Tag Archives: Hezbollah

The rule of guns

This is not new, this is not even novel. It is the continuation of something that has been going on for decades, I saw it with my own eyes in 1982, others saw it too. Some objected, others did not. And when Beirut had its fireworks party on August 5th 2020, so many voices were eager to give rise to a setting that could never be, and all rejoiced when the media forwarded those messages. They must have thought it was in the bag. But I knew a think or two and I gave the readers ‘Boom goes the dynamite’ that very same day (about 6 hours later, might have been 12). And I gave the readers “It is speculation, but consider the blast, according to some the blast was noticed well over 100Km away. I do have a point of reference, the Fireworks blast in the Netherlands (Enschede) had a similar effect, but nowhere near the size, the video’s I saw told a different story, one car on the highway with a distance of around 2000 meters away got its windows blown out and the rear view mirrors got blown off the car, and that is one of a few video’s that show me that this was no ordinary blast”, so there was a lager stage and the people who were behind it went under the rocks like cockroaches. I calculated that it took a massive amount of 40’ containers and the cargo, 125 40’ containers worth cannot go up like the way it did, not in one go. And I rote more than one article about that. So when we now see in the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/14/gunfire-beirut-protest-judge-leading-port-blast-inquiry), the setting of ‘Five dead as shooting breaks out at Beirut protests over port blast inquiry’, we now see “demanding end to judge’s investigation of huge blast last year”, all whilst we see Hezbollah types being brave behind their balaclava’s. So whilst we get the terrorist spokespeople Nabih Berri and Hassan Nasrallah make noise, we see the attacks on judge Tarek Bitar continue. I see no surprises, once a terrorist, always a terrorist. And when we see “However, demands that all aspects of the explosion be investigated seem almost impossible to deliver, with ministers summoned for investigation refusing to turn up”, something that I saw and I feel certain plenty of others saw that too, we wonder when Hezbollah will be held to account. So whilst these political chihuahua’s refuse to appear we see the stage changing, a stage where a lot of people are demanding that ALL HELP towards Lebanon will stop until someone correctly muzzles Hezbollah. And I see a reason to divert those aid funds to Israel (if needed). A larger stage erupts as the smaller (2020/8/5) subsides. This is not about local rights, this is about Hezbollah is showing itself as the bully it always was, it was that in 1982, it still is that now. In this I am not making judgement on judge Tarek Bitar, I know too little about him, but the stage that Hezbollah wants it stopped and they are happy to show themselves (often with balaclava’s) exercise that right wielding an RPG-7, or other hardware of the ‘firearms’ variety shows them to be the aggressor, to be the bad apples and now as the energy crises is pushing into winter, the stage of anger changes even more. Now there is a larger explosion and it could go on into its neighbouring places and one of them is Israel the other one is Syria and neither accepts the Hezbollah approach. I nice stage to set and the people of Lebanon do not get a choice in the matter, they let things slide with Hezbollah for too long and this will implode in all kinds of wrong settings. Even now we see all minds of media including Iran in this mess. I cannot follow that as I remain a follower of evidence, but it does make sense. And even in light of the humanitarian side of ‘Hezbollah-run oil shipments from Iran’, enough players were willing to let that slide, but it would not take long until Hezbollah thought it was in control (because to some degree they are) and now the world has had enough, some will stop funds, more will stop goods and Hezbollah will learn what war against hungry and cold fellow citizens look like, they will not give Hezbollah any consideration in all this and neither should we. There comes a time when enough is enough and too many have hit that point now, so as Hezbollah and Amar will seek ‘compensation’ (optionally for their lost explosives), the larger station is no what they want, it is what they were part of and that is what fears them. The Times of Israel gives us “Local commentators said Washington, worried about chaos in Lebanon amid raging, multiple crises, may have decided to look the other way”, but that is not the real deal. The slightly more real deal is “humanitarian assistance in Lebanon to more than $372 million in Fiscal Year 2021” and it has become time to stop that. Let the cancer die, let those people die. This in not inhumane, it is an essential part of stopping terrorism by Hezbollah. If there are no people to care, there are no recruits, there is no Hezbollah and the times and the economic pressure are growing in this direction. It would have been less of an issue if someone muzzled them, but no one did so we have a new stage to look forward to. In the first the UN trying to smooth things over, the other all the heart bleeding people who ache for the people of Lebanon, yet none of them are willing to hold Hezbollah to account, why is that?

To keep instability around? It is too late for that, Wall Street solved that problem for you all. 

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The big match

Yes, most of us can relate to sports, I am all about the biscuit (NHL puck), most are about the balls, some round, some oval, yet in all this we tend to be able to connect to sports, it is almost a global thing. When it is not Chess or Go that is. As such I am keeping an open mind towards the Iran-Saudi Arabia talks. I do hope that Saudi Arabia gets the peace it is entitled to, but personally. In light of all that has transpired, I am not really optimistic that Iran will keep its word, but that is my view of the matter and at present I would be happy to be wrong. 

The first issue
There are a few issues that intertwine and they are not up to Saudi Arabia, the first player is Hezbollah who has been accused a few times to give support to Houthi forces after an alleged call from General Qasem Soleimani. There are a few speculations attached to it, yet the larger stage remains. Iran directly and allegedly indirectly via Hezbollah decided to attack the citizens of Saudi Arabia and engage in a long term proxy war. This issue will resolve itself over time, yet for the tool in that conversation (Hezbollah), we might take notice of ‘Stockpiling fuel from Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah braces for state collapse’ (source: The Arab Weekly), with supporting text “The plan chimes with worries in Lebanon that people will have to rely on political factions for food and security, in the way many did in the militia days of the 1975-1990 civil war. In response to a question about Hezbollah’s plans, Leila Hatoum, an adviser to the caretaker prime minister, said the country was “in no condition to refuse aid” regardless of politics.The sources from the pro-Hezbollah camp, who declined to be named, said the plan for a potential worst-case scenario has gathered pace as an end to subsidies looms in the coming months, raising the spectre of hunger and unrest”, a stage that has one side, yet when Iran has to collapse its assistance, the stage there changes, Hezbollah will no longer be regarded as a local asset, it will be regarded as a larger national liability and that is not a good place for Hezbollah to be in. It is a win-win for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, if this part is not met, Iran will show itself to be a non-peace driven party to the world. If it does, support in Yemen toward the houthi forces becomes a non option quite soon. 

The second issue
The second player in all this is Turkey, it has sided with Iran too often and they are seeing the larger impact, so I was not surprised to see the Middle East Eye give us ‘Turkey’s foreign minister to visit Saudi Arabia, a first in four years’, it is a personal view, but I reckon that they want to get ahead of the curve, kicking the one player that is vocation stability is not a good thing and the larger stage as well as the blatant openly inaccuracies and pushed mis representations regarding a journalist no one cares about (Jamal Khashoggi) will be the larger noose they need to avoid. We might think that there is a focus around “Cavusoglu is expected to make attempts to repair bilateral ties during the visit, but the closure of Turkish schools will be a top issue, sources told MEE. Last week, Turkey’s education ministry said it has been informed by the Saudi authorities that the eight schools, which have a total of 2,256 pupils, will have to close at the end of the current school year. Last month, the education ministry said there were 26 Turkish schools in Saudi Arabia”, yet I believe that this is a ruse. This minister will have some form of apology package with all kinds of considerations. Turkey has no choice, their crypto currency collapse (Thodex and Vebitcoin) with bosses running for the hills (at least one with $2,000,000,000 plus in its USB pockets) and the people angry with losing all they have is the larger setting for civic unrest to a scale they never faced before and that requires all kinds of sides to reduce pressure wherever they can and both Turkey and Iran are happy to let Hezbollah drown on its own. Yes, this is my speculation, but if you followed the news in the last two years, you would end up having similar thoughts.

The third issue
The third issue is Yemen, there is no way around it and these two players are on opposite sides. Even as the media has avoided to a larger extent to show and to report on the unacceptable acts by Houthi forces, the UN who was the target on several occasions has not and that is where Iran find itself at a much larger disadvantage. They might have options if General Qasem Soleimani had been around the last 6 months, but someone solved that problem for many and now the less experienced players have painted themselves in corners and that works to the advantage of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as well. It is more against Iran but that might be mere semantics. Here we see France24 giving us (at https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210506-saudi-walks-diplomatic-high-wire-on-iran-yemen) “Saudi Arabia’s secret talks with arch-rival Iran signal a high-wire diplomatic act as it scrambles to rein in Tehran-backed Yemeni rebels”, as I see it, if Iran wants clear resolutions of the outstanding issues in play they would have to back down to a larger extent, optionally an openly extent to denounce the Houthi forces, but that would be an unrealistic expectation. And I do not disagree when we see “The Houthis would prefer to be their own interlocutor with Saudi Arabia and will not want Iran taking their place in that,” Elana DeLozier, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told AFP”, Elana DeLozier, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy has a clear point there, but these forces will not get too much of an option when Iran walks out, when that happens before the Houthis get any talks going they might end up being on their own and that pretty much ends the Houthi options in Yemen as I see it. As such the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a lot to gain, and with Iran being on everyone’s display they have a larger chance of getting a lot done.

In all this the stage will soon change and I reckon that there was a reason that Mevlut Cavusoglu (Turkish Foreign minister) used the Schools as a reason, The Arab Weekly gives us ‘May 20 deadline to register for Ithra conference in Saudi Arabia’s Dhahran’, which is seemingly also a beautiful place to be and get some informal settings, especially as it is away from Riyadh and has the nice extra to be a setting where the Turkish schools can be discussed openly and optionally talk about a few more issues less openly. As such, If I am correct a few larger issues will be on someone’s table in August so that they might be discussed in September. I reckon that this is the time that both Hezbollah and Houthi forces have left. In 8-12 weeks Turkey might need to get baubles for Euros to avoid a much larger negative national setting and I reckon they are willing to sell a few issues down the river for their own good. It is a personal speculated vision, but I feel that I might be onto something here, Iran will try to avoid making quick decisions, which makes perfect sense, so Turkey needs to get ahead of ending up being the piggy in the middle chasing after the ball and the goods. If Iran gives in too soon Turkey will end up holding the bag and in either scenario Hezbollah will merely forfeit whatever it thought it had in the first place, and there ‘thought they had’ was the operative part in all this and the Houthi forces merely lose. Optionally they will lose twice, because they made enemies of the local population all over the place as well and without Iranian funding these people will be running for the hills all whilst they know that everyone in Yemen will be out to get them. 

Game, set and match for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which comes with a dose of highly needed stability as well. And Iran? That leaves us out in the open, the people might accept a few parts, but the Nuclear deals are still there and Iran is delusional to think that Saudi Arabia (or Israel for that matter) will allow them to continue on the nuclear path they are.

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Why do we bother?

Yup, that was the question that came to mind, you see the so called free world is all about ‘Ballerina with Alzheimer’s returns to Swan Lake’ and ‘Telstra customers overcharged millions’, which is news, I do not deny that, yet as far as I can tell less than an hour ago, only 2 gave us ‘Several injured in explosion at Saudi Armistice Day event’, which comes from the Guardian, and ‘Several injured in ‘bomb attack’ on Armistice Day ceremony at Saudi cemetery’, which we get from France24. For the most I merely looked at it sideways, that is until I saw a small part I was actually unaware of. It is the quote “The annual ceremony commemorating the end of World War I at the non-Muslim cemetery in Jeddah, attended by several consulates, including that of France, was the target of an IED [improvised explosive device] attack this morning, which injured several people”, to be honest I was unaware that Saudi Arabia was active during WW1, and I found out that the two parties were the Idrisid Emirate of Asir and the Emirate of Nejd and Hasa, they would later become part of what is now the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 

So the western media will rely on fake news to bash Saudi Arabia, yet a WW1 commemoration is seemingly off limits for a larger group of the media to comment on. Yes, that makes perfect sense, and you wonder why there is no action on fake news? From my speculative view it might be because the news itself is heralding fake news as means to set agenda’s. Off course I will admit to the fact that my view is speculative, but in light of what we are shown again and again, am I that far off?

The papers also give us “his country’s commitment to free speech, strict secular traditions and right to blasphemy, President Emmanuel Macron promised France would not “renounce caricatures””, I get it. I might not agree, but I get it, in part because the French Revolution was one bloody mosaic of blood and guts and lasted a fair bit, so they have a stage, yet the stage of blasphemy ‘the action or offence of speaking sacrilegiously about God or sacred things’ is a dangerous setting. The ‘freedom’ to attack any religion is something that never sat well with me. It always reminds me of this joke:

Reverend: We should unite and find harmony, we both worship our heavenly father
Pastor: Indeed
Reverend: You serve him your way
Pastor: Correct
Reverend: I serve him the way he prefers to be served
Pastor: ….

Yes, being a christian is not an easy thing, and finding a safe course to guide any conversation on politics or religion tends to be one with dangerous waters. I admit to this, yet to openly confront islam by making caricatures of Mohammed and making it a larger freedom is a big issue. And I get the schools have an issue explaining freedom of speech, but the school teacher had dozens of options to show before he got to the drawing of Mohamed, history is filled with them. And when we remember the news in 2017 where we see ‘FRANCE IS BANNING COMPANIES FROM PHOTOSHOPPING IMAGES OF MODELS IN ADVERTS’, so where is the free speech, the secular need to blaspheme the human shape for the good of free speech? Isn’t a double standard nice to have? I am sort of wondering how “In a bid to tackle misleading promotions”, perhaps it is ‘you can be this thin, apply for a position in the Fritzl basement, you will end up 5 sizes smaller, we will fit you with ankle jewellery. Perhaps that was misleading? 

What bothers me is that most events taking place in Saudi Arabia is either an attack on Saudi Arabia, or a misleading setting where the actions of Hezbollah and Iran are left out of the equation, and I believe it is time that we alter that need. It is time to openly demand the list of shareholders, stake holders and advertisers of anyone found complicit in this. I wonder how many links to power players we end up seeing.

And it is important, because when the equation changes, these same people will scream that they are not given a fair go, and as I personally see it, nothing will be farther from the truth. So when we are treated to “Zain KSA’s 5G services will certainly unlock new prospects for these regions, enabling us to provide residents and citizens with tools for innovation and development, and to support the wise leadership’s efforts aiming towards achieving economic diversification and increasing the competitiveness of the national economy.”Zain launched commercial 5G operations in Saudi Arabia in October 2019. In the initial deployment phase, the telco deployed 2,000 towers that covered an area of more than 20 cities across Saudi Arabia”, we are given a first direct setting where Saudi Arabia has an active business ability in designing and deploying 5G solutions. Yet only this year did we get “Verizon Communications (VZ), AT&T (T), and T-Mobile US (TMUS) have all begun rolling out next-generation 5G networks in markets across the U.S., promising faster speeds, greater capacity, and lower latency” in this we need to take particular notice of ‘have all begun rolling out’ and when we ask for tower information we get ‘a large amount of investment going toward 5G-ready cell sites’, clear English was never in the interest of the business spinner. It gets us towards comical when we consider VentureBeat giving us ‘The U.S. now has 4 live 5G networks, but good luck actually using them’, we see  larger stage and the US is falling behind, it does so at an alarming rate, so whilst we take notice of “Just days after blasting rivals AT&T and Verizon for lying about their limited 5G offerings, T-Mobile commenced initial service on June 28, becoming the last U.S. national carrier to launch 5G”, they need an actual working stage for app developers to get their zoom spot on (or G-Spot), whatever floats their network. So when we got “Just like Verizon, which launched pre-standards 5G home broadband service in small parts of Los Angeles last year, T-Mobile’s current coverage appears to be sparing at best. Initial reports from a small group of testers suggest that the magenta brushstrokes in Manhattan are a bit too thick and numerous given actual 5G connectivity on the ground, and that’s the best of its six cities”, I knew that my IP had no business being in the US at the point and when we consider  we got last July “The problem is that the width of the “lanes” used to transmit data at those frequencies are very narrow, which means that the speeds are not much different from 4G. That’s certainly not what we were led to believe 5G was going to be able to do”, with the emphasis on ‘the speeds are not much different from 4G’, which show us (in part) WHY 5G in Saudi Arabia is 750% faster. So when we look at all the spin, the spin I warned about in 2018, we see why anyone siding with the US is now in a stage that they are 3-5 years behind, and even more shameful on them, they are behind Saudi Arabia and China in this. So when you wonder where the new innovative 5G options come from, consider that they will less and less likely be coming from the USA.

In light of what might be seen as the betrayal of technology, how do you find your level of blasphemy to be when you are up against a Saudi Programmer who has an app that is 2-5 times faster? If speed is the determining factor in 4G and 5G, what else are you losing out on?

I stated it before, 4G was about ‘Where ever you are’, 5G will be about ‘Whenever you want it’, and my IP saw that benefit upfront, are you catching on yet? You see, if you were aware of all the news that we are not getting regarding the KSA and their options, we would be better prepared, but the is not the case and should the Virgin Hyperloop get that Saudi Contract, we will be falling behind even more. Gee, for those who care, the Xbox is out now, too bad the 75GB downloads are not on a 5G setting, are they? And d you have the bandwidth to get all that data across?

Have fun!

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Hindsight intelligence differs

Yup, there is. rather large different between the hindsight intelligent that comes from the Monday morning quarterback and the intelligence that we see when we look at the timeline. There is a large difference between the two and I will not explain the difference. I will however show you some hindsight intelligence.

The information is gives in a few ways, but I will rely on ‘Saudi air defences shoot down Houthi drone’ (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/1746741/saudi-arabia). Here we see “An explosive-laden drone targeting the southern part of the Kingdom was intercepted and destroyed by the Arab coalition backing Yemen’s internationally recognised government on Saturday”, you see it is not different, it is not not unexpected. The stage of the operator differs, as such it goes to support that Iranian troops were actively engaged when the Aramco site was attacked by drones and missiles. Yet the western media does not report, and it will not act on Iranian actions against civilian targets. So the group that misses again and again, had several perfect hits on two target sites? There is no way that this is an actual case, leaving us with optional additional evidence that Iranian forces were behind the Aramco attacks.

Even as we are told “Iran-backed Houthi militias have been launching missile, drone and rocket strikes targeting civilian centers in Saudi Arabia for the past few years”, the stage is not merely ‘Iran-Backed’ there is a larger stage where Iran is actively training and handling equipment in active engagements against Saudi Arabia. This is not some speculation, the evidence is there, the levels of engagement, the act then and the lack of skills by the Houthi forces, the last one is not an issue, but it shows the situation when we re-consider the attack on Aramco sites. And even as we think that journalistically it is sound to use ‘Iran-backed’, the setting of active engagement is seen on a much larger scale. The most recent news is from Reuters a month ago, most western media will not even report on acts against Saudi Arabia, even then we are most likely to see “Abha airport, near the border, has been a regular target for Houthi drones and missiles in the last two years. Many have been intercepted, but some have hit, causing deaths and injuries” with little to no mention of Iran at all. Yes the stage of an impartial press and a so self-stated of their honest press is missing the beat of honesty to a much larger extent. We can agree that they are cautious to blame Iran for this, yet for the most several of the attacks got no news coverage at all, which sets a much larger stage of anti-Saudi sentiment, with optional one sided reporting. And as we the notice of “Al-Maliki said the launching of the drone shows how the Houthis continue their systematic attacks on civilian targets in Saudi Arabia” we see the ignored stage in intentional targeting civilian targets by Houthi forces, with additional support from Iran, the last one is not in question as Houthi forces have no ways to create and manufacture drones in Yemen. I reckon the press forgot about the latter part. As such we wonder why Saudi Arabia is very defensive on accusations against them? When they are openly attacked by Hezbollah and Iranian forces acting with impunity from Yemen (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/1630276), we need to wonder, can we blame them? 

When you want something, remaining ignorant and in denial of what is happening there is not the best way to go about it, but that might merely be me.

Have a great pre-weekend prep day (Friday).

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Israel is to the right

Yup, we can see Israel from where some are standing, that is if you are standing in Egypt. You see, we look at the middle east and we seemingly forget that Egypt is a player here (even as it is in Africa), so when I see Israel Hayom giving us ‘Egypt-Jordan-Iraq: Another Middle East axis in the making?’ I am not overly surprised. I am a little surprised on the use of the word ‘axis’, but that is not the greatest breach of settings. For the most, we tend to look at that word negative, but the clean meaning is “an agreement or alliance between two or more countries that forms a centre for an eventual larger grouping of nations”, it does make sense in a few ways, especially Jordan, for them the issue is not Israel, it is the setting of any escalation coming from Syria. Even as we are given “all three countries are poor and dependent in for economic largesse on more wealthy partners, so their regional aspirations and strategies will necessarily be limited”, we see a setting that is correct, but not essentially right. Let me explain, there is a mess from both Palestine and Syria flowing over, these three nations will get the first brunt, for a player like Saudi Arabia or the UAE aligning with their needs in some form of support would go a long way and whatever countering is required could happen that way. In all Jordan is due to location the weakest, but they all need to set the security of their nation and as such there others might consider chipping in towards that security, let’s not forget that Saudi Arabia is linked to the north to both Jordan and Iraq. In this whatever comes for Saudi Arabia (Hezbollah and Iran) would most likely be spilled through Jordan and Iraq. 

There are several reasons for the choices the the three nations seem to advocate, but for the most it he’s towards the ‘needs’ of Hezbollah, who ignored options for the longest time, as such I am not in favour of them, in this Hezbollah made its own best and for them becoming the tool of Iran sends a much larger problem equation than any solution thrown the way. Yet, in all Jordan requires support and protection, yes we can go towards another pipeline, but the setting here is not merely what can be, but the future of what is and for that the (by official count) a solution needs to be found for the 750,000 refugees there, I reckon that the actual size is well over twice that. So to find support on those settings to deviate pressures in Jordan is essential and that is before you realise that 750,000 people tend to get thirsty and water is not something that Jordan has an abundance of, so the pressures are only increasing. Even as sources give us “Jordan is struggling to deliver enough fresh water to its population and farmers. Water access is particularly erratic during drought events, which have been increasing in frequency and severity. Groundwater levels drop by roughly a meter annually, the result of prolonged drought and of the proliferation of thousands of illegal wells that are pumping the country’s aquifers to extinction”, we see a text that does not mention those refugees, they too will dig out of thirst and there we get a much larger issue on all of it. As the situation in Jordan is not improved, this so called axis will depend on Iraq and Egypt, a small change that ISIL, Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood would like very much, because the pressures over there work to their advantage. You forgot about those players, didn’t you?

Even as some sources give us ‘Islamic State steps up attacks in Syria and Iraq: UN experts’, here the text “The experts monitoring sanctions against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda said it is unclear whether the Islamic States’ new leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi Al-Qurayshi, can effectively lead the extremist group’s diverse and far-flung supporters and affiliates” would relax the wrong people for too much, especially when we consider “Parts of Iraq, especially areas in Anbar province near the Syrian border, “also represent a permissive security environment for the movement of ISIL fighters,” I believe (a personal speculation) that the setting is actually worse, thee is every setting where people seem to shoot allegiances in Egypt and Iraq, it is not merely there, there is a much larger ‘permissive security environment’ in both Egypt and Jordan, in some cases not intentionally, but the refugee setting seems to fuel adherence to extremism and it is there the Jordan has a much larger problem, for the simple reason the it creates a funnel between Iraq and Egypt via the Sinai and when we consider ‘Egypt says 18 suspected armed fighters killed in Sinai firefight’, Egypt needs to consider that the setting might be much worse, I have actually been there, if you see 18, there is every chance you missed 60 more and where would they go to? The Sinai is a strategic point that allows for incursions in Egypt, Israel AND Jordan, so who would get hit and more important, who would get hit next? I do not know but the field is open from the point onwards, especially when ISIS, ISIL and the Muslim Brotherhood thrive on chaos.

So whilst you wonder whether I am exaggerating (always an option), consider my setting the next flame up in that region and the stage that is behind it.

 

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One sided coin

When is a one-sided coin like a watchdog? That is the underlying question, and the answer is seen in this article ‘When they are shallow’. We all have needs, we all have centred targets, but what happens when that setting makes you miss the larger picture? Don’t get me wrong, I have nothing against watchdogs, I have nothing against the media, or politicians, but when they give a one sided brief just to please themselves, how shallow will they be? It is not the first time, but in this case it starts with ‘US watchdog report cites civilian casualties in Saudi arms deal’, now this might be correct, might being the operative word and not towards optionally pointing fingers and not towards the setting. We see “The Saudi-UAE air raids hit farms, schools, water supplies, and energy sources, triggering what the United Nations has described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis” now, I am not making a statement that they did not do that, but in all that, was it truly some civilian hit target or were there Houthi and/or Hezbollah fighters there? So whilst some focus on ‘precision-guided-munition components’, no one is looking what they were clearly firing on, because that too is an unknown. So whilst some focus on one side of “Tens of thousands of Yemenis, many of them civilians, have been killed by the Saudi-UAE air strikes – often with American-made weapons, targeting information and aerial refuelling support”, in a stage where should consider on ‘how many were civilians (and how many were not)’ in the sentence “Tens of thousands of Yemenis, many of them civilians”, yes we can hide behind ‘many of them’, but precision is essential, even if the weapons are not. In addition Representative Eliot Engel, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee gives us ““This obvious pre-spin of the findings reeks of an attempt to distract and mislead,” Engel said, adding that he feared the classified annex to the report would be “used to bury important or possibly incriminating information””, and I am not debating that, yet in all this, the stage where Eliot Engel is optionally helping our the Iranians, that is still up for debate, is it not? So when we check NPR and we see the question “Congress had concerns about $8 billion in arms sales to Saudi Arabia, and those concerns included how the arms might be used in the war in Yemen” and the only thing that Eliot Engel gives us is “Yeah”? By the way the interview (at https://www.npr.org/2020/08/11/901431799/engel-discusses-ig-report-on-u-s-selling-8-billion-worth-of-arms-in-middle-east) gives us nothing on ‘Iran’, ‘Houthi’ and ‘Hezbollah’, three tags that are essential in the Yemeni war, as well as the current Saudi Arabian state of affairs, so why are they missing? So whilst Engel gives us “Meaning that all the excuses that they give us, all the reasons they give us for doing what they have to do are phony and are made up. It’s just that they don’t – they want to have freedom to operate, not have the public know anything, certainly not have Congress know anything. And this is the way they’ve operated from day one. And it’s not really, you know – on the Foreign Affairs Committee, this is our jurisdiction. We’re supposed to be investigating these things, and they look at us as somehow intruding on their private purview”, a view that is his and might be valid, but the Yemeni war is larger and the three elements (Houthi, Hezbollah and Iran) are left out of it giving us an unbalanced and one sided story. Now, there is a side that accept, the US can decide on how it does business and who it does business with, and consider the hilarity we see when that $8,000,000,000 dollars goes to the Chinese or Russian treasury coffers? The US has been alienating its middle eastern partners to such an extent (all whilst ignoring to a larger degree the activities by Iran), we need to see the way that ball rolls down the hill and away from the congressional weapons sales teams. So whilst some might applaud the activity of watchdogs, the absence of the whole picture is actually rather disturbing. Not merely to the stage, but the fallout is other large. This does not reflect on Eliot Engel, but his congressional party is seemingly ignoring a much larger stage and this stage includes both Hezbollah and Iran, so why is Eliot Engel and his band of naughty congressionals ignoring that? Consider that the people for a week have been aware of ‘Saudi Arabia’s project clears 177,637 Houthi mines in Yemen’, now, we accept that some would have originated in Yemen, but not all and when we see these elements in the equation (and that is merely the beginning of that mess), we need to wonder why the US watchdog is so one sided. An investigation into the forces active in Yemen, as well as the weapons used and one side is left off the table completely. So how does your humanitarian side react to that? Oh and for desert I offer ’84.000 children in Yemen are dead, who is holding the Houthi and their methods to account?

 

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This is boom, that is not

Yet, Beirut, the place where buildings get free air-conditioning through the application of 7.62mm ammunition, the place where something went boom and it enraged a whole lot of people, yet on August 5th I wrote in ‘Boom goes the dynamite’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/08/05/boom-goes-the-dynamite/), we see “It is speculation, but consider the blast, according to some the blast was noticed well over 100Km away. I do have a point of reference, the Fireworks blast in the Netherlands (Enschede) had a similar effect, but nowhere near the size, the video’s I saw told a different story, one car on the highway with a distance of around 2000 meters away got its windows blown out and the rear view mirrors got blown off the car, and that is one of a few video’s that show me that this was no ordinary blast” and it was merely the toppling of issues. We get to see a better picture when we consider “Ammonium nitrate does not burn on its own” (Source: American Scientific), it is merely the foundation. When we consider “For combustion to occur, oxygen must be present. Ammonium nitrate prills provide a much more concentrated supply of oxygen than the air around us. This is why it is effective in mining explosives, where it’s mixed with oil and other fuels. At high enough temperatures, however, ammonium nitrate can violently decompose on its own. This process creates gases including nitrogen oxides and water vapour. It is this rapid release of gases that causes an explosion” we need to look any the explosion again (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdSHRbSZkwc), it is one of many explosions, and as you see there was a fire in the vicinity, but the explosion is violent and complete. The stage is in two fold, in the first, Ammonium nitrate doesn’t burn well and to explode oil is used. The images we see could not be done if it was merely the ammonium nitrate. It is my view and I am not the expert (I did study chemistry), yet experts tell me ‘Ammonium nitrate does not burn on its own’, all the footage I have seen give implication that this was not merely ammonium nitrate, yet Scientific American also give us “It’s stable under normal conditions, but you can do things to it that will cause it to misbehave. The main trigger is an external heat source. Depending on how you want to count it, there have been probably somewhere between 20 and 30 major catastrophic explosions with ammonium nitrate since it came on the scene as a commercial product in the 1920s. And fire is a frequent trigger. It’s the heat of the fire that warms up the ammonium nitrate that can become a problem”, it seems that everyone is willing to give Hezbollah a pass on this event. I am not willing to do so, even if they merely blew up their own city, there is a stage where we need to consider what else was there and was it meant for pro-Houthi or anti-Israel actions? In an age where we see a whole range of analytics and geometric based analyses, in this the Guardian gives us ‘The explosion that devastated the city was no accident and anger is boiling over’, and then we see “It was so huge it was heard in Cyprus. It was so huge it shattered glass and ripped doors off their hinges kilometres away. It incinerated trees, tore the red roofs off centuries-old buildings and brought the blue sea inland. It left 5,000 injured and 154 dead – so far. There are many still missing under the rubble”, which leaves us with the setting that it all went up in one big explosion, consider the fact that it required (read: used) 2,750,000 Kg of ammonium nitrate, I get that there might be an explosion, but IT ALL exploded at once is the larger issue, the facts do not support it. And the fear of some is merely strengthening my view. With “We don’t really know how this ammonium nitrate, confiscated from a ship and stored in unsafe conditions in the middle of our city for six years, ignited. Because those who are responsible are actively rejecting an international investigation”, and in this I see their fear, international experts will bare out what I expect, there were explosives there and that contributed to the much larger explosion, not a fire, and that gets us to Hezbollah, it will feel the brunt of rage from the Lebanese people. Something it cannot afford at present. My initial speculation that Iran handed out of date materials beneath cost price is still on the table, as dynamite sweats nitroglycerine and in the heat in Lebanon it would fuse the ammonium nitrate as well. Yet some media is giving us ‘it requires a combination of things and that seems to have happened’, or something to that regard. They all avoid Iran and Hezbollah in all this, true there would be some speculation linked to it, but things that go boom to this degree requires much more investigation, I do not disagree with this, but blasé painting over the stage with paint of the colour ‘that seems to have happened’ is not the way to go. 

 

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Boom goes the dynamite

Yup, I got this from a trainee presenter in an American show, it stuck and now as we see the numbers come from Beirut and the devastating boom that the population in Beirut is facing, the term stuck again. I have waded through 4 hours of video, I read the articles and the sage does not  make sense. Yet, be aware that a lot of it is speculative, so do not take this as gospel, or as given facts, even as I try to go from some of the revealed facts, they too are up for reconsideration of optional inaccurate facts.

The Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/aug/04/beirut-explosion-huge-blast-port-lebanon-capital), gives us a lot of small facts, but some sources like CNN (and others) give us “2,750 metric tons of ammonium nitrate, a highly explosive material used in fertilizers and bombs, had been stored for six years at a port warehouse without safety measures, “endangering the safety of citizens,” according to a statement”, first of all the number comes down to 2,750,000 kilograms, which is not a lot, it is a massive amount to have. In a nation (with explosive needs or not), where there is a shortage of all things, that amount of fertiliser amounts to 125 40 foot containers, filled to the brink with fertiliser, and it was there for 6 years (according to some). When you realise the events can be seen in other light, the numbers do not add up, yet the explosion was real. 

Speculation
So why if there was more than fertiliser there? Consider Iran has been supplying Hezbollah with volatile goods for a long time, what happens when TNT (or dynamite) stats sweating? Now consider that we weren’t dealing with 125 containers, but with a mere 4 containers, but with TNT and it was kept in what some would consider the safest place, also consider that it had been there for a few months and sweating explosives tend to sweat nitro glycerine. Consider that Iran made a deal with surplus stuff and it backfired on its customer.

It is speculation, but consider the blast, according to some the blast was noticed well over 100Km away. I do have a point of reference, the Fireworks blast in the Netherlands (Enschede) had a similar effect, but nowhere near the size, the video’s I saw told a different story, one car on the highway with a distance of around 2000 meters away got its windows blown out and the rear view mirrors got blown off the car, and that is one of a few video’s that show me that this was no ordinary blast. Even as it is understandable that the real cause cannot be known yet, we see within 13 hours “2,750 tons of chemicals detonated”, the explanation is very much too soon. But I get the inkling of dire need to set a story out there, in light of the explosive nature of goods that Hezbollah relies on in Beirut. So when we consider “Over time, regardless of the sorbent used, sticks of dynamite will “weep” or “sweat” nitroglycerin, which can then pool in the bottom of the box or storage area. For that reason, explosive manuals recommend the repeated turning over of boxes of dynamite in storage”, and when we consider that and the supplier to Hezbollah, no matter where it would be stored, is my speculation so thin? Or is it a lot closer to the truth than you would imagine? And when we consider the shortage seem in Lebanon, consider 125 containers of goods untouched for 6 years, or 4 containers with Dynamite untouched (or partially touched) for 6 months, what is more likely? 

It is linked to a second speculation, what if Iran had to get rid of explosives that have a limited time left? Who would be appreciative of receiving explosives at below cost price? I feel certain that this is a direction that Iran did not anticipated, but it is what it is and remember, I am speculating here, yet in this case is it more likely than not is the question and yes, we need to await the real news, but as I see it, the media is accepting the 2,750,000 kilograms of Ammonium nitrate that was in folly stored for 6 years, and remember one small detail “Ammonium nitrate does not burn on its own”, and there was already a fire, I will also give you “Ammonium nitrate decomposition can be set off if an explosion occurs where it’s stored, if there is an intense fire nearby. The latter is what happened in the 2015 Tianjin explosion, which killed 173 people after flammable chemicals and ammonium nitrate were stored together at a chemicals factory in eastern China” The events seem to add up, but the amounts do not (as I personally see it), no matter how we see this, certain people have lost a lot, they will lose a lot more and Iran gets to be a supplier yet once again.

 

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Champion from Stockholm

I feel a little out of my league, I will be honest, the moment my view, the view I belief to be right is under fire by a Nobel laureate, I feel that I am on the losing side. Yet, the article cannot be avoided. To do this, there is a time track, no matter how we are given “Saudi Arabia is legally responsible for war crimes in Yemen”, we need to take a look at the time line. “The help from Saudi Arabia was requested by at that time the rightful ruler of Yemen. So as we are given “The human rights activist made her comment after it was reported that the French judiciary has opened an investigation against Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed who is accused of complicity in the torture of prisoners in Yemen detention centres controlled by the UAE armed forces. The French can look into such cases on the basis of universal jurisdiction.” (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200722-saudi-arabia-is-legally-responsible-for-war-crimes-in-yemen-insists-nobel-laureate/), we are not seeing the actions that both Hezbollah and Houthi forces are a part of, so how are these entered in the whole of things? 

As I see it no version of “In a related context” is seemingly correct, the matter does not add up, and optionally for me it never will, I am aware of that, yet there is no version and no related context where we can look at all this and set apart the atrocities of the Houthi forces, the acts by Hezbollah and all in a stage where Iran is the puppet master behind the screen. So whilst Houthi forces are calling for an investigation into both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, when will the acts of the Houthi forces be held to account, not after, that much is a given. 

In all this, my sage is that Nobel Laureate Tawakkol Karman has a rather large station to fill, in the first there is the ‘legally responsible’ part, a stage we ignore because it is uncomfortable, but the stage includes that official help was requested by a legitimate elected office and that office is what the Houthi forces detest. Their actions make the entire ‘legally responsible’ moot to say the least, and that is before we add the station where they fired on Saudi civilian targets, war is hell, but as I see it they ca take a kissing booth ticket and present it to the nearest Afreet (he is currently resting in a bed of sand and stone around 140 KM North of Ubar Oman), perhaps there they will find the ear they were hoping for, of course Aarif was never one to pass up the taste of the ignorant soul, so good luck with that. 

No matter how you view this case and we do agree that she (Tawakkol Karman) is entitled to a view, and as she is Yemeni, we can all (including myself) agree that she has a more entitled view than I have. Yet where was she in the last 5 years? When we seek her Google search entries, we do not see that many, and a few are not relating to her view on the war, so why is she ‘so active’ now? Is that not a fair question too?

We see all the mentions on her being part of the Muslim Brotherhood, her setting as a Yemeni-Turkish activist. It might be true, it might not, I have not investigated that evidence, this is about her view of making Saudi Arabia responsible. I am not stating that Saudi Arabia is innocent, but any guilt needs to include the actions of Houthi forces, Hezbollah forces in Yemen and Iran and that is not happening. So as we give visibility to this Stockholm Champion, we need to also see that she is painting an incomplete picture. As a Dutch comedian once said, you cannot refer to the book ‘Ali Baba and the 40 thieves’, it is apparantly now named ‘Ali Baba and the 40 fighters for the Palestinian cause’, time changes everything, even the foundation of what we see and the timeline is important in all this, time is thee only valid measurement. It shows us where the situation was and the mess started with the elected officials calling for help, it is interesting how many people are dismissing that part of the equation. And seemingly it includes people wth a Nobel Price, it is as interesting as the way that price got its money in the first place.

 

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A pawn in nuclearity

There was an article, now 7 hours old, but I had seen it before, a day earlier I believe. I left it alone as I had to ponder a few items in this stage. You see the article reading ‘Nuclear Gulf: Is Saudi Arabia pushing itself into a nuclear trap?’ (at https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/nuclear-gulf-saudi-arabia-pushing-nuclear-trap-200718155513128.html) is giving us the part that matters “if Iran gets them first”, and as I see it focusses less on the danger that Iran is to the entire Middle East if they have them first. Even as we notice “The spectre of the Saudi-Iran Cold War escalating into a nuclear arms race is not beyond the realm of possibility”, we remain increasingly ignorant of “EU says Iran has triggered nuclear deal dispute mechanism” (at https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/04/eu-says-iran-has-triggered-nuclear-deal-dispute-mechanism-348680). The setting is not merely that Iran is seeking to become a Nuclear power, when we see “In January, the European architects of the deal triggered the dispute resolution mechanism provision in the accord, which is aimed at forcing Iran to return to compliance or potentially face the reimposition of international sanctions. They later suspended the action” we see the setting that the EU is sanctifying the Iranian actions, whilst diminishing the powers to stop Iran, this is a path that EU (et al) want this to happen, there are forces that want destabilisation of the Middle East and Iran having a nuclear options achieves that. 

And that is not the end of the EGO of the EU, when we see “EU’s top diplomat said that he remains “determined to continue working with the participants of the JCPOA and the international community to preserve [the deal]” and we see that this was three months ago, all whilst since then  we see no later than yesterday ‘EU Vows Greater Efforts to Safeguard Nuclear Accord’ (source: Financial times) we need to realise that this imbalance will have larger consequences in the Middle East and the players are not of the cooperative type (read: the EU and Iran). So even as Saudi Arabia is not looking forward to becoming a nuclear power, they are pushed by a larger group into this direction, and I wonder why this is. The stated setting that adding to the nuclear pool was to be stopped by nuclear forces is now setting a stage where an entire corridor from India to Israel is nuclear loaded. How is this a good idea ever? Consider India v Pakistan, Iran v Saudi Arabia & Israel, this can only end in disaster and as I personally see it the EU ego is not ready to deal with the fallout from this (literally so), as such I wonder why a larger group of nations is not standing pro-Saudi Arabia or anti-Iran in this (which of the two does not really matter). So as Al Jazeera gives us “Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions date back to at least 2006, when the kingdom started exploring nuclear power options as part of a joint programme with other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council”, they fail to give us the reasoning that Saudi Arabia “Saudi Arabia’s population has grown from 4 million in 1960 to over 31 million in 2016”, as I see it, power requirements have grown somewhere between 300%-500%, making Nuclear power one of the remaining options in the short term for Saudi Arabia, Iran on the other hand has been clear about becoming a nuclear power weapons wise, Al Jazeera also does not give us the fact that Saudi Arabia openly stated that they prefer not to have Nuclear weapons, but if Iran has them, Saudi Arabia feels forced to have them as well, making Iran the instigators in all this, yet the EU is seemingly oblivious to this. I wonder why? So when we look at the Financial Times again and see “He pointed to the beginning of discussions in 2003, which led to the conclusion of JCPOA and said, “It took 12 years to break the differences and to cut a deal. It was a big success for effective multilateralism and it has been a success because the JCPOA has delivered on its promises.”” We see an absence. The absence is that it took only 3 years for the deal to be broken by Iranian violations, but it seems that this part is largely not shown in many places. Yet in all this Saudi Arabia is named the pawn. I wonder why?

So as Saudi Arabia is entering the nuclear stage soon enough, we need to worry in other ways too. The EU was massively ignorant, or perhaps from my point of view it was intentionally ignorant on all these Houthi forces (as well as Hezbollah) have been practicing their missile firing abilities on Saudi Arabia, who what happens when one of them is a nuclear one? What happens when Iran ‘accidentally’ misplaces two of them? One for Israel and one for Saudi Arabia? Where will we find these Eu ego’s? The issues we have seen over the past give rise to this train of thought and Iran is not above the act of misplacing items. Has anyone found all these misplaced drones yet that accidentally made it into Houthi hands?

When we see the amount of pussyfooting around Iran, we need to consider the trap we set up for ourselves, it does not make Saudi Arabia the pawn, it makes us all the payers of high priced oil, because when this goes bad, really bad he price of oil will be close to 400% of what it is today, so when you at the pump, you realise what is about to happen to your budget, all thanks to the ego of some EU officials who should have played hard ball from the start.

 

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