Exit Fee, Brexit Fee

We all knew that there would be backlashes regarding Brexit on a few levels. Now we can argue whether it is legal, ethical or even comprehensible that you must pay an exit fee, but over the years in many places. Especially Gyms, you are faced with the need that you have a renewal and a minimum fee that is covered per year. If the gym delivered on its entrance promises than there aren’t too many objections you can make. The same amounts to your mobile provider who under contract will make you pay the whole lot if you leave within the contract term. So also, the issue rises as the UK is leaving the EU. That part is not really in question. The amount would always have been a path of negotiation, but overall we all saw that part coming. So initially the news ‘UK must pay for Brexit or EU is in ‘deep trouble’, says German minister‘ (at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/29/uk-must-pay-for-brexit-or-eu-is-in-deep-trouble-says-german-minister), was not overly a surprise. The added ‘deep trouble‘ was also never an issue. I can do you one better. I made that prediction on May 15th 2013 in the article ‘A noun of non-profit‘ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2013/05/15/a-noun-of-non-profit/), which is in a time when the press on a global scale would remain in denial that this was realistic. Oh how the mighty get slain!

It is however the subtitle of the article that should wake you up: “Sigmar Gabriel warns UK must take responsibility for vote that has left Europe as an ‘unstable continent’“, to which my initial response would be “Is Mister Gabriel slightly non-mentally comprehensive of the mess you economy ministers all over the EC bestowed upon Europe?” It is also in my diplomatic and subtle view that until close to a dozen economy ministers are held accountable and serve actual prison sentences for squandering funds, for over inflating their economy and switching to managed bad news up to 6 months later, whilst we all knew that none of these forecasts were anywhere near realistic. So until those people are in ACTUAL prisons, the UK cannot be held responsible for the irresponsible acts of others. I mean, let’s face it. I saw this coming 3 years ago and I do not have an economy degree. So how stupid are Sigmar Gabriel and his economy cronies to begin with? Then we get the quote “Gabriel warned if the issue was badly handled and other member countries followed Britain’s lead, Europe would go “down the drain”“, which translates to Sigmar blaming the bad track the EC has as France and the Netherlands (and at least two others) are now seriously considering how stupid the Status Quo path was to begin with. Pretty much another issue I have been raising for 3 years. Or as one might diplomatically phrase it: ‘It really sucks to be the Dow Jones Indexes’ bitch!‘, a lesson several nations are about to experience a lot sooner than they bargained for when the second player exits the EU. In addition I can also report that that is also the moment the DJI will look a lot less healthy than it did in 2009, so rough seas are coming.

So when we see the response from Angela Merkel, which was “Rather than rushing into activities, we should perhaps first take time to think about what we, as the 27 countries, must do better“. My sober response would be ‘How about nearly everything?‘ I still think that pouring a trillion plus into some stimulus was not the greatest idea to have, to do it a second time is just plain stupid. Especially when none of the 27 nations have any funds to truly support this, and as per recently, neither does FIFA, so that ship sailed too! So as there was news last week on how resilient the Eurozone was, means also that the claim by Sigmar Gabriel should be seen as null and void, so when after 12 weeks of stimulus (or in Feb 2017, whichever comes first) we start seeing less optimistic news that some expectations had not been met, will they throw Mario Draghi into prison for intentional wasting of funds? Of course not! He is just doing what the Americans want him to do, to create a vacant non-realistic sign of economic increase. You see, that part will happen when you spend 60 billion a month for the second time around. By the way, does anyone know how much those economies went forward after the spending stopped? Not that much, because a second Kickstarter program is required. Oh wait, that program will end next month, so as they need more, can we not see that this is not a solution?

There is one nice quote that Angela Markel gives: “member states must listen to each other carefully and avoid rushing into policy decisions. If you do it wrong from the beginning and you don’t listen – and act just for the sake of acting – then you can make many mistakes.“, which is acceptable and likely to be very correct, yet in that same light, this mess is because the EEC at large (with Germany as a major frontrunner) did whatever they could to keep the Status Quo, which was the first big mistake. Clever accounting has not done anything other than misrepresent the European economy at large. And as Status Quo events go, The Japanese economy who have been trying stimulus for many years is still not up to speed. It is Bloomberg who on August 15th stated (at https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-15/there-s-a-welcome-thaw-in-the-opposition-to-fiscal-stimulus), “U.S. public debt has risen sharply since 2008, and demographic trends will keep pushing it higher in the longer term — but with long-term interest rates at their current depressed levels, borrowing for public investment has never been more affordable. If the money is spent wisely, it will spur growth, which would help to lighten the projected debt load“, really? So not only can the US not pay for the interest at present, it is borrowing even more for public investments. There is nothing against public investments, yet what I see is the fact that not only can the US not afford it, there is on this world not enough funds to cover for only the US and Japanese debts, so where is all that money coming from, because the impact will be massive. That event might not be far away, as Arnaud Montebourg, France’s former Minister of Industrial Renewal is now starting to side with Marine Le Pen on Frexit. President Hollande might be partially blind to this, but former French president Nicolas Sarkozy is no longer that certain. This means that 2 of the 3 parties are considering Frexit, making the referendum a decent certainty. The anger that France has in regards to both Youth unemployment (well over 22%), as well as the terrorist attacks, we might not be able to tell which factor is the strongest here, but both have an impact. Almost 2 weeks before the Brexit call, France had a pro referendum number over 60%, I cannot clearly see where the French stand at present, but with President Hollande not making any statements on that subject that those numbers have ‘dwindled’ implies that the number is likely to be decently past 50% and as we see more politicians there mention the chance of Referendums (other than Marine Le Pen) is an indication that the next large election (France), would soon follow with a referendum call, so then we are at the place where Sigmar Gabriel accuses the UK of, for the economic setting of the EU. An accusation that can be countered quite clearly and decently easy.

So when you consider whether I am just stupid and my view holds no water (a fair point of view). I would counter, because I added the references and the evidence. When you wonder if I am truly that super intelligent I counter equally with the fact that my University grades are mere passes with an occasional Credit or Distinction and none of them in economy, so there are more clever people out there, but I reckon that digging into this was never their priority.

So why is the press not properly investigating (in opposition to reporting on quotes) regarding that side of the events Europe and the rest of the world faces?

I’ll let you ponder that!

 

 

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