Where are we heading?

That is the setting that I foresee and it worries me. I ‘accidentally’ stumbled upon an article (at https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramco-Dismisses-Oil-Glut-Narrative-as-Seriously-Exaggerated.html) where we can watch a disturbing element. The headline given is ‘Saudi Aramco Dismisses Oil Glut Narrative as ‘Seriously Exaggerated’’it paused me as oil glut is defined as “An oil glut occurs when the global supply of crude oil significantly exceeds demand, resulting in an oversupply that cannot be fully consumed or sol” it would drive prices down, now we are always ‘in the market’ for cheap oil and even as I never gave credence to a car, I get why we need it. So the article gives us “The International Energy Agency (IEA) this week raised its oil demand growth estimate and expects growth at 930,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, up by 70,000 bpd from last month’s assessment”, so who is the IEA? As given (at the IEA site) “The IEA family is made up of 32 Member countries, 13 Association countries, and 4 Accession countries seeking IEA membership” now for the interesting setting. This setting does include the United States (Brent oil) but does not include Saudi Arabia (Aramco) or the UAE (ADNOC), how do they get to drive down the price and talk about ‘oil demand’? Especially with the two largest contributors missing, oh, and it is also missing Iran and Venezuela. So is this a place where whining individuals start doing the Oliver Twist (please, can I have some more?) And where is the justice in making anyone produce more? Oil is a finite commodity and the nations who have it have every right to get their stock valued as high as possible (which is not in my best interest) but I gather that the United States have their stock in this through Brent Oil. As we are ‘given’ that “In 2024, the U.S. exported approximately 10.7 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum, while importing roughly 8.4 million b/d. The U.S. primarily exports light sweet crude and refined products like gasoline and diesel to over 170 countries.” As such they export 100% of what they import, as such they want the oil as cheap as possible, so their profit margins go up as much as possible. And for them 10,700,000 daily barrels where the price goes down 10%, whilst selling goes u by 5% makes for an interesting spreadsheet. But I do not see that part reflected anywhere do I? As such I wonder who will speak up for Saudi Arabia or the UAE? I personally don’t care that much about Venezuela or Iran but there you have it. A micro economy that is ultimately bending to the will of America and its need for greed. A setting that is not in the interest of either Saudi Arabia or the UAE and we are passing that by for the need of greed?  And when you realise this oil glut is a scenario that the IEA prefers, because they want to spike their profits and that is only possible when they bring oil prices down, but oil will spike and sooner than you think. With these data centers popping out nearly everywhere, the setting gets a much larger spike, because the planet is low on energy resources. And the IEA has you covered there too. They give us “Global electricity generation to supply data centres is projected to grow from 460 TWh in 2024 to over 1000 TWh in 2030 and 1300 TWh in 2035 in the Base Case.” Consider that setting when you consider that the Energy requirements of data centers will more than double over the next 4 years. That comes down to 25% growth a year and the nuclear facilities that are under construction will not come online before 2035. So where will oil stand in that case? I might not care about oil, but when the population of nearly every country will bitch when their petrol prices keep on spiking, year after year.

That is the reality and as I see it, the people ‘needing’ data centers also need oil prices to go down, so how is this fair on Saudi Arabia or the UAE? We seemingly forget on what is fair. The setting is as I see it jumping into the proverbial exploitation setting of the United States and after Venezuela and Greenland, sod we need to give in to the United States, more over can we even consider giving in to this American Administration and its need for greed? They wasted to opportunities they had and they now have a $38,600,000,000,000 debt. I think we have given enough, time to bail out and time to find more responsible people, because some say that greed is eternal, and until now I really never saw it that way. 

We are in a dangerous time and adjusting the ‘economic’ sentiment to what greed America and its vessels have is clearly the wrong move. So whilst the oilprce article gives us “But the market continues to be oversupplied, the Paris-based agency noted. “Indeed, benchmark crude oil prices remain $16/bbl lower than a year ago, reflecting the large global supply surplus that built up over the past 12 months, in line with our forecasts,” the IEA said.” As such the response “Oil glut predictions are seriously exaggerated,” by Aramco’s Nasser seem to be spot on. And it seems he is alone preaching against the choir of greed driven individuals. And as I see it, the IEA seemingly agrees with him. 

So where do we go now?

Have a great day today, I am a mere 150 minutes from breakfast at this time.