Tag Archives: Chips

November 3, 2025 · 10:56

The cookie crumbles

I was having a ball this morning. I was alerted to an article that was published 11 hours ago, that makes all the difference and in particular the setting of me telling all others “Told you so” So as we start seeing the crumbling reality of a bubble coming to pass, I get to laugh at the people calling me stupid. You see, Ted’s Hardware is giving us )at https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/microsoft-ceo-says-the-company-doesnt-have-enough-electricity-to-install-all-the-ai-gpus-in-its-inventory-you-may-actually-have-a-bunch-of-chips-sitting-in-inventory-that-i-cant-plug-in) with ‘Microsoft CEO says the company doesn’t have enough electricity to install all the AI GPUs in its inventory’ so there I was (with a few critical minds) telling you all that there isn’t enough energy to fuel this setting of these data centers (like StarGate) and now Microsoft (as I personally see it, king of the losers) is confirming this setting. So do you think this (for now) multi trillion dollar company cannot pay his energy bill, or are they scraping the bottom of the energy well. And when we come to think of that, when the globally placed 200,000 people (not just Microsoft) are laid off and there is no energy to fuel their (alleged) AI drive, how far behind is the recession that ends all recessions in America? It might not be the great depression, as that gave them nearly 15 million Americans or 25% of that workforce unemployed. But the trickle effect are a lot bigger now and when that much goes overboard, the American social security will take a massive beating. 

So as I have been stating this lack of energy for months (at least months) we are given “Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said during an interview alongside OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that the problem in the AI industry is not an excess supply of compute, but rather a lack of power to accommodate all those GPUs. In fact, Nadella said that the company currently has a problem of not having enough power to plug in some of the AI GPUs the firm has in inventory. He said this on YouTube in response to Brad Gerstner, the host of Bg2 Pod, when asked whether Nadella and Altman agreed with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who said there is no chance of a compute glut in the next two to three years.” Oh, didn’t I say so a few times? Oh, yes. On January 31st 2024 I wrote “When the UAE engages with that solution, America will come up short in funds and energy. So the ‘suddenly’ setting wasn’t there. This has been out in the open for up to 4 years. And that picture goes from bad to worse soon enough.” I did so in ‘Forbes Foreboding Forecast’ which I did (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/01/31/forbes-foreboding-forecast/) so there is a record and the setting of energy shortage was visible over a year ago, I even published a few articles how Elon Musk (he has the IP) to get into that field in a few ways. You see, either you contribute directly, or you remove the overhead of energy, which Elon Musk was in a perfect stage to do.

So, when your chickens come home to roost and such agrarian settings, it becomes a party and a half. 

And then we get the BS (that stuff that makes grass grow in Texas) setting that follows with ““I think the cycles of demand and supply in this particular case, you can’t really predict, right? The point is: what’s the secular trend? The secular trend is what Sam (OpenAI CEO) said, which is, at the end of the day, because quite frankly, the biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it’s power — it’s sort of the ability to get the builds done fast enough close to power,” Satya said in the podcast. “So, if you can’t do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can’t plug in. In fact, that is my problem today. It’s not a supply issue of chips; it’s actually the fact that I don’t have warm shells to plug into.”” It is utter BS (in my personal view) as I predicted this setting over 639 days ago and I am certain that I am not that much more intelligent than that guy who controls Microsoft (aka Satya Nadella) and that is the short and sweet of it. I might be elevated in dopamines at present, but to see Satya admit to the setting I proclaimed for some time gives a rather large rise to the upcoming StarGate settings and the rather large need to give energy to that setting. It is about to become a whole new ballgame.

And as the Cookie crumbles the tech firms and the Media will all point at each others but as I see it, both were not doing they jobs. I am willing to throw this on the pile of shortcomings that courtesans have as the cater to digital dollars, but that song has been played a few times over. And I am slightly too tired (and too energised) to entertain that song. I want to play something new and perhaps a new Gaming IP might solve that for me today (likely tomorrow).

A setting we are given and as we see the admission on Ted’s Hardware, Some might actually investigate how much energy they are about to come short on. But don’t fret, these tech companies will happily take the energy due to consumers as they can afford the new prices with are likely to be over 10% higher than the previous prices. It is the simple setting of demand and supply. They already fired over 40,000 people (a global expected number), so do you think that they will stop to consider your domestic needs over the bubble they call AI, to show that they can actually fuel that setting? Gimme a break.

So Youtube has a few video on surviving life in a setting where there is no energy, if that fails ask the people in the Ukraine. They have been battling that setting for some time.

Time to enjoy my dopamine rush and have a walk in a nice walk in the 83 degree Fahrenheit shadow. Makes me think about the hidden meaning behind 451 Fahrenheit by Ray Bradbury. Wasn’t the hidden setting to stop questioning the reality of things and rely on populism? Isn’t that what we see at present? I admit that no books are being burned, but removing them from the view is as bad as burning them. Because when the media is ignoring energy needs, what does that spell in the mind of some? So have a great day and see what you can get that does not require electricity.

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October 20, 2021 · 21:51

The abacus paradox

The stage of what might never be is out there. There is a larger stage of what is about to happen and what might never happen. And I for one have no idea where to stand. You see, it is about what we read and what we do not know, or do we? To get there I need to do an old setting, a simple calculation, like you had in primary school (year 1) the stage is 34-15. Now you do it like there is no tomorrow, but then it was different. In that setting we had four minus five is not possible, so we borrow 10 then it becomes fourteen minus five making nine. Three minus one is two, that minus one is one, one and nine make nineteen, that is how we learned the simplest calculation (in 1969). It is not the math, it is the setting of borrowing one from the left making fourteen instead of four minus five. It is the borrowing part. You see, a setting hit me when I was confronted with ‘Micron to build $7 bln plant in Japan to expand DRAM production – report’ (at https://www.reuters.com/technology/micron-build-7-bln-plant-japans-hiroshima-report-2021-10-20/). In the article we see “U.S. memory chip maker Micron Technology Inc (MU.O) will build a new factory at its Japanese production site in Hiroshima at a cost of 800 billion yen ($7.0 billion), the Nikkan Kogyo newspaper reported on Wednesday.” Under most situations I merely shrug my shoulders. What do I care? Yet when my mind saw this, it raced back to several of these announcements. I believe it was 2018, it could have been 2017. Yet the stage then was that the resources needed for DRAM were limited. A finite equation on resources and the pressure was on. I personally believe that shortage was never dealt with, so it is nice to see a plant being built ‘too address shortage of DRAM’, but if there is still a shortage for manufacturing the problem merely shifts, it does not go away. TechRadar gave us in April “the company wants to optimise the use of its limited supply of silicon”, as one source gives us in May “Demand is much higher for all types of silicone products than one year ago. Demand started to increase in 4Q 2020 as global economies opened. Even when parts of the world were hit with second and third waves of Covid, economies did not shut down as they did in 1Q and 2Q 2020. As of today, demand is the same or slightly higher than prior to the pandemic”, this is not enough. You see it is one of the most common elements in the world, so we should not run out, but the mining and acquiring of it comes with health risks and there lies the rub. Forbes also gives us “China has called chip independence a top national priority in its latest five-year plan, while U.S. President Joe Biden has vowed to build a secure American supply chain by reviving domestic manufacturing. Even the European Union is mulling measures to make its own chips. But success is anything but assured.” There we also see more. The article (at https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-chip-production-why-hard-to-make-semiconductors/) gives us a lot to think about and if it isn’t the $7,000,000,000 they expect to spend, it is nothing against getting the right people, as such it could be seen as a severn billion dollar long-shot. Yet the stage of getting the Silica Dioxide has not been reached yet. The article also shows us “Building an entry-level factory that produces 50,000 wafers per month costs about $15 billion. Most of this is spent on specialised equipment—a market that exceeded $60 billion in sales for the first time in 2020.” So exactly how does one save on a plant that is already 8 billion short in month one? The numbers make no sense. Now, it is perfectly possible that they are two different plants, but the stage of 7 billion is weird all whilst several plants are being build and there is still a need for Silica Dioxide for the wafers. 

Now, I could be very wrong here, and that might be the case, but consider that 2020 gave us ‘TSMC to build advanced chip plant in southern Taiwan’ (May 2021), ‘Bosch opens Dresden chip plant as Europe aims for independence from Asia’ (Jun 2021), and let that not misdirect you, there are hundreds of plants, a massive amount of them in China, the stage becomes not merely who creates the chip, but who will have the plant to mine and create the required Silica Dioxide. It could be another stage for Saudi Arabia as sand is something they have in abundance, but to get one into the other takes time and takes the right secure machines as well as a few other skills. When this implodes (a not unlikely setting) the one who HAS the Silica Dioxide has an advantage. China claimed to be independent at present, most others cannot make that claim. China produces 64% of all silicon on the planet and the US pissed them off. Almost 10% is in Russia that leaves a lot less for the rest of the planet, so when I see the stage of two plants being build, I merely wonder where they get their source materials. The US at present creates less than 5% of all Silicon and the UK even less (number unknown to me). So when we see the larger stage and we look for Mineral Commodity Summaries we might learn that there are a few more kinks in those cables. Yes, I am willing to accept that they MIGHT solve those. Yet when was the last time you made a long-shot using billions on the word ‘MIGHT’? 

In all this I might be the one wrong here, but when you see three of these plants being made within a year and you realise the cost involved and there is a stage where the required resources for manufacturing are in many places, yet the bulk is in two places that certain politicians cannot reach. How does that investment sound to you?

I wouldn’t bet my stove on that risk, let alone a house (or apartment) but they are willing to bet the bank, I wonder what optional short term benefits they get before these tactical deciders seemingly run off with a large bonus to a beach far, far away. 

P.S. WordPress is still not fixing the colour issue.

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