Tag Archives: Hezbollah

Talk about something in a boring way?

Yes, that is one way to put it, you see we can drone all we like, but until certain players wake up, smell the coffee and realise that they are aiding Iran through silence, we will never get anywhere. It started yesterday (actually a few days earlier) and I did mention an event before that. But yesterday it started as Reuters gave us ‘UAE says it blocked drone attack, shadowy group claims responsibility’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-says-it-destroyed-3-drones-that-penetrated-its-airspace-wednesday-2022-02-02/) there we see “The first three assaults, including a missile attack on Monday during a visit by Israel’s president, were launched by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis in an escalation with a military coalition led by Saudi Arabia and which includes the UAE.” In this we are also given “Wednesday’s drone attack was claimed by little-known “True Promise Brigades”, citing UAE interference in Yemen and Iraq as justification, according to U.S.-based SITE Intelligence Group, which follows militant websites”, which I personally reckon is one of two players. The article does give us “the group, which is unknown to Iraqi intelligence or security officials, is actually active or capable of such attacks, or if it is a front for Iran-allied militias”, but that is not all. I get the setting we see here. Yet when we consider the gathered intel from Saudi Spokesperson Turki Al-Maliki who gave is last month and showed us all video that not only is Iran actively involved in Yemen, but so is Hezbollah and there is no mention of Hezbollah at present is there? More important, the western media shunned any mention of Iran and Hezbollah in Yemen ACTIVELY attacking the UAE and Saudi Arabia. There is not the question whether it has happened. The attacks on Aramco (14 September 2019) could not have ben done by Houthi forces, or Hezbollah for that matter. The attacks and the precision clearly implies an attack by Iran, but that as never properly investigated by the west was it? So I decided to design a weapon system to stealthily sink their navy and I gave it to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (as well as put it online), the idea of melting down their reactor I put online. It needs to be clear that if no one will deal with Iran, I will (I needed a hobby anyway).

But this is not about me. This is about Iran and this is about the UAE attack. So the second article comes from Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2017681/middle-east) there we see ‘UAE foreign minister condemns Houthi attacks in call with Iranian counterpart’, I personally wonder what UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed actually told Iran, but I think it is clear that these attacks are not the result from Houthi forces. I am also amazed that the drones got that far. There is more in this and the technology required to get that far implies clearly that it is Iranian hardware, definitely training by Iran or Houthi forces and the reach of the hardware implies stronger measures have been delivered to Houthi forces and only one source is the delivery agent. It was Iran, whether they went via Hezbollah is another matter. Yet the text “the UAE’s air defences intercepted and destroyed three drones on Wednesday before they had reached residential areas” the question becomes was the target military or civilian? That is not easily answered, but the setting requires a much larger response from the west, If they want any credibility at all. Yet there is a larger station to consider. Why is the west (aka US Navy) unable to stop Iranian (or Hezbollah) smugglers? This setting is already beyond 7 drones, the hardware required is not a simple setting. There needs to be at least three teams or more advanced cluster Drone control and the second part implies a lot more training and a lot more knowledge that previously expected and there is no way that this advanced expertise of drones is in the hard of Houthi forces or Hezbollah. 

The second part is drone control, there are at least 3 stations available. Whether we track or hack, something needs to be done and so far the failures of the blocking navy (US, UK) is out there and more questions are out there on smugglers making it though. I might pull a rabbit with a solution out of my hat, but I got nothing (at present) yet the Americans and Brits out there are not getting it done either so something new is required and if I create a new IP on taking out Iranian interest I will put them here, but at present smugglers are the problem and so far no one has anything to stop them and the one that got caught is not enough, the weapons might count, but drones and drone control is making it through and that needs to stop. It needs to stop because soon the stage becomes that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are forced to set the tone to open warfare with Iran. The flaccid politicians (Us and EU) will be too late then and no one will give them any consideration, at that point we can no longer be neutral and as I personally see it, the commonwealth will have to openly support the UAE and then what? You see at that point we are at a point of no return and we had the option to stop it earlier, if only politicians and their stakeholders had a clear solution to avoid the point of no return and as we can see it will soon be too late for that. At least I offered at least two parts in stopping Iran, more needs to be done and the west is not doing it. The Wall Street Journal gave u 17 hours ago ‘U.S. Sees Iran’s Nuclear Program as Too Advanced to Restore Key Goal of 2015 Pact’, the Jerusalem Post only 11 hours ago gives us ‘The US is negotiating a shorter, weaker Iran Deal’, and I wrote on November 19th 2021 ‘Uranium, Iranas, Iran it again’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/11/19/uranium-iranas-iran-it-again/). There I stated (almost three months ago) “the first dose of reality is only a week away, when we see the absence of strong media representation, the absence of strong language and the absence of clear shot time lines, I feel that my point will be made and I only need to see one of the three to be proven correct. This has been going on for 7 years, enough is enough I say”, and that is all after the stories going back to July 2020, there has been that much inaction from the west, and equally that little achieved. 

It is clear that Iran is using flaccid western politicians and western stakeholders to get their message and levels of inactivity out. So as the New York Post now gives the people ‘New Iran deal wouldn’t stop production of nuclear bomb: White House’, so as the gloves come off, the stage of either support Saudi Arabia or face the chaos that will ensure for decades to come will pass through inaction, or through actions done too late. Inactions will have pushed the Middle East to a brink of chaos and we are all in part to blame, we have seen a year of inactions and filtered news so any journalist now making claims that they were caught unaware can go screw themselves. This has been out there for years and we are soon in a stage where we could face the ordeal of letting it all get out of control. 

We can drone all we want, but we forgot that there was a larger stage and not calling that one out was on the plate of all these so called reporters, yet they didn’t do that, did they?

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Cives tantum

It is an old setting, I forgot about it for the longest of times. You see in the old days there were announcers, they would give the people the knowledge of the events taking place. Yet in some cases some area’s would not be told everything. It was a case of ‘citizens only’, a filtering of what non-citizens needed not know. It still happens today, governments and corporations are filtering the news to protect their interests. So what happens when everyone demands to know?

It started a few days ago, but today I see another setting, a setting that goes beyond filtering, a setting that we need to know about. Several outlets reported on ‘UAE intercepts Houthi missile as Israeli president visits’ (at https://aje.io/jww3hn), I am taking the Al Jazeera link (it was a lot shorter) but they all give the same news. We are given “The UAE is part of a Saudi-led coalition fighting the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, in a seven-year-old conflict that has left tens of thousands of people dead, displaced millions and spawned what the United Nations describes as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis”, we are given the news, we are given the news again and again, yet the important part in this is not merely the attack. It is the part that is left away from us. It is the part that Houthi forces cannot create (and allegedly operate) drones and ballistic missiles. There is no infrastructure, there is no knowledge and there is no manufacturing options. There is only one setting, Iran is delivering and optionally operating the events. There is an additional side that involves Hezbollah, but that evidence is too slim to consider even whilst Iran is the larger culprit, Hezbollah is for now not off the hook. 

Yet the media is all but silenced on the involvement of Iran. Those idiots had no issues spouting innuendo, nonsense and fabrication regarding the journalist no one cares about (Jamal Khashoggi), but in case of Iran all these settings are not working, there is a need to keep Iran out of the limelight and I wonder why that is. Consider the knowledge we have, the smuggling we see and the non activities against Iran. Why is the media keeping us in the dark? Who are they catering for? All questions that we do not see answered. And even as some players (read: BBC) are now handing us the Children in Yemen, they did not do it until 3 hours after I posted my blog, which was 10 hours after the ABC posted it. So the BBC who tends to lead was now 13 hours late on Children used by Houthi forces, another filter on Yemen, and I reckon that too many were posting, so they could no longer hold off, they merely delayed and posted the minimal numbers with the occasional error in calculations. Too many people are filtering the events Iran is a part of. Too many are not mentioning Iran driven events and many are not questioning certain events and it has been going on since before 14 September 2019, but that too was not decently looked at, was it?

Civis Tantum was to some degree acceptable in those days 2000 years ago, but today the press states again and again that they are all fair and balanced, shining light on the darkness that threatens democracy and whatever other claim they can make. So, when you see these questions, all whilst we see them not come from them, with all the other failings from drone strikes to hacking and even the ICIJ, a much larger failing is given to us, we are merely told what those looking over their shoulders allow them to tell us, so how is that independent and revealing?

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Accusatio et testimonio

That is the setting and I waited for a few hours. To be honest I had doubts when the news reached me via Saudi Arabia News. So I checked, Al Jazeera had it, ABC had it and i24 news had it. You know who did not have it? BBC, the Guardian, the Times, even the sanctimonious Washington Post. None of them had it and lets face it, there is nothing news about ‘2,000 children recruited by Yemen’s Houthis died fighting: UN’ (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/30/2000-children-recruited-by-yemens-houthis-died-fighting-un). Lets be clear this is not some accusation, this is a report by the United Nations which then gives us “A United Nations report found children aged between 10 and 17 years are being lured into fighting Yemen’s internationally recognised government” In this, do you still think I am kidding when I mentioned that stake holders are filtering the news that we are allowed to have? Of all sources, the BBC, the Guardian, the Times, the Washington Post, the LA Times, the list goes on regarding top tier newspapers who all basically forgot to mention it and we are likely to hear an ‘oops’ by some. This is what Saudi Arabia and the UAE faces an opponent using children and it is not for our eyes. It didn’t even make the Save the Children International news who gave us a week ago that three children were killed. Beat that with a charity fence. 

So this is what Al Jazeera gives us “The children are instructed to shout the Houthi slogan ‘death to America, death to Israel, curse the Jews, victory to Islam’,” the four-member panel of experts said. “In one camp, children as young as 7 years of age were taught to clean weapons and evade rockets”, that is the reality that Saudi Arabia faces, that is the reality we face and these children will get hardened and more extreme and more militant as they get to 18, they will have more combat training then the average NATO soldier. That is the reality of a war that Houthi forces with Iranian support are bringing to our shores and the stakeholders do not want us informed, perhaps the have some golden joke to serve Iran, perhaps it is about the billions in oil revenue that end up in the hands of some middle man, but there is an agenda, there always is. And we can no longer afford that agenda, we need to pick a side, this war has been going on for almost 7.5 years and there is no end in sight and with the Houthi forces now relying on children there is no future for Yemen either. We could just bomb it into the stone age and be done with it. But that would imply we would have to do the same to Iran and Hezbollah. Iran is fine, we get rid of 85 million people and problems are solved. But what about Hezbollah? What about those 5 million people? When will it end? I tell you, when we give full and complete support to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, that is when we get a first clear victory and the beginning of the end becomes visible. We will also make sure that Iran is no longer welcome there. It was a clear path that has been staring us in the face for well over 4 years, but we took pride in grannies with their CAAT and ‘no weapons to Saudi Arabia’ banners and we thought the problem was gone. No it never was, we merely gave billions in sales to China and Russia and lost out there too. Now we have lost options and listening to media in denial of events does not help, listening to stakeholders does not help. A setting that has been clear for years, yet we were in denial. Why? Houthi drone bombings on Saudi civilian targets never made the news. And now you can see it for yourself, the large papers seem to silence a UN report. All whilst news tends to waste papers on any UN report even when no one cares, but 2000 children? Do you think we will care or will we not? I let you decide and check the time of WHEN these other papers give us the news, because after the fact is nice when it is a hiker getting lost, but a United Nation report on 2000 children being pushed into a war? How does that sit with you?

I will let you figure it out.

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The questions not asked

We get that there are unanswered questions, there always are, but what of the questions no one is asking and more important, why are these questions not asked to begin with.

That was the state of mind I had when I was confronted with ‘Saudi-led coalition hits Yemen rebel camp in capital Sanaa’. In the first is that the western media is massively absent here. It seems that some of the stakeholders need to compose themselves after too much Christmas dinner and snacks. Even when you see something in the news, it will be mostly ‘Saudi bashing’, yet the question that should be on our minds is seen with this quote “the attack was a response to ‘an attempt to transfer weapons’ by the Yemeni rebel group”. You see, after all these years there are weapon transfers? A cluster of weapons to this degree, the degree that clears an airstrike implies that someone is arming the Houthi forces. So after all the bitches stop whining about arming Saudi’s, we see clear indication that someone is arming the Houthi’s (aka Iran), but we see no whining there, do we? We have not seen any whining on that side of the fence for way too long, so why is that?

So then we get to the partly replicated quote “The coalition, which backs Yemen’s internationally recognised government against the Houthis in the civil war, said it destroyed weapons storehouses in the rebel-held capital, according to the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA).” Yet it holds two elements. The first is “destroyed weapons storehouses” which implies larger collections of arms and we see an absence of that reporting for the longest of times. The second one is that we see the western press ignoring or avoiding the SPA (Saudi Press Agency), why is that? 

And now, only minutes ago the Khaleej Times (UAE Newspaper in Dubai) gives us ‘Saudi-led Coalition says Iran, Hezbollah aid Houthi militias in Yemen’ (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/gulf/saudi-led-coalition-says-iran-hezbollah-aid-houthi-militias-in-yemen) I knew about Iran, they are not much of a surprise. I knew about the activities by Hezbollah as well, but seeing Hezbollah in this setting in the media is rather scarce, the western media for the most avoided it, they have political games in Beirut, they do not need these revelations, I merely wonder why not?

You see, if Hezbollah (apparently speaking for all Palestine) wants help, they better come forward with the list of activities that they are involved in, I am not holding my breath on their stupid actions that blew up Beirut, they are all hiding from that massive (pardon the expression) fuck up.

And when we let the claim sink in. The claim that tells us “Arab Coalition spokesman presents proofs of Hezbollah militants’ support to Houthi’s attack on Saudi Arabia”, we see the danger Palestine now faces. You see instigating war by ATTACKING Saudi Arabia has larger consequences. Palestine is now in danger of alienating Egypt as well as Jordan in this and that is a stage they cannot afford, you see Iran cannot cover all their needs and the backlash will be large and so far the western media ignores it. They might think ‘If we ignore this, it will go away’. There is the speculation that they all watched the movie ‘Don’t look up’, but it is a speculation given by but a few people. 

The accusation is there and the evidence was shown by Turki Al Malki “Malki showed reporters a video clip which depicted “the headquarters of Iranian and Hezbollah experts at the airport” where, he alleged “Hezbollah is training the Houthis to booby-trap and use drones”.” It is as suspected a few times, but this is the first time I see that there is a decent level of evidence. In this light it will be important and essential for the EU, UK and US to stop ALL AID to Palestine until matters are resolved. That setting also comes with a new alleged setting of evidence. If Hezbollah is still training Houthi forces on using drones (which might be fair enough), it also means that Houthi Forces could NEVER have hit Aramco the way they did. That was out in the open for almost 2 years. With this evidence we see the first brick unveiled that the attack was done by Iran, optionally with Hezbollah but Houthi forces could never have hit Aramco to the degree it was. Yet I reckon that the media, the western media will ignore it more and again, it will be too uncomfortable to the people the media reports to and I can tell you right now that the people were never a consideration here.

A stage that was out in the open for the longest of times and it is also riddled with questions we never saw asked, why is that and why is the reporting on these events so one sided, not by them, by us? We are so about freedom and the right of expression, so why do we express that right by keeping silent on what we see, we keep silent of what is clearly out there and we keep silent on Iran and Hezbollah. Why is that? When you know the answer to these two questions you will know a lot more than you think you do.

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Wow, it was actually worse

Yes, that was pretty much the first thought I had when I was hit with the article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59290301). The BBC gave me ‘Beirut blast: UN ignored plea for port disaster evidence’ this morning, a story that was out several hours at that time. There we see “the UN has repeatedly ignored requests from bereaved families for information to help the official investigation into the Beirut port explosion which killed 219 people in August last year”. This is seemingly poured on by worse data collection with “The Beirut Bar Association represents nearly 2,000 families and survivors at the investigation. Its chairman sent three separate letters directly to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, asking for some specific details. They requested two things. Firstly, all available satellite photos taken on the day of the blast by member states. And secondly, whether Unifil (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) checked the MV Rhosus – the ship that carried the explosive material which caused the explosion – back in 2013, before it arrived at Beirut port”. There is a larger play in motion. You see, I always had issues with Stephanie Kirchgaessner (an essay writer for the guardian), I showed this a few times over and in this case lets get back to January 28th 2020 when I wrote ‘The incompetent view’, there we see ““The issue is now the subject of an investigation by two independent UN investigators“, we see an almost completed path.” The issues of a blast are not investigated, and the ramblings of a highly debatable investigation by FTI Consulting apparently is. Even as cyber experts (a lot more in the know then me) had shone their light and found the report debatable. The article gives you more if you need it (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/01/28/the-incompetent-view/). There is more, bit it is less relevant than I need it to be for this. 

You see, when we see that the UN is ignoring please for a blast that pretty much wiped a city of the map, all whilst it is allegedly investigating debatable information on a member of the Saudi Royal family, they act? So is the UN the paper tiger is has been seen as for too long, by too many members? Has the UN become nothing more than a political tool for players like the United States? It is not a weird thought, plenty have said so, I merely act on evidence that the media releases, then again on information other media releases, so the thought is not out of bounds. And whilst I await my good fortune (see other stories), I might as well fill it with act on waking people up. 

And this remains on Beirut, the UN seems eager to ignore what happens there. I saw the massive blanket media ignoring the simple facts that a fire could not ever create this amount of an explosion, especially as the fire was near, not on the ship. And the massive explosion implies that there were explosives on the ship and that is what Hezbollah fears will come out and there we see the Iran play, the need it to be about something else and it is far fetched, I will admit to that immediately, but the powers that are controlling the stories dropped a few items and that gets noticed, especially the digital advertisement hungry media. They like their flames in a controlled manner, to make it last longer. Beirut would blow that setting out of the water (and it seemingly did so with additional help). 

So whilst we might take notice of “Until this day we don’t know what caused the explosion, we don’t know if it was an intentional act, we don’t know if it was caused by negligence, we have no idea”, we do need to take notice of “The first of the families’ letters was sent by the Bar Association on 26 October 2020. A follow-up was dispatched three weeks later on 19 November, noting “it has been more than 100 days since the blast, to date none of the member states or Unifil has sent any photos or information”. The third letter, dated 17 March 2021, states: “Seven months have passed since the blast and five months since our letter, and unfortunately our letters remain unanswered and unacknowledged. Lebanon is a founder member of the UN and is asking for help.”” So, is it a lack of support, or is it all about specifically directed support, support that the US hopes will ‘aid’ their need to make Iran heel, all whilst it is aiding Iran to set up delay after delay. And in all this the UN is happy to cater to the ignoring of Beirut whilst bashing Saudi Arabia for good measure. And do not take my word for it, Search for “the Guardian + Stephanie Kirchgaessner” on Google. Should you doubt one of the two parts, when you do set it next to the station of the UN and their 7 months of not looking at the Beirut situation. It can not have the resources as they had it to waste on matters that do not relate to UN activities. So you tell me.

In that station we are all the piggy in the middle. And it is a game with four parties, we are the piggy, the UN is one player, the US is allegedly the other player, but who is player four? Lobbyists? Stakeholders governments? At present still unknown parties? I actually do not know, yet I wonder who does. It is not because I am not trying, it is because the players are really good on keeping their presence, both natural and digital unseen, we can speculate that they get serious amounts of help, but that too would be speculating. You see it is set to the premise of a 4 player piggy in the middle, but that is instinctive speculation, if the speculation is wrong, the field looks different, but there is one clarity, the 7 months silence, the acts of an essay writer and the setting of the biggest non-nuclear blast I have ever seen sets that stage. But I will admit upfront that there are speculative sides, if the speculation is wrong, then so is the view. I will let you do your own searchings and decide for yourself. It is all I can do, it is all I should do.

So as I conclude today, the view is seemingly worse than even I thought it would be, the BBC brought that to the surface and as some media will give more visibility to the failings of the United Nations, feel free to wonder how much they are getting paid and what they should be doing. Consider their failings in Yemen due to acts by Houthi and Iranian stake holders, how far did they get? How often was Saudi Arabia blamed whilst Houthi forces as well as their Iranian benefactors were unmentioned? Now consider the stage of Beirut and what the United Nations has achieved there. We can agree that Hezbollah is part of that equation, but it is not enough for the failing to be this big, there needs to be another player in this game for the math to work decently.

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Terrorist claim of instability

Yes, we have seen it all. Or so it would seem. The article (at https://aje.io/tpe7wm) that gives ‘Hezbollah chief slams Saudi Arabia for Lebanon diplomatic rift’ is hilarious, if humour is your thing. To understand this we need to make a little time warp. This all started on March 21st 2015, when Houthi-led Supreme Revolutionary Committee declared a general mobilisation to overthrow the legitimately elected Hadi. Hadi called for help and the Arabic Nations came to the offensive together with Saudi Arabia. This started the war that has persisted for 6.5 years. Why? Because Iran decided to aid the Houthi’s and Hezbollah being an Iranian tool decided to help out in more than one occasion. So we now make another jump towards October 2021. Now we see “A day earlier, Lebanon’s information minister George Kordahi triggered a social media frenzy when a video of him referring to the Houthis as defending themselves emerged online” and when you see what caused the war in Yemen and all whilst several sources keep on silencing on Iranian actions, we now see Lebanon catering to Iran as well. So when we see “Nasrallah accused Saudi Arabia of violating Lebanese sovereignty and dismissed calls for the departure of embattled Information Minister George Kordahi” and this is not enough. One source less then 2 weeks ago gives us “Kordahi Meets al-Rahi who Reportedly Advises Him to Resign”, is it true? I do not know, I saw one source and several other sources make claims but not this one. In addition to this Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain recalled their ambassadors and expelled the Lebanese ambassadors. It seems that Nasrallah has a lot more problems, but he reckons that Saudi Arabia is the largest one and if he cries towards the UK and US he might get a bag of goodies. All whilst Lebanon is now solely relying on Iran to help out. As such I personally reckon that the Lebanese people have a lot to fear. We also are given “Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan’s remarks that Hezbollah has hegemony over Lebanon as “nonsense”” I do not think that Prince Faisal bin Farhan is wrong, the entire matter with Beirut and shootings over judge Tarek Bitar seems to point that out. Hezbollah is scared for what it might reveal and at that point the media can no longer be silent, and Iran will be all they have left. I reckon that the people are scared and the worry, in history Iran has always called on payment for their support (and then some). The people fear what that will bring this time around. 

It is a personal view and you might disagree, but personally I do not think that any terrorist gets to call anyone on instability. It is just how I am wired. And I am not dismissing some of the calls against judge Tarek Bitar, but the others started shooting, it makes me wonder just how good judge Tarek Bitar is in the place where he is now. As far as I can tell, Hezbollah has not been this nervous for the longest time and I feel that this is not a bad thing. 

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There is doubt

We have doubt, we all do and there is no denying it. I have had my reservations from the press for the longest of time. Today we see another article and this time by Al Jazeera. They give us ‘Palestinian activists hacked by Israeli firm NSO spyware’, I will agree that there are people that we should monitor, this happens. So what makes these Palestinians so special? Consider that in the past we were given that the price of a hack is $100,000. This means that someone lashed out $600,000 on these six Palestinian rights activists. They are not called terrorists (whether they are or not), they are labeled as rights activists. Then Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/8/palestinian-rights-activists-hacked-by-israeli-firm-nso-group) gives us “Spyware from the Israeli surveillance company NSO Group was detected on the mobile phones of six Palestinian human rights activists, in the first known instance of Palestinian activists being targeted by the military-grade Pegasus spyware”, so the paragraph mentions Israel, then the ‘NSO group’, ‘Military-grade’ and ‘Pegasus spyware’. With the added settings that matter. The first is “It is not clear who placed the NSO spyware” which is fair enough, so what gives certainty that it was Pegasus? It is a fair enough question and where is that report? Then we get “Three of the hacked Palestinians work for civil society groups. The others do not, and wish to remain anonymous, Frontline Defenders says” which countermands the earlier statement of ‘six Palestinian human rights activists’, just three and what are the other ones? Terrorists? Yes, I’ll bet they want THEIR anonymity. It is the odd setting we get next “Frontline Defenders is “not absolutely alleging that Israel is behind this,” but that the “timing of all this is very interesting””, yes so is the IRA coming to the rescue of Hezbollah, but I will not judge. Wasn’t it the Times who gave us on September 13th 2020 that gave us ‘New IRA forges links with Hezbollah’, also interesting isn’t it?

So where is the evidence? And whilst we give Andrew Anderson, executive director at Frontline Defenders the benefit of the doubt with “the NSO Group cannot be trusted to ensure its spyware is not used illegally by its customers and says Israel should face international reproach if it does not bring the company to heel”, well, one could argue that no one is bringing Hezbollah to heel, the other part is that the reports have not been given the visibility that they deserve. When did a media outlet like the verge get that full report? Why is that report not out in the open for scrutiny? In my mind the girl stating that that she is the greatest whore in the world whilst we cannot find any man substantiating that, is nothing more than a wannabe women hoping to get rid of her virginity. 

Any equation can be turned on its head and whatever falls out either supports the claim or accelerates the doubt we have. In this case I have doubt, I have way too much doubt. For one it is the lack of a timeline. 

When we see “The non-profit Frontline Defenders disclosed its findings on Monday in a joint technical report together with Amnesty International and the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab, which independently confirmed the results” It is the only date I see, so when were they infected, when were the suspicions voiced? How long did either party investigate? All parts that are missing and no one hands over the report to any of us. I have doubts, I have a lot of doubts and they are growing. The entire setting of the media being the whoring little chihuahua against the NSO group, optionally on American orders. The US does not need to spy on us, they have the media doing it for them. And as far as I can tell, no one is asking real questions, why is that?

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When politicians lie

This is a setting that is out in the open. What happens when politicians lie? When does a lie become a lie? That is the question I was pondering on when the BBC gave us ‘Saudi Arabia expels Lebanon ambassador amid Yemen row’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59096578). Here we are given “Mr Kordahi, who was speaking in August before he became a minister, called the conflict “futile” and said the Houthis were acting in “self-defence”” Is it a lie? Does a terrorist organisation have the right to rely on ‘self-defence’? For those who had forgotten the origins of the disagreement, let’s go back to September 2014 when Houthi forces took over the capital city Sanaa, which was followed by a rapid Houthi takeover of the government, a legitimate government no less. Houthi forces started a more and more brutal offensive against all they saw as enemies and did not stop there, they led drone attacks on civil Saudi targets, an act that was only possible through direct funding and equipment from Iran. I reckon that this is the price of Iranian fuel for Lebanon. 

Then we get to “The Lebanese government said Mr Kordahi’s remarks did not reflect its position – but relations between the two countries have worsened in recent years. The Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, which also backs the Houthi rebels in Yemen, has grown in strength in Lebanon”, yet in all this, we need to look at the larger picture. In Al-Arabiya we see “Lebanon’s Information Minister George Kordahi said on Wednesday his country “cannot remain subject to blackmail” in response to calls for his resignation after his statements about Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s involvement in the Yemen war.” So blackmail from who? It seems that there was a price for all that Iranian oil. There have been claims in the past from different parties that Hezbollah had been active in Yemen (no clear evidence was seen by me), and in this stage his claim to ‘self-defence’ is as empty as a peace offering from Hezbollah towards Israel. 

And as we get exposed to ““I am now part of an integrate government, and I cannot take a decision alone, it must be the government’s [decision] as a whole… I place the interests of Lebanon above all interests. And we cannot be in Lebanon exposed to blackmail by anyone, not by countries, or ambassadors or individuals,” Kordahi said in a press conference.” So when we put  ‘The Lebanese government said Mr Kordahi’s remarks did not reflect its position’ next to ‘I am now part of an integrate government’ it seems that someone here is not being truthful, so is it the Lebanese government, or is it Mr Kordahi. The fact that He was appointed on September 10th 2021, as the Lebanon’s Minister of Information. Is a larger problem. To me it implies that the Lebanese government has taken the Iranian route and when that implodes (as any agreement with Iran tends to do), the Lebanese people have nowhere to turn to and nowhere to run to. 

So now that Al Jazeera gives us ‘Lebanese president says he wants ‘best relations’ with Saudis’ (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/30/lebanese-president-says-he-wants-best-relations-with-saudis) and (optionally) hides behind “Lebanese politicians are scrambling to resolve a diplomatic spat with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, after the United Arab Emirates (UAE) followed Riyadh with measures against Beirut to protest against comments by a cabinet minister about the war in Yemen” and whilst we see mentions of “maintain good communication”, I reckon that President Michel Aoun seemingly learns the cost of catering to Iranian needs and ignoring real facts. On the other hand they have a harbour full of evidence of what happens when Hezbollah calls the shots. And the setting Al Jazeera gave us three weeks ago “Hossein Amir-Abdollahian says Tehran willing to rebuild Beirut port and construct two power plants in Lebanon” seem to set the larger confines of the Lebanese problem and in all this Hezbollah remains part of the problem, not the solution. The problem is that a lot more people know this. They all hide behind the simple part of “The explosion resulted from the detonation of tonnes of ammonium nitrate, a combustible chemical compound commonly used in agriculture as a high nitrate fertilizer, but which can also be used to manufacture explosives. The cargo of ammonium nitrate had entered Beirut’s port on a Moldovan-flagged ship, the Rhosus, in November 2013, and had been offloaded into hangar 12 in Beirut’s port on October 23 and 24, 2014” You see, clear scientific evidence gives us “Compared to most combustible materials, ammonium nitrate itself is not exceptionally explosive. But the compound can contribute to explosions because it belongs to a chemical class known as oxidisers” It needed something more and that is the part that Hezbollah fears. When the people learn of Hezbollah stupidity too many people there will demand larger changes, that is what Hezbollah fears and for now they are willing to dance to Iranian music and there is where we see George Kordahi, no longer presenting who wants to be a millionaire, he is now catering to the millionaires Lebanon needs and we get it. But with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and Bahrain severing ties, Lebanon is now left to the mercy and resources of Iran and when that runs out (or gets weird delays) the setting changes even more. 

So, How wrong am I?
Consider the facts, consider what happens from September 2014 onwards, it clearly shows Houthi forces as a terrorist antagonist, we see conflicting information from Lebanese spokespeople and there is the larger stage where FOUR nations have cut ties with Lebanon. In a stage where Lebanon needs all the friends they could find. A stage of segregation and separation, the first two stages or eliminating any source.

Yet in all this, There is a clear lack of critical analyses on the acts by George Kordahi, which in light of the Iranian settings is weird. Wouldn’t it be the first that the US would do and the first thing that (overly quick) gets leaked to the NY Times or the Washington Post?

OK, that previous point is somewhere between assumption and presumption, but the setting in light of all we have seen so far makes sense. 

In all, I get the stance of Saudi Arabia here, I get the stance of the other Arabian nations here, yet in all this the acts of George Kordahi and President Michel Aoun are seemingly weird. In a stage where Lebanon desperately needs Saudi Arabia, the setting of a flaccid response towards the actions of George Kordahi are off, especially as three other nations took sides with Saudi Arabia. One might think that Lebanon has no idea how to deal with the requests by Iran and that too matters. If communication lines there are presently so convoluted, Lebanon faces a lot more hardships soon enough and they are only weeks away from the December cold. December to March gives them 11 to 13 degrees on average. November and April are not far off from that and with the winter stage and without power, or 1-2 hours a day at best Lebanon is looking to one of its worst winters in decades. In all this the promised Iranian power centres sound nice, but they will not get there before late autumn 2022, so it will be a hard time for the 7 million Lebanese, that much seems a given at present. 

Were the politicians involved lying? That remains the part that is unclear, no matter how they slice it, they were stretching facts and truths far beyond points of breaking (which does not make it a lie), but it sets the premise that catering to the wrong people now comes at a price that Lebanon never considered having to pay ever before and that too matters, because that stage could determine the degrees of freedom that Iran will have in Lebanon, optionally as part of Hezbollah.

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The rule of guns

This is not new, this is not even novel. It is the continuation of something that has been going on for decades, I saw it with my own eyes in 1982, others saw it too. Some objected, others did not. And when Beirut had its fireworks party on August 5th 2020, so many voices were eager to give rise to a setting that could never be, and all rejoiced when the media forwarded those messages. They must have thought it was in the bag. But I knew a think or two and I gave the readers ‘Boom goes the dynamite’ that very same day (about 6 hours later, might have been 12). And I gave the readers “It is speculation, but consider the blast, according to some the blast was noticed well over 100Km away. I do have a point of reference, the Fireworks blast in the Netherlands (Enschede) had a similar effect, but nowhere near the size, the video’s I saw told a different story, one car on the highway with a distance of around 2000 meters away got its windows blown out and the rear view mirrors got blown off the car, and that is one of a few video’s that show me that this was no ordinary blast”, so there was a lager stage and the people who were behind it went under the rocks like cockroaches. I calculated that it took a massive amount of 40’ containers and the cargo, 125 40’ containers worth cannot go up like the way it did, not in one go. And I rote more than one article about that. So when we now see in the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/14/gunfire-beirut-protest-judge-leading-port-blast-inquiry), the setting of ‘Five dead as shooting breaks out at Beirut protests over port blast inquiry’, we now see “demanding end to judge’s investigation of huge blast last year”, all whilst we see Hezbollah types being brave behind their balaclava’s. So whilst we get the terrorist spokespeople Nabih Berri and Hassan Nasrallah make noise, we see the attacks on judge Tarek Bitar continue. I see no surprises, once a terrorist, always a terrorist. And when we see “However, demands that all aspects of the explosion be investigated seem almost impossible to deliver, with ministers summoned for investigation refusing to turn up”, something that I saw and I feel certain plenty of others saw that too, we wonder when Hezbollah will be held to account. So whilst these political chihuahua’s refuse to appear we see the stage changing, a stage where a lot of people are demanding that ALL HELP towards Lebanon will stop until someone correctly muzzles Hezbollah. And I see a reason to divert those aid funds to Israel (if needed). A larger stage erupts as the smaller (2020/8/5) subsides. This is not about local rights, this is about Hezbollah is showing itself as the bully it always was, it was that in 1982, it still is that now. In this I am not making judgement on judge Tarek Bitar, I know too little about him, but the stage that Hezbollah wants it stopped and they are happy to show themselves (often with balaclava’s) exercise that right wielding an RPG-7, or other hardware of the ‘firearms’ variety shows them to be the aggressor, to be the bad apples and now as the energy crises is pushing into winter, the stage of anger changes even more. Now there is a larger explosion and it could go on into its neighbouring places and one of them is Israel the other one is Syria and neither accepts the Hezbollah approach. I nice stage to set and the people of Lebanon do not get a choice in the matter, they let things slide with Hezbollah for too long and this will implode in all kinds of wrong settings. Even now we see all minds of media including Iran in this mess. I cannot follow that as I remain a follower of evidence, but it does make sense. And even in light of the humanitarian side of ‘Hezbollah-run oil shipments from Iran’, enough players were willing to let that slide, but it would not take long until Hezbollah thought it was in control (because to some degree they are) and now the world has had enough, some will stop funds, more will stop goods and Hezbollah will learn what war against hungry and cold fellow citizens look like, they will not give Hezbollah any consideration in all this and neither should we. There comes a time when enough is enough and too many have hit that point now, so as Hezbollah and Amar will seek ‘compensation’ (optionally for their lost explosives), the larger station is no what they want, it is what they were part of and that is what fears them. The Times of Israel gives us “Local commentators said Washington, worried about chaos in Lebanon amid raging, multiple crises, may have decided to look the other way”, but that is not the real deal. The slightly more real deal is “humanitarian assistance in Lebanon to more than $372 million in Fiscal Year 2021” and it has become time to stop that. Let the cancer die, let those people die. This in not inhumane, it is an essential part of stopping terrorism by Hezbollah. If there are no people to care, there are no recruits, there is no Hezbollah and the times and the economic pressure are growing in this direction. It would have been less of an issue if someone muzzled them, but no one did so we have a new stage to look forward to. In the first the UN trying to smooth things over, the other all the heart bleeding people who ache for the people of Lebanon, yet none of them are willing to hold Hezbollah to account, why is that?

To keep instability around? It is too late for that, Wall Street solved that problem for you all. 

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The big match

Yes, most of us can relate to sports, I am all about the biscuit (NHL puck), most are about the balls, some round, some oval, yet in all this we tend to be able to connect to sports, it is almost a global thing. When it is not Chess or Go that is. As such I am keeping an open mind towards the Iran-Saudi Arabia talks. I do hope that Saudi Arabia gets the peace it is entitled to, but personally. In light of all that has transpired, I am not really optimistic that Iran will keep its word, but that is my view of the matter and at present I would be happy to be wrong. 

The first issue
There are a few issues that intertwine and they are not up to Saudi Arabia, the first player is Hezbollah who has been accused a few times to give support to Houthi forces after an alleged call from General Qasem Soleimani. There are a few speculations attached to it, yet the larger stage remains. Iran directly and allegedly indirectly via Hezbollah decided to attack the citizens of Saudi Arabia and engage in a long term proxy war. This issue will resolve itself over time, yet for the tool in that conversation (Hezbollah), we might take notice of ‘Stockpiling fuel from Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah braces for state collapse’ (source: The Arab Weekly), with supporting text “The plan chimes with worries in Lebanon that people will have to rely on political factions for food and security, in the way many did in the militia days of the 1975-1990 civil war. In response to a question about Hezbollah’s plans, Leila Hatoum, an adviser to the caretaker prime minister, said the country was “in no condition to refuse aid” regardless of politics.The sources from the pro-Hezbollah camp, who declined to be named, said the plan for a potential worst-case scenario has gathered pace as an end to subsidies looms in the coming months, raising the spectre of hunger and unrest”, a stage that has one side, yet when Iran has to collapse its assistance, the stage there changes, Hezbollah will no longer be regarded as a local asset, it will be regarded as a larger national liability and that is not a good place for Hezbollah to be in. It is a win-win for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, if this part is not met, Iran will show itself to be a non-peace driven party to the world. If it does, support in Yemen toward the houthi forces becomes a non option quite soon. 

The second issue
The second player in all this is Turkey, it has sided with Iran too often and they are seeing the larger impact, so I was not surprised to see the Middle East Eye give us ‘Turkey’s foreign minister to visit Saudi Arabia, a first in four years’, it is a personal view, but I reckon that they want to get ahead of the curve, kicking the one player that is vocation stability is not a good thing and the larger stage as well as the blatant openly inaccuracies and pushed mis representations regarding a journalist no one cares about (Jamal Khashoggi) will be the larger noose they need to avoid. We might think that there is a focus around “Cavusoglu is expected to make attempts to repair bilateral ties during the visit, but the closure of Turkish schools will be a top issue, sources told MEE. Last week, Turkey’s education ministry said it has been informed by the Saudi authorities that the eight schools, which have a total of 2,256 pupils, will have to close at the end of the current school year. Last month, the education ministry said there were 26 Turkish schools in Saudi Arabia”, yet I believe that this is a ruse. This minister will have some form of apology package with all kinds of considerations. Turkey has no choice, their crypto currency collapse (Thodex and Vebitcoin) with bosses running for the hills (at least one with $2,000,000,000 plus in its USB pockets) and the people angry with losing all they have is the larger setting for civic unrest to a scale they never faced before and that requires all kinds of sides to reduce pressure wherever they can and both Turkey and Iran are happy to let Hezbollah drown on its own. Yes, this is my speculation, but if you followed the news in the last two years, you would end up having similar thoughts.

The third issue
The third issue is Yemen, there is no way around it and these two players are on opposite sides. Even as the media has avoided to a larger extent to show and to report on the unacceptable acts by Houthi forces, the UN who was the target on several occasions has not and that is where Iran find itself at a much larger disadvantage. They might have options if General Qasem Soleimani had been around the last 6 months, but someone solved that problem for many and now the less experienced players have painted themselves in corners and that works to the advantage of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as well. It is more against Iran but that might be mere semantics. Here we see France24 giving us (at https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210506-saudi-walks-diplomatic-high-wire-on-iran-yemen) “Saudi Arabia’s secret talks with arch-rival Iran signal a high-wire diplomatic act as it scrambles to rein in Tehran-backed Yemeni rebels”, as I see it, if Iran wants clear resolutions of the outstanding issues in play they would have to back down to a larger extent, optionally an openly extent to denounce the Houthi forces, but that would be an unrealistic expectation. And I do not disagree when we see “The Houthis would prefer to be their own interlocutor with Saudi Arabia and will not want Iran taking their place in that,” Elana DeLozier, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told AFP”, Elana DeLozier, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy has a clear point there, but these forces will not get too much of an option when Iran walks out, when that happens before the Houthis get any talks going they might end up being on their own and that pretty much ends the Houthi options in Yemen as I see it. As such the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a lot to gain, and with Iran being on everyone’s display they have a larger chance of getting a lot done.

In all this the stage will soon change and I reckon that there was a reason that Mevlut Cavusoglu (Turkish Foreign minister) used the Schools as a reason, The Arab Weekly gives us ‘May 20 deadline to register for Ithra conference in Saudi Arabia’s Dhahran’, which is seemingly also a beautiful place to be and get some informal settings, especially as it is away from Riyadh and has the nice extra to be a setting where the Turkish schools can be discussed openly and optionally talk about a few more issues less openly. As such, If I am correct a few larger issues will be on someone’s table in August so that they might be discussed in September. I reckon that this is the time that both Hezbollah and Houthi forces have left. In 8-12 weeks Turkey might need to get baubles for Euros to avoid a much larger negative national setting and I reckon they are willing to sell a few issues down the river for their own good. It is a personal speculated vision, but I feel that I might be onto something here, Iran will try to avoid making quick decisions, which makes perfect sense, so Turkey needs to get ahead of ending up being the piggy in the middle chasing after the ball and the goods. If Iran gives in too soon Turkey will end up holding the bag and in either scenario Hezbollah will merely forfeit whatever it thought it had in the first place, and there ‘thought they had’ was the operative part in all this and the Houthi forces merely lose. Optionally they will lose twice, because they made enemies of the local population all over the place as well and without Iranian funding these people will be running for the hills all whilst they know that everyone in Yemen will be out to get them. 

Game, set and match for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which comes with a dose of highly needed stability as well. And Iran? That leaves us out in the open, the people might accept a few parts, but the Nuclear deals are still there and Iran is delusional to think that Saudi Arabia (or Israel for that matter) will allow them to continue on the nuclear path they are.

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