We all evolve what we make, what we consider and what we design, it is a natural act. There are no hidden flaws or weaknesses. We evolve what we see, what we can. It is in our nature. So, two years go I came up with two ideas, the first was to meltdown an Iranian nuclear reactor in a new novel way, and the second one was to take care of the Iranian navy (America was doing efff all). And would you believe it, these two ideas should work on Russian hardware too. Yet today a thought occurred to me. I am not aware if it is true, but the Russian deploy water microphones to make sure no one gets the drop on their strategic locations. As I was thinking that, I remembered something from my youth. In 1775 David Bushnell designed a one man submarine. I saw the blueprints, they were awesome. He came up with the idea, the concept and the design almost a century before Jules Verne came up with 20,000 leagues under the sea. He was that much of an innovator. So now we have better equipment and we could make a carbon fibre solution. Yet what about those microphones? It seems to me that these microphones cannot detect chemical propulsion. People are so about machines, fossil fuels and nuclear rods that they forget that chemical propulsion comes from the 19th century. I would call that vessel the USS Antoine Lavoisier, credit where credit is due and the French had their great moments.
In addition, when we deploy a silicone hose that at deployment is coated with the same chemicals a clamp has to attach itself to anything and the hose is filled with two elements. The first is thermite. The second is a wire with attached balls and we deploy it over the length (or a large enough length) of any boat or submarine and we end the connection with a chemical fuse no one would be the wiser. And the nice thing is that if that activation is nicely timed, we do not merely take out the vessel, we take out the port as it is blocked for a considerable length of time. The second one was already designed, the first part was new. I hd initially a drone in mind, but in this way there is no signal, no nothing. Merely silence and a suddenly sinking craft. The balls are no more than in inch. You see, the explosion need not be big, merely enough to create small gaps in the inner hull, the outer hull has a strip missing bigger than the titanic, as such the outer hull is now filling with water changing the rules of Archimedes on that vessel, the blasts will create enough small holes so that the inner hull starts filling too and even if the alarms sound, the two dozen small gaps is flooding in water and by the time the crew is alert the damage is too far gone and Archimedes waves at the vessel no longer able to remain afloat, and out next generation turtle (optionally looking very different) moves way like Don Juan silently into the night avoiding a livid husband.
Whatever will I come up next. Perhaps a new way to deploy EMP drones. This should keep the MIG’s in their stables. So in three small mental exercises (two at present) I took care of Russian reactors, The Navy and soon the airforce. No need to do anything about the Russian army. The Ukrainians are slapping that near to death horse. So what has DARPA been up to lately?
I earned my cookie today! And all of you? Enjoy the final day of your weekend.
Yes, we all see that and it has repercussions for these people. We might sit on the sidelines laughing, but it shows a dangerous premise, the stupidity of America, the stupidity of some Americans and how they scuttled their own ship called ‘Future of us’ and ‘us’ could also be seen as ‘US’. This is shown in two articles. The first one is from Yahoo Finance. There was a little better NY Times article, but that was behind a paywall, so you would not be able to read the whole text.
The article (at https://news.yahoo.com/disney-cancels-1-billion-florida-185105108.html) gives us ‘Disney Cancels $1 Billion Florida Expansion’. A setting that came because an idiot (aka Gov. Ron DeSantis) decided to start a war for a trivial reason. He wanted to ‘Douse the Mouse’ (sorry Brittlestar, this is too good a slogan to pass up). And now Disney has cancelled an expansion where we get “The 10-figure office complex near Walt Disney World would have brought more than 2,000 jobs to the region, according to an estimate from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity” So not only does this governor rub any fat cat the wrong way. He now has grievance with the Commercial houses of Florida, his Republican back, the Democrats of Florida and a few other people. Along with the 2000 people not getting a job, up to 8 people connected to anyone losing that job, as such he is 25,000-50,000 votes down and there is likely a larger loss for the Republican side. An ego centric stupid act on the premise of perception that should not have existed in the first place. It is stupid for a few reasons more. The American have alienated Saudi Arabia, optionally the UAE, Egypt and Lebanon as well. Billions in defence industry is now going to China, building contracts in Syria and Saudi Arabia are now going to China, as such the EU and USA are losing out on billions more. The idea that the EU will cater to another Disney-world giving the EU billions more is not out of the question, all money lost to the US, in a stage where they have over 31 trillion in debt. An act too stupid to contemplate and this could have been avoided. In the 70’s my elders taught me ‘Do not bite the hand that feeds you’ and in 1968 we have the premise ‘Money talks, bullshit walks’ and the US seemingly only has walking left. In this day and age I saw the option for millions more in revenue in IT and it will likely go to the UK, the EU (Germany most likely) and Australia (weirdly enough). I am not ruling out Canada, but I know too little about their abilities in that field. Millions more and the list goes on. America dropped well over $5 billion a year on my recent watch alone. And all this before you realise the blunders that signify the USS Zumwalt with its $4 billion expense and the massive drop in abilities. Just to be clear, I am no naval expert, but I dit get a degree in ships engineering and navigation in 1979, so I am not totally in the dark here. The USS Blue Ridge that launched in 1970 outperforms it by a lot and the cost of that rubber ducky is a mere 5% of the failure that the USS Zumwalt represents. I reckon the idea that a congress would not order the smart bullets that the Zumwalt needs (at $800,000 per bullet) might have been the wake up call some people needed. In that environment we get to the second linked article.
The second article is from the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2023/may/18/us-debt-ceiling-crisis-republicans) and here there is another side. I do not agree. You see, we can listen to the emotional ‘The US debt ceiling crisis is more proof of Republicans’ cynicism and bad faith’. Here I am on the Republican side. There is a folly to let 31 trillion fester and fester to something more. This is a pox on both houses and it has been for well over 25 years when a tax overhaul was needed and we all hear the same BS. Too hard, too complex. Well, they are close to default on whatever they have left and as Disney goes towards the EU they will open more doors. IBM, Adobe, Amazon, Google and Microsoft are already diversifying leaving the US with nothing (well almost nothing). And as they alienated the few allies left they see an exodus to China, China of all places.
This is the act of stupidity, stupidity on both houses that would not act when they could and now they are in patters of indecision and they are all trying to find fat jobs in global corporations before the house collapses and it is close to collapsing. This, (and a few related items) was why I tried to sell my IP to the Middle East. In the first you go where the money is. In the second you find a place where you can enjoy your golden years. Because as I see it the US will be a very dangerous place to stay soon enough. Over 200 million desperate people? Yes, that is not a place for me and when the energy shortages hit it will get a lot worse soon enough, they had options there too, but they squandered those options in the last 5 years.
So whilst everyone is pointing at me stating that I am the stupid one (a fair thought to have) consider that my IP was right in at least two cases, optionally two more that are now evolving. Yet I have a few more and they are all destined to go towards places like Huawei and Tencent technologies. And in all honestly between nothing and few crumbs, ill take the crumbs, especially if that results in a view like below.
This is not my 39 coins of silver. It is merely a retirement dream that could optionally be true. And what would you do when you have the choice between what I choose and a retirement home without resources? Because that is what the US (EU and UK too) created with their ego driven decision tree. Dousing the mouse? When was that ever a good idea, especially when it decides to cancel a billion dollar expansion? Will it go to Euro Disney? With the economic setting the French have, that might be a realistic option for the minions of Walt Disney, and the US? Well it made its own bed, to bad for them that as the others leave that sinking ship well over 275,000,000 Americans will be caught in the middle. They had their options and they voted, or they did not vote and lost their right to complain.
The CBC had two articles last night, the first one I dealt with in the previous tory. This one can be found (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cse-candidates-hiring-cyber-1.6426275) ‘Ottawa needs more codebreakers — but spy agency says finding them isn’t easy’ and that is not even half the story. It is not a Canadian issue, it is a global issue. So when we see “Canada’s electronic spy agency, the Communications Security Establishment, is set to receive a large influx of funding to launch cyber operations and ward off attacks on government servers, power grids and hospitals.” It’s always nice to receive funding. But the reality is a little harder. I spoke about part of this in ‘Red flags’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/02/24/red-flags/) there were too many red flags and they are eager to charge a fair penny. Summits, courses and in some cases you do not even need an IT education, but a bachelor education is expected. It is a Wild Wild Cyber West out there and the problem is that there are too few stages where we can separate the good from the shallow. So when we see “CSE, which gathers and decodes signals intelligence and is also in charge of technology security for the government, says it receives 10,000 to 15,000 job applications per year. But only about one or two candidates out of 100 applicants go on to be hired after the skills testing and background security checks.” We see part of the problem. Have you seen it? It is seen in “about one or two candidates out of 100 applicants go on to be hired after the skills testing and background security checks”, the funnel needs inverting. Instead of seeking in the same place, seek somewhere else. Seek in the military and governmental technical support places. Seek in the places you overlook and hire these people. It is nice to hire that one bright light. We all want that, but who considered hiring the 20-50 that can overcome the ‘background security checks’ then start TEACHING them. Out of the 50 you educate whilst they are employed in several places you end up with 10-25 people ready to take the challenge instead of relying on the 1-2 candidates. When you need 1500 of them, my approach makes sense. Yes, you can try to get to the techies from the University of Toronto, but so is commercial land and they pay a lot better, so you need to hope to get the few with a calling, or you open the stage to a larger group and set them in all kinds of governmental fields, where there is a large shortage too. All sides that needs attending too and not all will end with the CSE, GCHQ or whatever Australia and New Zealand have, but all these governments have large shortages including their Cyber police and a few other places. It is time to change the way hiring is done all over the Commonwealth field because they are all coming up short and having different divisions that have shortages, so why are they not taking a hard look at what else is possible? If not these places will all end up in a bidding war like they saw in the 90’s and they will come up short again. Oh and whilst Amazon is desperately seeking 250,000 people and where do you think they will look next? The second plan (my crazy wild idea) gives the people a long term plan, long term employment and a larger setting of choice with one application instead of 5-15 applications.
But this is only possible when some people take a long hard look at what they used to do and see what COULD be done. 750 application runs, or 60 application runs, what makes more sense? I will let you decide.
To understand this piece, we need to consider the meaning, when we use conjecture we imply and mean “an opinion or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information”, the media tens to be in this state well over 90% of the time. They call it something else, something like ‘from sources who revealed this under condition of anonymity’, or perhaps you have heard the statement ‘people close to the matter revealed to us’, yet it remains conjecture, the information was not complete, it almost never is. So when the Middle East Eye handed its readers the headline ‘Can Saudi Arabia develop a major domestic arms industry by 2030?’ Early this morning (18 hours ago), I had to think this through. I saw the setting last year, or the year before and I shrugged at it. You see ‘a major domestic arms industry’ is generic, too generic. Yet the setting is interesting as it will remove billions in revenue from the EU and the US. This after all the BS the US and the European nations gave them is actually refreshing. But the generic side remains. It is hand weapons, armoured vehicles, naval vessels, airforce crates (an old term for airplanes) the list goes on and they cannot have it all, but a nation like Saudi Arabia could set in motion armoured vehicles and hand weapons. I want to continue, yet lets take a look the article (at https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-develop-national-arms-industry-vision-2030) first. We get to see “Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI) – a state-owned defence company – set up a joint venture with the US aerospace and defence giant Lockheed Martin, which, according to a SAMI statement, “will develop localised capabilities by transferring technology and knowledge, and by training a Saudi workforce in manufacturing products for, and providing services to, the Saudi armed forces”” is point number one. Then we get “Riyadh has successfully been able to divert some money formerly earmarked for imports to developing domestic alternatives and has reaped the benefit in terms of Saudis employed, but the goal of going from two percent domestic spending in 2018 to 50 percent domestic spending by 2030 is unrealistic if Riyadh wants to maintain its capabilities and maintain an arsenal of the best equipment,” she said” which they get from Emily Hawthorne, Stratfor’s Middle East and North Africa analyst. Yet I am not entirely convinced. I agree that 50% will be a tall order, I am not sure if 50% can be reached by 2030, too much needs to happen. Yet 2035? Is that out of reach? I am not convinced. You see, we all focus on one side, but this entire enterprise has two sides and we seemingly forget that. You see point one gives us ‘training a Saudi workforce in manufacturing products’, my issue is that this is a focal point not a destination. You see, the military is a destination, The focal point of that workforce needs to grow beyond that. To see this we need to look back at WW1, yes that long back! You see no matter how amazing the Sopwith Camel was (I think the New Zealand Airforce still might have a few), it came from the Sopwith Pup. A plane that was introduced by Sopwith Aviation Company in 1916, during the war, yet the company was founded on 15 December 1913 before WW1, implying that the design was altered for war, which makes perfect sense. That timeline shows that there is a larger stage to any plane, often used for war later on, that premise changed as the arms industry saw the massive benefits of wealth during WW2. It changed nearly everything. The arms industryu continued, but came from something else and it also came from a direct need. For the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (as my personal conjecture goes), it is in one part to strengthen national defence and it needs to diminish import in this area. A stage the others never had, they were always about the export. I tried to hide that clue in an earlier story named ‘The impact of insanity’ on January 20th 2019 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/01/20/the-impact-of-insanity/), the clue was “The idea came from a famous Dutch bank robber named Aage M (70’s)”, it was a clue, because outside of the Netherlands this man and his book would be widely unknown. I used an engineering solution and made it into a stealth weapon (we all have a bit of Alfred Nobel in us). The secondary clue is seen now (which was unintended), but in the original story I did write “Yet, the brain needs nourishment, in my case it is music, I found out that different scores, will set my mind in different directions and it is not set in the style of music, Whilst one album gave me the brain jump to get me to find the Zumwalt pounder (initially merely a solution to take down the Iranian navy), it was David Bowie, and his album ‘the Next day’ that pushed me to make an initial design of the Elder Scrolls X (formerly known as ES6). I never figured out why it happened, merely that it does”, the underlying part I that other elements drive us to push other areas forward, the Military push is NEVER from the military, it comes from somewhere else, and in this case it is most often civilian needs. We look at the internet and decentralised computing (as DARPA brought it), but the stage is almost never in that direction. It is a business need that fuels a consumer drive and it then becomes a military option. That is more often the case. So look and consider Saudi Arabia, or as the fat cats say, a lovely large sandbox. This sandbox has it own approach, its own needs, elements and drives. We in the west think we know, but there is too much we do not and cannot know.
So I give you an alternative, we tend to seek an understanding of what is available, yet what is the stage of observation? We look at planes, we look at drones, but what if we take this in another direction? What if we redesign a much older concept?
So consider the previous image and consider the Battle of Fleurus (1794) where they were used first. In those days they had to be big, but today, with what we have in electronics, we could suffice with something that could be found at Toys-R-Us. Did SAMI ever consider (perhaps they did) to use a whole range of stealth kites? We tend to look at it as something like
Yet that was then, that was civilian, so who considered redesigning that kite in dark colours, make it more stealth like and give it its lightweight electronics that allow for a 25 mile observation with a 5G connection to its base station? No fuel, a silent observer in the night and one most ground forces will not see until it is too late. The Middle East is a different stage, its theatre of war is on grounds seldom seen in the west, as such different solutions will work. A thought that I have not seen explored by DARPA (speculatively) and Raytheon/Northrop Grumman (less speculatively). We all need to consider that the offered information comes from conjecture (even mine) as such I have n clear image of what actually is, but I can see where others did not look (which gave me my 5G IP) and now SAMI has another venue for investigations on what could be done to spend less in other nations (feel free to financially support this poor poor blogger) and consider what else no one has been looking at, because in one of the other stories I left another link, which involves two valves that apparently do not yet exist and that opens up other venues of export. It even gave me a third idea just now. It reflects on an old premise that started the origin of Ceramic glaze, it had different functions, now consider the two-part epoxy adhesive, consider that if it is in two parts, it is an adhesive, yet what if the container it holds has two liquids as well, separate innocent, but if you remove the separation you get a secondary reaction, a chemical reaction that does something else, we now have a nice little chemical detonator, no danger there, until it changes the compound it reacts too, we now have a different setting. All elements that have been abandoned for larger and more accurate electronics. Yet what happens when we change the need of electronics? They need batteries and they tend to have their own flaws, chemicals do not, we are all about relying on the latest ‘electronic’ solutions all whilst the people forgot to look at the other solutions. You see “It has some disadvantages too, e.g. higher cost per detonator and the need for intensive training for users”, when timing is not essential, chemical detonators have their own benefits and in mass production they are cheaper and the need for a larger trained workforce and assembly environment becomes less so, all elements that are not what the seller wants to give you, but the buyer can rejoice when it is faced that way. It does not apply all over the place, but the question becomes, what allows for a different curve that allows for a real application of reducing the investment a cost of developing an arms industry that is applicable to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by 2030, there were two elements, the first is ‘develop a major domestic arms industry by 2030’, the second is ‘spending around 50 percent of its military budget on local sources’, yet that could be seen in two parts as well, spend 50% less of its budget and spend amount X on local sources. If $10B is spend in the US and you can reduce it by Spending $7B less and $2B on local sources the trip is near complete. Consider in that the cost of a US drone (like the MQ-1 Predators) all whilst a refurbishes Kite might cost no more than $15,000. So we get $40,000,000 versus $15,000. Yes the MQ-1 Predators can do a lot more, but how effective is that in Saudi Arabia? Most look at how cool you can fly for $40,000,000, all whilst 15 kites can cover a lot more ground and these groups merely have to observe and guide the MQ-1 Predators to its destination. It is conjecture that we know what is out there, all whilst the term conjecture implies we never knew. Be honest, how many of you considered the deployment of a stealth Kite? A device that uses no fuel, makes no sound and in the dark desert is seemingly as invisible as the night.
All this whilst we need to consider that as SAMI becomes more successful, the US and the EU will miss out on billions each year, a station that they themselves had a hand in creating. In that time I came up with two additional novel ideas (that might not work). Have a great day!
We do not need to look far to see that cut backs are more than just the talk of the town. They have been the talk of nations for a long time, and we have seen more than one system discussed when it comes to the need for overspending.
So, when many read about the fact that the military overspend again we might not have looked to be too overly surprised. It is however the proverbial straw that is breaking the camel’s back. This is what was said on Sky News on Feb 28th “Britain’s Ministry of Defence has been slammed after a report showed between 2009 and 2011 it bought STG 1.5 billion ($A2.24 billion) worth of equipment more than it used.“
The article was short, to the point and ended with “The ministry is to introduce controls that it hopes will reduce spending on inventory by STG 500 million a year by 2015.“
So, the British consumer will be confronted with taxation on overspending by almost 2 billion until that time? How is that fair. This is not the end of it. There is a lot more. This is the clear part where we are confronted with overspendings; however, there are a few more issues at play.
The New York Times published a story in July 2006 named “Pentagon Struggles With Cost Overruns and Delays“. In this example they went over the costs of the F-22a Raptor. It was a track from 1991 until 2010 that showed a massive amount of overspending. The response as stated in the New York Times was “We must transform the way the department works and what it works on, he said. It could be said that it’s a matter of life and death — ultimately, every American’s.“
So was that an answer? It seems not. Because that same story repeats itself when we look at headlines involving the F-35. “$24 billion British budget blow-out in black hole F-35 project“.
It seems that the boys in uniform seem oblivious to words like ‘common sense’, ‘budgets’, ‘overspending’ and you know, words of that general direction. Now I am all for a good defence, yet the parties involved seem to be either completely academically ineffective (incompetent seems too hard a word), or those paying are really lacking a certain level of backbone. Especially when budgets are overstretched the way they are. Am I having a go at the Australian and UK admin soldiers? I am not sure. Who made these decisions? Who allowed for these levels of overspending? These are serious questions that need answers and it needs more then investigation, it requires ACTUAL actions being taken. I am not talking about some political inquest wasting even more time and money. No! Defence needs to take a look at their laundry and fix this. It seems clear and shown that this needs fixing on several levels.
In the meantime solutions must be found, especially when it is clear that almost all parties in the commonwealth have to tighten the belt on budgets all over the place. It seems very unfair that even though the military are to most the visible part to defend a nation, the people placing their lives in harm’s way on a daily basis are having their budgets cut severely.
You know, I have a nice idea, right out of the extreme right field. Lockheed Martin donates 1% of paid costs by the DOD to the Metropolitan police as a show of good faith. Not all will be happy with this idea, but several will be less unhappy and the way the costs are cut especially to the police departments. It seems only fair. Who knows, Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe might arrive in the office on a Monday morning holding on to a cheque and wearing a large smile (be not afraid if that happens). The same could be done for the RAAF. I reckon Commissioner Scipione might be happy to know that in the end, overspending almost 30% per F-35 unit (an unacceptable amount of overspending per unit) the police force will get a small shiny future. The other option is for the RAF to order 14 less F-35’s and the RAAF orders 2-3 less and these police departments get those funds directly.
There is however a deeper part to those rumours. Is the F-35 too overpriced and are we moving to a previous model (the F-22)? Even though several sources implied certain noises, there is no real knowledge at present (or better stated, known to me) that this is actually happening. It would be interesting as the NY Times reported that the F-22 had its last delivery in 2010. If so, should we pay full price for a model taken out of production? Would you pay sticker price for a 2010 Toyota? This seems more than a little unfair. Not to mention that we seem to reward/ignore a blatant budget overrun for two planes by the same company. A ‘ploy’ they seem to have handled since 1991. That means they did not seem to have cleaned up their act for two decades.
So we have two issues.
1. Commonwealth armies seem to be overspending by a lot and on needless things. 2. Commonwealth armies are confronted and left with much higher bills by their suppliers.
I am not claiming that the military are doing this on an intentional basis to waste money, but it stands to reason that we should ask questions when the size of the British forces is set around 225,000 and there seems to be an annual overdraft of 800 million dollars. The Australian Defence forces are not without fault either. This was mentioned in an article by the SMH, however I personally thought that this article asked more questions on the numbers they reported, then on the actual issue.
There is another side to this, and this was voiced by President Obama on Feb 19th as mentioned in the Guardian. “Obama warns Congress over spending cuts: ‘People will lose their jobs‘”. This is not an unfair statement. Yet the issue that is not mentioned is that overall, the profit margin for those companies is often a lot larger than most commercial companies seem to be left with, and THAT part seems to have never been curbed. That was illustrated in an article in Aviation week by Joe Anselmo on May 18, 2012. There it was quoted that “A Wall Street research firm says defense contractors should be able to maintain their profit margins even as Pentagon spending declines“. That seems to prove the thoughts that others have as well as myself. So, these are not unique thoughts. These are thoughts that have been in play for a long time, so when we are looking at recessions and budget issues, it seems to me that there is at least one player in town who gets to play with a stacked deck.
I hope the message is getting through. There is a massive amount of needless overspending and there currently seems to be no planned solution to properly curb this enthusiastic method of an open wallet policy.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 