In France everything is going topsy turvy, we see people who claim to have no gains in any of it make certain that anybody is elected, except for Marine Le Pen, even the current President of France is on that boat, which is interesting as he is at present regarded as the biggest political failure since WW2. I myself would like to remain neutral, which is almost not possible as out of nowhere a former investment banker is suddenly the favourite runner with no real main political experience. The political marketing department might like the fact that he will be the youngest French President, which makes almost as much sense as it would be for me to take over the clandestine department of the CIA, with all those Korean challenges? I’m game!
Yet as I see it, Emmanuel Macron made a large blunder on LinkedIn as he wanted France to head all kinds of environmental and climate research, which sounds nice as the population at large is all about climate, but he seems to forget that France has a 2.25 trillion Euro debt to deal with and the current French President is leaving France in a dire, weakened and unhealthy state. Something that can not now, and not ever be cured by throwing money in anything but a growing economy move. Even I could have done better than that. Both players for the hefty seat will need to consider that a true quality investigation in the French healthcare system will be next on the list. It is at present regarded as one of the best, yet by 2019 their numbers will drastically change as France has one contributing element. As the retirement age has shifted by 2 years, there will be a spike in both physical and mental health care that will at that moment spike to different levels. France has the benefit of seeing how wrong inaction has left the British NHS close to death, and this is whilst the retirement age was at present not affected, so in France a think-tank will need to convene on a structured overhaul that does not leave a non working system in hands of consultants for 11 billion and at that point be a non-working system. The British Labour party left them with this example. If met with the proper adjustment, Huawei Technologies and Google could have optional solutions in theory before the end of 2018 and implemented 2 years later. The question becomes who will be the player and how will it be implemented. Questions that require serious consideration and in my view the youthful investment banker might not have the solution, in equal measure I am not certain whether Marine Le Pen will fit that bill either. Yet what has been shown is that the current president has made little effort towards that growing dilemma.
So why is Macron the bad choice? I am not sure he is, but the issues we have seen with investment bankers do not make me confident. Even as we should agree that he married the love of his life even though she is a few decades older, which implies that he does not care about the opinion of others gives the vibes that he is made of stern stuff, something the French people desperately need after one tour of Francois ‘the paperback’ Hollande (as I personally see it). Yet, what wrong has Emmanuel Macron done? That is the issue, for the mere reason that there is nothing that shows he had done anything but bend the law without breaking it in the Nestle acquisition deal. So basically, this proclaimed Mozart of Finance is getting soiled in soot for the mere title of being a former investment banker. That is as far as I can take it with reliable information. The Rothschild bank empire keeps it laundry hidden and dry, neither the NSA or the CIA has anything on them (FBI has nothing either). Whatever others can find is either hear say of overextended triviality. Again, as I personally see it the entire board of commissioners of PwC will be in jail long before Rothschild bankers get into the dock in court. I am happy, but unlikely to be wrong here.
Yet these elements are not the only ones in play. During the next French administration banks are moving their interests and their work environment all over the globe, France will see its share of new challenges. As the UK is dealing with Brexit and their set of new challenges, France will also deal with other issues. Even as both are not looking towards the frontiers of what will be possible with 5G, we will see new views on security and cyber issues, not just in the WiMAX and 5G environment, there will be additional dangers and risks with the new IBM hype word! As blockchain is heralded as a new solution, there are inherent risks with a system that has these abilities. Not just in managing the data, the attached data goes much further, there is the risk that any system has more than a mere ‘massive disintermediation of the financial system’. There is the risk that a hiatus in ‘non-repudiation’ could leave a dangerous leap in the ‘who done it’ realm where nobody can be held to account. The fact that blockchain has no form of regulations whatsoever will give French banking laws additional headaches down the line. This is not just assumption (well, it is a little), the Washington Post was all about ‘Russian hackers‘ in French elections. That does not prove that it is not so, there is merely a lack of concrete data evidence and the quote “the front-runner in France’s presidential race carried digital “fingerprints” similar to the suspected Russian hacking of the Democratic National Committee and others in the 2016 U.S. election” give food for thought. As present the cyber units cannot even get on par with the criminals, as blockchain evolves in all kinds of ‘personal’ dialects in every nation, we will witness a new level of data adjustment. This does not mean that blackchains are evil or that they are instigate criminal activities, the timing that blockchains bring just as the data traffic from 5G could sent a 500% data traffic spike from 2020 onwards through the global online cloud community leaves us with a boatload of issues and in that, France will have its share of issues to deal with, so as there might be opportunity, there is a more than equal risk of harmful dangers. Europe at large is not ready and in a lack of checks and balances, the dangers of another 2004 and 2008 investment collapse is not out of the question, especially as the laws are still not ready to deal with the recurring danger of a 2008 finance event. In this France is in too weak a condition (as is the UK by the way). So consider that if we relate this to the Bitcoin, its volatility is in its foundation the same volatility that blockchain could face, with a truckload of return on investment risks. In this we might consider that Macron is the better candidate, but I am not convinced, in this both are not great options, yet still better than the others. It almost a Churchill moment “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried“, we could replace the word Democracy with either ‘Blockchain’ ‘Emmanuel Macron’ and ‘Marine Le Pen’. Although in the first example, we would need to exchange ‘government’ with ‘data system’ as well. In this day and age governments can no longer keep up and until the spirit of the law gets clearly enforced the population of any nation is in trouble. In this danger is too harsh a word but there is a risk and the press at large has proven to be little or no help (apart from some actual newspapers, who are some help).
As France goes to vote there is little that I can offer to the voters, only that they need to know who and what they are voting for. They need to realise that their immediate choice is for themselves and their family. For some it is one candidate for others there is the other candidate. With France having an explosive growth in poverty, the social element seems the most pressing one, but its solution is in other elements not in solving poverty but in growing a dire economy, a dire situation grown by what I regard to be outsourcing and the bottom Euro of getting things done cheaply. It is that proper reform that herald change and options, which puts the initial premise in the hands of Marine Le Pen, yet no matter how her national pride is set, if she cannot build solutions she would be a one term president too. For Macron it seems simple in the way he talks and he talks like a salesperson, but in this he needs an engine to deliver on his promises, this is something he cannot walk away from, whether he realises it to the degree is not certain, his LinkedIn message made that clear.
So no matter where the exposure ends, there are dangers that all nations of Europe will face, the sudden ‘relaxed’ shift from Mario Draghi is making that clear (Source: Financial Times). I think that this temporary ease of situation is merely to ‘atone’ for French voters, I think that the message is a dangerous one. Several sources are talking on the dangers of joint bonds an in addition the fat that Reuters views that Mario Draghi could lose credibility is not a fab, it is a realistic danger which people seem to be dimming to low until after the French elections. This as I see it implies that there is heavy weather ahead. This is strictly my personal view, yet in that regard I have been correct a few times too many. See my other blog articles to compare on that regard. In this there is partial data, there is the claim that the IMF has dropped the pledge to resist all forms of protectionism. For me the issue whether they dropped it, or merely did not make mention of it. The result is very different and in this it is not just about clarity, it is about changing channels of commerce. It is more than a mere view of ‘good business is where you find it’ versus ‘we all should be allowed to do business’, which is the more direct issue that will impact France too. Even as I have an issue with the President Trump’s tax breaks, there is one sight that is adamant. The economies are now no longer in the hands of the fat cats of Wal-Mart and corporations alike, it is in the hands of small businesses and families in stores. They will reduce tensions on infrastructure pressures and make combined ripples in a starting wave of commerce. France is one of the more likely places to get that going, much more so that the UK at present. In this France’s biggest enemy is the French language.
When it overcomes that barrier, it could start a wave of trendsetting businesses from local to global, how it is done remains open to the people deciding walking that path, it will be a personal choice for all who endeavour that step, but they can get there, they just need the proper exposure and support.