There is a setting stage is sight, but is it truly a sewing stage? It is a valid question because these things matter. This who only see doom tend to be conspiracy sayers, not conspiracy slayers. We all have the rational of insight, but to what degree?
As I said in ‘The Implied stage’ five days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/08/06/the-implied-stage/) that the expected damage to American Tourism would be a lot worse than $29 billion. I speculatively expect it to be at least 80 billion. Now we get in the first instance mere hours ago (at https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/las-vegas-tourism-figures-plummet-as-potential-us-downturn-looms/news-story/1a3f72933d35041549684453c0756cc2) “The figures coincide with a downturn in international tourism to the United States and come amid President Donald Trump’s intensifying trade war, which has frustrated travelers. Las Vegas saw around 400,000 fewer visitors in June 2025 compared with the same month in 2024.” This is only at the halfway point so the damage is still intensifying. We are seeing this in several articles all over the internet. Then we get, AS (aka Diario AS S.L., at https://en.as.com/latest_news/these-states-are-feeling-the-pain-the-number-of-canadians-travelling-to-the-us-has-dropped-by-more-than-30-n/) giving us “Data from Statistics Canada shows the number of people driving back to the Great White North from the U.S. in June was down 33.1% compared with the same month last year. It was the sixth consecutive month in which a year-over-year decline was recorded. As for air travelers, the same figure dropped by 22.1%.” Lets make this clear, this is just Canadian data, I reckon that globally there is a clear slump and the whole of America is feeling that slap and even as it is not everywhere as bad as it is, the impact on tourism related settings is massive and they all have to pay monthly bills. This is the the largest unexplored setting. So as News also gives us “The city’s fortunes, buoyed by its large gambling market and appeal to travelers with disposable income, are often seen as a bellwether for the broader US economy.” The one fact that is not seen here is that these hotels made investments and in that setting payments are due. So as we ignore the fact that these hotels might be going short for at least a year, we get a edited setting. A setting where Las Vegas (and other places) will drain whatever they bring to the banks to overcome these shortfalls. In addition we are given ““This is a wake-up call for the US government,” said Julia Simpson, president of the World Travel & Tourism Council. “While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.” The Trump administration did not immediately respond to Axios’ request for comment. While some industries have benefited from the tariffs, others have struggled and may be forced to pass costs on to customers. Some travelers have also pledged to avoid visiting the United States as a form of protest against the administration’s policies.” It is the last sentence “Some travelers have also pledged to avoid visiting the United States as a form of protest” I would be in this group as I take offense of our Canadian sisters (and brothers) being seen as part of the 51st state, as do most Canadians. Then there are the LGTBBQ groups that took offense to Florida taking a hostile stance on their lifestyle. Yes, I was making a funny, I don’t understand these groups, but I am not hostile to them. I don’t become violent to them, I tend to deflect with humor (or what I consider to be humor).
That is the larger setting we all should have. There are too many hate groups all over the map. Anti-Semitic, Islamophobic, racial groups, the list goes on and as America showed that they were not ‘welcome’ they and their friends took offense and decided to go somewhere else. Now this might not amount to much, perhaps a 2% impact, but these are merely 3 groups and now we get to 6% and as they have larger groups of friends the impact merely increases. And friends are a weird group, they tend to feel that they do not want to be seen as ‘offensive’ to their friends and as such they have no problems with realigning their destination. As such Canadians go somewhere else and so do the Europeans. When you consider these elements there is no way that this damage is limited to $29 billion. And as they leave America, so will bed and breakfast places look at 30% less guests. They will suddenly have to fire staff all over the place making this tumble-block events all over the place. So, whilst we tend to focus on Orlando and Las Vegas as the impact is sene the clearest there, but take the larger tourist traps like Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Chicago and Miami they will all feel the pinch and the escalating of a downturned economy.
Yet it isn’t all negative. Gambling News (at https://www.gamblingnews.com/news/las-vegas-casino-boss-challenges-claims-of-tourism-downturn/) gives us ‘Las Vegas Casino Boss Challenges Claims of Tourism Downturn’ I don’t believe he is right to the larger degree, but he makes a fair point. He gives us “Circa Resort & Casino CEO Derek Stevens argued that claims of declining interest in visiting Las Vegas do not apply across the board, describing the broader “Vegas is dying” narrative as overstated”, as well as “The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority reports that 3.1 million people visited the city in June, which is 11.3% less than the same month last year. This has led some to think that fewer people want to visit. Yet Stevens said this is not true for all parts of the industry, calling the wider “Vegas is dying” story an exaggeration, reported Fox News.” He gives a fair point and I do not support the thoughts that FoxNews gives us all with “Vegas is dying”. As I see it, Vegas will get wounded, it will lose air, but it will not go down. When it all comes to blows Las Vegas will survive. Still Derek Stevens has a valid point that it will not hit across the board. Some will get hit harder, some less so. I reckon those who diversified their income settings have a much bigger chance to make it through. The one statement I disagree with is “He thought that by next year, both tourism and the broader Las Vegas economy would be on more solid ground.” I disagree because President Trump will at present remain in office until 2029 and if he doesn’t do an about face, America will suffer until at least 2028. By next year some other tourist places will gain momentum in part at present by all the people who took it as ‘an alternative’ will now see that their alternative was excellent and that will drive more people to alternative destinations. So many places will not be dead, but they will suffer the hardship of over-tourism getting replaced by a massive streak of under-tourism and there is a chance that it will set a new record explosion of crimes in America, so they will see what London has been experiencing for 5-10 years. We are given “In London, the most recent crime data (April 2024 – March 2025) indicates a rise in overall crime, with approximately 132.6 crimes per 1,000 people, according to Plumplot.” This implies that a tourist to London has a one in eight chance of getting robbed, or some other setting towards losing what they have. At that point people are reassessing their chances and when that comes to America, the tourist settings will merely dwindle down to a much larger degree. It is a new setting of cause and effect now to a string of domino’s. One domino pushed over the next and the next, but now we get a domino chain effect. The first domino pushes over the next which is up to 50% larger than the previous one, the second pushed over the third domino up to 50% larger than the second domino and so on. This stage is overlooked as people focus on one field but this setting is larger, it affects a lot more and that becomes an increasing scope. This is what I predicted 5 days ago and now we see the domino’s topple. I might have been ‘cautious’ with my $80 billion damage, I know that but as far as I can see it, I got there ahead of media (yet again) and when the people wake up because the media tried to keep them asleep there will be a larger impact. How is anyones guess and I have no clue because this is the kind of impact no one can really predict as there is no data aiding us. So how is AI helping you now? Will it have a meltdown calling itself a failure or will it show that capital punishment is the only solution? The fact that there is no data on this, is why I never considered it a solution, not yet anyway.
So have a great day and I reckon that you need to look at where your next vacation should be, there is every chance that it will be the last vacation a lot of us will be able to afford for some time to come.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 