Tag Archives: Simply Wall Street

June 22, 2026 · 18:20

Journey with a twist

Several things happened in the last 24 hours. A LinkedIn post set it off. It was about that Palantir was finished, it was a done deal. That stirred a few memories. You see I was introduced to Palantir Government in the late 90s, before it became Palantir Gotham. There was Palantir Finance (I think that this is what now goes for as Palantir Metropolis), but I never saw that. It was a good program and it was powerful. It did not have the bells and whistles that Clementine (now IBM Miner) had, but it was an excellent program and I was looking for my next Customer Service role (I was in a bit of a bad space), so as I had heard of the Palantir events over the year, that post did not make sense to me. So I decided to take a look and find out for myself (I don’t trust anything on social media that I have not personally verified with at least one good source (like a decent newspaper). I found out a lot more than I bargained for. In the first Palantir Technologies Inc is valued at 307.98 billion, this makes sense later on. 

Then I saw ‘Palantir trades into the week as France move puts ai at risk in Europe’ (at https://ts2.tech/en/palantir-trades-into-the-week-as-france-move-puts-ai-at-risk-in-europe/), there we see “Palantir ended June 18 at $128.47, dropping 1.65% for the day but up roughly 0.4% from where it closed on June 12. France’s DGSI is moving to ChapsVision, selecting the company to take over from Palantir as its supplier over several years. Palantir said its current contract is still active.” The French Connection (sorry Popeye) is about to make sense. You see, the rumbling that this White House has embarked on is now showing its rather large nasty feathers. The world is shunning anything from the United States and France sees the setting that and is moving and banking on the French solution called ChapsVision, we are given “ChapsVision is a leading player in the field of artificial intelligence and data processing. With proven technologies that accelerate data acquisition, preparation and processing, ChapsVision supports businesses and government organizations in their digital transformation.” As I see it, it is a (largely) financial solution, and getting up to speed of where Palantir is will take a few years. But France is banking on its ‘local’ solution and with that the European market opens up to France and yes this is likely to be a drain on where Palantir wants to be. So in comes the second story.

This comes from Simply Wall Street (at https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-pltr/palantir-technologies/news/palantir-technologies-pltr-stock-could-be-20-overvalued-even) where we see ‘Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Stock Could Be 20% Overvalued Even If Growth Stays Strong’ and here the first red flag comes up, Simply Wall Street does not give a writer, just hide it under the rug (as the expression goes) but there is where the loon try to find stuff, so now we see the initial; value, Which was $308 billion, now we get the other part (which I left out) “Palantir reported a record annual revenue of $4.475 billion for fiscal year 2025. This marked a 56% year-over-year growth compared to their 2024 results, heavily driven by massive domestic adoption of their artificial intelligence platforms.” So when you see this, the 20% overvalued does not make sense. We see what might be coming in 2027/2028, but that is not now and the stages are set to what I personally believe is that someone wants to play a little game called ‘shorting the stock’, if there is enough babbles and bitcoin people, they will overlook what matters and just dump their Palantir stock. Now, be mindful, I am not an economist and I have no economic degrees, but I have three University degrees and a few more ‘accolades’ as I think they are called in data technology and data analyses. I believe that some are thinking that Palantir is a weakling waiting to be plucked and that is not happening on my watch as as I see it, LinkedIn is being used for that and political endings too much. These people are hiding behind “That is what I see and I have a right to speak” that’s fair, but we can expose you as well, so that is the other side of this and Palantir has some of the most powerful software in the world to do just that. I think that Palantir needs to look into the enemies they have. But that is up to them and I wasn’t done yet.

There was more, you see the Guardian gives another side (at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jun/13/palantir-loses-legal-challenge-to-force-swiss-magazine-to-publish-rejoinders) where we see ‘Palantir loses legal challenge to force Swiss magazine to publish responses’, I feel uneasy on this. I get that Palantir wants to learn “to force a Swiss independent magazine to publish its responses to articles about how the Swiss government rejected its services.” My doubt is that any government can reject services, but they tend to give reasons, isn’t that the case? So when a magazine collects responses, would that not be in the interest of the world to learn the how and why? I agree that this cannot have personalized data, but the entire mess comes across as weird. But the entire setting is what this White House is inflicting on the business end of the businesses of the United States. I saw it coming to some degree, but not to this degree (as I personally see it, the US Administration comes across as absolutely bug-nuts), if you doubt this, consider the simple setting of Measles in the United States, what it was in 2024 and what it is now and that is just for starters. The world is, as they say, fed up with the United States. Should you think I am wrong you could ask that bella bambina Meloni, you can find her at Via dell’Impresa 89, Rome, Italy. Believe me, she has a story for you, it will knock your socks off.

The stage is not her, or what Palantir is facing, but as we see this evolve we see more and more American services being rejected by the EU and Commonwealth to a larger degree. And as I see it, some (like Microsoft) are already running like chickens without a coup in all the offices, because there bonuses are set to keeping the status quo, so the larger bulk of CEO’s are seeing a rather large bump in what they could expect to see diminish.

And for one, Simply Wall Street (yet again) now gives us ‘Palantir Stock And 2 Software Picks With Earnings Growth And Strong Balance Sheets’ (at https://simplywall.st/stocks/jp/semiconductors/tse-285a/kioxia-holdings-shares/news/palantir-stock-and-2-software-picks-with-earnings-growth-and) giving us a second different view. Where we see “Palantir generates about US$2.8b in revenue from Government customers and US$2.5b from Commercial customers, with most of its sales coming from the United States and the rest split between the United Kingdom and other international markets.” As I see it, that sounds more like it and it is about what I have seen and expected, and with the additional “Palantir Technologies has become a focal point for investors looking at real world AI adoption, as its platforms power everything from U.S. defense programs to fast growing U.S. commercial clients. Recent revenue growth of 133% shows how quickly customers are scaling usage. The company combines very high profitability, including a 43.7% net margin and 26.8% return on equity, with a debt free balance sheet and strong cash holdings, which stands out in the software sector. At the same time, the stock trades on rich valuation multiples, insiders have been selling shares and contracts such as the UK NHS data platform face political scrutiny. That mix of quality fundamentals, AI partnerships with groups like Google Cloud and concentrated government exposure creates a story that deserves closer inspection.” At what point does that give credence to the setting that it was 20% overvalued? Perhaps that might be true (I am an economic noob) as gamers would state, but the settings are off. I get that Palantir will face a much harder 2027 and optionally 2028, but ChapsVision isn’t in all the other places yet, this could happen and it will eat away from the pie that is now Palantir, and I for one do not think their excellence in Gotham is easily matched, but give it time and in 2029 it might be a different story, but that is looking too far ahead (I might not even be alive then) and with the way the United States is taking its international responsibilities there is a larger setting that this could happen and there is no way I can type this blog whilst ‘enjoying’ sunshine at 2354 rads. I have medical evidence of that (read: Google Scholar)

So you all have a great day and consider limiting your exposure to LinkedIn, it will become the next hotspot for influencers and BS artists alike. 

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March 29, 2026 · 05:44

The Bull what?

I was confronted with an Oracle article this morning, it came with the complements of the Insider Monkey (at https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/oracles-orcl-backlog-drives-its-bull-thesis-according-to-analysts-1726682/). The article ‘Oracle’s (ORCL) Backlog Drives Its Bull Thesis According To Analysts’ which might be a conundrum, so lets take a look. We are given “The major factors in the firm’s bullish thesis on ORCL are its massive backlog and its ability to cater to increasing AI investments in the US. Oracle has a remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $553 billion, which offers good visibility into the company’s future earnings.” I would go with that a backlog gives stock and future of a company value, but that might be an oversimplification. And $553,000,000,000 is nothing to sneer at. It is seemingly more than the overall business that several nations have and in this case it is more then Norway gets on an annual level. So I would go with that, but what is a bullish thesis? 

Well, in short “A bull thesis is a structured argument supporting the belief that a specific stock, sector, or the overall market will rise in value, driven by positive catalysts like strong earnings, innovation, or economic expansion. It focuses on growth potential, such as AI-driven productivity, high revenue backlogs, or increased market share.” (Source: Simply Wall Street).

So I had it correct the first time over (a few days ago). There was nothing new under the hot sun, but the next bit ‘surprised’ me a bit. It was “The analyst also pointed out that a major risk in the bull thesis is the customer concentration. A large part of this backlog comes from OpenAI. OpenAI intends to invest a total of $600 billion in computing power by 2030. Previously, in October, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the company could spend up to $1.4 trillion on infrastructure by 2033. One month ago, BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski commented on how this particular risk is now reducing for Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL):” So in short, most of the backlog comes from OpenAI, if OpenAI fails (not a weird thought) Oracle stumbles as would be the case, so the backlog is due to mostly one customer and that is a rusk. How big a risk remains to be seen. The people wanting OpenAI to succeed are numerous and ‘THEY’ would be reducing the risk like the metal dealer reducing the risk of riveting and downplaying potential dangers. This went well before the Titanic saw the shores of the ocean (bottom of the sea), but what happens afterwards? Now, riveting is largely supported, there are whole fleets still out there based on riveting. But what happens when the next big thing comes (like welding), so that is where we are right now. But on the horizon we see Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek and something called Cohere. I believe Oracle is in a good space as whatever comes next will require a system that deal with data and I believe that the only competitor here is Snowflake. As such yes, there is a risk to (what some call) the Bull thesis, but the risk is seemingly small as nothing can match Oracle and Snowflake can only partially cover Oracle (as I see it) and I have some reservations on BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski as BNP Paribas and OpenAI have a multifaceted relationship involving financial analysis, infrastructure, and competition within the AI landscape and this article dos not bare this out. But in that setting we also fail to see the setting that ‘SoftBank Secures $40 Billion Loan to Fund $30 Billion OpenAI Investment’ (source: TradingView) this matters as there is a backlog and they still need loans/investment funds? And the second setting is given to us (at https://www.nssmag.com/en/lifestyle/44761/sora-openai-shutdown) where we see ‘Understanding OpenAI’s U-turn on Sora’ where we see “The development team of Sora, the artificial intelligence software by OpenAI that allowed users to generate realistic videos from a simple prompt, recently announced the shutdown of the app. It is a sudden and highly significant change, one that is expected to produce notable effects in the technology and entertainment sectors, with repercussions that could extend well beyond the U.S. market. The shutdown of Sora is not relevant only for the company led by Sam Altman, but also for other players active in the field of generative AI applied to video production. Google, for instance, now finds itself in an advantageous position in this area, with the concrete possibility of consolidating its leadership in the generation of realistic AI-based videos – thanks to its tool Veo.” So some will see this as a boost to Google (DeepMind) but this happens before these tracks became financially viable (read: paying off) and these elements will create some sort of minor shockwave. The problem is that 3-4 shockwaves can create a massive customer turnover (like towards a competitor) and even if it doesn’t ‘damage’ Oracle, it might hurt prospects in that near future. Consider that this backlog of $553 billion reduces it to a mere $125,000,000,000 Still a large number, but that is when it starts raining men on Wall Street (aka: watch out below).  All elements overlooked in Insider Monkey and the non-Chinese media is not too bitty in the DeepSeek settings. So we are mostly unaware how their next version of its engine is. All elements that will influence the view on Oracle. I still have faith that Oracle will pull through successfully, but these pesky investors are at present more jittery than a room full of roaches as you turn on the lights. It might not be the best setting for a long term ‘understanding’ and that is something Oracle has to deal with. 

Have a great day, I am now 120 minutes from breakfast, although if I was in Vancouver I could enjoy another lunch in the Nightingale like a Cache Creek Beef Tartare, yummy.

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November 24, 2025 · 20:46

The call of reality

That is what seems to be happening. The first one was a simple message that Oracle is doom headed according to Wall Street (I don’t agree with that), but it made me take another look and to make it simpler I will look at the articles chronologically. 

The first one was the Wall Street Journal (4 days ago), with ‘Oracle Was an AI Darling on Wall Street. Then Reality Set In’ (at https://www.wsj.com/tech/oracle-was-an-ai-darling-on-wall-street-then-reality-set-in-0d173758) with “Shares have lost gains from a September AI-fueled pop, and the company’s debt load is growing” with the added “Investors nervous about the scale of capital that technology companies are plowing into artificial-intelligence infrastructure rattled stocks this week. Oracle has been one of the companies hardest hit” but here is the larger setting. As I see it, these stocks are manipulated by others, whomever they are Hedge funds and their influencers and other parties calling for doom all whilst the setting of the AI bubble are exploiters by unknown gratifiers of self. I know that this sounds ominous and non specific, but there is no way most of us (including people with a much higher degree of economic knowledge than I will ever have) And the stage of bubble endearing is out there (especially in Wall Street) then 14 hours ago we get ‘Oracle (ORCL): Evaluating Valuation After $30B AI Cloud Win and Rising Credit Risk Concerns’ (at https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nyse-orcl/oracle/news/oracle-orcl-evaluating-valuation-after-30b-ai-cloud-win-and/amp) where we see “Recent headlines have only amplified the spotlight on Oracle’s cloud ambitions, but the past few months have been rocky for its share price. After a surge tied to AI-driven optimism, Oracle’s 1-month share price return of -29.9% and a year-to-date gain of 19.7% tell the story: momentum has faded sharply in the near term. However, the 1-year total shareholder return still sits at 4.4% and its five-year total return remains a standout at nearly 269%. This combination of volatility and long-term outperformance reflects a market grappling with Oracle’s rapid strategic shift, balance sheet risks, and execution on new contracts.” I am not debating the numbers, but no one is looking to the technology behind this. As I see it places like Snowflake and Oracle have the best technology for these DML and LLM solutions (OK, there are a few more) and for now, whomever has the best technology will survive the bubble and whomever is betting on that AI bubble going their way needs Oracle at the very least and not in a weakened state, but that is merely my point of view. So last we get the Motley Fool a mere 7 hours ago giving us ‘Billionaire David Tepper Dumped Appaloosa’s Stake in Oracle and Is Piling Into a Sector That Wall Street Thinks Will Outperform’ (at https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/11/23/billionaire-david-tepper-dumped-appaloosas-stake-i/) we see “Billionaire David Tepper’s track record in the stock market is nothing short of remarkable. According to CNBC, the current owner of the Carolina Panthers pro football team launched his hedge fund Appaloosa Management in 1993 and generated annual returns of at least 25% for decades. Today, Tepper still runs Appaloosa, but it is now a family office, where he manages his own wealth.” Now we get the crazy stuff (this usually happens when I speculate) So this gives us a person like David Tepper who might like to exploit Oracle to make it seem more volatile and exploit a shortening of options to make himself (a lot) richer. And when clever people become self managing, they tend to listen to their darker nature. Now I could be all wrong, but when Wall Street is going after one of the most innovative and secure companies on the planet just to satisfy the greed of Wall Street, I get to become a little agitated. So could it all be that Oracle was drawn into the ‘fab’ and lost it? No, they clearly stated that there would be little return until 2028, a decent prognosis and with the proper settings of DML and LLM finding better and profitable ways by 2027 to find revenue making streams is a decent target to have and it is seemingly an achievable one. In the meantime IBM can figure out (evolve) their shallow circuits and start working on their trinary operating system. I have no idea where they are at present, but the idea of this getting ready for a 2040 release is not out of the question. In the meantime Oracle can fill the void for millions of corporations that already have data, warehouses and form settings. Another are plenty of other providers of data systems.

So when we are given “The tech company Oracle is not one of the “Magnificent Seven,” but it has emerged as a strong beneficiary of artificial intelligence (AI), thanks to its specialized data centers that contain huge clusters of graphics processing units (GPUs) to train large language models (LLMs) that power AI.

In September, the company reported strong earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2026, along with blowout guidance. Remaining performance obligations increased 359% year over year to $455 billion, as it signed data center agreements with major hyperscalers, including OpenAI.”

So whilst we see “Oracle is not one of the “Magnificent Seven,” but it has emerged as a strong beneficiary of artificial intelligence (AI)” we need to take a different look at this. Oracle was never a strong beneficiary of AI, it was a strong vendor with data technologies and AI is about data and in all of this, someone is ‘fitting’ Oracle into a stage that everyone just blatantly accepts without asking too many questions (example the Media). With the additional “to train large language models (LLMs) that power AI”, the hidden gem is in the second statement. AI and LLM are not the same, You only partially train real AI, this is different and those ‘magnificent seven’ want you to look away from that. So, when was the last time that you actually read that AI does not yet exist? That is the created bubble and players like Oracle are indifferent to this, unless you spike the game. It has stocks, it has options and someone is turning influencers to their own use of greed. And I object to this, Oracle has proven itself for decades, longer than players like Microsoft and Google. So when we see ‘Buying the sector that Wall Street is bullish on’ we see another hidden setting. The bullishness of Wall Street. Do you think they don’t know that AI is a non-existing setting? So why go after the one technology that will make data work? That setting is centre in all this and I object those who go after Oracle. So when you answer the call of reality consider who is giving you the AI setting and who is giving you the DML/LLM stage of a data solution that can help your company.

Have a great day we are seemingly all on Monday at present. 

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November 23, 2025 · 10:29

Driving the herds

OK, I am over my anger spat from yesterday (still growling though) and in other news I noticed that Grok (Musk’s baby) cannot truly deal with multidimensional viewpoints, which is good to know. But today I tried to focus on Oracle. You know whatever AI bubble will hit us (and it will) Oracle shouldn’t be as affected as some of the Data vendors who claim that they have the golden AI child in their crib (a good term to use a month before Christmas). I get that some people are ‘sensitive’ to doom speakers we see all over the internet and some will dump whatever they have to ‘secure’ what they have, but the setting of those doom speakers is to align THEIR alleged profit needs to others dumping their future. I do not agree. You see Oracle, Snowflake and a few others offer services and they are captured by others. Snowflake has a data setting that can be used whether AI comes or not, whether people need it or not. And they will be hurt when the firms go ‘belly up’ because it will count as lost revenue. But that is all it is, lost revenue. And yes both will be hurting when the AI bubble comes crashing down on all of us. But the stage that we see is that they will skate off the dust (in one case snow) and that is the larger picture. So I took a look at Oracle and behold on Simple Wall Street we get ‘Oracle (ORCL) Is Down 10.8% After Securing $30 Billion Annual Cloud Deal – Has The Bull Case Changed?’ (At https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nyse-orcl/oracle/news/oracle-orcl-is-down-108-after-securing-30-billion-annual-clo) With these sub-line points:

  • Oracle recently announced a major cloud services contract worth US$30 billion annually, set to begin generating revenue in fiscal 2028 and nearly tripling the size of its existing cloud infrastructure business.
  • This deal offers Oracle significantly greater long-term growth visibility and serves as a major endorsement of the company’s aggressive cloud and artificial intelligence strategy, even as investors remain focused on rising debt and credit risks.
  • We’ll examine how this multi-billion-dollar cloud contract could reshape Oracle’s investment narrative, particularly given its bold AI infrastructure expansion.

So they triple their ‘business’ and they lose 10.8%? It leads to questions. As I personally see it, Wall Street is trying to insulate themselves from the bubble that other (mostly) software vendors bring to the table. And Simply Wall Street gives us “To believe in Oracle as a shareholder right now is to trust in its transformation into a major provider of cloud and AI infrastructure to sustain growth, despite high debt and reliance on major AI customers. The recent announcement of a US$30 billion annual cloud contract brings welcome long-term visibility, but it does not change the near-term risk: heavy capital spending and dependence on sustained AI demand from a small set of large clients remain the central issues for the stock.” And I can get behind that train of thought, although I think that Oracle and a few others are decently protected from that setting. No matter how the non existent AI goes, DML needs data and data needs secure and reliable storage. So in comes Oracle in plenty of these places and they do their job. If 90% business goes boom, they will already have collected on these service terms for that year at least, 3-5 years if they were clever. So no biggy, Collect on 3-5 years is collected revenue, even if that firm goes bust after 30 days, they might get over it (not really). 

And then we get two parts “Oracle Health’s next-generation EHR earning ONC Health IT certification stands out. This development showcases Oracle’s commitment to embedding AI into essential enterprise applications, which supports a key catalyst: broadening the addressable market and stickiness of its cloud offerings as adoption grows across sectors, particularly healthcare. In contrast, investors should be aware that the scale of Oracle’s capital commitment brings risks that could magnify if…” OK, I am on board with these settings. I kinda disagree, but then I lack economic degrees and a few people I do know will completely see this part. You see, I personally see “Oracle’s commitment to embedding AI into essential enterprise applications” as a plus all across the board. Even if I do believe that AI doesn’t exist, the data will be coming and when it is ironed out, Oracle was ready from the get go (when they translate their solutions to a trinary setting) and I do get (but personally disagree) with “the scale of Oracle’s capital commitment brings risks that could magnify if”. Yes, there is risk but as I see it Oracle brings a solution that is applicable to this frontier, even if it cannot be used to its full potential at present. So there is a risk, but when these vendors pay 5 years upfront, it becomes instant profit at no use of their clouds. You get a cloud with a population of 15 million, but it is inhabited by 1.5 million. As such they have a decade of resources to spare. I know that things are not that simple and there is more, but what I am trying to say is that there is a level of protection that some have and many will not. Oracle is on the good side of that equation (as is Snowflake, Azure, iCloud, Google Gemini and whatever IBM has, oh, and the chips of nVidia are also decently safe until we know how Huawei is doing. 

And the setting we are also given “Oracle’s outlook forecasts $99.5 billion in revenue and $25.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on annual revenue growth of 20.1% and an earnings increase of $12.9 billion from current earnings of $12.4 billion” matters as Oracle is predicting that revenue comes calling in 2028, so anyone trying to dump their stock now is as stupid as they can be. They are telling their shareholders that for now revenue is thimble sized, but after 2028 which is basically 24 months away, the big guns come calling and the revenue pie is being shared with its shareholders. So you do need brass balls to do this and you should not do this with your savings, that is where hedge funds come in, but the view is realistic. The other day I saw Snowflake use DML in the most innovative way (one of their speakers) showed me a new lost and found application and it was groundbreaking. Considering the amounts of lost and found is out there at airports and bus stations, they showed me how a setting of a month was reduced to a 10 minute solution. As I saw it, places like Dubai, London and Abu Dhabi airport could make is beneficial for their 90 million passengers is almost unheard of and I am merely mentioning three of dozens upon dozens of needy customers all over the world. A direct consequence of ‘AI’ particulars (I still think it is DML with LLM) but no matter the label, it is directly applicable to whomever has such a setting and whilst we see the stage of ‘most usage fails in its first instance’ this is not one of them and as such in those places Oracle/Snowflake is a direct win. A simple setting that has groundbreaking impact. So where is the risk there? I know places have risks, but to see this simple application work shows that some are out there showing the good fight on an achievable setting and no IP was trained upon and no class actions are to follow. I call that a clear win.

So, before you sell your stock in Oracle like a little girl, consider what you have bought and consider who wants you to sell, and why, because they are not telling you this for your sake, they have their own sake. I am not telling you to sell anything. I am merely telling you to consider what you bought and what actual risks you are running if you sell before 2029. It is that simple.

Have a great day (yes Americans too, I was angry yesterday), These bastards in Vancouver and Toronto are still enjoying their Saturday. 

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