Setting the stage

The Ukrainian escalation is slowly seeing some events, but not in a good way. We have seen several speeches as well as actions against certain heavy weight big wigs in-crowd at the Kremlin. Will these actions hold weight? Time will tell. I went over several facts in the blog article ‘Strongarm, Intimidate, Terrorise‘ which I published on March 18th. I also made a coalition mention in my blog article ‘Foreign and Domestic‘ on September 12th 2013, where I stated at the very end “that view might partially depend on the steps the growing New World Order coalition of Russia, China and India will take“. In the last two days we saw the following events.

1. India, Russia to sign deal for anti-tank ammunition (source: The Indian Express, et al) for $2.4B.
2. Crimea Crisis Pushes Russian Energy to China from Europe (source: Bloomberg) for $350B.
3. Private Chinese firm to buy 100 regional Sukhoi jets (source: Reuters, et al) for $3.5B.
4. ONGC, Russia’s Rosneft may join forces on oil flows (source: Reuters).

This is just in the last two days. So, yes, we might think that we are putting economic pressure on Putin, but are we?
The last mention is that if we persist, there is every chance that the cheaper gas meant for Europe could be redirected to the Indian consumer. That is exactly the fear I voiced in the story involving the Crimea (Strongarm, Intimidate, Terrorise). The Reuters article also states “Rosneft said it had also agreed with ONGC they may join forces in Rosneft’s yet-to-be built liquefied natural gas plant in the far east of Russia to the benefit of Indian consumers”, which implies that Russia will get additional Dineros (aka loads of money) to build that plant, or at least parts of it.
Europe basically has agreed to a spitting contest which could cost them. There are still moral sides to consider, both sides states that they are correct and Crimean’s who saw a loss of income for thousands of households and desperately tried to save them to remain with Russia. The Ukrainian top really did not think that part through (as I see it). Did they think that forcing Russia to Novorossiysk, leaving the Crimea without one of their biggest consumers would not have an impact? I still have questions on the legality of the ‘transfer’ from Ukraine to Russia of the Crimea region, but I do not have a proper view on the legitimacy of the referendum as such (from a pure legal point). The fact that this is what the Crimea people themselves want (for a massive part) is largely ignored by the press. I will state that the NOS at least tried to talk to a few of these people and many wanted to return to their Russian past (they were also very assertive in not letting others talk on their Ukrainian view).
So what will happen next? Let’s face it, 4 deals do not make for a Chinese, Indian and Russian summer party, but these are massive deals and this shows that the coalition growth I expected is now showing more rapid growth, likely because of the Ukrainian events. For me, I am a business man and as such, I have downloaded the Sukhoi S-100 PDF’s and see if I can start a trainings company to train the Chinese crews on using the flight and navigation instruments of the Sukhoi S-100 (just me trying to get creative). 100 planes mean at least 400 crews, which is 800 pilots and 400 engineers, so 1200 prospective trainees to train. At $750 a day, I could be employed for at least 3 years. So that might be an option as life in Sydney is pretty expensive. People might snipe at this thought, but consider the ego contest we see growing in west versus east. There is every indication that energy prices are likely to rise by unacceptable amounts soon enough. We see that governments are more and more selling off their healthcare and other services to meet budgets, which means more costs for the consumer soon enough. A step by the way for which a government cannot get faulted, but we the consumer still get to pay the bill.
As unemployment rates are still growing to the extent it does, we will have to look at alternatives. If we are willing to work hard, then it is not the worst idea to consider Russian companies like Sukhoi and Chinese companies like Huawei. The next wave is for those who are willing to put in the hours and as several businesses want to grow into several domestic markets, which they will one way or the other.
So getting out there and set the wave so you can be there at the beginning and get to the higher level of the pyramid when it grows above the others is never a bad idea.
Should you get questioned on basis of morality of choice then consider the powerbrokers of Wall Street who got millions after the 2008 crash, The events around Silvio Berlusconi (not the intimate ones), Karolos Papoulias, President of Greece who was in office when the Goldman Sachs creative accounting event was discovered. It is not the question whether he knew what was going on, as president the Euro will stop at his desk in the end. The Finance ministers over that period were Georgios Alogoskoufis, Yannis Papathanasiou and Giorgos Papakonstantinou. Giorgos Papakonstantinou was the person revealing what had happened before he took the office and negotiated the initial 110 billion Euro loan, which makes his acts the one of high moral fibre. The list goes on and on and on. So, consider that many high elected holier than thou politicians have often taken the coin road as this was not illegal or criminal, it is just the cost of doing business. When it comes to businesses there are even more questions. When we see the bad deal the people at Boeing got, as reported by several media outlets in January 2014 as well as the technical issues we see popping up with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner. We have been looking at American companies for too long, perhaps it is time to look at areas where the runner up is hungry to become the biggest one, as they could be the source of your next good meal. So several elements are slowly setting the economic stage for 2014 and 2015.
If your livelihood is in jeopardy, where will you look next?



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Filed under Finance, Law, Military, Politics

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