Yup that is the setting and it will be clear soon enough. It was a day in July when I wrote (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/07/18/for-those-not-seeing-the-oil-field/) titled ‘For those not seeing the oil field’, there I wrote “What happens when they sell 2.5 million barrels a day less and let that go to the US shortage?” So this was three months ago and now we see at NPR (at https://www.npr.org/2022/10/05/1126754169/opec-oil-production-cut) “The OPEC+ alliance announced a 2 million barrels a day cut in oil production Wednesday”, so I was off by only 500,000 barrels a day. I mentioned on a few occasions ‘I told you so’ and this time around it ill cost you, it will cost you a lot, because 2 million barrels less implies a fuel price rise of 10%-20% from the start and still in that time no one asked Brent oil any heavy questions. It is a commercial enterprise and as such it does not care about Americans and their cheap fuel needs. So whilst we all stare at “President Biden has been trying to rein in prices at the gas pump ahead of the midterm elections” all whilst he did close to nothing to rein in Brent and their selling of well over 75% of their stock abroad. You just cannot have it both ways. If you wanted cheap oil, they needed to treat Saudi Arabia as a real ally to a much better degree than they did. Consider going to the pastry shop asking: “Yo fat fuck, gimme a pastry for 10 cents” what are the chances that will work? Even if you make it “Sir can you please sell me a pastry for 10 cents” there will not be too many shops who will do that. A friend might, but America did whatever they could to make the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia a pariah whilst embracing the delay tactics of Iran, Saudi Arabia’s proxy enemy. This was all going to happen one way or another and the fake claims on Russia and Saudi Arabia are a joke. This all plays straight into the hands of China who optionally might end up with that extra oil. All settings that were out in the open from the beginning. On the other hand if oil prices go up, Saudi Arabia might be more interested in my IT solution that gives them at least $500 million a month extra. Time will tell (the commercial manager in the Saudi Consulate in Sydney is seemingly too busy to see me). Well time will tell what comes next but for now Americans will see fuel prices jump, they will see their wages go towards arming thanksgiving and Christmas households and all whilst they are all ‘enjoying’ dinner wearing thicker pants and an extra jumper. As such fashion houses take notice of those needs.
The writing was on the walls and I saw that danger happen 3 months ago. So whilst the US and UK went to Riyadh to ‘kindly please send more cheap oil our ways’ they forgot the first rule of diplomacy (politics too), you cannot make that effort empty handed and then let other organisations slap Saudi Arabia around, it never ever works that way. So when we consider “Yasser Elguindi, the head of macro research at Energy Aspects, says there’s a perception that the Saudis are trying to push prices back to or above $100 per barrel by cutting production and tightening the market. He says the magnitude of the proposed cut has caught people by surprise”, take time to notice that I saw that danger three months ago, so the ‘by surprise’ part is either hollow or a clear first show of reduced levels of competency. Yes the latter part is pure speculation, but feel free to check my earlier article, and consider what is up.
No matter how you slice it, the timing of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is pretty good, winter is coming. Where did I hear that before? No matter what, it will be a cold Christmas this year for a lot of Americans. I wonder what the impact will be in the states like New York, Pennsylvania and Washington, not to mention Washington DC. But the media might continue to avoid the Brent Crude Oil settings and for President Biden and the current PM of the United Kingdom I suggest that they take time and get the Master of Arts in International Relations and Diplomacy or brush up on what you learned there. It might help matters a little. Just some food for thought.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 