Tag Archives: Germany

G8 on a bicycle ride

Today, like most days, it is good to get this little jolt of inspiration by Dutch news bringer NOS (www.nos.nl). They illustrated a specific situation where the banks are failing. Whether it is intentional, short sighted or lack of whatever they claim. Banks are not doing their jobs. They have turned into commercial enterprises at the expense of everyone.

We all know that money is tight. We do not have anything to spend, and when I see something interestingly innovative that it could better both consumer and economy then it becomes a matter of public scrutiny, whether some should be allowed to continue the way they are and the way they are clearly not properly doing ‘their’ business.

Of course, the reality is that the Spanish banks are pretty much utterly bankrupt. So if a bank is described as “the connection between customers that have capital deficits and customers with capital surpluses.” So what should we think when the bank itself has come to severe deficit.

When a bank is subject to regulations, guidelines and requirements, I wonder if some should be allowed to call themselves banks. In addition, I am starting to have a few serious concerns in regards to these regulations and guidelines at present. If banks are supposed to have a decent foundation of reserves, the notion that a good idea failing moving towards to a profitable niche should raise questions.

A step requiring no more than 3 million Euro! This bounced as banks seemed to have ‘other’ priorities. When banks that seem to have billions vested in something and according to Basel III are required certain reserves. What on earth is going on?

Consider that a bank has EVERY cent levied in one way or another in a nation with over 25% unemployment rate; I would say that something seems to be wrong in my book. It should be considered that these banks are serving a population group by letting them skate on dangerous thin ice, which is how I see it. Of course the opposing view might be very true. It might be an idea that the banks see as a not so profitable one. Yet, the fact that this design is getting international interest seems to give weight to the designers view, not the banks view.

So what caused all this?

I grew up in the Netherlands, a nation that used to have a massive national monopoly on bicycles. Bicycles were almost 1:1 for every person living in that country. Cars were still a rarity. Today, places like Amsterdam, Leiden and Rotterdam rely on bicycle (especially the student population). I remember having to go 9 kilometres every day to school. So that was a daily 18 Km ride! Those were the days! So, even though I’ve resided in places like London and Sydney, where the rider of a bicycle has less of a chance then Bambi in a deer hunt, I remain optimistic towards the needs of bicycles on a global scale.

In addition, we could consider places like France, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, Germany, Denmark and several other places to realise that finding an investment like a novel version of the bicycle into a new era is a massive thing. The chance for an investor of getting a possible corner in the market with 3 million Euro should wake up those who have cash. Seeing it could also infuse the economy of Spain, then that investment seems a lot less like a gamble. I would like to add, that if I had the money I would run to that opportunity.

So, here we are!

A Spaniard called Eduard Sentis has come up with something so innovative it is hard to grasp that no one came up with it. He calls it the Urbike. When we think of bicycles, then we should consider the downsides. For me over history that has been two parts. The first is the danger of flat tires. Eduard gave an old idea new breath with a solid tyre, so no punctures ever. The second is that the chain of the bike can get dislodged. No problems, Eduard added a bicycle version of a shaft drive. So the two downsides I lived with are gone. It even comes with a navigator that is seriously rain and shockproof. (http://www.designboom.com/design/urbikes-by-eduard-sentis/)

This is innovation where no one had looked to for some time, or perhaps they did and the timing was off.

Why would people buy a bicycle? Consider that cars become more and more expensive, fuel prices go up and when you live against a wave of mounting costs then the old way could be the best way to get anywhere. Many will come up with excuses not to consider the car, but then, be honest! Do you really need a car to get bread and milk from the grocer? Do you really need to get to friends nearby in cars?

All that waste of money and then consider all those online options you get from those insurers after answering a ‘few’ questions. For the most you do not ever ask that much detail from the person you have intimate sex with, question after question! NOT ONE gave me a simple answer. They will claim that answers are not that simple. A bicycle is simple. You sit on it and drive. You should get some insurance, but it should be nowhere near the cost of a car insurance.

We seem to ignore in many places the fact that we all could use the workout a bicycle gives us. If all these governments are so into healthy living, the impossibility of Eduard Sentis not getting any funding is becoming more and more of a puzzle, one that might yield massive earnings down the line. I agree that this is always a gamble, but timing is presently on his side.

So is this about the bicycle or the bank? I think both need to be looked at. I think financial groups are now moving into margins where almost none are left. If the Royal Banks of Scotland had close to 40 Billion Euros revenue in 2012 (not all of that profit mind you), and they are in ‘decent serious financial predicaments’ then other banks should doing reasonably well. 3 million should hardly show up with the possible future revenues in store. You see, that is part of the question. What do we know about those margins they should have?

So an amazing innovation gives visibility to failing banks seem to be in question. The fact that the bicycle was offered to the Danes as they were not able to get funding in Spain only intensifies the outstanding question. The banks with the reserves they should have; the transparency in banking that should be and their status at present. Who is minding the store and are we getting the whole picture or are they too managing bad news over a long period of time?

So here we are, the G8 has started and their message is trade and transparency (well these two mattered here to me).  Considering that India and China are also attending that summit, then the question should be, how did a project like Urbike not get any funding for bringing transparent international trade. It’s not like the 200 billion in bad debts in Spain will go anywhere. If Santander can pledge 840 million towards bad banks, in a place where the toxic assets have swallowed 38 billion (Sareb), spending 3 million (less than 0.0001%) towards something that could propel trade and economy seems to be a good thing.  I wonder if that will come up during the G8, or will it in the end be another vessel to move into a Syrian discussion. Perhaps weapons trade has a better return on investment? (It seems to work for Russia)

As we move into the latter half of another year, too many eyes are averted to a growing amount of toxic bank moves. A cost that is very likely to get left with taxpayers in the end.

It seems that we are all taken on a bicycle ride, a bicycle that got never any funding to begin with.

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The freedom to misdirect?

We see all kinds of information and misdirection, almost at any given day. If one good thing is mentioned, another bad thing is swallowed into silence. So when I saw the message on Sky News that “Latvia to join EU”, I had a look.

So Latvia is now to become the 18th Euro state. That part is however you take it. The average Brit will see this as a fearful motion for another few hundred thousand to seek out the London Limelight on a permanent basis. Others might have their own thoughts and reservations. Not all of them will be negative, as Latvia has a decent record in the shipping industry.

Three parts got my eye, and they are at least worrying, infuriating might be a slightly better word. The first quote was from the European Commission that ‘Latvia is ready to adopt the Euro in 2014‘. An interesting quote, especially as well over 60% of Latvia is fiercely against the Euro. Let us be fair, why adopt a sinking ship. Would you buy the Titanic if you found it parked against an iceberg? At worst it is a 3800 meter walk back to the boat (straight down).

It is the quote from the Latvian Prime Minister that is the second quote of concern: “Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis welcomed the news, saying in Riga that ‘joining the Euro will benefit Latvia’s economy by removing currency conversion costs and raising Latvia’s credit rating’.

Really? You want to adapt even more credit option whilst you are already in a position to drown in current debts? How clueless does that seem? It will take five years to get past the weakness gained by Cyprus, and at least 15 years to get a grip on the financial vise that Greece is giving the rest of the EU. Is this a ploy to remove the option for the UK to remove itself from the EU? If that is so, then the current administration is not just heading towards failure at the next election, at that point we look at a total overwhelming victory by UKIP next election. I have nothing against UKIP, but I do not think that to be a particularly good idea. Mostly, as a large part of UKIP would be seated at senior position whilst having little more than junior levels of experience. (I just call them how I personally see them). They would be elected in charge, whilst becoming a real danger to create an unresolvable mess for two administrations to come (again a personal view of mine). I will here and now state quite clearly that this is an assumption on MY side. I will also happily add information proving me wrong when and if the time comes.

Back to Latvia!

The second quote is nothing compared to the third one. “We think Euro membership will increase investment activity. We need only to look at the Estonian example where investment in the non-financial sector doubled.” (Source: http://www.skynews.com.au/world/article.aspx?id=877664 ).

This I see as a massive misdirection. The only reason that this looks this way is because Skype was an Estonian invention (a brilliant one). It comes from the people who initially came up with Kazaa. So yes, even though their mention might be correct, the fact that one product is the major reason behind the non-financial investment is thrown into the deep left field of unmentioned factors. Of course Tallinn is also famous for the Beer ferries to Stockholm. It is indeed a pretty city to see, uncannily picturesque and of course it has some visibility for the hourly lady rental services (some are extremely good looking and it is perfectly legal in Estonia). So which of these options give that reason for investments? Also interesting is that this newscast from Sky News did not come with the identity of a writer. You see, here is where we take a look at a few things. Especially when we consider the mention by Leveson and in regards to Ethics. I think that this article is missing a lot of facts and some are too far out of context. However, this is again my personal view on the matter at hand.

Danger 1.
The EU economy is as fragile as it gets. I will not debate here whether it is a good idea to add Latvia to the list. It is important to consider the Latvian addition to the Euro. Especially, when we read statements from their PM is strong at mentioning of the option of upping their credit rating. That part will hit back to the Euro sooner rather than later and as such the other Euro nations as well. It only makes a stronger case for the UK to get out of the EU (I am not convinced it is the right option at present), and get out fast. Even if they do not, additional reasoning for better and more complete regulations is required for all kinds of banks and financial institutions. That would be needed BEFORE nations get added to the Euro as it allows for a gap for re-managing all kinds of financial packages, that would require those government to need additional IMF support. We all know where that leads the rest.

Danger 2.
Looking at Estonia? Why, because these nations are neighbours? Tallinn has a direct ferry connection with Helsinki and a ferry connection with Stockholm (amongst others). Non-financial investments are nice, but how many and who? Skype (invented in Estonia) got a strong influx by Microsoft and twice the amount of what? Another nation getting a few taxable Billions for Skype does not put Latvia in the clear (also much of that amount went to a small group of private developers) as Microsoft bought it. There is every chance that Skype will be phased out of Estonia, then what? This does not reflect badly on Estonia as it has several economic options. Latvia does not have those in equal measure. It has options, but which ones exactly? It seems that the initial article does not bear that out clearly at all.

Another quote to mention is “Latvia is a small, open economy” the Latvian Prime Minister said. Anyone remember Iceland 2004? Similar words were spoken then. That did not pan out to well for that island, as well as many of their inhabitants (and a massive amount of places after that). This is exactly why those banking reforms I pleaded for in many situations are needed and needed fast. There is NO indications that this is about to happen here, but it is proven that greed is eternal; people in power have been willing to sell away what they can and remain unaccountable after that. It is clear that the open market industry cannot be trusted the way it is. It is even proven that too many in charge are passing the buck and letting those who are innocent pay for the hardships created by the greedy (Greece and Cyprus are clear evidence of that).

These elements give additional strengths to the UKIP mission to get out of the EU, which also gives inevitable strength to the German group under Bernd Lucke, who will get the power for the last push out of the Euro. With these two elements the UK and Germany, the EU will have more than two little problems floating their way. Should this come to pass then the German chancellor Merkel will end up getting a new job and as things go, there might be a reasonable ‘danger’ for an Early UK election. At that point it will be the EU segregation of coin or nation through possible future Chancellor Lucke of Germany and Prime Minister Farage of UK that will change the EU and possibly even sink it completely. The simple reasoning is that the Euro cannot survive without both. It might survive the departure of one, but no way will it survive both leaving their support to the coin.

So, is this just speaking doom?

I will always agree that these are thoughts (non-positive ones) from me and my way of thinking. Experts will speak out on how wrong I am. Those experts also predicted that the economy was already on the rise in 2013. This has been proven wrong in most EU nations. Where their predictions were right, they were between ½% and 1½% too optimistic. For the EU it is not just about the economy, it is about getting a handle on the current massive debts. Debts so massive that it is likely to take in some cases up to three generations to get back on the horse. To add nations to a coin is one thing, but when we read about raised credit ratings it comes down to pushing many further down a debt driven society. That in a society where on average in the EU nation’s 1 out of 8 do not have a job, in some cases it is 1 out of 4. That is no place to be in a debt driven society. That is not a social structure, that is in my humble opinion seen as the population gnawing on the remaining scraps called ‘their nation’ before those nations become some industrialised economic ownership, where you either work at THEIR leisure, or you perish.

It would be fair of you the reader to dismiss this thought. Before you do, consider that Greece had been holding a fire sale of what is still in their name (for now). This act is to reduce a debt of millions, out of a total debt which surpasses several hundreds of billion. No more than a drop of water on a hot plate. That happened last year (Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/19/debt-ridden-greece-firesale)

So what happens when a nation has nothing left? Is my reasoning that outlandish? Those sales might get them somewhere near 2 billion, whilst 15 billion is due in 2015. Even if ALL savings from the entire Greek population is nationalised (confiscated). It might just be enough to get the 15 billion. So what to do about the other 300 billion not paid? I am not going after Greece; this is not about the Greek debt. This is about OTHER new members not adding to this, and for that certain precautions are needed. Certain regulations for banks and financial institutions need to be in place. Even if the IMF now admits that the damage through Austerity was ‘miscalculated’. (Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/05/imf-underestimated-damage-austerity-would-do-to-greece) In all honesty, I saw that one coming a mile away. It has been known at least since the early 1600’s that a plucked chicken has little feathers left. (And boy did that chook get itself plucked!)

As messages of rephrasing ‘the message‘, it has been clear that there is a real danger that the Euro is way too close to a non-successful triple bypass.

If a new member dumps their domino on the EU and Greece falls, which will topple Cyprus and then the effect will topple France, Italy, which in turn will topple the Dutch and remaining domino stones (read weak economic countries). What will be left? I will keep one eye on the Guardian the next few weeks as people like Larry Elliott and Phillip Inman, who are excellent financial correspondents, add their views to the internet.

If there is any chance of surviving, then it is only possible if credit limits are frozen and debts are lowered. So far no one is on top of that approach and the EU will change as team Lucke/Ferage might remove the little options the EU had left. Are they wrong? I am not sure, but I do not blame these two for getting their nations out of a collision whilst the others keep on failing to successfully manage their budgets.

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The Euro in intensive care?

It is always nice to see that the NOS news will not stop to give me the inspiration I need on a gruelling Monday morning. We have all heard on the image of the Euro, the need for bail outs left, right and centre and the impression that the events do not seem to worry too many people. Yet, perhaps this look on the matter at hand from the financial industry and their ‘beneficiaries’ are overly too not worried. What most seemed to have forgotten is that any government (especially in Western Europe) is dependent on voters and the way they think, or more precisely the way they fear!

With a possible new political party, leaning slightly to the right (or better stated slightly conservative) a new option will have arrived with one specific agenda. The intention to move Germany away from the Euro currency. In itself it is perhaps not the immediate worry. Consider that Western Europe was on a route to real or feigned restoration, which does require Germany to weather the storm as it was (I am not ignoring the work France did on this either). It was the immense amount of self-austerity that Germany performed on itself that made them the strongest economy at present.

The issue is the new party! Even if this new party gets a firm foothold, it does not mean that Chancellor Merkel is in danger as yet. The predictions are that this new party stands to get up to 24% of the votes (presently at maximum). So the Chancellor is still in a comfortable pace for now. There is however the issue that not much more is allowed to go wrong at present as this could change the game as is with Chancellor Merkel to become the loser in the next election.

Why is this so important?
Anyone who tries to trivialise this is clearly of their rocker (and out of their mind too). This event, should it take place is huge and the impact it will have is pretty much beyond what anyone can imagine.

Consider two scenarios.

In the first scenario we look at the one that had been an issue a few times in the past. This was the situation where those countries unable to pull their weight would be cast out of the Euro. Merkel united with the others to prevent this in the past. Greece was number one on that list, but at present Spain might actually end up getting added to that list, so there is a lot at stake and the new party might change all that.

The second one is the one that is most concerning to all non-Germans. If the new party gets the strong voice, and this chance is not that far-fetched at present, then there is a chance that they will move to remove Germany from the Euro and moves straight back into the Deutschmark.

There will be many voices on how this will never happen, and then carefully phrased denials on how the Euro is in serious danger. Make no mistake; they will be leading you on. The bulk of all Euro countries are in deficit. Most have NO concrete plan on recovery (they all claim it will happen, yet the events are against them). They all claim that they have which they obfuscate by overenthusiastic information on economic recovery NEXT year. Too many parties are in assumption mode and too few in a state of pragmatist optimism. I do not pretend to be the expert. I am not some PhD with the knowledge of economic events. I am a data miner. I have looked at data in many forms for most of my life. From this point I looked at data and no matter how complex some parties make it all out to be, some simple rules always apply.

First event to take into consideration is that America seems to be printing more and more money on a daily basis. Printed money, which does not seem to be set against anything tangible especially, taking into account a massive 17 trillion dollar debt. Funny enough Germany did something similar in the 1920’s. I remember it because I used to have one of those fünfhundert tausend Deutsch Mark bills (DM 500,000) which is now valued at less than $5. So is this where America is headed? No! I doubt that it will get THAT bad, yet a bankrupt America would be the definite death nail in the coffin now known as ‘the Euro’.

A second fact in this equation is the economical drop in several nations. The Netherlands, Italy, France are all in a not so good financial position. A nice little footnote to this is that the Dutch TV (NOS) reported that the Netherlands would see a more then 2% increase in their economy for 2014 on March 3rd 2013. Yet on the Dutch government site   (http://www.cpb.nl/persbericht/3213019/zwakke-groei-economie-door-achterblijven-consumptie) on 13th of March (10 days after my blog doubted that in my article ‘march Hare of Government’) it now states the increase to be only 1%. I still think it is slightly too high, but whatever, I had made my point. France is also toning down their near future predicaments for their economy. For now only Germany seems to have some reasonable strength (in the short foreseeable term). This is relative as it cannot pull the weight of Italy, France and the Netherlands. Should Germany pull out then the Euro will have a definite problem on several levels.

Before you consider calling Germany names consider that the Euro can only survive if ALL pull their weight. Most of the nation’s overspending the way have been doing for some time is not that. As stated in earlier blogs. When you overspend for well over a decade, at some point the invoice is due and too many are ignoring that little fact. So don’t blame Germany, blame your respective governments. If you have any doubts on that, look at how Cyprus needed 10 billion, an island with barely a million people living there. That is only one island. Several nations are in much higher debts. Granted is that they are not reliant on 80% of their GDP coming from the banks and financial industries.

So the Euro and the issues they might be getting.

It would be very incorrect to say that it is all about the value of the German Mark, yet this is not that incorrect. If you have a soccer team and you lose your star player, will that team survive? Yes, it usually does! However, in most cases that team will not end up as high because of the loss of their star player. When that team is pulled by 1-2 players a lesser result is usually the case. The issue becomes will that team continue on the same level (division) as the other teams. My thought is that this is not the case. That new German party does have a valid point. The other nations could survive if those weaker players are no longer there. What will happen in the immediate response is one from the markets and it will not be a positive one.

We are now left with two thoughts.

1. Should this direction be avoided?
I do not have a direct answer. Let us face it. The chance of Greece or Cyprus EVER paying back their debts is pretty much out of the question. There are off course the additional nations Spain and Ireland. What about them? So far they are coping, but consider that the economy will remain weak until at least the end of 2014. There is no true answer of what to do in that case. Throw out more and more nations? Will the Euro become a factor analyses under the leave-one-out approach? This seems a cold and very logical approach to deal with this matter. Have we loathed ourselves to such an affect that nations are now under the scrutiny of a spread sheet approach?

2. If we embrace this path what is the use of the Euro?
I personally still see the Euro as the means for America to do away with all these different currencies and have a nice go at corporate Europe by moving in with all their options and less as a solution to unite Europe. This is a personal feeling in this matter and the evidence seen in the last three years are clear that European unity is a nice theory and that is all it remained. A theory! If there was true unity then budgets would be kept in check on a European scale. Yet the Euro nations seem to remain a place of PowerPoint global and expedite ‘the local needs’ as it ever was. No matter what we read in the papers and propagated by all kinds of interested parties. The issues in play are kept in a vicious circle.

I wonder whether this is what the banks envisioned from the very beginning, a debt driven society that leaves them out of the equation to do whatever they wanted. This is how we get back to this new German party. Their most prominent speaker was Bernd Lucke, a professor of Macroeconomics from the University of Hamburg. Is he wrong? He definitely knows more about economy than I ever will, but so are the experts who are on the other side of that equation. So where should we stand? It was Bernd Lucke who mentioned in a German magazine ‘Spiegel’ (German for Mirror) in 2011 that all these collapses would end up in the German lap for an amount of 180 billion Euro. That is almost 2200 Euro for each German citizen. And it seems that so far his vision is slowly becoming reality. If someone has to pay 2200 for damages they never made, or issues they never ordered. Would you not get upset with that?

Governments do not seem to accept accountability, Banks and financial institutions are given free reigns to do for the most, whatever they like and the population end up having to pay for it all. How long until we have had enough? This is where the German population is at now. So when people start talking in a trivialising way consider your personal financial situation. Consider paying 2200 Euro for something that is not your fault, not your order and add to this that there is no guarantee that it will not happen again next year. Now consider that the amount is on average 15% of a Germans pre taxation annual income. With German economy losing strength not unlike other European countries, ask yourself how many Germans will consider an alternative to the vision of Merkel?

My views?

Europe should stick together, but there is a clear valid worry that leaving the bill to be paid by a few without clear regulations on what some are allowed to do is just not realistic. It is the present German fear and it is shared by too many people in Germany.

 

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