Yes, that is the setting. It is not a desert, it is the final course in a meal that has been brewing since 7 October 2023, like a slow boiled Slow Simmer Beef Stew, but one with a distance, it took 16 months for this stew to come to fruition and now, the final course is up to serving. An Arabian plan that was according to the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjd32xyjg4eo) where we get to see ‘Arab leaders approve $53bn alternative to Trump’s Gaza plan’, a plan agreed upon by some. We are given “Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi also called for a parallel plan alongside the physical reconstruction to move towards what is known as the two state solution – a Palestinian state alongside Israel. This is widely seen by Arab states, and many others, as the only lasting solution to this perpetual conflict, but it is firmly ruled out by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies.” I have reservations. In this my one issue is the setting that we are given as “Some Arab states are known to be calling for the complete dismantling of Hamas; others believe those decisions should be left up to the Palestinians. Hamas is said to have accepted it will not play a role in running Gaza but has made it clear that disarming is a red line.” I reckon it will take a few months until Iran will ‘bolster’ the response given by Hamas as some existential joke in serious form and that is when the parties accept that the given “Wealthy Gulf states appear willing to foot some of the colossal bill. But no one is ready to invest unless they are absolutely convinced buildings won’t come crashing down in another war.” This is the larger difficulty and truth of the matter. We are given “It glosses over the issue of what role, if any, Hamas, will play. There is a vague reference to the “obstacle” of militant groups and said this issue would be resolved if the causes of the conflict with Israel were removed.” Their is never going to be a ‘peace’ setting with Israel. That is the larger problem. And the others (the Arab states) see that this is the larger setting that will require setting. We are given that “Egypt had produced a detailed blueprint, with a 91-page glossy document including images of leafy neighbourhoods and grand public buildings, to counter a US scheme labelled as a “Middle East Riviera” which shocked the Arab world and beyond.” But that merely looks nice. Gaza could have looked that way decades ago, if not the issue of Hamas was given and that will never seize. It will take a little whilst until Hamas is regrouped and when Iran comes with the likely ‘accusation that Hamas has become a flaccid loser to Israel’ and Hamas suddenly gets a new incentive of weapons and missiles the whole thing starts again. I personally believe that neither this plan and the ruffled plan of President Trump would ever have worked. Iran does anything to ‘remain’ islamic relevant (which is a version where Iran and not Saudi Arabia and the UAE are at the head of the Islamic table, that is the primary concern for Iran and they will play the three terrorist teams (Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi forces) to progress ‘their’ view on what should be. So this 91 paged plan seems nice for Palestine, but they are the tools of Iran, all Palestinians are. That is the over-sounding problem.
We might want to digress with ‘it could work’ and what do the Palestinians want, but this game has been played close to a near century setting, going all the way back to 1936. A setting that is 89 years old. And if we get to the nitty gritty part of this. The British wanted a solution for the decades of murder and lynching they were facing by jewish mobs getting back at collaborators and traitors all over Europe and Germany. That was the largest fear England and Western Europe faced in the time of 1944-1960. I personally believe that this was the push for the State of Israel. I am not debating that it was the right thing to do and Jews had that part of the middle east (actually more than that) and now we see the latest view and it is all upbeat and we are eager to accept it because it is an Arab plan, making realising this more likely than any other plan (including any plan that President Trump hands the world) and now the game changes for the next aggressive action of Hamas will place the Islamic world against them, it will not matter for Iran as I personally see it, because any plan that decreases the hold they want over the Middle East will be directly rejected and soon terrorists from Houthi and Hezbollah will scream foul and ‘come to the aid’ of Hamas. That will exclude another bash in Gaza and at that point Israel will have had enough and will indiscriminately attack Gaza no longer worrying about killing the ‘innocents’. They will kill as I personally see it anything in Gaza ending to a larger extent Palestine life in Gaza and they will become the new Nazi’s (my darkest view on the matter).
As I see it this plan has merit providing Hamas is destroyed, not merely no weapons, but no Hamas is close to the only setting that is close to acceptable in this.
So whilst we accept that we are given ““The Egypt plan is now an Arab plan,” announced the secretary general of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit at the end of this hours-long gathering.” There is a reflective part in this. What did Iran have to say in the matter? They are the tinderbox for Gaza and Hamas. So whilst we might readily accept “This new plan proposes that Gaza would be run, temporarily, by a “Gaza management committee under the umbrella of the Palestinian government” comprised of qualified technocrats” it is my worry that this comes across as a death sentence to these ‘qualified technocrats’. They are either Hamas, or Hamas minded and if not Hamas will ‘accidentally’ set a new setting of Palestinian traitors (as they are likely to be named). There is one additional setting. There is a larger chance of success when a coalition of Saudi and UAE forces are placed in Gaza (temporary) to oversee safety and security until Palestinian forces are ready to take over. I don’t think it will work, but it has the benefit that Hamas would have to directly attack these forces and that might stop them. It depends on how powerful the Iranian hold over Hamas is. I actually do not know that part of the equation.
The plan is bold, the plan is better than anything there is and the plan leaves enough of Palestinians considering if Hamas was ever a solution, that last one is important for Hamas to be seen as redundant. Will it work? Like many others I hope it will but I remember 1982 Rafah (I was there), so I have concerns.
Try to have a great day.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 