Not the composer

It started yesterday, I saw the news, shrugged a little and moved on. It was not that the news wasn’t worthy. It could be, but I have priorities and as such it wasn’t one of mine. I had other things to look at and I do have limits, I cannot push 3700 seconds into an hour, only delusional people do that. Time is a barrier, one that I accept and I need to find ways within the time allotted. So this morning (02:20) I suddenly realised something that wasn’t clearly seen initially. But my mind caught on, lets see if you realise what I initially missed and a lot of people missed it as well. The article ‘North Korea sold arms to Russia’s Wagner group, US says’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64072570), it is there that we see “Fighters from the mercenary group have ballooned from 1,000 to nearly 20,000 in Ukraine, the UK government says. “Wagner is searching around the world for arms suppliers to support its military operations in Ukraine,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters.

  1. In the first we see the growth to 20,000 men, it seems that the Russian army can no longer match the losses that they are facing. Not only are they relying on mercenaries, the stage is growing from there. 
  2. The fact that they are searching ‘around the world’ implies that military hardware is even less dependable, less in numbers and less operational than ever thought before. It shows that the military arm of Russia is failing on too many factors, but somehow 68 oligarchs are filling their pockets all over the place. Lets consider that greed is rampant in Russia and the military side is feeling that impact by being less than operational.
  3. North Korea is shipping hardware. A nation that has one language, Korean. There is either a translation service, or there are instructors involved. These two options are open. I reckon that the instructors are Russian instructors in Korea learning what they can, but that also implies that Russia either depleted its infantry rockets, or that they are even less operational in that count. I would speculate the second, but it is speculation. 

As such we also get “Mr Kirby said Wagner is spending more than $100 million (£82 million) each month in Ukraine.” And “The fact that President (Vladimir) Putin is turning to North Korea for help is a sign of Russia’s desperation and isolation”, the first is simple, the second is a lot less clear and I do not completely agree with it. It is not desperation, it seems it is merely the only avenue left to them at present. I reckon that any depletion there is a silent blessing for China and then there is the spending. If Wagner is spending $100 million a month, they are getting close to $2 billion a year. And the west better figure out where these people are sending the surplus, because that money might get earmarked for other needs soon enough. Russia is not stupid, if they lose to this degree, they will need some kind of victory, any victory and the media is aware of it, they merely haven’t connected the dots yet. And it is important to see all the dots that are connectable. 

In this we can speculate all we want, but we need to find the data and the fact that the Wagner group gets this amount to spend implies there is a lot more, greed is eternal, it always is and even if they aren’t driven by greed there will be an operational impact. Where? Your guess is as good as mine, but realise that a player like Russia will not easily accept defeat, they want to make sure the other player bleeds a lot more and the missile attacks aren’t getting it done. They will lash out in other directions too. Places like Finland, Estonia and Latvia make sense, but there is no way that this can be predicted. There is also the events in Africa and Russia might seek destabilisation there too. Yet in the end we will have to wait and see what will happen. We can give additional weight to ‘German intelligence service employee arrested on suspicion of spying for Russia’, it will not be helpful. Yes, there is every indication that this is right, but that falls into the folder that is labeled ‘Business as usual’ not more than that. Yet the idea that the Wagner group has well over $500 million to spend and it remains (for now) beneath the surface is a problem. The amount of money will enable too many to do too much damage, as such it needs to be investigated.

Advertisement

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Military

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.