Data is all

There have been a few oppositions to two of the articles on India and covid I wrote in the last week. I stand by my view, but the opposition is there. For the most they are merely echoing other sources and that is fine. So let’s take another look with new sources, very credible sources.

About that island
In the far lower right, to the left of New Zealand is the island of Australia. It is a large island and had 25 million people. There SBS gave us ‘One new community COVID-19 case recorded in NSW as authorities hunt mystery source of infection’, it is the quote “Health authorities have been unable to find a link between a returned overseas traveller who harboured the same genomic sequencing as a Sydney couple who tested positive”. I do not know and there is no evidence that there is foul play afoot. So there is AT LEAST one link between the two, but there is no way to find it at present. This is a place with a mere 25,000,000 people. Now consider India with its 1,300,000,000 people. This implies (emphasis on imply) that India has at least 52 undiscovered cases, now consider the image I posted of a market in India taken last October (and below).

Now consider that at least one such a person is in such a market, this implies that tomorrow at least 50-75 will get it, after that the numbers go the wrong way really fast. It still takes time to get there, as such the dip in numbers as well as the statement “India may have Covid-19 under control by February, says top scientist” (source: Straits Times January 2, 2021). It was the obvious very debatable statement  “While there is no definitive single reason, epidemiologists and scientists believe a key factor is that dense urban centres, which were the worst affected, now have some level of community protection”, really? Community protection? Where is that now with 21,000,000 sick and 230,000 no longer living and it will get worse, but on the plus side, they will beat the USA in one event, the number of dead people, which was pretty much a given with 1.3 billion people and no lockdown. 

But it is not all bad news, as the Guardian reported “medical experts and international human rights groups, including the United Nations, have called for an immediate reversal of the Biosecurity Act determination, I am on the fence in this case, yet in the end thousands more will needlessly die, so rent prices in Mumbai might go down a twitch.

The problem is that too many cases go undetected, there was news earlier this year that Dutch scientists had found the the quick tests gives a false negative in 40% of the cases, at what point will you realise that a much larger danger exists? There is a larger problem, the Indian government did not act when they could and they want us now to take up the slack. It is hard to chastise them as a nation with 1.3 billion will have unique issues with a situation like this, I do not oppose that, but there is months of data showing that the entire situation was mis managed, and some excuse like “now have some level of community protection” does not hold water in any way or shape. And when we are given a truck load of emotional responses like “Vamshi is furious that the information he provided about his mother’s condition was enough for his exit exemption but not enough for her to be allowed to travel to Australia to stay with them”, I wonder if they needed a bloody slide ruler to work out the numbers. This disease KILLS! It is that simple and containment is a first need for EVERY government. Data is all and it shows a picture that is not so nice, and it will not be resolved in India quickly. Any message that a short time and a short course towards any solution is found is non existent. We need to avoid the media with BS emotional sides, we need to rely on the cold numbers and the ones India are giving us do not add up, yet the media and several others are not questioning that part. In this the NPR (at https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/04/30/992451165/india-is-counting-thousands-of-daily-covid-deaths-how-many-is-it-missing) is giving us ““There’s a shortage of coronavirus tests. Nobody’s getting tested! So the government’s numbers for our district are totally wrong,” he told NPR on a crackly phone line from his village. “If you’re able to get tested, results come after five days.””, so how come NPR is nearly the only one who gives us some of the goods? It does not mean that NPR is the more reliable source, but it does explain a much larger part of the problem, when numbers are delayed and ‘mis-categorised’ we will unlikely ever know what is the true down low of India and the covid numbers. 

Data is all, but when that data is (I expect) intentionally ‘adjusted’, we will not know what the actual situation in India is and in that respect, shutting down ALL transport to and from India might be close to the only option left. Yes, the UN will object but will not be able to cater to the time needs of the dangers, but then they might also need to wrote another essay for Jeff Bezos, so their time will be used no matter how they sail. 

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