That is an expression I heard in a few ways, som e not so good, some are a little better. But the version I heard today was new to me and it comes from Canada. EnergyNow.ca is giving us (at https://energynow.ca/2026/02/billions-left-on-the-dock-why-canadas-next-pipeline-could-be-worth-21-billion-a-year/) ‘BILLIONS LEFT ON THE DOCK: Why Canada’s Next Pipeline Could Be Worth $21 Billion a Year’, so floor or dock, all the same if you want to eat and there is seemingly plenty go around. When we consider “According to the most recent data from the Alberta Energy Regulator, the annual average WCS price was US $60.99 per barrel in 2024. In that same year, the WTI-WCS differential narrowed to approximately US $14.73 per barrel, down from a decade-average discount of about US $17 per barrel. While forecasts suggest this differential could average around US $11.00 per barrel in 2025, the gap remains a substantial economic hurdle.” But as President Trump threw Canada in a tariff war, Canada could dispense with every discount and sell full price to Europe and China. It seems simple to me, The United States will have to pay full price now or the business goes overseas. So, do you really think it is contained to $21B? So as we are given “Data confirms that the expansion directly contributed to narrowing the WCS differential by providing an alternative to the U.S. Midwest market. Canadian crude can now reach global buyers in Asia and beyond, forcing U.S. refiners to compete more aggressively on price. The narrowing of the differential from over $18 to near $11 is a testament to the value of market access.” So whilst there are settings that matter, China might see this to a setting where an additional $6 could make all the difference from almost expensive oil, towards a setting the United States into moves of desperation and they did this to themselves. China merely pays top dollar for oil that now sways away from the United States. So as we see “The Western Canadian differential is not fixed by geology; it is shaped by market access and transportation capacity. At current production rates, the pricing gap represents over US $21 billion annually in unrealized revenue. Even modest improvements in market access yield significant real gains for provincial and federal budgets. Infrastructure matters because it improves pricing power. Timing matters because lost revenue compounds over years. Opportunity cost matters because every year of constrained access leaves billions on the table.” So if that is the case why was President Trump this ‘uneducated’ to waste that much money? Ad now Canada has the Trump card (bad choice of tactics) and this trump card is going (very likely) the way of the EU or even China and with the US Administration on their anti-China bender, China might actually lime the settings that he has access on and with oil towards the United Staes being suppressed, their movements become more erratic and more desperate. I reckon that is the way the Democrats want to illuminate this Republican administration.
But in all this, perhaps I am wrong, you decide. Have a great day today.
