistent returns with little or no risk, creating an illusion of success that attracts more capital until the scheme collapses due to a lack of new investors.
And as I personally see it, they are funding AI and their StarGate in similar ways. The funds have have dried up and the game is over, but this president (Wall Street too) don’t believe that the party will ever end, but the markers are there.
So could I be wrong? That remains to be seen, it is possible, but behind the ‘rhetoric’ and the film flam abilities of some to curdle milk, the audience is told to believe in a setting that is seemingly no longer there. And I believe that the United States is now playing with marbles they never owned that others have to pay for the setting they invoked. Like some sources give us ‘Trump Wants Gulf Allies to Pay US for War Despite Bearing Brunt of Iran Strikes?’ And the use of ‘might’ is overly used, but it is all he has left and I don’t agree. I gave the Saudi Arabia and the UAE ways to deal with Iran, paying the United States was never on my mind (or valid) and it is another setting we are given that the United States is running out of money and they have less and less in their allowance sack. As I see it, it is worth less than the empty sack.
So, whilst you are considering all the ways I might be wrong, the larger setting is ‘Could I be right?’ A setting that many are rejecting just out of the notion to reject it as the hard truth is too much to bare. Have a great day.
I find myself in this setting. A few days ago, I remember that President Trump said that the Iranian missiles were taken care of and in light of the 2000 drones and missiles fired at the UAE it sounded plausible. So the Deutsche Welle gave us “Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu say that Iran’s missile capacity is “destroyed” and “degraded,” yet Iran still strikes. How many missiles and drones remain, and how quickly can Iran rebuild its arsenal?” Which came with ‘How well armed is Iran, and can it replenish missiles?’ I was ahead of that by designing a new IP to take care of the roads, I started with crazy glue, but I changed this to small pellets with a 10 seconds delay. Based on the original setting it was a small pellet about 5mm in size with crazy glue around the core in the outer shell and whilst trucks drove over them the 10 seconds delay would enable the solution to be ‘grabbed’ by several trucks and in the Iranian ‘wilderness’ a truck without tires gets stopped right quick and no help is expected to come for hours. So whilst these trucks are out in the open and no help is coming, you get missiles without a clue, trucks without tracks and you can fill in the rest. So I was feeling pretty happy that my 2.0 solution seemed to be on a roll so to say.
But now, only an hour ago we are given by Reuters ‘Exclusive: U.S. can only confirm about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal destroyed, sources say’ (article behind paywall) this means that Iran can keep on firing its missiles into the UAE and Saudi Arabia. As such I am happy that I gave them the IP to take care of their harbours and railways, and now of course my 2.0 solution to trucking. So, this gives us the light wondering if President Trump has the ability to speak the truth, because we get exaggeration after exaggeration and there is no stopping this man as he is might be seen as the first president that has a failed fact check list that humbles a New York Phonebook for its amount of pages.
And whilst the Wall Street Journal gives us ‘Trump Tells Aides He Wants Speedy End to Iran War’ where we are given “President Trump has told associates in recent days that he wants to avoid a protracted war in Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an end in the coming weeks.” So, what is his idea of a speedy end? The United States is now in week 4 of the Iranian clambake, it is ‘halting’ 10 days with CNN giving us “US President Donald Trump has for a second time extended his deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – or face its power plants being “obliterated.” The status of the talks remains unclear, with both sides giving mixed signals. Iran has expressed deep distrust toward Washington, while Trump is growing frustrated with the pace of progress. And on the ground, the war, which has killed thousands across the Middle East since it began nearly four weeks ago, shows no signs of diminishing.” All whilst CNBC gives us “The U.S. is preparing to send thousands more troops to the Middle East, prompting speculation about a ground attack on Iran amid conflicting accounts of peace talks. The Pentagon is reportedly preparing to send about 3,000 troops from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, alongside two Marine Expeditionary Units, to assist military operations in Iran.” All whist BBC News gives us that “Pentagon denies report that US considering sending 10,000 troops to Middle East” Now, I get that armies ‘wallow’ in misinformation, so that is fair as they do not want their enemy to know which way is up. As such I am all for that level of misinformation and it is according to the writings of Sun Tzu (the art of war), but there is a massive missing level of fact checks on a few levels and I reckon we should know what was not destroyed, especially when the enemy knows what was not destroyed. But I could be grasping at straws here.
The larger setting is that there is too much out of bounds and that also goes into the failing credibility of the US administration, and as I see it, they cannot deal with too much loss there. Especially as they are losing more allies they ever had and at present it only has Israel as an ally left. At present the ‘calculus’ setting as the United States as an ally is giving Israel as 71%, and in that list, the lowest is Japan at 63%, after that it goes down fast, at the top is Canada claiming the United States as an ally with 46%, Australia at 38% and more below, with the United States calling the United States an ally for 1%. (Source: PEW Research), now, this is not the most recent research, but the setting of this should scare the United States government into springing into action, because before 2025 Canada was its top ally and now Canada is resentful of the United States and its tourism numbers are in the basement. Forbes gave us that “As of early 2026, Canadian travel to the U.S. has seen 13 consecutive months of declines.” And in this economy as it stands, this is really bad.
So what do these two have to do with one another?
Fair question. There is a setting that the armies can only continue when the money comes rolling in and that is not happening, the US economy is largely losing on tourism, all whilst the Financial Times gives us (at https://www.ft.com/content/15117219-c1e1-4da8-866b-817b75643c18) “The costs of Trump’s war are staggering. The most consequential is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused global oil prices to rise at the fastest rate since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The average gasoline price in the US is now $3.98 — nearly $1 higher than just a month ago. For the average household, the pain at the pump could add up to nearly $750 in extra costs this year.” Take that number, add to that the amount of people that are hurt though tourism, manufacturing and services and take into consideration the number offers that JP Morgan gave us last October and the cost of warfare is rearing its ugly head. Add to that the amount of fact checks that are getting a failing grade and this mess is near complete.
So whilst the Financial Times also gives us “Higher prices on everything from groceries to furniture to clothes will tear a hole in family budgets at a time when more Americans already report skipping meals, delaying medical care, or dipping into their retirement savings to make ends meet. The response from Trump’s top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, was that consumer pain caused by the Iran war is “the last of our concerns right now”.” I personally think that Kevin Hassett is seemingly on the wrong medication at present, consumer pain goes through everything and Sun Tzu’s The Art of War actually advises avoiding harm to civilians and promoting their goodwill. This is not happening now (as far as I can see) and this has been a truth for over 2500 years. So as I see it, Kevin Hassett better take a renewed look at what is happening at present, because he gets to eat his own words when this so called war is still in effect in 3 weeks, because at that point the breaking point of the people will have been surpassed by a lot and that (speculative) rating of United States calling the United States an ally decreases to 0% and as I see it, no nation ever faced that setting before. There is a new setting coming up (and I don’t like it) there is now a chance that the United States might face another civil war, because when the people lose whatever they have and face more and more hardship the bulk of its population (now assessed at 342,000,000) cannot be controlled by 1,300,000 troops and there is every chance that many will walk out of their units to stand by their family. This is what this administration seemingly achieved and that is the harsh view they need to face.
So, am I wrong? This is also a fair question, because no one is looking at this, but I believe that this speculative view I have will gain traction in the next two weeks and I would be happy to be wrong, but the checks and balances that need to be in place aren’t there and the larger group of the media is no longer credible, so you have to figure it out. Have a great day today.
That is where I was this morning. I had a speculative view on President Trump, but with the news that CBC gave me a few hours later (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/trump-gordie-howe-bridge-9.7081924) where we see ‘Trump threatens to block opening of new bridge between Windsor and Detroit’ and it comes with the statement ““I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated for everything we have given them, and also, importantly, Canada treats the United States with the Fairness and Respect that we deserve,” Trump wrote in the post on Monday.” So if people are willing to bite into this one sided setting, beware. The words “until the United States is fully compensated for everything” is a presumptuous setting that I might have been more correct than even I figured out I was. As I see it the United States is out of money, or perhaps more accurately they are scooping the final dollars from the bottom of their coffers and they are now in a day by day setting to figure out what bills to pay and which not (like the Jersey train tunnel) for that story see yesterday’s blog.
I wonder what commerce President Trump thought they had coming from the Gordie Howe bridge. And the ‘sort of’ response that Canada received was “Trump made the threat amid a 299-word post in which he said Canada has treated the U.S. “very unfairly for decades,” complained that the bridge was built “with virtually no U.S. content” and repeated his criticism of Prime Minister Mark Carney “wanting to make a trade deal with China.”” We can snigger all we like against the response which might be considered one of the least intelligent and least fact laden responses that any government has EVER received. And as I see the debt driven United States flex whatever lard they have, we see that these are the final acts of a nation that has no more. It wanted a debt driven society and now you see what it amount to, less then nothing.
Could I be wrong? That is always a fair question and I believe I am. I saw these settings evolve from the stupid attempt to convince that Canada might become the 51st state, then Greenland, after that Venezuelan oil and Venezuela, like a desperate crack whore trying to get one more score. And now that all this is failing they are stopping the Jersey tunnel (for which funding was already achieved before Donald Trump became President Trump and now we see the Gordie Howe Bridge, optionally one of the the last straws that could bring commerce to Detroit. When you see all these settings and after they already shutdown the building of wind farms (some speculated that this was to appease the oil owners). All whilst President Trump is shutting down higher education to some degree. As CNBC gives us with ‘Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ may spur significant changes to higher education in 2026 and the rise of ‘un-college,’ experts say’ (at https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/08/trump-big-beautiful-bill-college-education.html) where we see “Ballooning college costs and the student loan debt that goes along with them are partly to blame. New borrowing limits for 2026 under President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill” are another factor. Plus, students are increasingly seeking job training and career-driven pathways to secure a foothold in today’s softening labor market.” When you take away the boasting elements we see that the United States can no longer afford the streams they themself instigated and whilst the world is becoming more and more aware that AI does not exist (merely Near Intelligent Parsing (aka NIP) which amounts to DML and LLM) and all these settings are getting a front seat at the legal court cases that are now under advisement.
We are getting Legal Misconduct/Hallucinations (Australia), Copyright Infringement (Disney and Universal), Training Data Disputes (GEMA won a case against OpenAI), Evidence Issues and AI in Sentencing. Then there is a chance that I have a case against parties in Singapore and the United States over what could be AI abuse of my Intellectual property and whist some ‘claim’ that this could be set to $1,500,000 per case I am looking at an optional 6,000 cases, so I might be wringing my hands fairly soon (unless a deal is made). We are seeing all these events in play all whilst that so called “Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’” which could be another setting for a ‘dream castle in the sky’ or at least that is how I would like to phrase it. All these elements seem ridiculous, however it amounts to the setting that the United States are out of money and that is before they consider that the $500,000,000,000 towards StarGate LLC might be a wash (basically a massive write-off). If you want to consider that I am wrong, feel free to do so, but I do request that you take a hard look at the fact that the media isn’t giving you because I made mention of this setting as early as July 8th 2024 in ‘Two issues caught my attention’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/07/08/two-issues-caught-my-attention/) and I made more mentions earlier than that and the media is ‘caught’ unaware?
So, do you think that I am merely speculating? Or is there something to be seen? I am not telling, I am asking. I gave my version and you are seeing why is playing. In the first, why would President Trump stop a project that has assigned funds and would secure the new jersey line for another century because he is demanding Penn Station and/or Dulles Airport after him? Are people nuts? There is more in play than the sanity of one man, because if that was true Wall Street would have made a massive outburst in the direction of the White House, but they remain silent. Why? I believe that I was right all along, but I understand that my word might not be much towards others. As such you should investigate yourself, it is only the best you can do. In the meantime, I will stand with my Canadian brethren, because that is what a Commonwealthian does. He (She also) stands with his brothers and sisters.
That is what I have to say over the situation as I see it, it might be speculative, but too many facts seem to feed this speculation. I will leave it up to you to decide if this is a mere speculation or my brain going nuts, or perhaps there is more.
There are points where there is doubt, and then there are points where doubt does not come in. I for one have no doubt that President Trump is faking a lot, we see the rhetoric “If we don’t take Greenland, China or Russia will.” I don’t think so, but I have no data that sways me from one side to the other. Russia just got bitch slapped by Ukraine and NATO has no problem to do that to Russia a few times more. China has its own rare metals deposits all over China and as I see it, USA is broke, they need it more than the other players, especially as the oil tycoons don’t see an option in Venezuela. The other side is also about war drums. They will cancel every base America has in Europe. That is nice, but Rammstein is one hell of an investment by its soldiers in Kaiserslautern, when that goes the economy from that town gets a left cross, a right cross and an uppercut, straight into the wallet of that place, but perhaps Germany figured on those losses and will persevere. There are several other bases that gets closed down and I’m all for that, they attacked and they are now putting the fire under Greenland (Denmark too). Al Jazeera gives us less then an hour ago ‘Danish FM says Denmark, US still ‘differ’ over Greenland’ They give us that “US President Donald Trump says in a post on Truth Social that the United States control of Greenland is “vital” for his planned Golden Dome air and missile defence system.” Whilst 16 minutes ago the were given “Now, they’re willing to talk about the possibility of expanding US bases. The US has had a base there for many, many years. They have a base there at the moment, it has about 150 personnel there, but the Danes and the Greenlandic government are willing to discuss expanding the US military presence there. But Donald Trump says that unless it’s under US control, then anything less is unacceptable, and he’d like to see the US move into Greenland sooner than later.” And no one raises how broke the USA actually is, that is the crunch of it all and the is why President Trump needs Greenland, not for any other reason, because if national security was the issue there would have been a base expansion. Its really that simple.
ABC gave us 13 hours ago “He also said he would rather “make a deal” for the territory, but added: “One way or the other, we’re going to have Greenland.”” Which is feeding my ‘USA is broke’ setting, but nothing more than that. CNBC gives us a mere 13 minutes ago ‘Trump, Denmark have ‘fundamental disagreement’ over Greenland but will keep talking, officials say’ this makes it sound desperate, Denmark gave their answer and Trump now comes across as the teenager which is silenced by the girl stating ‘If you shut the fuck up, I’ll have sex with you’. Yes it sounds weirdly desperate and for the reason that he is broke, he needs to take that posture, because the moment he starts mining and not expanding the base and other settings they ‘need’ for national security, my point stands and the global media is shown as utterly useless, especially their economic columns. So I reckon that we can point at these media dodo’s at the next Davos in the desert and ask them whatever they aren’t seeing now, they’ll be getting their daily dose of news with a healthy set of sarcasm wherever they turn. Oh, and I insist on a published list of American Stakeholders, they might have done their jobs, but they get in the USA unemploymancy line, because as I see it, they are through in the EU and Commonwealth. But that is a setting for another day. Another setting Al Jazeera is giving us a mere 14 hours ago was ‘Why Greenland and Europe might have to offer Trump concessions’, I get it, it would settle the pressures that the USA is seeing and that would make Wall Street happy, but that still exposes the President Trump setting with a declines credit card. With “Europe might offer a minerals deal and greater US security presence on Greenland. But will that be enough to satiate Trump?” On one side there is the chance that the shorelines of the American east coast could rise 3-5 meters as there would be an enormous ice melt on Greenland, so happy us, on the other hand, what is left of Greenland would throw its lives in all kinds of hardship and that is not good. And I am a sneaky one, as Al Jazeera is giving us “Copenhagen is tooling up. It has announced $4.2bn in extra defence spending for the Arctic. And it is buying 16 more F-35 fighter jets (from, of course, the US). But even so, Denmark would have little chance against the full might of the US military.” There is every chance that those 16 F-35’s will be cancelled and they might buy the Gripen, or perhaps even the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), I think it is not a good idea to buy from the people that are trying to invade your domain, but that might be just me.
All this whilst RFI gives us 11 minutes ago ‘Macron warns of ‘cascading consequences’ if US seizes Greenland’ here we see ““France is closely monitoring the situation and will act in full solidarity with Denmark and its sovereignty.” Macron’s comments came after US President Donald Trump said American control of Greenland was “vital” for a planned Golden Dome air and missile defence system.” And as I see it, there is some bad blood here too (something about submarines), so as I see it, almost all of Europe is up in arms about this and there might be some consideration that USA could end up getting thrown out of NATO, President Trump doesn’t care about that anyway (several quotes to that effect were given), which will free up all those bases in Europe as well and as Russia is now a mere shadow from what it was (due to the Ukraine) a different setting might be playing out and as that happens, when Russia and China are ‘discussing’ what to do with the USA, the average American will enter a new stage of being a third world citizen. Several mentions have been seen all over the media, but with the thoughts I saw from the data I have had in my possession for over 13 years, the setting sounds right, but I fear that this is where my opinion is not enough. When the infrastructure collapses, the average would be grateful to be a third world citizen, their lives will be worse than the lives the people had in 1932. By then, one of every four workers was unemployed. Banks failed and life savings were lost, leaving many Americans destitute. With no job and no savings, thousands of Americans lost their homes. This time around one in three will be without income, all pensioners are without money and millions will be without a home. And when these banks collapse they will be confiscated by others and picked dry like a vulture goes after the carcass of the banks. That is what I expect to see, but I will admit that my view is beyond gloomy (and highly speculative), the fun I am getting now is that others are hiding behind their AI systems thinking it is not going to be that bad. So they are using training on data that has not existed before, their AI systems are highly unvalidated and none of the remaining data was verified. So when they figure out what that will entail, others will figure out that you cannot train data on setting we have never seen before and that will crush their AI dreams (which never should have existed). And for the Americans wanting to avoid that, Saudi Aramco is giving us
“We are looking for experienced professionals in a wide range of fields including engineering, geosciences, drilling, R&D, as well as education, finance, law, and other administrative areas. We generally seek candidates who possess a minimum of five to 10 years of applicable experience. Innovation is highly valued here at Saudi Aramco, and thesis work that furthers the industry’s general knowledge of oil and gas exploration and production is of particular interest. Active participation in relevant professional associations is also looked upon favorably.”
So up to 3500 people can escape the hardship that is coming for them. I reckon that I will try a setting with ADNOC, they also need people and I fear that large parts of the Commonwealth will be equally hit. Larger part of the Commonwealth ‘embraced’ the American setting for too long, these firms will implode and the need for data cleaners and data validators will not be in great demand, they are all dependent on firms based in the USA, and when that goes, 4 out of every jobs in that sector will vanish. Not a good thing. So whilst in doubt I say onto you, never believe one source and verify all you can, because you are about to make hardship decisions and that better come through verified sources, because you will be making too dangerous a decision on anything not verified or validated.
That is life and that is the life you must avoid. And for those people stating that my words are harsh and stated on the way they are, I say “I get that and you are free to consider any option”, but this is how I see it and the fact that Greenland is still playing out is the reason that there is ‘wiggle room’ and if my setting of ‘USA is broke’ is wrong, so is this entire setting. But there have been economists (read: JP Morgan) who made similar claims and they are better at this then I am and when you take that setting with Venezuela my picture looks a lot more precise that anyone should consider wrong and 23 hours ago we were given ‘Venezuela Oil Revival: Years and Billions Needed’, The USA doesn’t have years and the oil tycoons aren’t willing to invest billions in that direction. It comes with the additional quote “According to TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne, significant investment and time are required to restore Venezuela’s oil production capacity. TotalEnergies is a global multi-energy company that produces and markets energies on a global scale.” And that was for starters, so I get that President Trump must have Greenland, their 57,000 citizens sound more appealing than the 92,600 soldiers that Canada can set up that way when it tries to invade Canada, simple calculus and with that he is attracting the armies of the entire Commonwealth, he could win, but the losses for America will be great. And before we get to that, the USA banks will have cracked. No, Greenland is as I see it the only option he has at present.
But there is doubt in a lot I said in here and there is a fair bit of speculation in all this, there is one thing I am decently certain of (no one is ever 100% correct), the USA is broke and it is about to show. Have a great day.
Two messages passed me by today. The first one was given to us by CNBC (at https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/12/17/oracle-stock-blue-owl-michigan-data-center.html) with the headline ‘Oracle stock dips 5% as Blue Owl Capital pulls out of funding $10 billion data center’ and I wonder why the headline wasn’t ‘Blue Owl Capital pulls out of funding $10 billion data center’ with the optional added “the project remains “on schedule” but that Blue Owl was out of funding talks.” And as we see “Blue Owl had been in talks with Oracle about funding a 1-gigawatt facility for OpenAI in Saline Township, Michigan, according to the Financial Times.” And when we see “the plans fell through due to concerns about Oracle’s rising debt levels and extensive artificial intelligence spending, the FT reported, citing people familiar with the matter. This comes as some investors raise red flags about the funding behind the rush to build ever more data centers. The concern is that some hyperscalers are turning to private equity markets rather than funding the buildings themselves, and entering into lease agreements that could prove risky.” I am wondering why the focus is Oracle and not Blue Owl Capital. Even as others give us ‘Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Is Down 7.1% After Liquidity And BDC-Merger Lawsuits Surface – What’s Changed’ (at https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/diversified-financials/nyse-owl/blue-owl-capital/news/blue-owl-capital-owl-is-down-71-after-liquidity-and-bdc-merg/amp) with “Blue Owl Capital has faced multiple securities class action lawsuits alleging that it misled investors about liquidity pressures tied to redemptions and the planned merger of its business development companies, following weaker-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results and contentious merger terms for OBDC II shareholders.” As well as “Beyond the legal claims, the controversy has highlighted how liquidity constraints, redemption limits, and potential valuation “haircuts” inside key private credit vehicles can affect confidence in Blue Owl’s broader fee-based asset management model.” So the setting could be “Oracle dips because Capital Asset Management cannot get their settings right” it is a speculative statement, but it does hold water in light of what we are shown, so why CNBC focusses on Oracle and not on Blue Owl Capital is beyond me. Is it because kicking a true innovator is more sexy than a Capital Asset Management player? I feel slightly protective of real innovators and as far as I can tell Oracle has been a power for innovation for over 45 years (yes I am that old).
So when we see “Blue Owl Capital’s narrative projects $4.2 billion revenue and $5.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 17.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $5.0 billion earnings increase from $75.4 million today.” And there is the real culprit, players like Blue Owl need to make money and the entire setting for what they call ‘AI’ will not show revenue for over 2 years and that is what is hampering these players (as I personally see it).
So when we see “The person added that Blue Owl was also concerned that local politics in Michigan would cause construction delays. Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks.” I reckon that Blue Owl will move out of at least one other project, as such some players need to step up and it goes without saying that these ‘money makers’ will see stretch marks in their projected revenue womb and it will be a nasty setting for those that are relying on profit per quarter and that was the setting I foresaw almost a year ago and a setting that will bare scrutiny because there are trillions invested and some makers of money will start to realise that as they aren’t making enough money for their shareholders, they will become nervous and as I see it, Google has the inside track now and those relying on OpenAI and Sam Altman will start to see their revenue falter, it is no longer a one player game and that is before we consider where Huawei is going in all this.
The second article ‘Amazon Set to Waste $10 Billion on OpenAI’ (at https://247wallst.com/technology-3/2025/12/17/amazon-set-to-waste-10-billion-on-openai/) the question becomes. Is it really wasted? We see the first setting “OpenAI, which until recently has been the leading artificial intelligence (AI) company in the world, has raised money from a long list of investors. Some are venture capitalists who are simply writing checks to get returns. However, another list consists of money or strategic deals with Microsoft, Oracle, Softbank, Nvidia, and, soon, Disney.” This part raises a question “Some are venture capitalists who are simply writing checks to get returns” the question is part of a timeline. When they get the money is another part of this equation and time is the factor that holds these money loving parties in check, or not as the timeline shifts towards 2028/2029. So as we consider “Bloomberg reports, “OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer’s effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp.” Amazon is a tiny player in the AI chip business. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) dominates, with a market cap of $4.33 trillion, which makes it the most valuable company in the world. Put plainly, the Amazon deal is part of the dangerous “round tripping” that goes on in the industry. One company invests in another. The company that gets the investment uses the money to buy products or services from the investor.” I see something else. Whilst we get that $4.33 trillion is an important part, the larger setting is becoming “Amazon deal is part of the dangerous “round tripping” that goes on in the industry” this implies that “a company selling “an unused asset to another company, while at the same time agreeing to buy back the same or similar assets at about the same price.”” I see it as double dipping, so we have now (apparently ) arrived to the point where the double dipping is greedily seen on 10 billion, whist the invested setting is over 900 times larger. I personally see that as a new venue towards the bottom of the creamy barrel that everyone wants to dip their wallet in, the setting is spend and the money is gone (or at least locked into a set stage of non-revenue) and that is the second setting I see breaking the economic settings apart in 2026, because this will erupt into something a lot less nice long before we reach 2027 and that is close to 2 years ahead of incoming revenue. Do you still think I am boasting? This is not a boast. It is disappointment, because that setting was clear to me almost a year ago when I wrote ‘And the bubble said ‘Bang’’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/29/and-the-bubble-said-bang/) So I saw this coming a mile away and the others were in the dark? I am not that intelligent, I am pretty clever sop these high paid economists should have see this long before me, or were they hoping that THIS time they could outsmart others? Greed is a vicious circle and will only propagate further greed a game without winners and all who play it lose, or they sell others down the river to get their goods. So how did that end in 2008? The movie Inside Job has a few markers, but who ended the game with a full purse tended to be awfully little and they wasted trillions on that idea and now we get a setting more intense and with more money at play all whilst the previous setting is still hurting a lot of people. Now, the impact will be a lot more dangerous with too many people relying on the setting others give whilst not giving them the full story. How does that usually go over?
A stage that could sink America as I see it, but perhaps I am just a radical depressed individual. Have a great day you all. My Friday begins in less than 5 minutes.
It is a specific sound, nothing compares to that and it isn’t entirely fictional. Some might remember the Walter Hill movie Streets of Fire (1984) where two men slug it out with hammers, but that is not it. When a Warhammer slams into metal armor, the armor becomes a drum and that sound is heard all over the battlefield (the wearer of that armour hears a lot more than that sound) but is distinct and I reckon that some of those hammer wielders would have created some kind of crescendo on these knights. So that was ‘ringing’ in my ears when NPR gave us ‘Here’s why concerns about an AI bubble are bigger than ever’ a few days ago (at https://www.npr.org/2025/11/23/nx-s1-5615410/ai-bubble-nvidia-openai-revenue-bust-data-centers) and what will you know. They made the same mistake, but we’ll get to that.
The article reads quite nicely and Bobby Allyn did a good job (beside the one miss) but lets get to the starting blocks. It starts with “A frothy time for Huang, to be sure, which makes it all the more understandable why his first statement to investors on a recent earnings call was an attempt to deflate bubble fears. “There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” he told shareholders. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.”” So then we get three different names all giving ‘their’ point of view with ““The idea that we’re going to have a demand problem five years from now, to me, seems quite absurd,” said prominent Silicon Valley investor Ben Horowitz, adding: “if you look at demand and supply and what’s going on and multiples against growth, it doesn’t look like a bubble at all to me.” Appearing on CNBC, JPMorgan Chase executive Mary Callahan Erdoes said calling the amount of money rushing into AI right now a bubble is “a crazy concept,” declaring that “we are on the precipice of a major, major revolution in a way that companies operate.” Yet a look under the hood of what’s really going on right now in the AI industry is enough to deliver serious doubt, said Paul Kedrosky, a venture capitalist who is now a research fellow at MIT’s Institute for the Digital Economy.” All three names give a nice ‘presentation’ to appease the rumblings within an investor setting. Ben Horowitz, Mary Callahan Erdoes and Paul Kedrosky are seemingly mindset on raking in whatever they can and then the fourth shines a light on this (not in the way he intended) we see “Take OpenAI, the ChatGPT maker that set off the AI race in late 2022. Its CEO Sam Altman has said the company is making $20 billion in revenue a year, and it plans to spend $1.4 trillion on data centers over the next eight years. That growth, of course, would rely on ever-ballooning sales from more and more people and businesses purchasing its AI services.” Did you see the setting. He is making 20 billion and investing $1.4 trillion, now that represents a larger slice and the 20 billion is likely to make more (perhaps even 100 billion a year. And now the sides of hammers are slamming into armour. That still will take 14 years to break even and does anyone have any idea how long 14 years is and I reckon that $1.4 trillion represents (at 4.5%) implies that the interest is $63,000,000,000. That is almost the a year of revenue and that is the hopefully glare if he is making 100 billion a year. So what gives with this, because at some point investors make the setting that the formula is off. There is no tax deductibility. That is money that is due, the banks will get their dividend and whomever thinks that all this goes at zero percent is ludicrously asleep and that is before the missing element comes out.
So then in comes Daron Acemoglu with “A growing body of research indicates most firms are not seeing chatbots affect their bottom lines, and just 3% of people pay for AI, according to one analysis. “These models are being hyped up, and we’re investing more than we should,” said Daron Acemoglu, an economist at MIT, who was awarded the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.” He comes at this from another angle and gives us that we are investing more than we should. All these firms are seeing the pot at the end of the rainbow, but there is the hidden snag, we learned early in life that the rainbow is the result of sunlight on rainwater and it is always curves t be ‘just’ beyond the horizon and it never hits the ground and there will be no pot of gold at the end of it according to Lucky the Leprechaun (I have his fax number) but that was not the side I am aiming for, but it gives the idiocy we see at present. They are all investing too much into something that does not yet exist, but that is beside the point. There are massive options for DML and LLM solutions, but do you think that this is worth trillions? It follows when we get to “Nonetheless, Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft are set to collectively sink around $400 billion on AI this year, mostly for funding data centers. Some of the companies are set to devote about 50% of their current cash flow to data center construction.
Or to put it another way: every iPhone user on earth would have to pay more than $250 to pay for that amount of spending. “That’s not going to happen,” Kedrosky said.” This comes from Paul Kedrosky, a venture capitalist who is now a research fellow at MIT’s Institute for the Digital Economy, and he is right. But that too is not the angle I am going for. But there are two voices, both in their field of vision, something they know and they are seeing the edges of what cannot be contained, one even got a Nobel Memorial Prize for his efforts (past accomplishment) And I reckon all these howling bitches want their government to ‘safe’ them when the bough breaks on these waves. So Andy Jassy, Sundar Pichai, Mark Zuckerberg and Satya Nadella (Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft) will expect the tax system to bail them out and there is no real danger to them, they might get fired but they’ll survive this. Andy Jassy is as far as I know the poorest of the lot and he has 500 million, so he will survive in whatever place he has. But that is the danger. The investors and the taxpayers (you and me) get to suffer from this greed filled frenzy.
But then we get “Analyst Gil Luria of the D.A. Davidson investment firm, who has been tracking Big Tech’s data center boom, said some of the financial maneuvers Silicon Valley is making are structured to keep the appearance of debt off of balance sheets, using what’s known as “special purpose vehicles.””, as well as “The tech firm makes an investment in the data center, outside investors put up most of the cash, then the special purpose vehicle borrows money to buy the chips that are inside the data centers. The tech company gets the benefit of the increased computing capacity but it doesn’t weigh down the company’s balance sheet with debt.” And here we get another failure. It is the failure of the current administration that does not adapt the tax laws to shore up whatever they have for whatever no one has and that is the larger stakeholder in this. We get this in an example in the article stating “Blue Owl Capital and Meta for a data center in Louisiana”, this is only part of the equation. You see, they are ’spreading the love’ around because that is the ‘safe’ setting and they know what comes next. You see the Verge gave us ‘Nvidia says some AI GPUs are ‘sold out,’ grows data center business by $10B in just three months’ (at https://www.theverge.com/tech/824111/nvidia-q3-2026-earnings-data-center-revenue) and that is the first part of the equation. What do you think will power all this? That is the angle I am holding onto. All these data centers will need energy and they will take it away from the people like you and me. And only 4 hours ago we see ‘Nvidia plays down Google chip threat concerns’ and it is all about the AI race, which is as I said non-existent, but the energy required to field these hundreds of thousands of GPU’s is and no one is making a table of what is required to fuel these data centers because it is not on ‘their plate’ but the need for energy becomes real and really soon too. We do not have the surplus to take care of this and when places like Texas give us “Electricity demand is also going up, with much of it concentrated in Texas due to “data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities,”” with the added “Driving the rise in wholesale prices next year is primarily a projected 45% increase at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas-North pricing hub. “Natural gas prices tend to be the biggest determinant of power prices,” the EIA said. “But in 2026, the increase in power prices in ERCOT tends to reflect large hourly spikes in the summer months due to high demand combined with relatively low supply in this region.”” Now this is not true for the whole world, but we see here a “projected 45% increase” and that is for 2026. So where are these data centers, what are their energy surpluses and what is to come? No one is looking at that, but when any data centre is hit with a brownout, or a partial and temporary drop in voltage in an electrical power supply. When that happens any data centre shuts down, energy is adamant for all its GPU’s and their better not we any issue with energy and I saw this a year ago, so why isn’t the media looking into this? I saw one article that that question was not answered and the media just shoved it aside, but as I see it, it should be on the forefront of any media setting. It will happen and the people will suffer, but as I see it (and mentioned) is that the media is whoring for digital dollars and they need their advertisement money from these 4 places and a few more, all ready for advertisement attention and the media plays ball because they want their digital dollars (as I personally see it).
So whilst the NPR article is quite nice, the one element missing is what makes this bubble rear its ugly head, because too many want their coins for their effort and it is what is required. But what does the audience require? And the audience is you an me dear reader. I have set a lot of my requirements to energy falling short, but there is only so much I can do and it is going to be 32 degrees (celsius) today, so what happens when the energy slows down for 5.56 million people in Sydney? Because the Data centers will make a first demand from their energy providers or they will slap a lawsuit worth billions on that energy provider. And we the people (wherever we are) are facing what comes next. Keeping data centers cool and powered whilst we the people boil in our own homes. As such that is the future I am predicting and people think I am wrong, but did they make the calculation of what these data centers require? Are they seeing the energy shortfalls that are impeding these data centers? And the energy providers will take the money and the contracts because it won’t coexist to this, but that is exactly what we are facing in the short run and the investors? Well, I don’t really care about them, they invested and if you aren’t willing to lose it all with a mere card to help you through (card below), you aren’t a real investor, you are merely playing it safe and in that world there are no bubbles.
Remind me, how did that end in 2008? The speculated cost were set to $16 trillion in U.S. household wealth, and this bubble is significantly larger than the 2008 one and this time they are going all in on money, most of them do not have. So that is what is coming and my fears do not matter, but the setting that NPR gives us all with ‘Here’s why concerns about an AI bubble are bigger than ever’ matters and that is what I see coming.
So have a great day and never trust one source, always verify what you read through other sources. That part was shown to be when we all see (from various sources) that “The United States is on track to lose $12.5 billion in international travel spending this year” whilst my calculations made it between 80 and 130 billion and some laughed at my predictions a few months earlier and I get that. I would laugh too when those ‘economics’ state one amount and I come with a number over 700% larger. I get that, but now (apparently) there is an Oxford economics report that gives us “Damning report says U.S. tourism faces $64 billion blow as Trump administration’s trade wars drive away foreign visitors and cut spending”, so I have that to chase down now, but it shows that my numbers were mostly spot on, at least a lot better than whatever those economics are giving you. So never trust merely one source even if they believe to be on the right track. But that is enough about that and consider why some bubble settings are underexposed and when you see that the NPR gave you three additional angles and missed mine (likely not intentional) consider what those investment firms are overseeing (likely intentional) because the setting that they are willing to lose 100% is ludicrous, they have settings for that and as the government bailed them out the last time, they think it will save them this time too.
Have a great day today, I need an ice cream at 4:30 in the morning. I still have some, so yay me.
I saw a message fly past and it took me by surprise. It was CNBC (aka Capitalistically Nothing but Crap) and the accusation was ‘Microsoft and Amazon are hurting cloud competition, UK regulator finds’ (at https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/31/uk-cma-cloud-ruling-microsoft-amazon.html) with “The regulator is concerned that certain cloud market practices are creating a “lock-in” effect where businesses are trapped into unfavorable contractual agreements.” So, that’s a thing now? The operative word is concerned. So, is this the way former Amazon UK boss, Doug Gurr, on an interim basis is showing the world that he released the chain and necktie from Amazon?
There is ‘some’ clustering and as the setting is advocated by some the score at present is “AWS holds approximately 29-31% market share, while Microsoft Azure has around 22-24%, and Google Cloud holds about 11.5-12%” The only surprising thing here is that Google is remarkably behind Microsoft by a little over 10%. Nothing to be worried about, but still the numbers set this out. The infuriating setting by the the CMA giving us “The CMA recommended a further investigation into Microsoft and Amazon under a strict new U.K. competition law to determine whether they have “strategic market status.” I am not ‘attacking’ the CMA, but as the old credence goes “Innovators create corporations, losers create hindrance for others” I suggest you take that as it goes.
Yet there is more behind this all. Forbes gave us last week ‘Microsoft Can’t Keep EU Data Safe From US Authorities’ (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/emmawoollacott/2025/07/22/microsoft-cant-keep-eu-data-safe-from-us-authorities/) where we see “Microsoft has admitted that it can’t protect EU data from U.S. snooping. In sworn testimony before a French Senate inquiry into the role of public procurement in promoting digital sovereignty, Anton Carniaux, Microsoft France’s director of public and legal affairs, was asked whether he could guarantee that French citizen data would never be transmitted to U.S. authorities without explicit French authorization. And, he replied, “No, I cannot guarantee it.”” And this is how Microsoft faces a near death sentence by the American administration. So much so that Microsoft seemingly is creating a data centre solely for the EU. Julia Rone gave us last year (late 2024) “It has been well acknowledged that the European Union is falling behind the US and China when it comes to cloud computing because of its lack of technological capabilities. In a recently published article, however, I argue that there is another important and often overlooked reason for EU’s laggard status: the persistent disagreement between different EU member states, which have very different visions of EU cloud policy.” I take that at face value, as I am considering (through mere speculation) that these member states are connected to American stake holders in media trying to hinder the process, but that is another matter.
So as we see ““Microsoft has openly admitted what many have long known: under laws like the Cloud Act, US authorities can compel access to data held by American cloud providers, regardless of where that data physically resides. UK or EU servers make no difference when jurisdiction lies elsewhere, and local subsidiaries or ‘trusted’ partnerships don’t change that reality,” commented Mark Boost, CEO of cloud provider Civo.” It makes me wonder how America is different from the accusations that America threw in the face of Huawei. It is like the pot calling the kettle black. And this also gives wonder where the accusation against Amazon and Microsoft ends, because the cloud field is seemingly loaded with political players. They all see that data is the ultimate currency and America (as it is near broke) needs a lot of it to pay for the lifestyle they can no longer afford. In Europe the one that stands out (at least to me) is a firm I looked at in 2023 and it is growing rapidly. It is Swedish and not connected to any of the three and could become the largest in Europe. Its long-term vision involves operating eight hyper-scale data centers and three software development hubs across Europe by 2028, employing over 3,000 people. By 2030, the company aims to operate 10 hyper-scale data centers and employ over 10,000 people. There is too much focus on 2030, as I see it the American economy collapses on itself no later than 2028 and as I speculatively see it, it will drag Japan down with itself. That setting required a larger acceleration in both Europe and Asia as America will not play nice as per late 2026. At that point too many people will see where showboat America is heading too and the reefs in that area will be phenomenal. So, as I see it, the entire political swarm behind data centers and fictive AI will require a whole new range of management and I reckon that players like Amazon and Microsoft have never been dealt these cards before, so I shudder to think what will happen when it faces accusations from the EU, the CMA and others. This aligns with the accusation (from one source) giving us “An antitrust complaint filed by Google to the European Commission in September 2024, alleging that Microsoft’s licensing terms unfairly favor its own Azure cloud platform, making it difficult and expensive to use Microsoft software like Windows Server and Office on competing clouds.” I wonder, didn’t Microsoft played a similar game with gaming?
So whilst the infighting is going on on a continued setting, I wonder where Oracle will end up being? As I see it this is rather nice, but I am accusing myself at this point that we aren’t face with a tidal wave, but merely with 5 cups of tea all stating there is a storm happening and whilst the teacups are talking to each other and showing how bad the storm is, the reality is that it is not smooth sailing, but seemingly as close to it as possible. For that you need to see where Evroc is standing, where it is going and how fast it is achieving this. The second market is Oracle, how it is progressing and who it is partnered with (pretty much everyone) and these two elements show us that there are governmental captains stating that their pond is in a dreadful state (whilst presenting their cup of tea as a much larger pool then it is) the corporate captain stating there is a storm brewing, but absent of evidence and the media is flaming every storm it can so that they can get their digital dollars. But consider that Oracle is presenting good weathers and there are alternatives whilst the media actively avoid illuminating Evroc, with only TechCrunch giving us in March “Amid calls for sovereign EU tech stack, Evroc raises $55M to build a hyper-scale cloud in Europe” there were a few more and they are all technical places. The western media is largely absent as there are no digital dollars to be made here.
So consider what you see and try to see the larger picture, because there is a lot more, but some players don’t want you to see the whole image, it distorts their profit prediction. So did you see the little hidden snag? Where is Huawei cloud? Whilst this is going on ‘Huawei hosts conference on cloud technology in Egypt’ where we see that “the event drew more than 600 government officials, business leaders, and ecosystem partners from over 10 countries and regions”, as I see it, this is a classic approach to the “While two dogs are fighting for a bone, a third runs away with it” expression. So consider that part too please.
That is the exercise of this morning. As Reuters treats us to a story (at https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uaes-adnoc-supply-us-lpg-india-following-china-us-tariffs-sources-say-2025-04-29/) giving the reader ‘UAE’S ADNOC to supply US LPG to India following China-US tariffs, sources say’ A setting I saw coming a mile away. As we are given “The move will enable ADNOC to ship more of its own LPG to China, where buyers are paying higher premiums to replace U.S. supply after Beijing imposed steep tariffs on U.S. goods, and reduce LPG costs for India, the world’s No. 2 importer”, so I saw this and the high payed economists in America did not? In my story ‘War of trades’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/02/01/war-of-trades/) I gave on February 1st (almost 3 months ago) “We set the same to India who exports oil to the United States. Set that to Europe (to a much larger degree) and all its Commonwealth allies and America suddenly gets a much larger problem. Well they can import it from Venezuela and Russia I reckon. So, how is that going now President Trump?” This setting was oil and it was from India, so now we see that the UAE is replacing America with India as a new destination. So for America it is no longer about revenue, it becomes a lack of resources as the UAE is now shipping more of its own LPG to China (via India). It is the cumbersome situation involving tariffs. It almost seem like a new puzzle game, not unlike mixed currency deals on the internet. And now (as I see it it) America is losing more than one side in this. So as we read “ADNOC, through its trading units, has agreed to supply some U.S. LPG cargoes to India refiners under the annual contracts from June-July, said sources” as I see it, America is losing tariff revenue that ay and this is merely one step towards a new setting where America is replaced as a resource, and this also means that the political and diplomatic powers of America is dwindling down. In this way the UAE is gaining power both political and diplomatic as India is reassessing what allies they have and who no longer seems to be an ally. In this tariffs will get cumbersome on more ways then one. Soon America is losing additional revenue streams, because this setting is merely a first step. When China sets up new stages with Europe and the Middle East America can go bobbing for apples all they like, but it seems that the apples are being replaced and that sounds a lot like the old premise of murder. Segregation, Separation and Assassination. The stage that we see was made by America, they merely didn’t consider that it could be used against them and as I see it, both China and Russia like the new setting immensely. As I wrote lately that the interest on debt is costing the annual tax revenue to be 15% less, so the belt was already being tightened and now the revenue streams are missing the point they needed to make and another 10% will diminish. So how long until the American economy can no longer afford it? We can believe what Irwin Stelzer (The Times) told us that America’s economy is good. But as CNBC gave us yesterday ‘Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to a summer recession in Apollo’s shocking trade fight timeline’, then we also got a few hours ago ‘Port Of Los Angeles Warns ‘Difficult Decisions’ Ahead As Shipments From China Cease’ (source: Investor’s Business Daily) and 17 minutes ago CNBC gives us ‘Pfizer CEO says tariff uncertainty is deterring further U.S. investment in manufacturing, R&D’ as such, how much more bad news do we need to see before people in media start considering that the economy of America has gone topsy turvy?
And in the meantime as the Commonwealth is strengthening their walls the group of five might soon have one less member (yes, it is America). As such the new costings for the CIA will drastically alter and as the NSA is equally losing access to international intelligence the stage becomes how much money is America willing to pay for less reliable data?
As such we get a new stage of omitted resources. America is losing revenue in several settings and the outcome of that is not really visible, but it will cost a bundle. A lot more than the tariffs are bringing in. In addition to that they pissed of the largest ally they had for decades and as such are losing more ‘friends’ as they are equally hurt and these ‘friends’ are willing to row it alone without the two dinghies called CIA and NSA. As such more power, revenue and friends are lost. But feel free to think it is all honky dory. And that changes when oil will g missing, so will America keep on selling their own oil, or is that a new revenue stream that will become largely lost soon enough.
You know, I am hesitant to blame President Trump for this setting. The question becomes who pushed this agenda? Are these elected officials blind, or will we see soon see articles with titles like ‘He bullied us and we were afraid’, I have no idea. Just floating an idea here. And when we have added these facts as well as add the fact that the The Arab Weekly gave us yesterday ‘Trump further strains Egypt ties by calling for US ships to cross Suez canal ‘free of charge’’ the story (at https://thearabweekly.com/trump-further-strains-egypt-ties-calling-us-ships-cross-suez-canal-free-charge) gives us ““American Ships, both Military and Commercial, should be allowed to travel, free of charge, through the Panama and Suez Canals!, ” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.” Its was the only source I saw, so keep that in mind. And the response in the same article was “Egyptian MP Mustafa Bakri criticised the remarks, describing them an “attempt at blackmail.”” Do you still believe that America isn’t close to default on all their loans? I wonder who will survive that 36 trillion bad bank setting.
So, you all have a possible great day and relax if there is still coffee on the shelves. And don’t forget the former governor of the Bank of England works for the Commonwealth, well, actually he works for Canada, not America. Ciao!
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 