We all love the moment that we get to say ‘I told you so!’, it is like a confirmation on the silliness (stupidity is too strong a word) of certain people. Basically, I stated 5 days ago: “So as the UK is basically throwing away the economic advantage it might have all for the grace of a bully who stops mattering in the political field soon enough. We see a larger stage, the new economy in Europe will be largely in the hands of the Huawei wielders, and not for governmental reasons, but for the simple reason that their equipment is 3-5 years more advanced than whatever is out now and those making claims that they will equal it, will already be behind the new Huawei devices”, I stated this in ‘Light at the end of the economy’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/07/15/light-at-the-end-of-the-economy/) it was only time that was the one factor proving me correctly, so it was a small surprise that this evidence is given 5 days later (at https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-19/UK-asks-Japan-for-Huawei-alternatives-in-5G-networks-SfpqYScBxK/index.html) where we see ‘UK asks Japan for Huawei alternatives in 5G networks’ and that is not all, we see “The British government asked Japan to help build its 5G wireless networks without Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies, citing NEC Corp and Fujitsu Ltd as potential alternative suppliers, Nikkei reported on Sunday”, as well as “British officials met with their counterparts in Tokyo on Thursday, according to Nikkei, noting the move reflects Britain’s effort to bring in new equipment suppliers to foster competition and help reduce costs for the country’s wireless carriers”, and the two are actually a lot more important, not only is this about making the 5G equipment, but it also becomes about ‘help reduce costs for the country’s wireless carriers’, now consider the design path that will take up to 180 days, then we get the setting of financial stages and ‘cheaper’ chips and cheaper assembly, so we are looking at 200+ days, implying that the first workable designs will not be here before late 2021, the UK will then be a year behind others that embraced Huawei, all because of a stupid bully in the White House who refuses to show evidence. When did we ll accept that part of the equation? Now consider assembly and mass production and after that software flaws and other design flaws. The UK will now be around mid 2022 and no configurable 5G situation, it will give a first large testable pilot not before the end of 2022, at this point the UK will be staggeringly behind all other players and they will be wielding the latest Huawei options at the end of 2022. This implies (implies, which is not the same as proven) that the Huawei wielders are 1-2 years ahead of the latest that the UK installed. Or perhaps I should diplomatically state: ‘Good luck starting a new economy at that point!’ And that is merely the top of the iceberg. If Japan remains on the same track, we should see the dangers of a statement a mere 4 hours ago: “Japan’s exports suffered a double-digit decline for the fourth month in a row in June as the coronavirus pandemic took a heavy toll on global demand, reinforcing expectations that the economy has sunk into its deepest recession in decades”, I personally see (speculatively so) it getting worse, you see their economy has not reset the numbers and expected income of the delayed Olympics yet (which is officially not on the date of expectations), so we can expect a lot bad news coming from Tokyo in the next 8 weeks. That is the stage where the UK is going to whilst the players are in a state of turmoil, as such there will be a lot of debate between now and 2022, as such more delays and more ‘compromises’ and they will all be altered by certain voices so that they look good, but the people awaiting the hardware will get to pay the price of non-delivery. That is the larger stage I saw coming from a few angles (apart from the unexpected Japanese move), and this sets a much larger stage, if the UK moves towards Japan, what is now already not optionally coming in any Ericsson or Nokia solution? Did anyone expect that question?
And as Reuters gives us “The Bank of Japan has signalled confidence the economy will emerge from the slump and has ruled out the risk of deflation, suggesting the central bank has paused monetary easing after it deployed stimulus twice so far this year” I merely wonder what numbers that these ‘believes’ are founded on, I wonder how much bad news Japan will give us at the end of September when the Olympics losses will need to be on the books and then the large tamale of bad news is given to us all.
As I see it, those who did embrace Huawei will have a larger part of 2022 to stomp out their economic advantage, and as that becomes clearer, consider the US impact as GDPR is failing and Europe becomes a larger data pool location, at that point certain players will get a much larger advantage, and those screaming that I was ‘betraying’ my identity by offering my IP to Huawei will see that I opted for evidence and as I get to be proven correct again and again, y IP will merely boost in value beyond what I ever expected to make, which will work out lovely for me.