That was the first thing that hit me when I was introduced to the BBC article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn08ep6d5ndo) named ‘US home buyers ‘frozen’ as sales slump over Iran war fears’ a few hours ago. You see, what it says here is not a lie, it is incomplete. We are given “The US housing market is struggling as the impact of higher mortgage rates, fuelled by the US-Israeli war in Iran, begins to bite. Figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed the number of homes sold in March hit their lowest level for nine months, falling by 3.6% from a month earlier.” You see, the population of the United States is starting to figure out that this president will throw them under any truck heading for them, hoping it will slow that truck down. So whilst we see “impact of higher mortgage rates”, which might be true, but there is a whole lot of other factors playing. We see labor statistics giving the media that 178,000 is good and much better then we thought. But in that meantime Oracle sacked 30,000 people and they are not the only one and whilst we partially accept that this is the fuel the AI pressures. Some will realise that AI doesn’t yet exist and that the fallout will be soon. And as Europe is abandoning Microsoft (for plenty of reasons) the setting of data centers when they are not getting filled with data is another setting in that cog. Then there is the Iranian clambake which is not about the clambake, it is about the price of oil, so whilst like the house as presented. Some will see that the heating bill will grow sand in the cogs and whilst the mortgage goes up by factions at a time, the heating bill will take gulps out of your budget and it will drive fuel prices up. So your house in a nice place, it is also miles form the place of work and that is the real driver. So whilst some are in the dark on how many people, drowned on the Titanic (1997, James Cameron) the world will agree that it was a boatload and the specifics are basically made redundant.
So when we are given “following drops in January and February, rates have shot up since the US-Israeli war began. They are increasing on expectations the US central bank could continue to hold interest rates in order to keep inflation under control, dashing hopes of further cuts by the Federal Reserve.” There is no mention that President Trump bashed the hopes of home builders by pissing of Canadian lumber, driving those prices up even further, this gives additional money requirement to houses and which now requires a slightly steeper interest setting. So whilst you want to say that you are happy with the $200K home, the additional $780 on additional mortgage and the additional price of lumber (set to a rough $5125) is not in the budget and it drives the prices up. Now we get oil that was $69 per barrel in 2025, we now see that same barrel going for $98 dollar, almost 50% more expensive, so consider that some claim that by June that price is a plausible $150. So, who can afford to heat their houses at 50% higher energy bills, with the optional 50% raise in a few months. And it is all due to their kind and loving president (I believe his name is Donald Trump).
So whilst the BBC article gives the people in the United States plenty to worry about, the US finance industry has a much tougher time ahead. Because at this rate close to (a speculated) 17% of the housing market will collapse and the people who are in dire need to get rid of their homes will not find any buyers. But I recon that the Finance industry will hold hands and become the new landlords to a massively tough market.
As such, houses are more expensive, fueling houses (electricity and heating) will make them unaffordable and the borrowing ability of the United States goes straight from ground level to basement level 5. So whilst we might give some validity to “Indicators point to “weakening housing demand following a recent jump in mortgage rates and a collapse in consumer confidence”, said Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics. Both are “knock-on effects” of the Iran conflict, he added.” The words given doesn’t make Thomas Ryan clever, perhaps the fact that he is avoiding that all this was due to the American Administration is and the several factors that are ‘ignored’ have nothing to do with Iran, it has everything to do with some narcissistic individual that he was the next Jesus in a nasty line of nobodies. And make no mistake, when the other factors come to play, there is no avoiding the setting of the US administration, because when (not if) the European stability, which requires and absence of Microsoft come knocking. The data centers that have no input will be pushed in to a bad mortgage bank which will then be pushed into receivership. So my next question becomes:
‘Who wants to own a data centre? They are going cheap.’
And I reckon that the silence that follows will be deafening. Only a fool takes on a war at two fronts (Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821) and only the king of fools sets a tariff and bully demand on 15 fronts (Donald Trump, 1946 – who cares). It is a setting that will haunt the United States until at least 2076, but some say that the United States will not survive until then, giving the history of the United States with less then 300 years, a setting of greed and exploitation in plenty of books to reminiscence over.
But then, I could be wrong. Do you think I am wrong, or are the factors you see starting to make sense and when that happens where will you place the media in all this. A mere reporting entity or a bleeding effect of greed and digital dollars?
Have a great day.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 