Tag Archives: vulture investors

Wolves or Chihuahuas?

I am acting on a feeling, this happens. But the difference is that I have no economic sense (not really), It comes to a ground setting that I can get rich because I spend ;less than I earn, but not fast enough to use tax benefits as leverage to make a larger offset. I don’t know the laws on this and it doesn’t worry me. But I know data, I’ve seen it rustle for the better part of half a century and I noticed today that things are off. I have written about Oracle before, the last time just a day ago. But something seems to have changed. I wrote about vulture investors, but there that is 2-3 years away. And now I see that Oracle is at the centre of way too much press and it is diverse. It is like seeing the set up of a play that some are making and they need to press to do some of the waves and groundwork. That is what I feel, but am I right? The last one (that I think I saw) was ‘Alphabet vs. Oracle: Which Is the Better AI Stock to Own for the Next 5 Years?’ (Yahoo Finance), the article is seemingly nice, but there is an undertone in all this. First of all, why even make the comparison? They have overlapping settings in different directions and I get that you have to make a choice, but that tends to be a personal one. I am such a coward that I would try to go 50-50 on them, they are both sound good and they make an excellent setting for my portfolio. Then we also get ‘Oracle Heavily Shorted, Stock Halved—Contrarian Opportunity?’ And ‘Oracle’s $10,000 Lesson: A 38% Plunge in 12 Months Despite Record AI Backlog’ followed by ‘Oracle Stock Falls 3.8% as $40 Billion Funding Plan Tests AI Backlog’ and ‘Project Jupiter: Gas Pipeline Delay Threatens Oracle’s $165 Billion New Mexico AI Data Center’ (less than an hour ago) as I see it, it started with ‘Oracle junk bond fears, debt surge sound alarms for investors’ 23 hours ago. There are always setting that happen at the same time, but to see 6 pages of headlines in the last 24 hours and diverse, it is not that they all talk about 1 thing. It comes across that the attacks on Oracle are beginning and everyone wants to take a bite out of that data behemoth. That is what it feels like to me, someone is gunning for Oracle and I have no idea who, but someone knows. 

The problem for me is that it sounds like the wolves are coming and they might merely be chihuahuas making noises. The setting is that I am not economically savvy enough to make the distinction (I am no Mark Carney after all), but the data that I see gives me the feeling that they are wolves setting up for a yummy clambake and they are setting the table. This is the groundwork I expected to see starting around December 2027, not in the last 24 hours. I get that someone will make the point that the world never sleeps and that business is always on the menu, I get that, but to start carving into a behemoth like this, before that ‘carcass’ is well and ready means that some are showing their hands and whilst this might be a prelude to an actual attack, which means that someone is seeing the soft spot at Oracle, but is that really the case? I lack the economic savvy that I need for this. I can see the data, but that still leaves for a lot of time, these steps give me that Oracle is out of time, or at least that is the premise I notice and that is the problem. Are these chihuahuas that want to make nose to get noticed or are the wolves famished and they need (read: desire) a proper non vegetarian meal? I it just the distance that I fail to see, or is it the noise I hear and I cannot tell the difference? That is the lack of economy in me and I get that, but the data, the data is out there and I surely hope that they are merely chihuahuas, Oracle can stomp on them and shoo them towards a long walk on a short pier, but in the other case, is are we watching the prelude to boardroom tables setting up a circle setting to fight off the wolves? My data insight tells me it is too soon for that, but it requires economic savvy to tell that difference. The data is not there and whilst Oracle has a lot more data insight then I do (never be afraid to honor the biggest dog in the game), I feel that there is rustling in the shrubberies and it is time to differentiate between chihuahuas and wolves. It is not a simple difference because you top on one and shooting of the others (the rest will take a step back). One is a simple miscommunication the other  requires a license, even if it is self defence, so as I see it Oracle better get ready for whatever they plan.

The question is, what do you do when the wolves come calling early? Have a great Sunday, not in Toronto and Vancouver though, for them it is still Caturday and they are hugging their tigers (as men do).

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Science

Worries

That is what I felt. Computing, a media brand of The Channel Company, is a trusted source for end-user IT news, analysis and insight around the world gave me news that gave me a few thoughts. The article ‘Oracle plans more job cuts as AI bill rises’ left me with worries. If this is the setting for Oracle, what more can go bust in the night? I personally don’t care about these grocery stores like Microsoft, they made their own bed. But “An internal document seen by Business Insider says some teams could see double-digit percentage reductions in their workforce. Managers have reportedly been asked to identify employees whose jobs could be cut, with the aim of reducing payroll by the start of Oracle’s second quarter on 1st September.” Gives me pause for worries. You see, I have worked a lifetime on technical support and customer care and I have always had my worries about this entire spending against these rising “AI bills”, first of all AI doesn’t exist. No matter what you call it, it is not AI, it is mere DML/LLM settings and they are part of an AI, but it is not AI and whilst everyone is spending the house, the fireplace and the kitchen sink, it is a moot setting. It is seen in the fact that AI (now called true AI) is over a decade away and how many firms will remain as they are all hollowing out into what some call an empty egg shell? I for one had the most hope towards IBM and Oracle, IBM is the closest in hardware (the entire Quantum processor, shallow circuits) settings, and merely (as I personally see it) a lacking trinary operating system and what I call an Epsilon processor, like the old days had an Coprocessor (like the 80387, a dedicated hardware math coprocessor) and in my mind the Epsilon processor will be the AI (co)processor, dealing with trinary data settings. It might not be the correct setting, but this is what I personally believe. As such I still believe we are close to two decades away from all of this, but there is no way that these spending can go on for another 2-3 years. These firms are destined to lose whatever advantage they had and are ready to be fed to vulture investors, aggressive financiers who buy distressed assets and as I see it, Oracle, Microsoft, AWS and several others will become massively distressed in 2-3 years, especially as they are hollowing out their company. It is my personal believe that these vulture investors are chipping at the bits to take control of these firm. Especially when you see “Oracle’s workforce fell by about 21,000 people, or 13%, during its financial year ending on 31st May, according to a recent company filing. The company currently employs about 141,000 people.” Consider what Oracle brings to the table, how many people could they sacrifice before the lid of that box becomes too shaky to survive? I have no idea, because I am not in the know about Oracle, I know people there, but that is as far as it goes. So when I read “Oracle said the deployment of AI technologies across its operations had already resulted in reductions to its workforce and could lead to further cuts.” As well as “Oracle is investing heavily to expand its cloud infrastructure as demand for computing power used to develop and run AI systems surges. Its capital spending reached about $55.7 billion in the 2026 financial year, up sharply from $21.2 billion a year earlier, as it accelerated construction of datacentres and purchases of equipment. The scale of that investment has increased pressure on the company’s finances. Oracle recorded an operating cash shortfall of about $23.7 billion during the year and raised roughly $43 billion through debt. It is also expected to raise a further $40 billion, alongside about $5 billion in equity.” This leads us to “S&P Global Ratings cut Oracle’s long-term credit rating to BBB-, one level above junk status, citing rising debt and sharply negative cash flow. Despite the financial pressure, Oracle’s latest results showed strong demand. Revenue increased by 17% in its latest financial year, while its cloud infrastructure business grew by 77%. The company’s chairman, Larry Ellison, has previously played down concerns that AI could undermine established software firms, saying the so-called “SaaSpocalypse” would be a problem for other companies rather than Oracle.” I am the last one to spell doom over any company (except Microsoft), but these settings leaves doubts over the future of Oracle. And there is the setting that I could be wrong with the trinary approach and my feelings on the matter are fluidic at best, but in that setting IBM has the highest chance of success, and I believe that it will happen with Oracle data. But that is my personal feelings in the matter. Still the article in  Computing (at https://www.computing.co.uk/news/2026/ai/oracle-plans-more-job-cuts-as-ai-bill-rises) leaves me with worries for Oracle, if 13% was already made redundant and another 11% might come, what happens when almost 25% is gone? What happens to training, support, services? I reckon that the sales people are all in it for themselves (as commercially driven entities are) but at some point they see that this cannot continue and as I see it, it will leave a place like Oracle at the mercy of vulture investors. 

I understand I could be wrong in a few ways, but consider what AI is supposed to be and it is not. We see all these ‘BS directives of expert AI’ that got lose (all whilst there is no real AI), it hacked its way into place X and out of sandbox Y, which I see as evidence that it is not really AI, it is a Machine Learning application (with optional LLM) that is programmed and that is what some are hiding, because all these class actions will suddenly have new fuel, programmers will be shown to the media, telling the world what they programmed and these firms, none of them will survive the costs of these cases. Some give us numbers that indicate that AI-related investor fraud and disclosure lawsuits spiked sharply, accounting for over $385 billion in measured Disclosure Dollar Losses in early 2026 alone, driving massive defense and litigation overhead and as far as I can tell the total costs for 2026 gets to surpass $400 billion, now consider that the ‘gig is up’ as some say and the class actions will rise to new heights. I predicted as such a few times, going back to February 19th 2026, and as I see it, there is more to come and these firms will be protective of whatever their coffers have, because at this pace, their revenue will collapse when some settings come to pass and they have hollowed out their companies. They did it themselves and whilst I don’t know the specifics, I saw this as a really bad idea, no matter what the influx tended to be, I served in customer care and technical support going all the way back to 1985, I have seen it all before and when these companies short change on training, support, and services it tends to go downhill fast. But that might merely be me. So how to see this article? I reckon that it is a wake up call. I am not of the mind that I am changing my mind about certain matters, but I am weary that there is a larger danger ahead of us all and it is the dangers of weakened firms now becoming the target of vulture investors within the next 3 years. Will it happen? I have no idea and I didn’t think of these vulture investors initially, but that is the first weakness that these firms face when they weaken themselves to this degree. Will it happen? I guess so as greed goes where payments are found and most of us enabled it. We did so by ‘heralding’ “The current “golden age of AI” refers to the mid-2020s boom driven by generative models, multimodal transformers, and massive computational scaling that has transformed enterprise productivity, robotics, and creative industries.” So you tell me, what golden age? Doesn’t such a golden age come with large revenues all over the board? So far we are drowned by articles on class actions, costings that make firms get rid of thousands of workers. What golden age I ask you.

So, this article is highly speculative, I get that but is it therefor wrong and not happening? Too much of these events are now becoming fact, except the revenue from AI, that is still illusive all over the board. Except for a few companies but they are paying each other for data centres, so is it really revenue or an exercise in funny money. Have a great day today.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Science