Tag Archives: US

Trillion dollar Musk

I got some questions thrown at me in the last few days, they were pretty much all about me over valuing Elon Musk, but am I? I stated before that in the next 3-4 years his value will increase to roughly $1.2 trillion dollars, or in a less shorthand version $1,200,000,000,000, yes that is where he is heading and he already has most of the IP in his possession to do so. The second part I get is what do I get out of it. Nothing, well, like most I would like a 3.75% commission on the increase with a maximum of €5 B (a man is allowed to dream) and it would amount to less than one percent of his gain, I am not overly filled with confidence I will see a penny, but his increase is almost set in stone. 

Why set in stone?
The UK (via the Guardian) inform us of “Britain’s electricity will be in short supply over the next few days after a string of unplanned power plant outages and unusually low wind speeds this week”, the UK has an increasing need for Scandinavian power and soon it cannot be met. I reckon that in the next 2-3 years that shortage will be close to systemic all over the EU.

Why?
Consider most houses and apartments. Only a decade ago our power needs were not that high, now many houses have more than one gaming console. The fridges are 200%-400% in size, PC’s that had a 300 watt power supply now has a 600-1200 watt supply, if it was one apartment it was a small issue, but this is now covering millions of places all over Europe and millions op places in the US. I reckon that in 3 years the political screaming starts for Carbon Neutral houses and apartments, and Elon Musk has the battery. It is more than the battery, the larger need for an individual solar and wind power base will increase, you see in 2-3 years the power outages will start to really hit, so as infrastructure (like hospitals) will need protection, houses will see power cost go through the roof and political parties will all unite to vie for subsidies on a larger scale and Elon Musk has the larger base of goods. 

Yet he cannot do it alone, DC appliances, like lights is easy and not the larger bulk, yet the fridges, the freezers, the water boilers and heaters, they take up a much larger part and new houses will all be outfitted with carbon neutral settings, as the houses has either via new tiles based on recycled plastic, with the high end having solar cells in the tiles, we will see a growth setting where people have a cell foundation and a growing amount of tiles with solar cells, some will also have wind fans, all generating the house power, all captured in the Musk battery. It will grow slowly, the harder hit area’s first, but it will grow and at some point there will be a near exponential growth for a little while. Germany and France (rural parts) are the most likely area’s, the UK and Belgium. But it will grow into the US as well. Even as the US seems to hide behind “A report by the US Department of Energy site weather-related power outages as the leading cause of power outages in the United States. The report and the Pew research both also acknowledge an aging infrastructure as part of the problem. Some of the US power grid dates back to the earliest onset of electricity”, the actual problem is near systemic, power needs have grown well over 10% annually in the last 5-10 years. Computers, AC systems, larger fridges and the list goes on. TV’s less so, yet in many ig not most households, from 11 Mega Watt a month, we see that many houses are now on 1100-1800 Watt per hour for a larger part of the day, each day and that is starting to add up, as such when the Musk Battery becomes the stretch of time that nations need his value goes through the roof and in that the $1.2T might be a conservative cautious number at present. It is a lot depending on the larger power needs that the EU, UK and US are staging, but the growing need cannot be hidden, even as we see that the weather is ‘apparently’ the larger cause as some claim it, it is not the only cause and when the people see the musk solution as a larger stage for resolving brown out damage, the people will push for that solution as well. So when the GeGaLo Index can no longer supply to the needs the buyers want it, energy prices will quite literally go through the roof and the Musk battery is only one element but it is his IP and it is for too many a solution. 

That is what will soon set the beginning of Elon Musk becoming the first trillionaire, and optionally over time it will make him the first multi trillionaire. I reckon that bad boy Billy Gates never considered being passed to this degree (or would that be bing passed), but I reckon that he will not care. 

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Ignoring the dangers

We all do the at times, we ignore or minimise the dangers we are facing, some do it so the they can get their own needs filled and others again do it for what they call ‘the bigger picture’. So as Al Jazeera showed us ‘Iran blasts ‘hate-mongering’ in Saudi king’s comments’, I decided to take a quick gander in the Google Search, When seeking ‘Iran Saudi Arabia’ in the news, the western press was abundantly absent on the matter, yet the BBC did gif us 4 days ago ‘US election: Gulf Arab leaders face new reality after Biden victory’, they seemingly all have other ‘important’ news to give us. 

Yet the Al Jazeera article is more important than you think. When we consider the BBC ‘Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile ’10 times limit’’, it is the first of a lot of markers, it is the setting for more, when we consider the constant interference from Iran into Yemen, with the Houthi forces ‘US warns of possible Houthi missile strikes on Saudi capital’, the issue here is that the missiles and drones cannot be made in Yemen, the infrastructure is not there, as such only Iran could have smuggled them and it seems that the so called Western Navy has so far been unable to stop anything. Now that Houthi forces are deliberately targeting civilian population centres the stage is set in other ways too, Saudi Arabia has little choice but to hit back. So when we see “US officials warned of possible Houthi missile strikes on Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, after the kingdom reported it intercepted several armed drones and missiles fired by the rebel group in Yemen”, even as we get the watered down ‘US special representative on Iran, checks what Saudi officials claimed were Iran-made Houthi missiles and drones intercepted over Saudi territory last year’, we see Brian Hook on stage, but the International media remains in denial (through silence), on the simple fact that the Houthi forces cannot manufacture these missiles, they have a supplier named Iran and too many of these Iranian events go unnoticed by the western media steering clear of it. So when we are treated to “The kingdom stresses the dangers of Iran’s regional project, its interference in other countries, its fostering of terrorism, its fanning the flames of sectarianism and calls for a decisive stance from the international community against Iran that guarantees a drastic handling of its efforts to obtain weapons of mass destruction and develop its ballistic missiles programme”, we see more than a truth,. We see a setting stage where we must act now, or it will be too late. Iran is too careless with what it has and it is willing to arm anyone willing to fire on either Saudi Arabia or Israel. When that happens we have a stage that can no longer be turned. So the tactic seems clear as Iran gives us “Iran criticises Saudi monarch urging global action against Tehran, calling for unity among Muslim nations”, yet it is the Iranian actions that require actions. The non actions, when it is too late these so called ‘world leaders’ in the EU and the USA will have to sit back and remain silent. They had their option but their ego’s are too consumed with some action plan that will never work in Iran over the essential need to call Iran to attention. 

We have ignored the stage for too long and there aren’t many moves left, the move we make when it is too late will seal the deal where no-one in Saudi Arabia will be willing to take calls from anyone in the EU or the US, is that what we truly want? Diplomats have been played with and kept on an Iranian leash for well over 5 years and it is time to learn our lesson, Iran will never be a civil voice in any of this. How is the for ignoring the dangers? How does any of the actions from the EU and the US even make sense in all this, it is time to act, we played for too long with the brazen incriminations and actions by Iran. So whilst the Arab News gives us ‘Iran and Turkey ‘losers’ in emerging new Middle East order, say analysts’ what do you think that people in Turkey and Iran will do with their overinflated ego’s? Do you think they play nice? 

As such when Alex Vatanka, senior fellow and director of the Iran program at The Middle East Institute gives us “I see Iran as a loser in the sense of losing out geopolitically, ideologically and politically at home”, how do you expect Iran to react? They will not care on the lives of Houthi or Saudi forces, they merely want to look important and they are willing to send all the wrong toys to Yemen. His majesty King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud is correct, the problem is not what he is saying, it is what the EU and the US are not willing to listen to and that is the larger game, ego. Ego in the people who think the they can till matter still look important all whilst Iran has decided not to listen. I reckon an enriched Uranium stockpile of 1,000% of what was allowed is sufficient evidence, as are the Iranian missiles fired on Saudi Arabia from Yemen. Either is enough, but for the global players to ignore two pieces of evidence? I will let you decide on how dangerous the game with Iran has become.

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The call was made

OK, I have been outspoken on more than one occasion, and as such, I also feel partially connected to make the call when it was made. And the call was made towards President-elect Biden. Even as a republican, I have no issue with this, this is how it is, the votes decide. It is not over yet, team Trump will trump (or rump) what is can, and the numbers are there for automated recounts. Arizona, Biden won by 0.3%, a difference of less than 12,000. Georgia has Biden by 0.3% and that amounts to 14,000 votes. I do not believe that these numbers are overcome and a win of 1 vote is all President elect Biden will need, then there is Wisconsin where Biden won, there is no automatic recount, but team Trump might push for it, they need to overcome 20,610 which amounts to 0.7%. It is a really tall order to overthrow all three and not a real realistic one at that, but that was the game and President-elect Biden seemingly won.

After 10 days of counting the calls are officially made (perhaps pre-official), which was the game. We can wait for the election lawyers to step in, but the numbers are too large to overcome, There is no way the this many ballots are invalid, they can look, but I am not holding my breath on that, yet for me, there is a sunny side (see previous blog), the scare they gave Saudi-Arabia will have larger consequences and with 5G operational there, the response is not going to be a happy one for American entrepreneurs, not when Chinese developers have a much larger app development pol to look at with options in Egypt as well, with nearly 100 million people, it is a stage China really wants and the talks we see between Egypt and Saudi Arabia and given with ‘Vodafone may reconsider price of Egypt sale to Saudi Telecom’ (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/1733206/business-economy) two months ago, were already in the pipeline. I warned for this situation and it seems the Saudi Arabia sees the technology light, pushing out not merely Vodafone, but the sale to Saudi Telecom (STC) is set to $2.4B, which is almost a steal at twice the price. You see, with the Saudi 5G (thanks to Huawei) a lot more services will soon opt via Saudi Arabia and that setting will grow over the next 2 years. A setting the EU and the US have never faced before, and would you believe it, team president-elect has not made friends in the KSA, they can reassess all they want, but the market shares are moving away from those who had it, as will that linked data and Huawei is sitting on the side smirking and nodding in appreciation. What I predicted in my blogs as early s 2018 is now coming to pass, soon Apple and Google want their data centres to run larger services and that is when the US will lose even more. Decentralisation is the worst the could happen here and the timing is even less inviting to the US. In 2019 we saw ‘Google still pursuing Saudi Arabian data centers’, with Egypt in the setting their need increases dramatically, and what else will Vodafail lose? I doubt it is merely Egypt. Last week we were given ‘Vodafone Idea’s inadequate network investments to further accelerate subscriber loss: Analysts’, a stage the might not aid the KSA too much, but the losses will go somewhere and whatever partnership comes from there, in the end Huawei will profit, so there goes the setting we hd towards a setting the US never wanted in the first place and as we see it, we will also see that the EU will need to make a call, especially as they lose out again and again. What path they will walk is still unknown, but it seems decently clear that the path they are on now tends to lead towards self-destruction, the is seen in the Euro reporter, who gives us ‘EU and member states risk a possible WTO challenge for unfair actions against Huawei’ a mere two days ago. Even though it is not on the same setting I had, theirs will do jut as well. As we see: “US actions against Huawei based mainly on its Chinese origins simply will not stand up to a legal challenge before the World Trade Organization. This is because of international treaty obligations that Romania, Poland and Sweden as both EU Member States and WTO members are all bound by, precluding them from discriminating against or between the products of another WTO member” is not merely a costly stage, it is the setting the the path (poorly) chosen could cost the EU a lot more than it bargained for.

Even now Saudi Arabia has the fastest 5G network, compared to the US 752% faster, when Egypt is added to this, the stage changes, two nations with willing and tech hungry developers, all with a 2 year advantage over both the EU and the US, the damage they can install by having faster apps and faster infrastructure is going to cost the other two a bundle, perhaps more. Consider that the UK and US are trailing Egypt and the KSA by such a large difference, the mere humiliation of being second to Egypt and Saudi Arabia is just what the flaccid western technologists required, relying on politicians to fight for them, all whilst their technology could not keep up and that damage will continue until at least 2022. It seems to me that this is only the beginning. When the profit fall away, the real damage comes and both players (EU and US) are nowhere near ready to deal with that, as I see it, President-elect Biden inherited a leaky boat names USA, I reckon he better play nice with whatever ally he still has, the game will change and the US no longer has the lead position for choices, that much is I hope been made clear. 

Have a great Friday, especially those calling in sick so the they can test their new PS5.

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As jobs become available

Yup, there is always good news if we know where to look, even as we see a setting where over 50% of all coronavirus cases are in the USA, India and Brazil, we need to think hard of what numbers are not shown. Even as India has well over 3 times the population of the US, there is no way that the numbers add up, with the US having over 9 million cases and India barely passing 8 million, the stage is not completely seen. The population pressure and environment should give India a lot more than the US, so the stage is not clearly seen. I have less doubts (but some) with Brazil, there are over 5 million there and that number seems off (I am emphasising on seems), when we consider the 211 million people there, the pressures in Rio and Sao Paolo, the number seems low, more important, the mortality rate on Brazil merely seems high, in my personal view, either there are a lot more cases, or the mortality rate is skewed, optionally from connected complications. So as more people die, more jobs open up (one would hope). In this stage we could say that every silver lining is the foundation for a new dark cloud.

These numbers are important, especially as the EU goes into a new lockdown. There is the larger issue. We see Spain and France being at 1.2 and 1.3 million. Nothing wrong with that, but a similar setting of populations is seen in Germany with only 510K sick, these numbers do not add up, especially hen you consider that Germany has 83 million, France has 65 million and Spain has 46 million. The German numbers are as I see them off. This matters, because if the numbers are too surreal, the lockdown will merely be a pro forma exercise that does close to nothing in too many places. The problem is that I can see that these lockdowns are the best we can get until there is an actual vaccine, and there is not date on that. One source gives us “On Tuesday, front-runner Pfizer revealed in an earnings call that the first interim analysis in its Phase 3 clinical trial has not yet occurred. That means there hadn’t yet been enough Covid infections among the trial participants to take a first stab at analysing whether the people randomly assigned to receive vaccine were infected at a lower rate than people who were assigned to get a placebo injection”, so consider that phase three is not done and this needs to come and be confirmed before we have a setting where manufacturing can begin. And it is even earlier ‘the first interim analysis in its Phase 3 clinical trial has not yet occurred’, that implies that we get to a stage where any solution would not be here before January 2021, and that is if the second analyses of clinical trials those who precede towards ‘a vaccine is working’ is well over 8 weeks away, making the earliest stage of manufacturing would start on January 2nd, if a solution if found by coming Monday. Are you feeling frisky yet? And all this before the realisation starts that 2 billion doses will take more than a few days. I got (from Vaccine Europe) “On average, it takes between 12-36 months to manufacture a vaccine before it is ready for distribution” and on top of that Sanofi is one source stating that they can make 2.5 million doses a day. This gets us to the 2 billion shots, taking 800 days to make and that is if everything goes right the first time. So there will be a waiting list that is well over 2 years and that is WHEN a vaccine is a reality. Now consider it takes another 12 months before a vaccine is a reality, implying that Covid-19 will be around until January 2024 at the very least. At what stage will we learn that masks are a good idea, and I am happy to set the stage that lockdowns are some proof, but what proof remains the issue, do you still think those Swedes were nuts? 

And in this, consider the news that CNBC gave us in June ‘AstraZeneca is aiming to produce 2 billion doses of a coronavirus vaccine — and it could be ready by September’, do you still think that I was crazy saying that the media is a much larger cause of all the fake news we get?

I am not stating that I know when there is a solution, I am not proclaiming that I have all the answers, yet the numbers are clear and they tell a few stories, and in all those stories we see that some of the reflections offered to us are incorrect, incomplete and dazzled with issues. On the upside, my 5G IP has benefits under Covid (and lockdowns) but they were not designed as such, it is merely an upside to it all. And when we look on, we might see the corporate needs, but they are merely in it to keep their heads above water, and I do not begrudge them that, but a lot of the actions are made on incomplete views and more incomplete data, that much is certain. 

I get it when some state that there is an overreaction, yet some setting (like face masks) are never a bad idea, it makes sense that some lockdown measures are essential, yet how will that ever work in Mumbai, which is 4% the size of Sydney, but has close to 300% of the population, and people under why I doubt the Indian numbers? They test 500 a day, even as they had until recently 100,000 new cases a day. That it’s why the numbers make no sense. And this is merely getting worse, as economic barriers collapse, the setting will continue to degrade. I believe that India is in a much worse state, but that does not absolve Europe (or the US), this will get worse and those governing will be seeing the inside of courts, defending the stage, the setting and their actions. The media (even those with ludicrous headlines) they all want their digital media coin, so they will rely on hardline after headline and it will be about creating flames, not information. That is how I see it and feel free to disagree.

And as November is a mere 2 hours away, consider the time line I gave. Then consider the headline that the Guardian relied on yesterday ‘‘It’s possible’: the race to approve a Covid vaccine by Christmas’, unless the vaccine is properly tested by Friday, that deadline cannot be kept. So when you see “Kate Bingham, who heads the UK’s vaccine taskforce, said the UK was in “a very good place”. But there are still hurdles to clear in the coming weeks” (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/its-possible-the-race-to-approve-a-covid-vaccine-by-christmas), and when we see “It could be Oxford University, partnered with drug company AstraZeneca. It could be Moderna in the US. Or it could be Pfizer and the German company BioNTech. All three have either recruited the last of the tens of thousands of volunteers they need for the critical final trials or will shortly do so”, in this I merely wonder whose trumpet she is blowing. I am not blaming her or the three, they have a hard job, yet unrealistic time lines are hard on us and they are facilitating for those trying to manage bad news and that is not right, not in this case (well, most often not in any case).

So if you are hoping or relying on a vaccine, think again. The numbers do not add up, on several sides and the media is not asking questions, so I am.

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The failing of others

We see this, others fail, we all do at times. My management position is different. I do not care about mistakes made, we all make them and anyone who claims that they do not make mistakes is either a liar or one who is about to make the whopper of all mistakes, history has proven me right again and again. You see, for me it is not about making the mistake, it is how quickly can you fix the mistake that was made, and if it is too late to fix it, what processes do you have in place? It is as reasonable as anyone can get. It is the application of realism. In all this there is the stage where others leave the door open, the door which you can come through. There was a setting earlier, now the setting is more defined. It is seen in ‘Saudi Arabia condemns republication of blasphemous caricatures’ (source: Arab News), they are not alone, all Islamic nations are opposing the farce France allowed for. A stage of ‘secularism’ versus ‘Intentionally insulting religion’, I feel certain that the Islamic nations are feeling a little less academic about it than I am. But for me there is an upside, I wanted to retire in Monaco (when you dream, it better be a good one), and the stage that we see in the Human Rights Watch, one with the headline ‘France Should Halt Arms Exports to Saudi Arabia’ (at https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/06/10/france-should-halt-arms-exports-saudi-arabia-egypt) where we were treated to “After Qatar, the governments of Saudi Arabia and Egypt received the greatest amounts, accounting for €1.4 billion and €1.0 billion in arms, respectively”, so lets take away the €1.4 billion from France and give it to China with a small finders fee, lets make that 3.75% for two years, with 5.3% for any additional sales over the €1.4 billion. I reckon that the stage will give me a retirement fee of € 105,000,000 and that is if there is no additional sales, but I reckon that I can pul that off to, I still have Gordian One in my back pocket and the first bonus will allow me to test it before setting it to the market. Everyone is all s up in arms and all about the evil that Saudi Arabia does, yet the simplest respect or tolerance for Islam is not to be found. So, why buy from them? An in this France has a $4.3B, Italy a $3.8B and Germany a whopping $7.5B, so in all this I would be in a position of a really nice retirement, can anyone blame me? I am upfront on my reasons, most others are not, most others hide behind their secularism to allow for right winged hatred, they are too afraid to be replaced and the worst thing is that replacement will happen at some point, so doing it whilst hurting your coffers to support your nation makes no sense at all, and as I am proving, there is always someone else ready to deliver what the customer needs. If party to is hungry enough, he or she will find a way and there are several nations that need to be aware of what comes next. France is only one example, the US has through its own actions endangered close to $10 billion in sales and in that case Russia and China are fighting on what they might deliver, at that point we see the shifting of the Middle East options that the US (the EU too) has left. A stage that will happen, the stage is too loud for it not too happen and several actions are already in the past, with Saudi Arabia having by far the fastest 5G setting, we see that there are additional setting for the KSA to embrace and China is seemingly increasingly willing to pick up that baton, two batons dropped by the EU and the US through acts of increasing stupidity and that setting is not stopping anyway soon, as that continues more and more additional offers of goods will come from other directions, and in this we see a larger stage, if the sales fall away the drop in jobs come pressing, it will result in additional economic stagnation, all whilst their larger opponents will get economic boost after boost. How will that play out? Well, I am speculating, not too good for the US and the EU, but if it goes my way I will have a nice golden parachute, and as such I will not care.

The station of acceptance is not merely giving the consumer what they want, it is accepting that they work with other values, it is the simplest of rules in the setting of larger sales and that is a mistake at least 5 nations have made, thinking that their values would be blindly accepted on a global setting. In this one source gives us “The Trump Administration has degraded environmental enforcement, favouring polluters over citizens’ interests”, as such, if for these people the environment is so important, why do we see shallow levels of acceptance? Hypocrisy is a dangerous form of ammunition, it can openly be used by shooter and target and there is no guarantee that it goes the way they think, in the end the hooter could end up getting shot by their own bullets. This is not a new setting, there is an entire dimension of sales systems banking on the failing of others, they refer to it as their pipeline, the pipeline of opportunity. So in this, what is wrong by resetting that pipeline to me? It is the way they do business, as such I can too.

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The end of denial

It is true, we all face it and when we do it is not always a pretty moment. I am no exception to this. It happens at some point of revelation or the consideration that I finally figure out a factor that others and I myself too had not considered. Before that it all made sense, yet after that moment and after we banged our own heads to a desk, the wall (a hardened surface) we get the thoughts “How could I have been this dim”, “WTF was I thinking” or the more popular “I have to start from scratch”, the last one is important in this. You see, most think that a mere course correction can fix this, and for the most that would be correct, yet there is the part we all ignore to take “If I forgot one element, what are the chances I forgot two?” You think it is that easy, but it is not. You see the first forgotten part could easily hide the second part and realising that is important. That is the stage that is illuminated by ‘The worst is yet to come’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/09/06/the-worst-is-yet-to-come/), even as I did not mention it there, the stage of escalations and even as I tipped on the stage with “other numbers give us “4,114,773”, the number is 50% off and that is merely the beginning. India might be the most visible one, but there is no way that they are the only one. There is yet more, it cannot be given full credibility”, it is a stage we go through and the confirmation became more visible as the day to day known infections raced towards 400K cases a day and on October 23 it stopped at 490K cases a day. I also observed “I believe there is a whole range of those with the Coronavirus and those who died of it are not counted for whatever reason. There is no blame here, the US and other nations had not been confronted with this situation for 100 years. The stage was never ready for this and with the bulk of all nations in a budget crunch it will not be resolved”, which is a larger truth in all this. And today the BBC gives us ‘Trump’s chief of staff admits US cannot control pandemic’, whether this is a ‘come clean moment’ or an ‘end denial moment’ doesn’t really matter, it is too late for some stage of ‘setting a solution’. Yet there we also see the next stage of denial. When we see “White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said Covid-19 could only be defeated by “mitigation areas” like vaccines and therapeutics”, this sounds nice in theory, yet there is no vaccine, anyone making a claim to the otherwise is lying to you. The Australian ABC now gives us, 12 hours ago ‘Why is the Government now saying it could take up to 12 months to roll out a coronavirus vaccine in Australia?’ The answer is simple, there is no vaccine, you can plan and make ideas for rolling out a vaccine in early 2021, but if there is no vaccine, it is merely a spreadsheet with dates. And that is the realisation that everyone wants you to forget. ABC acknowledges this with “depending on which candidate is ultimately successful” because the party giving us the vaccine is still unknown, they are all fighting to be the best, merely because the reward (money) is too appealing. So what on earth is making industry Minister Karen Andrews say “medical company CSL and CSIRO are equipped to quickly manufacture a “protein-based” vaccine — like the type being developed by the University of Queensland”, quickly manufacture what? There is no vaccine and the quicker we realise this the better we are off. Optionally 4% of the world population WILL die, that gives us that funeral directors will need access to up to 320 million caskets. OK, that was wrong and an exaggeration, plenty will opt for cremation. And my setting is only correct for as long as the 4% mortality rate holds up, when that escalates the numbers will really go up, having your money stuck in Wall Street will see its balance melt away like snow in a heatwave. 

The BBC comment I really likes was “He added that Mr Meadows’ comments showed that the Trump administration had “given up on their basic duty to protect the American people”, it sets a new stage in the US, the people intentionally opting not to wear a mask are now in a stage where they could optionally be held liable for endangering the lives of others and law firms will be quick to coin in on that too. This will not hold in rural places, but in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington DC, New York, and Boston? Yes, there we see a larger problem and the American people will have to choose between wearing a mask (a wise decision) or become optionally the subject of prosecution, in civl and possibly even criminal court. Because this too is the consequence of ‘given up on their basic duty to protect’, it is part of a blame game, when a person cannot point at the government, he or she will seek an alternative and suing is quite popular in America. As such I also feel vindicated in some form, I saw this coming months earlier and when we see “control of the virus was not a realistic goal because “it is a contagious virus just like the flu”” This stage was pretty clear 10 months ago, so why did the US administration set the bar to unrealistic goals? The article ends with a question mark. It is seen with “Speaking to the BBC on Sunday, top US infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci said a Covid-19 vaccine could be available in the US before the end of the year if one proved to be “safe and effective”, but that the first doses would go to people in order of priority. He said it would take “several months into 2021” before the vaccine was more widely available.” There is a large question mark here, mainly because THERE IS NO VACCINE! It is the largest setting in this. I have no intent (or knowledge levels) to go up against Dr. Fauci and it is the stage that we need to see, because the BBC gives us “could be available”, as well as “if one proved to be” the application of ‘could’ and ‘if’, a ‘What-if’ stage with optional parameters and that is not a safe stage to be on. The rest makes sense priority cases first, and optional distribution after but the larger stage is not that distribution will come, but when it will come, there is no vaccine at present and every week it is not out, the distribution will slowly but certainly move towards the second half of 2021. And it is not merely me saying this, ABC gave us 4 days ago “First COVID vaccines on track for early-to-mid next year”, they give us the inclusion of mid next year, a realistic stage, but one that is driven by availability. And that is one of two factors. When the vaccine is a fact, how long do you think it will take to make 2 billion doses? And in this what else will surface? No matter how safe it seemingly is, the stage cannot be managed to make it safe to ALL, anyone who relies on that is plainly stupid. Even as a setting of 100 gave one person who got complications (and seemingly overcame them) it is not a given, we cannot speculate on a 100% success rate, it is short sighted and foolish. 

In September I wrote ‘the worst is yet to come’ and we are nowhere near that stage, so as idiot media (like the Daily Telegraph) create fear with ‘Australians kept in the dark on rollout of a COVID vaccine’, or given false hope with ‘Donald Trump’s advisor claims COVID vaccine will be ready by November’ (all within the last 10 hours), we need to accept one truth, there is at present NO VACCINE, when there is no vaccine there is no viable plan for a rollout, you see a vaccine needs mass production first, so there is that too. Yet, feel free to rely on that stupid fuck Chris Evans (the editor, not the actor). And when the vaccine is finalised in march 2021 (or after that), who will he blame for the articles? 

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A coin with 2 sides of greed

This morning started out alright, I was still pondering on what I had wrote yesterday and I still stand by it. Any voices on complexity are not dimmed, the issue is larger than I wrote about it, but to take the full scope makes the matter too complex, I was all about oversimplification, as that tends to show things, but it also polarises any view (including mine). This is what was in my mind when the news on Proton-mail and Andy Yen hit me. You see the moment any firm goes into some preaching stage of ‘App Fairness’ mode, the hairs in my neck tend to rise to the occasion. Now, those who read my blog regularly will have seen that I have no issue slapping the big boys silly whenever I can. So like the proverbial pitbull, I have had a mouthful of pants with Apple, Google, IBM and Microsoft logo’s and a chunk of their asses. No matter how big they are, I do not pull my punches (much more fun the way), so let’s have a look at Andy Yen, actually, let’s do something else first, it helps you to understand the station where I am at.

In 2008 Apple launched the App store, initially with around 500 apps. Apple saw in the early days the third party developers would bring home the bacon, but in those years it was not easy being a developer. Those developing for windows had well over a decade of experience and in those days the Software Development Kit would cost a developer $1500, with the additional programming packages and consultancy lessons. So ANY developer would be out of pocket between $3,000 and $5,000 and they would not have anything to show for it. The cost would drastically increase when the program was ready, but the was for another time. So in those days Apple got clever about it and gave us “To publish apps on App Store, developers must pay a $99 yearly fee for access to Apple’s Developer Program”, now consider the first setting of $99 versus $3,000, a new stage that allowed the dreamers and the wickedly clever to publish without a setting of some bulk investment and there was another part, “The income app stores take is 30%. Apple started setting that as a standard – they weren’t the first, but the iOS app ecosystem has been used as a model by many other players in the mobile app space”, now consider the you are a small developer, selling your software will need servers, protection software, shopping kart software, income checkers and go on from that. Apple delivered a system that does it all, so the developer will only need to upload their readied product. Thousands of dollars saved and the small developers get an almost free ride and they pay later through every sale. 

This is beyond fair, because the one million programs that came in the first decade would evolve, these people had a second option. They would sell their program for $0.99-$5 and Apple merely takes 30% of the sale, 70% remains with the makers and that contribution setting was already in play with software houses from the 90’s, yet those programs were often $299-$999. A mobile with the option of programs costing less than $5 are more easily sold and these makers suddenly made thousands of dollars, most of them massively happy. In that same light under Microsoft these developers would never exist. The cost of being up and running would strip all revenue away. As such Apple (and Google too) would create a wave of people creating the thousands of dollars to fuel the system would basically be paid for by the more successful players in this field.

So when I see the headline ‘Why we joined the Coalition for App Fairness’, I merely see a greed driven non-truth that is (as I personally see it) fuelled by greed.

So now the you have some of the background, we see the real deal, people like Epic Games and Proton-mail, they had an idea and they used that system to get ahead, which is nice for them, yet now, now that they made it, they want to avoid fees, they want the 30% that they initially signed up for as well. It is basically the same with Epic Games, once they made the numbers, their success went to their heads and they are now fishing (or is that phishing) for the 30% they signed up for? They want to avoid the apple fee and for one player it makes sense, yet this system was designed so that the small players would get a chance to become big, a stage that many faced. So when I see these ‘displays of fairness’ I merely see greed driven players merely wanting more.

The setting is however larger. The quote “First, to be clear, our mission at Proton is to foster an open, free, private, and secure internet. We exist today because a large community of people agree with these goals and support our work. Helping to found CAF does not in any way signal a deviation from these core values. Proton will always remain fiercely protective of our independence in order to put user interests first” gets to be ripped to shreds when we see “to foster an open, free, private, and secure internet”, yes they do have a free option, but it is limited, which might be fair enough, their goal is to be ready for the 4.00 € and 24.00 € a month users, whilst their free accounts are limited, the paying ones are driving this and so far they got 10 million people in their accounts, I am not aware how many constitutes free accounts.

Another point was “Our purpose for joining CAF is not about advancing the goals of Spotify and Epic, but about making sure that you, our community, have a voice in this important debate”, is the so? I find it debatable, for the simple reason that we are also handed “ProtonMail is run by Proton Technologies AG, a company based in the Canton of Geneva, and its servers are located at two locations in Switzerland, outside of US and EU jurisdiction”, whilst this sounds nice, outside of jurisdictions comes at a price and one could argue the organised crime finds the approach appealing, as do some people the want to avoid data accountability, but for the most, I am on the fence of how reliable data safety outside of jurisdictions tend to be (I am not making any statement on the security they run). So the app store has them as a free app, which implies that they are free, but they offer ‘Offers In-App Purchases’, and their own Twitter account gives us “We actually don’t understand the significance of paid account here? ProtonMail doesn’t offer in app purchases on Android, so purchases need to be made through our Swiss website”, and there is the kicker, they want it via their own website to avoid the 30%, exactly how Epic Games set it up, once they have the foundation of users, they want to avoid Apple (and/or Google) fees. 

I need to admit that Andy Yen is in a slightly different setting (as is Epic Games). You see, he started with the backing through kick-starters and ended up with a beginning capital of $500K, 5 times of what they needed to get started, a lot do not have that option, which I admit is not the stage that Andy Yen cares about (yet he claims the opposite), we get it, but when we see ‘a better internet that puts people first’, we need to realise the this was exactly what Apple did (Google too), by setting the contribution cycle almost EVERY developer had their chance at stardom, and whilst we see ‘free app’, how many people would have taken it up when the app had to be bought at $9.99, or $19.99? You forget that if we avoid the contribution cycle, we see the the funds need to be found somewhere, do they not? You really cannot get it both ways and for the most the contribution cycle is the most fair, because it is only taken from actual sales, so the newbies get to be there for free or for nothing (or both), and the big players basically pay for the little people.

Consider that and the fact that there is a price for being able to chose from 1.75 million app on a store. If that setting did not exist these store would end up having well over a million apps less. And this year, in the covid year, there is suddenly the need to avoid paying because the investors need to be appeased. As I personally see it greed is the final equaliser against choice, because these players want to be the only provider and the current stage allows new developers deploy their system, optionally a real innovative one, but they get a to because the costs of starting are not there, not like it was anyway.

Happy now?

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About that news

Yup, we always have news, news we agree with and news we disagree with, this is not new, this is a mainstream setting. Yet this is not about news that is fake or false. Even if news is completely true, we might disagree because we do not like the subject, or because we differ on the facts that we know and accept. News becomes subjective and optionally not wrong, incorrect or false. It is a setting we all to some degree battle with. Pretty much all sport fans are in the setting when they read the news on Monday morning. So I had to consider a few things when I saw ‘Canada charges man for lying about joining ISIL’ (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/9/26/canada-mounties-charge-man-with-falsely-claiming-extremism). Now I have no real setting towards it, I do not understand why you would only join ISIL in the mind, but there you have it. On one side we can argue the only the truly unbalanced minds will join a terrorist organisation, implying that any person making it as a false claim is an optional mental health patient. One source, Isabella Frances Teti in 2016 via the presidential leadership academy at Penn State, gives us “ISIL’s ideology represents radical Salafi Islam, a strict, puritanical form of Sunni Islam 

I do not judge, because I am not islamic, yet I feel that any person who truly believes in Sunni Islam would join the armies of either Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or Syria and from there protect Sunni Islam, I left Turkey out of the equation in light of the fact that they seem to side with Iran (a Shia nation) all the time. In addition, the I personally do not understand the stage of ‘radical Salafi Islam’, as such I feel a little lost, but I do know that going the path of terrorism is not a solution, so there is my view on the stage, yet was a news article and there are other considerations, the more important one comes next

In light of the data

Consider the we see “Police said the criminal charge against Chaudhry stems from ‘numerous’ media interviews in which he described travelling to Syria in 2016 to join ISIL”, so not only did it a little while for the police and intelligence players a while to catch on, this farce had been going on since 2016, so for 4 years we see that the players were not in the know, their intelligence is that flawed the they could not see through the lies? When we see “The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) said in a statement on Friday the criminal charge against Shehroze Chaudhry stems from “numerous” media interviews in which he described travelling to Syria in 2016 to join the armed group and committing acts of “terrorism”” OK, I agree the there is another way to read this and it had not taken 4 years, yet the setting of ‘“numerous” media interviews’ makes me wonder how many interviews there were and how the information was vetted. From my point of view there is the stage on where Shehroze Chaundry joined, if it included travel from Canada, how was this investigated? So how should we read “charged with a criminal code offence of perpetrating a hoax related to terrorist activity”, as such can I be charged by virtually knocking up a desirable woman? (sorry Natascha McElhone) 

Now, I am not making light of the situation (my desire for Natasha McElhone is real), yet when we see how much is spend on terrorist intelligence and data gathering from 2001 onward, how come it took so long to get a complete picture? 

I understand why there is a charge, especially when I see “the RCMP takes these allegations very seriously, particularly when individuals, by their actions, cause the police to enter into investigations in which human and financial resources are invested and diverted from other ongoing priorities,″ said deGale, commander of an RCMP security enforcement team”, that makes sense, but the stage I see is the timeline between the claim and the discovery. As the article ‘hides’ behind ‘numerous’ as the stage of amount of interviews, which is merely a part in al this. A larger part is the fact that the boy is 25, if this started in 2016, it implies he was 21 at the point, so what travel papers, what modes of transportation and what settings of smuggle were used? How can any person be so in the know that 2-3 interviews would not have brought serious doubt into the mix? And even as I agree with the setting of “The RCMP said it collaborated with several other agencies during its investigation”, which is a proper setting for any investigation, I wonder at what point did Commander deGale become aware that this was not a blood soaking terrorist, but someone with a vivid imagination (which got me to Natasha McElhone), I admit there is nothing wrong with my imagination, other that in some spectral views (the intimate kind), it is massively disconnected from reality, and who does not have that at times?

I myself, would have started by looking into Shehroze Chaudhry’s religious past, talk to his imam on the views that Shehroze Chaudhry might have and if the imam could explain the stage of Chaundry moving towards a strict, puritanical form of Sunni Islam. Let’s be honest, this might hold water in the US, but Canada? The is the place where boys are born wearing hockey skates and where we hear “Darn, I forgot to close the kitchen door, everyone, there is a bear in the kitchen, lets get a pizza, dinner and the bear will be gone in 5 minutes”, I am not stating that strict Sunni Islam is out of the question, but there seemingly would not be any reason to join ISIL (as I personally see it). There was Islamic places of worship all over Canada, it does not mean that there is a strict Sunny Islam all over the place, but as I see it there are a few options before someone go’s towards ISIL, I got all this in 30 minutes, it is not that some results and data would not be shared, yet the timeline seems off (by a lot). 

Still, the stage of perpetrating a hoax towards being a terrorist could only happen in Canada, in the US that person would most likely be in a Black site until December 2037. I reckon Canada saved itself a few bills.

 

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Choices

We all see them, we all have them and we often have a feeling of polarisation when we are hit by them. It all starts with a tweet by George Takei. I greatly admire the guy, not in the least as Lt. Sulu on the Enterprise. The man is intelligent, direct and has (as I personally see it) ownership of the statement ‘Oh my!’ George has an impressive history as an actor and as a humanitarian. He is also an activist and all that does not break down in any way of the person he is. I have no problem s towards him as a person or as a republican, he is the kind of person that actually makes America great and we have to accept that. I have no issues with him and I have no issues with his stance against President Trump, even as I agree with him on this matter, no matter how republican I am, we need to be held to account for what we say and what we do and I believe the fits with the republican point of view.

So when I saw the tweet, I was a little miffed. You see, in the directness of the setting Senator Gardner is actually correct. When we look at the constitution we see “When a vacancy occurs, the president, with the advice and consent of the Senate, appoints a new justice”, it is however a little more complex. The president can choose whomever he wants, yet it must be settled through a majority in the US Senate. As such 51 senators need to confirm the appointment and that is where it gets to be complex. 

Candidates are nominated by the President of the United States and must face a series of hearings in which both the nominee and other witnesses make statements and answer questions before the Senate Judiciary Committee, which can vote to send the nomination to the full United States Senate. Confirmation by the Senate allows the President to formally appoint the candidate to the court. The Constitution does not set any qualifications for service as a Justice, thus the President may nominate any individual to serve on the Court”, yet feel free to read up (at https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Nominations.htm). 

It is the series of hearings the are the big issue in most cases, yet here to President Trump has an advantage, or does he? To see this, we need to voice the opinion of an individual. This was done with “RIP to the more than 30 million innocent babies that have been murdered during the decades that Ruth Bader Ginsburg defended pro-abortion laws”, the issue is not one I agree with, but that visibility will aid us. Some republicans and especially the pro-life people will want a different type of judge, they will have a polarising look at the entire situation, yet when we examine congress we get a grasp of PEW research (at https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/06/18/three-in-ten-or-more-democrats-and-republicans-dont-agree-with-their-party-on-abortion/).

No matter how we want to see the data, we need to see the top-line net numbers. In this only 64% of the Republicans agree with this stance. Moreover, the 7% of the democrats agreeing with the Republicans will not be enough to carry the call of a majority, the hearing will be on many issues, but as you can see depending on the hearing, there will be any number of issues that the senate will be dissenting on and the hearings will be a task on a few items and even as there is a Republican senate, it might not be enough for a few reasons. 

As a law graduate I have to believe in the process and the US has a larger process, as I see it the constitution sets a large protective fence around the nation of law setting and that is good, so as such the selection of any Supreme Court judge is a big thing, it will be a big thing for either side of the isle and it is the right for the Republicans to select one (for now) and if the US senate confirms the choice, it will be a one deal.

When we see “When a vacancy occurs, the president, with the advice and consent of the Senate, appoints a new justice”, why does anyone assume that the presently elected president would not try to select a Supreme? It is one of the greatest things any president gets to do. So for the Democrats it kind of sicks that the timing is off, but that does not matter, there is a vacancy, and this president gets to nominate the next one.

And before we give rise to the ones making noise on the fairness of it. Consider the this president got elected by the 55% the voted, if Demo(c)rats are so about the issue, remember, 45% could not be bothered getting out of bed to vote. That sucks doesn’t it?

So as we are confronted with the choices of people, we need to accept the we might not agree with all, but we accept the they have a right to chose. I might not agree with George Takei all the time, but his choices tend to be intelligent, as such I will take notice. So whilst we see all kinds of flames are started on Twitter and Facebook, we have to consider to reset a lot of them (99%) from the get go and learn what is involved with certain choices and nominations. Who of you knew of the hearings? Who knew that a nomination requires a majority approval? Who knew that the last one elected (also by President Trump) got there after a grilling that took 48 hours and well over 1250 questions. As such there is a stage we need to consider, if the last two were not bad choices (Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh), why is there so much opposition? We all accept that Ruth Bader Ginsburg was an amazing judge and filling those shoes will be a hard task, but the rules of the game (the constitution) are clear, There is a vacancy and a nomination can be put forward, the vacancy happened in the age of President Trump and unless there is actual evidence that the previous two were wrong choices, we get to blame the US senate, I merely wonder who dug through those 1250 questions and came optionally to the conclusion of wrongful election?  

I made a choice, George Takei made a choice, Senator Gardner made a choice, the US Senate made its choice and President Trump made a choice. I am not wise enough to proclaim who was wrong, optionally none were. Could you be wrong?

This is the beauty of subjectivity, it is our right, it is the right of most people living in a free democratic world.

 

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Sto what? It’s the Rage that we get to see

Yup, IGN gives us ‘PS5 File Sizes Revealed for Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales and Demon’s Souls’, which is not really that much of a surprise, yet there is a part that was a surprise “Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales Launch Edition will require at least 50 GB, while the Ultimate Launch Edition will need at least 105 GB of space as it also includes a remastered version of 2018’s Marvel’s Spider-Man”, so even as IGN gives us that there is more gaming with Miles Morales, the stage that the game is that extra is a nice surprise for the PlayStation people. Yet the issue is the storage, I saw this issue coming a long time ago, basically, storage issues were on my radar since 2012, when Microsoft was a lot less eager to listen to its users. In the stage now, we see that Microsoft is finally listening, we see the stage the I foresaw in the Xbox One series X, 4K gaming requires storage and a lot of it. Now both systems will have space for an additional SSD, so there should be more than enough storage when the additional drive is installed. There is however the newness of the NVMe SSD. Even as the 2TB drives are not cheap ($368), it is the 4TB (at $1199) where the price tends to really matter. Now the are generic NVMe SSD, as the PS5 one is less generic, even faster and currently not available, the stage is coming to larger upgrades and there is no doubt that Microsoft has its own version. 

So even as we need to take to heart the message that IGN gives us, we also need to consider that there is a real setback for those relying on the digital edition versions of either console. When we consider that the PS5 dic holds 100GB, and when we also consider that the games are 50GB or larger, consider the patches that you have to download, and consider the download of any new patch, and people are surprised that I am a DISC fanatic? 

You see, before 5G is completely deployed (For Sydney that is the time of now until somewhere 2022), consider the no less than 175.000 systems (Microsoft and Sony), and the setting that the bulk will need to download 50GB optionally more than once a week. Congestion is the only path that remains. Consider that normal usage during the lockdown forced YouTube and Netflix to downgrade their streams, Netflix would not show 4K movies (as I understood), so what do you think that all the downloads of games and patches will accomplish? 

And in all this, the fact that until the systems have enough storage, games might have to be downloaded more than once, we see more congestion and IGN gives us that 2 games amount to 20%, so now add Skyrim, Fallout 4, the new TES game and the new Fallout game and this list will go on for a while, so on both systems we are likely to see 99.3% filled drives, implying the until the additional drive is installed, more games need to be installed multiple times and it will add to congestion. Now consider the stage in the UK, London, where we see 6 million people and there is every chance that there will be a little over a million nextgen consoles in London (both Sony and Microsoft), so how much congestion will they face? Consider that the lockdown will continue in the UK, a console might be the only relief that a lot will see and in all this, they will be screaming congestion next to YouTube and Netflix, did no one catch on?

It is the simplest of settings and we will see congestion all over the EU, the US, and most Commonwealth nations. So when we realise that last March we got “Sony Will Throttle US Game Download Speeds to Help Ease Internet Congestion”, how do you think it all goes when two companies launches their nextgen consoles on a global scale? When we consider that the new games are at least 20% larger and millions will take the ‘cheaper’ edition that is digital only, do you have any idea the level of congestion we will face? It will go down somewhat AFTER we get the additional drive, but for some that might be a year away, and now we will see a group of people relying on the digital edition, so no drives, that sets the stage to millions with downloads only, I wonder how many people have the bandwidth to deal with the console needs, because at $10 per GB, that bill will add up really fast. 

In the end people will trivialise their digital needs, but in about 8 weeks the first groups will set the threshold on an international stage and the news will suddenly be about how gamers use all the bandwidth, they will suddenly be the bad guys. Yet the stage we see now is all about a digital shift the the business world is not ready for and the vilification of Huawei is not helping, but I reckon that we will see the impact during the holiday season of 2020, the final numbest is unknown, because the total sold systems from Sony and Microsoft will not be clear in the initial setting, they are both part of the issue, this is nothing against either, this is the future of gaming and this will be the first time when the internet not the system will be the bottleneck, it is a new situation for all of us.

 

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