Now to be honest, there was never much of a chance to begin with, but who would not want 3.75% commission, especially as it is based on a number amounting to billions. And as I said in several articles, the US is about to lose out on these billions. And guess what, after all the name calling I was handed (some are blindly accepting US stories that it will blow over), the setting given to us by Asia Times is ‘Saudi Arabia has a plan to buy fewer US weapons’, a mere 5 hours ago. It is supported by “Kingdom has launched an inward-looking strategy to develop its own defence industries with the help of foreign partners” (at https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/saudi-arabia-has-a-plan-to-buy-fewer-us-weapons/) in all honesty, this was always going to happen, but that industrial move was initially going to be US settings, now there is every chance that China gets to do this and that would imply losses into the hundreds of billions. The article gives us “Saudi Arabia has signed several Memoranda of Understanding between GAMI, the Ministry of Investment and UK-based Cranfield University. GAMI also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Italian defence manufacturer Leonardo to create and develop investment opportunities in education and train specialised military industries”, yet I believe that this setting is one that China relishes, as such whatever the west is thinking, be careful what you do next. You se, Cranfield themselves give us “A number of Cranfield graduates also hold leading roles in Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) including the Head and the Chief Design Engineer of the China Gas Turbine division”, Is this where it will go? No, there is no data supporting this, it is based on the stages that we have seen all over the news and if Saudi Arabia decides to get their hardware from the BAE, I would be happy (as a Commonwealthian), I would still be a little sour missing out on the 3.75%, but that was never a given in the first place. And all this is not really news, the internal defence growth was at least 2 years old and it makes sense for Saudi Arabia to have its own military manufacturing complex. So we aren’t seeing anything news, other than the Italian involvement here. So whilst some will stare at “Cranfield is ranked 45th in the world for Aero, Mech, Manufacturing by QS rankings.” It seems to me that Saudi Arabia is making headway in this stage and that means that the US is in deeper trouble than it realises. The UK could avoid some issues if they can get a handles on the CAAT Tea grannies.
You see, over the next decade all nations need whatever revenue they can get and the UK is not out of the race yet, the question becomes what can they offer over China and that is a hard nut to crack, China has all kinds of advantages after the UK and US dropped the ball, and they did so several times in a row, so they are catering to a client (the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) that has had enough of the games that some governments have been playing (as well as catering to Iran at the same time).
Saudi Arabia was always intent on growing its own defence solutions and I believe about 3-4 years ago mention of 50% by 2030 was stated and they are on track to do that. I believe that GAMI (General Authority for Military Industries) is roaring to get things going. And it seems that they are very serious to get it going, so it is up to the UK to find solutions that help them and not China. Personally I believe that the UK will have to sweeten the deal by a lot, but that is personal speculation. I do still believe that China has the inside track here, but that too is speculation on other sources, sources I never was able to vet.
And there is a second path here, I do believe that the longer term planning for Saudi Arabia implies that Egypt is a growing connection here, so if China wins that path, they could optionally have the advantage with Egypt and its $2,000,000,000 for 2022/2023. A setting that should cause concern in Washington. You see, if China takes over the $ 1.3 billion annually support from the US, the factional setting for the Middle East will change pretty dramatically. Even as the US is seemingly out with the Saudi Government, it is merely that seemingly. The US has a massive disadvantage especially when they were all huffy and puffy on Saudi Arabia, reality bites and that presentable stage will have to be stopped at the earliest convenience (not for me, I am happy if the BAE takes over), yet these stages (also the one the CAAT forced) are all stages that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia took notice of and China will be happy to show that with every presentation they bring. So China might have the lead, but the UK is still in the race and that is good for the UK. The Asia Times is not bringing too much news, yet the fact that it is on the front of the media is always an optional sign that more will be coming soon enough.
Time will tell, and I reckon it is sooner rather than later.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 