Tag Archives: America

October 17, 2013 · 16:16

A new third World continent

At the final moments we see the news that in the 11th hour an agreement had been reached. Should we be happy? For now many will be happy, for now the Financial industry is relaxing and happy that their rent is safe, but the stress will return soon as the next ceiling will be reached in another 18 weeks.

So what is wrong with the USA today?

It sounds all fun and games to blame either the Democrats or the Republicans, yet overall, both have some level of guilt. Yes, at present the Democrats are wearing the hoodie of blame and shame, but the Republicans are not without issues either.

Consider that the government has maxed out the USA credit card. They have until now REFUSED in any way to take responsibility for the utter irresponsible spending. No, taxing more will not solve anything. That story is old, stale and redundant. If America would like to be taken seriously ever again it would have to cut no less than $350 billion in 2014. So, NOT more taxation, but LESSEN spending. That means if all was equal that every American will get $1000 less in support, which means that it would not impact the top 3% of the nation, but the others will have to pay. This is not me supporting the rich, this is me placing ALL politicians in a limelight where every spend dollar will be shown in the spotlight.

The Democrat story will be that they have a solution, and if these people pay just a few dollars more than….. It is nothing less than utter Bullshit! (Pardon my French!) With a debt of 17,000 billion dollar, a budget drop of 350 billion would mean that the interest of the outstanding debt could not be paid for.

On the other side, the Republican side will have to stop this ludicrous boast of less taxation. That is not, cannot and will not be a solution (for at least a decade). The debt must go!

But there might be a solution with the UN. When America has been diminished to a third world nation, then perhaps the UNDP will offer support to the USA. I know, the irony of it all, go figure!

I have remained in favour of the US remaining strong from day 1; however, the Democrats refused to step up to the plate to do what needed to be done. The Republicans had stepped up to the plate, but in hindsight, the result was almost nil and they have not endeared themselves to anyone.

The voiced speeches by the Democrats as they are shown on TV stations all over the world today seem to be in bad taste too. I will make an exception for Democrat Harry Reid from Nevada. He had been in the middle in of what might be called a ‘small hell’. If the Navy Seals are used to be between a rock and a hard place, then this man outclassed them to several degrees these last two weeks, as a Republican minded person I will admit to that. I will go further to say that should Harry Reid go for the oval office, then he stands a chance to convert a decent group of Republicans too. Values like respect and moral coming from Nevada? What a tangled web we see!

For many non-Americans it is not about the pure Democrat versus Republican fight, it has always been about the massive debt and the risk they push upon many other nations. It is even a case that the voice of many non-Americans should be heard. When a nation like America has so many corporations that operate their business outside of the USA and as such put hundreds of thousands of workers on the spot as their futures are linked to the status of the USA, then they must realise that accountability remains an international factor.

On Sky News there is a hilarious movie, shot in old fashioned silent movie style explaining the debt ceiling. It is fun to watch and it tells the story nicely (at http://news.sky.com/story/1155554/shutdown-senators-pass-bill-to-avert-default), I do however disagree with one part of it. At 1:53 Ed Conway states one part I do not agree with. “If America was to default, it is not because it cannot pay its bills. It is because their political system would not allow it“.

That is the part that has been my major issue!

It is what I disagree with. If we consider the T-Bill rate of 2.66 (as it was this morning), to get the 16,700 billion in debt, to pay it back, if it was all in T-bills, then the US had to pay an additional 444 billion dollars in ‘fees’. This seems very very little. However, this was not done in one day; it was over many many years. The problem is that as risk grows, the people will be offered a higher return, because if the debt cannot be paid, those bills will become null and void overnight. In the end, that money must be paid and overall, even though for now it is paid, the outstanding debt as it grows and grows, will mean that the chance of EVER paying it all back will become less and less. Consider that the following amounts are due: 2022: $1276B, 2021: $1228B, 2020: $1652B, 2019: $1885B, 2018: $1017B. So from 2018 onwards, the returns will have to be paid to those T-Bill owners. The amount will be in access of 1 Trillion dollars a year. Can anyone explain to me how that payment can be met 5 years in a row whilst the on average the collected annual taxation in 2013 will be an estimated $1.9 Trillion dollars? This means that from 2018 onwards 53% of all collected taxation will go to people owning T-bills. How unrealistic a goal is this?

This is part of the reality politicians ignore (as they will not be in office when it happens) and the people who gets settled with the bills will not have anything left.

Consider in addition that the Tax evasion bill has not been pushed into effect (which means the rich will continue to have additional tax shelters this year) and the Dodd-Frank Act is STILL not active, giving the financial sector too many non-accountable freedoms (which will make sense late on). If you want to know more about the Dodd-Frank Act, take a look at the next link, it has an interesting cheat sheet on the latter one. (at http://www.mofo.com/files/uploads/images/summarydoddfrankact.pdf). Morrison & Foerster is a global law firm. It might have been for internal use, so send them a thank you note if you download it. It is the easiest read in regards to this topic I have ever seen. They also have Patent and Trademark litigation, so I should send them my resume when I get my MIP after my next semester. Cool!

If you wonder about that reasoning after my strong voiced disgruntlement, then remember that the US is a great country. In my mind it was sold down the drain by politicians and exploiters. If we muzzle the first and neuter the second, the US could be a great nation quite quickly again, which would be good for Europe too. A win-win solution I say!

So why aren’t more people nervous about the entire deficit and debt ceiling? That is the part that does not make sense to me. Rolling over debts is a dangerous habit. The definition is clear enough, the dangers on adverse percentages is even more risky as politicians played 11^th hour resolution makers. The second part is one that many more are ignoring. This is all based upon 100% of the due payments rolling over. What happens when another nation has a slightly stronger return? What happens when only 80% is sold? Is that such a hard concept? So at that point, where will the required $200B-$275B come from, additional raise of the debt ceiling? I have no actual facts to work from, so I do not know what the level of risk is, but consider that between 2018-2022 no less than $1T in investments are needed, and that the larger wallet friends (like the UK, FR, DE, IT and AUS) many of them at the maximum tapped out amount. How long until THEY (read governments) start the ‘swap’ game? Is that not how we lost most of what we had because we could not control the banks, now we let them advice on the same game, but now with full government budgets? So, we will not be looking at just a few trillion, when that game goes bust (and such a game always goes bust), the population will be stuck with a bill between $70T and $90T. How will we survive that?

Let us not forget that all those actions are taken in closed rooms with only a few insiders fully in the loop. If the next election causes reasoning for full disclosure on such events and only a referendum will allow for this, then the game will not just change fast, it will leave the USA on the outside looking in. A fact is that this risk grows almost exponentially each year the deficit is not dealt with. If Germany has been under pressure for the EU issues from Bernd Lucke and the UK from Nigel Farage from UKIP then we should expect additional players who will be fueling these fears. The upcoming price fight might not yet be the main event, but the debt ceiling issue that comes after the one on February 9^th will be a main event and it will likely involve more players then just the US, several of them are unlikely to be one of the 18 Bernanke disciples.

So here we are, and only hours after Jill Treanor wrote her article ‘Financial Conduct Authority launches currency markets investigation‘ on the Guardian at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/oct/16/financial-conduct-authority-currency-markets-investigation-benchmarks.

This is a must to read!

Guardian’s Youthful Young City Editor, all complete with her own copy of SAS Miner plugged into her brain started today with “Suspicions that the vast global currency markets may have been rigged by major banks and traders has sparked the City regulator to launch a formal investigation into the £3tn a day market.”

This goes way further than just the LIBOR scandal. Earlier this year I had some doubts on all of this. My doubts were not on the interest part; my thoughts were that the main amount involved, which the percentages were based upon had also been tampered with in some way as well. I still expect my $1T bonus when that gets to be proven!

So what if the benchmark is not JUST the foundation, but part of more. You see, if we consider that governments have been involved in T-Bill Swaps, then the tradeable amount involved is not correct. More precisely, if the volume of T-Bill swaps is to the amount deficits go, then in which direction are the percentages rigged? It might accidentally involve the ‘accidental’ mentioned group of larger wallet friends. Now consider that Germany at present is the only one with an economy more on the stable and positive side then all the other players. So, would there be additional benefits for them in the long run? I actually do not know this (self-confessed lack of economic education), but the fact is that these issues go far beyond the banks themselves. Perhaps that is why the Dodd-Frank Act was never activated? It is just a thought.

So my advice for today, instead of long term investing your $5, this morning, have a pastry with your coffee, because at times there is nothing better than short term gratification and pastries will usually do the trick.

More than just Syria

The news has started to illustrate the issue I expected. I stated in my blog on September 20th “What we know about AQ is that they are about them and their needs“. That part is now coming to fruition. As ISIL they are now the third party in a civil war between two parties. My initial personal view is for President Assad and his opposition to come to an agreement and unite in a hunt for the members of ISIL/AQ, paving the way to some form of a seize fire.

Not doing so, will escalate this civil war in a plain hunt for lives who did not agree with the sharia convictions of ISIL/AQ. As Sky News now broadcasts how the victims of Syrian events are smuggled into Israeli Military Hospital where these victims are receiving lifesaving first aid and operations. A Samaritan act that will never be voiced by the victims they saved in fear of deadly reprisals. (At: http://news.sky.com/story/1147748/wounded-syrians-left-bleeding-with-the-enemy).

Isn’t it interesting that these so called Muslim ‘warriors’ are there just to ‘support’ one very specific version of Muslim faith. More important, the acts give weight to actually start open military intervention. In response to the article by the BBC (at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23925037), which stand point I do support. We are now faced with their tactical blunder which we should exploit. This does however require the support of President Assad. My initial assessment is gaining weight, which was more on the side of the Russian stance that Assad was not the one firing the chemical weapons. As I had stated in my earlier blog, it would make sense that an AQ attack to draw America and Israel into this conflict was the fuse to a powder keg. As the initial attack did not happen, ISIL is now actively attacking ‘their’ enemies. When we consider the September 19th report by Reuters (at http://www.reuters.com/article/2013_/09/19/us-syria-crisis-turkey-idUSBRE98I0C120130919)

This ‘game’ had been about de-stabilisation from the very start. As stated by me “AQ only cares for AQ” and as such, any diplomatic option towards AQ should be classified as null and void.

Yet this will take orchestration of some size, yet as AQ made the mistake of getting too close to the Turkish border, the issues could change if any attack on Turkey commences. At that point the NATO members have no option but to come to the aid of Turkey, also, the Turkish President Abdullah Gul would gain massive support and popularity should it get forced into a direct conflict with AQ forces, now trying to overrun Syrian areas. These events also change the game in other ways. AQ has zero support from Russia (in light of their Chechnyan ‘friends’) and at this point the turning table exists for Iran. If they decide not to get involved, which would be fair enough, the end result remains the same; AQ would have to go it alone, with their former temporary friends as well as the Government forces of President Assad at their throats. The bottle neck comes as NATO/Turkey slam down the box in the final side. AQ will cause massive amounts of damage. That is unlikely to be prevented. This is also where I do not completely support the Guardian article by Sarah Margon (at http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/20/sarin-gas-syria-icc). The quote “Opposition forces have also committed serious abuses, increasingly resorting to executions and indiscriminate shelling of government-held areas.” might not be incorrect, but it might be incomplete. If AQ is part of the opposition, then we must see whether this was an actual act by what is called the ‘moderate’ opposition forces, or are these events the work of AQ and AQ minded opposition forces. So Syria is now clearly less clear cut. It is a civil war with three parties, each with their own agenda.

As such the question grows, why should we get involved? No matter how the Syrian civil war goes. If AQ is not dealt with, they will flame out wreaking havoc on both Jordan and Israel. In addition, AQ is pushing forward with pressures against Egyptian forces as well as attacks on Israel. Reuters reported yesterday the Sinai attack (at http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/28/us-egypt-sinai-idUSBRE98R09220130928). It will take massive amounts of discipline for Israel to keep their cool for now. Should the IDF face these attacks on the north side, as well as attacks on the Sinai Eilat side, then we, successful or not, will have to face the consequences. There are also financial repercussions. In a BBC newscast, from last November “This still means that as of Saturday night Israel had spent roughly $29m on interceptor missiles in three days.” The IDF has an Iron Dome presence, yet how much financial pressure is it under at present?

There is a linked view, which comes from the Heritage foundation, an American Think-tank. The article was by Baker Spring and Michaela Dodge. Baker is a Research Fellow in National Security Policy and Michaela is a Research Assistant for Missile Defense and Foreign Policy, so they do know their missiles. Their quote “Each Iron Dome Tamir interceptor costs more than $100,000 to produce. This is many times the cost of a Grad, Qassam, Katyusha-style rockets. But there is more to assessing the cost effectiveness of a defensive system such as Iron Dome than a simple calculation of the cost of an additional defensive interceptor compared to the cost of an additional offensive rockets.” is on target. Their assessment makes the issues not as clear cut, but what is clear is no matter which approach AQ is taking, Israel will feel tremendous pressures as these events drag on and they are not the only one.

Jordan is facing massive pressures through the Syrian refugees. The Guardian reported some of this (at http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/25/syrian-refugee-crisis-in-numbers-updated). This article is focussed on the numbers. It does mention the fact that Syria is short on roughly $2B to get anything done. What is less shown is that Jordan was never known for an abundance of resources, especially water. With an additional 3 million mouths to fill those resources will dwindle down to nil quite quickly. Consider that it will need an additional 2 million gallons of water a day, an amount that will run Jordan dry really fast. You can see how Jordan’s goose gets dry cooked. If these numbers mean little, then consider that with a water scarcity in place, their population due to refugees has grown by 50%, all because of the Syrian civil war. A possible solution would be if we could find some solution in Aqaba. It is not a quick solution, yet the option of running a pipeline from the Sinai through Eilat to Aqaba, giving all parties relief might be an option. As that part of the Sinai is in MFO buffer zone C, and if both Egypt and Israel would agree on it, then there would be an accessible place that is in ‘neutral’ space for now, allowing relief to both Israel and Jordan as they are trying to deal with water shortages for the Syrian refugees. This option might also allow for some agricultural solutions, which would deal with the long term issues that will pop up. The AQ would have to be hunted out of the Sinai, but in that regard both Israel and Egypt agree.

Why there? If that region is to have any future, then anything we start now; any action that allows for a growth of tourism in that region, like a second Sharm-El-Sheik, but next to (or close to) Eilat, could in time be the financial infuse that could grow that region to some level of prosperity. Europe and America are now in a low curve, but it will not stay that way. In addition, as tourism grows business. This option has all the makings for finding a long term peaceful solution. It could become an option which will always be a better one than non-stop flooding the region with money and goods.

In my mind (oversimplified, I admit), I see this as a solution. The Dutch are massive experts in Greenhouses. Consider that these are build close to a water plant in the Sinai, Around Eilat, Israel and close to Aqaba, Jordan. So if we can get the water there, in some form, but likely via tankers, there could be an actual push for peaceful reform. We need to get food there in several ways. Finding a way to grow some of it will down the track be the cheapest and it would start real change.

Even though this Powder keg known as the Middle East has been lit and AQ is the fuse, would it not be the master of all Ironies if Al-Qaeda becomes the glue that actually sets in place some lasting form of peace? As, whoever is running Al Qaeda, faces a possible future where a peaceful Middle Eastern alliance develops with Israel as an accepted partner by all and it was thanks to AQ. Would the howling laughter of people not drive him (or her) insane?

Graveyards and politicians both love irony in equal measure, let’s make it so!

I miss the cold war

It is a line from a movie, yet at times that is how I feel. Most of the elderly who served will likely feel the same. We had a common goal and a common enemy. We ‘feared’ the values that would be given to us by the Iron curtain. Then something happened, they seemingly went bankrupt. Not unlike India, Russia now has the fastest growing numbers of billionaires on the planet. Yet, the numbers do not add up. This relates to what happens today in Syria. No matter how the events in Syria began and I will admit, I know not when that premise there changed, but it had. The roughest of estimations would be that somewhere in September 2012 the game changed. I believe that it was before the UNHRC statements of September 28th (now exactly a year ago). Those against were China, Cuba and Russia. China seems to have been ‘sincere’ in their deliberations and Cuba did what Russia asked. Russia changed the game. In their minds this would be the beginning of a new cold war. There is one massive difference. This time we would likely lose!

The factors involved are a nothing less than an incompetent American administration. As the banking issues had hit them, their inability to solve or reacquire anything, with in addition two very expansive and expensive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq had depleted the American coffers to less than nothing. When two parties are not in agreement, then the winner hits when the other party is down for the count, words spoken before by several parties and ignored or silenced by greed driven parties. Edward Snowden was not part of this in any way. I think this is the one lucky break both Russia and China never expected to see. You see, there are ripples connected to that. If the NSA has breaches to this extent, there would be a chance or even nothing less than likely that GCHQ (UK) might have similar flaws. Unlike their building, the donut, which has a hole in the middle, they will have a hole somewhere. If it does exist, then it is in the technology and not likely in the people they have. I reckon that I count myself to that cause where we protect and preserve the monarchy, even if I am just an Australian. The fact is that if technology was unable to stop Snowden, then it is not unrealistic that GCHQ has similar flaws, especially as GCHQ is given a mere fraction of resources the NSA gets on an annual base.

There is supporting evidence to these thoughts. The ALLEGED hacking of the UN building might count. If the alphabet groups were aware that there are issues with any upcoming cold war, then knowing as much as possible is essential. This could have driven the events if the hacking of the UN was a fact. Why the video conferencing? It was not about getting the voice feed, which is not too hard; it is however to find and identify people through the video link(s). If there is a new cold war brewing, knowing where certain people are is an actual must. If we can believe ‘Der Spiegel’ then staff members from the NSA had been tracking their wives. Leave it to some idiotic American to use these resources to keep an eye on his wife instead of giving her the orgasms she was entitled to (at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/30/nsa-spying-europe-claims-us-eu-trade)

Yet back to the Syrian chess pieces. Assad, or as he should be known now as ‘Pinocchio 2’ has been doing the things that Russia wanted them to do. Slowly moving him and whatever reasoning he has (whether valid or not), to instil the safety and security of his current position. Yet that part is actually slowly but surely being forfeit. Russia needs the UK, France and US to intervene. Consider that this intervention will drain troops and costs in excess of 200 billion Euros. After that Pinocchio’s strings can be cut, his role will have been played out. This will not be a quick step and a likely aftermath of no less than 2 additional years. That is all they need to stop economic restoration. It is all they need to ensure an upcoming advantage.

Russia has been handed a massive advantage by several parties involved.

Are we considering suspending humanitarian laws in the UK? In the UK it is Home secretary Theresa May who stated “Britain should consider leaving the European Convention on Human Rights because it interferes with the government’s ability to fight crime and control immigration, Home Secretary Theresa May said on Saturday (9 March)”. Leaving the European Convention on Human Rights does not mean that the UK is abolishing Human rights all together, yet, taking into account the dwindling support for legal aid is a clear second part of this. For Russia it will be the flag they raise to state that Western values are flawed, to be suspended when times get hard. They would be correct. Instead of stopping greed driving consumption and acquisition we enabled it for too long.

Back to Syria!

At present the game has changed. We see carefully phrased denials, the game to postpone. In addition we saw an interview with an Assad loyalist, claiming he was a victim of a chemical attack by the Syrian opposition. Did anyone notice that the video’s from the Syrian opposition were people hardly able to speak and hardly able to breath. The Syrian soldier was in a hospital looking no worse than someone going there for a broken toe. Interesting that this was not that illuminated by the journalist. The fact that one soldier seemed to be in the crossfire whilst dozens of dead civilians, children and Syrian opposing troops on the other side. Let’s call a spade a spade shall we?

The conference by Walid al-Muallim did not help the Syrian cause either. They went one step further by now implying that Israel is now a likely strike point. Now let’s disseminate their ‘statements’. From Fox news we see the statement by Mohammed Javad Zarif: “We are in close contact with the Syrian government and they have reassured us that they had never used such inhumane weapons and would have the fullest cooperation with the U.N. experts to visit the areas affected.” (At http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/08/25/us-naval-forces-move-closer-to-syria-hagel-suggests)

Really? Then why were these investigators stopped for a week? Their promises are hollow for the simple reason that whatever attack the opposition made would be a danger to any chance the opposition has, whatever attack Syria made on these investigators would condemn them. Not reporting anything is in Syria’s interest. The simple truth at present is that both Israel and Jordan prefer to stay out of the way as much as possible. Israel needs to wait whether Hamas or Hezbollah will start attacking Israel first. If Israel is part of the attack to Syria, then both Hamas and Hezbollah will launch strikes on Israel, this is why Walid al-Muallim adds Israel to the mix. In addition, Russians next puppet is about to enter the field. In an age where we thought that the tension between Iran and the west would lighten up, the Iranian news reported the following: “The Iranian ambassador to Russia says the Islamic Republic can play a ‘constructive role’ in the Geneva 2 conference which is expected to be held on the Syrian crisis.” Of course Russians motive is simple, whatever happens they win. If Iran fails, then the tension on Iran versus West lights up again, if they win America looks weak and in addition Russia makes another billion for loads of concrete for a ‘power plant’ (and then some more including a dozen 7 figure bonuses). In addition, these talks will show initial failings and weaknesses for the Americans as the west will not interfere with Syria and the ‘red line’ Syria crossed.

These are the facts behind certain strategies and in addition most of them are public. The parts that are not that visible were those that were brought to light by Wikileaks. We could argue that those illustrated involving Brown Lloyd James were to be investigated, yet, is that an actual truth? If we consider their mission statement which is “BLJ crafts high-impact communication strategies that move diplomacy forward.” then it might not be the pure smell of Lavender, yet, we should not forget that Assad is still the sovereign ruler of Syria, if BLJ keeps diplomatic channels open, then that is not a bad thing.

How are these events linked?

That is part of the issue. Even though the UK wants and could enter the field to intercept Syrian chemical war abilities, PM David Cameron will go via Parliament (even though not officially needed). When the vote is up, consider who will oppose this and how many of them have had dealings with BLJ. It might make for an interesting picture. The other part where BLJ becomes visible through one of its executives (Mike Holtzman) was an article that goes back to 2003. In that part it was the quote “A solid majority of Americans-over fifty percent-believe the U.S. should lift restrictions on Americans’ freedom to travel to Cuba, allow U.S.-produced food and medical products to be sold to Cuba unimpeded and take steps toward normalization with Cuba as a matter of America’s national interest.” At present the Cuban travel embargo still exists. There are more connections that Mike Holtzman had, and many of them in his work serving both Syria and Cuba, so where does he truly stand? Let me be clear! This man broke no laws, is doing his work and chose his customers as he is allowed to choose them (even though many would call the choice questionable). Yet, in the light of Russia-Cuba and the issues at play we must wonder whether a second cold war has started, or is about to start. That evidence can be seen in several places, many of them public newspapers. The issues that the US has in regards Edward Snowden as well as the issues many nations have with Russian’s anti-Gay approach do not help to diminish tensions (its not like the Russians actually cared about them tensions).

They (the Russians) do play this type of chess game well. As they stated “In connection with this, the Russian side calls for [Washington to] refrain from the threat of force on Damascus, to not fall for provocations and to try to help create normal conditions to give the UN chemical experts’ mission, which is already in the country, the possibility of conducting a thorough, objective and impartial investigation” the foreign ministry statement said (as published by the Guardian), we see that the delays from snipers and administration, the only outcome is that the UN inspectors will now be unlikely to uncover evidence to point to a clear transgressor. No matter who wins that part, no action will only show weakness on the American shores, which serves Moscow, Havana and Beijing just fine.

So is there an actual second cold war? I honestly do not know, but plenty of events are there to turn my ‘Do not know‘ into a very strong ‘likely‘.

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A new third World continent

More than just Syria

I miss the cold war

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