Mislabelled fear

That is what I saw when I took notice of the news in the Guardian called ‘US’s $2.36tn tourism business fears ‘Trump slump’ over tariff turmoil’ (at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/15/trump-tariffs-tourism-business) we might look at “Warnings emerge even as effect of economic and political turbulence on the foreign visitors to the US is hard to define” I disagree, you see, slices from UK (69 million), Australia (26 million), New Zealand (5 million) are now avoiding America mainly because of the Canada (51st state) issue. We took offense and even as I yearn to see the Epic Universe, I have decided that if I do get to pick a vacation, I will choose Warner Brothers Abu Dhabi over Orlando. I know that Warner Brothers will still see my money, but in this case 70% will go to Miral, a United Arab Emirates operator. In that same trend many will seek out Euro Disney, Parks in Tokyo and a few other places. And this is not for a mere year, this is for the duration of the Trump administration. Some insults are just a little too much to bear. Oh, and the Canadians with their 40 million people are also avoiding America. I didn’t think that it amounted to 5%-10% of $2.36tn but that could be because America insulted a little more than just the Commonwealth setting. Perhaps others see the weak American setting, perhaps the stage of the Ukraine is equally as upsetting as the Commonwealth setting. America has been kicking the wrong legs, just as interest payments of a 36 trillion dollar debt is due, America loses a lot more income. As such there is nothing that is hard to define, it is the cost of doing business and that part is becoming increasingly hard. 

So this fear is mislabeled, the proper labelling is seen as the price of insulting people, the price of neglecting people and as we see Europe taking additional steps like the fear of espionage on their people by Americans, we need to see that this will take years to undo, especially as Orlando just launched the biggest park in human history, 110 acres (45 ha) in the park itself and the overall size is 750 acres (300 ha), which comes at a cost of $7.7 billion to build, which is stated to be one of the largest and most expensive theme parks in history. Now consider what it takes to get this going, the hotels, the retail stores staff and such costing a bundle in its own right. So as we see the $2.36tn and the 10% lessened revenue and a slice is on that part. Epic Universe will do ok, because it will have millions of Americans wanting to see this place, and the use of influencers was well played, they all showed a place that nearly everyone wants to see. As such the lessened revenue will be felt all over America. Because those wanting to see Epic Universe will take their share from the other places. And that is merely one place. A mere fortnight ago we were told “Several nations issued travel warnings about potential safety risks in America, including Japan, Australia and Canada” others will take notice and that is the larger setting for America for now. So what will Comcast Corp. do? Put it all in a bad bank mortgage and loan and write it off? That would be the economic player will do, as such America will lose a hell of a lot of taxation these several years. Another part of the equation shown in a simple setting. What will happen? That is not for me to tell. But that is the setting that the Guardian is seemingly overlooking. 

So as we are given “Warnings that international tourism to the US could be hit by Donald Trump’s effort to re-engineer economic and political relations with the rest of the world are slowly emerging.” With an added “The Las Vegas Visitors and Convention Authority said last week it was projecting a 5% decline in room tax revenue for its upcoming budget – a decline that may reflect Trump’s trade disputes with Canada and Mexico. Those countries account for 2.6 million visitors to sin city, or half of international travel trade.” As such these two countries account for half the international trade? It seems that America created its own downfall, as I personally see it. And as we see the trend evolve, we need to understand that next year that trend will continue and as Europe, the Commonwealth and others will seek other paths to joy like Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Paris (EuroDisney), London,  Beijing, Tokyo and other places, the losses for America will add and add. 

They wanted to overwhelm the tourist industry and due to political pressures, they merely shown the other places that they might be more desirable. As such, the problem wasn’t hard to define, the Americans merely needed to look into themselves and the problem will exasperate. Consider these places and how they rely on international students to get cheap labour, as the BBC reported last week “Marco Rubio says US revoked at least 300 foreign students’ visas”, and that will have a trickle effect on those still seeking international student visas, they are more likely to seek education from other, non-US places. And the top 50 of universities has plenty of offers on the table for its pending international students. This might seem little, but plenty of business rely on the next batch of international students. So as you are sitting in a theme park hoping for a quick coffee, think again, they might be down a number of staff members because this is a short term impact, the term of summer and that is about to hit all the places that rely on the new batch of international students and with them gone their hiring approach needs to change fast. 

All these elements can be foreseen, but are these places taking notice? America is going through huge changes at present and that place is not ready to face the serious impact of the political pressures they tried to set to other nations. These nations are now retaliating in other ways and Canada seeking other location, other drinks and other choices was a mere first step. With Europe joining their homegrown defense spending, America will lose more and more. All this I put in my blog over the last 3-5 years. Even without President Trump the signs were clear, now they are merely escalating revenue losses and that is impacting America in a few ways. Tourism is merely the latter step, but this is the more visible one. It trickles down to nearly every level of the population, still, that might prove fruitful for people who had been unable to find a job. Still the report of a loss of $118B – $236B is not nothing, add to that lessened defense spending and the people not coming now, will hit tourism the clearest, but this loss will go into nearly very level of the American industry and that impacts small businesses a lot more than foreseen. 

This is merely my view on the matter, but I have been writing on these dangers for some time. Have a great day.