Tag Archives: USA debt

Is it that simple?

There is a stage when the village idiots shout things that kinda offends us, but we whisk it away. Then we reconsider their shouts and think ‘Has it come to this?’ And we consider what we know. So as we are given (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq93j34lgo) by the BBC that ‘Trump threatens new Canada tariffs over fires sending ‘filthy’ air into US cities’ the first think I want to say is that Canada had no protests coming to the aid of California whilst it was burning down (and Doug Ford, a man from Etobicoke said so), and as we see that the United States puts over 1000% (compared to Canada) pollution in the air, we might think a few things of these village idiots. But then we consider does it help to counter these people? So I went to think in another direction. ‘Has the United States become this broke?’ Because there is reason for this thought even though we hear people say that a country cannot go broke, they can print money. Some (the really old people) might remember the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic between 1914 and 1923. 

We get into the setting that people pay DM150,000 for a bag of potatoes (not to mention the price of beef and butter) so this is not a solution and at that point all saving are almost immediately reduced to zero. Beside that the White House requested a record-breaking $1.5 trillion for the defense budget for Fiscal Year 2027, alongside a separate $87.6 billion supplemental request driven heavily by military campaign costs related to Iran. And that is where things get really (really) dicey. You see, the total U.S. national gross debt stands at approximately $39.4 trillion, which implies that the United States now has an annual interest bill of over a trillion dollars. As the IRS (the American donation system) gets about the Internal Revenue Service collected $5.3 trillion in gross taxes, processed 271.4 million returns and forms, and issued $638.8 billion in refunds, this now implies that the United States will have to do with at least 18% less money and that is happening in less then 12 months. How do you think the United States can pay for infrastructure and other services? I saw this coming a few years ago and I tried to warn you all about it, but people like to listen to those countering that and claiming that there are solutions. The United States is too big to go broke. As I see it, the invoices need to be paid and the United States will have nothing left to pay in 12-24 months. At present we will see that certain things will be pushed forward and others are set in the backpay setting, but it is now running out, as such the United States are now claiming all these tariffs and other money making settings, but as I see it, the party is now as I would personally see it, officially over. And as the United States gets less and less revenue as they pissed of pretty much any ally they have, the new setting is that they need to get whatever they can. I saw the 51st state (Canada), Greenland, Venezuela and Iran as the precursors towards a nation too deep in debt. And there were others who saw it as well. As I reported in March in my article ‘Where is the trust’ (on March 17th 2026, at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/03/17/where-is-the-trust/) where I wrote: “Because if I can figure this out in the last decade and now we get that Dave Kelly (JP Morgan, as per OCT2025) can figure this out, you should wonder why others couldn’t figure this out. I get that I am a no one is all this, but David Kelly is the Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Global Market Insights Strategy Team of JP Morgan and he is a voice to consider no matter how you slice it” as such my speculative setting is that the party is over and the chances that the economy of the United States will collapse in the next 12-24 months. And there is more bad news, those who held onto the treasury bonds might also dump those in the near future and there is no leeway for the United States, they pissed off too many people. So as I see it, they all made their beds in that election on November 5th, 2024. Which was the last nail the United States had left. This setting did not come overnight, this setting was pretty clear around ‘The deal compared to morality’ which I wrote on January 29th 2021. So this stage has been evolving for a while and the political players went from hype to hype (the current one is the nonexistent hype of AI) and no one is asking the hard questions. But as I see it, the setting is most likely to be that the banks in the United States will likely go in some vulture setting, because at that point the carcass of what was the United States will be devoured. This setting was encouraged by the settings of Wall Street and others have faced it and now the United States will face that and a likely 330,000,000 massively angry people, but that is what they signed up for, they could have voted differently. 

So whilst everyone is looking for a way out, they will see that there are not that many options. The current administration burned those bridges down to a cinder. 

Have a great day and consider what is real and what is not. Perhaps I am all wrong (not certain I am), perhaps (massively unlikely) so is David Kelly of JP Morgan, but there is too much out there and someone will figure out what I did well before 2021. So have a great day and don’t forget that that in Germany 1923 the price of coffee became a famous historical example of runaway prices, famously rising from 5,000 marks to 7,000 or 8,000 marks in the time it took to drink it, so when did anyone in the United States make enough money to afford such a cup of coffee?

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Two issues caught my attention.

The first issue is given to us by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx002795738o) The article starts with ‘‘I had to downgrade my life’ – US workers in debt to buy groceries’. In this I have a few speculations. You see Groceries are also set by ‘Permanent Price Adjustment’. This is what the producers of milk, bread and pretty much all items do. You see as they have costs and increased costs for whatever reasons. They pass on these cost to the shop, which in turn passes it onto you, the consumer. In the last 3 years things got to be more expensive and as such you feel that brunt. Per nation this varies. In Australia meat went up in total by 20% (over the last 3 years). Milk less so, but plenty of goods did go up and many have not seen an increase in income for years. So as we see “But after four years of rising prices, her support has worn thin – and every time she shops at the supermarket, she is reminded how things have changed for the worse. Ms Ellis works full-time as a nurse’s assistant and has a second part-time job” So in this case (as a republican minded person) I say that this is not on President Biden, not even on former president Trump. You see this is the consequence of having a $34,000,000,000,000 debt. As such businesses are taxed and as I see it, annually any administration will have to come up with $680,000,000,000 in interest alone. In 2023 the USA received (or allegedly received) $4,440,000,000,000. This implies that 15% of all taxed income goes towards interest on the outstanding debt and I have merely set that to 2%, Now consider that all costs that the government pays for is now down graded by 15% (more likely a higher percentage as the interest is also higher than 2%). Now consider that dairy, bread, meat and other options do not get incentives anymore (or at least a lot less). So there two items alone will be a lot more expensive. Then there is the operations of shops. It goes around again and again and that sets the price in many ways. There are more elements, but I am not privy to them. I warned on this several times over the last 8 years. There was going to be a problem and now people are seeing this happen and that is the beginning of draconian changes. So as Stacey Ellis and others see this happen, they go into ‘blame mode’ but they are blaming the wrong people. This is a failing of the entire administration and it started with former president George W. Bush in 2001. Former president Bill Clinton was the last president where green ink was gracing the US books of accounting. In 24 years all presidents have been pushing the debt forward. There was no exit strategy, just the wishful thinking that ‘tomorrow would be a better day’ and now after 24 years it is close to over. Not just in the USA, Europe is in a near similar place. That is what China had been hoping for so as they set the pressure even higher by getting the better deals, the west and others see the unfolding of economic disasters. And I am no economist! So there is the setting that plenty of others (real economics) should have known this and should have pushed for changes and taxing the rich was never an option. When government overreach with their Credit Card for 10%-20% more annually, at some point the card decline point is reached and that is where we are now. The USA, EU nations and others are getting their cards declined. Banks aren’t able to extent loans and whilst some are creative to pass credits via other nations. The banks are realising that the game is almost over. They might have a few options left but that will depend on how creative they can get. For this (also my speculative view) I point at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank. Three banks in 2023 with failures. Yet the media never looked at the abundant government loans they had in their books, it was my speculative view that their bonds were an overreach. So else did Janet Yellen keep a close view? At this point we were given ‘US prosecutors probing collapse of Silicon Valley Bank’ which was March 2023 and after that? Nothing as I can tell, as such spokespeople for the SEC, SVB and the Justice Department declined to comment. That was more than a year ago. So why isn’t the media doing their job? These are all elements of a nation that is running out of money and they are afraid to give out the real deal. I get it, it makes sense but it also means that life in the USA will be getting more and more expensive and when small farmers are breaking with the usual trend and start merely supplying their villages and their ‘friends’ the game changes even further. The big players cannot make claims they downgraded small farmers too often so that will have increased pressures to life in the city. And before you classify that this does not matter, be aware that 90% are small farms in the US. So when they hold back 10% of their farmed good for personal settings prices will be driven up even further. There is a setting where the old times could come back. I remember in the 60’s that I went to the potato farmer in a small shop in the street. That time could be back and it will implode most supermarkets. The stage is almost there that the supermarkets will be too expensive for potatoes, vegetables, fruit, dairy products and meat. When that happens the implosion that it sets off will be seen all over the US, especially in the metropolitan regions. Europe will not be far behind that. 

They are all intertwined so the first one to go will push the others over the edge. And when super markets go, where will you get your shopping? I reckon that California will hold out the longest, but in the end they too will have a problem. For the EU nations, France and Germany will hold out the longest. The UK will hold out, but how they will fare is anyones guess. I reckon that London will be the larger problem. The other cities are closer to rural regions, but for them I cannot say how it will evolve. 

So whilst the BBC gives us the partial goods. We need to see that the Stacey Ellis is but an element of a much larger problem and the media had the information for the longest of times. So why did they not inform you? Which stakeholders were part of the problem? All questions that too many are afraid to ask about. 

Have a great day (Second issue in next story).

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Is it that bad?

That was the first question that came to mind. I was ‘reading’ Mirage News (at https://www.miragenews.com/blinken-meets-with-uae-president-sheikh-mohammed-1103623/) where we see ‘Blinken Meets with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed’. It is there where we are given “Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met today with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi to discuss the terrorist attacks on Israel. The Secretary expressed appreciation for the UAE’s clear condemnation of Hamas’ heinous attacks on Israeli civilians and continued diplomatic engagement to prevent the spread of conflict”. Now, from my personal point of view (and an utter inexperience) of dealing with royalty, the fact that the nation is thousands of miles away (roughly 11,325,624 cm) I would rely on that invention by Alexander Graham Bell, or its  mobile equivalent. This was about something else. If you use the Gaza events to break the ice, you can be decently certain that the real situation is a dire one. 

It is anyones guess what the real deal is. BRICS is a decent thought, as they are gaining a lot of steam, all whilst dumping USA bonds. The second one is technology advancement. The fact that China now has the upper hand in the UAE (and Saudi Arabia) for construction projects, for 5G deployment projects and with defence spendings. These three add up to hundreds of billions of dollars and the USA is no longer the party in the ‘A’ column. And the part of desperation? This is seen with “commitment to building a more integrated, secure, and prosperous region, and reaffirmed the importance of the strategic partnership between the United States and the United Arab Emirates”. As such my question becomes show me five examples where the United States has set a stage of integration with the UAE in the last 5 years? Give me also 5 examples where the United States has made the UAE more secure? That is merely two examples out of a decent bag filled of examples. The United States has dropped the ball several times all over the Middle East and now that the countdown to collapse has started the United States is eager to clamp onto any connection so that they can delay the last part of the countdown. 

I get it, plenty of people doubt me, call me crazy or call me a loon (the last part might be true). Yet the larger stage in all this is that the US is reaching out to whomever they can. Last month it was with India, China in June and Brazil in march. The US is seeking out the BRICS members and trying to get a hand-up in their collapsing economy. When we realise that “as of August 2023, the United States government has a monthly interest rate of 2.92 percent on its debt” and when you realise that this amounts to well over 900 billion dollars a month all whilst The U.S. government has collected $3.97 trillion in fiscal year 2023. We get the numbers. When we see the interest as the mark, we see that 100% of taxation merely covers 22% of the interest they have accrued. I saw this moment in 2017, the setting was a mere exercise of an abacus and it was a finite moment. This is the consequence of inactions and political haymaking all whilst these politicians never had a hoe to collect the hay. An exercise in prototyping and conjecture is merely a training exercise, but it was sold as a product, just like these software developers in the 90’s. Over 99% of those did not survive their presentations. Now we are mere inches away from seeing it happen to a government. China played the long game, China wins. It is simple mathematics and they have relied on it for almost 900 years. Most nations (especially in the EU) diid not follow that example for almost 400 years. 

So the question ‘Is it that bad’ is a serious one and I am not the best source of answer here, but the media is not informing you on how serious matters are either, are they?

Enjoy the Sunday that is almost over for me and starting in the very very west (Vancouver).

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