As things go, late last night (roughly 20.435 hours ago) I was directed towards a CNN article. The article (at https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/21/politics/economy-gdp-trade-deficit-trump-tariffs) gives us ‘These two new economic numbers blew a hole in Trump’s rosy narrative’ where we see the following issues. The first is “Two new pieces of economic data, one released Thursday and one released Friday, blew another hole in President Donald Trump’s triumphant narrative about the effects of his tariffs. The figures released early Thursday showed Trump had wildly overstated the impact of the tariffs on the trade deficit. The figures released early Friday showed he also had wildly exaggerated economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.” My first thought was ‘what else is new’ and it is not based on data. It is based on the presentations that we are given in several ways. As I personally see it, he cannot deal with the thought of being seen as a loser (the bully in him won’t allow this) and we then get to issue number two. “Trump has for years highlighted the trade deficit – the difference between the value of US imports and exports – as a supposed example of how the US is being “ripped off” by other countries. (Many economists disagree with his characterization.) On Wednesday evening, he posted a celebratory message on social media. “THE UNITED STATES TRADE DEFICIT HAS BEEN REDUCED BY 78% BECAUSE OF THE TARIFFS BEING CHARGED TO OTHER COMPANIES AND COUNTRIES,” the all-caps post began. The next morning, though, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed the actual 2025 trade deficit in goods and services. It was nearly identical to the 2024 deficit, down just 0.2% — nowhere close to Trump’s professed “78%” decline. And the trade deficit in goods, the items subject to Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, was up 2.1% compared to 2024.”
So as we are given “Trump didn’t make up the “78%” figure out of thin air, but it was still deceptive.” I am on the fence there. Pretty much every politician I have ever met uses some form of ‘deceptive presentation’ I have made presentation in the past doing exactly that, although not the the effect that is stated here. Then we get “Trump’s Wednesday post was also inaccurate in suggesting his tariffs are paid by foreign countries. Tariff payments are made by US importers, not foreign exporters, and those importers often pass on some of their costs to consumers. While foreign exporters may sometimes drop their prices to try to keep their products competitive, various analyses have found that the overwhelming majority of the costs of the tariffs Trump has imposed this term are being covered by a combination of US businesses and US consumers.” So here we are with a CNN article that is like Dynamite (I am certain that Daniel Dale, the writer, doesn’t have a explosive permission, handed to him by the RCMP) and it gives us some great settings, settings a lot seemingly have missed. So as we are given “The figures released Friday show just how far from reality his “5.6%” claim was. The economy actually grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, much slower than the 4.4% growth in the third quarter of 2025.
The fall government shutdown was a significant factor in the weak figure. Still, Trump claimed growth was 5.6% despite the shutdown, which wasn’t close to correct.” You would think that this is the end of it, but you would be wrong. It kinda connects to something else (or at least this is what I think). The article (at https://www.aol.com/articles/trump-crackdown-drives-80-plunge-221101694.html) gives us ‘Trump crackdown drives 80% plunge in immigrant employment, reshaping labor market, Goldman says’ where we see “A sweeping crackdown on immigration in President Donald Trump’s second term, characterized by elevated deportations and strict new visa bans, has precipitated an 80% collapse in net immigration to the U.S., according to a new analysis by Goldman Sachs. The report, released Feb. 16, warns the dramatic contraction in the flow of foreign-born workers is fundamentally altering the nation’s labor supply mathematics and lowering the threshold for job growth needed to maintain economic stability.”
So not only are the American getting hoodwinked now, but the hoodwinking will continue and get worse as I see it. The setting of “The investment bank’s U.S. economics team, in a report led by David Mericle, projected a precipitous drop in the arrival of new workers. While net immigration averaged approximately 1 million people per year during the 2010s, that figure fell to 500,000 in 2025 and is projected to plummet further to just 200,000 in 2026, Goldman said. That represents an 80% decline from the historical baseline, a shift the report attributes directly to aggressive policy changes, including “elevated deportations,” a recently announced pause on immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, and an expanded travel ban.
The economists note these measures are likely to “slow inflows of visa and green card recipients” significantly, while the “loss of Temporary Protected Status for immigrants from some countries” poses further downside risks to the labor supply. The report explicitly links the forecasted drop to elevated deportations and tighter visa and green card policies.” It relates because the view that it gives me is that the ‘true’ setting of 1.4% might go down further to a mere 1.12% and that is really not good news for the Americans, I might even call it massively drastic. Should the AI drive decline further (which I personally expect to kick in this year) there is a chance that the American economy might rise no more than 1%. Do you actually think that the current president of the United States is willing to hand out that result to the public? His current rating is set to 36%-47% and it is about to get a few klicks worse, how much worse? I have no way of knowing that, but the CNN article and the AOL data might give rise for American to dislike him a little more than they did yesterday. I reckon that the 80% plunge in immigrant employment data will set certain people up the wall and I believe that there is a certain relationship and as I see it, people on nearly al levels are no longer smitten with him and I reckon that it is about to get worse. But in this I am speculating and I have no data other than the one I see and it gives what some call a ‘hinkey’ setting of the American economy is about to take a dive, because as I see it, there is only so much you can ‘misrepresent’ and deception gets seen by all who are mulling the numbers over and the captains of industry that the USA has, will see that the ride is over. As I see it, the the numbers are given and the United States of America is showing a mere 1% gain, the threshold for pushing that place into a recession will be met and as I see it, it will be a nasty separation between the United States of America and the business world. The place to hide it all will be goin, going, gone.
Could I be wrong?
That is an important questions, I always look at the setting that I could be wrong and it is the same here, But when you look at the AOL article in combination with the CNN article shows a setting and it is not alone, the stage that David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management gave us last October is showing us that these two articles are a little more alarming than we think they are. And when we see that the Strategista Globalis Princeps was a little more on the money than perhaps even he saw the stage towards recession is almost complete. It merely needs 2-5 American billionaires to take a runner towards the zero tax sands of Monaco, the UAE or the Bahamas for the panic buttons to be pushed which will make the lines of recession to be a decent certainty. But in all this I still could be wrong because I react to media and as long as their reliability is too low, there is every chance that my view will be wrong too.
So have a great day and feel free to enjoy the last day of your weekend. The end of mine is a mere 100 minutes away.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 