Yes, that is one of the settings that could be seen. A drop off no one saw coming. Yet, is that true? I wrote about if a few times, and even as I was not in agreement on all counts, I was clear about certain dangers. So as we are given (at https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/30/covid-hospitals-england-asked-look-4000-emergency-beds) with the headline ‘Hospitals in England asked to look for up to 4,000 emergency Covid beds’, I merely wonder if it will be enough, there is every chance that they will need at least twice that amount before the UK is at the end of January.
I wrote two stories ‘Cross here to die’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/12/11/cross-here-to-die/) on December 11th and ‘The double check’ on December 16th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/12/16/the-double-check/) the second one gives us “There is another side that I actually did not look at, the idea of “175,000 hospital admissions”, even over 5 months (Dec 1st – Apr 30th) that implies 1158 admissions a day, which is almost double of what is at present the case, And consider that the average length of stay in a hospital is 8-9 days for non ICU patients and 12-18 days when ICU is required. In that setting the numbers reveal that before the end of January all hospitals are beyond breaking point and no hospital in the UK will have any beds available with optional settings that London patients might have to be be transferred to Wales, which is hilarious on a few levels”. So, basically I saw the setting we see now two weeks ago, as such well over a week ago actions would have been required, but were any taken? At present we see that the UK has “another record rise with more than 183,000 daily Covid cases”, this now gives is the speculative 1,830 speculated admissions a day, and treatment in hospitals will (if you are lucky require 8 days), as such my numbers were cautiously optimistic. So the stage of 8,000 additional beds might be short. This still does not mean that I agree with the mortality numbers, but they are not as unrealistic as they seem when I initially saw them.
The danger is that there are still unknown parts, there is no clear stage of how dangerous Covid Omicron is and I am not debating that it could remain a mild version, the case is that the mild version replicates faster than a bunch of horny rabbits. So the smallest group that does need medical treatment in hospitals is growing too and over days we are now already where I expected the situation to be at the end of January, a month earlier and that bites (especially if you need hospital treatment).
And this gets me to the second stage. You know that bunch of wankers (the labour party), aka the people who thought that Jeremy Corbyn was a decent human being, that group! So when the Guardian gives us ‘Johnson blamed for Covid test shortages as cases hit record 183,000’, the article (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/29/johnson-blamed-for-covid-test-shortages-as-cases-hit-record-183000) that gives us “Labour criticises PM over ‘total shambles’ of some essential workers being unable to access test kits”, my subtle sense is wondering in what room the were tossing off their Johnson when it was clear that people needed lockdown, that people needed to keep distance, needed to keep masks on. That group that had ex-Labour members put on a show in the Daily Mail so that there would be some form of deniability. Did the tories make errors. Yes! There is no denying it, yet the clarity was that there wasn’t enough information 3 weeks ago, and even as it was more transmittable, the PEOPLE had a clear stage where they COULD avoid contact, but they thought that covid would keep the holiday spirit as well, so how did that end up? We can push for blame, or we can accept responsibility of avoiding contact. I myself was lucky, my family is either dead or on the other side of the freakin planet, so avoiding was easy. I did not take time to have a festive holiday at DisneyWorld, or HarryPotter town for that matter. There is a pandemic and it is wrecking havoc on the world. Did anyone catch that news?
We all knew there would be more cases, but even some scientists are reeling from the 183,000 cases a day and that is not even the worst, the world is facing 1,000,000 cases a day at present, a stage it never had before and even as I was right to see the healthcare systems collapse, it is happening a lot sooner than I expected and I take no fun on that, because doctors and nurses are collapsing and that means that if you need medical assistance, you can check yourself in and lie in some corridor, the hospitals will be out of beds a per today I reckon, the fact that they needed close to 8,000 beds almost a week ago implies that the NHS will not be able to deal with the pressures for much longer and if hospital staff runs home to care for their loved ones, I will not blame them. The news as we saw it yesterday ‘Police appeal after ‘appalling’ attack on a test and trace centre by anti-vax protesters’, my point of view is simple, you can all go home and die for all I care. Hospital staff can leave you to rot wherever you fall down and the unvaccinated are (as I personally see it) not allowed covid hospital care unless these people pay privately upfront! When I see “Video footage from the scene of the Milton Keynes Theatre showed that children were frightened while the rioters abused staff and appeared to be stealing equipment”, I am bloody well losing it. Let these wankers die of covid, let them pay for covid hospital care and let everyone know who they are. So far I have taken delight in over two dozen obituaries of anti vaxxers, they all died of covid, so I like my odds and I would like it better if you all protected the hospital workers from these idiots.
In all, is it true? Did we never see the drop-off coming a mile away, or were we trying to avoid staring at it. I get it, and I do not lay blame if this was your position, the issues becomes larger if you avoided what was clear in sight, went through life ignoring covid, masks, vaccines and distancing, when you ignored all those factors I believe that you are in a stage where you did whatever you could to die earlier in life. Do not get me wrong, it is your right to do so, but at that point you need to accept responsibility of what you decided on and not blame all the other parties that could have seen some things coming (Boris Johnson), yet there was a scientific absence of actions, political people delaying votes. It is hard to understand that, I get it and I feel needy to blame them, but then we get those pesky scientists giving us that this is a mild version. No one did the proper number games, which is why I saw issues all over the field two weeks ago and I was also in the believe that there was a little more time than we actually have and that is on me, I take responsibilities for my choices, but I kept at least 4 out of the 5 elements in check, so I feel fine (unless I get covid, then I will feel miserable for a few days).
There is plenty of blame to go around and politicians are not free from blame and they need to be asked serious questions, questions from serious people (aka the labour clowns are out of bounds). To be honest, if anyone told me that I would end 2021 by holding Ed Davey in higher regard than Jeremy Corbyn or Keir Starmer I would have called them bonkers, but apparently miracles to happen, and there you have it. All kinds of drop-off points, some we saw, some we saw a mile away and some creeped up on us.
So when we see more politicians starting their blame game, we need to consider that this is a setting we have not seen in 100 years (Spanish Flu) and now there is a vaccine, those people never had one and we are all skeptical on vaccines? Really? And when the UK crosses the 200,000 cases and family members are left to die, do you still think that being an anti-vaxxer is about you living or you betting coached to die? What is the clever move? I am going with living longer, but I am an incurable optimist, and I will happily join the people wishfully thinking that a female Hollywood star is knocking on my door hoping that she can stay warm in my bed, yes at present that is a lot more realistic than the spouting of BS by anti-vaxxers, and that is saying something.