Tag Archives: Covid

EOYS (End Of Year Stage)

We are all in a stage where we try to make sense of the choices we made over the last year. For some it is the elections, for some it is Brexit, for some it is COVID, and others have other matters, mot of us will have a blend of all, and nearly all will have COVID in the equation. So when I stated in earlier articles that the lockdown is to some degree pointless, we are hereby given the setting in ‘Woman on super-yacht that arrived in Cairns one of two people in Queensland with COVID-19’ (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-24/coronavirus-queensland-super-yacht-woman-northern-beaches-man/13010536) where we see “She said the crew of the Lady E, which sailed to Australia from the Maldives, was not being helpful with contact tracing information. But the ship’s captain, James Kennedy, said in a statement that he and his crew were complying with all requests”, as such I see the opposites ‘not being helpful with contact tracing information’, as well as ‘he and his crew were complying with all requests’. Infection finds  way, there will always be someone that escapes attention because some people ‘forgot’ to look in that direction. Then we also get ‘cluster grows by nine local cases in NSW after a record 60,000 tests’, so after an additional 1% of the population of Sydney is tested up to 9 new cases are found, and people still debate and oppose that the disease will find a way? So are there still 900 unconfirmed cases in Sydney, and if that is the case, if that confirmation comes in 2-3 days, how many more will have the disease then? It is a real setting, a realistic fear and an absolute realistic case of worry. 

Yes, I worry, but some set worry into a larger stage of fear, which is a wrong stage to fill, there is every chance that that I might get it and the percentage is that there is a 3% chance I might die. Yet the truth is that there is a 97% chance I will not, good odds, especially compared to a lottery ticket, or blindfolded crossing the road on regent street. And others are debating, or they are agreeing that electing a stupid fat guy into the White House, the only man on planet with a haircut worse than Boris Johnson (Prime Minister of the United Kingdom) was not the greatest idea anyone could have had. Even as a Republican I agree. I would diplomatically state it as “John McCain would have been 20 times the President that President Trump ever could be, even dead he would still be 20 times the President that this current President could ever hope to be”. This is the stage that the US had signed up for and whatever gains they made in the middle east, pardoning the sentences of the Blackwater guards will have larger repercussions, as I see it the president is making sure that the US will have no forwards momentum the next 4 years, a stupid person, driven by self-righteous motives like “If I cannot be president, no one can” is setting a long term stage where nothing can be resolved, and in this people still wonder why I was considering selling my IP to a Chinese based corporation?  

We are in the end of year stage, but there is close to zero positivity to show, in that stage, as negativity adds up and up to the floor foundation of what we perceive to be some sort of balance, the setting of balance becomes increasingly distasteful. Consider the stage where we see “Slatten, whom prosecutors said started the shooting, was sentenced to life in prison” (source: NPR) gives rise to the stage where government shielded mass murder is now OK, that is how it reads, for the record, I never looked into the matter, I never saw any of the evidence and I read none of the testimonies, yet a court of law found them guilty and so far I have not seen any legal evidence that absolves them. There was a trial and a re-trial, as such I wonder why any president would involve themselves in this manner, and as I personally see it there is a scorched earth approach, which is “a military founded strategy that aims to destroy anything that might be useful to the enemy. Any assets that could be used by the enemy may be targeted, which usually includes obvious weapons, transport vehicles, communication sites, and industrial resources”, a set stage of diplomacy that has consequences, and as I personally see it, President Trump has now inflicted more damage on the United States than Edward Snowden ever has. When we see these actions as well as his reaction to the COVID-19 mess, when the people tally the reported 18,946,472 infected and the 334,824 who died, we see a scary setting by possibly the worst president in American History. And I need to give a clear stage on ‘the reported’, if the UK is in a stage where 3% has been infected, there is every chance that the infections, the reported and the unreported ones, will add up to (speculatively speaking) a little over 32 million making the stage that up to 10% of the US population is infected and matters will get worse soon enough. 

There is a speculative (sort of) wisdom to this, consider that 23% of ALL global infections are in the USA, yet less than 0.01% of the fatalities are shown, we see an unbalanced equation, this is not about age, or better healthcare, this is a setting that is far too unbalanced to make sense, a disease is not intelligent, it is an engine, it travels, infects and moves on, so if one number is one thing and if we agree that 2 out of 3 will make a complete recovery, the numbers are not adding up, optionally the numbers are on a few levels bogus. I remain open to which is which and what is actually happening. But I can give you thins, the numbers are not adding up and that setting is out in the open for anyone to see. 

So whilst we wonder hat is what and which is which, consider that there is a set level, there is at all times some level of discrepancy, there always will be, but for numbers to be off by 98%, that is what I call a numerical and statistical impossibility.

And when we see how the stage is in NSW (Australia) and people on yachts dump infected people in Queensland, consider just how many ships there are and how much infected people are travelling to places where we apparently have no control over the situation, so how many yachts are there in California and Florida, how many in the Mediterranean and how many of them remain unchecked? As such, what will the infected numbers be by on December 29th, January 29th and February 29th, I wonder if there will be any indictments soon thereafter. 

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Creation of moments

What is the value that comes from the creation of the moment? It is a fair question, a question most do not know, mostly never reminiscence on. There I was rewatching NCIS season 2, one moment merely going up into the episode, the next moment a new series/mini series/movie comes into mind. This is not the first time, it has happened close to a dozen times, the frame of creation is one that most cannot fathom, but what happens when it falls into your lap? Would you recognise it? We are so ‘obsessed’ with the eternal, that no one seems to look into the other direction. What happens when we consider that the stories of the Greek gods were mostly true? We see some (Stephen Fry) give rise to one train of thought, even though I haven’t picked up Troy yet, the hardcover looks amazing. But in this, what happens when we consider that Poseidon, Hades and Zeus are close to gods, but what happens when the power of Poseidon changes due to our pollution, what happens when he becomes his version of deranged and strikes out? What happens when in the old days their seat of Olympus was because it was the highest they initially knew, so what happens when they moved to a place higher? What happens to Zeus with pollution? You might think that this is all bollocks and from an academic point of view you could optionally be right. It is about creation, but what happens when creation can no longer happen? Creation of life and creation of thought? It remains a fair question. Some forms of creation is to invoke into others the questions others were too afraid to ask. Minstrels did this all the way back in the 12th century. You see, this also reflects on the now, larger corporations are afraid of the question, but how healthy is meat nowadays? The overuse of antibiotics gives us more and more to worry about. We might shrug our shoulders on “A new report is taking the US beef industry to task for overuse of medically important antibiotics. The report, released yesterday by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), reveals that US cattle producers use more than 40% of all medically important antibiotics—those that are also used in human medicine—sold for use in US livestock, and use them three to six times more intensively than many of their European counterparts”, yet to some extent there is truth to ‘You are what you eat’ in that regard we have mostly become diseased. So how long until there is a visible impact? I wrote about this a few years ago, can we even consider beef, especially when the beef we ate when we were young (60’s) is no longer the same from the beef we see today, the meat makers do not want us to look, they are pretty much scared shitless on the findings there, and I would be too. I am not some vegetarian or vegan. I like my beef just fine, I like sheep like any other (mostly as cutlets). Yet the question is more important than we think, even as too many scientists (most for valid reasons) are not wondering where Covid came from, but it evolves somehow and for the first time in a century is there a visible impact. And when you consider that we will hit the 1,500,000 cadaver marker, we better wake up. When have we seen that flu was a small temporary thing? During WW1 the numbers were skewed and most of us did not know better, but now that we do, can we idly sit by? 

So if Poseidon wanes in the ocean due to pollution, what can we hope for ourselves? In light of us handing over 1,500,000 foot soldiers to Hades, are we so much better? Yet I am not trying to ‘confuse’ science with fiction, however, is there a chance that we limited our view of science for reasons unknown? How many true long term investigations were done on the impact of antibiotics? The maker does not want to look into it, not to the degree we need to look, the seller of beef wants his money, so he is not cooperating, but can we afford that posture? 

Harvard Medical School gave us ‘Antibiotic resistance and the dangers of superbugs’ (Sep 2019), if that is so, did we, through short sightedness create Covid? I am not telling, I am asking. And it is not the weirdest question, only two weeks ago did we get “Identifying the source will be tricky, and investigators will need to grapple with the sensitive political situation”, I do not think it is politically sensitive, it is not merely China, or the United States, it is all of this that created weakness in all of us, especially mothers. How did we look at the advertisements of that crying child and mommy just grasping for the nearest ‘Panadol for Children’? 

I personally believe (and many others do too) that this might seem like a good idea but it could be limiting their immune system, it takes a while to kick in and the body uses pain (and discomfort) to regulate parts of it to some extent. I am not some whack anti-vaxxer, we have seen the good that vaccines do, I have seen the impact on some others that polio did, now it is close to extinct, but we need to see a larger scale, that what strengthen us, and what does not, what merely gives a short term relief only to hit us twice over in the future. I am not advocating against any vaccine, but I am questioning what we are doing to ourselves and is that not what we need to do? If the Iliad gave us the power of us 2000 years ago, why did we abandon some truths? Are the new truths so much better? 

When we look at the setting of Fate (us), Pride (corporations), Hubris (the opponents of corporations), wrath (victims) and consideration of the gods. Most of us tend to forget that Helen of Troy was a daughter of Zeus, as such this setting was larger, we forgot about that. When we consider that Eris (goddess of strife) ended up giving the Apple of Discord to Paris (an older Macintosh model), we optionally see the Iliad s a much larger story where we are pawns in a game that is beyond our scope. It is merely one way to look at it and if this now comes to haunt us through the choices made (pollution) we might realise that we were warned thousands of years ago, we merely decided to ignore that warning, at our own peril mind you.

So as I watched the episode of NCIS where the perpetrator was already dead and the girl was a stage of a larger form of jealousy, I wonder what happened in the end to the apple of discord, especially with a new Apple (G6) coming. Will we take a bite out of that one too, or will we realise that this world is finite and we almost squandered a larger part of it, for much too long. When we consider one more speculation, when we see “Wagyu beef is extremely rich in monounsaturated fatty acids and contains all of the essential amino acids, including omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids”, is that unique to Kobe beef, or is that because we gave up the healthy nutrients because we relied on antibiotics and medication to maximise our profits? I honestly do not know, I am merely asking. It is what one does when creation takes a gander in an unexpected direction. 

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As jobs become available

Yup, there is always good news if we know where to look, even as we see a setting where over 50% of all coronavirus cases are in the USA, India and Brazil, we need to think hard of what numbers are not shown. Even as India has well over 3 times the population of the US, there is no way that the numbers add up, with the US having over 9 million cases and India barely passing 8 million, the stage is not completely seen. The population pressure and environment should give India a lot more than the US, so the stage is not clearly seen. I have less doubts (but some) with Brazil, there are over 5 million there and that number seems off (I am emphasising on seems), when we consider the 211 million people there, the pressures in Rio and Sao Paolo, the number seems low, more important, the mortality rate on Brazil merely seems high, in my personal view, either there are a lot more cases, or the mortality rate is skewed, optionally from connected complications. So as more people die, more jobs open up (one would hope). In this stage we could say that every silver lining is the foundation for a new dark cloud.

These numbers are important, especially as the EU goes into a new lockdown. There is the larger issue. We see Spain and France being at 1.2 and 1.3 million. Nothing wrong with that, but a similar setting of populations is seen in Germany with only 510K sick, these numbers do not add up, especially hen you consider that Germany has 83 million, France has 65 million and Spain has 46 million. The German numbers are as I see them off. This matters, because if the numbers are too surreal, the lockdown will merely be a pro forma exercise that does close to nothing in too many places. The problem is that I can see that these lockdowns are the best we can get until there is an actual vaccine, and there is not date on that. One source gives us “On Tuesday, front-runner Pfizer revealed in an earnings call that the first interim analysis in its Phase 3 clinical trial has not yet occurred. That means there hadn’t yet been enough Covid infections among the trial participants to take a first stab at analysing whether the people randomly assigned to receive vaccine were infected at a lower rate than people who were assigned to get a placebo injection”, so consider that phase three is not done and this needs to come and be confirmed before we have a setting where manufacturing can begin. And it is even earlier ‘the first interim analysis in its Phase 3 clinical trial has not yet occurred’, that implies that we get to a stage where any solution would not be here before January 2021, and that is if the second analyses of clinical trials those who precede towards ‘a vaccine is working’ is well over 8 weeks away, making the earliest stage of manufacturing would start on January 2nd, if a solution if found by coming Monday. Are you feeling frisky yet? And all this before the realisation starts that 2 billion doses will take more than a few days. I got (from Vaccine Europe) “On average, it takes between 12-36 months to manufacture a vaccine before it is ready for distribution” and on top of that Sanofi is one source stating that they can make 2.5 million doses a day. This gets us to the 2 billion shots, taking 800 days to make and that is if everything goes right the first time. So there will be a waiting list that is well over 2 years and that is WHEN a vaccine is a reality. Now consider it takes another 12 months before a vaccine is a reality, implying that Covid-19 will be around until January 2024 at the very least. At what stage will we learn that masks are a good idea, and I am happy to set the stage that lockdowns are some proof, but what proof remains the issue, do you still think those Swedes were nuts? 

And in this, consider the news that CNBC gave us in June ‘AstraZeneca is aiming to produce 2 billion doses of a coronavirus vaccine — and it could be ready by September’, do you still think that I was crazy saying that the media is a much larger cause of all the fake news we get?

I am not stating that I know when there is a solution, I am not proclaiming that I have all the answers, yet the numbers are clear and they tell a few stories, and in all those stories we see that some of the reflections offered to us are incorrect, incomplete and dazzled with issues. On the upside, my 5G IP has benefits under Covid (and lockdowns) but they were not designed as such, it is merely an upside to it all. And when we look on, we might see the corporate needs, but they are merely in it to keep their heads above water, and I do not begrudge them that, but a lot of the actions are made on incomplete views and more incomplete data, that much is certain. 

I get it when some state that there is an overreaction, yet some setting (like face masks) are never a bad idea, it makes sense that some lockdown measures are essential, yet how will that ever work in Mumbai, which is 4% the size of Sydney, but has close to 300% of the population, and people under why I doubt the Indian numbers? They test 500 a day, even as they had until recently 100,000 new cases a day. That it’s why the numbers make no sense. And this is merely getting worse, as economic barriers collapse, the setting will continue to degrade. I believe that India is in a much worse state, but that does not absolve Europe (or the US), this will get worse and those governing will be seeing the inside of courts, defending the stage, the setting and their actions. The media (even those with ludicrous headlines) they all want their digital media coin, so they will rely on hardline after headline and it will be about creating flames, not information. That is how I see it and feel free to disagree.

And as November is a mere 2 hours away, consider the time line I gave. Then consider the headline that the Guardian relied on yesterday ‘‘It’s possible’: the race to approve a Covid vaccine by Christmas’, unless the vaccine is properly tested by Friday, that deadline cannot be kept. So when you see “Kate Bingham, who heads the UK’s vaccine taskforce, said the UK was in “a very good place”. But there are still hurdles to clear in the coming weeks” (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/its-possible-the-race-to-approve-a-covid-vaccine-by-christmas), and when we see “It could be Oxford University, partnered with drug company AstraZeneca. It could be Moderna in the US. Or it could be Pfizer and the German company BioNTech. All three have either recruited the last of the tens of thousands of volunteers they need for the critical final trials or will shortly do so”, in this I merely wonder whose trumpet she is blowing. I am not blaming her or the three, they have a hard job, yet unrealistic time lines are hard on us and they are facilitating for those trying to manage bad news and that is not right, not in this case (well, most often not in any case).

So if you are hoping or relying on a vaccine, think again. The numbers do not add up, on several sides and the media is not asking questions, so I am.

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The end of denial

It is true, we all face it and when we do it is not always a pretty moment. I am no exception to this. It happens at some point of revelation or the consideration that I finally figure out a factor that others and I myself too had not considered. Before that it all made sense, yet after that moment and after we banged our own heads to a desk, the wall (a hardened surface) we get the thoughts “How could I have been this dim”, “WTF was I thinking” or the more popular “I have to start from scratch”, the last one is important in this. You see, most think that a mere course correction can fix this, and for the most that would be correct, yet there is the part we all ignore to take “If I forgot one element, what are the chances I forgot two?” You think it is that easy, but it is not. You see the first forgotten part could easily hide the second part and realising that is important. That is the stage that is illuminated by ‘The worst is yet to come’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/09/06/the-worst-is-yet-to-come/), even as I did not mention it there, the stage of escalations and even as I tipped on the stage with “other numbers give us “4,114,773”, the number is 50% off and that is merely the beginning. India might be the most visible one, but there is no way that they are the only one. There is yet more, it cannot be given full credibility”, it is a stage we go through and the confirmation became more visible as the day to day known infections raced towards 400K cases a day and on October 23 it stopped at 490K cases a day. I also observed “I believe there is a whole range of those with the Coronavirus and those who died of it are not counted for whatever reason. There is no blame here, the US and other nations had not been confronted with this situation for 100 years. The stage was never ready for this and with the bulk of all nations in a budget crunch it will not be resolved”, which is a larger truth in all this. And today the BBC gives us ‘Trump’s chief of staff admits US cannot control pandemic’, whether this is a ‘come clean moment’ or an ‘end denial moment’ doesn’t really matter, it is too late for some stage of ‘setting a solution’. Yet there we also see the next stage of denial. When we see “White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said Covid-19 could only be defeated by “mitigation areas” like vaccines and therapeutics”, this sounds nice in theory, yet there is no vaccine, anyone making a claim to the otherwise is lying to you. The Australian ABC now gives us, 12 hours ago ‘Why is the Government now saying it could take up to 12 months to roll out a coronavirus vaccine in Australia?’ The answer is simple, there is no vaccine, you can plan and make ideas for rolling out a vaccine in early 2021, but if there is no vaccine, it is merely a spreadsheet with dates. And that is the realisation that everyone wants you to forget. ABC acknowledges this with “depending on which candidate is ultimately successful” because the party giving us the vaccine is still unknown, they are all fighting to be the best, merely because the reward (money) is too appealing. So what on earth is making industry Minister Karen Andrews say “medical company CSL and CSIRO are equipped to quickly manufacture a “protein-based” vaccine — like the type being developed by the University of Queensland”, quickly manufacture what? There is no vaccine and the quicker we realise this the better we are off. Optionally 4% of the world population WILL die, that gives us that funeral directors will need access to up to 320 million caskets. OK, that was wrong and an exaggeration, plenty will opt for cremation. And my setting is only correct for as long as the 4% mortality rate holds up, when that escalates the numbers will really go up, having your money stuck in Wall Street will see its balance melt away like snow in a heatwave. 

The BBC comment I really likes was “He added that Mr Meadows’ comments showed that the Trump administration had “given up on their basic duty to protect the American people”, it sets a new stage in the US, the people intentionally opting not to wear a mask are now in a stage where they could optionally be held liable for endangering the lives of others and law firms will be quick to coin in on that too. This will not hold in rural places, but in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington DC, New York, and Boston? Yes, there we see a larger problem and the American people will have to choose between wearing a mask (a wise decision) or become optionally the subject of prosecution, in civl and possibly even criminal court. Because this too is the consequence of ‘given up on their basic duty to protect’, it is part of a blame game, when a person cannot point at the government, he or she will seek an alternative and suing is quite popular in America. As such I also feel vindicated in some form, I saw this coming months earlier and when we see “control of the virus was not a realistic goal because “it is a contagious virus just like the flu”” This stage was pretty clear 10 months ago, so why did the US administration set the bar to unrealistic goals? The article ends with a question mark. It is seen with “Speaking to the BBC on Sunday, top US infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci said a Covid-19 vaccine could be available in the US before the end of the year if one proved to be “safe and effective”, but that the first doses would go to people in order of priority. He said it would take “several months into 2021” before the vaccine was more widely available.” There is a large question mark here, mainly because THERE IS NO VACCINE! It is the largest setting in this. I have no intent (or knowledge levels) to go up against Dr. Fauci and it is the stage that we need to see, because the BBC gives us “could be available”, as well as “if one proved to be” the application of ‘could’ and ‘if’, a ‘What-if’ stage with optional parameters and that is not a safe stage to be on. The rest makes sense priority cases first, and optional distribution after but the larger stage is not that distribution will come, but when it will come, there is no vaccine at present and every week it is not out, the distribution will slowly but certainly move towards the second half of 2021. And it is not merely me saying this, ABC gave us 4 days ago “First COVID vaccines on track for early-to-mid next year”, they give us the inclusion of mid next year, a realistic stage, but one that is driven by availability. And that is one of two factors. When the vaccine is a fact, how long do you think it will take to make 2 billion doses? And in this what else will surface? No matter how safe it seemingly is, the stage cannot be managed to make it safe to ALL, anyone who relies on that is plainly stupid. Even as a setting of 100 gave one person who got complications (and seemingly overcame them) it is not a given, we cannot speculate on a 100% success rate, it is short sighted and foolish. 

In September I wrote ‘the worst is yet to come’ and we are nowhere near that stage, so as idiot media (like the Daily Telegraph) create fear with ‘Australians kept in the dark on rollout of a COVID vaccine’, or given false hope with ‘Donald Trump’s advisor claims COVID vaccine will be ready by November’ (all within the last 10 hours), we need to accept one truth, there is at present NO VACCINE, when there is no vaccine there is no viable plan for a rollout, you see a vaccine needs mass production first, so there is that too. Yet, feel free to rely on that stupid fuck Chris Evans (the editor, not the actor). And when the vaccine is finalised in march 2021 (or after that), who will he blame for the articles? 

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Mirror of delusional beliefs

We all have that feeling to some degree, something we really want and if we cut our budget for one week we can buy the suit we wanted to have, so we buy the suit, then we push forward the budgeting to the last week, then we delusional remind ourselves that if we make the adjustment to our menu to the last three days, we don’t have to adjust our budgets, so we do that, we keep on pushing forward until it is the 25th day of the budget, we bought the suit and we ran out of money, we pushed the menu forward, the budget forwards and now that we have 6 days to go we are running out of money. We have all done it, whether it was to buy a gaming console, a laptop, fashion, concert tickets, we can come up with all kinds of reasons, we have all done it. This is how I at present see Debenhams. In the article ‘Debenhams hires liquidator in contingency plan’ which was published 6 hurts ago (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53797371) gives us “if the administrators, FRP Advisory, fail to find a buyer or new investment, Debenhams faces liquidation – putting 14,000 jobs at risk. A spokesperson for the department store said: “Debenhams is trading strongly, with 124 stores reopened and a healthy cash position.”” Yes we can push forward all we can and then ignore it, yet when we consider “It gets to be even worse when the Guardian prints the pragmatic “It’s all hairdressers and coffee shops and nail bars. People won’t come here to shop – they’ll go to a bigger town like Canterbury instead“, which in itself is a truth, making me wonder what is getting into some of these delusional big brands. The entire setting of the larger players has been under fire for the longest of time and the essential need to revisit locations is becoming an essential need for all of them, as such the statement: “Conservative MP Damian Green described the news as “very disappointing”. On Twitter, he wrote: “We need to redouble efforts to strengthen the town centre.”” becomes one of worry.” A few small details I revealed to the readers in April 2019, as such the statement of ‘Debenhams is trading strongly, with 124 stores reopened and a healthy cash position’ is nothing short of delusional. Now, we cannot blame the situation completely on Debenhams, because they have never faced anything like the Covid-19 situation and it would be unfair for them to be completely ready, yet dwindled resources is on them. I spoke about some of it in April 2019 in ‘When a dream is too delusional’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/04/28/when-a-dream-is-too-delusional/), as such the delusional part was pretty visible then too. So how from a distance the clear part of ‘124 stores reopened and a healthy cash position’ that comes debatable this clear is an issue, especially when others are merely accepting the news without a clear investigation into the debatable mindset of Debenhams corporate officers is a bit of a question. I know that there are sets of stations where they (apparently) know what they are doing is fine, but the small ‘124 stores reopened’, whilst a year ago my article ended with “I wonder which of those should never have been made, but that is merely my view on the matter and with up to 50 stores up for closure I personally reckon I might have a case on that.” So as we see 50 stores up for closure and a year later we see 124 stores reopened, I wonder if some people are stretching the stage where optionally (and speculatively) tax laws were used to push into a nice neutral setting and now that we see “2,500 more jobs, on top of 4,000 cuts it announced in May”, all whilst the larger stage is set to “Debenhams faces liquidation – putting 14,000 jobs at risk” and no one asks serious questions as the jobs for 14,000 people are on the line. Is it me or is there a clear case for us all to asks questions of these (what I might optionally incorrectly call) tax shelters? I wonder what their so called “healthy cash position” is.

A station of all kinds of impressions and interpretations, but the truth is that no matter how ‘great’ Debenhams is shown, it is a bleeding behemoth and the 14,000 depending people are about to be thrown on the sidewalk, I am pretty certain that the board of Debenhams will phrase it  differently. 

SO in the end we can think of it in any way possible, but the stage of these houses is pretty much over, Covid-19 made sure of that and those in doubt, consider “Debenhams entered a pre-pack administration which allowed it to keep trading” and investigate who made that happen, what allowed the station of ‘keep trading’ whilst there is actually no significant amount of consumer cash is going into these places, not when you state it in relationship to the cost that these centres have, the balance of that equation might surprise you.

 

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Ch-ch-ch-changes

Today was weird, the shops were in full open mode and the people were also in full mode. As I was personally seeing it, in full repulsive mode. Police intervening on people making a fuzz, I saw the Chinese guy at my coffeeshop getting abused by a woman who was clearly not working with a full deck and a I was watching on the sidelines, I realised then that a lot of people were in fear mode, I am now rethinking today whilst I am listening to lullaby by the Cure. It all seems a little out of whack. In part I am happy that I have my laptop with a proper working space bar, yet I am also eager to investigate a few items and as I am rethinking on my musical needs, I am considering on the waves that we are facing and the impact that they have. You see, some see the entire lockdown as a negative way, I am too, yet I am also seeing the positive impact. Whilst people are looking and running around, I see that the economic stages are changing. 0.1% of the global population is diagnosed with the Coronavirus, a stage that is important, the numbers are low, there is an implied stage where up to twi ce the amount of people hav3e it and a lot of them are in America, as such Wall Street is seeing the unfolding of their worst nightmare, it is not about people that have jobs and people that do not have jobs, it is about consumers an their small realisation that they are dead. Some state between 450,000 and 500,000, but these are official numbers and several of the EU players are downplaying those numbers and they matter, they are consul era no longer consuming and Wall Street has never far ed this and they are panicking, their risk models will not give the bad news, but they can feel it. It is not merely Europe, the Commonwealth and America are part of the equation and the equation is not going according to their needs.

Only 6 hours ago we see that the US is facing a second day with Corona cases reaching new record levels. 45,000 cases in the last 24 hours, yet the numbers underneath it are silently wiped to the side. It is what I stated in the very beginning (February 3rd), it is about the mortality rate and in the US it is not the lowest, this implies that up to 3,000 people stop being consumers, their houses up for sale and with the speed that houses are coming to sale, the housing market will take a new dive for a little while. All things that are tonne cited, all things that Wall Street participants will downplay, because they have to do that and the current administration is halting the visa approach to America. So there will be a harder stage as the year ends, that is if there are any American around at that point (I know it its an exaggeration), yet is that truth that far off?

As I personally see it, the mov e of my IP to China might be the best consideration I had, and it is not just me. The US in many forms is starting to see the light on just how weak they have become. So whilst everyone is hiding behind the $2.3 billion contract of Raytheon, others are wondering on the ‘undervaluation’ of Raytheon only 4 days ago, we see a new seesaw of powers happening and in all this, the consumers that fuel the fire are dying off, less to support it and less people in a stage to wonder on just how far behind the US is in the 5G market, because that is the  actual market that matters, the fuelling of a new economy and that part is overlooked, three sides of a square all requiring a consumer base and that is the one element the US is missing out on more and more. So whilst some news stations report on the fight between the positive thinkers and the negative thinkers on Wall Street, so whilst some are stating (Forbes for one) that that the death rate has continued to decrease, I think that these deaths are either not reported on, or they are set aside as something else and time will prove me right, because there is one thing that is as sure as death and taxes, it is the fact that a mortality rate tends to be a constant and the hiding of numbers does not help anyone, it merely temporarily stops a downward motion of an economic that is in a stage of misjudged numberings and as I personally see it, one that is grossly misreported on in nearly every direction, as such when it comes to blows, we will see law firms running out in all kinds of mismanaged outcries of ‘foul play’ all whilst that stage is in the out an open from day one.

So when the numbers are finally here, what will you do? Cry out or seek the profits you could be enjoying? I am keeping my eyes on some property in California, close to Google and close to new shores of profit, where will you be? In both cases it will be a lovesong, optionally sung by the Cure, which was a nice bonus, but in that stage what cure will you be looking at, an artistic one, or a misreported one? When a larger population becomes in dire need of healthcare and medication, consider where they got sick, at present it is in a nation that is doing what it can to halt Obamacare and set in motion a different care system, implying that there will be a gap, which is not surprising as their covid bonus is indicatively send to a dead person, according to some news stations $1.4 billion was sent to dead people, they obviously did not need it, so how did that mess start, I will tell you, it is sent to the sea of despair, one bad on data manipulation and not reporting and when it is that much money, how many people died that are not in the papers? If we are to believe the Associated press, “130 million of the economic impact payments were sent mistakenly due to a lag of reporting on who is actually deceased”, so when the impact is that high, how many thousands are dead and as the survivors might not have to sent it back, how much worse is this situation getting? We might want to blame the IRA to stop payments from being sent to the deadly departed, but consider the amount and just how many were dead and the IRA is unaware? This is much bigger and it is getting worse, so whilst some people fight on whether this is the first or the second wave, it is my personal understanding that the dead do not care, they never made it in either the first or second approach and that side is more important, because this will hit the US on a few sides before the year is out, and the living will optionally have a really nice future ahead of them, because at that point anyone will get hired, perhaps if only to keep the appearances up.

It’s a whole new ball game and the impact will be visible all over the planet, because even as the US example is the most visible one, it is not the only one, Europe is about to see the impact of all this as well, the EU wanted to pay for it, but Wirecard misplaced $2,000,000,000 and then ended up losing $5,000,000,000, so thee is that too. The money is gone, consumers will not top up that event and everyone is wondering where the money went and where the oversight was, I reckon the overseer was sick at home playing Fallout 4, that is what overseers do, had you forgotten that?

 

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Just say ‘BANG!’

We all laugh and we all seem to point fingers, we all seem to endure the blame game. How governments are bowing to the bully (President Trump) and convict without evidence a corporation and a nation (Huawei and China), yet at the core of it all, we are merely sheep, we bask in the sun as the wolves take one or two sheep, and as long it is not us, we merely watch and remain basking in inaction. The media helps here by trivialising news, by basking in inaction on matters that are reported on, without the need for evidence by howling ‘This was what was told to us, we merely report’. So where are the questions on President Trump, who once claimed that it would merely impact 1.5%? Now that 1.5 million Americans have the disease and 92,000 died of it, where is that 1.5% when it is already at 400% of what was expected, what do we get to see? A president blaming the WHO, stating that China is in its back pocket. Even when we realise that the WHO has no legal rights in any nation, realising that the EU has a massive reporting problem that affects thousands, nope, it is all about the blame game. It worked for Senator McCarthy in 1953-1955, it will work for President Trump too and so far, it seems to work. Yet the problem is expanding more and more. Now we see how people are more often in jeopardy. We see hackers and scammers with Covid-19 agendas, we see 5G blamed by short minded people and again we see EasyJet getting hacked and 9 million people just lost their credit card privacy, but there are voices that are trying to calm us “There is no evidence that any personal information has been misused”, yet they are doing more! “We are communicating with the approximately 9 million customers to advise them of protective steps”, yes how about one singular step? “We have instigated a death squad to hunt down the hackers and put them to death!” Not accepting any excuse from parents that their 17 year old did not know what he/she was doing, not some excuse that it was their first time. Nope, we set a gunto their temple and blow the brains out and televise the event so that others know, their time for cheap thrills is over, they become the cheap thrill. And we will all get notified by the media that this is too harsh, too inhumane, yet that is not the real deal is it? The shareholders and stakeholders pushing the media know that at some point THEY become the sought targets and they fear this.

When there are no targets, transgressors fear what will come and that is the fear they have and we need to drive the dagger home, drive it towards the targets that matter.

Politicians will shout ‘terrorism’ at any event, the media will report that, but they will not report and investigate the proper format of accusations, just like they refused to investigate the accusers of Saudi Arabia. First on a missing journalist no one cared about, after that on a mobile phone of a person who was too rich for his own good and no one properly vetted the evidence, they merely dropped it on the desk of a UN essay writer. The Guardian (and many others) hid behind ‘high confidence’ mentions and other media did similar actions, yet they never investigated it, did they? It was a week of jabs and then it quietly went away, that is what we signed up for and I for one have had enough of this media driven BS.

If we can’t direct them, we can tell them to be quiet whilst we fix things and the benefit of my approach is that in a depression, hackers and abusers don’t really get to have any voice in the matter. Hackers and profiteers in a stage where there are 320,000 dead people, it implies that well over 500,000 are affected and they do not really care about the life of a hacker (well their mommies and daddies do), who cares about them?

That is the stage that is in question, the stage where governments will not set a proper stage, where too many industries abused the situation towards their bottom dollar and in all this a new stage of McCarthyism is created by the current administration, all whilst the media reacts towards shareholders, stakeholders and advertisers. In this the public have had enough and they want to see real action, not what the media and politicians call actions, but something tangible and that stage is now out in the open. 

And whilst the news is all about the Covid fears, we get to see how people like Morgan Wright, a former senior adviser to the US State department as a member of the anti-terrorism assistance program, sees similar issues, he reported yesterday “He is seeing the exploitation of human behaviour on the dark web, mainly through the TOR browser, which allows pwople to obscure their identity, it is a privacy driven status now used by criminals to do with impunity” and in all this it is clear that normal jurisprudential methods are not working, so a death squad is what we need. Perhaps you like the original term better “a CIA wet team” a wet team because of all that blood, and the amount of people demanding this solution is increasing by thousands on a daily basis, this is the result when there is no longer some form of balance, when the checks and balances are taken away and the people are settled unjustly with the invoice that should have been properly taken care of. As such we are bound to see a much less appreciated group of people demanding solutions. This is what the politicians and governments are now facing, a new form of terrorism and it is based on the lack of actions by too many. 

So whilst the media is all about privacy whilst we know we do not have any, we see the larger picture, we demand to see factual evidence, we demand repercussions for the transgressors, a stage we haven’t faced ever before, those who put us in this situations forgot that checks and balances requires some sort of balance, and as that was taken away from too many, we demand evidence on the validity of gravy trains and in that absence these people better show long term results, or a lynch mob is all that remains, McCarthy never learned that lesson, in 1950 6,000 miles was a lifetime away, now it is merely a click and nothing more than a few mere seconds. That will become clear soon enough, it comes with every additional Covid death and every lockdown hindering us, the media forgot about that too, in all this the forgotten parts will weigh against them all, and something will have to give, especially with the US in a $25 trillion debt and one in four Americans out of work, it is a situation that is worse than the combined negativity that the great depression and 2008 meltdown showed, but both together will force a new reality, it is in this setting that a loud mouthed republican was possibly the worst of the worst scenarios that the US has to content with, I am not stating that Russia and China are in better positions, but they can sit on the sidelines whilst the US and partially the EU burns down, their inactions allow for all this, there is no enemy to smite and Saudi Arabia was never an enemy, and the people love a real enemy and as such the hackers will have to do. I think that none of us saw this coming, it was never in the books, but ‘New Terrorism’ will soon become very real and the media is out of bounds on this one, their inactions helped create it. 

 

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Nature of the beast

There was news on how Samsung failed the net mobile options, the news was given ‘Exynos 990-powered Galaxy S20+ flops hard in gaming’ what I read came from NotebookCheck, and it is important that even as I am no friend of Samsung (due to their own doing in 1985), I tend to not be a Samsung hater. Let us not forget that I love Nintendo and I personally hated the WiiU, I also accept that sometimes a failure precedes a success like the Nintendo Switch, so Samsung might optionally be down,but they are not out. In the end the article lets out that it is basically not the fault of Samsung, but the chip (and its makers) is the cause of all the viewed hardship. The Exynos 990 seems to be below par on a few fields as such depending on that chip caused the project to go pear shaped. This is the direct result of choices, sometimes they blow back on us (WiiU anyone?). Yet in the field the hidden message is often missed. As stated ‘after 10 minutes of running PUBG Mobile, the galaxy S20+ was dropping frames to 50fps (something some recent consoles could not maintain), and as low as 40fps by the 20 minute mark’ the story is nowhere near over and Samsung has time to get up to speed in more than one way.

The writer goes on stating how it is that a $200 solution called Redmi Note 8 Pro did so much better. It is interesting that merely one example was matched. Still it is a mark on the status list of Samsung for now, yet a firm that is in the top 5 of most registered patents in the last years does not have merely one push towards the top and even as (for now) the S20+ is not likely to be a pushing power to the top, Samsng has had its share of true innovative successes and as such it will bounce back, it has done that a few times, and I have no doubt it will do so again.

They are not alone, even as Apple has no recorded future failure yet, it seems that not unlike the time of the PowerMac, they face a new chiprace. The news is that Intel just cannot get their response rate right and as we see that, Apple is considering a new path, one that is RISC or ARM, if it is the RISC, we see a return to happy times (ME: happy happy joy joy), yet that is because I am not a chip man and I know little of the ARM, I merely remember the good times of the RISC (I still have my RISC G5), that systems outdid anything available in those days and made no noise. Still that is not enough for you to rely on. In my mind I see another field starting up, all the APP developers relying on little INTEL options to get whatever they made go faster will have to rethink their options, there will be a weeding in the ranks of APP developers soon enough at that point, not to mention the people making PC games and including Apple as an option, it sets the optional parameters that the design for Apple needs to be truly for Apple. These two matters are a larger stage, last year the Irish Times reported on the collaboration between the two in regards to the iTunes movies, but I wonder if it stops there, Samsung has a much stronger infrastructure, Apple has a few unique designs and a following of millions, I wonder if there is not a larger space for more between the two, they must realise that the changed setting of Covid requires a different stage of thinking for the near future, their approach to almost unaffordable phones is nice, but millions of people are getting laid off, people who used to buy their products and that is off the table for the next two years, if not even longer. 

The changes that we are seeing will demand the largest players to find symphony and chorus between them instead of relying on the powerful solo acts that no one can afford. As such we will see a few more surprises in 2020 and 2021. Some might think that the markets will settle again, but they all forgot that to appease Wall Street too many companies were on a 90% stage with no reserves, now it shows as the bankruptcy numbers are going through the roof, even smaller players like Virgin are running for their life laying off thousands of people, without reserves there is no continuance for any of them, they ignored the common setting for keeping reserves and a 2 month shutdown was enough to make most of them buckle and it will get worse, the EU (those pulling the strings) have achieved in delaying Basel III for another year due to Covid implications. The FSB stated in one of their reports “Funding markets have been under strain amid extreme demand for cash and near-cash assets” it is a stage that is escalating, mainly because of a lack of reserves and it hits back at Samsung as well. This one failure is optionally no biggie, but when you consider that the next two years will be washed from larger revenue and profit in a stage where the time was not great to get a failure to deal with is not great, it is all about the reserves and to appease the markets too many players left ‘margin’ on the side for good reporting, it stands to reason that bad news will rule the news on several fields and it seems that Samsung will join that group that ends up having not great news, and optionally they have marginally good news that will get a downward revision up to 60-120 days later, can’t have the current quarter down, can we?

We can look and see how separate events do not add up and that would be fair, there is however a much larger field in sight and in that field the S20+ failure comes at a bad time, yet they are not alone Apple is in a similar place and forgoing individuality for 2-3 years and set combined products might be the good path for those two players. Samsung could revert to another path but overall they are not in charge, their shareholders are and they fear recession like the black plague. This is merely because 2-3 years could result in a stage of no reserves with a much stronger push towards a 3-5 year stage of no consumers and the shareholders fear that much more than anything. 

Is it not interesting how shareholders make a large company much easier to anticipate?

I have no doubt that Samsung will survive this era, just like it did in 1985, so far history has proven me right again and again, yet the entire Corona escalation is new to too many players and to me too, as such there is a lot we cannot see in a stage of feigned ‘non-panic’, even as these people have no idea just how bad things can get, and they need their shareholders to have faith, as such there remains an unknown. 

Time and profit are the ruling elements of the beast that devours, for the most it devours profit, yet what will it resort to when there is no profit?

 

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When walls close in

I had an interesting day, my mind designed another game, I dreamt of a new movie and I considered what comes next in the entire Covid mess. I will say upfront that it is all speculation, the issues skating close to the truth usually are. It all started with the news. The BBC gives us ‘Trump: A safe gradual and phased opening’, which might be nice and OK, yet the people who actually know about sickness and disease think it is a bad idea. With 2,347,887 sick and 161,138 dead people some will get to say ‘I see dead people’, and they might be telling the truth. I will not waste your time to consider the 739K sick people in the US and the connected 39K dead people, the math there does not hold up completely because of the timeline and the speed at which it pushes through due to large cities like New York. And what do hundreds of Americans do, people without any level of medical education mind you? They protest against the Covid rules, they are the source of propagating the disease and that is good. You see Wall Street and its vassals need to learn the one lesson they forgot about, if you bank on a consumer based wealth cuve, you need actual consumers and the US lost over 39K consumers. Their debts cannot be collected and the curve changes. Even as some Texans push to reopen to open their business, we will see that the rents are due but a lot of customers will stay away. Open business without mindful consumers spending money. Yes it is the time for Amazon to really reel in the cash, but in the end, the shops still lose. And remember resident Trump making some waves in proclaiming against all evidence that the mortality rate of Covid would be no more than 1.8%? It is over 5% in the US at present. No one seems to be asking the right questions. The economic model must be adhered to and the EU is starting to realise that it is a mere tool in the needs of the US, AUS has not figured that out yet, but they will, or perhaps AUS will become the 53rd state of the US. All speculative options at present,something that will be merketter as the A state of the US.

In my view there is a lot of overreaction regarding the flu, yet I am willing to accept that it is done to lower the curve and to keep casualties down, OK, I get it. I might not like it, but I get it and that feeling remains absent for a lot in the US.

Andin all this as we see the reactions to investigations on the World Health Organisation, I am content to write those names down, the pretentious Marise Payne who is all about bi-partisanship. The interesting thing is that this all happened right after the accusations by President D. Trump, yet not unlike the Huawei situation no evidence of any kind was ever produced, and again the A state of the US is following. It is one of those times when ‘bipartisan’ seems to meen, ‘a tool for the US’. 

Why am I here?

You see a flu this amazing where mortality rate is in the sewers and all over the place, jumping from 2% to 10% whilst there are over 100K patients in that country is not natural. There can always be some fluctuation, but if you merely look at Germany and France, where the amount of dead people are apart by almost 500%, there is a larger issue, that issue is that there is more to the disease and nations are in denial of that part, yet blaming China makes it all OK, or so they think.

Let’s make sure that I am not stating that they are innocent, I am stating that so far we see no evidence of any kind and the open hostilities of the US towards China are not set in any light in the media. That too is a piece of evidence that needs to be illuminated.

The stage where Marise Payne is stating that the WHO should not run the investigation and that she is stating that China should allow for transparency whilst she herself is in a doubtful stage is unmentioned. I agree that the coronavirus needs to be investigated, yet it needs to be done by the right people, the fact that she wants to invalidate the WHO from the get go is weird to say the least. In all this the first station of the flu is healthcare and they have been underfunded for over a decade, the health of consumers was overplayed and the effects underestimated. This is visible in AUS, the UK, many nations in the EU and the US. I know too little of Japan to add them to the list. 

THese consumers are adamant and directly involved, because without them the Wall Street formula fails and someone is finally realising it. Forbes stated on April 13th (a Monday) ‘Wall street Wobbles as investors ignore the science of Covid-19’ and there we see “its transmissibility and mortality rate are known to health officials. All of this information has been communicated publicly” yet there are clear open souces out there as well as the numbers in Germany,Spain, Italy and China that makes for a shoddy case in both matters and the people are just ignoring it. The article shows a few other parts and also the fact that when it comes to Wall Street, it is erratic, especially when the numbers go down and that is what will happen, as the US surpasses a mortality numbers of 50K, we will see panic by investors, especially as the disease does not differentiate between the rich and the poor, the worker and the abuser, a flu that merely kills. And when they realise that the death rate in the US is five times that of Germany, we will see initial inklings that there is a larger play and it is not seen in the death numbers, it will be seen in the stage where economies cannot get started because it requires consumers and they are dead. Yet the total deaths is lower than those in Syria and Yemen, so why bother now?

Because now they are consumers that these companies vie for and they no longer answer their phones, and for the most the health officials are ignored to avoid the danger that the message is too negative. As we see in the UK that the NHS people are wearing aprons instead of gowns. As they are on life support, we see a much larger danger. A nation where health care falls away, it took 114K patients and 15K deaths to pull that off, so when will Americans realise that their numbers are a lot worse and their levels of inequality. The Guardian gave us ‘Profit over people, cost over care: America’s broken healthcare’, and no one in the US is actively investigating that part? Australia is almost in a similar place. 

It is not the beginning or the middle, this is the beginning of the beginning and things will get worse. I wonder how many people realise that, even as we see all kinds of numbers, when we do get sick and healthcare falls away, the world has a problem and the US will be one of the first ones to learn what happens when the Wall Street formula cannot be matched. For them profit is everything, lives are not.

So whilst you are in lockdown, consider the fact that when the walls fall in, it is not a case of the walls falling in, but you have been placed in a coffin and you are a number on the covid stats, no matter where you live. And optionally, you will be one of the forgotten, especially as the BBC and others are stating that these numbers are so much higher than expected. In the UK has 2,000 home care locations with the Coronavirus, yet ABC claims that their numbers are not to be found, so how high is the problem and what else is unknown at present. So whilst we are not in possession of the numbers, some are still willing to blame China, all whilst for too long too many places left the border open until specifics were known, that failing in foresight is also unmentioned in many places, I wonder what that investigation will bring to the table of Marie Payne, if she looks at it at all.

 

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Insensitive Me

Yes, at times I tend to be truly absent of empathy, especially when I see small items like ‘as companies struggle with debt‘, so as I am given ‘Experts warn companies that have gorged on cheap money for the past decade face going out of business‘, some of them relied on the famous sales quote ‘Fake it till you make it’, and now we see the ‘warning’ sign “A worldwide credit crunch triggered by the coronavirus will set in motion a wave of corporate bankruptcies that will make the global financial crisis look like “child’s play”, investors have warned.” In this my sober response would be ‘And? Why (the eff) would I care?‘, these people relied on the debt, money they never had to get beyond the point of faking it till they made it and one small flu event is now driving them out of business. So as the world is throwing trillions against it all, I wonder just how short sighted they are. The EU spent 3 trillion on an economy to start it and it never did. As such there will be a much larger toll to everyone involved. There is no upside in “The sudden loss of revenue faced by airlines, tourism-related businesses and carmakers make them extremely vulnerable” OK, we get it, it is not their fault, but we have seen an economy giving out ebts, loans and cheap travels all over the world. Now that there will be an actual cost, there is always an impact we did not see coming. And as we are treated to: “many companies will struggle to refinance debt due to a repeat of the sudden change in credit conditions that sparked the 2007 credit crunch, banking collapses and then the GFC. The prospect of no revenue for months meant creditworthiness had plummeted in exposed sectors and cut off access to funding” we see the shortsigted issues that not having reserves bring. There is now a larger cost to rolling over debts and the stage that zero revenue brings will kill off the smaller players, those players thinking that they were in the same league of the big boys and the big boys are indeed wondering if they survive this age, as such the small fishes have almost no chance. 

As such as we consider the impact of “$2 trillion worth of corporate debt is due to be rolled over this year” all whilst we see no validation of debt rolling over, and the absence of paid off debts, we see a much larger field and everyone is in a stage ‘but why me?‘, as I personally see it, it will affect everyone who did not take the option to reduce their debts. I get it, some will be in a shabby situation and none of this is on them, but to give a rise to 5 out of 500 is a little shallow, is it not? It is the station that we see with “Lindsay David, of independent consultancy LF Economics, said the coronavirus shutdown had exposed longstanding imbalances in the financial system that had been disguised by more than a decade of ultra-low interest rates and trillions of dollars from quantitative easing schemes in the major economies“, we see the stupidity of ‘longstanding imbalances in the financial system‘ and the question attached to that ‘Why was it unattended for so long?‘ is a station that no one wants to be at, no one wants to answer that part of the equation. 

As such, the quote “We know everyone is overleveraged, full-bore, full-risk,” he said. “All we were waiting for was a trigger and unfortunately that has come in the form of a health crisis.” As such it is not the fault of the Coronavirus, any trigger would have sufficed, as such being the one adhering to some Wall Street need, is set to zero and the house will take it all, it is in that light that some see players like Virgin Australia who needs to roll over $5 billion whilst it is in a stage where it cannot bring more than $500 million to the table, a mere 10%, even in the better stage where it would have been double that, rolling over is a doubtful stage for a few lenders, yet this health trigger is not the one anyone hoped or even wished for, it is a stage that was well over 10 years in the making and greed driven people filled their pockets and walked away with a multi million bonus, enough to live in luxury for the next 10 years. After which the market will resettle and their stage of profit comes again, that is what we have catered to.

So as we are introduced to “A full repeat of the post-Lehman Brothers crisis was on the cards, he said, as banks scrambled to hold on to liquidity” a lot of people have not considered the stage we see where the panic driven people first bought out all the pasta they could and after that take out their ATM and saving balance before the bank runs out, at that stage the initial point leading to the worst of the worst will be a much larger stage for everyone.

And the larger issue is seen at the end of the article with: “Let’s say you are a pension fund in Canada and six years ago you gave a bank $1bn. Every year you roll over that bond and the deal remains in place. But now you’re saying, ‘you know what, can I have that money back now?’. So the problem for the company is, where will I find $1bn? Not from its deposits or its liquidity because it’s now got more money going out than coming in.” and that is not where it ends, in October 2019 we saw “regulators should be ensuring the strength of the financial sector to withstand future risks, not weaken it, but that is not what is happening in the U.S.  Recent moves to ease regulations suggest financial stability risks are at an inflection point. Incentives to leverage will continue to rise as interest rates remain low amid a global search for yield.  Vulnerabilities that have been “moderate” could escalate quickly to “elevated”, as they did in the lead up to the 2007 – 2008 crisis“, as such some tried to ‘ease’ the Basel 3 regulations as fast as their greedy needs required, as such, we see “Phase-in arrangements for the leverage ratio were announced in the 26 July 2010 press release of the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision. That is, the supervisory monitoring period will commence 1 January 2011; the parallel run period will commence 1 January 2013 and run until 1 January 2017; and disclosure of the leverage ratio and its components will start 1 January 2015. Based on the results of the parallel run period, any final adjustments will be carried out in the first half of 2017 with a view to migrating to a Pillar 1 treatment on 1 January 2018 based on appropriate review and calibration” (at https://www.bis.org/press/p100912.pdf), now that was then and it got a little more time “The leverage ratio1 and the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), which took effect in January 2018, and the supervisory framework for measuring and controlling large exposures, which took effect in January 2019, have yet to be adopted by all jurisdictions (Graph 1). The leverage ratio is now in force in 16 jurisdictions (one more since 2018), while 11 jurisdictions have final rules in force for the NSFR (unchanged since 2018). Only 10 jurisdictions have final rules in force for the large exposures framework.” (at https://www.fsb.org/work-of-the-fsb/implementation-monitoring/monitoring-of-priority-areas/basel-iii/) as such it is not required until 1 January 2022 (as some stated), and now that it is too late, we will get the larger impact. So how happy are you with those people making 6 figure numbers and delaying it all again and again? You will feel that part soon enough when internal systems start to buckle. We might think that President Trump $1 trillion dollar bailout is a good thing, but when that money dries up (and it will dry up a lot faster than you think) he will a scared little mouse, as he will see firsthand what 300 million angry Americans look like and corporations will see the impact of their delay and rollover tactics. Even now as we are told ‘Trump administration is asking states to hold off on releasing unemployment figures as economy plummets‘, we might start to see a much larger failing. We are in a stage where we set ourselves up for a much larger stage, one that outstages the great depression of the 30’s, it merely took a case of the flu to get us there.

Should you think I am exaggerating, consider the Bloomberg headline (at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/goldman-sees-deepest-australian-downturn-since-great-depression) a mere 2 hours ago. It might have the sobering ‘Goldman Sees Deepest Australian Downturn Since Great Depression‘ headline, but in part the overp[aid delaying factors are to some degree cause of it all and they are hiding behind “Most of the contraction is expected to be driven by a collapse in ‘social’ consumption“, the essential part of ‘the stage of reserves is not what it needed to be‘ is not mentioned anywhere, you have to distill that from other parts and read through the emptiness of what they claim, they might claim facts, yet they do not give any part of the whole story and it will hit the US, Australia, the UK, France, Spain, Italy and to some degree even Germany. That is what we have to look forward to, at least as the Covid panic continues. It seems to me that the makers of pasta and pantry items are in a much better position. Until a month ago, the idea that San Remo ends up being one of the richest companies in Australia would have been laughed at, when you look at the empty shelves almost everywhere last week, that stage is a lot less laughable at present, I wonder in all this whether the new economic superpower will include San Remo and/or Barilla, as there is a chance that the seat of Virgin Australia on that board will be up for grabs soon enough.

 

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