Will you feel frisky?

I actually got a bit upset over some of the responses I saw. They weren’t hostile mind you, but too many people are thinking that this will sort itself out. It will not, it is too late for that. 

You see, yesterday I gave part of the solution, but I could have given you a little more. As such lets look at the first building. 

This is an average building in Silicon Valley, many exist. When you see the red box, you see the lighter panels, they give no view, they are there to hide (suspected) concrete. These panels could all (or phased all) be replaced with solar panels. Will it solve everything? No, it’s too late for that, but the stage of replacing the way power is used in California is essential. In this if we can transform building by building and lower the power needs places will be on route to do something real. They have been sitting on their hands for close to three years and the hardship is about to hit the fan. And this is merely one example, Silicon Valley is not the evil, the evil (if there is one) is a group of politicians and administrators sitting on their hands (as I personally see it). And it goes far beyond the US. 

Within Greater London, the administrative area governed by Boroughs there are approximately 42,000 “buildings” greater than 18m high. Consider the lowering of drain we see if 420 buildings are transformed. It will not solve everything, but we need to move now and London (New York too) are on the forefront of everyones mind, their winters are harsh. So how many people are allowed to freeze to death? Because that is where we are headed too.

Here we see a modern building in London, I put an arrow towards the light panels that are seemingly not functional, one building with the option of 2 times (back of the building too) 7 (floors) times 28 panels. That could make this building to a much larger extent energy neutral, but energy neutral might not be enough, what happens when that building batter can fuel the lights in the area too? It is lights, warm water heaters, coolers. We will not get everything done, but we can get a lot done and the Tesla battery is central in that solution. As I stated yesterday, Austin is another place with hardship coming their way, not the cold of winter (or so I believe), but energy issues will be clearly seen. Austin Texas has 3,675 buildings, optionally lowering the power needs all over the place. The biggest issue is New York. 

All partial solutions. And for those making claim for a complete solution, there isn’t one. All talk talk talk and no action, as such nations are finding themselves in a nasty predicament and the Elon Musk battery was a start to decrease pressure, and where is it installed? Nowhere, and that sets the stage of what comes next. Bloomberg gave us 2 days ago ‘A Hot, Deadly Summer Is Coming With Frequent Blackouts’ (at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-05-22/summer-blackouts-bring-deadly-risk-as-heatwaves-grip-the-globe) You think that is bad? Consider a blackout when it is -2/-7 in winter, that will keep you frisky (and optionally freeze you to death). In some cases it might be too late, however New York seemingly has 43.000 buildings, 300 of them are Skyscrapers taller than 15 metres. These are but three places. It gets to be an interesting pool when we consider Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston. All places that could have started upgrading 2 years ago, all places sitting on their hands, or installing cladding to kill dozens of people in the process.

I am afraid that for a lot of people it might be too late. Some sources give that in New York the death stats on hypothermia are around 1320 a year, how much do these numbers need to go up for people to start moving? There have been clear warnings for 3 years, this might be a year when things come to a disastrous point, although we could argue that if enough people die in New York apartment prices might go down, but that is me, behind every silver lining is a new dark cloud forming.

So what is the best option? Anything is better than inaction and we have seen too much inaction for too long and in too many places. This issue is not merely an American one. It is a European one as well and the UK will be hit harder and harder as their supplier (Vattenfal) is most likely to fall short. The UK is increasingly relying on importing energy and in the current political climate it will not be that clear if there is enough, but winter will sort it out, it usually does.

In all this there are plenty of solar panel suppliers, but there will be a shortage, it is the Tesla battery that is the larger issue. I reckon Elon Musk will be eager to sell 100,000 batteries, but does he have them? Can they be made in time? All fair questions and I do not have the answers. I merely look around and remember the story of a farmer named McBain. McBain knew the railroad would pass through Sweetwater one day and he saw ahead. He was sitting on the only water for hundred of miles around. It did get him killed, but the setting we saw in Once upon a time in the West is now seen in the form of energy, Elon Musk has the IP for the one essential part of solving or reducing the energy crises we see in the US, in the UK and in the rest of Europe. He is sitting just fine, and whilst the people who needed to do something are keeping themselves immobile, the pressure goes from bad to worse and even as some houses have taken precautions, actions on a much larger scale are needed. In this consider Japan. They need 37,000,000 people to reduce energy needs. Try that in the US (or UK for that matter), so when it hits these two places it will be nasty and it will not subdue any day soon, because as one system fails, a domino tsunami will break system after system and there is no way to tell where it will end, the only thing you are likely to hear is wishful thinking. That is my personal view, but considering I was on this page three years ago, I feel decently sure that the fallout will be harsh, mush more so than anyone expects and it is not the summer I fear (although it will be awful for many), it is winter that will truly add to the casualties of houses and participants.

So you go check and make sure your family has options.