The double check

This is at times essential, we need (at times) double check what we did. Not the double check before we speak (which tends to be essential), but after we spoke, we get the setting that we need to make certain that we had it right. There is no shame in getting it wrong, it is the non-adjusted view that follows that makes what we do (completely) wrong.

In this, I decided to take another look at ‘Cross here to die’ an article I wrote on December 11th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/12/11/cross-here-to-die/), there I wrote “And there is more we get to see “a wave of infection is projected that could lead to a peak of more than 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with 175,000 hospital admissions and 24,700 deaths between 1 December this year and 30 April 2022.” And it is natural that these people hide behind ‘could lead to’, Yet the stage does not match. 175,000 admissions leading to 24,700, deaths. It goes against the numbers I have so far over a lot of nations and Omicron is stated (several sources) that it is a mild version that is more easily transmitted, yet not more deadly, so the numbers do not add up”, I stand by what I wrote, yet yesterday I was given “the UK has 78,610 new cases”, which is a massive jump from the 7-day moving average of 57,000 cases. Yet (for now) the non-living rate is still 115 per 7-day average, so my view holds up, to get to the trend of 161 deaths per 7 day average, a lot more people need to stop breathing. And in the setting of the 78,610 new cases (not specific Omicron), the setting needs to be a mortality rate of a lot (too tired to do the calculation), yet if the trend continues, the numbers shift, so there is a chance it might come to fruition, but we would need to see a continuing rise of new cases of 75,000 per day for close to a month, at which case hospitals will have collapsed and those in dire need can no longer be aided in any way. So at the current rate the mortality rate will have to increase by well over 50%, which is not logical, but with 30,000 new cases the stage might not be too unrealistic, although the original article gave us ‘Omicron could cause 75,000 deaths in England by end of April, say scientists’ requires the daily death rate to increase to 496 a day, up from 115 a day? That is a massive jump and that is why I questioned the numbers given to us. On the plus side, housing prices in London will drop dramatically, so there is always an upside to be found.

There is another side that I actually did not look at, the idea of “175,000 hospital admissions”, even over 5 months (Dec 1st – Apr 30th) that implies 1158 admissions a day, which is almost double of what is at present the case, And consider that the average length of stay in a hospital is 8-9 days for non ICU patients and 12-18 days when ICU is required. In that setting the numbers reveal that before the end of January all hospitals are beyond breaking point and no hospital in the UK will have any beds available with optional settings that London patients might have to be  be transferred to Wales, which is hilarious on a few levels. In the first their UK passport might be rejected, they will not speak the local language and after all the joke the people in Cardiff will not stomach people from England, at times life gives them a handle on humour.

DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER DANGER

The next is speculation and presumption. There are facts, but they were facts given to us based on what was, there is too much unknown with Omicron. 

Now consider the numbers given and the fact that the numbers are from decently reliable sources, but there is still a lot we do not know on Omicron. I still have massive doubts on the numbers given to us and there will not be any decent reliability until mid January. Yet the speed at which Omicron pushes forward and the amount of people who refuse to be vaccinated, and moreover the large amount of people who refuse to wear masks are now becoming danger factors in all this. 

When you consider the image, it might not mean much, but the percentages (seen elsewhere) are 90%, 70%, 5% and 1.5%. A stage where mandatory masks lower the dangers from up to 90% to 1.5% is a massive decrease and should not be ignored. Yes, you can decide to ignore it but when your family members start dying (become non-living) do not cry like a husky, or blame Medicare, NHS or whatever. You did this (too)! I still have doubts and question marks regarding the numbers given to us, but the stage of other elements were out in the open and even as Omicron is a mild version, if the spread continues as we saw yesterday there is every chance that the hospitals will collapse before February 2022 starts , so if you do not have a relative who is a medical trained person, feel free to reserve your urn or coffin, because this will get bad soon enough (I still doubt the fear mongering 50% increased dead people). Yet the numbers if continues will also mean that the mortality rate exploded because no more medical help was available. 

As far as I can tell there is no data model for me to predict that, too many unknown factors and before you start the blame game, if hospital staff does walk out, it is because of the stupid people attacking and blaming these exhausted medical people in the street (as we can see in loads of YouTube videos). 

I believe in the double check, I believe it was essential to do so and so far my views hold up, but they are under scrutiny of the explosion of cases that were not known when I wrote this and that is why I did the double check, in other news, there is also the ‘missed’ cases of reporting as ABC (Australia) gives us 14 hours ago ‘Omicron spread leads to UK record of 78,610 COVID-19 cases in single day’, yes the 78,610 is correct, but we have no idea HOW MANY of them are Omicron, there will be a decent amount of them (speculation) but in the end we do not know and until that is known there is a larger stage that comes to mind. If a person gets Alpha, Beta or Delta now. Is there a chance they might miss Omicron? This is an important question because it takes us back to 1796. Then English doctor Edward Jenner noticed that milkmaids who had gotten cowpox were protected from smallpox. As such people got injected with the mild version (cowpox) to avoid and be protected from smallpox. (See https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/history/history.html). The event was known to me (I had history in high school), but there could speculatively a case that a similar stage exists (I am not claiming it is). And scientists have made clear statements that previous covid infections may not protect against Omicron, which I tend to believe. You see, the other speculation is done on the premise of the past where was about a very different disease. So we need to be careful and rely on SCIENTISTS to give us the goods and it would really help if the media stops being a FEAR MONGER factor here. 

We have enough problems, it would be best for the media to remember that, because after whatever this was comes to a halt the people will (hopefully) DEMAND that some media outlets lose their 0% VAT rights (as they should not be regarded as newspapers). At that point we get editors crying like little Chihuahua’s that they have a right to expression, but expression and exploitation is not the same and Justice Leveson was clear bout that, was he not?

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One response to “The double check

  1. Pingback: The drop-off no one saw? | Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be

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