Tag Archives: DDG-1000

In pieces

When was the last time you went out and researched something? For me it started 83.4 minutes ago (roughly), to fight insomnia (meeting it half way) I decided to do a puzzle, and as I was completing the puzzle, I became mesmerised by the picture in the puzzle. The house is one of the most beautiful buildings I have ever seen. It turns out that it is a traditional maramures monk house in Romania, the image is from Adrian Domokos (at https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/traditional-maramures-monk-house-1190795452). I soon found a few other examples, but for some reason Adrian captured something the others did not and I cannot get the right words to describe it. Yet the house is printed on my mind, and as my mind is working out other things it is also converting that very same house to a Minecraft place of living. You might not get that, which is fair enough, but my mind captures things and recreates it in different dimensions, sometimes for fun, sometimes for other reasons. 

I am (at times) hesitant to let the mind wonder freely, not merely because it tends to lead to insomnia, in other cases it got me to design something to sink the Iranian fleet with (one needs goals after all), yet when I was rethinking the weapon and its delivery system I considered that this solution would also work on that ugly American contraption called the Zumwalt class, and lets be fair, that thing is way too ugly to not make it sink, especially as Defense News gave us yesterday ‘US Navy eyes new design for next-generation destroyer’, as such we get “I don’t want to build a monstrosity. But I need deeper magazines on ships than I have right now,” the chief of naval operations said. “I’m limited with respect to DDG Flight IIIs in terms of what additional stuff we could put on those ships. … So the idea is to come up with the next destroyer, and that would be a new hull. The idea would be to put existing technologies on that hull and update and modernise those capabilities over time”, the added “To avoid another costly failure, such as the canceled next-generation cruiser or severely truncated DDG-1000 program, the service is harkening back to its successful Arleigh Burke program, the mainstay of the Navy’s surface combatant program for the past 30 years”. A program with in mind building 32 dinghy’s and 29 of them got cancelled, the there three never properly worked. A wasted $22.5 billion, well, let’s consider that it is not much if you say it fast (I dare you). And when we consider that “the Zumwalt had been sold to Congress based on unrealistic minimum-cost estimates. Eventually, program costs exceeded the budget by 50 percent, triggering an automatic cancelation”, so in light of the unrealistic minimum cost estimates, did anyone go to jail? Did these estimators get paid? So we have a stage where my 5G solutions require ‘assurances’ for the $25,000,000 initial part whilst the $22,500,000,000 sails into the deep end without any problems (or assurances for that matter)? Oh and that is all before we consider these so called smart bullet, the ones that Congress would not approve as it was well over $1,000,000 per shot, How much was sunk into that part? 

So the rebel rouser in me thought it might optionally be a nice idea to try the new weapon system called ‘Gordian One’ on the USS Zumwalt, you know, before we piss off all the Iranians, and lets be honest, there might be some congratulatory slap on the back in it for me from an American Admiral or two (isn’t that why we tend to be innovative?), ahh well, such is life I say!

And lets face it, no one asked anything about the Zumwalt class and what the need was to ignore the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer. We know that the Zumwalt was designed and build for a very different kind of war, one that it was not able to do in the first place, but let’s not haggle on those details. And all this is before you realise that the Zumwalt class (compared to the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer) is almost 987% more expensive, so how exactly do we need to see the setting of ‘minimum-cost estimates’, me thinks that someone was buttering their bread on both sides other thickly, yet that is merely my personal train of thought. 

So whilst we look at one and the other, why was there so much about some traditional maramures monk house in Romania? Well, that is linked to the topic of Copyright Law and the nice setting of some silly bugger registering a few pieces of paper and forgot a setting or two with a few documents, which gave me the idea as I looked at the hull alloys and you see, the setting of a Tumblehome wave piercing hull sounds nice, but there are constraints too and that is where I started to wonder, if it sinks the Iranian fleet, the Zumwalt might not really have a chance either. In addition, even if Gordian One does not do its intended purpose, the stability of the Zumwalt will change enough for it to sink itself (which might be poetic justice in its own right). 

So whilst the USNI News reports that ‘Navy Lacks ‘Clear Theory of Victory’ Needed to Build New Fleet, Experts Tell House Panel’, I decided to gain victory by building a weapon system that achieved more than one goal (not telling the kids at present), and as that is shown to work and the delivery system works (not tested yet), we see a stage where Bryan Clark, a naval analyst and a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute gives us “We don’t really have that clear theory of victory or operational concept today”, OK, here at this point I take one step back and if I misreported on his quote then I apologise (I tend to not have access to confidential US Navy events), yet if I did voice it correctly, we have a much larger problem. If it is true that the Navy is in doubt on ‘clear theory of victory’ or on ‘operational concept’, which flagrant yahoo of a milk-dud admiral approved the stage of the extremely sinkable Zumwalt Class? It seems to me that clear stages leading to victory and a natural need of irrational concepts is essential for any new boat, submarine, dinghy or pleasure cruiser (Spearhead-class). And if the staged speculated theory of victory is not visible, no Zumwalt class should ever exist. That was clear from day one, was it not? Here we go back to the beginning, traditional maramures monk house in Romania had a set stage, a stage it still fulfils almost a century after it is build, the Zumwalt has been unable to meet basic standards from day one, and people wonder why I want to test a new weapon system on it? Well, consider that I would never test it on the Blue Ridge, as that ship after 47 years is still working to near perfect levels of excellence, the USS Blue Ridge (LCC-19) is expected to get its retirement in 20 years, however there is every chance that it could function until deep past 2055, when we see these events, when we see these parts of success, can we at least begin to understand what an utter failure the Zumwalt class is? 

So with the stage of the Zumwalt being uglier than a really old building in Romania and less functional than pretty much anything in the US Navy, I leave you to try and tackle my other needs. Have a great day!

Leave a comment

Filed under Military, Politics, Science

What possessed them?

The LA Times brought us the article ‘The Navy’s newest destroyer, the Michael Monsoor, is as much an experiment as a ship-killer‘ (at https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-michael-monsoor-zumwalt-20190126-story.html) a few days ago. My personal view is that it is the ugliest vessel I have so far ever seen. Now, for a functioning being pretty, pleasing or even appealing is not a requirement. It needs to be the killer that scares every other killer and even there it falls a little flat.

The initial consideration for laughter is seen when we consider the line “In the end, what was once intended to be a class of 32 destroyers will now be only three — making for a per-ship cost of about $4.4 billion, according to a December 2016 estimate by the Government Accountability Office, the most recent cost estimate available. Including development costs, that number balloons to $8.2 billion, the GAO said“, so basically the US gets three dinghies for a mere twenty four billion dollars (aka $24,000,000,000), or twenty four thousand million

Three mechanical driven rowboats that amounts to one third of the entire US national budget on education, how perverse is that? Well, it is their tight to choose of course. Yet when we learn that “Despite the higher price, the two advanced gun systems have no ammunition, cancelled because of cost“, a smart bullet system that costs $1,000,000 per round. With the added “The gun’s shells were to be rocket-propelled, guided by GPS and loaded by simply pressing a button“, we are treated to a system that congress will not fuel with ammunition. That is the foundation of a failed and sunk project whilst the vessel is for now still afloat. It was even more fun to learn that optionally the system I designed to sink the Iranian fleet could also be used here, giving us an optional $135,000 solution to drown a $8,300,000,000 mishap, how is that not return on investment? On my side that is!

Do not get me wrong, the US is our ally and I have no such inclinations, my focus was sinking the Iranian ego trippers, I merely found it interesting to know that for a stealth boat, any stealth boat has a similar weakness and mine was set to kick the Iranian dinghies a little, so I take no pleasure that my solution is likely to work there too and it shows the failing of a design and project to be much larger than anyone considered, giving us all a lot more to ponder, because some elements should have been clearly seen on the drawing table and it seemingly was overlooked to such a large extent.

The second part in the mishap is seen when we consider that the design was awarded in 2008, laid down in 2011, launched in 2013, christened in 2014 and repurposed in December 2017 with ‘New Requirements for DDG-1000 Focus on Surface Strike

When USNI News gives us (at https://news.usni.org/2017/12/04/navy-refocus-ddg-1000-surface-strike) “The Navy is revamping the Zumwalt-class destroyer’s requirements and will morph it into a focused surface strike platform, the director of surface warfare (OPNAV N96) told USNI News today” Are you kidding me? After 8 billion and change, a path that spans 10 years (with all the fiasco’s on the internet), we see the calling of ”revamping’ instead of loudly calling the entire Zumwalt class a failure? Did the $1,000,000 per shot not give a clear indication that something extremely weird was afoot? Was there no quality calculation showing us that some implementations were not realistic and that a system like this having a flaw that might be swallowed by a $135,000 could spell a lot of trouble in any direction?

I feel particularly concerned with Rear Adm. Ron Boxall when we see: “I was very pleased with where we came out because some of the decisions were much more about the concept of what we’re getting instead of the actual platform we’re getting“. To him I would go (off course in an informal way) with: “Robby, pal, when the betrothed concept is too far from the begotten actual, we need to consider, ‘product fraud’ (you did not get what you ordered), we can go with ‘failure’ (they did not deliver what was promised) and we certainly need to go with ‘fiasco’ (congress will not allow you to purchase the bullets that the dinghy fires)“, so overall there are three levels of non-success to consider on a whole range of issues that these three puppies have and lets not call them ‘ship-killers’ ever, OK?

And when we see “at the same time look at some of the challenges we’ve had. It’s no surprise, we have some very expensive bills still outstanding with the LRLAP (Long-Range Land-Attack Projectile)” so is that a way to state that invoices were unpaid, or that paid invoices have not met practical delivery? The question is out in the open, because we can go in a few directions. It becomes a larger issue when we see the NY Times Magazine (at https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/06/magazine/navy-gunfire-ammunition.html). Here we see: “All three of the failed projectile programs had similar design features and shared a fundamental conceptual problem. “When you try to make a rocket-boosted projectile that can steer itself to a target, you basically have built a guided missile,” said Tony DiGiulian, a retired engineer who has studied all these weapons“, with the added “So why not just build missiles in the first place?” he said. “That’s what you’ll end up with anyway” at the very end, yet leave it to an engineer to apply common sense to an optional working solution. What stopped you guys? Too much outstanding issues with Raytheon and Northrop Grumman? I could have told you that part and I am certain that the navy has scores of common sense people around, still the eight billion was spend and congress will not foot $600 million for a full armory of shells, is anyone surprised?

So not only are we confronted with “the Navy then spent $700 million to have BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin develop the Long Range Land Attack Projectile for the Zumwalt deck gun. It also came to nothing” with an added “rivaling the cost of the Tomahawk cruise missile, which has a 1,000-mile range“. And now we are treated to: “they are evaluating a new shell, called the “hypervelocity projectile,” that is lighter and narrower and could potentially be fired from the upgraded five-inch guns at targets 40 miles away. The program is experimental and in its early stages, and it is unlikely to produce a viable weapon soon“. So not only is the US Navy in a phase where they have nothing, they have been in an 11 year phase of denial and unsupported science fiction ideas that went nowhere with an optional total bill of $256 billion, averted to a mere twenty four billion by scrapping 29 (ugly) vessels.

The fun part is that there was an option to consider, weirdly enough it was not DARPA or the US Navy who came up with the idea; it was film director Jon Favreau who had the brainwave in 2009. Yes, it was a drone used in the movie Iron Man 2. Yet the idea is far less weird and less science fiction then you might think. The air force has its drones, yet the navy could have deployed its own drones, vessel drones are not a myth and even as they are not stealth, they are small enough to get in quick, fire and get out, with a Zumwalt cruiser as a home base. So when we see: “We just doubled the range of our artillery at Yuma Proving Ground,” Gen. John Murray, Commanding General of Army Futures Command, told reporters at the Association of the United States Army Annual Symposium“, we see that the Army has one part of the equation and that droning that solution might have saved the US treasury a few billions. The drones will not endanger manpower, the drones do not required oxygen and can approach submerged and all that at a fraction of the cost, was that so hard to figure out?

Now we get that the brief was never about drones, yet when you try to find a 2010 solution for a 1988 version of smart bullets (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfGnUzGRIuY) we need to consider that someone spending billion to not get there was a terrible idea from the moment the first invoice was paid.

Did I oversimplify the issue?

Let’s also realise that the road to triumph is paved with failures, that makes sense, as not every solution is the breakthrough we aim for, more precisely the failures tend to contribute to future success, yet in this case there seems to have been a lack of common sense on a whole spectrum of issues (or so it seems). And it is there where we see the issue in the larger field, especially with all the failures that seem to define the Zumwalt class, especially as the bulk will be shoved under the carpet through ‘revamping’.

In addition, when we revisit General Murray and consider the quote: “A 70-kilometer target range is, by any estimation, a substantial leap forward for artillery; when GPS guided precision 155mm artillery rounds, such as Excalibur, burst into land combat about ten years ago – its strike range was reported at roughly 30 kilometers. A self-propelled Howitzer able to hit 70-kilometers puts the weapon on par with some of the Army’s advanced land-based rockets – such as its precision-enabled Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System which also reaches 70-kilometers“, what would stop us from adding a drone part in there? Not in the launch, but in the shell itself. Consider the simplicity, when there is one shot, there is a lot less cyber security needed, that whilst the vision for the drone operator is merely the need to adjust the trajectory and there are accurate low expense solutions there. The initial cyber part is not too expensive and merely requires a 240-300 second fail-safe on hacking, there are plenty of solutions there. When we consider that an artillery round could be adjusted, the enemy needs to know the frequency, the codes and the option to interfere, the drone operator might not have to do anything and merely need to lock out changes at some point. An optional 12% increase on a 89% certain hit, making every shot a hit, a better result could not be asked for, so when you consider my ad-hoc idea (open to loads of scrutiny at present), we are still left with the ‘what on earth possessed them in the first place‘, we get it, the defense gravy train is very lucrative, but to revamp the brief on a 24 billion fiasco that was 10 years in the running is taking the mickey out of the entire train ride (staff, fellow travelers and equipment).

War never changes, the technology does but at some point we are confronted with the simplicity of common sense and adjusting the view towards another direction would not have been considered and preferably before the ship was launched might not have been the worst idea. If an optional solution to force a reactor meltdown is seen in a snow globe, what other ideas have not been looked at? Even when we look at it from a complete non-military way, what other options have we never investigated?

It is the same for 5G, when we consider that not the telecom operator but the consumer is at the heart of it all, we see a whole new range of solutions that brings new technologies, and new innovation and they can lead to new services and new foundations of income and profit of course.

 

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Military, Politics, Science