Tag Archives: Aramco

March 17, 2023 · 05:23

Confirmation and standards

That is what I was confronted with over the last 5 hours. I got a message a little before that and we will talk about it. I mentioned it in my previous article. It connects to more, but that is not important right now. What set me off was the article (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2268696/saudi-arabia) where we are given ‘Saudi energy minister: Kingdom will not sell oil to any country that imposes a price cap’. In this I agree, even if it hurts me badly. You see the US has been crying on expensive oil, but the price is set as well by Brent oil, an American firm. One that has the BIGGEST production of oil on the planet.

So when we are given “Spare capacity and global emergency stocks are the ultimate safety net for the oil market in face of potential shocks. I have repeatedly warned that global demand growth will outpace current global spare capacity, while emergency reserves are at a historic low.” I have no other thought but to agree. This has been going on for the better part of 2 decades. No one was complaining when oil was $40, but the setting differs. The US will not buy from Russia (which makes sense) and neither is Venezuela an option. The Arab nations are united in getting the best deal FOR THEM, which is done on a global scale in many commodities, but oil is not the US point of trade, it is THEIR anchor, yet no one looks at Brent oil and what it does, weird, isn’t it? We have seen the massive need to drop dependency on oil and in 2 decades nothing was done. The blame is all on governments for not acting, then 5 years ago an optional sidestep could be made, but the US government pissed of Elon Musk, whilst giving a free ride to that previous Twitter owner, that Dorsey thingamajig. But the Media on a global level REFUSED to ask him the hard questions. And now that it is too late, now that we see that a battery change was required 3-4 years ago, the Governments (especially America) start crying like little bitches. 

When a well can pump 10 cups of water an hour, and there are at any given moment 25 people needing water, some will go thirsty and that setting has been clearly there for over 2 decades. Why was nothing done? So when I see “NOPEC refers to a No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels bill, proposed US legislation that could leave members of OPEC+ open to prosecution under American antitrust laws. The bill, which has been periodically proposed for several years, was revived this month by a bipartisan group of senators in Washington amid ongoing concern about high energy prices.” And here the thought “Are you insane?” pops up. In the first why is Brent Oil not mentioned? And it is so easily fixed. Saudi Arabia (Aramco) could deliver 20% less oil to the US and Europe and sell that to China, everyone happy, or not? It is not a concern for high energy prices, it is the bloody mess of inaction which can be clearly shown for well over a decade and when there was a solution, you pissed off the industrial that could have aided you. So how is that for stupidity?

The second reel
The second reel is different, it is not connected to oil, but optionally to stupidity (as I personally see it). I have seen now confirmation on two of the branches that this will work and due to a few changes, there would be a growing need for the third branch as well. For me it could be good, and could is the operative word as Google was asleep at the wheel and let it pass and Amazon doesn’t seen to be waking up to the billions they can get in this. At present my hope lies with Kingdom Holdings and one other party. That one might not give me the full price, but it is better than nothing, in addition, keeping Microsoft away from there is prime concern, they can only screw up the IP, blame others, point fingers and then refer to miscommunications. I can do without that. There is a small option that Apple might pick it up, but it is not really their turf, so I feel uncertain about that thought. So it is in some regard inverted from oil. Oil everyone wants, and seemingly my IP no one wants. I reckon that the first one that buys it and see what they stand to gain, at that point everyone will come calling, like a Credit Suisse banker with an empty wallet, but that is my weird sense of humour.

The idea that I am right is nice, but I have seen enough confirmations in several directions to know I am right, but that is just me. I still check all forms of verifications, not merely to proof that I am right, but to confirm I was never wrong. That too matters, because I am where banks and oil consumers needed to be, in a place of checks and balances, something both parties require very very fast.

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March 13, 2023 · 22:05

The first letter

Yes, sometimes the connection between articles is merely the first letter, it is what connects Aramco and Amazon. I had several articles to look at but they both started with the first letter. The first article is about Aramco. 

Aramco
The article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-64931074) gives us ‘Aramco: Saudi state-owned oil giant sees record profit of $161bn’ in this, I can tell you right upfront that there are days that I have nowhere near that amount in my wallet (weird eh?) Even as we are given “Aramco rode the wave of high energy prices in 2022,” said Robert Mogielnicki of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “It would have been difficult for Aramco not to perform strongly in 2022.” We might think all kinds of things, but the one that matters is missing. You see, the world removed Russia as a delivery agent of Oil and after that the choices were rather slim and Saudi Arabia was a natural first choice. But then we get a small stab. It is seen with “Aramco – the world’s second-most valuable company only behind America’s Apple – is a major emitter of greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change”, which might be correct, but was it not America and England begging like little chihuahua’s to deliver more oil cheaper? Would that not be a contributing factor to the emissions? So when I see “Responding to Aramco’s announcement, Amnesty International’s secretary general Agnès Callamard said: “It is shocking for a company to make a profit of more than $161bn in a single year through the sale of fossil fuel – the single largest driver of the climate crisis.”” Another partisan response from everyones United Nations joke Eggy Calamari. The individual who seems to be a Saudi hater right of the bat, like her best friend who is a Guardian ‘investigative’ journalist named Stephanie Kirchgaessner. I have written several pieces in this in the past. You see, Eggy can yap like the chihuahua she is all she likes, but lets see what happens when Aramco lowers output by 20%-30%, what BS ballad will she utter then? And towards the Guardian, like the BS articles on private jet owners. The Environmental report a little over 1 year back, when we were given that 50% of all damage came from 147 facilities in Europe, who of them spend any time looking into that? 147 facilities creating 50% of the damage, now that does not put Aramco in the clear, but they are not alone in creating climate issues, but leave it to these two individuals to spin BS. In the meantime lets see what happens when the Saudi government decides to shut the valves if that Calamari individual does not clean her act. Just a thought. Then we get “Saudi Arabia is the largest producer in the oil cartel Opec (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries).” Now this is true, yet the larger truth is that Saudi Arabia is not the greatest producer in the world, that is the USA by a fair amount. As such the Calamari shit becomes a debatable issue on a few sides. As such we need to consider what the Saudi government does when it had enough, when they close the taps by as little as 5%, there will be widespread economic issues for both the US and EU, as such we need to start looking at the actual image, not the image from some hating dodo in the UN building. 

As such in the first yes, Saudi profits are up and the war has something to do with that, but mainly because people stopped buying Russian oil, so how much more oil did Aramco sell because of that? Oh and tanks are expensive they need 3 gallons per mile, how far does one tank go? Now consider that Ukraine has over 400 tanks. That implies 1200 gallons per mile and the war has been going on for over a year. They are not guilty, neither is Aramco. Russia started that event and they are still playing that game. So when we take a look at the bigger picture, Aramco has a commodity that everyone needs, everyone wants and most of them desire. Prices go up especially when Aramco has 100,000 barrels per hour (simple speculation) and each hour people are trying to buy 125,000 barrels. It is a simple economy and it as in place for several decades. So stop whining like chihuahuas and either come with an alternative, buy less oil or shut up. That is my simplistic view on the matter.

Amazon
The second article touches Amazon. I saw it (at https://www.thegamer.com/nobody-wins-if-amazon-luna-succeeds/) it was a debatable article from beginning to end. I have personal connections here, as such, I am a little biased. The title ‘Nobody Wins If Amazon Luna Succeeds’ was like a red flag to a bull. It is wrong on many levels. You see we all win when Luna succeeds. Luna is the beginning of a new stage in gaming. Streaming gaming can up the ante for gaming in many ways, I have written about it several times. It allows for much larger games, it allows for more versatile games and for an evolving game line. Now this is all possible on a PS5 (a console I love), but only in limited way at present. Nintendo cannot go near this because it is limiting in other ways. Still the Nintendo Switch is a system I love and now that Metroid Prime remastered is released I play it a lot more than anything else. That too is gaming. After 21 years Metroid Prime is just as addictive and beautiful as it ever was and I still claim that no FPS can get near this game, this game is a reason to buy a Switch, even as aSony fat with my PS4 and PS5 I make that claim. Gaming is seen in many stages and many ways and the Luna is merely the next wave towards gaming. The next issue is “Amazon Luna and Google Stadia have the same problem – there simply aren’t enough games to guarantee success” that is a mistake that both Amazon and Google had, I set the premise to almost guarantee 50 million subscriptions (one essential rule comes into play) and they had the option to win this, but Google dropped the cloth and evicted the stage, now Amazon has the option to rule it all alone with plenty of games too, so whomever is making that claim (a Tessa Kaur), she is not looking at the field, there is a lot more and some makers had a starting advantage, but apparently they squandered the advantage and now indie developers could end up with the larger stage. So as we get to “It’s the same with game hardware – they’ll discontinue the PlayStation 4 one day, I won’t be able to repair it when it gasps its last gasp. That will be that, all my games will be unplayable.” We get the first element. The article mentions NOTHING about Microsoft, why is that? Yes, they will discontinue the PS4 at some point, yet at present I will have had a PS4 for well over 11 years and several of these games can be played on the PS5, so I could have that one game for another decade, that part is missing too. The element also missing is that any streaming system will need a proper 5G connection, in many cases there are issues with 4G and 5G is still in a deployment stage in some countries a hell of a lot more then in others. The other element missing is that streaming gaming sucks in rural areas which amount to well over 35% of Europe. We do not see that either. I believe that the Luna is the next generation and with a fully deployed 5G it becomes a hell of a lot better and when developers start thinking of streaming as the ultimate goal, not some game that ALSO plays on the Luna, the game changes a lot more in favour of the Amazon Luna. Streaming is the future and we are only seeing the start of it at present. Microsoft is making their Xbox cloud gaming claims and they are hopelessly lost. Even as they are betraying their population, even as their consoles are not getting it done, they stand to lose a lot against Sony (console) and Amazon (cloud) and that is their real fear. Google might have bailed, but that doesn’t mean that Amazon will too, they actually have a few additional options that they might not have considered yet (speculation on my side). And that is where Apple comes in. If Apple (in their own way) starts in this field, Amazon will have a tough opponent. Microsoft is hopelessly lost and when Apple comes into play they will be doomed. But that is for 2024 I reckon. So far I have faith that Amazon will deliver in the end and create forward momentum in cloud gaming. They need not spin anything, they merely have to create the titles and the population, a setting they have a better hand on then Microsoft ever did. But that is merely my view on the matter.

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September 18, 2022 · 15:16

The new student

There is a class, this class is out there and it has many students. Yet its teacher had never expected that the BBC would be joining his class and this teacher is beside himself. The teacher is Mediocrates and his Syllabus called ‘Thats good enough’ has been handed from student to student for generations. Yet until today this teacher had never considered that the BBC would be joining him, and he is happy, he is very very happy.

This all started some time ago, yet for me to see another MBS bashing exercise is just too much, especially when it comes from the BBC. The article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-62940906) gives us ‘Mohammed Bin Salman: Saudi prince’s controversial invitation to the Queen’s funeral’. In the first Why controversial? He is the de facto ruler of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. So far not a biggie, but then we get “A declassified CIA report concluded that the crown prince had authorised the murder and dismemberment of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul in 2018”

So lets make a little list

  1. The CIA report did not do that, it stated that it was highly likely, which is not the same. By the way this is the same organisation that send former secretary of state Colin Powell with a shining silver suitcase to places like a rockstar with the evidence that Iraq had WMD’s. So how many were found in the end? Not any did they? At that presentation they had graphics, now they have less than nothing. The rule of law states that a person is innocent until PROVEN guilty and the prove is missing on many levels. Even the hack job that the UN report represents never properly analysed the recordings, it gets worse that there is no one had ACTUALLY heard the entire recording and that is on Turkey. Then we get the ‘dismemberment’ part, there was no evidence of any kind that this had happened, merely the figment of some limelight seeking individual, and no evidence is showing that this ever happened.
    We now have all kinds of rumours. One is of him and a 20 year old mistress going to Tahiti. I doubt that there is anyone believing that story, but you can find creative yo-yo’s on any street-corner. 

REALITY CHECK

  1. Did something happen to JK? I speculate that this is the case and there is nothing to support that he had any other plans then to go back to his fiancee.
  2. Can we prove that something happened? No, there are strong indications, but no evidence. And in this Turkey, the tool of Iran played a very dangerous game. It is my belief they never had anything, but Turkey wanted to please Iran and the lack of forensic evidence on the tapes as well as the fact that those tapes were never fully revealed plays towards my view on the matter. Is it not interesting that the Washington Post never demanded their release? It made all kinds of other claims, claims that lack evidence, but the release of those tapes were demanded, the same could be said for the United Nations who had their tools attack the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but presented no evidence that actually holds water.

Then we get “The pressure group Campaign Against the Arms Trade (CAAT) has accused Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies of using the Queen’s funeral as a way to – in their words – “whitewash” their human rights records.” Here we have a different situation. The CAAT (or the group of tea grannies holding a banner) as I would see it have been clear about accusing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but they never made clear loud mentions of Houthi terrorists and Iran arms supplies, did they? Here the western media has gone out of its way to keep silent regarding the actions of Iran (like drone attacks on civilian targets in southern Saudi Arabia). They gave no visibility to the presentations of Colonel Turki bin Saleh Al-Maliki who on more than one occasion gave the media the clear evidence of Iranian drones. Yet the WSJ had no problems showing the application of “Iranian Kamikaze Drones Creates New Dangers for Ukrainian Troops”, why is that? Do the stake holders and share holders like the Ukrainian side of the matter? The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been forced to fight with one hand on its back against Houthi terrorists for too long. Yet the people and the media had no issue sending Boris Johnson to Riyadh talking about cheap oil. So why would they do that? It is my personal belief that the media has done everything it could to prolong this war. An event that started 8 years ago almost to the day and could have been resolved 5 years ago, but that did not fit with the needs of stakeholders hoping to get some cash out of Iran (a speculative view) and that is not all, the captured smuggling shipments from Iran did not make the news either, so what gives?

Finally there is a stage that most ignore. These acts ‘supporting’ Iran will have a much higher cost soon enough, when that happens will the media make a true call to action and a call to answer from media stakeholders or will they silent and mute like with Martin Bashir? 

The largest folly is the Aramco attacks on 14 September 2019. It is impossible for Houthi forces to have done that, yet everyone was so eager to accept that it was a Houthi attack. To give an example. I am a goalie (ice-hockey) and I would love to be the Goalie for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but I lack the skills to be THAT good a goalie, as such Kyle Dubas (aka the Elvis Costello of the NHL), the general manager of the Maple Leafs will never put me on that spot, I am not god enough. It hurts, but that is fair. That lack of skill is essential. There is NOT ONE Houthi operative that has that skill level. The news gave us that 25 drones and missiles were used. So we either have an amateur rifleman how shoots near perfect bulls-eyes 25 times in a row, or Houthi forced found 25 operatives all getting near perfect hits in place. Such statistics are a fable, yet the media just swallowed the story and there is the problem, the media can no longer be trusted and now we see the BBC signing up for classes by Mediocrates.

There is a lot more but why bother, I reckon that certain people will not care. 

So when we see “All of which partly explain why international criticism of the crown prince is muted at most”, I merely respond

“Frank Gardner, you idiot. How much visibility have YOU given to the Iranian part of that equation? How much evidence did you test and read? Or was this just a hatchet paint-job so that the CAAT gets one more mention?”

Is Saudi Arabia a perfect nation? I doubt it and it would be for Muslims to give voice to that, I am not Muslim and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a Muslim monarchy. I reckon from my side, the most perfect nation in the world is likely to be New Zealand and Canada is in that top 5 as well. Two Commonwealth nations and they got their with the guidance of Queen Elisabeth 2. It will not have been directly, but she was a guiding force. The rest have a lot to answer for and this BBC article shows us that the UK has its own media skeletons all over its bloody field. 

This might be a decently valid article and their might be some concerns regarding the presence of some people according to others, but her Majesty kept global peace (for the most) for over 70 years. I think we can all shut the hell up and let the international dignitaries pay their last respect.

Did I oversimplify the matter?

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September 12, 2022 · 20:59

Goodwill has implications

Yes, it is always an interesting wash when people make claims towards the setting of goodwill. So when Reuters gives its readers ‘Iran urges Saudi Arabia to show goodwill in talks to revive ties’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-urges-saudi-arabia-show-goodwill-talks-revive-ties-2022-09-12/). I have certain questions. We are given “Iran has no preconditions in its talks with Saudi Arabia, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said on Monday, calling on Riyadh to adopt a “constructive approach” to improve ties” yet the statement by Nasser Kanaani is dripping in falsehood. 

  1. Arming Houthi terrorists that enabled Houthi forces to attack Saudi civilian targets
  2. The drone attacks on Aramco on 14 September 2019 could NOT have been done by Houthi forces. 

In addition, the CSIS reported on December 21st 2021 “The number of Houthi attacks against predominantly civilian targets in Saudi Arabia doubled over the first nine months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, according to new CSIS analysis. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force and Lebanese Hezbollah have played a critical role in providing weapons, technology, training, and other assistance to the Yemen-based Houthis” and that is merely the tip of the ice berg. So why does Saudi Arabia need to show goodwill?

The fact that most western media has been one-sided in its reporting and attacking Saudi points of view at nearly every step does not mean we all accept the statements of Iran. In this the media should take time to listen to the findings from Colonel Turki Al-Maliki, but Reuters and a few others are not willing to do that, are they?

This is again some play to listen to poor poor Iran, so that western egocentric politicians can make a case of progress even though all sides know that they are getting played by Iran. So whilst we are given “Iran will respond proportionately to any constructive action by Saudi Arabia”, Iran will continue to support Houthi forces to attack Saudi civilian targets. In all this when we realise the larger game, what goodwill should be shown and who of the two has a much larger need to show any goodwill? And it was only 4 days ago when we were given ‘42 killed in Houthi attacks in Taiz during truce’ (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2158346/middle-east) did you think that this was possible if Iranian military support was not there? Iran has been pushing for Middle Eastern instability for the longest time and it is time that we took a much harder look at that. And with that part we see the setting of falsehood given by Nasser Kanaani and it was not hard to see the evidence, people like Colonel Turki Al-Maliki have been showing the blind and deaf western media this evidence for well over three years now, but it does not fit well with the needs of egocentric politicians. Their mind is set on the title of evangelists of peace, even though they are willing to fit the robes of a false prophet to get there, because the media is aiding them in this effort. It is time to get the whole story and I fear it will be too late when the delay games of Iran pays off with damage that no one can overcome for many years to come. 

But I might be wrong and exaggerate it all. Read up from more sources and form your own opinion. 

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August 30, 2022 · 03:51

The opposite point of view?

That was the setting I looked t when I saw the article in the New Arab (at https://english.alaraby.co.uk/analysis/saudi-arabias-line-neom-project-too-ambitious) where we see ‘Is Saudi Arabia’s ‘The Line’ NEOM project too ambitious?’ The title gives us a handle and my first question is should that not be the case? Now we take the Empire State Building for granted, but in 1930, people thought the same regarding the Empire State Building. Things need to be too ambitious. The entire setting of Neom and the Line is too ambitious, because this has NEVER been done before. And even if people write it into the ground calling it a ‘gazillion dollar project’ the truth is that they are writing fear, because I personally guarantee you that they would not write that if it was a US project. Two architectural projects and both as in Saudi Arabia. But back to the article. We then get ““In the aftermath of the pandemic, economic rehabilitation is at the forefront of all countries’ political agendas. This is why Saudi Arabia will have no issues in filling any labour gaps with regards to construction and investments in the project itself,” Siddiqa explained.” This is a fair point and every nations has this hurdle, as such I do not see a real problem, a hurdle, not an obstacle. Again a fair point is seen with “NEOM is not without its challenges, some of which Riyadh has addressed and others which remain an obstacle. Financial challenges are the biggest obstacle for mega projects like NEOM and The Line. Research shows that Saudi Arabia has not been able to achieve much success in attracting financial resources and investment from foreign governments and companies.”, what I would like to add is that these companies were eager to invest when oil was their fortune, but investing in something that they at present do not understand is somewhat understandable, greed needs assurances and they have an image (of greed) to uphold. Then the article throws a reality our way. With “While the initial plan was to complete NEOM by 2030 with an allotted $500 billion, some reports claim that the city may not be completed until 2050, which will likely increase costs significantly. For this reason, it is predicted that the entire project, including The Line, will cost the Kingdom $1 trillion.” And here we see the first larger hurdle. With ‘the city may not be completed until 2050’ which is true, but now we also see the essential need to hold onto the larger need for perfection and precision. Any party that cuts corners will become the foundation of failure for the entire project and even if only one phase is ready in 2030, the KSA will show to be a global game changer. And lets fave it, on this day and age that delay is not the biggest one. The line is a city for 9 million people. Rome was not build in a day and that is a fair notion to take. If it helps, I reckon that my IP for Augmented Reality could optionally make an optional larger difference there. But the larger truth is that the Empire State Building took a year to make, the Line is over 200 times larger and as such getting it all ready by 2050 is still an amazing feat, more important it is a building no one else has been able to build as well as a first building to allow nature to restore. That setting is a larger achievement. More important I reckon that the side development in material waste and sewage will have larger repercussions for the internal development of any city and such part have never been this centralised before. A place where pollution stops. Consider London where we would suddenly halt ALL car traffic for a week. The impact of cleaner air would be seeable and sense by all, a city 50% smaller and it has that impact, so what spin will the KSA receive when others offer their version of complexities? Then we are given a part that I found debatable. It is “The financial viability of PIF is highly dependent on the Kingdom’s oil exports, a market that has proven volatile in recent years. In 2020, Riyadh faced a significant fiscal deficit of more than $79 billion. In a country where around 60% of its financial resources came from oil and just 9% from non-oil exports in 2021, the financing of the NEOM project is likely to face financial ups and downs.” So, yes we get ‘In 2020, Riyadh faced a significant fiscal deficit of more than $79 billion’ this is true, but what about 2022? The guardian gave us (months ago) ‘Largest oil and gas producers made close to $100bn in first quarter of 2022’ and two weeks ago we got “Aramco had a 90% year-on-year increase and marks the biggest earnings for the world’s largest energy exporter since its public listing three years ago.” As such the 2020 point of view for a 2022 article makes a lot less sense. And the reference of “around 60% of its financial resources came from oil” might sound fair (or at least correct) but both Neom and the Line show us that this could change, a city with no cars means 4,000,000 less cars creating pollution, needing no gasoline are clear markers in that change. And when the achievement is established other nations will want the same event (especially in Texas where they now start to have energy problems). A stage that could export Saudi skills in other ways too. One significant hurdle is shown with “the biggest technical problem that Saudi Arabia will face in NEOM is the reliance on foreign skilled workers, an issue that is unlikely to be resolved in the short term.” This was true and yes it was a problem, but I illuminated that with “there is now a decent chance that the small hidden engineering texts will be Arabic/Chinese and not Arabic/English. A station that was always likely to happen, but now it seems it is becoming the passing of a fact” a side I saw solved on August 11th 2022, a week before this article was written. I set that in ‘Stirring the soup’, a stage I saw coming a mile away and that too is the larger defeat for the west, especially as China has both the upper echelon and lower echelon of workers, workers Saudi Arabia will need and a job market that is now closing for Europe and America. A longer set of issues that hd been out and open for all to see, now the Silk Road gets the chance to build whilst fuelling itself with oil and revenue, both at the same time. I reckon that Strasbourg never considered that. How interesting that I had done that.

In the end my point of view is that there is no ‘too ambitious’, it comes with the terrain of creating something never done before, as long as the decision makers realise that 2030 is not a static point of completion, they will end up being in a good place. Even completing Phase one by 2030 is an achievement not found anywhere else in the world at present and that completion takes the project crown away from America, not a bad first result. And in all this the redesign of world powers might also be a first, with the chance that China becomes the worlds first power and America? Well they will have to content with the number 6 slot, that is also a consequence of catering to Wall Street, the larger view is lost when the spreadsheet users were all set on next quarter, not next decade. In this I will shown to have been correct yet again. I wonder what else I could see in the near future.

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July 18, 2022 · 20:47

For those not seeing the oil field

There is a larger field, a larger oil field if you wish. And the people aren’t getting it. I get it, it isn’t an easy equation and it is not really your fault, because the media is guilty as hell in all this, but lets start at the beginning (well, some kind of beginning). One such headline is ‘Oil trumps human rights as Biden forced to compromise in Middle East’, it is one way to look at it, but it is the wrong way. My headline would have been ‘Greed is eternal at the expense of everything else’. The point here is that we get to see a few sides that the media is not giving us. It starts with the oil and that part is a lot more important than you think it is.  So lets take a look at the three nations and the barrels per day they pump.

United States11,184,870
Russia10,111,830
Saudi Arabia (OPEC)9,313,145

So America pumps out a lot of oil, now it makes perfect sense that they will not deal with Russia, but it is at present still an unequal information package.

You see the United States exported about 8.63 million barrels per day (b/d) and imported about 8.47 million b/d of petroleum. And now you think it does not make sense. So lets just say that the US is selling oil at $50 a barrel and buys it at $35 a barrel, so they get 8 million (rounded) times $15, is $120 million of profit a day and that amounts to $43.8 billion a year. Profit they basically got for free. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is not willing to give away $43.8 billion after the way the US treated the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. There is just so much any person will take and I reckon the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has taken enough of the treatment handed to them. So the US instead of catering to self sells 73% of all the oil they pump, so why should the KSA after the way they were treated cater to that situation? Even an alternative that the us keeps 50% of their sales, they hand the KSA 50% it might be seen as a compromise. The US could stop selling 2,500,000 barrels a day and cater to its own needs, but the profit of some are not easily swayed. They are seemingly willing to let the US population freeze to death (or boil to death). And these numbers are out there, the media has had them for the longest time. All these BS articles on going crude oil free whilst the US is selling 73% of whatever they drill. Seems a little hypocritical, doesn’t it? 

That 73% does cater to 176 countries and 4 U.S. territories, no one denies that, but the profit goes somewhere and not all of it to the US coffers owned by the US treasuries. Someone is getting rich and the media is happy for you to be in the dark about it. Ask yourself “How many media outlets have given view of the amount sold? Why is the US short on oil whilst the oil harvested goes somewhere else?” I get it, there is a need for profit, no one denies that, but we see all these articles that imply and suggest that the Saudi’s are the bad paty whilst the US is trying to get cheap oil so that they can sell it at a profit. And believe me, when we change the prices of the earlier given $50 and $35 into the real numbers the equation changes really quick and the numbers become exceedingly large. 

So why should the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia hand over profit that they are entitled to? Did you honestly think that Aramco was some non profit organisation? If it is it will be non profit for Saudi Arabia and its citizens, not for the US and their citizens, or the 176 countries that they could cater to. And the media does not really give you that, do they? So when the Guardian gives us “Brent crude hit a 14-year high of $139.13 a barrel in March, fuelling global inflation and a worldwide cost of living crisis. In the US, inflation is at 9.1% and accelerating, which is likely to translate into lost seats for the Democratic party in November’s midterm elections.” What happens when they sell 2.5 million barrels a day less and let that go to the US shortage? The equation changes by a lot does it not? 29% less sales will be felt all over the US and by Brent in particular, so why exactly does the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia need to play ball with the US, especially when China is exceedingly courting Saudi Arabia for all kind of goods and when I see the revenue setting of 375 billion + 530 billion that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is spending on improving Saudi Arabia, there is every setting where the US has overplayed its hand and China is now in a premium position to get their revenue balls rolling. A setting I warned about before Covid before 2019, there were courters in the field and when that overpriced US plane wasn’t going there, China could sell the Chengdu J-20 at a nice price to Saudi Arabia (I admit I was trying to get my foot in the door and make a play for a simple 3.75% commission), and when you consider that this bill might go up to 15 billion, my 3.75% makes for a nice half a billion (we all have overly big dreams), and merely to play the courier? You have got to be kidding, I am so ready for that part! 

But this was about oil and the US played the wrong hand several times over (like shaking hands with air) and now Saudi Arabia and especially Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud might feel that the US played them for a fool and the problems start when the US could not afford problems. A stage where we see that Brent Crude is not so innocent and the media should have been on top of this, but I will let you people decide how that should be seen.

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May 15, 2022 · 15:06

Time as a factor

There are a few issues, I could sum them all up, but that is actually counter productive. You see, time does not adhere to anything, it is the big brother of nature, it creeps up on you and just when you think you have time left, it pulls the rug from under you and you have run out of time. The first example is ‘Energy shortage warnings across US’ the source does not matter (they are too busy using news as advertisement tokens) but the news can be found all over the field. And it is not merely the US, the EU (a Dutch example was given by me this year), the UK as well as several other places. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, Russia and a few other players, most are running out of energy options. There is a solution and Elon Musk and his energy solutions are part of the solution, I even gave a limelight on ‘Darkness through inaction’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/10/10/darkness-through-inaction/) on October 10th 2021 and even more around June 2020 with ‘Musings’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/06/18/musings/) there was more before that. I know Time, I have seen its many sides so I do know what running out of means. I reckon Elon Musk and others too. Driven to the next milepost they give the world more and more, but the governments and the greedy wannabe’s are making deals to take a sliver of that pie, willing to sink whatever saves them, because living in poverty is worse than death, so they will do whatever they can to stop the process, but now the energy shortages are adding up. We are running out of time and we might merely have 2 summer seasons left where EVERYONE can afford energy, after that all bets are off. So when we see the BS jerking around COP26, when we realise that we cannot evade oil and petrochemical solutions for now we see that those trying to bring us solutions are getting hindered by those who want to be in charge of it all, because energy becomes the next currency. Feel free to doubt this, but Saudi Aramco is now worth $2.3 trillion dollars making it the richest corporation on the planet. In less than three weeks it grew 15%, you still think I am full of it? And the Ukrainian mess does not help, as the EU and others refuse and ban Russian oil and gas, their situation bites more. A setting that was out in the open before the Russian situation started and it was out in the open. We merely ran out of time faster and I reckon that if the media does not openly expose those hindering some solutions are not given the limelight they deserve you will learn the hard way how expensive 2023-2024 will get. As I grew up I saw prices rise, but I never considered that essential needs like power, heating and food would become unaffordable. Time learned me that lesson the hard way. No matter how we look, we cannot see all elements coming for us and I like many (unless I sell my IP) will see heating, food, and electricity needs and like many others I will only be able to pay for two of them, so what will become out of reach for me? I cannot tell, it will be a roll of the dice.

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April 16, 2022 · 17:33

What’s the name, what’s the game?

I saw the news a few days ago, and for the most it does not matter to me, but there is an awful lot of hypocrisy going around and the media is (as I personally see it) as tainted as anything else. The stage is set to Elon Musk, or better stated is set against Elon Musk. Why? Don’t really know the man, but he seems the modern day Midas. Whatever he touches turns to gold. He made an upheaval in the battery market, the mobile market, the energy market. The man is (allegedly) an inventor like me, or he can see proper innovation just like Steve Jobs. How is this a bad thing? Consider the news that he was getting involved in social media. Why not? I do not know if it is a bad idea. But he has the dough to become part of it. Yet the Sydney Morning Herald gives us ‘Elon Musk launches $58 billion hostile takeover of Twitter’ (at https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/elon-musk-launches-hostile-takeover-of-twitter-20220414-p5admv.html) as such lets take a look at what constitutes a hostile takeover? The definition gives us “A hostile takeover occurs when an acquiring company attempts to take over a target company against the wishes of the target company’s management. An acquiring company can achieve a hostile takeover by going directly to the target company’s shareholders or fighting to replace its management” is this true? CBS gives us ‘Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter for $43 billion’, so who is giving us the truth and who is giving a stakeholder a blow job? You think this is rude? You ain’t seen nothing yet. We can argue until the sun goes down, but the setting of finance is clear. If a company is worth it, or could become worth it, you buy it. This has been the case in many occasions. Yet no one is saying that about Microsoft and Blizzard. There we get ‘Activision Blizzard/Microsoft Deal Discouraged by Letter Penned by SOC Investment Group’, how quaint.

So it was today when I saw (at https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-adopts-poison-pill-fight-musk-2022-04-15/) ‘Twitter adopts ‘poison pill’ as challenger to Musk emerges’, it is the Guardian version where we see “The method, known as a “poison pill” in the finance world, suggests Twitter will fight Musk to prevent a hostile takeover. It would go into effect if a shareholder were to acquire more than 15% of the company in a deal not approved by the board and expires 14 April 2023.”You see my issue is with the ‘hostile takeover’ part. The guardian gives us those goods with “Jack Dorsey, Twitter founder and former CEO, noted in a tweet on Friday that such surprise purchases are always a risk for the company. “As a public company, Twitter has always been ‘for sale’,” he said. “That’s the real issue.” Musk is already facing legal action for his Twitter purchases, with one investor suing the Tesla executive in a potential class action lawsuit for failing to disclose his buy-up of shares before the required deadline to do so. The lawsuit comes as Musk faces a number of investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission for his investment activities, including insider trading allegations related to his own tweets.” So we see ‘insider trading’, we see ‘hostile takeover’ but we are given no real evidence of either. Merely the word ‘allegations’ that everyone is overlooking. 

The stage becomes even weirder as we consider the actions that Microsoft unleashed on the gaming industry and it is casually trivialised by too many media outlets. 

In all this the statement “he wanted to release its “extraordinary potential” to support free speech and democracy across the world.” Is trivialised by “Twitter’s board on Friday unanimously approved a plan that would allow existing shareholders to buy stocks at a substantial discount in order to dilute the holdings of new investors”, there is no real setting of who these board members are, the media seemingly forgot about that part. These members that include Bret Taylor (SalesForce), Parag Agrawal (CEO Twitter), Mimi Alemayehou (Mastercard), Egon Durban (Silver Lake), Martha Lane Fox (House of Lords), Dr. Fei-Fei Li (Stanford), Patrick Pichette (Google), David Rosenblatt and Robert Zoellick (AllianceBernstein Holding L.P.) there was a unanimous objection to the purchase by Elon Musk and no media outlet had anything from these members with the simple question ‘Why oppose?’. There might be a very valid reason, but I and all others were not informed, so what gives?

We can speculate on why it was done. Elon Musk sees that the US is going after the billionaires. As such he might be buying anything he can to drop the tax rift, and lets face it, he has been turning things to gold and Twitter is a golden idea. So whilst we see all kinds of objections on how analysts see (and say) things like “KeyBanc Capital analyst Justin Patterson downgraded the social media company in the wake of Elon Musk’s buyout proposal. Patterson cut his rating to sector weight, after being at overweight since January 2021, saying that the potential for the Musk bid to “go up in smoke” will turn investor focus on a more challenging macro environment that elevates downside risk to financial estimates.” I personally honestly do not know what will happen, but when a person buys a company, a person that has transformed several companies into powerhouses, I wonder what really is going on. It could be simple, it could be complex, yet the larger station is that people laughed at Tesla and now we see “As of April 2022 Tesla has a market cap of $1.018 Trillion. This makes Tesla the world’s 6th most valuable company by market cap according to our data.” So as I see it, the joke is on them. What was an idea is now 6th on the most valuable companies on the market and that is behind Apple, Microsoft, Aramco, Alphabet, and Amazon and as I gave voice to Microsoft, there is every chance that it will head of Microsoft in the next 3 years. And that is whilst no one has a clue where Meta will end, because they will become part of the top 7 soon enough (2024), and that too is out into the market. So I have questions and the media is not asking the board members of Twitter, or Elon Musk a clear set of questions. And all that before someone decides to ask KeyBanc Capital a few uncomfortable questions. So what is in the name Twitter, what is in the name Elon Musk and what is in the shares game being played now. No matter what is happening, I feel certain that the media will not properly inform us, that mush seems a personal given. Yet in all this we see the approximation of “to support free speech and democracy across the world”, it seems to me that Elon Musk is giving us options, options in mobile technology and energy technology. Who else has been giving us that? I see questions and no one asking them, it is weird, is it not?

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April 6, 2022 · 19:57

The three day delay

Yes, it is not new, I had my go on this a few times, yet due to what we see now, after three days, it is time to renew this event. It started basically in 2014, the Yemen war became something serious and the west had no idea how to react. They reacted poorly and to make matters worse, events driven by Iran was kept out of the news. The people got a one sided story. Over time weapons sales went stale, were blocked and the defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was a setting of debate by people who had no clue what was going on, because the ego trippers needed their Iran peace accord through a nuclear deal, something that even now is still not done. Matters became worse when the west decided to spin the events around Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018. So even as the press al invoked “By 16 November 2018, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had concluded that Mohammed bin Salman ordered Khashoggi’s assassination.” In this that the CIA stated that is was highly likely that this had happened, but no evidence was EVER brought to light. No evidence that could survive the rigours of academic investigations. The essay by the United Nations did not help any, that is for certain. Then we get the hack of Jeff Bezos, a disgracefully inadequate report by FTI Consulting. It is important to take notice of the Verge (at https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/23/21078828/report-saudi-arabia-hack-jeff-bezos-phone-fti-consulting) that also gives us “Facebook’s former chief security officer Alex Stamos, for example, said that there was “no smoking gun” in the report. Some researchers said that FTI should have been able to analyze the encrypted file that the crown prince sent Bezos which reportedly hacked his phone. And one said he didn’t see evidence in the report to suggest that Bezos’ phone was hacked.” I believe that Jeff got hacked, but there is no clear evidence WHO did the job, but there were some wannabe reporters that were really happy to blame the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. Even though several newspapers earlier that week showed that certain hacks allowed people to pretend they were someone else, and that too is missing from the FTI report. 

So we have all these negativity, projected on the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and now the US wants a favour? You have got to be shitting me!

So we get back to the article where we see “Why should America’s regional allies help Washington contain Russia in Europe when Washington is strengthening Russia and Iran in the Middle East?” And this is the larger folly, a stage where the wrong people cater to Iran, all whilst they require other stuff too, but you cannot get it both ways and now that China is stepping in gobbling up billions upon billions in sales and services, we see the US in a stage of denial. They now need cheap oil, all whilst the two largest suppliers are set to the mind that premium prices will do just as well. And I warned for these situations for years, but everyone was in denial. It would never come to that and now that it is coming to that, the US, the EU and others are in denial on what is required. So at present the oil prices are on the rise, just for how long is impossible to say, yet we also acknowledge that reserves are being used to stop the rise. Just how long until that stops? What do you think will happen when the reserves are gone, because most nations do not have that much in reserve. They can avoid the winter this year, but that will drain the reserves and even as they can build up some of those reserves during summer, winter 2022 will show to be the year that people will need to choose, be warm, avoid hunger and pay rent/mortgage and there is every consideration that many households will only be able to do one of the three, two if they are lucky. 

That is the direct impact of catering to the populist view, the price of adjusting one view for another, one deciding on what was likely, not what could be proven, ignoring what was proven (Iran attacks) and catering to something that is still not a reality (Iranian nuclear agreement) and Iran has clearly been catered to and now the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are telling you all that enough is enough. You want oil at a premium, you got it and at a premium means that within the next 12-15 weeks oil prices might get back to the $130 marker, at that point, how much will it cost you to get groceries, to get to work, to get home and to refuel? All that whilst these two nations are now looking at China to deliver defence systems. Slap upon slap upon slap and now 19 hours ago we were given ‘Iran Says U.S. Is Responsible for Stalled Talks on Reviving Nuclear Deal’, another fiasco and the involved political players are all in hiding as not to get painted with that fiasco. So when you wonder what happened to the oil prices, it is simple. Your government royally screwed up and gave you the bill for their failure. 

So good luck with that.

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March 17, 2022 · 17:40

Ding, ding, prices are going up

After I wrote ‘A symphony in only two parts?’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/16/a-symphony-in-only-two-parts/) two articles appeared (might have been more, but these two lighted up). The first one is from a place called oilprice dot com. The article (at https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Arabia-Considers-Ditching-The-Dollar-For-Chinese-Oil-Sales.html) gives us ‘Saudi Arabia Considers Ditching The Dollar For Chinese Oil Sales’ with the added “According to the report, the talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom.” OK, that is fine, but I reckon the way Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud has been treated by some will not have helped. Moreover if China sets the barricades of pushing forward and aiding SAMI in getting the internal growth desired these pushes might come to fruition. We are also given “China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports, and if priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency, and set the Chinese currency on a path to becoming a global petroyuan reserve currency.” I feel uncertain to answer that part, but consider that there is a limit to oil, consider that China will request not the 25% they get now, but 30%, with an overcapacity of amount X, now consider that Saudi Arabia (ARAMCO) does that and therefor the US (and west) will now receive 5% minus X less. Prices will skyrocket. More importantly in the last hours we saw ‘Boris Johnson Visits U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, Seeking More Oil’ and here too we see the British PM go home without any commitments, CNN even gives us ‘Biden demands faster drop in gas prices as oil tumbles’, so where is he going to demand that from? Russia? Venezuela? UAE? Saudi Arabia? The man who was desperately outspoken about making Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah is now telling that same person to drop prices? Man does karma suck and then some? We see the stage of painful karma in article one, but why article two? That is seen as we contemplate the title ‘Saudi Arabia’s Oil-For-Yuan Bid Won’t Threaten the Dollar’ (at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-16/saudi-arabia-s-oil-for-yuan-proposal-won-t-threaten-the-dollar) it is a good and decent piece, but an opinion piece none the less. There we get “Is there a situation more absurd than two of the world’s most dollar-dependent economies promising to free themselves from the exorbitant burden of the dollar?” I believe that a few gaps are there. This is no longer a ‘too big too fail’ market. The US has a debt surpassing $30,000,000,000,000 and that debt is growing by billions a day. In addition in this economy that is picking itself up fuel prices could (could being the operative word) go up by 20% before October and then winter comes. You all watched the income of dreaded winter in Game of Thrones, now you get to see it in your neighbourhood (if you are north enough to see it for yourself). So the quote “it’s inevitable that the perennial chatter about the yuan challenging the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency should be revived. Such talk has always been fanciful — but it’s even more unlikely right now.” The man is not incorrect, but these talks have been going on for 6 years and in that time the largest one has surpassed a point of no return point in debts, and number two and three (EU and Japan) are not that far behind, they will take extensive damage if the dollar topples. Yes, we all here that noise “It will never happen” but really? How much debt will that take and when it happens, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will have to do whatever is best for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The writer then gives us “The yuan punches far below its weight in terms of foreign exchange transactions, and the dollar punches above its weight” which to some degree gives us that Saudi Arabia might consider it and when the oil shortages start adding up, that move of Saudi Arabia solidifying longer and stronger walls with China the stage is partially set. Life in the US and EU will become unbearably hard. Even now Japan is trying to set up new stimulus packages and we saw how great that was for the EU, trillions in added debt and no restarted economy. Ad there is a direct link in support between the US, EU and Japan. So when these support structures collapse we see a sort of house of cards impact and that affects the global economy, no matter how you want to present that picture. Consider the simple stage of California. In Los Angeles fuel costs $5.876, now consider adding 20% to that, all whilst life in Los Angeles (all over California) is as expensive as it ever was. With the shortage of drivers and deliveries that market will sure to set a few more stages. In 11 districts in California fuel prices are (presently) the highest ever, so add 20% to that? You think it is impossible? Think again. The Middle East has given NO guarantees that there will be more fuel, it basically has no interest to do that, or to lower prices and around the corner is China enjoying the commercial stage the US (EU too) pushed themselves in and they get to direct the fallout of that setting. 

Now, there needs the be a clear message. “I could be wrong” an educated guess remains a guess, yet what I found is coming from decent sources and because the writers do not want to look into the dark corner does not mean that dark corner goes away, it merely means that whatever comes from there will come less expected and hits the people squarely on the jaw. And the setting that we see now has been growing month after month for about 2-3 years. So the people in that corner WANT this to happen. Like myself they are hoping for that fat bonus and some of them have received guarantees (I did not) So the people pushing this have an interest to push this. I do not care that much unless the 3.75% bonus comes my way. At that point I would state ‘Push all you want’ because that too is the result of a commerce based world and now the inhumane setting of that becomes clear. The US never cared when they got to call the shots, but that is now no longer the case is it? So when we see a president giving CNN ‘Biden demands faster drop in gas prices as oil tumbles’, they seemingly forget that oil prices were dropping when there was still supply at a higher price and there is a decent chance that these prices will go back up before those reserves are completely gone. And when they are gone oil volatility will hit American households all over (EU too). The dream of every family it own car will be to live in a stage of perpetual work at home because the people cannot afford to go to the office and then reality comes calling double quick. So perhaps yes, I do hope I get my bonus, if only to retire with a will to live and I am not alone in that setting. There are millions like me all over the world. 

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