When it pours

When it pours, an umbrella seems pointless. Yes, that was not the stage you imagined, was it. When it rains we rely on an umbrella to keep us dry, when it pours a little less so. You see pouring rain tends to come with strong winds, and most umbrella’s are not designed to deal with both. 

So when I see ‘Israel formally declares war, approves ‘significant’ steps to retaliate for Hamas attack’ (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-gaza-hamas-hezbollah-1.6990466) I wonder what else is in play. I see the speculations by the media. ‘It’s a Russian Ploy’, ‘It’s an anti Saudi-Israel ploy’. Now, both are possible, both are also likely but consider that some sources give us that 3,500 rockets have been fired. This was an event that was planned. This was not some knee jerk event. Consider where you can store 3500 rockets, consider that Mossad is trying to monitor Gaza 24:7. These elements combined give us the need for crunching data and intelligence. So whilst the CBC gives us “The Israeli government formally declared war Sunday and gave the green light for “significant military steps” to retaliate against Hamas for its surprise attack from the Gaza Strip a day earlier, as the total death toll on both sides surpassed 1,100 and thousands have been wounded.” No one is sitting down to consider that this happened leaving Mossad doing the penguin with their pants on their ankles. And we can understand that Israel formally declared war. Yet, the time-line does not match up. Yes, we see that Hamas feels threatened by the normalisation of ties between the state of Israel and the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. In equal measure there is a need for Russia to get focus away from them (as they get bitch slapped by Paddington bear). So both speculations have merit on the greater scheme of things and perhaps both are in play. 

I was there in 1982, I saw the mess there was and I feel tired that this shit is still going on. It feels like my life as part of the UNSC was a waste of time. It doesn’t make me a better source of intelligence, I merely see more than what the media gives us. It also makes me wonder when stress points are added to Israel, Eilat and Beer Sheva are Israeli hubs. When the rockets start focussing on these two points the game will alter, and I tactically speaking these two places are not out of reach. If there is anything to say about Hamas is that they tend to be creative. If they have the ability to hide and shoot 3500 missiles, 400 drones in two droves on these two pressure points is not unimaginable. Especially if Russia is part of that equation. I reckon that they could see that handing 400 drones to Hamas will be a stronger message than keeping them aimed at Ukrainian targets. In all this there is one clear part. My view is pure speculation, I have no data supporting my view. Yet I feel that merely focussing on missiles is not a good idea for Israel. Hamas knows that there will be retaliations. So whatever comes next, it will be their goal to make it hurt. It seems strange, but after 42 years, I see now that this will never end in my lifetime and if I had kids, they would not see the end of this either. It is almost a version of Harry Potter, one cannot live whilst the other is still alive. It is not positive, but it is what it is. In 1982 I had the dastardly hope that I was part of setting a stage that would end hostilities. I now know that it was foolish to think that I had any positive impact there. 

We all learn and we all learn at our own speed. No matter how we see this, consider that this coming week will give a better view on how things around the west bank will escalate.

Try to enjoy the week that is on the horizon for those west of India.