That is how it reads, is this the reality of things? That remains to be seen, but as I see it, there is a rolling effect. A news source gave me this morning that IndiGo is starting two new routes. One between Abu Dhabi and Visakhapatnam, the other one is between Abu Dhabi and Bhubaneswar. They represent populations up to 3.2 million people, and that is the direct surroundings of these places. It is important to see that, as that implies that the setting that I predicted that America will lose more and more tourists is starting in this kind of situation. You might give credence to the ‘mumblings’ that this will soon pass over, and perhaps it will. But the direct setting is that those that rely on their one vacation a year, they are choosing Abu Dhabi (and Dubai) over American destinations. So when you decide to trust ‘The US tourism slump that never happened’ (source: Financial Times), or perhaps ‘Desperate U.S. Hotels And Tourism Operators Continue ‘Come Back’ Deals For Canadians’ (source: The travel) you are looking in the wrong direction. Yes, in a few years travel to the USA will bounce back, it is the next three years that matter and in the meantime the UAE is gaining traction in many ways. And over the next three years it will develop into a main destination for the better part of the globe. In the meantime America will be bleeding losses on all sides. And when the bounce back ‘fails’ or more precisely is delayed. The losses for America will merely add up to a lot more.
That is beside the larger setting. You see, Visakhapatnam was in 2020 a finalist in the Living and Inclusion category of the World Smart City Awards. As such travel is interesting both ways, it also has its own share of beaches and it is the 5th busiest port in India, as such commerce is likely to blossom between the two nations. As for Bhubaneswar, is a hub of sports and IT in the country. As such there is a larger interaction possible between the two places. All options that are now a moot setting for the EU and America. And the fact that IndiGo is a low cost airline, the tourists cluster that will have the UAE on their international dreamless will increase rather sharply. We might look at all the ‘wealth’ that travels. But for every wealthy traveller the UAE sees, there will be 50 non-wealthy tourists and this amounts to a lot of visitors. I reckon that IndiGo is merely the first to see that influx of tickets sold. I reckon that by late November everything Indian who dreamt of seeing a Formula 1 race with his or her own eyes will flock to the UAE and that is just for starters. As I see it tickets for Yas Island will be the hottest ticket of the year. With all the extras you get to enjoy, the need for hotels and especially low cost hotels will explode in no time flat.
Just two settings that America is currently missing out on and for the next three years. Have you considered the impact that VISA’s and ‘integrity fee’ options that America thought to help to guide them through. And more bad news in this category (as stated by some for 2026) are discouraging more and more tourists to America and now they have a stellar place to go from March 2024 onwards. And now the setting becomes that more and more are discouraged to visit America as it is seen. The larger setting becomes that Saudi Arabia will from 2027 onwards the next competitors for all these tourists who need a place to go. I reckon that some will chose China as a destination, but the numbers on that remain speculative and is not supported by factual data at present.
Have a great holiday to come in 2025
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 